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2021 CFB Polls/Rankings

LTtxfan

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satyanash
satyanash

This is from an account that routinely shits on us, lol.  

Paul Wesley
Paul Wesley

This is about the time each season where the preseason rankings are having waaaaaay too much influence.  Most teams have played 5 games (over 40 percent of their games), and we have a reasonable amoun

Duke Silver
Duke Silver

Aggy there to give Bama a top 5 win. 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32699

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, texifornia said:

Bill Connolly's SP+ rankings are back! And paywalled because all nice internet things have been segmented away into sad little walled gardens. Anyone got ESPN+?

 

Overall SP+ Rankings

TEAM
RATING OFFENSE DEFENSE
1. Alabama 31.7 44.8 (3) 13.1 (3)
2. Clemson 28.6 41.9 (5) 13.3 (4)
3. Oklahoma 28.6 46.5 (2) 17.9 (15)
4. Ohio St. 26.5 46.6 (1) 20.0 (27)
5. Georgia 25.4 38.8 (16) 13.4 (5)
6. Wisconsin 22.4 34.9 (32) 12.4 (2)
7. Iowa St. 22.0 41.0 (7) 19.0 (22)
8. Miami 21.8 39.0 (15) 17.1 (11)
9. Texas A&M 21.6 36.7 (21) 15.1 (6)
10. Penn St. 21.2 36.4 (22) 15.2 (7)
11. N. Carolina 21.0 44.4 (4) 23.4 (49)
12. Florida 20.7 41.7 (6) 21.0 (35)
13. Washington 20.2 39.7 (11) 19.5 (25)
14. USC 19.7 40.4 (9) 20.7 (33)
15. Oregon 19.0 38.0 (19) 19.0 (21)
16. Iowa 18.4 30.6 (56) 12.1 (1)
17. Michigan 18.3 35.4 (28) 17.1 (10)
18. Notre Dame 17.1 35.4 (27) 18.3 (18)
19. Cincinnati 17.0 33.6 (40) 16.5 (9)
20. Texas 16.7 38.2 (17) 21.5 (38)
21. Utah 16.7 34.3 (35) 17.6 (14)
22. Arizona St. 16.3 35.2 (29) 18.9 (20)
23. Auburn 15.7 34.0 (38) 18.3 (19)
24. Minnesota 15.5 39.0 (14) 23.5 (50)
25. Ole Miss 15.1 40.6 (8) 25.5 (59)
26. LSU 14.6 36.3 (23) 21.7 (39)
27. Oklahoma St. 14.1 31.5 (53) 17.4 (13)
28. Indiana 13.8 34.5 (33) 20.7 (32)
29. UCLA 13.3 40.1 (10) 26.7 (68)
30. Louisiana 13.0 35.1 (30) 22.2 (42)
31. BYU 12.9 36.1 (24) 23.1 (47)
32. Nebraska 12.4 32.7 (46) 20.2 (29)
33. Va. Tech 11.8 35.5 (26) 23.7 (51)
34. UCF 11.5 39.5 (12) 28.0 (79)
35. TCU 11.2 30.2 (59) 19.0 (23)
36. App. St. 10.8 30.7 (55) 20.0 (26)
37. Coastal Caro. 10.6 37.6 (20) 27.1 (71)
38. Maryland 9.2 31.3 (54) 22.1 (41)
39. Boise St. 8.9 32.7 (45) 23.8 (52)
40. Pittsburgh 8.5 28.7 (72) 20.2 (28)
41. Tennessee 8.3 28.8 (70) 20.5 (31)
42. Louisville 8.2 38.2 (18) 30.0 (95)
43. W. Virginia 8.2 29.0 (68) 20.8 (34)
44. Miss. St. 8.1 28.5 (73) 20.4 (30)
45. Wash. St. 7.9 39.1 (13) 31.1 (101)
46. NC St. 7.8 29.5 (64) 21.7 (40)
47. Memphis 7.7 29.1 (66) 21.3 (37)
48. Arkansas 7.7 29.8 (61) 22.2 (43)
49. Baylor 7.0 25.0 (91) 18.0 (16)
50. Florida St. 6.7 33.4 (41) 26.7 (69)
51. Michigan St. 6.6 24.8 (92) 18.2 (17)
52. Purdue 6.1 35.0 (31) 28.9 (91)
53. California 6.0 31.7 (51) 25.6 (60)
54. Liberty 5.8 34.0 (37) 28.2 (81)
55. Tulane 5.8 34.1 (36) 28.3 (85)
56. Virginia 5.8 32.5 (47) 26.6 (67)
57. SMU 5.4 32.9 (43) 27.5 (74)
58. Kentucky 5.1 27.7 (81) 22.6 (45)
59. Missouri 5.0 28.8 (71) 23.8 (53)
60. Boston Coll. 4.6 36.0 (25) 31.3 (103)
61. Kansas St. 4.0 31.5 (52) 27.5 (76)
62. Ga. Tech 4.0 28.4 (74) 24.4 (55)
63. Houston 3.7 29.5 (65) 25.8 (61)
64. Stanford 3.3 32.3 (48) 29.1 (92)
65. Troy 2.8 27.3 (83) 24.5 (56)
66. Toledo 2.7 29.0 (69) 26.3 (66)
67. Nevada 2.6 29.8 (63) 27.2 (72)
68. UAB 2.5 21.7 (109) 19.2 (24)
69. Colorado 2.3 26.9 (84) 24.6 (57)
70. Texas Tech 2.3 30.4 (58) 28.1 (80)
71. Tulsa 2.2 24.5 (93) 22.3 (44)
72. WMU 1.8 32.8 (44) 31.0 (99)
73. SDSU 1.8 18.2 (122) 16.4 (8)
74. Wake Forest 1.6 29.0 (67) 27.4 (73)
75. FAU 1.1 24.4 (94) 23.3 (48)
76. Northwestern 1.0 18.1 (123) 17.2 (12)
77. Wyoming 0.9 22.2 (104) 21.3 (36)
78. Oregon St. 0.6 34.4 (34) 33.8 (114)
79. Georgia St. 0.5 33.0 (42) 32.5 (106)
80. Marshall 0.1 22.9 (102) 22.8 (46)
81. Illinois -0.2 28.0 (77) 28.3 (83)
82. Fresno St. -0.5 32.0 (50) 32.5 (107)
83. Rutgers -0.7 25.2 (90) 25.9 (63)
84. SJSU -0.8 27.8 (78) 28.7 (89)
85. Ohio -1.2 30.5 (57) 31.7 (104)
86. Ball St. -1.3 29.8 (62) 31.1 (100)
87. Army -1.3 23.0 (100) 24.3 (54)
88. Buffalo -1.5 26.5 (88) 27.9 (78)
89. S. Carolina -1.5 26.8 (86) 28.3 (84)
90. CMU -2.0 26.6 (87) 28.6 (88)
91. UTSA -2.2 27.5 (82) 29.8 (94)
92. Ga. Southern -2.5 23.4 (98) 25.9 (62)
93. ECU -3.0 28.2 (76) 31.2 (102)
94. Colorado St. -3.1 22.0 (105) 25.1 (58)
95. Air Force -3.1 23.7 (97) 26.8 (70)
96. Arizona -4.9 28.3 (75) 33.2 (111)
97. Hawai'i -5.3 27.8 (80) 33.0 (108)
98. Arkansas St. -5.6 29.9 (60) 35.5 (117)
99. USF -5.8 21.7 (110) 27.5 (75)
100. EMU -5.8 33.7 (39) 39.6 (125)
101. Miami-OH -5.9 24.4 (95) 30.3 (98)
102. Syracuse -6.0 21.8 (108) 27.8 (77)
103. Kent St. -6.8 32.0 (49) 38.8 (124)
104. So. Miss -7.0 21.3 (111) 28.3 (86)
105. Temple -7.4 21.9 (106) 29.4 (93)
106. Vanderbilt -7.8 22.3 (103) 30.1 (96)
107. WKU -8.3 17.8 (124) 26.1 (64)
108. Duke -8.3 19.9 (116) 28.2 (82)
109. N. Texas -8.8 26.8 (85) 35.6 (118)
110. FIU -9.0 19.4 (118) 28.5 (87)
111. MTSU -9.5 23.0 (101) 32.4 (105)
112. Navy -9.6 19.2 (119) 28.9 (90)
113. Rice -10.5 15.6 (127) 26.1 (65)
114. Utah St. -10.8 23.0 (99) 33.8 (113)
115. La. Tech -11.2 21.9 (107) 33.1 (109)
116. NIU -12.0 18.2 (121) 30.2 (97)
117. Charlotte -12.5 27.8 (79) 40.3 (126)
118. Texas St. -13.0 25.6 (89) 38.6 (123)
119. Kansas -13.2 21.2 (112) 34.4 (115)
120. S. Alabama -13.4 19.7 (117) 33.1 (110)
121. New Mexico -13.6 23.8 (96) 37.4 (121)
122. UNLV -15.7 20.9 (114) 36.5 (120)
123. UL-Monroe -17.0 20.8 (115) 37.8 (122)
124. Akron -17.9 17.2 (126) 35.1 (116)
125. UTEP -19.7 21.0 (113) 40.6 (128)
126. BGSU -20.1 13.3 (128) 33.5 (112)
127. UConn -23.1 17.3 (125) 40.3 (127)
128. ODU -24.6 11.2 (130) 35.8 (119)
129. UMass -26.2 18.2 (120) 44.4 (130)
130. NMSU -31.5 12.2 (129) 43.8 (129)
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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3435

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I'll say it. We are being vastly underrated.  Good defense has most starters back and returning experience at QB.  Skill position talent is always there. We're like the 4th pick in the league after OU, ISU and Texas. 

This is the exact kind of year when Gundy rips off a 10+ win season.  We'll still lose to OU, of course. But still I'd take the over on us being on the fringe of the top 25.

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10911

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Overall SP+ Rankings

TEAM
RATING OFFENSE DEFENSE
1. Alabama 31.7 44.8 (3) 13.1 (3)
2. Clemson 28.6 41.9 (5) 13.3 (4)
3. Oklahoma 28.6 46.5 (2) 17.9 (15)
4. Ohio St. 26.5 46.6 (1) 20.0 (27)
5. Georgia 25.4 38.8 (16) 13.4 (5)
6. Wisconsin 22.4 34.9 (32) 12.4 (2)
7. Iowa St. 22.0 41.0 (7) 19.0 (22)
8. Miami 21.8 39.0 (15) 17.1 (11)
9. Texas A&M 21.6 36.7 (21) 15.1 (6)
10. Penn St. 21.2 36.4 (22) 15.2 (7)
11. N. Carolina 21.0 44.4 (4) 23.4 (49)
12. Florida 20.7 41.7 (6) 21.0 (35)
13. Washington 20.2 39.7 (11) 19.5 (25)
14. USC 19.7 40.4 (9) 20.7 (33)
15. Oregon 19.0 38.0 (19) 19.0 (21)
16. Iowa 18.4 30.6 (56) 12.1 (1)
17. Michigan 18.3 35.4 (28) 17.1 (10)
18. Notre Dame 17.1 35.4 (27) 18.3 (18)
19. Cincinnati 17.0 33.6 (40) 16.5 (9)
20. Texas 16.7 38.2 (17) 21.5 (38)
21. Utah 16.7 34.3 (35) 17.6 (14)
22. Arizona St. 16.3 35.2 (29) 18.9 (20)
23. Auburn 15.7 34.0 (38) 18.3 (19)
24. Minnesota 15.5 39.0 (14) 23.5 (50)
25. Ole Miss 15.1 40.6 (8) 25.5 (59)
26. LSU 14.6 36.3 (23) 21.7 (39)
27. Oklahoma St. 14.1 31.5 (53) 17.4 (13)
28. Indiana 13.8 34.5 (33) 20.7 (32)
29. UCLA 13.3 40.1 (10) 26.7 (68)
30. Louisiana 13.0 35.1 (30) 22.2 (42)
31. BYU 12.9 36.1 (24) 23.1 (47)
32. Nebraska 12.4 32.7 (46) 20.2 (29)
33. Va. Tech 11.8 35.5 (26) 23.7 (51)
34. UCF 11.5 39.5 (12) 28.0 (79)
35. TCU 11.2 30.2 (59) 19.0 (23)
36. App. St. 10.8 30.7 (55) 20.0 (26)
37. Coastal Caro. 10.6 37.6 (20) 27.1 (71)
38. Maryland 9.2 31.3 (54) 22.1 (41)
39. Boise St. 8.9 32.7 (45) 23.8 (52)
40. Pittsburgh 8.5 28.7 (72) 20.2 (28)
41. Tennessee 8.3 28.8 (70) 20.5 (31)
42. Louisville 8.2 38.2 (18) 30.0 (95)
43. W. Virginia 8.2 29.0 (68) 20.8 (34)
44. Miss. St. 8.1 28.5 (73) 20.4 (30)
45. Wash. St. 7.9 39.1 (13) 31.1 (101)
46. NC St. 7.8 29.5 (64) 21.7 (40)
47. Memphis 7.7 29.1 (66) 21.3 (37)
48. Arkansas 7.7 29.8 (61) 22.2 (43)
49. Baylor 7.0 25.0 (91) 18.0 (16)
50. Florida St. 6.7 33.4 (41) 26.7 (69)
51. Michigan St. 6.6 24.8 (92) 18.2 (17)
52. Purdue 6.1 35.0 (31) 28.9 (91)
53. California 6.0 31.7 (51) 25.6 (60)
54. Liberty 5.8 34.0 (37) 28.2 (81)
55. Tulane 5.8 34.1 (36) 28.3 (85)
56. Virginia 5.8 32.5 (47) 26.6 (67)
57. SMU 5.4 32.9 (43) 27.5 (74)
58. Kentucky 5.1 27.7 (81) 22.6 (45)
59. Missouri 5.0 28.8 (71) 23.8 (53)
60. Boston Coll. 4.6 36.0 (25) 31.3 (103)
61. Kansas St. 4.0 31.5 (52) 27.5 (76)
62. Ga. Tech 4.0 28.4 (74) 24.4 (55)
63. Houston 3.7 29.5 (65) 25.8 (61)
64. Stanford 3.3 32.3 (48) 29.1 (92)
65. Troy 2.8 27.3 (83) 24.5 (56)
66. Toledo 2.7 29.0 (69) 26.3 (66)
67. Nevada 2.6 29.8 (63) 27.2 (72)
68. UAB 2.5 21.7 (109) 19.2 (24)
69. Colorado 2.3 26.9 (84) 24.6 (57)
70. Texas Tech 2.3 30.4 (58) 28.1 (80)
71. Tulsa 2.2 24.5 (93) 22.3 (44)
72. WMU 1.8 32.8 (44) 31.0 (99)
73. SDSU 1.8 18.2 (122) 16.4 (8)
74. Wake Forest 1.6 29.0 (67) 27.4 (73)
75. FAU 1.1 24.4 (94) 23.3 (48)
76. Northwestern 1.0 18.1 (123) 17.2 (12)
77. Wyoming 0.9 22.2 (104) 21.3 (36)
78. Oregon St. 0.6 34.4 (34) 33.8 (114)
79. Georgia St. 0.5 33.0 (42) 32.5 (106)
80. Marshall 0.1 22.9 (102) 22.8 (46)
81. Illinois -0.2 28.0 (77) 28.3 (83)
82. Fresno St. -0.5 32.0 (50) 32.5 (107)
83. Rutgers -0.7 25.2 (90) 25.9 (63)
84. SJSU -0.8 27.8 (78) 28.7 (89)
85. Ohio -1.2 30.5 (57) 31.7 (104)
86. Ball St. -1.3 29.8 (62) 31.1 (100)
87. Army -1.3 23.0 (100) 24.3 (54)
88. Buffalo -1.5 26.5 (88) 27.9 (78)
89. S. Carolina -1.5 26.8 (86) 28.3 (84)
90. CMU -2.0 26.6 (87) 28.6 (88)
91. UTSA -2.2 27.5 (82) 29.8 (94)
92. Ga. Southern -2.5 23.4 (98) 25.9 (62)
93. ECU -3.0 28.2 (76) 31.2 (102)
94. Colorado St. -3.1 22.0 (105) 25.1 (58)
95. Air Force -3.1 23.7 (97) 26.8 (70)
96. Arizona -4.9 28.3 (75) 33.2 (111)
97. Hawai'i -5.3 27.8 (80) 33.0 (108)
98. Arkansas St. -5.6 29.9 (60) 35.5 (117)
99. USF -5.8 21.7 (110) 27.5 (75)
100. EMU -5.8 33.7 (39) 39.6 (125)
101. Miami-OH -5.9 24.4 (95) 30.3 (98)
102. Syracuse -6.0 21.8 (108) 27.8 (77)
103. Kent St. -6.8 32.0 (49) 38.8 (124)
104. So. Miss -7.0 21.3 (111) 28.3 (86)
105. Temple -7.4 21.9 (106) 29.4 (93)
106. Vanderbilt -7.8 22.3 (103) 30.1 (96)
107. WKU -8.3 17.8 (124) 26.1 (64)
108. Duke -8.3 19.9 (116) 28.2 (82)
109. N. Texas -8.8 26.8 (85) 35.6 (118)
110. FIU -9.0 19.4 (118) 28.5 (87)
111. MTSU -9.5 23.0 (101) 32.4 (105)
112. Navy -9.6 19.2 (119) 28.9 (90)
113. Rice -10.5 15.6 (127) 26.1 (65)
114. Utah St. -10.8 23.0 (99) 33.8 (113)
115. La. Tech -11.2 21.9 (107) 33.1 (109)
116. NIU -12.0 18.2 (121) 30.2 (97)
117. Charlotte -12.5 27.8 (79) 40.3 (126)
118. Texas St. -13.0 25.6 (89) 38.6 (123)
119. Kansas -13.2 21.2 (112) 34.4 (115)
120. S. Alabama -13.4 19.7 (117) 33.1 (110)
121. New Mexico -13.6 23.8 (96) 37.4 (121)
122. UNLV -15.7 20.9 (114) 36.5 (120)
123. UL-Monroe -17.0 20.8 (115) 37.8 (122)
124. Akron -17.9 17.2 (126) 35.1 (116)
125. UTEP -19.7 21.0 (113) 40.6 (128)
126. BGSU -20.1 13.3 (128) 33.5 (112)
127. UConn -23.1 17.3 (125) 40.3 (127)
128. ODU -24.6 11.2 (130) 35.8 (119)
129. UMass -26.2 18.2 (120) 44.4 (130)
130. NMSU -31.5 12.2 (129) 43.8 (129)

Bullshit list, UNLV should be 121.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 48962

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Posted

AP is out...

2021 Preseason AP Top 25

1. Alabama (47)
2. Oklahoma (6)
3. Clemson (6)
4. Ohio State (1)
5. Georgia (3)
6. Texas A&M
7. Iowa State
8. Cincinnati
9. Notre Dame
10. North Carolina
11. Oregon
12. Wisconsin
13. Florida
14. Miami (FL)
15. USC
16. LSU
17. Indiana
18. Iowa
19. Penn State
20. Washington
21. Texas
22. Coastal Carolina
23. Louisiana
24. Utah
25. Arizona State 

Others receiving votes: Oklahoma State (107); Ole Miss (106); TCU (40), Liberty (36), Auburn (32), NC State (14), Michigan (12), Northwestern (8), Boise State (7), Nevada (7), BYU (6), Ball State (6), Houston (5), Boston College (5), UCF (5), West Virginia (3), UAB (2), Army (2), UCLA (2) 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ap-top-25-poll-reactions-lsu-underrated-iowa-state-overrated-in-first-college-football-rankings/

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Ebeye

Ebeye 116

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Posted

Matt Brown from The Athletic agrees with you:  

"Given the current lack of parity in the sport, it feels safer than ever to say the national champion will be one of Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia and Texas A&M — and likely one of the first five."

 

Spoiler

 

Alabama is No. 1 but I voted for Georgia, and what the preseason AP Top 25 predicts about the season: Behind the Ballot

COLUMBIA, SC - NOVEMBER 28: JT Daniels #18 of the Georgia Bulldogs hands the ball off to Zamir White #3 against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Williams-Brice Stadium on November 28, 2020 in Columbia, South Carolina. (Photo by Tony Walsh/Collegiate Images/Getty Images)
By Matt Brown  Aug 16, 2021comment-icon@2x.png 94  save-icon@2x.png

The preseason AP Top 25 for the 2021 college football season somehow feels familiar to a fault while also being fresh and unusual in places.

Alabama is No. 1? Of course. The Crimson Tide, coming off yet another national championship, have been atop the preseason AP poll eight times now, including six under Nick Saban, and this is their record-shattering 14th consecutive season making a No. 1 appearance at any point. But Iowa State at No. 7? This is the first time the Cyclones have opened higher than 20th.

Oklahoma, Clemson and Ohio State join Alabama in the top four? Of course. Those four have combined to take up 20 of the 28 bids to the College Football Playoff so far. But Cincinnati and North Carolina are also in the top 10? The Bearcats’ only previous preseason ranking was No. 20 a year ago, and the Tar Heels haven’t started or finished a season in the top 10 since 1997.

Then there’s Indiana, ranked in the preseason for the first time since 1969.

Chalk still mostly rules the day, but I made an attempt to shake things up slightly at the top. I was one of 16 voters who decided against voting Alabama and dared to drop the Crimson Tide to No. 3, behind Georgia and Oklahoma on my ballot.

Preseason AP Top 25 vs. my ballot
TEAM AP RANK MY VOTE DIFF.
1
3
-2
2
2
0
3
4
-1
4
5
-1
5
1
4
6
6
0
7
7
0
8
13
-5
9
12
-3
10
11
-1
11
8
3
12
15
-3
13
14
-1
14
9
5
team-logo-252-50x50.pngUSC
15
10
5
team-logo-267-50x50.pngLSU
16
19
-3
17
24
-7
18
21
-3
19
18
1
20
17
3
21
16
5
22
22
0
23
NR
Out
24
20
4
25
NR
Out
team-logo-187-50x50.pngTCU
NR
23
In
NR
25
In

So what does the preseason poll say about how the 2021 season will play out? Here are some bold and not-so-bold predictions based on past data.

National championship

The national champion will come from the top six. Since preseason No. 22 Auburn won the title in 2010, only one of the past nine national champions — No. 11 Florida State in 2013 — has come from outside the preseason top six. The only national champion in the Playoff era to come from outside the top five was No. 6 LSU in 2019. In the past 50 seasons, the AP national champion has started in the top two 18 times and the top six 31 times. It’s come from outside the top 10 on 10 occasions — though only two of the past 18.

ap-champs.png

Given the current lack of parity in the sport, it feels safer than ever to say the national champion will be one of Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia and Texas A&M — and likely one of the first five.

Alabama probably won’t win the national title. Though eight of the past 50 AP champions have been the preseason No. 1, the AP poll has correctly predicted the champion only once in the past 16 seasons, when Alabama failed to win the SEC West in 2017 but prevailed in the Playoff. Only three times has a school won the national championship one year, then started No. 1 and finished No. 1 in the AP poll the next year (2004 USC, 1975 Oklahoma, 1956 Oklahoma). It’s difficult to repeat, and it’s difficult to prove voters right and go wire-to-wire. Doing both is even rarer.

Alabama and Oklahoma are safe bets to be contenders. Sure, Alabama may not win the title, but there’s little doubt that it will be one of the best teams in the country. Since the poll expanded to 25 teams in 1989, only one preseason No. 1 has finished unranked (2012 USC), while 28 of 32 have finished in the top 10, with 22 of the 32 in the top five. Take out 2012 USC, and the other 31 preseason No. 1 teams have had an average finish of 4.7.

Alabama will have a great season; it probably won’t win the national championship. Oklahoma can be similarly confident in having a great season. A preseason top-two team has not finished worse than eighth in the CFP era, and 1994 Notre Dame is the only preseason No. 2 team to finish unranked since 1989, with 27 of 32 No. 2s finishing in the top 10 and 20 in the top five.

Who will win the national title? My vote goes to Georgia, which is No. 1 on my ballot and No. 5 in the actual poll (two other voters tabbed the Bulldogs No. 1). Unlike the four 2020 Playoff teams, the Bulldogs have a returning starter quarterback in JT Daniels, a blue-chip recruit who showed enough potential down the stretch to make Georgia a plausible preseason No. 1 pick. The Bulldogs are in Year 2 of a revamped offense under Todd Monken, and they’ve recruited better than anyone, with the best average finish in the 247Sports Composite over the past four years — even slightly ahead of Alabama. Actually beating Alabama on the field is another matter, given that no former Saban assistant has done so as head coach, but Georgia has the talent across the board to beat anyone, giving it a chance to win its first national championship since 1980.

I also thought hard about Oklahoma, which returns a rising star quarterback in Spencer Rattler and has its most complete roster in years thanks to improvement on defense. With so much QB turnover among the top teams, this may be Oklahoma’s best chance yet in the Playoff era.

College Football Playoff

Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson and Ohio State won’t all make the Playoff. In fact, two of Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson and Ohio State probably won’t make the Playoff. They’re all chalk picks, but straight chalk like that never happens, even if these dominant forces in their respective conferences have created an era with a historically low amount of parity. Last year was only the second time in 23 seasons of the BCS/CFP that three of the four teams in the preseason AP top four finished the regular season in the top four of the BCS/CFP rankings. All four of the preseason top four have never done so.

On average, 1.52 of the preseason AP top four have finished in the top four of the BCS/CFP, with that average increasing to 2.0 since the start of the Playoff in 2014.

Who will make the Playoff? My preseason ballot puts me firmly in the camp of Georgia and Oklahoma making the Playoff. It’s possible Alabama could give the SEC two CFP teams, but I’d bet on one of Clemson and Ohio State making it, plus one team from farther back. Six Playoff teams have started 10th or worse in the AP poll. Since 1998, an average of 1.26 teams have come from outside the top 10 in the preseason to inside the top four of the BCS/CFP at the end of the regular season, including two in 2015, one in 2016, one in 2017 and one in 2018, with Notre Dame coming from 10th last season.

The solid bet is that one team will make that leap. My likeliest candidate is one of the three teams that I ranked in the top 10 but the poll did not: No. 11 Oregon, which is No. 8 on my ballot. The Ducks have the most talented team in the Pac-12, and an upset win against Ohio State would give them a great chance of ending the Pac-12’s Playoff drought that dates back to Washington’s 2016 appearance.

I also ranked USC and Miami in the top 10, but I have a hard time seeing the Hurricanes beating Alabama in the opener and will maintain at least some healthy skepticism with USC, though Kedon Slovis, Drake Jackson and Drake London give the Trojans a strong foundation of talent. Beyond those teams, Washington is an interesting semi-sleeper in the Pac-12, and Penn State and Wisconsin are at least on the radar with bounce-back seasons in the Big Ten.

Top 10

At least one preseason top-10 team will finish unranked. Every preseason top-10 team has finished ranked as recently as 2019, but that’s not typical. Since 1989, at least one preseason top-10 team has finished unranked in 27 of 32 seasons, including three in both 2018 and 2020. An average of 1.63 preseason top-10 teams have finished unranked since the poll expanded to 25 teams. The preseason No. 9 team has finished unranked in four of the past seven seasons and 36.4 percent of the time since 1989. The next most common top-10 slots to plummet out of the poll: No. 10 (29 percent) and No. 8 (19.7 percent).

No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Oklahoma are surely safe, as mentioned above. Any of the bottom four teams in the top 10 are candidates to fall out of the rankings. Iowa State has more talent than ever but still has a smaller margin for error than other top teams because it doesn’t have as much depth. Cincinnati has road dates with Indiana and Notre Dame and some tricky AAC games, headlined by UCF. There’s higher upside for Cincinnati than most Group of 5 teams, but if things go sideways, an unranked finish is on the table. Notre Dame has a handful of toss-up games that put 8-4 in play, and North Carolina has to replace two 1,000-yard rushers and a 1,000-yard receiver.

One or two teams from that group will finish in the top 10, but one or two are likely to finish unranked.

About six top-10 teams will finish in the top 10. The preseason No. 10 team has finished in the top 10 in only six of the past 32 seasons, so good luck to North Carolina. No. 9 is the only other top-10 spot that has fallen out of the final top 10 more than half the time in that span. Teams ranked Nos. 11, 12, 13 and 14 (and No. 20, somewhat randomly) in the preseason have all finished in the top 10 at a higher rate than No. 10.

The preseason top five have all finished in the top 10 in each of the past two seasons, though that’s unusual. It may be hard to imagine any of the top five finishing out of the top 10, but until 2019, it hadn’t previously happened since 2001.

It’s likely that two preseason unranked teams will finish in the top 10. Since 1989, an average of 1.94 teams that were unranked in the preseason Top 25 leaped all the way into the final top 10. That number has been just one each of the past two seasons — No. 10 Northwestern in 2020 and No. 10 Minnesota in 2019 —  but at least two have done so in 23 of the past 32 seasons, including three in 2018 and as many as four in 2013.

TCU is the highest-ranked team on my ballot (23) that is unranked in the poll, so mark me down for the Horned Frogs as being among the teams with the best chance. They bring back a lot of experience, have a stellar defense and play a manageable nonconference schedule, though they travel to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. Win one of those trips, and 10-2 in the regular season with a spot in the top 10 is possible.

Top 25

An average of 15.8 preseason ranked teams have finished in the Top 25 since 1989. Typically, about 8-11 ranked teams drop out of the poll, including at least one team from the top 10 and three or four of the teams ranked from No. 21 to No. 25.

Two teams that I’ll predict fall out: Louisiana and Arizona State, neither of whom I ranked. Louisiana was a difficult cut, but it has tough road games at Texas and Liberty and I could see slight regression that leaves one Sun Belt team, Coastal Carolina, finishing ranked. And I was buying Arizona State earlier in the offseason, but the recent run of bad news has me selling Sun Devils stock, especially in a Pac-12 that may be deeper than anticipated.

ranked-finishes.png

Which means about nine preseason unranked teams will crash the Top 25.I’ve already talked about TCU, which I have ranked but sits three spots outside of the actual poll. There’s little doubt that an unranked Group of 5 team or two will make that push. Given that I took a shot with Nevada at No. 25 on the ballot, I’ll say the Wolf Pack crash the Top 25 by the end of the season behind the arm of Carson Strong and a talented supporting cast. Others to watch: Boise State is never a bad bet, the American could easily produce a second ranked team (UCF? SMU?), Boston College combines returning experience with a beatable schedule and Michigan has Top 25 talent if it can rebound from last fall’s debacle.

More AP Top 25 notes

• Before Saban arrived at Alabama, Miami boasted the longest streak of seasons with an appearance at No. 1 in the AP poll at seven from 1986 to ’92, according to College Poll Archive. Now the Crimson Tide have doubled that streak at 14 and counting. Clemson can tie the Hurricanes if it reaches No. 1 at any point this fall.

• Oklahoma (37), Alabama (30) and Ohio State (30) are the most familiar faces in the top five in the 72 seasons of the preseason AP poll. Clemson is in the top five for the eighth time (including each of the past six years), while this is actually only Georgia’s seventh preseason top-five appearance (though its fourth in a row).

• With Iowa State and Cincinnati breaking in, 63 teams have now been ranked in the preseason top 10 at least once, according to College Poll Archive. Oklahoma leads the way with 51 preseason top-10 appearances.

• After breaking the longest Power 5 final poll drought by finishing ranked for the first time since 1988, Indiana is in the preseason AP poll for the first time 1969, when it was ranked 14th. Among teams ranked in both the AP Top 25 and on my ballot, Indiana is the team I differ from other voters the most on. I have the Hoosiers 24th, compared to No. 17 in the poll. They get Iowa, Penn State and Michigan on the road while hosting Ohio State and Cincinnati, and some regression will be hard to avoid.

• Coastal Carolina and Louisiana finished ranked for the first time last season, and now they start ranked for the first time. This is the 20th season of football in the Sun Belt, and the Chanticleers and Ragin’ Cajuns are the conference’s first two teams to be ranked in the preseason poll.

• The SEC, Big Ten and Pac-12 placed five teams each in the preseason poll. They’re followed by three each from the ACC and Big 12, two from the Sun Belt, one from the American and Notre Dame, which returns to independent status.

• Michigan was ranked in the preseason poll every year but one from 1970 through 2007. This is the seventh time in the past 14 seasons that the Wolverines will start the season unranked. Nebraska was ranked in the preseason poll every year from 1970 through 2002. This is the 10th time in the past 19 seasons that the Cornhuskers will start the season unranked.

• No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 5 Georgia in Charlotte on Sept. 4 will be the fifth time in the past 25 years that two AP top-five teams meet in their opening game. It joins 2017 Alabama-Florida State, 2011 LSU-Oregon, 2004 Miami-Florida State and 1999 Penn State-Arizona. Week 1 boasts four other ranked matchups: No. 19 Penn State at No. 12 Wisconsin, No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 14 Miami, No. 23 Louisiana at No. 21 Texas and No. 17 Indiana at No. 18 Iowa.

(Photo of JT Daniels and Zamir White: Tony Walsh / Collegiate Images / Getty Images)

 

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Zeus

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On 8/10/2021 at 11:37 AM, TrashMaster G said:

New QB and 1 returning OL in a year where a lot of teams are stacked with returnees across the board.  How does that translate to #6?

You know how fun a roller coaster is when it only gets up to 14 or so? Not as fun as one that can break into the top 4!

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#16 TEXAS --  PFF 2021 Top 25 CFB Rankings

https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-2021-top-25-college-football-rankings-treash 

 

PFF 2021 Preseason Top 25 College Football Rankings 

By Anthony Treash     Aug 16, 2021

Quote

Below are the 25 programs that I feel are best equipped to enter the 2021 season. I fully expect there to be chaos that’ll drastically change these rankings with all of the uncertainty at the quarterback position for the top teams, but here is where everything stands entering Week 0.

1. OKLAHOMA SOONERS

Oklahoma has cracked a spot in the College Football Playoff four times since its inception seven years ago but has yet to earn a spot in the National Championship Game. This year could be different with the Spencer Rattler‘s return being a key reason why. The quarterback returns after earning the best single-season passing grade by a first-time starter of the PFF College era in 2020 (92.5). Rattler has a little bit of former Texas Tech Patrick Mahomes in him, both stylistically and situationally. He has an ultra-quick, effortless release to pair with jaw-dropping arm talent and elite playmaking ability on the move. The Sooners’ secondary is their biggest concern, but their pass-rush unit might just be enough to stabilize that side of the ball.

2. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

New starting quarterback Bryce Young has more pressure on him than anyone else in college football. The Bama offense has been on a tear these last couple of years, with the 2020 group producing the most successful college passing attack in the PFF College era. Alabama hasn’t generated negative expected points added (EPA) per play in a single game since the 2018-19 national title game, and it’s on Young to make sure that streak doesn’t die. Losing a consistently high performer at the quarterback position (Mac Jones) along with a Heisman-winning wide receiver (DeVonta Smith) and arguably the best play-caller in the country (Steve Sarkisian) are damaging blows.

Young has a sky-high ceiling, but can he reach it sooner rather than later? Whether Young pulls through or falls flat, Alabama still will be a competitive team thanks to their stacked roster outside of quarterback. The Crimson Tide had nine players crack one of the top 10 spots in PFF’s preseason positional rankings. For reference, the next closest team had three fewer than that.

3. CLEMSON TIGERS

There isn’t much to be concerned about with the Tigers’ defensive unit. Defensive coordinator

Brent Venables has a star-studded group that features 2020 No. 1 overall recruit Bryan Bresee and 2020 No. 7 overall recruit Myles Murphy, who were each standout performers along the defensive line as true freshmen. Clemson has ranked top three in EPA allowed in five of the seven years of the PFF College era. It’d be a surprise if they didn’t make it six of eight in 2021.

There is a little bit of concern with the offense. Primarily with the ground game, as Clemson no longer has the home run-hitter, Travis Etienne, in the backfield. He led the Tigers to the Power Five’s most efficient run game over the last three years. Dabo Swinney and Co. got a glimpse of life without Trevor Lawrence in 2020 when the No. 1 overall pick was out for a couple of games due to COVID-19. True freshman D.J. Uiagalelei took over and showed plenty to get excited about, including a cannon of a right arm. The former five-star posted an 83.6 passing grade, five big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays. There was an issue with his accuracy on sideline throws because of his mechanics. That’ll be something to monitor this fall, but the overall early returns were promising. Uiagalelei will have a quality receiving unit at his disposal with comeback injury candidates Justyn Ross and Joe Ngata leading the way.

4. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

The OSU quarterback room might be oozing potential, but the position is still a big question mark until some reps are had in an actual game. C.J. Stroud is the one who will have the first crack at trying to effectively replace Justin Fields, who was one of the best quarterbacks of the PFF College era. If Stroud can sustain the level of play that Fields brought in 2019 and 2020, then he’d join a list of outliers to produce at such a level in their first year of starting as an underclassman.

The good news is that whoever is slinging the rock for the Buckeyes will have the benefit of tapping into the best wide receiver unit in college football. Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have the chance to be a historic trio. Their secondary is shaky but similar to Oklahoma, the pass-rush unit is special enough that it may stabilize their pass defense.

5. GEORGIA BULLDOGS

Georgia might be the most physically gifted team in college football. Both sides of the ball are littered with gifted, but raw athletes. Taking quarterback out of the equation, this team could feasibly challenge Alabama for the best roster in the country. Taking quarterback into account is where the problem lies. Former five-star recruit JT Daniels is at the helm with a wealth of experience, but he's yet to produce at a quality level on a consistent basis.

Daniels began his career at USC in 2018, but he struggled mightily as a true freshman starter. His 59.9 passing grade ranked outside the top-100 among FBS quarterbacks. Daniels looked like the same player in the 2019 opener before tearing his ACL and transferring to Georgia. While he didn't see the field until Week 12 of 2020 due to both the rehab process and other players being ahead of him on the depth chart, he looked markedly better. Daniels earned a 95.0 PFF grade and made six big-time throws against Mississippi State that night, although he recorded just a 68.5 passing grade in his other three outings — the last of which was a four turnover, sub-50.0 graded performance against Cincinnati in the Peach Bowl, the only “great” defense he faced.

6. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS

North Carolina’s offense was among the most explosive in the country last season, ranking second to only Alabama in per-play offensive efficiency. The leader of that group, quarterback Sam Howell, returns for his true junior year after producing an astounding 92.3 PFF grade last year that ranked sixth in the FBS. He is, however, the lone key contributor returning from that elite offense, as their top two receivers and two-headed monster at running back were drafted this past offseason. Head coach Mack Brown came back swinging and landed a top-15 recruiting class nationally in both 2020 and 2021, giving the team some promising young talent at wide receiver, but Howell will need to be a passer that props up the players around him in 2021.

The defensive side of the ball is only going to get better for the Tar Heels. The defensive line is raw and unproven but has high-upside. The secondary is a little bit more established and returns one of the best outside corner duos in the country with Storm Duck and Tony Grimes.

7. CINCINNATI BEARCATS

Cincinnati was barely on the outside looking in at the College Football Playoff in 2020, and the Bearcats have every chance to be in the conversation again this fall despite losing a handful of key players on defense as well as coordinator Marcus Freeman. The defensive line is led by edge defender Myjai Sanders and interior defensive linemen Curtis Brooks. They also welcome back Cincinnati native Jowon Briggs. The Virginia transfer and former top-100 recruit is full of power and has all the traits to be a consistent pocket pusher. Then, in the secondary, they have one of the top Thorpe Award candidates in college football in cornerback Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner.

Ultimately, the fate of this team is in the hands of quarterback Desmond Ridder, who is a toolsy but unproven passer. He can make plenty of plays with his legs, as evidenced by his 61 runs of 10-plus yards over the last couple of years — second-most among FBS quarterbacks — but his passing ability is still in question. Ridder’s passing grade since 2019 sits at 67.7, and he has notoriously struggled to hit downfield shots. His 33.3% adjusted completion rate on 20-plus yard throws in 2020 tied for 11th-worst in the FBS. He connected on only 14 deep passes on the year, and Cincinnati came in sixth in the AAC and 60th in the FBS in explosive (15-plus yard) pass play rate (14.9%). That has to get better in 2021 when the time comes for their showdowns against Indiana and Notre Dame.

8. TEXAS A&M AGGIES

Texas A&M fell just short of the College Football Playoff in 2020 but still cracked a top-five spot in the AP poll for the first time since the Johnny Manziel era. Taking quarterback out of the conversation, the Aggies have the roster to get back to the CFP conversation in 2021. They return tight end Jalen Wydermyer and wide receiver Ainias Smith, who ranked second and 10th at their respective positions in the SEC in 2020. Their defense last season ranked third in the conference in EPA per play allowed, behind only Alabama and Georgia, and they return their seven most valuable players from that unit in terms of PFF Wins Above Average (WAA).

Still, quarterback is the most important and valuable position on the field, and Texas A&M has a lot of uncertainty at the position right now. They’ll be riding with either Haynes King (a 2020 four-star recruit) or Zach Calzada (a 2019 three-star recruit) as their starter this fall in Jimbo Fisher’s difficult-to-master offense. Together, the two signal-callers have attempted a grand total of 28 pass attempts at the college level.

9. MIAMI (FL.) HURRICANES

The Hurricanes are poised to have one of the most explosive offenses in college football thanks to quarterback D’Eriq King. He’s fresh off an elite-graded season in his first year with Miami and is set to replicate that during 2021. On 111 runs — 85 designed and 26 scrambles — King totaled 26 rushes of 10 or more yards. He produced more than 10 yards after contact on 13 of those attempts, the most at the position. The 5-foot-11, 202-pound quarterback also rarely put the ball in harm’s way, ranking No. 3 in the FBS in turnover-worthy play rate (1.7%). King did tear his ACL in The U’s final game, but he has made a speedy recovery and will be ready to roll come Week 1.

Another key area to monitor is the performance of wide receiver tandem Charleston Rambo and Mike Harley. Rambo was a big-play threat for Oklahoma in 2019 before a drop in play during 2020. Back in 2019 with Jalen Hurts at quarterback, Rambo ranked third in the Big 12 in percentage of targets to result in a 15-plus-yard gain (28.6%). As for Harley, something clicked in the middle of his senior year. From 2017 through Week 7 of last year, Harley had produced a 56.5 receiving grade, 1.14 yards per route and 19 catches of 15-plus yards. From Week 8 on in 2020, he produced an 83.6 receiving grade, 3.08 yards per route and 16 catches of 15-plus yards. There’s a lot of potential with the quartet of offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee, King, Rambo and Harley.

10. LSU TIGERS

LSU is one of the most interesting teams in college football. The offense is now true sophomore Max Johnson’s to lead after Myles Brennan broke his non-throwing arm in a fishing accident. Brennan could make a return and take over the job during the season, but it’ll be Johnson’s job to start the year. This isn’t necessarily ideal given what he displayed as a freshman last season. Johnson struggled to throw the ball vertically and just didn’t look comfortable. The good news is that he will have one of the SEC’s top pass-catching weapons at his disposal with wide receiver Kayshon Boutte.

As for the defensive side of the ball, there’s too much talent for them to be as average as they were in 2020. The unit begins with what is the best outside corner duo in the country, Derek Stingley Jr. and Eli Ricks. They have the man coverage skills to lock up any wide receiver in the country. Stingley was the highest-graded corner when playing man on the outside in 2019, and Ricks claimed that honor in 2020. Joining them this year at off-ball linebacker is transfer Mike Jones Jr., who established himself as the top coverage linebacker in the nation at Clemson.

Fortunately for LSU, the pass defenses their offense is set to face aren’t world-beaters. If Brennan can return quickly and is allowed to start again, this team will be in even better shape.

11. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH

Notre Dame’s strengths and weaknesses are pretty well-defined and similar to last season, but they are just a little bit more severe in both directions for 2021. The Irish defense was the fifth-highest-graded group in the Power Five last season, and they have every opportunity of cracking a top-10 spot nationally in 2021. Safety Kyle Hamilton, who has some of the best coverage ability of any player at the position, leads that group.

The big issue with this team is once again the passing offense, but it’s a little bit more concerning this time around. Firstly, their current crop of wide receivers leaves a lot to be desired. While they do have a rising star at tight end with Michael Mayer, they don’t return a single wide receiver who has a single-season receiving grade above 65.0 under their belt. Among all FBS programs, Notre Dame returns the third-least productive wide receiver unit from last season. That issue paired with a vertical passing challenged quarterback in Jack Coan raises major concerns for this offense’s ability to consistently create explosive pass plays.

12. INDIANA HOOSIERS

Indiana can climb back to top-10 status once again in 2021 if quarterback Michael Penix Jr. stays healthy. Penix has battled a slew of injuries throughout his college career, most recently a torn ACL that prematurely ended his 2020 campaign. When healthy, he’s one of the top quarterbacks in the country. He is second to only Fields in PFF grade among Big Ten quarterbacks over the last five years. Last year, in particular, Penix posted the highest big-time throw rate in the Power Five despite suffering through some of the worst pass-protection among that group.

13. FLORIDA GATORS

Much like they did a season ago, the Gators will enter the college football season as one of the biggest boom-or-bust programs in the country. The Gators' season will begin and end with quarterback Emory Jones, a player PFF has pegged as a breakout candidate ahead of the 2021 season. The 2018 four-star dual-threat quarterback has flashed in both facets during his limited time on the field, notably recording an 80.6 passing grade on 87 career pass attempts to pair with an 81.7 rushing grade across 76 rushing attempts.

Head coach Dan Mullen is one of the better offensive play-callers in the country, and he has a penchant for dual-threats, However, the big question is the receiving arsenal Jones can tap into. The Gators’ three most valuable non-quarterbacks on offense last season — tight end Kyle Pitts, wide receivers Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes — left for the NFL this spring.

14. USC TROJANS

USC’s offense has sky-high potential. Starting quarterback Kedon Slovis and his wide receiver room are only scratching the surface of what they can become. Slovis shattered expectations as a true freshman in 2019, earning an 80.8 passing grade and displaying precise, Joe Burrow-like accuracy, ultimately finishing second to the now-Cincinnati Bengal in accurate-pass rate on the year. At the same time, his play wasn't devoid of the usual mistakes that plague a freshman's game, such as forcing one or two head-scratching throws per outing. In his shortened 2020 campaign, nothing changed. Slovis remained accurate, he forced some throws and ended up within a grading point of his 2019 passing grade.

Drake London leads a receiving room with several impact transfers and inexperienced former highly-ranked recruits. London — a former USC basketball player — is coming off a season in which he tied for third in receiving grade among Pac-12 wide receivers.

15. WISCONSIN BADGERS

Graham Mertz, the No. 3 pro-style quarterback prospect in the 2019 class, had one of the best starting debuts we have seen in the PFF College era. Against Illinois to begin the 2020 season, he didn’t throw a single uncatchable ball while tossing three big-time throws en route to a 93.9 passing grade. He then reportedly suffered a shoulder injury in Wisconsin's next game against Michigan but played through it. That partly explains why he earned a poor 53.4 passing grade over his last five games, far from the passer we saw to open the year. If Mertz is fully healthy and returns to a high level of play, then this Badgers team is poised to climb up the ranks.

16. TEXAS LONGHORNS

Texas will creep back closer to their old ways with Sarkisian leading the charge. Regardless if it’s Casey Thompson or Hudson Card, it could happen sooner rather than later. Both are unproven but have a lot of potential. Thompson at least has some quality reps under his belt. The 6-foot-1, 194-pound signal-caller earned a 90.0 grade on 17 attempts in 2020, a mark anchored by three big-time throws. He showed fantastic ball placement and timing while staying calm under pressure. While they might not be able to hang with Oklahoma this season, they have every opportunity to be the second-best team in the conference and exceed their projected eight-win total for the regular season.

17. IOWA STATE CYCLONES

Iowa State may have made it to the Big 12 championship game before capping off the year with a Fiesta Bowl win and a top-10 ranking in the AP poll in 2020, but it’s no secret that Brock Purdy was underwhelming under center. He did lead an efficient passing attack over the year, but he took a step back instead of making the leap into the elite at the position. The Iowa State QB posted a 74.2 passing grade on the year, a career-low by eight points. Meanwhile, the Cyclones defense was one of the top defenses in college football, finishing eighth in PFF grade and 13th in successful play rate allowed among Power Five units. The team returns its seven most valuable players on the defensive side of the ball since 2019, according to PFF WAA.

There are no two ways about it: Purdy will decide the fate of the Cyclones in 2021. He has proven to be a great passer when in rhythm and can make some of the best anticipatory throws you’ll ever see, but he has to stop trying to do too much when the play breaks down. Iowa State can play their way into the top-10, but Purdy has to be the player he was early on in his college career.

18. OLE MISS REBELS

Offensively, Year 1 of the Lane Kiffin era at Ole Miss could not have gone much better than it did, and it’s that side of the ball that’s powering this ranking. Kiffin’s passing offense was masterful and ended up being the second-most-efficient unit in the Power Five, behind only the Crimson Tide.

Along with that, Ole Miss saw the eighth-largest year-over-year improvement in passing efficiency among all Power Five programs in the PFF College era. Quarterback Matt Corral had a couple of hiccups against Arkansas and LSU but still finished with an elite PFF grade on the year and is a top-10 graded player at the position. The notable concern on offense as they enter 2021 has to do with replacing star slot receiver Elijah Moore, the third-highest-graded receiver in the FBS last year. Western Kentucky transfer Jahcour Pearson is a suitable enough replacement, but he still has massive shoes to fill.

19. WASHINGTON HUSKIES

It wasn't so far-fetched to believe that Washington was in the running for having one of the nation's top defenses, but the chances of that happening took a major hit in the offseason when edge defender Zion Tupuola-Fetui tore his Achilles. Don't write this unit off just yet, though. Cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Kyler Gordon rank first and third, respectively, among all returning Pac-12 corners in PFF WAA generated over the last couple of years, and Gordon did that with just a handful of starts in that span.

Meanwhile, linebacker Edefuan Ulofoshio claims the top spot at his respective position over that same period, while edge defender Ryan Bowman is second at his to only Kayvon Thibodeaux despite playing in only two games in 2020. The Huskies also replace Elijah Molden with Brendan Radley-Hiles, a transfer from Oklahoma and one of the best slot corners in college football. The defensive system remains in place at Washington despite the departure of defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski, and the talent is there to execute it at a high level.

20. COASTAL CAROLINA CHANTICLEERS

The Chanticleers' 2020 campaign was a Cinderella story, and they have every opportunity to make the sequel in 2021. According to PFF’s Wins Above Average (WAA), they return 13 of their 14 most valuable players from last year’s team, including the Sun Belt’s highest-graded returning quarterback (Grayson McCall), wide receiver (Jaivon Heiligh), tight end (Isaiah Likely) and cornerback (D’Jordan Strong). Coastal Carolina fielded the fifth-most-efficient passing attack in the FBS last year, generating 0.42 EPA per pass play. Strong, meanwhile, anchored a secondary that helped Coastal rank ninth in the FBS in EPA per pass allowed. They will have a shot at a perfect slate in 2021, considering they have the easiest strength of schedule among all 130 FBS programs.

21. OREGON DUCKS

The talent is there for Oregon to field an elite defense this fall. Thibodeaux returns as the headliner, as he's the highest-graded edge defender in the Pac-12 since his 2019 true freshman campaign. Behind him, the Ducks appear to have a star on the rise with off-ball linebacker Noah Sewell, who finished as the conference’s second-most-valuable player at the position as a true freshman in 2020. At the back end, the talented secondary is anchored by Mykael Wright, one of the three most valuable corners in the Pac-12 since 2019 as an underclassman.

The question is: Can the offense do its part?

Last year’s remade offensive line held up just fine, as did the rushing attack, but the week-to-week performance at quarterback was cause for concern. However, former starter Tyler Shough transferred this offseason, leaving former Boston College quarterback Anthony Brown as the likely leader of the offense. Brown earned a 57.5 passing grade as the Eagles’ starter in 2019 before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 6.

22. IOWA HAWKEYES

Iowa excelled in pass coverage last season, and the team appears poised to do so again in 2021. The Hawkeyes finished second among Power Five teams in expected points added allowed per pass play last season and return their most important contributors from that unit — outside corners Riley Moss and Matt Hankins and free safety Jack Koerner. The team's offense is a different story, though.

The offensive line will be in good shape with Tyler Linderbaum — the highest-graded center in college football last season — leading the way, and tight end Sam LaPorta returns as a formidable receiving weapon, but quarterback and wide receiver aren’t as solid. The Hawkeyes' wide receiver room in 2020 was the third-lowest-graded unit in the Big Ten, and it will be without its top two wideouts from last year, Brandon Smith and Ihmir Smith-Marsette. Meanwhile, quarterback Spencer Petras struggled to get much going downfield in his first year as a starter in 2020 and displayed suspect accuracy en route to a poor 56.9 passing grade for the year.

 23. UCF KNIGHTS

UCF will be one of the more interesting teams to monitor this fall with Gus Malzahn taking over for Josh Heupel. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel thrived in a Heupel system that isn’t necessarily the most difficult to master. As a true freshman and sophomore the last two seasons, he earned 81.4 and 90.9 PFF grades. Gabriel posted a 6.5% big-time throw rate and minimal 1.9% turnover- worthy play rate over that span, both of which are top 10 marks among all FBS passers. It will be a different world for him in 2021 with the new system and the receiving unit at his disposal.

The Knights have had one of the top wide receivers in the conference in each of the last two seasons in Gabriel Davis and then Marlon Williams, but they don’t have any promising players on the rise. No returning UCF receiver ranked in the top half of the AAC in receiving grade. The team does welcome in a few different transfers at wide receiver who have ample experience at the Power Five level, but none have proven production to bank on. The traits are there for Gabriel to remain an elite passer and lead UCF to success once again in 2021, but it’s going to be tougher this time around.

24. NEVADA WOLF PACK

There are very few coverage units on Nevada’s schedule that can effectively shut down the three-headed monster of Carson Strong, Romeo Doubs and Elijah Cooks. Strong fits like a glove in this Air Raid attack. Last year, the big-armed quarterback sported an 85.8 passing grade, a 1.7% turnover-worthy play rate (fifth in the FBS) and a 12.9% uncatchable pass rate (tied for second). The Wolf Pack are in prime position to take home the top spot in the Mountain West Conference West division and secure a double-digit win total for the second time in the program’s history.

25. NC STATE WOLFPACK

The NC State offense is underrated heading into 2021. Firstly, the program has one of the most well-rounded centers in college football in Grant Gibson and one of the best run-blockers overall in Ikem Ekwonu. And they’ll be opening up lanes for running back Zonovan Knight, who is the most valuable returning running back in the ACC, per PFF WAA. Starting quarterback Devin Leary looked like a new man in the four games we got to see from him in 2020, too, as he tallied at least four big-time throws in all three games he started.

FIRST FIVE OUT (ALPHABETICAL ORDER)

Auburn Tigers
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
Oklahoma State Cowboys
TCU Horned Frogs
Utah Utes

 

 

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LonghornSean

LonghornSean 3942

Posted
Posted

Coaches poll week 2 - September 7

 
RK
TEAM
REC PTS
TREND
1
AlabamaAlabama(64)
1-0 1624
-
2
GeorgiaGeorgia(1)
1-0 1537
3
3 1-0 1491
1
4 1-0 1397
1
5 1-0 1334
1
6 0-1 1239
4
7 1-0 1197
-
8 1-0 1113
2
9 1-0 1058
2
10 1-0 1057
2
11 1-0 920
1
12 1-0 914
6
13 1-0 872
7
14
USCUSC
1-0 828
-
15 1-0 653
4
16 2-0 538
NR
17 0-1 359
2
18 1-0 294
NR
19 1-0 289
5
20 1-0 285
5
21 1-0 274
NR
22 0-1 252
13
23 1-0 243
1
24 0-1 186
8
25 1-0 181
NR
 
Complete Rankings

Others receiving votes: Auburn 123, Michigan 99, LSU 95, NC State 81, Liberty 78, BYU 65, Indiana 58, TCU 49, UCF 48, Florida State 34, Michigan State 33, Kentucky 28, Pittsburgh 20, Kansas State 19, Louisiana 19, Boston College 19, Appalachian State 15, SMU 14, Rutgers 11, Arkansas 11, Maryland 9, Tennessee 7, Nevada 7, Army 7, Fresno State 7, Tulane 6, Ball State 5, Virginia 5, Missouri 5, San José State 5, Marshall 3, Air Force 2, UAB 2, Charlotte 1

Dropped from rankings: LSU 13, Indiana 17, Washington 21, Louisiana 23

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LonghornSean

LonghornSean 3942

Posted
Posted

AP Poll Week 2

 
RK
TEAM
REC PTS
TREND
1
AlabamaAlabama(59)
1-0 1571
-
2
GeorgiaGeorgia(4)
1-0 1507
3
3 1-0 1437
1
4 1-0 1374
2
5 1-0 1288
1
6 0-1 1231
3
7 1-0 1136
1
8 1-0 1070
1
9 1-0 1045
2
10 1-0 942
8
11 1-0 908
8
12 1-0 883
1
13 1-0 842
-
14
USCUSC
1-0 789
1
15 1-0 683
6
16 2-0 668
NR
17 1-0 384
5
18 0-1 376
6
19 1-0 359
NR
20 1-0 335
NR
21 1-0 334
3
22 0-1 229
8
23 1-0 222
2
24 0-1 198
14
25 1-0 83
NR
 
Complete Rankings

Others receiving votes: TCU 80, NC State 69, UCF 61, Liberty 57, LSU 57, Michigan 52, Oklahoma State 39, Indiana 37, Michigan State 28, Nevada 23, Kansas State 13, Louisiana 12, BYU 10, Boston College 8, Ball State 7, Maryland 6, Arizona 5, UAB 5, Florida State 4, Kentucky 3, Texas Tech 2, Army 2, Appalachian State 1

Dropped from rankings: LSU 16, Indiana 17, Washington 20, Louisiana 23

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Enchubben

Enchubben 5509

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Not sure why aggy would drop. They won by 31 and held Kent State to 10 despite their QB repeatedly handing them the ball. 

I don't think they're the 5th best team in the country but they didn't do enough for voters to actually drop them. 

I just figured I saw enough of Clemson and UGA to indicate that they should both still be above A&M.   I think 6 makes more sense, voters simply don't like putting a team that starts 0-1 ahead of a team that is 1-0.  There is just such a huge gap between Alabama/OSU/OU,UGA/Clemson and then the next 5 teams.

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NeverMarryAStripper

NeverMarryAStripper 21781

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Not sure why aggy would drop. They won by 31 and held Kent State to 10 despite their QB repeatedly handing them the ball. 

I don't think they're the 5th best team in the country but they didn't do enough for voters to actually drop them. 

They scored 31 on a team that gave up 70 to Buffalo last year

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utee94

utee94 15745

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

I just figured I saw enough of Clemson and UGA to indicate that they should both still be above A&M.   I think 6 makes more sense, voters simply don't like putting a team that starts 0-1 ahead of a team that is 1-0.  There is just such a huge gap between Alabama/OSU/OU,UGA/Clemson and then the next 5 teams.

All true, but after A&M sharts the bed several times, it won't matter.

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ztejas

ztejas 43263

Posted
Posted
Just now, NeverMarryAStripper said:

They scored 31 on a team that gave up 70 to Buffalo last year

Pollsters just don't think about this stuff that hard, though. At lot of them just see the score and move on. They aren't going to break down a 31 point win over a really shitty FBS team. 

Aggy has plenty of potential losses on the schedule. The rollercoaster will work itself out. 

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texifornia

texifornia 56508

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

I just figured I saw enough of Clemson and UGA to indicate that they should both still be above A&M.   I think 6 makes more sense, voters simply don't like putting a team that starts 0-1 ahead of a team that is 1-0.  There is just such a huge gap between Alabama/OSU/OU,UGA/Clemson and then the next 5 teams.

Clemson scored 3 points. I mean.... come on.

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Jimbob

Jimbob 417

Posted
Posted

Aggy likely goes 10-3 and finishes top 10.  
 

They are better than we would like, and their schedule is soft with LSU sucking and the rebuilding going on around them.  
 

No clear losses on that schedule outside Bama, maybe war eagle and/or a miss school beat them.  

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18654

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Jimbob said:

Aggy likely goes 10-3 and finishes top 10.  
 

They are better than we would like, and their schedule is soft with LSU sucking and the rebuilding going on around them.  
 

No clear losses on that schedule outside Bama, maybe war eagle and/or a miss school beat them.  

They are gonna get their asses whipped in Oxford.

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29779

Posted
Posted

It's the first week. There were a lot of interesting games. A&M vs Kent State wasn't one of them and nobody is interested enough in the Aggies to learn the secret handshake and coding knowleldge required to their nothing game.

They won by a score that looks adequate. I doubt anyone outside of Texas looked at the box score because what you can you really learn from a game against Kent State?

Voters can check them out against Colorado on real TV this weekend. If the Aggies look good, they'll get a pass on their poor performance against Kent State. I can't imagine the Aggies are going to look great against higher calibre athletes away from sacred Pyle Field despite their dreams of being "scary good" on the road to a "natty."

Fucking yokels.

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Danimal

Danimal 331

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Jimbob said:

Aggy likely goes 10-3 and finishes top 10.  
 

They are better than we would like, and their schedule is soft with LSU sucking and the rebuilding going on around them.  
 

No clear losses on that schedule outside Bama, maybe war eagle and/or a miss school beat them.  

I'm seeing regular season losses to:

Bama

Pick 2 from Ole Miss, Auburn, LSU

Pick 1 from Mizz, Miss St, Colo, S Car., Ark

Their defense is good (although their secondary won't scare anyone), but it's not enough to bail out their terrible QB and OL. 

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