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Tell me what's happening in Afganistan (no CR. Can't we all just get along?)

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elfenix

elfenix 34338

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Da Fino said:

I noticed that a Turkish c-130 just recently landed in Kabul. Is that most likely for transporting their people or anyone that can get there?

turkey is supposed to be taking over security at the kabul aiport

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/erdogan-says-turkey-still-aims-maintain-kabul-airport-security-2021-08-18/

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CHIEF
CHIEF

Well, our Marine is out. He was one of the ones chosen to escort our 13 dead Marines back home. He is young, bulletproof, and in a way can be careless. His biggest objection? Not being able to deal ou

InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

And there is something else about this one. No politics, but I am tired of hearing about how fucked up the Afghans were across the board. My engineers could build anything, yet USAID brought in Bolivi

52-80
52-80

if i was an afghani refugee and my first exposure to the western world was united airlines, i'd probably ask to stay behind.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

Naw, that plan was scrapped two days ago:|

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-drops-kabul-airport-plans-will-assist-if-taliban-ask-sources-2021-08-16/

.. and from the article you posted:

"Turkish sources told Reuters this week that those original plans were dropped because of the chaos in Kabul, but that Turkey would still offer the Taliban security and technical assistance at the airport."

Looks to me like Taliban said, "uh, no, you won't" and Turkey said "oh, okay."  And providing security for the Taliban or acc. to their requests (says nothing about U.S./NATO) isn't quite what I had in mind for "airport security."  But it's a unmitigated mess over there, so nothing surprises me.

Edited by phdhorn
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Santo89

Santo89 18

Posted
Posted

Reading the numbers of the Afghan army were greatly inflated and it was confirmed by an inspector generals report. 

As Afghan army routed, officials say Pentagon vastly overestimated its power | The Times of Israel

And barely 60% of the Afghan army troops were trained fighters, the West Point analysts said.

A more accurate estimate of the army’s fighting strength — once the 8,000 air force personnel are taken out of the equation — is 96,000, they concluded.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26172

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

 

Also @InkaUtexas I got this from a veterans group I belong to on facebook:

Since M.A.I.N admin won’t post this information in efforts to help extract Americans, Allies & Afghans. Not like there isn’t 100s of us all trying to help right now. This is from my Afghan & DC contacts.
George P. Bush (TX Land Commissioner), Scott Taylor (Seal) former congressman & Andy Wilson (ODA) CEO of Quiet Professionals LLC out of Tampa have all been combining efforts to help. Here’s the latest info.
The State Department has now set up a hotline at 1-888-407-4747(domestic calls) and 1-202-501-4444 (overseas calls), as well as a Repatriation Assistance Request form online for any U.S. Citizens seeking emergency flights out of Kabul. DO NOT CALL OR GO TO THE US EMBASSY IN KABUL, as of this time the US Embassy is now under the control of the Taliban.
For Afghan Citizens seeking evacuation please contact the email below.
برای شهروندان افغان که قصد تخلیه دارند لطفاً با ایمیل زیر تماس بگیرید.
afg-evac@ossoff.senate.gov
SIV: If you/someone you know has an approved petition for a Special Immigrant Visa, email NVCSIV@state.gov or call 1-603-334-0828. For those with/without approved petitions, you can also email congressional office so we can try and push for an urgent evac.
SIV: اگر شما / کسی که می شناسید درخواست درخواست ویزای ویژه مهاجرت را دارید ، به NVCSIV@state.gov ایمیل بزنید یا با شماره 1-603-334-0828 1-603 تماس بگیرید. برای کسانی که درخواستهای تأیید شده / بدون آنها دارند ، می توانید به دفتر کنگره ایمیل ارسال کنید تا ما بتوانیم تلاش کنیم که یک فوریت تخلیه را انجام دهیم.
RepKimEvac@mail.house.gov
For those already here, there are some additional resources available through the No One Left Behind Organization that can further aid SIV holders here.
برای کسانی که در حال حاضر اینجا هستند برخی منابع اضافی از طریق سازمان هیچ کس باقی نمی ماند که می تواند به دارندگان SIV در اینجا بیشتر کمک کند.
HELPING HERE IN U.S. - If you’re in the United States and wish to help people evacuating Afghanistan. You can volunteer for airport pickup, apartment setups, and/or meals for Afghans, go to:

Message forwarded. You are the fucking man brother. First round on me. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26172

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, elfenix said:

turkey is supposed to be taking over security at the kabul aiport

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/erdogan-says-turkey-still-aims-maintain-kabul-airport-security-2021-08-18/

That was always the plan and negotiated a few months ago if I recall. That was part of the phase out. Air Control and Security. It would replace the NATO mission that was running the airport. 

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Harrison Bergeron

Harrison Bergeron 1798

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Santo89 said:

Reading the numbers of the Afghan army were greatly inflated and it was confirmed by an inspector generals report. 

As Afghan army routed, officials say Pentagon vastly overestimated its power | The Times of Israel

And barely 60% of the Afghan army troops were trained fighters, the West Point analysts said.

A more accurate estimate of the army’s fighting strength — once the 8,000 air force personnel are taken out of the equation — is 96,000, they concluded.

I heard somewhere that maybe 50K have been killed fighting the Tallies ... not this week but since 2002 - that may be completely wrong. It sounds like the core problem was its army was setup assuming U.S. support via logistics, air, supplies, etc., and we pulled all of that. It is pretty shocking that they did not put up more of a fight.

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Harrison Bergeron

Harrison Bergeron 1798

Posted
Posted
Just now, dcar00 said:

yikes   

https://news3lv.com/news/nation-world/us-embassy-us-government-cant-guarantee-safe-passage-to-kabul-airport

if there are really 10K Americans still there ruh roh.

 

I asked the same question earlier (not being a dick) - seems like a lot of NGOs, humanitarian workers, religious groups, etc. I too was shocked there were so many excluding government / military personnel.

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Harrison Bergeron

Harrison Bergeron 1798

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, blacklab said:

I'll be monitoring as well. Please report political posts in this thread. I'm not going to move, just going to delete. If I delete more than 2 of your posts you'll be taking a day off.

If you want to discuss what biden/trump/obama/bush should have done or who's fault it is please go to the CR.

Please post news/stories about the evacuation here.

I made the mistake of peeking inside the rubber room. The only thing more predictable was how the Afghanistan withdrawal would turn out.

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DDD Dad

DDD Dad 14352

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Harrison Bergeron said:

I asked the same question earlier (not being a dick) - seems like a lot of NGOs, humanitarian workers, religious groups, etc. I too was shocked there were so many excluding government / military personnel.

I imagine there are quite a bit more than 10K that need to be extracted (possibly double or triple).  If you include Afghan nationals who need refuge, perhaps as many as tenfold (not all in Kabul).  The Biden Administration announced yesterday (and I believe again today) that they anticipated they would be able to ramp up to extracting as many as 9K people per day from the airport.  With an August 31 target date for cessation you can do the math on how successful they'll be.

Edited by DDD Dad
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dcar00

dcar00 14378

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Pretty sure this was reported a couple of days ago.

Not good, Bob.

I'm hoping they got some out in the last 2 days and it's lower now but the official saying they might not get everyone out by the deadline but will try until the clock runs out tells me its still a ton of people. yeah, not good.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

"Boarding Pass, please."  

(hands it over)

"Okay sir, you have your choice for security lines...TSA, Turkish, or Taliban."  

(sincerely mulls it over...)

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MillerEP

MillerEP 30501

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, elfenix said:

Troops to stay until civvies are evac'd:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/18/afghanistan-kabul-taliban-live-updates/

I don't honestly see how he can say that. How will he know, we have people spread out all over the country, not just Kabul. Right now, it's difficult to get to the airport as it is from within the same city, imagine trying to get there from Helmand Province.

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Deej

Deej 76946

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Harrison Bergeron said:

It is a shame the Taliban is spread out in the mountains. It would be awesome if a bunch of their leaders and fighters congregated in a relatively small location that we could identify and take care of the problem.

We could just send in John Rambo.

Rambo Lionsgate GIF by Rambo: Last Blood

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MillerEP

MillerEP 30501

Posted
Posted

@InkaUtexas

More resources for your friends:

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/afghan-interpreters-refugees-help/?fbclid=IwAR3rXrmX9s4mtP2hI5ec8F9Mj-gp0fMI8ccaKVuIoFEBk2u-10MHFjGA4SQ

Also, you can have your friend email: richardfmeldrum@gmail.com

He's working with a group to help process SIVS through Camp Sullivan. He can send you a link to fill out.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

I miss the old days when Afghanistan was stable, safe, and a beacon of peaceful freedom.  Like that one afternoon 1991 and that 3-day weekend in 2003.  Those were good times.  Why can't we go back to those times?  

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9942

Posted
Posted (edited)

I believe a large portion of those 10-15k us citizens are Afghan expats who “came home “ after the initial invasion.  There’s a lot of contractors and NGO as well, but not 10K. 
 

Doesnt make it any better or worse, but these are families that came back and put down roots.  Not a former operator doing personal security or Red Cross.  They are less mobile and were  probably less likely to pull up roots and leave after April 11.

Edited by Bateshorn
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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26172

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

@InkaUtexas

More resources for your friends:

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/afghan-interpreters-refugees-help/?fbclid=IwAR3rXrmX9s4mtP2hI5ec8F9Mj-gp0fMI8ccaKVuIoFEBk2u-10MHFjGA4SQ

Also, you can have your friend email: richardfmeldrum@gmail.com

He's working with a group to help process SIVS through Camp Sullivan. He can send you a link to fill out.

Gracias Señor. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14378

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Lobo said:

I miss the old days when Afghanistan was stable, safe, and a beacon of peaceful freedom.  Like that one afternoon 1991 and that 3-day weekend in 2003.  Those were good times.  Why can't we go back to those times?  

Parking Lot around 2002/3 was the right call but here we are....

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Helobious

Helobious 9467

Posted
Posted

I do wonder how easily the Taliban will be able to have total control of Afghanistan once this whole mess calms down. Partially because they seem like a group that would splinter and infight eventually, and partly because many afghan people over the years have seen what western life is like through the internet. That was never the case in the past. For example maybe nowadays murdering women just for not wearing a burqa might not go over as smoothly as it used to.

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DonkeyCigars

DonkeyCigars 143

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Helobious said:

I do wonder how easily the Taliban will be able to have total control of Afghanistan once this whole mess calms down. Partially because they seem like a group that would splinter and infight eventually, and partly because many afghan people over the years have seen what western life is like through the internet. That was never the case in the past. For example maybe nowadays murdering women just for not wearing a burqa might not go over as smoothly as it used to.

Also, what will be the money situation be like? Who will be funding them and will China/Russia or whomever want to wait a bit until all the hoopla dies out before secretly funneling money to them? I read this today:

Quote

 

The Taliban inherits a country that’s one of the poorest in the world and largely depends on others to prop up its economy. International aid accounted for ~43% of Afghanistan’s GDP in 2020, per the World Bank.

But there are signs that aid could slow to a trickle:

The IMF is withholding more than $450 million it was supposed to send to Afghanistan on Monday as part of its Covid relief program.

The US has frozen about $9 billion in international reserves held by Afghanistan's central bank, and blocked bulk shipments of dollars to the country as the government collapsed over the weekend.

Now, the Taliban can access just 0.1% of Afghanistan's reserves, the former central bank governor, Ajmal Ahmady, said Tuesday. The likely outcome, Ahmady predicted, is more capital controls, depreciation of the currency, and higher inflation that will lead to even more poverty.

 

 

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MillerEP

MillerEP 30501

Posted
Posted

While we were in there we sent in experts to do geological surveys and discovered that they're sitting on massive amounts of Lithium in their mountains. Somewhere in the range of $1trillion, so some have called it the Saudi Arabia of Lithium. The goal was to give the Afghans some industry that they could have to prop up their economy and become self-sufficient. The problem is they have virtually no security and no industry, so there wasn't any way to mine it out. They don't have "corporations" or billionaires like Western countries who can work the logistics and start-up costs it takes to get started, and then the security to ensure they can operate undisturbed so it just sits there.

As you can imagine lithium batteries are only growing as a market, especially with most countries now trying to pivot to electronic vehicles. China has been especially interested in it, they want to go in and mine it all out and send it back to China. They have the money and means to do it.

Of course Afghanistan also still is the world's largest producer of Poppies for opioids, so I imagine they'll go back to smuggling that for money.

So whoever wins out, will get bribes by the Chinese to let the Chinese strip them of their resources, while also taking a cut of the poppy trade, while the man on the street will go back to extreme poverty.

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MillerEP

MillerEP 30501

Posted
Posted (edited)

People are starting to protest against the Taliban, despite the Taliban opening fire on more and more protestors:

Those caught with the old flag are still facing a death sentence:

Today was supposed to be Afghanistan's Independence Day, but as you can imagine it's, not going well.

There are some gruesome videos of public executions being posted on social media of former government officials:

The airport is still hectic, so far 12 dead just from "Stampedes" caused by them firing indiscriminately among the crowds:

 

 

Edited by MillerEP
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DonkeyCigars

DonkeyCigars 143

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

While we were in there we sent in experts to do geological surveys and discovered that they're sitting on massive amounts of Lithium in their mountains. Somewhere in the range of $1trillion, so some have called it the Saudi Arabia of Lithium. The goal was to give the Afghans some industry that they could have to prop up their economy and become self-sufficient. The problem is they have virtually no security and no industry, so there wasn't any way to mine it out. They don't have "corporations" or billionaires like Western countries who can work the logistics and start-up costs it takes to get started, and then the security to ensure they can operate undisturbed so it just sits there.

As you can imagine lithium batteries are only growing as a market, especially with most countries now trying to pivot to electronic vehicles. China has been especially interested in it, they want to go in and mine it all out and send it back to China. They have the money and means to do it.

Of course Afghanistan also still is the world's largest producer of Poppies for opioids, so I imagine they'll go back to smuggling that for money.

So whoever wins out, will get bribes by the Chinese to let the Chinese strip them of their resources, while also taking a cut of the poppy trade, while the man on the street will go back to extreme poverty.

I read $3T.

I asked this in another thread and got some good answers, but I agree, in theory and as a management consultant, the strategy should have been to partner with other Muslim/theocracy-friendly rich countries (OPEC Arabs, Qatar, UAE, etc. and Iranians) and build organization and capabilities to become the Kings of Lithium. 

Now you are going to be in a position where Taliban is back to milking goats and growing and exporting opiates, with us gone, China will be free to rape and pillage Afghanistan of all their natural resources which will further empower and enable China in their growth as the world's most powerful superpower.

It's hard to imagine a better scenario for China, they didn't have to do anything and are the clear winners and beneficiaries of all this.

Edited by DonkeyCigars
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