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Tell me what's happening in Afganistan (no CR. Can't we all just get along?)

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CHIEF
CHIEF

Well, our Marine is out. He was one of the ones chosen to escort our 13 dead Marines back home. He is young, bulletproof, and in a way can be careless. His biggest objection? Not being able to deal ou

InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

And there is something else about this one. No politics, but I am tired of hearing about how fucked up the Afghans were across the board. My engineers could build anything, yet USAID brought in Bolivi

52-80
52-80

if i was an afghani refugee and my first exposure to the western world was united airlines, i'd probably ask to stay behind.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25989

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@MillerEP

Contacts are affirming the push by the NA into other areas. About 20 minutes drive from Bagram and this means two things to me. 

1- The Taliban cannot get the equipment we left into Kabul without a fight. Would be a nice arsenal for the NA. 

2- Whereas the Taliban are trying to consolidate in the cities with their special troops, the rank and file who ran north or came out of the hills are not super troopers. 

And perhaps there is not Afghan Unity, but there is Afghan pride. That is where I would focus the rallying message. If Dostum can run North and West and retake Mazar and Massoud can hold the road north out of Kabul it will be a shitty winter for the rest of the country. The NA would control the bread basket of the country. 

Correct about the IMF freezing assets. This is going to make life very hard on everyone. 

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Santo89

Santo89 18

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4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

@MillerEP

Contacts are affirming the push by the NA into other areas. About 20 minutes drive from Bagram and this means two things to me. 

1- The Taliban cannot get the equipment we left into Kabul without a fight. Would be a nice arsenal for the NA. 

2- Whereas the Taliban are trying to consolidate in the cities with their special troops, the rank and file who ran north or came out of the hills are not super troopers. 

And perhaps there is not Afghan Unity, but there is Afghan pride. That is where I would focus the rallying message. If Dostum can run North and West and retake Mazar and Massoud can hold the road north out of Kabul it will be a shitty winter for the rest of the country. The NA would control the bread basket of the country. 

Correct about the IMF freezing assets. This is going to make life very hard on everyone. 

Is Massoud the son of the Mujahadeen Massoud from the 80's?

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dcar00

dcar00 14270

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27 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

@MillerEP

Contacts are affirming the push by the NA into other areas. About 20 minutes drive from Bagram and this means two things to me. 

1- The Taliban cannot get the equipment we left into Kabul without a fight. Would be a nice arsenal for the NA. 

2- Whereas the Taliban are trying to consolidate in the cities with their special troops, the rank and file who ran north or came out of the hills are not super troopers. 

And perhaps there is not Afghan Unity, but there is Afghan pride. That is where I would focus the rallying message. If Dostum can run North and West and retake Mazar and Massoud can hold the road north out of Kabul it will be a shitty winter for the rest of the country. The NA would control the bread basket of the country. 

Correct about the IMF freezing assets. This is going to make life very hard on everyone. 

good stuff. gonna be interesting if they can get some reasonable stalemate.  the crackdown in the cities is going to be horrific if the Talibs think they are getting pushed back.

Could crossfire near Kabul could be a problem if we can't get everyone out in the next 4 or 5 days?

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dcar00

dcar00 14270

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2 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Hope this is true:

 

the fuel is a big problem.  the food they will start taking from the civilians, until it runs out of course.

If we had Schwarzkopf I'd almost think this was the plan to kill them off once and for all.

 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25989

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16 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

good stuff. gonna be interesting if they can get some reasonable stalemate.  the crackdown in the cities is going to be horrific if the Talibs think they are getting pushed back.

Could crossfire near Kabul could be a problem if we can't get everyone out in the next 4 or 5 days?

NA won't try to take Kabul. They will push out their perimeter, hold the Talibans in the city and move NW is what I think. Secure their rear and then get ready for movement next spring. 

As for Fuel, watch those hummers get parked quickly. Another issue is makes it hard for the Taliban to move N. Question is does Pakistan throw them some supplies. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14270

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9 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

There are also photos showing Turkish, Azerbaijani, and German forces at the airport helping now. More Germans are expected to show up too, but so far nobody has flown out of the airport in the past 8 hours.

they need Snake Plissken...

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25989

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

There are also photos showing Turkish, Azerbaijani, and German forces at the airport helping now. More Germans are expected to show up too, but so far nobody has flown out of the airport in the past 8 hours.

Yeah, the shutdown perplexes me. Hell, load up aircraft with those at the airport and keep the train moving. 

Flightradar 24 shows Moose (c-17) heading in and a 130 with no call sign attached. MOOSE is accompanied by something else with no information listed. 

130 just went dark so perhaps a gunship. We have a command and control aircraft circling the city. LOL< correction.... 130 is back up flying just into Afghan airspace. Listed as USN so not a gunship. We moving some Seals in? 

Edited by InkaUtexas
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MillerEP

MillerEP 30491

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yeah, the shutdown perplexes me. Hell, load up aircraft with those at the airport and keep the train moving. 

Flightradar 24 shows Moose (c-17) heading in and a 130 with no call sign attached. MOOSE is accompanied by something else with no information listed. 

130 just went dark so perhaps a gunship. We have a command and control aircraft circling the city. LOL< correction.... 130 is back up flying just into Afghan airspace. Listed as USN so not a gunship. We moving some Seals in? 

There is one more flight of Marines coming in, we're only at 5,200 now, and still expecting to beef up to 6,000. It might be that craft? I know I saw an article about it on one of the veteran sites I hang out in on Facebook, I'll see if I can find it..

Tough gauntlet for US Citizens trying to get to the airport:

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/afghanistan/2021/08/19/few-answers-for-afghan-evacuees-seeking-safe-passage-to-kabul-airport/?utm_campaign=Socialflow+MAR&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social

One congressional staffer in contact with multiple Americans trapped in Afghanistan said individuals attempting to reach the airport are being interrogated and, in some cases, attacked by Taliban fighters. Ones who get through that checkpoint still face an unruly, panicked mob of individuals at the airport gates as U.S. personnel check paperwork and evacuation eligibility.

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17685

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4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Copied. FYI. BBC World News has good coverage. More about the on the ground situation vs. Politics. 

Also, the NA is launching some social media components on Twitter. If anyone wants I will start posting them. 

 

I wants. 

 

Thanks for all your and @MillerEP's work here.  It's most appreciated. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25989

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Something odd is going on. UK 130 flew in, turned around and is flying out. Did not land. we have some bird going in plus the 130. C and C is still up and circling. Moose (C-17) is not tracking. Wonder if security situation means it also turned around. 

An Indian 130 just made the move north and is on track to Herat. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25989

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@PanjshirProvin1 for NA perspective. 

@ragipsolylu (good overall Southwest Asia) 

@TCG_CrisisRisks (Global unrest, good focus on Afghanistan) 

Adding- 

@OSINTtechnical. They are reporting US Helicopters are active over Kabul. Link to an article claiming they are little birds from the 160th. That is the US Army's aviation Special Forces. Cousin was in the unit and his stories are pretty fun to hear. 

I am sure @MillerEP can add to this. 

Edited by InkaUtexas
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sidis

sidis 9832

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

Hope this is true:

 

 

2 hours ago, dcar00 said:

the fuel is a big problem.  the food they will start taking from the civilians, until it runs out of course.

If we had Schwarzkopf I'd almost think this was the plan to kill them off once and for all.

 

43% of the country's gdp was attributable to aid that is about to vanish under taliban control.  it was at $4 billion in nominal value in 2001 prior to invasion and rose to $19 billion in 2020 (for purposes of relative context, the city of austin's gdp is $159 billion).  half of that will be gone almost instantly.

the little bit of lights that do exist are about to go out.

humanitarian crisis doesn't even begin to cover it.  along with north korea, it will be the only non-sub-saharan african nation to be an economic sub-saharan african nation.

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Harrison Bergeron

Harrison Bergeron 1798

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2 hours ago, dcar00 said:

the fuel is a big problem.  the food they will start taking from the civilians, until it runs out of course.

If we had Schwarzkopf I'd almost think this was the plan to kill them off once and for all.

That would have made some sense. Get them near Kabul, move them all down. Problem solved. 

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MillerEP

MillerEP 30491

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Map showing the known Taliban checkpoints in Kabul:

https://maphub.net/MappingInsurgencies/taliban-checkpoints

Here is another map showing which country is running which gates at the Airport:

https://maphub.net/MappingInsurgencies/hkia-gates

Haqqani seen walking around in Kabul:

 

Another issue that is cropping up is that some Afghans were contracted by "NATO/ISAF," and not a specific country. They provide some support services around some of the bases, garbage collection, firemen, etc. Since they didn't work for any specific country, nobody is exactly sure what to do with them. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14270

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30 minutes ago, sidis said:

 

43% of the country's gdp was attributable to aid that is about to vanish under taliban control.  it was at $4 billion in nominal value in 2001 prior to invasion and rose to $19 billion in 2020 (for purposes of relative context, the city of austin's gdp is $159 billion).  half of that will be gone almost instantly.

the little bit of lights that do exist are about to go out.

humanitarian crisis doesn't even begin to cover it.  along with north korea, it will be the only non-sub-saharan african nation to be an economic sub-saharan african nation.

China can cover that checking the couch cushions if it wants. 

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MillerEP

MillerEP 30491

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10 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Not trying to be callous, but if he's that "important" why didn't we drone strike his ass...

He was hiding in Waziristan, Pakistan.

Seems like the leadership isn't exactly on the same page:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/20/lloyd-austin-taliban-america-defeat-506475

DEFENSE

Austin contradicts Biden, says Americans have been ‘beaten’ by the Taliban

 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25989

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Long War Journal (Interesting source) posted a map of who controls what. I wish it had a terrain overlay, but it is what it is. I might ask my GIS buddy to see if he could make a layered one. Anyways, what you would see is the Taliban control most cities and a shit ton of crappy land. Goes back to my point on an earlier post about where food is produced. If the NA can hold on, and even extend East and North they can hold on through the winter. 

This looks a lot like the maps from the Taliban offensive in 1991. 

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2021/08/anti-taliban-resistance-makes-modest-gains-outside-panjshir.php?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+LongWarJournalSiteWide+(FDD's+Long+War+Journal+Update)

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MillerEP

MillerEP 30491

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A bunch of Afghan refugees fled to Shiraz in Iran and were immediately arrested. However, the locals are giving them food, so I don't think they're being treated harshly.

 

A Google doc of compiled resources for people trying to get out of the country:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RJQ9CozGALE-pKdDPvlEGQqgljFlpGYWQVX3b83Cryo/edit

Edited by MillerEP
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sidis

sidis 9832

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15 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

China can cover that checking the couch cushions if it wants. 

and become the 6th empire since the successful mongol invasions to try its hand...good luck to them.

and before you say they don't feel the need to play with kid gloves on...the soviets in the 80's were not exactly "nation-building."

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dcar00

dcar00 14270

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2 minutes ago, sidis said:

and become the 6th empire since the successful mongol invasions to try its hand...good luck to them.

and before you say they don't feel the need to play with kid gloves on...the soviets in the 80's were not exactly "nation-building."

I was just talking about sending money.

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8817

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Map showing the known Taliban checkpoints in Kabul:
https://maphub.net/MappingInsurgencies/taliban-checkpoints
Here is another map showing which country is running which gates at the Airport:
https://maphub.net/MappingInsurgencies/hkia-gates
Haqqani seen walking around in Kabul:
 
Another issue that is cropping up is that some Afghans were contracted by "NATO/ISAF," and not a specific country. They provide some support services around some of the bases, garbage collection, firemen, etc. Since they didn't work for any specific country, nobody is exactly sure what to do with them. 

I always get a kick out a kids daily life There vs here. Just random 10 year old boys walking around taliban dudes with AKs around their shoulder. No parent in sight. Our kids walk across the street to a friends house and we watch from the garage door to make sure That they make it
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sidis

sidis 9832

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6 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I was just talking about sending money.

only reason to do so is to occupy the country for purposes of mining rights on the lithium assets and to control poppy.  that tends not to go well without a security apparatus in place. 

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MillerEP

MillerEP 30491

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Found this article, and noticed something interesting:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9913271/Our-boys-stand-Kabul-British-paratroopers-desperately-hold-line-Afghanistan.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

In one of the pictures, you can see them driving in vehicles and just spray-painted 3 PARA on it. Those are the same bulletproof vehicles that were left abandoned by the Afghan forces when they abandoned the airport before we moved in and took it back over. Same ones I was talking about yesterday when I said we'd render them inoperable and take firing pins. That means that they saw them over near the commandeered them, spray painted them and just started doing runs. That's some true adapting and overcoming. Kudos to those boys. 

Presumably the MRAPS the 82nd and 10th are using to keep civilians away from the runway were also commandeered from the abandoned north side of the airport, since they didn't bring those in. 

Edited by MillerEP
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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26438

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9 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


I always get a kick out a kids daily life There vs here. Just random 10 year old boys walking around taliban dudes with AKs around their shoulder. No parent in sight. Our kids walk across the street to a friends house and we watch from the garage door to make sure That they make it

Maybe your neighbors are Taliban. Be careful.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25989

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17 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


I always get a kick out a kids daily life There vs here. Just random 10 year old boys walking around taliban dudes with AKs around their shoulder. No parent in sight. Our kids walk across the street to a friends house and we watch from the garage door to make sure That they make it

That shit is all over the world. El Salvador and Peru in the 1980's were the same way. Made walking to the little Tienda interesting at times. 

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15301

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1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Not trying to be callous, but if he's that "important" why didn't we drone strike his ass...

He crawled out a cave he was hiding in I'm guessing - now feeling safe as he's surrounded by civilians that would be an insane amount of collateral damage from a drone strike.    

I've had this idea for a while that might work, but it's a little our there.  

It is possible to synthesize excited bromide in an argon matrix. Yes, it's an excimer frozen in its excited state.  It's a chemical laser but in solid, not gaseous, form.  Like lasing a stick of dynamite.  As soon as we apply a field, we couple to a state that is radiatively coupled to the ground state. I figure we can extract at least ten to the twenty-first photons per cubic centimeter which will give one kilojoule per cubic centimeter at 600 nanometers, or, one megajoule per liter.

Any thoughts on next steps?

 

06de2039a831ffc020be38a5e68cfb2e4950680a

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15301

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40 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


I always get a kick out a kids daily life There vs here. Just random 10 year old boys walking around taliban dudes with AKs around their shoulder. No parent in sight. Our kids walk across the street to a friends house and we watch from the garage door to make sure That they make it

Kids these days.  Don't know what they are missing....

05209611c140f98e69e92cf258d27bd7.jpg

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25989

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Statement from Secretary Blinken on assistance from Allies. 

Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State

Over the past several days, the United States has mobilized an unprecedented, global effort through our diplomatic channels to evacuate U.S. citizens, personnel from partner nations, and at-risk Afghans from Kabul.  We are working around the clock to maximize evacuations; we have facilitated the departure of approximately 13,000 people on U.S. military aircraft since August 14 and continue to ramp up operations.

I would like to give special thanks to our partners around the globe who have been instrumental in this operation.  Bahrain, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Qatar, Tajikistan, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and Uzbekistan have been, or will soon be, transiting Americans or, in some circumstances, others through their territories to safety.  Albania, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Mexico, Poland, Qatar, Rwanda, Ukraine, and Uganda have also made generous offers regarding the relocation efforts for at-risk Afghans.  We deeply appreciate the support they have offered, and are proud to partner with them in our shared support of the Afghan people.  We are encouraged by other countries that are also considering providing support.  We have no higher priority than the safety and security of U.S. citizens overseas and to fulfill our commitments to citizens of partner nations and at-risk Afghans.

This massive effort would not be possible without the tireless commitment of the Department’s workforce.  We have more work to do, but their dedication to service is of the highest order.  I would also like to thank partners from across the U.S. interagency for their cooperation and support of our collective efforts.

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