Tell me what's happening in Afganistan (no CR. Can't we all just get along?)

[Parliament 14278]

delete

 

Edited August 22, 2021 by Parliament

[berlinerbaer 678]

2 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Yes, but my point in the article is that al-Rahman, a hardliner, might be willing to look the other way even briefly while ISIS carries out attacks, which they've been doing anyway for years in Afghanistan, despite their opposition to the Taliban, and especially if they're not aimed at the Taliban,Which they wouldn't be.

In the 2015 ISI Taliban war, many fighting on the isis side were excaliban who didn't like their warlord. So allegiances are not exactly clear.

All bets are off in that hellhole right now.

Allegiances in Afghanistan are remarkably fluid and have been so at least since the Soviet War. We didn't seem to take this much into account over the course of our 20 year war.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/08/16/afghanistan-history-taliban-collapse-504977

Quote

The central feature of the past several weeks in Afghanistan has not been fighting. It has been negotiations between the Taliban and Afghan forces, sometimes brokered by local elders. On Sunday, the Washington Post reported “a breathtaking series of negotiated surrenders by government forces” that resulted from more than a year of deal-making between the Taliban and rural leaders.

Quote

Thus, as in medieval Europe, Afghanistan has a tradition to which the Taliban have adhered closely — and which helps explain the speed of their success. The Taliban will summon an enemy garrison to surrender, either at once or after the first assaults. If it does so, the men can either join the besiegers or return home with their personal weapons. To kill them would be seen as shameful. On the other hand, a garrison that fought it out could expect no quarter, a very strong incentive to surrender in good time.

Quote

Afghan society has been described to me as a “permanent conversation.” Alliances shift, and people, families and tribes make rational calculations based on the risk they face. This is not to suggest that Afghans who made such decisions are to blame for doing what they felt to be in their self-interest. The point is that America’s commanders and officials either completely failed to understand these aspects of Afghan reality or failed to report them honestly to U.S. administrations, Congress and the general public.

 

[phdhorn 6224]

9 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

Allegiances in Afghanistan are remarkably fluid and have been so at least since the Soviet War. We didn't seem to take this much into account over the course of our 20 year war.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/08/16/afghanistan-history-taliban-collapse-504977

 

I would agree.  And they were so before the Soviets ("sides" that were, say staunchly pro-Western easily have flipped- and flipped back - for decades).

Afghanis don't really think in terms of "country", they think in terms of "village" and "warlord alliance".  The country is more aptly seen (by them) as a bunch of city-states than some national unity.  Or at least that's how I've read it (Inka and Miller can chime in pro/con).

[52-80 19213]

So youre saying instead of the military we shouldve sent in some social counselors to work it all out

[Not a cat 5673]

Trust trees don't grow well in the mountains.

[phdhorn 6224]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

So youre saying instead of the military we shouldve sent in some social counselors to work it all out

Sure why not? Better than the historical alternative.

[Satoshi 129]

Old tweet but evidently those are missile defense flares going off? I guess it’s pretty common to shoot those off or is that sign of deteriorating conditions around the airport?

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

That came after the ISIS threat was nearby. Assuming the taliban can’t really tell who’s who and I doubt(I guess you never know) the last thing they want is one of their guys shooting SAMs at these things which turns America right back around and wipes them off of the map, again.


Isis doesn’t GAF what happens

[Enchubben 5510]

I get the idea of Taliban not wanting to  tempt the beast on their way out and all, but let’s say there is some sort of direct attack on American soldiers or civilians. Are we certain it would actually cause any sort of material attack or re-investment in the area? 

[Guest Lobo]

I have been assured, by people at the highest levels (that's who I roll with), that ISIS was defeated long ago and are no longer an issue.  

[Trey3216 15350]

4 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I have been assured, by people at the highest levels (that's who I roll with), that ISIS was defeated long ago and are no longer an issue.  

They were the JV team after all 

[Guest Lobo]

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

They were the JV team after all 

Right, right...Senior Year 

Gotta give ISIS credit, they oscillate from being a nothing burger to the greatest victory in modern U.S. Military history.  

Meanwhile, while we're all hang-wringing over this...there's a Zoom meeting going on right now with the Taliban, established Afghan government, provincial warlords, Iran, Pakistan, Russia, Turkey, and India...and an alert pops us "ISIS has joined the call" and everybody else besides the U.S. is like, "Okay, cool...we're all here...you have the slide deck...let's begin."   And we're left with 20 years of scratching our head on how we managed to fuck up almost every single aspect of this exercise across four administrations.  The men and women in uniform did their part but they were led by gross incompetence for 7,300 days. 

After the Marshall Plan, there is nothing the United States can't fuck up when it comes to foreign policy.  I don't know why people thought Afghanistan would be any different?  One side thinks it's because we don't spend enough of antiquated armor weapons systems, the other side thinks we're not sensitive enough to their localized religious practices.  Meantime, the 80% of us in the middle who are capable or rational thought and wanting the best outcome for our servicemen...are left wondering, "Yeah, I don't know the details...but this has gotta be the dumbest fucking thing we've done in awhile."  

Edited August 22, 2021 by Lobo

[52-80 19213]

1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

Sure why not? Better than the historical alternative.

Best route wouldve been to send in all the politicians who approved the war

[Bevo 13592]

[DaysOff 7965]

[52-80 19213]

if i was an afghani refugee and my first exposure to the western world was united airlines, i'd probably ask to stay behind.

[InkaUtexas 26026]

18 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Great like…?

Sarcasm. It is the Surly way. 

[InkaUtexas 26026]

16 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Sadly excellent point.  Non-Afghan civilians knew this was coming, why the fuck were they dilly-dallying around?

Spoke with a French partner today. He is livid. Told a US NGO to get their people out of Herat and was told God would protect them and they did not agree that they needed to get out. So now they are calling him every 15 minutes screaming about how were they left behind, how bad it is getting, etc. I agree with his assessment that the Taliban will not kill American Christians. But they are effectively hostages at this stage. 

Sucks. 

[InkaUtexas 26026]

5 hours ago, phdhorn said:

I would agree.  And they were so before the Soviets ("sides" that were, say staunchly pro-Western easily have flipped- and flipped back - for decades).

Afghanis don't really think in terms of "country", they think in terms of "village" and "warlord alliance".  The country is more aptly seen (by them) as a bunch of city-states than some national unity.  Or at least that's how I've read it (Inka and Miller can chime in pro/con).

I would agree, but there is an understanding of Afghan history. One of the mistakes within the creation of the ANA was reliance on local/regional forces and counting them as part of the larger army. Most of these forces did not receive the advisory support the primary corps did. So when the collapse started a lot of the "force" just walked to their homes. 

Think of it like this. I am a US Citizen and proud of that. But I am also a Texan and a Longhorn. These are my nation, region and tribe. 

[InkaUtexas 26026]

3 hours ago, Satoshi said:

Old tweet but evidently those are missile defense flares going off? I guess it’s pretty common to shoot those off or is that sign of deteriorating conditions around the airport?

 

One of the compounds we had was right next to the airport. I never saw a plane go out with Flares from Kabul. It was standard in Helmand but the Taliban liked to shoot at brit aircraft. For about 120 days there was no non-military aircraft allowed into Helmand. I was stuck there since my only option was to drive to Khandahar in light armored vehicles. Not a good option. So I said fuck it, I stayed and the person coming into replace me got to remain in Dubai for 4 months.

[InkaUtexas 26026]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

if i was an afghani refugee and my first exposure to the western world was united airlines, i'd probably ask to stay behind.

Says someone who never flew KAM Air or Ariana. My arm rest was duct taped in place. And no booze on those flights. 

 

[Telegraph_it 3358]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

if i was an afghani refugee and my first exposure to the western world was united airlines, i'd probably ask to stay behind.

How do they decide which refugee gets to sit in business? That 773 has the Polaris seat which is pretty nice. 

[squib 1120]

Here is a short and interesting podcast on the miscalculations regarding the withdrawal. Seems like a pretty even-handed discussion. Good listen while mowing the grass or sitting by the pool. It's only about 25 minutes.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/17/podcasts/the-daily/afghanistan-taliban-joe-biden-kabul.html?showTranscript=1

 

 

[52-80 19213]

37 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

How do they decide which refugee gets to sit in business? That 773 has the Polaris seat which is pretty nice. 

courtesy upgrades to the ANA veterans?

[elfenix 34331]

Spoke with a French partner today. He is livid. Told a US NGO to get their people out of Herat and was told God would protect them and they did not agree that they needed to get out.
Sucks. 

Sounds like antivaxxers

[InkaUtexas 26026]

9 minutes ago, elfenix said:

 

 

Sounds like antivaxxers

 

My father served 5 tours in Vietnam, most working with rapid response groups with primarily Vietnamese troops. He has told me many times about having to rush into the bad lands to rescue missionaries who were convinced God would protect them. Well the VC/NVA did not care about that. 

If you stay when told to leave, it is on you. I have lived in 5 war zones and always had an extraction plan. 

[MillerEP 30494]

Anti-Taliban (NA) forces from Panjshir are claiming they ambushed a Taliban convoy in Andarab killing 300. From my experience, you have to take numbers like that with a grain of salt, they like to embellish. There are also reports that they blew up the Doshakh Bridge in Salang (in Baghlan), which supposedly cuts off Taliban supply routes to the north. This was because the Taliban sent a massive offensive of supposedly 6000 fighters (again grain of salt) to clear the "resistance" out.

 

There also are reports that the Taliban is back to killing Hazaras again (an ethnic minority group who mostly are Shias) this time in the Behsud district of Wardak. The Taliban has also formed a "Special forces" outfitted with the latest captured US equipment, called the "badri 313" they went in and cleared everybody out from the civilian side of the airport (the southern side).

 

There are also reports that 300 Afghans with visas have left the airport. There are conflicting reports on this, some say they were kicked out for space limitations, while others say they asked to leave due to "unsatisfactory conditions" (i.e.e no food, water, etc.) While US helicopters are making runs outside of the airport picking people up at pre-determined spots.

 

 Meanwhile, Spain has started to accept Refugees, and Germany is withdrawing from their embassy and is bringing in infant formula, baby food, and diapers:

While US troops care for children, since there is no sanitation, food, or water for those hoping to get out:

 

The G7 summit is also expected to request to stay past August 31, because practically everyone can see the writing on the wall, this is not going to be over anytime soon. I would imagine that NATO would also be discussing how they can replace the US protecting the airport if we decide to pull chocks and sneak out in the middle of the night again. The tentative negotiations we've had with the Taliban is that we're only going to be there until the 31st, so it'll be interesting to see how they respond if we overstay our "agreement."

Edited August 22, 2021 by MillerEP

[Guest Lobo]

Pos rep and continued thanks for your continued service.  My father did not have nearly the length of Vietnam service as yours (he got started in the military a little earlier, '61)...but he had similar thoughts on the notion of "Make your plan with God in mind.  Make your exit with your ass in mind."  

I crack up at grown men I know who won't sit with their back to an entrance to a bar/restaurant out of worry.  But they'll go unvaccinated because, "Hey, it's all in God's plan!"  

Edited August 22, 2021 by Lobo

[InkaUtexas 26026]

3 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Anti-Taliban (NA) forces from Panjshir are claiming they ambushed a Taliban convoy in Andarab killing 300. From my experience, you have to take numbers like that with a grain of salt, they like to embellish. There are also reports that they blew up the Doshakh Bridge in Salang (in Baghlan), which supposedly cuts off Taliban supply routes to the north. This was because the Taliban sent a massive offensive of supposedly 6000 fighters to clear the "resistance" out.

 

There also are reports that the Taliban is back to killing Hazaras again (an ethnic minority group who mostly are Shias) this time in the Behsud district of Wardak. The Taliban has also formed a "Special forces" outfitted with the latest captured US equipment, called the "badri 313" they went in and cleared everybody out from the civilian side of the airport (the southern side).

 

There are also reports that 300 Afghans with visas have left the airport. There are conflicting reports on this, some say they were kicked out for space limitations, while others say they asked to leave due to "unsatisfactory conditions" (i.e.e no food, water, etc.) While US helicopters are making runs outside of the airport picking up at pre-determined spots.

 

 Meanwhile, Spain has started to accept Refugees, and Germany is withdrawing from their embassy and  is bringing in infant formula, baby food, and diapers:

While US troops go out and care for children, since there is no sanitation, food, or water for those hoping to get in:

 

The G7 summit is also expected to request to stay past August 31, because practically everyone can see the writing on the wall, this is not going to be over anytime soon. I would imagine that NATO would also be discussing how they can replace the US protecting the airport if we decide to pull chocks and sneak out in the middle of the night again. The tentative negotations we've had with the Taliban is that we're only going to be there until the 31st, so it'll be interesting to see how they respond if we overstay our
"agreement."

Good Input my man. And yeah, HKIA was never designed to handle this many people. I assume the US and allies have taken over the "Village" NATO built on the north side. There is a bad ass compound about a KM from the airport that could handle a ton of people. ETISALAT (UAE Comms) has it now, but not a lot of staff on site. 

As for the deadline. What are they going to do if we decide to stay there? We still have air assets watching and would fuck up any hard points hitting the airport. 

Was watching a C and C aircraft yesterday. It went from circling Kabul to moving further north up near Bagram. I am hearing it was a hell of a fight and the Taliban drove right into an ambush. It was not their 313 units, but the usual two dudes on a motorcycle type of unit. So basically cannon fodder. 

 The 313 is not new. They were the hit teams operating in the south for a few years. ISI trained and equipped. Mean dudes, but not Delta. 

[Sgt Hulk 13816]

3 tours there. We always knew this would happen. You can’t change an ideology 

[Parliament 14278]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Says someone who never flew KAM Air or Ariana. My arm rest was duct taped in place. And no booze on those flights. 

 

Air Afrique, ftw.

[InkaUtexas 26026]

Yeah, we all knew. And now it falls on us, individuals, to help those we can. At least that is my take. 

 

[Zepol87 9189]

Thanks again to @InkaUtexas and @MillerEP for the insight on all this

[BrickTop 477]

Inka, reading your posts, your background seems pretty interesting, what did you do in the military if I may ask?

[InkaUtexas 26026]

23 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

Inka, reading your posts, your background seems pretty interesting, what did you do in the military if I may ask?

Civilian bro. Worked development/humanitarian ops in Afghanistan and the Balkans. Did a few years traditional Business Development based in the Gulf focused on SW Asia. Now I just am a consultant. My current focus is East Africa and Latin America for a couple of US NGO's. 

@MillerEP is the military person. 

[BrickTop 477]

Civilian bro. Worked development/humanitarian ops in Afghanistan and the Balkans. Did a few years traditional Business Development based in the Gulf focused on SW Asia. Now I just am a consultant. My current focus is East Africa and Latin America for a couple of US NGO's. 
[mention=390]MillerEP[/mention] is the military person. 

Pretty cool, I spent two years in Iraq as a contract firefighter, almost went to Afghanistan for significantly more pay but my buddy said his base took incoming pretty much every day sometimes multiple times a day and I changed my mind, kinda glad I stayed put but a part of me would of liked to have seen Afghanistan

[Superhero 8833]

On 8/20/2021 at 5:03 AM, Cheeseweasel said:

Proxy war incoming. It's what we do best.

Unfortunately it's also their justification for bombing our ships and skyscrapers.

[Parliament 14278]

So what's the latest on the evacuations?  We're getting some people out, including SIV's, but have a ways to go.  We aren't sending American soldiers out of the airport to fetch people; just letting them find their own way in?  The Taliban and IS, so far, haven't messed with us.  No word to whether we'll stay after 8-31, and it's unlikely we'll be done evacuating people by then.

Do I have all of that correct?

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

So what's the latest on the evacuations?  We're getting some people out, including SIV's, but have a ways to go.  We aren't sending American soldiers out of the airport to fetch people; just letting them find their own way in?  The Taliban and IS, so far, haven't messed with us.  No word to whether we'll stay after 8-31, and it's unlikely we'll be done evacuating people by then.
Do I have all of that correct?

Qatar is helping get Americans past the taliban checkpoints since those 2 are hand in hand with each other.



Probably are checking everybody for suicide devices. Can’t imagine one sneaking past the guards and blowing up a plane in mid air, but here we are

[F250 28806]

4 hours ago, BrickTop said:

Inka, reading your posts, your background seems pretty interesting, what did you do in the military if I may ask?

I was starting to think this...

 

[InkaUtexas 26026]

1 hour ago, F250 said:

I was starting to think this...

 

nah man, that shit is too easy to get into and never get out of. I have purchased from people like that however. 

[InkaUtexas 26026]

3 hours ago, Parliament said:

So what's the latest on the evacuations?  We're getting some people out, including SIV's, but have a ways to go.  We aren't sending American soldiers out of the airport to fetch people; just letting them find their own way in?  The Taliban and IS, so far, haven't messed with us.  No word to whether we'll stay after 8-31, and it's unlikely we'll be done evacuating people by then.

Do I have all of that correct?

Pretty spot on. The issue no one wants to talk about is what about people not in Kabul. IS is what concerns me right now. They would love to throw a wrench into all of this. 

Imagine the footage of a United 777 going down. Worst case scenario. 

[InkaUtexas 26026]

5 hours ago, BrickTop said:

Pretty cool, I spent two years in Iraq as a contract firefighter, almost went to Afghanistan for significantly more pay but my buddy said his base took incoming pretty much every day sometimes multiple times a day and I changed my mind, kinda glad I stayed put but a part of me would of liked to have seen Afghanistan

Nice man. I worked with the firefighters in Sarajevo in the 1990's. Bad asses all of them. As for working on a base, cannot tell you about that since I never was on one. I preferred to live in town and run my programs. If you still want to go overseas there is a need for firefighters in Mozambique right now. Exxon and Total were hiring. 

[Muy Frio 182]

Cockpit video of German airbus landing in Kabul. 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

4 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

I have purchased from people like that however. 

*Allegedly. /lawyer'd

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

22 minutes ago, Muy Frio said:

Cockpit video of German airbus landing in Kabul. 

 

Fascinating. Thanks for sharing.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

4 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Pretty spot on. The issue no one wants to talk about is what about people not in Kabul. IS is what concerns me right now. They would love to throw a wrench into all of this. 

Imagine the footage of a United 777 going down. Worst case scenario. 

You gotta think they'd love that shit to happen.  Looks like some folks are getting out, which is good.

[Muy Frio 182]

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

Isn't already a warzone?

[Shady Ray 1633]

Iran providing fuel to the Taliban, which certainly seems to be one of the bigger short-term issues they were going to face.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-resumes-fuel-exports-afghanistan-after-taliban-request-union-says-2021-08-23/

 

 

Edited August 23, 2021 by Shady Ray