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Tell me what's happening in Afganistan (no CR. Can't we all just get along?)


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A Bild magazine editor. 
 

Translation

Under threat from military police, the US military forces us and ten other international journalists to take planes to Doha. Although we had a safe way out of the airport towards the city. Blatant attack on freedom of the press.

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2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Here’s a pretty good article from Axios that sorta covers why we are hewing to the 8/31 deadline:  there’s no real way to leave without the Taliban letting us leave.  It’s the same problem that closed Ton Son Nhut: inability to guarantee the safety of the air strip. If we don’t leave and they start shelling/mortaring the field, which Marines are going to be the last to die? 

Which is why is was so regarded to give up Bagram.  

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2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Which is why is was so regarded to give up Bagram.  

I mentioned this on the other thread, and I won’t CR it, but Bagram is a huge facility, and we relied on the ANA to secure it.  For us to hold Bagram on our own would have required a major influx of US forces. Also, it’s 40 miles outside of Kabul. 
 

FWIW.

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we have air superiority, why isn't one of the options using it to maintain a secure zone around the airport?  tell anyone living within a half mile radius of the airport to leave and that any fire directed towards the airport will be overwhelmingly answered at the origination?  

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7 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

we have air superiority, why isn't one of the options using it to maintain a secure zone around the airport?  tell anyone living within a half mile radius of the airport to leave and that any fire directed towards the airport will be overwhelmingly answered at the origination?  

Air superiority doesn't equal precision.  There are a shitload of civilians within a half mile of the airport.

It is a popular myth among the American public that our air superiority allows us to completely dominate an area with precision.  It does not.  It still relies on big-ass explosions, which are inherently imprecise.  And, it can't be a sustained presence, like a rifle on the ground is.  Even the best strike aircraft has to turn around to make its second run, and lots of shit can happen in that time it's off target.

If you want to control dirt, you have to have boots with guns on it.

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29 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

we have air superiority, why isn't one of the options using it to maintain a secure zone around the airport?  tell anyone living within a half mile radius of the airport to leave and that any fire directed towards the airport will be overwhelmingly answered at the origination?  

It's been wildly rumored that the Taliban have embedded artillery pieces among the surrounding civilian areas to insulate them against reprisals around Kabul.  Short of direct action raids, this is the end game.  

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23 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Air superiority doesn't equal precision.  There are a shitload of civilians within a half mile of the airport.

It is a popular myth among the American public that our air superiority allows us to completely dominate an area with precision.  It does not.  It still relies on big-ass explosions, which are inherently imprecise.  And, it can't be a sustained presence, like a rifle on the ground is.  Even the best strike aircraft has to turn around to make its second run, and lots of shit can happen in that time it's off target.

If you want to control dirt, you have to have boots with guns on it.

Absolutely agree with the last line. But the area around HKIA is pretty much wide open. You have the old UN compound and some other areas, but you can hold it with air support. Two roads in basically. It is one reason the Taliban loved hitting the area with suicide bombers early on. To cover an evacuation under fire air support is exactly what you use. 

And even 1-2 days of precision hitting, which is how we bomb now, would be nothing compared to what the Taliban and NA did to Kabul before we went in. We do not use Russian air tactics. 

 

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1 hour ago, Muy Frio said:

A Bild magazine editor. 
 

Translation

Under threat from military police, the US military forces us and ten other international journalists to take planes to Doha. Although we had a safe way out of the airport towards the city. Blatant attack on freedom of the press.

I'm kinda on the Miltary's side here.

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An interesting read from a "journalist" who was in Pakistan in 2001 and became an interpreter

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-58071592

to long to copy - but here is the first couple of pages

Quote

Afghan journalist Bilal Sarwary saw the Taliban toppled in 2001 and his country transformed. But in his view, as he explains here, the US missed an opportunity to try to bring lasting peace. And in the last two weeks the path of his homeland took a terrifying twist, one that put his own life in danger.

In 2001, I was a carpet salesman at the Pearl Continental Hotel in Peshawar, Pakistan, having yet another unremarkable day at work.

I'll never forget glancing up at the TV in a brief moment between sales, only to witness firsthand the dramatic live footage of a passenger plane careening into the World Trade Center in New York. Then the second plane, and another at the Pentagon.

None of our lives would ever be the same.

International attention immediately focused on Afghanistan where the ruling Taliban were accused of providing a sanctuary for the attack's prime suspects - Osama Bin Laden and his al-Qaeda movement.

Only the next day, there were suddenly hundreds of foreign media crews crowding the hotel's lobby, desperate for anyone who could speak English to assist them as a translator as they crossed the nearby border into Afghanistan. I took up that offer and I haven't stopped since.

I hadn't lived in Afghanistan since I was a child - our family had fled the violence during the civil war in the 1990s when the Soviet troops withdrew. So when I entered Kabul for the first time again after all those years, I was shocked to discover the destruction, with buildings reduced to rubble and twisted metal. All signs of hustle and bustle had vanished. The people were so poor, and there was so much fear.

I was initially working with Abu Dhabi TV and was based in the Intercontinental Hotel with five other journalists. I woke up every morning clouded in a haze of fear, as Kabul became the primary focus of American airstrikes. Known al-Qaeda operatives and Taliban came and went from our hotel, and we saw them wandering in nearby streets. Explosions rang through the night. I wondered if our hotel would be next.

And then one morning in early December, the Taliban were gone.

Within hours, people were lining up again outside barber shops to have their beards trimmed. Rhythmic Afghan music filled the streets, filling the vacuum left by explosions. Afghanistan was born again that morning.

From that moment onwards, I was intimately involved in observing the lives of ordinary Afghans firsthand, as they transitioned back to normality, no longer as a translator but as a journalist in my own right. From covering Tora Bora in the East to the Shai Koat battle in Paktia, I had seen the Taliban toppled.

Their fighters vanished into the mountainous rural areas, and their leadership fled to Pakistan. In retrospect, it is clear to me that this was a missed opportunity, a time when the US should have sat down with the Taliban to discuss a peace deal. I saw a genuine willingness amongst the rank-and-file of the Taliban to lay down their arms, and resume their lives. But the Americans didn't want that. From my reporting, it seemed to me and many other Afghans that their motivation was revenge after 9/11.

 

The ensuing years were a catalogue of errors.

Poor and innocent Afghan villagers were bombed and detained. The Afghan government's willingness to allow foreigners to drive the war effort created a gulf between it and the people. I remember clearly an incident where the Americans had mistakenly arrested and detained a taxi driver named Sayed Abasin on the highway between Kabul and Gardez. His father, Mr Roshan, was elderly and a legendary employee of Ariana airlines. After we exposed the error, Mr Abasin was eventually freed. But others were not so connected and not so lucky.

he Americans persisted with a heavy-handed approach, causing excess loss of life among ordinary Afghans. In a clear attempt to minimise American casualties, they prioritised bombs and drones over the use of ground troops. Trust for the Americans continued to erode and hopes for peace talks faded.

There were brief glimpses of what Afghanistan could become. I could now drive on an open road for thousands of kilometres without fear of death. I criss-crossed the country, driving all the way from Kabul to remote villages in Khost and Paktika provinces late at night or early in the morning. Afghanistan's extraordinary countryside could be traversed.

The year 2003 was the turning point.

It was when the insurgents started to strike back with a renewed strength. I remember one day very clearly - it was the day that a huge truck bomb pierced the heart of Kabul, shaking the city and shattering windows. I was one of the first journalists on the scene and I'm still traumatised by what I found. It was my first experience of witnessing what would become the new normal, an imposed fact of life - carnage, flesh, and dead corpses littering the blood-splattered ground.

 

And it just got worse. Later we would come to understand that the truck bombs and suicide attacks against Afghan forces, foreign forces and unarmed civilians in the middle of the city would mark the start of a very brutal chapter of the conflict. In response, the Americans escalated their reliance on airstrikes, this time expanding their list of Taliban targets - weddings and funerals in rural parts of the country.

 

 

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Naqib Mirzada (Class of 2017 West Point) dropped any of his military-related items before he reached a Taliban checkpoint in order to avoid any suspicion of being in the military. Days later, a soldier found this.
“I asked one of my guys a question on the radio that was easier answered in person, so he walks over to my truck. On the way back, he spots it and brings it over to me and is like ‘is this a West Point jacket?’” - anonymous Class of 2018 platoon leader.
Imagine trying to bring your family to safety as your country is being overrun. You only bring the essentials and everything else is left behind, so you bring your West Point Full Dress Jacket. It just means more.
What are the odds that the soldier spotted this among all the chaos and clutter? I can’t wait until this jacket is returned to its rightful owner. What a miracle.
West-point-jacket.jpg
 
Rest of story: it has been confirmed the guy in question is safe.
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2 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Hey the Romans did that with salt in N. Africa...

 

We could do it with Apache helos in the limited areas we need to control I'd venture.

Maybe.  Keeping a shitload of Apaches in the air, armed and fueled (and they're helos, so they have limited range)....that's an entirely different logistical challenge.  My strong suspicion is that we no longer have the resources on the ground in Afghanistan to equip and maintain a bunch of attack helicopters.  We have an evac plan in place with a relatively secure perimeter in one location, we have some ability to venture out with personnel helos (some/all are likely armed, but I doubt we have many attack helicopters around) and ground vehicles for specific local missions, and we have some fixed wing aircraft providing cover and potential fire support if needed in a specific circumstance.  That is likely the full list of tools at our disposal.

If we want to succeed at our current mission -- getting our people out -- then we need to pursue a path that also keeps us from ending up in a shooting war with the Taliban right now.  Recall how I noted how Afghans, Persians, and their relatives view contracts?  They exist only so long as the advantage shifts, and then there's a new deal.  The "deal" can change moment to moment.  As the goal of both parties is "don't blow each other up right now," we are all just going to have to work on terms that accomplish that goal, driven by the dynamic on the ground in real-time.  We are not in a position to say "fuck you, Taliban, we're the mighty USA and we do what we want!"....because that would invite attack, we'd have to fight back, and we'd end up stuck back where we're trying to GTFO.  And the Taliban  can't just start shooting at us, even if they really want to.....because they don't want that result (us staying and fighting them) either.  So, everyone wants the US gone, without there being combat.  Everyone makes the deals they can to accomplish that.  And the deal may change.  Several times.

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17 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Maybe.  Keeping a shitload of Apaches in the air, armed and fueled (and they're helos, so they have limited range)....that's an entirely different logistical challenge.  My strong suspicion is that we no longer have the resources on the ground in Afghanistan to equip and maintain a bunch of attack helicopters.  We have an evac plan in place with a relatively secure perimeter in one location, we have some ability to venture out with personnel helos (some/all are likely armed, but I doubt we have many attack helicopters around) and ground vehicles for specific local missions, and we have some fixed wing aircraft providing cover and potential fire support if needed in a specific circumstance.  That is likely the full list of tools at our disposal.

If we want to succeed at our current mission -- getting our people out -- then we need to pursue a path that also keeps us from ending up in a shooting war with the Taliban right now.  Recall how I noted how Afghans, Persians, and their relatives view contracts?  They exist only so long as the advantage shifts, and then there's a new deal.  The "deal" can change moment to moment.  As the goal of both parties is "don't blow each other up right now," we are all just going to have to work on terms that accomplish that goal, driven by the dynamic on the ground in real-time.  We are not in a position to say "fuck you, Taliban, we're the mighty USA and we do what we want!"....because that would invite attack, we'd have to fight back, and we'd end up stuck back where we're trying to GTFO.  And the Taliban  can't just start shooting at us, even if they really want to.....because they don't want that result (us staying and fighting them) either.  So, everyone wants the US gone, without there being combat.  Everyone makes the deals they can to accomplish that.  And the deal may change.  Several times.

Well, I was talking more in the what if scenario. That ship has now sailed I believe. I think decisions were made to cut losses, and get out, and that was that.

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1 minute ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Well, I was talking more in the what if scenario. That ship has now sailed I believe. I think decisions were made to cut losses, and get out, and that was that.

Fundamentally, I think that's right.  And more importantly, even if that WASN'T the decision, it's where we are now.  We are firmly in the "ripping the bandaid off" part of things.  It's painful as hell, but there's no getting around it now that we've started.

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why did we send our top intelligence guy instead of someone from state?
What is the CIA most famous for? What is Afghanistan's top export?

9524137719ae850294acaa088d8e0f62.jpg
Now we know why..

The CIA has launched clandestine operations to rescue Americans in and outside of Kabul in recent days, according to U.S. and other officials. Those operations are using American military helicopters but under the operation and control of the CIA, a typical arrangement in such operations.
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3 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I’ve definitely gone to rip bandaids off and then mentally pussed out at the very last moment while attempting to rip it off, resulting in more than one failed attempts. Seems analogous here too.

"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth"

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There's a bunch of people posting shit in here that they fucking know is not where it belongs.

It's like herding cats.    I'll be really clever and take this shot...because it's fun.

 

No.  Not really.  Some folks want to have a discussion of a real topic without all of the bullshit.  Y'all can't stop for 3 gotdam seconds.

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39 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

To add, the U.S. has evacuated 82,300 individuals so far - 19,000 today. 10,000 are at the airport now. 

It's been an amazing effort getting all these people out. Really incredible. 

Yep, testimony to the dedication and badassness of the troops, pilots and consular officers on the ground. 

If you watch flight radar24 it looks like a steady stream of aircraft in and out. Amazing operations on the behalf of those who performed it. Hope they all get 30 days of R&R with all the hookers and blow they want. 

So here we go folks, a new chapter in Afghanistan's history. It will be interesting to watch. 

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19 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Very busy, especially with the closing of Bagram, but it ain't LAX. 

 

Fun story. I was on a King air taking off from HKIA. About 10 feet off the ground our left engine seized. I mean the fucker would not even feather. I wake up my buddy who is sitting on the other side of the aisle. The South African pilots put us in the front rows since we had guns and the majority of the others (8 maybe) had never flown. So I smack him, point out the window and he sees the prop not moving. Well we do figure 8's around Kabul for about an hour slowly gaining altitude and trying to keep air space open. 

Pilot comes back to talk to us. Luck has it we were all at a bar the night before and had met. Dude was maybe 24, but a seasoned bush pilot. So here is the plan, he says in that bad ass Afrikaner accent. We are going to circle and dive in, at the last minute pulling up and we can only land on the right side, then slowly we will nose down and touch down on the left. He was worried there was something really wrong and the gears would collapse. He tells us he needs us to do two things. My buddy to open the door and me to keep the passengers from rushing. Ya know, incase of fire, etc. 

We circle, gain altitude and start to nose in. all you can hear from the cockpit is Danger, Danger, Danger... Then we hear a C-130 chime in, Kabul Tower, what the fuck is this plane doing? They forgot to tell the USAF/NATO aircraft there might be an emergency. Anyways, we land, dude does an amazing job, but we did nose in very hard, losing all the landing gear. As a dumb ass I jumped up as instructed, slammed into the bulkhead and knocked out a few teeth. But we landed, well kind of. Buddy opens the door, we jump out,  and siting on the tarmac bleeding we just went and sat down about 200 meters away. 

Buddy sits down next to me, takes off his shirt so I can stop the bleeding and then hands me a Marlboro. About a minute later a Belgium (Nato controlled HKIA) wanna be Sgt. Shultz comes up screaming at us for smoking on his runway. We start laughing since there is a twin engine aircraft blocking all ops and this fucking French fry eater wants us to stop smoking. He cared nothing about the fact we both had pistols on our armor and AK's. 

Anyways, TL:DNR. I was on the plane that shut down flight ops at HKIA for 24 hours. The next morning we got on the same type of airplane with the same pilot. We were all very hungover. 

 

shit that's one of the better personal stories i've seen on this website. I'd send you 9.95 but I just gave my monthly allotment to the TE room.

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5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Fundamentally, I think that's right.  And more importantly, even if that WASN'T the decision, it's where we are now.  We are firmly in the "ripping the bandaid off" part of things.  It's painful as hell, but there's no getting around it now that we've started.

No. There is another option. We can go back in, hard with lots of troops and retake that city. Basically, a new invasion on the scale of 2001. 
  
Right now, that doesn’t seem to be something we would consider doing at all. However, let the Taliban (which is not really an organized army following too-down orders) kill a few Americans, and then see what happens. Or kidnap a bunch. 
  
Which is why we’re kissing the Taliban’s asses right now, hoping nobody acts out. I also suspect at some point they’ll convince us to pay them tens of billions of dollars. 
  
It’s a mess and it doesn’t have to get neater. 

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4 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Very busy, especially with the closing of Bagram, but it ain't LAX. 

 

Fun story. I was on a King air taking off from HKIA. About 10 feet off the ground our left engine seized. I mean the fucker would not even feather. I wake up my buddy who is sitting on the other side of the aisle. The South African pilots put us in the front rows since we had guns and the majority of the others (8 maybe) had never flown. So I smack him, point out the window and he sees the prop not moving. Well we do figure 8's around Kabul for about an hour slowly gaining altitude and trying to keep air space open. 

Pilot comes back to talk to us. Luck has it we were all at a bar the night before and had met. Dude was maybe 24, but a seasoned bush pilot. So here is the plan, he says in that bad ass Afrikaner accent. We are going to circle and dive in, at the last minute pulling up and we can only land on the right side, then slowly we will nose down and touch down on the left. He was worried there was something really wrong and the gears would collapse. He tells us he needs us to do two things. My buddy to open the door and me to keep the passengers from rushing. Ya know, incase of fire, etc. 

We circle, gain altitude and start to nose in. all you can hear from the cockpit is Danger, Danger, Danger... Then we hear a C-130 chime in, Kabul Tower, what the fuck is this plane doing? They forgot to tell the USAF/NATO aircraft there might be an emergency. Anyways, we land, dude does an amazing job, but we did nose in very hard, losing all the landing gear. As a dumb ass I jumped up as instructed, slammed into the bulkhead and knocked out a few teeth. But we landed, well kind of. Buddy opens the door, we jump out,  and siting on the tarmac bleeding we just went and sat down about 200 meters away. 

Buddy sits down next to me, takes off his shirt so I can stop the bleeding and then hands me a Marlboro. About a minute later a Belgium (Nato controlled HKIA) wanna be Sgt. Shultz comes up screaming at us for smoking on his runway. We start laughing since there is a twin engine aircraft blocking all ops and this fucking French fry eater wants us to stop smoking. He cared nothing about the fact we both had pistols on our armor and AK's. 

Anyways, TL:DNR. I was on the plane that shut down flight ops at HKIA for 24 hours. The next morning we got on the same type of airplane with the same pilot. We were all very hungover. 

 

What year was this?

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16 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Maybe.  Keeping a shitload of Apaches in the air, armed and fueled (and they're helos, so they have limited range)....that's an entirely different logistical challenge.  My strong suspicion is that we no longer have the resources on the ground in Afghanistan to equip and maintain a bunch of attack helicopters.  We have an evac plan in place with a relatively secure perimeter in one location, we have some ability to venture out with personnel helos (some/all are likely armed, but I doubt we have many attack helicopters around) and ground vehicles for specific local missions, and we have some fixed wing aircraft providing cover and potential fire support if needed in a specific circumstance.  That is likely the full list of tools at our disposal.

If we want to succeed at our current mission -- getting our people out -- then we need to pursue a path that also keeps us from ending up in a shooting war with the Taliban right now.  Recall how I noted how Afghans, Persians, and their relatives view contracts?  They exist only so long as the advantage shifts, and then there's a new deal.  The "deal" can change moment to moment.  As the goal of both parties is "don't blow each other up right now," we are all just going to have to work on terms that accomplish that goal, driven by the dynamic on the ground in real-time.  We are not in a position to say "fuck you, Taliban, we're the mighty USA and we do what we want!"....because that would invite attack, we'd have to fight back, and we'd end up stuck back where we're trying to GTFO.  And the Taliban  can't just start shooting at us, even if they really want to.....because they don't want that result (us staying and fighting them) either.  So, everyone wants the US gone, without there being combat.  Everyone makes the deals they can to accomplish that.  And the deal may change.  Several times.

That could end up and a shit show, watch Blackhawk Down for reference. 

It takes a shit ton of support for sustained  air operations

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Western nations warn of possible attack at Kabul airport amid airlift

KABUL, AFGHANISTAN — Western nations warned Thursday of a possible attack on Kabul’s airport, where thousands have flocked as they try to flee Taliban-controlled Afghanistan in the waning days of a massive airlift. Britain said an attack could come within hours.

Several countries urged people to avoid the airport, where Belgium said there was a threat of a suicide bombing. But with just days left before the evacuation effort ends and American troops withdraw, few appeared to heed the call.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation-world/ct-aud-nw-kabul-airport-evacuation-threat-20210826-ywbkgm5bgnaeraprriptt6ij5m-story.html

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1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

That could end up and a shit show, watch Blackhawk Down for reference. 

It takes a shit ton of support for sustained  air operations

Yeah that's true, but they had poor support.  They'd been calling for additional equipment to adequately carry out their mission, and told they couldn't have it.

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49 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Yeah that's true, but they had poor support.  They'd been calling for additional equipment to adequately carry out their mission, and told they couldn't have it.

That is true, and those are the things that happen when you try to project a military presence thousands of miles from your home bases; not saying we shouldn't project that power. But our forces are far outnumbered at this point, and while air superiority can offset that, it takes a vast support system to sustain that airborne firepower.  
To be honest I'm kind of surprised that they (ISIS, Taliban, a disgruntled Afghani, etc) hasn't taken shots at the steady stream of flights in & out of the airport.

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