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deadshank

By deadshank
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deadshank

deadshank 24652

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AGC 2021 Inflation Report_Version7_0.pdf

There is so much going on in the construction industry nowadays.  Prices through the roof, labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, you name it and all the while demand has been high. 

The AGC just published this report of non-residential construction woes; however, it easily translates into residential construction woes.

I know we have an HVAC contractor, a handful of roofers, some builders, cabinet and trim guys here and even a stinking architect along with a few building material reps.

Along with the mutts that are in the business, there are quite a few guys in the help forum that have projects going or are being contemplated.

What have you, boys?  Let's hear your problems, how you are overcoming them, what you need help with and what are your hearing forecasted.

 

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11644

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I have posted this before, the last 18 months have felt like 4 or 5 years.  Its been completely panic to utter euphoria over and over.

Costs are a crapshoot.  Yeah lumber is down now but other materials supply, logistics, logistics costs, labor supply, labor costs are all fucked too extremely fucked.

TLDR. We aint done with this shit by a long shot

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deadshank

deadshank 24652

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2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I have posted this before, the last 18 months have felt like 4 or 5 years.  Its been completely panic to utter euphoria over and over.

Costs are a crapshoot.  Yeah lumber is down now but other materials supply, logistics, logistics costs, labor supply, labor costs are all fucked too extremely fucked.

TLDR. We aint done with this shit by a long shot

What segment are you in?

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

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I am getting busier than I was a month again, and now it's with new houses, not just renovations, and additions. I know I need to hire a draftsman, but I know the second I do it'll all come crashing down.  So I'll be hauling my CAD machine with me to the beach next week for vacation.  

I'm just amazed people haven't said fuck it those prices are just too high !!

There are worse problems to have. I could be a roofer.

 

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DonkeyCigars

DonkeyCigars 144

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Lumber is down, but good luck getting a framing crew to frame it. Hearing lots of stories of crews being poached by other builders or GC's just to up and leave a job or bail/ghost on another builder after agreements because there is a ton of money thrown around to get things built and people closed/moved in. Sounds like they can't build new homes fast enough.

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deadshank

deadshank 24652

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Only the basic shingles and in two colors are being produced at a rate where suppliers can stock inventory.  All specialty / high end shingles or non-high seller colors are order and wait. 
 

European slate supply chain is broke half in two and prices have gone up.  Order 6 months ahead of time required. North American quarried roof slate is staying in the ground until and order is placed and paid for.  
 

Clay roof tile (really nice Santa Ana stuff from Colombia) is a year out.  Verea from Spain is super automated and hasn’t experienced many problems outside of lacking ocean going containers to ship product.  Domestic extruded concrete tile is OK due to Boral’s plant being in Brookshire.  

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5308

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Cast in place concrete is insane now.  I’m not sure why because precast is about the same as it’s been but the last three or four big jobs I’ve let have come in very high on curb and other placed concrete.

 

And anything with control panels is a total crapshoot on schedule, because of the well known supply chain issues from Asia.

 

I am advising anyone who can wait to bid big projects to do so but of course everyone needs everything Right Now!

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deadshank

deadshank 24652

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11 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I am getting busier than I was a month again, and now it's with new houses, not just renovations, and additions. I know I need to hire a draftsman, but I know the second I do it'll all come crashing down.  So I'll be hauling my CAD machine with me to the beach next week for vacation.  

I'm just amazed people haven't said fuck it those prices are just too high !!

There are worse problems to have. I could be a roofer.

 

The amount of plans we see is amazing.   No slow down. 

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Reagan1k

Reagan1k 3024

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1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

And anything with control panels is a total crapshoot on schedule, because of the well known supply chain issues from Asia.

Correct.  Hell, just getting simple 16 gauge flexible cable is a nightmare and prices continue to rise.  If has a motor, sensor cable, or any circuitry in it, it's more expensive and takes longer to receive than ever before.

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LebongJames

LebongJames 1791

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We do plumbing, HVAC and electrical for RNC.

Busiest and craziest year. Every week is something new. Labor is through the roof, materials are consistently back ordered or shipping can’t get them to us.

Builders pretend to understand but they still bitch all day and all night.

On top of that we have been poached by competitors for some very tenured supers.

Money is great but everything else can go fuck itself.

  • Hook 'Em 1
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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52484

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I have zero building experience. I’m planning on building a 10x12 outbuilding in October. Neighbor has the know how and is a building materials rep. His current quote for wood is around $3500. Haven’t gotten a quote for foundation pour yet. Electrical was already dead headed in the general area when I had the rv plug installed. Hoping to get it done for under 10k. No plumbing. Gonna be fun, but I need prices to remain stable for a little bit longer, or decrease. 

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

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Greed is a nasty thing that will bite you in the ass at some point.  Part of this is greed mixed with a broken supply chain.

In the 06, 07, 08 construction boom I cut off any contractor who backed out of jobs because he could get more money from a guy down the street willing to pay more than what he quoting previously. I told em to fuck off, and never come looking for work from me again.   A couple went out of business, and a couple came back when times were lean in 09, 10, 11 begging for work. Telling them to fuck off again was gratifying. 

Killing the golden goose happens every 7-10 year it seems in the construction industry.

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T’Boo Ted Marshall

T’Boo Ted Marshall 2731

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2 hours ago, LebongJames said:

We do plumbing, HVAC and electrical for RNC.

Busiest and craziest year. Every week is something new. Labor is through the roof, materials are consistently back ordered or shipping can’t get them to us.

Builders pretend to understand but they still bitch all day and all night.

On top of that we have been poached by competitors for some very tenured supers.

Money is great but everything else can go fuck itself.

I stay out of RNC but being tempted by CNC due to some relationships.  I need a better workforce to feel comfortable witht it.  

 

 Where are you located LJ?  

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LebongJames

LebongJames 1791

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33 minutes ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

I stay out of RNC but being tempted by CNC due to some relationships.  I need a better workforce to feel comfortable witht it.  

 

 Where are you located LJ?  

CNC can be great but your estimator better be spot on. You can lose money real quick if your bid is off even a little.

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Assman

Assman 1830

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You guys see an end in sight for the madness?  Our revised bid for our home build has increased $200K since March.  Are there certain materials or selections that are easier and/or cheaper to come by now?  For example, if you tell me a black shingle is 2x cheaper than a gray shingle right now then I know what I'm switching to.

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DonkeyCigars

DonkeyCigars 144

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8 minutes ago, Assman said:

You guys see an end in sight for the madness?  Our revised bid for our home build has increased $200K since March.  Are there certain materials or selections that are easier and/or cheaper to come by now?  For example, if you tell me a black shingle is 2x cheaper than a gray shingle right now then I know what I'm switching to.

When picking the stone on a new build, I was told to pick 3 options and rank them and they would try to accomodate, but that I was only guaranteed one depending on the supply.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11644

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1 minute ago, Assman said:

You guys see an end in sight for the madness?  Our revised bid for our home build has increased $200K since March.  Are there certain materials or selections that are easier and/or cheaper to come by now?  For example, if you tell me a black shingle is 2x cheaper than a gray shingle right now then I know what I'm switching to.

Eventually…

prior to Delta(June) I would have guessed  supply chain madness and labor shortages would be getting better now.  Right now it seems like it’s going to get worse before it gets better for the near term(3-6months).

Work with the builder for materials selections .  Much of what will be cheaper will be what the vendors are running.  Most are limited on production so only running the most popular spec’s.

 

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deadshank

deadshank 24652

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9 hours ago, Assman said:

You guys see an end in sight for the madness?  Our revised bid for our home build has increased $200K since March.  Are there certain materials or selections that are easier and/or cheaper to come by now?  For example, if you tell me a black shingle is 2x cheaper than a gray shingle right now then I know what I'm switching to.

Order your appliances early.  Do no wait.  Your builder and trim carpenter can get the cut sheets and build the holes and cut outs without the appliances.  
 

Regarding shingles, most manufacturers are making only charcoal (black) and weathered wood colors right now and in their basic laminate dimensional shingle (GAF Timberline, CertainTeed Landmark, etc.). You can get other colors and designer shingles but you have to order way ahead of time.  

Edited by deadshank
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BigHorn'13

BigHorn'13 3363

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So here's one I think the Surly community can help with--I need a reliable vendor for steel, all types of specialty screws (torque, safety, etc) and laminate or plexiglass.  I need these things asap and my company needs tens of thousands of dollars worth (assuming price is competitive.)  Any help would be greatly appreciated. 

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11644

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23 minutes ago, BigHorn'13 said:

So here's one I think the Surly community can help with--I need a reliable vendor for steel, all types of specialty screws (torque, safety, etc) and laminate or plexiglass.  I need these things asap and my company needs tens of thousands of dollars worth (assuming price is competitive.)  Any help would be greatly appreciated. 

good-bear.gif

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deadshank

deadshank 24652

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The guy that ramrods our Woodlands / Conroe and beyond jobs had a presentation yesterday for a new start up on Lake Livingston.   We presented 14 months ago at $1.25 million all in.   Minor architectural changes, minor material and selection allowance changes since the initial schedule of values went out.  
 

Now the price is $1.56 million.  That’s a 25% bump.  
 

The property owner said “approved, send me a contract for a close in 30 days.”

Prices go up and demand remains consistent.  Certainly there is a tipping point somewhere. 

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pacman

pacman 7355

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On 8/26/2021 at 10:26 PM, Assman said:

You guys see an end in sight for the madness?  Our revised bid for our home build has increased $200K since March.  Are there certain materials or selections that are easier and/or cheaper to come by now?  For example, if you tell me a black shingle is 2x cheaper than a gray shingle right now then I know what I'm switching to.

Economist episode said this will not likely ho away for two years, at least.

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Jiggy-Z

Jiggy-Z 3432

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Concrete scheduling is difficult right now.

I'm on a job right now and it looks like I am going to need to move back my pour date due to plumber and GC incompetence. 

I have not called my Ready Mix co yet but I am expecting at least 3 weeks later, if I'm lucky.

PS.  It is a large pour ~1,000 cuyds, but still.

Prices are not too bad though, typical 5% annual bump.

Rebar has gone up.

I have a job up in Dallas and I can't even get a pier drilling company to call me back.

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T’Boo Ted Marshall

T’Boo Ted Marshall 2731

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Concrete scheduling is difficult right now.
I'm on a job right now and it looks like I am going to need to move back my pour date due to plumber and GC incompetence. 
I have not called my Ready Mix co yet but I am expecting at least 3 weeks later, if I'm lucky.
PS.  It is a large pour ~1,000 cuyds, but still.
Prices are not too bad though, typical 5% annual bump.
Rebar has gone up.
I have a job up in Dallas and I can't even get a pier drilling company to call me back.

Resi on pier drilling?
I used to be part of the ADSC and still know some of the guys there.
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Jiggy-Z

Jiggy-Z 3432

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8 minutes ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:


Resi on pier drilling?
I used to be part of the ADSC and still know some of the guys there.

6 piers for an art installation which is also made of cast in place concrete.

24" diameter.  17' depth w/ 1' rock penetration.  Possible casing needed, although not seen on Geotechnical. Job is next to a lake in Central Dallas .

Quick pay, easy money.

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5308

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I’ll tell you what has gone completely off the rails: raw land in the central Texas area.  Prices in multiple dollars per square foot for Jarrell, Taylor, Hutto, Marble Falls, San Marcos, and Manor.  Like to the point we’re going to see starter homes from Lennatmr, KB, and the doctor being around 400k.  It’s unhinged from reality and being fed by foreign money looking for return and security.  Mostly Indian and Chinese coming through investment groups.  And then there are some others (like Musk) who are buying land all over to ride the wave.

If you have family land right now is a really good time to sell.

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troph

troph 24781

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On 8/27/2021 at 12:57 PM, BigHorn'13 said:

So here's one I think the Surly community can help with--I need a reliable vendor for steel, all types of specialty screws (torque, safety, etc) and laminate or plexiglass.  I need these things asap and my company needs tens of thousands of dollars worth (assuming price is competitive.)  Any help would be greatly appreciated. 

You still looking ?  I described our steel problems in the build thread. We sourced our metal tray from Houston. Don’t recall where the beams came from but with design rework and sourcing vendors we saved over 60% (she used her crews to install for part of that savings) maybe more on a complex steel job. 

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troph

troph 24781

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My gf is stressed to the hilt. From cost increases to delays, we are looking for her exit in the next 2-3 years. She’s burned out. Stressed out, just not ok levels of stress.  The only good part is the impact on net worth and her ability to consider an early exit.
 

Plumbers and electricians are the worst vendors right now.   Costs are insane and every day it’s a new supply chain crisis. Not a great time to be a builder tbqh.  She heard hardie is back ordered til Jan 1. Appliances are a disaster. She’s got all of hers ordered way in advance or already in her possession. Windows are 16 weeks out. Steel is up, ACs who knows what else. 
 

Finishing up an 04 project that will sell for almost 2x what her last project on the same street sold for less than 4 years ago.  LT project is in design now but we are in no rush to start until next year.  The rest are customs and they are dicey for the same reasons. 
 

Still it’s not worth it even with increases in sales prices and values.
 

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