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40acredropout

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

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Lines I'm liking at first glance... tell me why I'm an idiot on these before I place them.

UTSA +6 @ Illinois   (UTSA returning 21 starters from a team that was within a TD of very good BYU and Louisiana teams last year)

OU -16.5 1H v Tulane (was supposed to played in LA but now in OK)

Arkansas -20 v Rice  (doesn't feel like enough points)

U60 Tennessee v Bowling Green  (mass exodus of talent out of Knoxville and BG was dead last in scoring per possession last season).
 

Edited by 40acredropout
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TornACL

TornACL 7698

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19 hours ago, 40acredropout said:

 

U60 Tennessee v Bowling Green  (mass exodus of talent out of Knoxville and BG was dead last in scoring per possession last season).
 

Interesting. Hadn't looked at that one. 

I like U66 in UCLA LSU. I only half watched the Hawaii game, but it seemed like Hawaii was terrible and gifted UCLA some points. I also don't see LSU's offense tearing it up on game 1 opening on the road. 

Feels like a 27-24 kind of game instead of 35-31.

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

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Will likely be adding Wake Forest 1H against Old Dominion when my book comes out with half lines.  Full game is at 31.5, as long as it's 16.5 or less I'll jump on it.

Old Dominion is another school who sat out 2020 and only won one game in 2019. 

Wake Forest returns all 11 starters on what was a ~top 50 offense and also 10 starters back on what was an admittedly meh defense.  

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21828

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On 8/31/2021 at 11:35 AM, TornACL said:

Interesting. Hadn't looked at that one. 

I like U66 in UCLA LSU. I only half watched the Hawaii game, but it seemed like Hawaii was terrible and gifted UCLA some points. I also don't see LSU's offense tearing it up on game 1 opening on the road. 

Feels like a 27-24 kind of game instead of 35-31.

I like the UCLA 27- LSU 24 better too. 

Line dropped to LSU -2.5.  If forced to bet that, I'd probably lay the points.

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

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One more play I'm liking.

Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech O52.5

  • Neither was very productive last year (109 and 107 in points per drive, respectively)
  • Note La Tech ranked 32 in PPD in 2019 but in 2020 was breaking in 3 new linemen, a new QB and a new OC 
  • They both air it the fuck out (1st and 25th in pass rate in 2020)
  • Both return 8 starters (including QB) on offense
  • I believe Pirate's offense takes a big step forward with a couple of transfers at receiver / a year under his belt with existing roster.

 

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brojangles2

brojangles2 786

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On 8/31/2021 at 3:24 PM, 40acredropout said:

Will likely be adding Wake Forest 1H against Old Dominion when my book comes out with half lines.  Full game is at 31.5, as long as it's 16.5 or less I'll jump on it.

Old Dominion is another school who sat out 2020 and only won one game in 2019. 

Wake Forest returns all 11 starters on what was a ~top 50 offense and also 10 starters back on what was an admittedly meh defense.  

Seeing 19.5. Kind of dicey. 

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SDG

SDG 3319

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On 9/2/2021 at 2:12 PM, Zeus said:

What you guys use to place bets?

I got VPN to be anywhere I need but I donno about putting a fake address. In the past I've done overseas betting with bitcoin and shit but there's gotta be an easier legalish way.

Bovada and mybookie are easy to use so I go between the two and I’ve never used bitcoin.  
 

 

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Assman

Assman 1830

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On 9/3/2021 at 7:46 PM, Assman said:

I hate betting week 1 but I'm only on Michigan v. W. Michigan U66.  Nothing else really jumps out at me but I also suck at betting.

Added Horns -8.5 late also.  2-0 today.

What's everyone think about Ole Miss-Louisville U76?  That's a lot of points for opening week when offenses usually start rusty.  Plus no Kiffin on the sidelines.

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Royale with cheese

Royale with cheese 1466

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Anybody watch the last 3-4 minutes of the aggy-Kent St. game? Line was aggy by around 28.5-29.5. With under 5 minutes and the score at 41-10 aggy, KSU tries a field goal. Down by 31 and they try a fucking field goal. Think that coach didn't take the points, and/or have some BMD's who did? Then, to make matters worse, the dumb-fuck aggy QB throws an interception with about a minute to go. Throws a fucking interception. And guess what? KSU runs three plays and, still down by 31, calls a timeout at :02 and tries another fucking field goal. That shit just ain't right. Thank the betting gods, the silly son of a bitch missed them both. Karma's a bitch sometimes. I had aggy -28.5 so fortunately for me this was one of those times. Jesus, why do I do this shit? 

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Hook1997

Hook1997 5351

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Took ND -7

Does anyone or has hired one of those pick services?   Wanted to see y’all’s experiences with that.  I had one in college during basketball season I think it was like $100 for the season promotion.  Guy went like 10 out of 11 and then wanted more money and I had only been betting like $20 a game when he had told me to do more.  Didn’t have the $800 he wanted but he gave one more pick then I was supposed to pay the next day so I went all in and lost, ended my gambling for a while.  

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Zeus

Zeus 6012

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13 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

Took ND -7

Does anyone or has hired one of those pick services?   Wanted to see y’all’s experiences with that.  I had one in college during basketball season I think it was like $100 for the season promotion.  Guy went like 10 out of 11 and then wanted more money and I had only been betting like $20 a game when he had told me to do more.  Didn’t have the $800 he wanted but he gave one more pick then I was supposed to pay the next day so I went all in and lost, ended my gambling for a while.  

Thats how it goes lol. I've stopped letting anyone's opinions get in my head and just go with my gut. Nothing worse than going against your gut and losing lol.

If anything I do the opposite of what some guys say because they are always fucking wrong. A bunch of people who aren't plugged into Texas FB had us losing outright or not beating the spread. People go off their opinion of what we've been for the last 3 years without looking at some important shit. New QB, new coarchs, ect..

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Zeus

Zeus 6012

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13 minutes ago, 40acredropout said:

Wow… went 5-0 this week to bring me to 10-1 on year.  Better to be (very) lucky than good.  I wish I was younger and still adding parlaying my weekly picks.  

Parlaying is a young man's game?

Congrats!

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bluto

bluto 4912

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Iowa was majorly boosted by two pick 6s, both score and forcing ind to be one dimensional catching up. On offense if you take away their 55 yd td run they were 3.3 ypp, not great at all.

Isu didn’t play poorly, held uni to 2ypc, slow pace game with both teams only running 60 plays. Purdy was very sharp 21-26. Isu just couldn’t finish drives.

Some books are up to 4’ and even 5 now.

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Assman

Assman 1830

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3 hours ago, bluto said:

Iowa was majorly boosted by two pick 6s, both score and forcing ind to be one dimensional catching up. On offense if you take away their 55 yd td run they were 3.3 ypp, not great at all.

Isu didn’t play poorly, held uni to 2ypc, slow pace game with both teams only running 60 plays. Purdy was very sharp 21-26. Isu just couldn’t finish drives.

Some books are up to 4’ and even 5 now.

Iowa also played a pretty good IU team while ISU played a pretty good FCS team.  Not completely apples to apples but I see your point.  It just always seems ISU chokes in this game.

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