2018-19 Texas Longhorns thread

[Machinator 32099]

6 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Lunardi still doesn't have us at last 4 in. 

This is what some of us have been trying to say, without sounding like we're happy with the season or supportive of the current regime.

Better hope he's wrong.

[dcar00 14382]

yeah. Lunardi also isn't considering Roach(our preceived best player was benched for 5 games).  If we reinstate him I think the committee will take that into account.

Its really hard to put OU and TCU in but not us given full year resume, unless you have a real problem with 16-16.

[PantsTent 2002]

I got a problem with 16-16.

 

[lemonandaturd 4285]

We don't belong in the NCAA tournament and I really don't want us to embarrass ourselves in the NIT.  

[TXSooner518 2439]

Its really hard to put OU and TCU in but not us given full year resume, unless you have a real problem with 16-16.

Assuming OU loses at KSU, beats the 10 seed, then loses to the 2 and UT loses to KU:

Texas is 5-10 vs Q1, 4-4 vs Q2, 4-2 vs Q3 and 3-0 vs Q4. They have 4 losses to teams with no at-large hope at all, two of those losses at home, and 7 wins over at-large hopefuls.

OU is 4-11 vs Q1, 8-2 vs Q2, 7-0 vs Q3, and 0-0 vs Q4. They have 1 loss to a team with no at-large hope on the road. They have 6 or 7 wins over at-large hopefuls depending on how you feel about Creighton.

Texas has more elite wins but 12 to 9 in top 2 Q wins and 19 to 13 in top 3 Q wins plus Texas has worse losses.

TCU only has 4 wins over at large teams with 2 losses to non at-larges. TCU also has no Q3 or 4 losses.

Those two Q3 losses are a big drag on Texas. Switch them and UT is 18-13 and locked up.

[Machinator 32099]

Jaxson Hayes wins a bunch of Big 12 honors:

-Freshman of the Year

-All Big 12 2nd Team

-All Big 12 Newcomer Team

-All Big 12 Defensive Team

-All Big 12 Freshman Team

 

Coleman and Roach get Honorable Mention for the All Big 12 teams.

[Burt Macklin 19053]

On 3/9/2019 at 1:08 PM, ClubWhatever said:

Our two best players, Roach and Hayes will be gone next year.  We will only have one experienced guard who is good enough to win consistently in the big 12 in Ramey.  Coleman is a defensive liability and just not consistent enough as a scorer.  Next year is going to be just as brutal if not more so. 

This is about as good of an argument as one can make for getting rid of Shaka now. This team sucked this year and he’ll have a much less talented team next year.

having said that, as long as we don’t lose 3 or more guys to coaching-change related attrition, this roster will be plenty talented next year for a quality coach to finish above .500 in conference.

the buyout is expensive but it only drops 3 million next year. Is $3 million worth our program being absolutely horrible next year, it killing our recruiting and leaving the program in a generally horrible state for the next coach? 

If we fire Shaka this year, a new coach will have a lot to work with and can put together a pretty good first year that will help him recruit moving forward and keep the overall talent level of the program relatively high.  If we keep Shaka another year, I can see this program being in a much, much worse spot this time next year.

 

[Machinator 32099]

10 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

This is about as good of an argument as one can make for getting rid of Shaka now. This team sucked this year and he’ll have a much less talented team next year.

having said that, as long as we don’t lose 3 or more guys to coaching-change related attrition, this roster will be plenty talented next year for a quality coach to finish above .500 in conference.

the buyout is expensive but it only drops 3 million next year. Is $3 million worth our program being absolutely horrible next year, it killing our recruiting and leaving the program in a generally horrible state for the next coach? 

If we fire Shaka this year, a new coach will have a lot to work with and can put together a pretty good first year that will help him recruit moving forward and keep the overall talent level of the program relatively high.  If we keep Shaka another year, I can see this program being in a much, much worse spot this time next year.

 

I agree that keeping Shaka is a terrible long-term proposition, but we have no idea what the new coach will have to work with until attrition shakes out.

[Burt Macklin 19053]

Just now, Machinator said:

I agree that keeping Shaka is a terrible long-term proposition, but we have no idea what the new coach will have to work with until attrition shakes out.

Right but waiting another year won’t make that any better. Shaka’s next recruiting class won’t be better than this one, so you’re all but guaranteed to have less talent and have the program being in a way worse spot next year (due to a potentially really bad season next year), regardless of how hard we’re hit by attrition from Shaka leaving, be it this year or next.

 

[Machinator 32099]

3 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Right but waiting another year won’t make that any better. Shaka’s next recruiting class won’t be better than this one, so you’re all but guaranteed to have less talent and have the program being in a way worse spot next year (due to a potentially really bad season next year), regardless of how hard we’re hit by attrition from Shaka leaving, be it this year or next.

 

I agree. But it's something we need to keep in mind, especially if next season with a new coach ends up being a washout.

[Burt Macklin 19053]

1 minute ago, Machinator said:

I agree. But it's something we need to keep in mind, especially if next season with a new coach ends up being a washout.

Sure but still, new coach minus 2 or so guys off next year’s roster > Shaka with everyone currently expected to return.

 

[Machinator 32099]

6 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Sure but still, new coach minus 2 or so guys off next year’s roster > Shaka with everyone currently expected to return.

 

No disagreement there.

The two players I really want to hang onto are Ramey and Hepa. I think Coleman can be maximized by a better coach as well. 

As for the 2019 recruits, I really hope that Will Baker (being a local kid) likes UT more than he likes Shaka, and I think Kai Jones is a stud as well.

Edited March 10, 2019 by Machinator

[Red Five 40953]

31 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

the buyout is expensive but it only drops 3 million next year. Is $3 million worth our program being absolutely horrible next year, it killing our recruiting and leaving the program in a generally horrible state for the next coach? 

This part drives me nuts. Like CDC is going to bring back a coach who needs to be canned for another year in order to shave $3 million off of $13 million. 

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

6 minutes ago, Red Five said:

This part drives me nuts. Like CDC is going to bring back a coach who needs to be canned for another year in order to shave $3 million off of $13 million. 

right. he can get $3m covered by motivated donors

[Machinator 32099]

I bet he could if push comes to shove, but CDC is taking the "just because we can doesn't mean we should" route. We're going to need every dollar we have if A&M guns for Buzz as well and he's number 1 on our list.

[Burt Macklin 19053]

4 minutes ago, Machinator said:

I bet he could if push comes to shove, but CDC is taking the "just because we can doesn't mean we should" route. We're going to need every dollar we have if A&M guns for Buzz as well and he's number 1 on our list.

Yeah, I've never thought the question is if we could actually get the money. The question is whether CDC wants to spend political/fundraising capital on this move. I think it's definitely worth it, and I'd bet CDC feels the same way considering how we've closed out conference play, but we won't know for a little while longer most likely. 

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

10 minutes ago, Machinator said:

I bet he could if push comes to shove, but CDC is taking the "just because we can doesn't mean we should" route. We're going to need every dollar we have if A&M guns for Buzz as well and he's number 1 on our list.

I agree with the first statement-- my post was simply to indicate that if it comes down to $3m, Del Conte isn't going to be stopped from doing what he thinks is right, by a fraction of the operating budget.

The second part doesn't make a ton of sense. If we're stuck with Smart, there IS no bidding war for Williams. The $3m has to be retired whether directly out of the athletic department, via donation, or by jointly reducing Smart's buyout. 

The bidding war part is interesting. On the one hand, at the DNA level, I think Texas wants to win in basketball more than A&M does. Buzz Williams is worth more to us; I think we'd be willing to pay him more in a vacuum. But this won't happen in a vacuum, so, on the other hand, if they have a chance to beat us for something we both want, I'm pretty sure they'd bid like Elaine Benes trying to win JFK's golf clubs. Woodward is savvy enough to know what it would be worth in terms of goodwill to "steal" a coach from Texas. 

Edited March 10, 2019 by SwanderedTalent

[Red Five 40953]

Agree with all of that, but I doubt Buzz would be our first choice, and that we’d be in competition with those creatures over there.

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Catdaddyhorn 3448]

Our two best players, Roach and Hayes will be gone next year.  We will only have one experienced guard who is good enough to win consistently in the big 12 in Ramey.  Coleman is a defensive liability and just not consistent enough as a scorer.  Next year is going to be just as brutal if not more so. 

You're forgetting about Andrew Jones assuming he comes back healthy. A fully healthy Andrew Jones is an upgrade over Kerwin in terms of overall smarts and shooting. Disagree on Coleman being a defensive liability. He's an adequate defender unless he's outmatched in terms of size.

 

[Ghost of Shag 2619]

9 hours ago, Machinator said:

 

Screw him. Wish they’d have sat him for the year.

[dcar00 14382]

On 3/10/2019 at 3:05 PM, SwanderedTalent said:

right. he can get $3m covered by motivated donors

if he comes to them and says I can get  "coach X" this year( or maybe a list of 2 to 3) or we can wait and convinces them, the  extra 3M to wait a year when you don't know what will be available is not a huge hurdle. 

someone a while back said Shaka had a big money guy in his corner.  that could be a problem if true.  

[Goo Punch 4275]

i can't imagine shaka having any major players in his corner. 

[EuroHorn 3272]

Just now, Goo Punch said:

i can't imagine shaka having any major players in his corner. 

I’d say he has every major player in his corner. The ones that are opponents 

[Goo Punch 4275]

i'm sorry for this cryptic post, but i have some info about next year's team that, because it comes to me second hand i don't feel comfortable posting about it publicly. it's nothing major just some info that I as a UT hooped fan was interested in. so again nothing major, just some player info that i heard. pm me if you like and i'll share it with you. 

[Js1 85636]

[Katfid54 8635]

So Derka says "PM Derka."  I feel like this is a trap...

[Pancho 45118]

Katz has us in as an 11 seed

[Machinator 32099]

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Present in 90 out of 138 brackets.

[Knoxtnhorn 6067]

48 minutes ago, Machinator said:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Present in 90 out of 138 brackets.

I've been poring over these brackets for a couple of days now.  I really don't see how the Kansas game is anything other than a play-in game for Texas.  All the numbers are there, right now, to put TX in.  Said numbers would look even better with a win over KU.  That being said, there's a huge psychological hurdle to putting a .500 team in.  Really kind of sucks because if one believes in models and SOS, then Texas should be in.  I've always been a huge proponent of SOS in all sports; not just when it helps my alma mater.  After Thursday, TX will have played 20 of its 32 games against Top 50 teams (Sagarin).

One of the brackets - maybe USA Today - is supposed to mirror the data that the selection committee will be using on Sunday.  I was comparing said bracket to Sagarin.  I know Sagarin isn't used by the committee; however, I take it into account per old habits.  Sagarin has TX at 33, #5 SOS, 19 games v. Top 50 teams.  A couple of the teams they had over TX were:

Georgetown - 74th, 62nd SOS, 7 games against the Top 50

Belmont - 59, 236th Sos, 1 game against the Top 50

Georgetown, for example, has 3 fewer losses than TX.  Yes, Shaka sucks and all, but I'm pretty sure Texas would be able to make up these three games if they were able to flip 12 of their Top 50 matchups to games outside the Top 50.

Also, some of the brackets I saw had Baylor and OU squarely in as 8/9 seeds with TX out.  Sagarin has OU 29th, TX 33rd, and Baylor 39th.

 

 

 

[ATLLonghorn 857]

I thought it was interesting that Texas is only in nine more brackets than Indiana, the last team in, but still has a higher average seeding than eight at large teams. A loss to Kansas is going to make Texas a significant wild card on selection Sunday.

[Machinator 32099]

Margin for error just got a little smaller, thanks to St. Mary's.

[Braff Zacklin 13668]

While I want us to get an invite and advance as far as possible, I won't be broken hearted if the committee snubs us for being 16-16.

Top 20 talent, bottom 50 teamwork and execution. We made our own bed.

[Pancho 45118]

First four out now on bracketmatrix

[Goo Punch 4275]

from Bilas's rankings:




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Pancho 45118]

Still first four out, and only in 62 of 112 brackets. 

[Katfid54 8635]

LOL that Indiana is the "strangest team ever" up for consideration for a tourney bid, and Texas's issue is identical to Indiana's.

[Burt Macklin 19053]

2 hours ago, Pancho Negro said:

Still first four out, and only in 62 of 112 brackets. 

Seems like it’ll be simple. 

Beat Kansas and we’re in. Lose to Kansas and we’re out.

[TXSooner518 2439]

LOL that Indiana is the "strangest team ever" up for consideration for a tourney bid, and Texas's issue is identical to Indiana's.

Indiana a bit odder bc they went 1-12 in 13 games at one point. Similar overall profiles tho yep.

[Machinator 32099]

Two notable differences between Texas and Indiana:

1) Texas has a great noncon SOS. Indiana's is in the 200s. Texas also has a better overall SOS, though the difference isn't as stark.

2) Texas has 1-2 bad losses (depending on how Providence does in the Big East tournament) whereas Indiana has none.

Edited March 13, 2019 by Machinator

[satyanash 14642]

UNC-Greensboro of all programs is taking shots at us for whatever reason

 

[Braff Zacklin 13668]

Welp, 16-16 after the Big 12 Tournament. That should close the book on the season, but I guess we'll see.

Hope Jaxson's injury isn't serious.

Extremely disappointing season. Is there a term for "reverse Gestalt?" If so, that's Texas hoops--we are much less than the sum of our parts.

[satyanash 14642]

Fire Shaka and decline the NIT bid. Best way to move forward.

[satyanash 14642]

 

[Red Five 40953]

11-16 since Thanksgiving.

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Valmy77 13286]

5 hours ago, satyanash said:

UNC-Greensboro of all programs is taking shots at us for whatever reason

 

I mean it seems like they should be comparing themselves to a good team instead of us to prove they belong in the tournament. But whatever. I am sure there are several NIT teams that have less than 28 wins.

[Machinator 32099]

Just now, Valmy77 said:

I mean it seems like they should be comparing themselves to a good team instead of us to prove they belong in the tournament. But whatever. I am sure there are several NIT teams that have less than 28 wins.

Before losing today we were just beneath the cutline, in all likelihood. We were the exact profile of team they are trying to leapfrog for a bid.

[Valmy77 13286]

20 minutes ago, Red Five said:

11-16 since Thanksgiving.

We lollygag around the front court, we lollygag around the back court. 11-16. How did we ever win 11? It's a miracle.