2018-19 Texas Longhorns thread

[txhorns 2413]

As with all things concerning this team, we could be elite or we could suck.  A healthy AJ1 could shoot 45%.  Roach at 40%. Febres 40%.  Coleman, DO and Long at 35%.  Hepa and Ramey at 30%.  That would be pretty damn good.  That doesn't all likely happen.  I bet we are slightly above average from deep.

[Goo Punch 4275]

There's no chance we're an elite 3-point shooting team. Elite teams shoot more than 40% from deep. There's every chance we could be terrible. My guess is we end up somewhere in the mid-low 100's as a team from deep.

 

edit- from last year:

150)IUPUI- .355

200)UAB- .345

so,

Chances we shoot 40% or higher as a team- 0%

Chances we finish outside the top 200 as a team- 50/50, with worse odds if we don't see huge improvement in shot selection and offensive aptitude.

Edited July 20, 2018 by Goo Punch

[Js1 85579]

40%?

No fucking way. I'd be happy with finishing 35-37%.  Even I feel like 37% is pushing it unless Febres and Coleman make big strides, Long can match his career percentage, Roach can hit 36% again and DO finds his (a?) stroke.

That's a lot of fucking "ifs"

Granted, Mo's 27.5% is gone and Sims doesn't bother taking those shots.

Edited July 20, 2018 by Js1

[Catdaddyhorn 3447]

38% would've got us in the top 50% last year.

Top 100 is 36.4%

Top 125 is 35.8%

Top 150 is 35.5%

Given that we were #321 at 32% last year the lower 100s would be outstanding. 

[Goo Punch 4275]

On 7/19/2018 at 2:27 PM, dogbreath said:

Who will be Texas' best player next year?

Who will be Texas' best player in the last three minutes of the game?

Of the returning players, who will have made the greatest improvement?

How many (and who) of the new players will have significant playing time?

How will B12 coaches attack and defend this Texas team?  

 

 

 

 

bumping to encourage more people to respond. 

Edited July 22, 2018 by Goo Punch

[Rockethorn1978 6102]

I will go with roach being our best player, his a senior wanting to improve to get drafted and I think he has the drive to get better this summer.

if roach is our best player for me I’d want him with the ball or getting open to get the ball.

coleman will be most improved.

Other coaches will pack the lane and make Texas prove they can consistently hit the three ball to beat them. Lots of switching ball screens and sagging off backside to protect the lane.

[Machinator 32099]

My opinions mirror Derka's. I think Ramey will contribute, as well, in the latter stages of conference play.

Liddell and Febres are the wild cards.

[ChickenSandwich 9853]

Best player: Coleman

ball at the end of game Roach

most improved: DO

young guys to play any Front court who can rebound and any back court who can shoot in games. No idea on incoming. 

I think teams will still pack the lane and dare Texas to beat them shooting from the outside. They will also try to harass Coleman as the only true (not incoming) ball handler on the team. If Roach is forced to play PG we will regress further. He was improved last season, but very mechanical in his offense. Not a person to feature on that end of the floor. 

*100% Jones is default best player 

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Catdaddyhorn 3447]

According to spotrac D.J has made nearly $36M so far in his career and he's still owed nearly $15M on his current contract.  Not bad for an undersized PG once thought to be a 4 year player with little chance at the NBA. Additionally, I vaguely remember when he left for the league he still had a 4.0 GPA

Edited July 23, 2018 by Catdaddyhorn

[Jhawk 1075]

I believe evry champion in the last 10-15 years (with the exception of UCONN) has shot something like 37%+ from 3 point range.  To compete in the tourney you have to make shots from outside.  With the way the game is going now (and Nova has proven this) 3 point offense and defense are probably the 2 most important stats in the tourney.

[Goo Punch 4275]

you have to have guys who can really handle and guys who can really shoot to win in the tourney, no doubt about it. i believe we have someone who can really handle in Matt Coleman, but i fear that once again we will lack anyone (much less multiple guys) who can really shoot. Kerwin Roach is the x factor here. If he can shoot ~40% from 3P on 4+ attempts per game then that's a game changer. if he can really develop a solid handle then that too is a game changer. and, although it's a long shot, having a fully healthy andrew jones would also be a game changer. 

at the end of the day it's going to come down to guard play for us, and while we have plenty of guards on the team, i still have my doubts that they'll be able to shoot and handle the ball well enough to lift us towards anything substantial, particularly with how weak our front court projects to be. with our relatively easy non conference schedule we should probably be able to win 20 games and make the tourney, but i can't see us challenging for a league title or a run into the second weekend of the tourney.

Edited July 23, 2018 by Goo Punch

[Horny Bull 2766]

 

[Goo Punch 4275]

good for him. 🤘🏼 

[Goo Punch 4275]

 

[texasstrong12 4668]

Jones is definitely looking healthier. 

[Goo Punch 4275]

 

[IDIOTsavant 8502]

1 hour ago, Goo Punch said:

 

Know nothing about his game, but in that clip, that dude is straight up Larry Nance (the Original, not Jr. - he was smoother).

Edited July 24, 2018 by IDIOTsavant

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Bitterwhiteguy 153]

On 7/22/2018 at 12:03 PM, Machinator said:

My opinions mirror Derka's. I think Ramey will contribute, as well, in the latter stages of conference play.

Liddell and Febres are the wild cards.

It will be earlier than that.

[Machinator 32099]

 

[dogbreath 434]

On 7/25/2018 at 4:16 PM, Bitterwhiteguy said:

It will be earlier than that.

Missed this article.  I was high on Ramey having a significant role and this article doesn't dissuade me.  

Perimeter touch, playmaking will allow Texas PG Courtney Ramey to cement role in rotation

"He’s really shot the ball well in our skill workout; probably better than any of our other guards. His work ethic has been terrific,” Smart said of Ramey, adding that he was in the gym at 6:00 a.m. ahead of a 6:45 a.m. workout"

 

[Goo Punch 4275]

18 minutes ago, dogbreath said:

Missed this article.  I was high on Ramey having a significant role and this article doesn't dissuade me.  

Perimeter touch, playmaking will allow Texas PG Courtney Ramey to cement role in rotation

"He’s really shot the ball well in our skill workout; probably better than any of our other guards. His work ethic has been terrific,” Smart said of Ramey, adding that he was in the gym at 6:00 a.m. ahead of a 6:45 a.m. workout"

 

eh, that article made me roll my eyes a bit. according to that article Courtney Ramey is a 6'4" true PG with great court vision who can score at all three levels, has the shooting touch of a shooting guard, is a lockdown defender, and a great offensive rebounder. wow, sounds like we signed a sophomore Michael Carter-Williams with a three point shot.

 

don't get me wrong, i'm high on Ramey too; he could be an all-conference player or even an nba player one day, i just hate articles like that. i've been reading that same article for 15 years now about various Texas commits, and while you sometimes get an Andrew Jones or a Daniel Gibson, you also sometimes get a Mike Williams or a Dion Dowell, particularly when the recruit in question isn't some sure fire, one-and-done, 5 star stud. again, to be *crystal clear*, I am high on Courtney Ramey, he's my favorite signing of the class, and i think he'll be a really good player by his sophomore year- i just megaloathe these ubiquitous articles on recruits which paint them as can't-miss studs with only strengths and no weaknesses.

[Machinator 32099]

25 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

eh, that article made me roll my eyes a bit. according to that article Courtney Ramey is a 6'4" true PG with great court vision who can score at all three levels, has the shooting touch of a shooting guard, is a lockdown defender, and a great offensive rebounder. wow, sounds like we signed a sophomore Michael Carter-Williams with a three point shot.

 

don't get me wrong, i'm high on Ramey too; he could be an all-conference player or even an nba player one day, i just hate articles like that. i've been reading that same article for 15 years now about various Texas commits, and while you sometimes get an Andrew Jones or a Daniel Gibson, you also sometimes get a Mike Williams or a Dion Dowell, particularly when the recruit in question isn't some sure fire, one-and-done, 5 star stud. again, to be *crystal clear*, I am high on Courtney Ramey, he's my favorite signing of the class, and i think he'll be a really good player by his sophomore year- i just megaloathe these ubiquitous articles on recruits which paint them as can't-miss studs with only strengths and no weaknesses.

I thought it was a decent (if maybe one-sided) article, but the quote from Shaka was an eyebrow-raiser:

““He’s really shot the ball well in our skill workout; probably better than any of our other guards. His work ethic has been terrific,” Smart said of Ramey”

Given that we also have Kerwin Roach and Elijah Long on the team, he's the next coming of Steph Curry or the other guards' shooting has regressed horribly. Most likely he's just a bright-eyed practice warrior who will have to take his lumps as a freshman before actually becoming a good college shooter.

The Liddell article was more balanced: https://www.burntorangenation.com/basketball/2018/7/14/17399040/gerald-liddell-texas-longhorns-basketball-recruiting-shaka-smart

[texasstrong12 4668]

I don't know how it will translate as freshman but it was always funny seeing people project this class as "not adding shooters". 

Both Ramey and Hepa were above average to elite HS shooters. 

Edited July 27, 2018 by texasstrong12

[Machinator 32099]

Just now, texasstrong12 said:

I don't know how it will translate as freshman but it was always funny seeing people project this class as "not adding shooters". 

Both Ramey and Hepa are above average to elite HS shooters. 

I don't think anyone's said this class doesn't have shooters. Just not instant-impact (there's that phrase again) shooters. I'd love to be wrong.

My hope, though, is that we don't have to rely on the freshmen being sharpshooters from the get-go because some of the guys already on the team developed their shot further, particularly Febres. Hopefully Roach maintains from his post-injury streak and Long shoots as well as he did against good competition playing for MSM. And if AJ1 can give us something, that's just gravy.

[texasstrong12 4668]

2 minutes ago, Machinator said:

I don't think anyone's said this class doesn't have shooters.

nah, there have been plenty of posters in the recruiting thread that have argued we don't have shooters in this class. 

[Machinator 32099]

9 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

nah, there have been plenty of posters in the recruiting thread that have argued we don't have shooters in this class. 

OK, you're right, I read through it and people were ragging on lack of shooters. Though, to be fair, most of that was before we signed Ramey and before Roach said he was returning. It does seem people are underrating Hepa's potential as a shooter.

I'm actually pretty pleased with this incoming class, so far. I just hope the longer-curve guys such as Cunningham and Hayes can be more productive than Banks and Young ended up being for us.

[texasstrong12 4668]

13 minutes ago, Machinator said:

OK, you're right, I read through it and people were ragging on lack of shooters. Though, to be fair, most of that was before we signed Ramey and before Roach said he was returning. It does seem people are underrating Hepa's potential as a shooter.

I'm actually pretty pleased with this incoming class, so far. I just hope the longer-curve guys such as Cunningham and Hayes can be more productive than Banks and Young ended up being for us.

It's always tough to project players as freshman but Shaka definitely prioritized shooting in this class. For whatever reason, people don't view Hepa and Ramey as shooters when they were both really good HS shooters. 

Funny thing is, probably the most undervalued "shooter" in this class is Cunningham. OU, Gonzaga, Texas all offered him last year around this time because of his shooting on the AAU circuit. I don't think Cunningham is an elite shooter by any means but he's definitely a plus shooter. 

I'm too lazy to go find the stats but Cunningham was shooting close to 50% from the 3 on the AAU circuit from what I remember. 

https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/adidas-gauntlet-sunday-christian-brown-backs-up-five-star-status

"In arguably the most impressive showing of the weekend, Cunningham went for 34 points and 13 rebounds in a win over Game Elite. He connected on five of his nine attempts from three-point range, and two of them were from a few feet behind the arc."

Edited July 27, 2018 by texasstrong12

[Catdaddyhorn 3447]

1 hour ago, texasstrong12 said:

I don't know how it will translate as freshman but it was always funny seeing people project this class as "not adding shooters". 

Both Ramey and Hepa were above average to elite HS shooters. 

In fairness a lot of those comments were made before Ramey committed. And still 2 shooters out of a 5 man class is a bit lean.  

Edited July 27, 2018 by Catdaddyhorn

[dogbreath 434]

15 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

eh, that article made me roll my eyes a bit. according to that article Courtney Ramey is a 6'4" true PG with great court vision who can score at all three levels, has the shooting touch of a shooting guard, is a lockdown defender, and a great offensive rebounder. wow, sounds like we signed a sophomore Michael Carter-Williams with a three point shot.

 

don't get me wrong, i'm high on Ramey too; he could be an all-conference player or even an nba player one day, i just hate articles like that. i've been reading that same article for 15 years now about various Texas commits, and while you sometimes get an Andrew Jones or a Daniel Gibson, you also sometimes get a Mike Williams or a Dion Dowell, particularly when the recruit in question isn't some sure fire, one-and-done, 5 star stud. again, to be *crystal clear*, I am high on Courtney Ramey, he's my favorite signing of the class, and i think he'll be a really good player by his sophomore year- i just megaloathe these ubiquitous articles on recruits which paint them as can't-miss studs with only strengths and no weaknesses.

And yet, I enjoy reading these type of articles, because I'll take the excitement of having an Andrew Jones or Daniel Gibson any day.  And I don't really care about the Mike Williams or Dion Dowells, because nothing is promised and the disappointment belongs to them and not me.  Nothing more disappointed me than PSJ losing in the final.  Not because I was a UH fan, but because I played against most of those guys in high school and they were a representation of me and the quality of basketball then.  

And I'd agree with you on loathing the multiple articles overstating the promise of our players, but I haven't found any besides this one and the two related ones.  We ain't KU or Duke or UT football--frankly in the grand scheme of things no one gives a shit about the program.  Check out how many fans show up at home games.  Check out how many articles on UT basketball there are in the pay sites.  Frankly, I am joyful when an article comes along.  It beats looking at my own dick.

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Bitterwhiteguy 153]

21 hours ago, Machinator said:

I thought it was a decent (if maybe one-sided) article, but the quote from Shaka was an eyebrow-raiser:

““He’s really shot the ball well in our skill workout; probably better than any of our other guards. His work ethic has been terrific,” Smart said of Ramey”

Given that we also have Kerwin Roach and Elijah Long on the team, he's the next coming of Steph Curry or the other guards' shooting has regressed horribly. Most likely he's just a bright-eyed practice warrior who will have to take his lumps as a freshman before actually becoming a good college shooter.

The Liddell article was more balanced: https://www.burntorangenation.com/basketball/2018/7/14/17399040/gerald-liddell-texas-longhorns-basketball-recruiting-shaka-smart

He said that about Febres last year, too. So maybe that should be your baseline for the Ramey quote; no small part of bringing in freshmen is instilling confidence, and coaches know they read the quotes. It might be less a reflection of the other players than a message to that specific player.

Edited July 27, 2018 by Bitterwhiteguy

[Goo Punch 4275]

Sina looks like he's filling out nicely.

[Blotto 23579]

The thing about good 3 pt shooting teams is that they usually structure the offense to make sure they get/take good 3 pt shots. That has not been my observation with Texas. 

[Catdaddyhorn 3447]

The thing about good 3 pt shooting teams is that they usually structure the offense to make sure they get/take good 3 pt shots. That has not been my observation with Texas. 

I disagree. We've missed more wide open threes than any team in the conference. Dudes just can't knock it down.

[Goo Punch 4275]

5 minutes ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

6 hours ago, Blotto said:

The thing about good 3 pt shooting teams is that they usually structure the offense to make sure they get/take good 3 pt shots. That has not been my observation with Texas. 

I disagree. We've missed more wide open threes than any team in the conference. Dudes just can't knock it down.

yeah we missed a bunch of open shots but we also took more stupid threes than any team i've ever seen, zero hyperbole. our shot selection was *terrible*.

[Catdaddyhorn 3447]

5 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

yeah we missed a bunch of open shots but we also took more stupid threes than any team i've ever seen, zero hyperbole. our shot selection was *terrible*.

No disagreement here.  When you miss as much of we did you're able to fill up all sorts of categories of shots taken.  Open shots,  contested shots, what tha fuck shots, are you fucking kidding me shots, etc. 

Edited July 29, 2018 by Catdaddyhorn

[Goo Punch 4275]

if you think about, losing young and davis should be addition by subtraction in this category, and DO, Coleman, and Febres *have* to be better shooters this year. Also, I spent a lot of time last year complimenting Roach's form from outside- it was evident that he'd spent a lot of time working on his shot. I won't be surprised if he shoots 40% from deep this year, and I'm usually the pessimist around here. So in the end, I do think that we should be much improved in this area, but I still question if we have the talent and poise to actually be a team that shoots well overall. I think we'll have a few games where we hit 11 or 12 from deep as well as a few where we go 3/18.

[Catdaddyhorn 3447]

if you think about, losing young and davis should be addition by subtraction in this category, and DO, Coleman, and Febres *have* to be better shooters this year. Also, I spent a lot of time last year complimenting Roach's form from outside- it was evident that he'd spent a lot of time working on his shot. I won't be surprised if he shoots 40% from deep this year, and I'm usually the pessimist around here. So in the end, I do think that we should be much improved in this area, but I still question if we have the talent and poise to actually be a team that shoots well overall. I think we'll have a few games where we hit 11 or 12 from deep as well as a few where we go 3/18.

I'm with you. Although Davis was a much better shooter when contested (barking carnival or burnt orange nation had a blurb mentioning this stat) he had to lead our team on shots/gm off the dribble or at inopportune times with Dylan right up there rivaling him. And Young would rate if you measured it on a per minute basis. And I'm hopeful that Frebes will thrive playing alongside multiple guys in Coleman, Roach, Ramey, Long, and hopefully Jones who can drive and kick. Overall I want more movement without the ball from our perimeter players. There's no need for us to be as stagnant as we have been off the ball over the past 2 seasons, especially when we aren't going to be looking to the post to get buckets as much as we have been the past 2 years.

[Braff Zacklin 13664]

16 hours ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

22 hours ago, Blotto said:

The thing about good 3 pt shooting teams is that they usually structure the offense to make sure they get/take good 3 pt shots. That has not been my observation with Texas. 

I disagree. We've missed more wide open threes than any team in the conference. Dudes just can't knock it down.

 

16 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

yeah we missed a bunch of open shots but we also took more stupid threes than any team i've ever seen, zero hyperbole. our shot selection was *terrible*.

You're both right--we take terrible shots and we can't shoot for shit when we have a wide-open look.

It can only get better, right?

[Guest Lobo]

to Purdue, VCU, Georgia, Arkansas, Providence...you may add North Carolina for sure (going to be the heavy favorite to win that 4-game pod).  We'll play them first in Las Vegas on the night of Thanksgiving.  The other game is a tossup (UCLA and Michigan State---could see either of them winning).  We'll lose to UNC and play loser of that game at 3:00p Friday, immediately after our football game @ Kansas.  I could see us stealing that game as Shaka has had glimpses of greatness against marquee opponents.  

 

 

[Goo Punch 4275]

ESPN's BPI has Texas at 25.

 

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/24199936/kansas-jayhawks-gonzaga-bulldogs-lead-espn-college-basketball-bpi-2018

Edited July 30, 2018 by Goo Punch

[jimmyjazz 46141]

Not sure how far back in this thread I'd have to go to get this info, so I'll just ask:  what's the current status on Jones?

[txhorns 2413]

14 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Not sure how far back in this thread I'd have to go to get this info, so I'll just ask:  what's the current status on Jones?

Still alive.  Treatments are going well.  He wants to play this year but they are being patient.  I think he still has a round of treatments left.  He has been gaining weight back and practicing.

[Js1 85579]

8 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

ESPN's BPI has Texas at 25.

 

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/24199936/kansas-jayhawks-gonzaga-bulldogs-lead-espn-college-basketball-bpi-2018

Yeah I'd buy that. That means our schedule contains 9 for-sure games in the top 23 (10 if we play Michigan State in Vegas) and 5 more in the top 50. Woof.  

 

Edited July 30, 2018 by Js1

[Goo Punch 4275]

 

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Machinator 32099]