2018-19 Texas Longhorns thread

[Goo Punch 4275]

Young and Banks we’re the exact type of players we have signed for the c/o 2018 when they were coming out of HS. Player development has left much to be desired under Shaka, particularly non the perimeter.

[Machinator 32097]

Previously coached under Darrin Horn.

Recruited Wigginton to Iowa State.

[ClubWhatever 12085]

Frying pan / fire stuff

[Machinator 32097]

@Al_4_ISU, do you know anything about this guy?

[Al_4_ISU 12408]

2 hours ago, Machinator said:

@Al_4_ISU, do you know anything about this guy?

He's pretty well regarded as both an Xs and Os guy and a recruiter.  It would be a loss.

[immortal13 4059]

Why would anyone want to board Shaka's sinking ship?

[Machinator 32097]

1 minute ago, immortal13 said:

Why would anyone want to board Shaka's sinking ship?

Money, perhaps? CDC is persuasive, maybe?

[Al_4_ISU 12408]

I assume he's getting money whipped.

[texasstrong12 4668]

44 minutes ago, immortal13 said:

Why would anyone want to board Shaka's sinking ship?

Some of ya'll are going to be disappointed. Shaka will be here for at least 2 to 3 more years barring a complete disaster. 

Shaka likely has more job security than Steve Prohn coming off a 13-18 season and dead last in the Big 12. 

[Machinator 32097]

^I'm starting to think this is true, too.

[texasstrong12 4668]

Notice #5. 

[immortal13 4059]

17 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

Some of ya'll are going to be disappointed. Shaka will be here for at least 2 to 3 more years barring a complete disaster. 

Shaka likely has more job security than Steve Prohn coming off a 13-18 season and dead last in the Big 12. 

I didn't say he was getting fired soon. I meant it's a sinking ship in that we are going downhill and it doesn't look like there's any stopping it. So in that regard, yes I expect to be disappointed.

[Al_4_ISU 12408]

Anyone who thinks Steve Prohm is on the hot seat doesn't know our AD.

Hes notoriously loyal to his hires.  Everyone close to ISU basketball expected us to be down last year.  If we go back to the Dance, Prohm will be totally fine.

[WithoutAClue 15165]

#3 Michigan State

seriously? Tom Izzo is a top 5 college coach.

 

[Felix 598]

10 minutes ago, WithoutAClue said:

#3 Michigan State

seriously? Tom Izzo is a top 5 college coach.

 

With a serious #metoo problem.  Have you been following the Michigan State disaster?

[Goo Punch 4275]

“Barring disaster Shaka will get two or three more years”. Another, more accurate way to say that is, “Barring marked improvement in coaching and results, Shaka’s job security won’t be very high going forward.” The guy has been a huge disappointment, and this routine where we act like he’s done a good job is stupid and annoying. No objective person who has any knowledge of or interest in this program can say that his coaching hires, player development, player retention, and actual results have been anything but unacceptable. Totally unacceptable. This idea that he deserves a minimum of 5+ years to prove that can even field a competitive team of his own players can only come from people who are Shaka fans first and foremost, and Texas basketball fans second.

[Machinator 32097]

I get that, but the ultimate arbiter of that is Chris Del Conte, and it doesn't seem like he's in any hurry to light Shaka's ass on fire.

[UT Lawnghorn 758]

40 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

“Barring disaster Shaka will get two or three more years”. Another, more accurate way to say that is, “Barring marked improvement in coaching and results, Shaka’s job security won’t be very high going forward.” The guy has been a huge disappointment, and this routine where we act like he’s done a good job is stupid and annoying. No objective person who has any knowledge of or interest in this program can say that his coaching hires, player development, player retention, and actual results have been anything but unacceptable. Totally unacceptable. This idea that he deserves a minimum of 5+ years to prove that can even field a competitive team of his own players can only come from people who are Shaka fans first and foremost, and Texas basketball fans second.

Neither Texasstrong nor anyone else mentioned anything about what Shaka deserves or whether he’s doing a good job. It’s about the reality of the situation. Shaka has a ton of guaranteed money on his contract and CDC is focused on raising funds for the south end zone project. He’s not going to want to fire a coach who’s generally well-liked and isn’t causing problems (outside of Ws and Ls) and then have to go to the same donors he’s currently tapping out for the SEZ and ask for more money for something else. This is part of being a football school. Basketball Ws and Ls take a back seat to other things.

Edited May 22, 2018 by UT Lawnghorn

[Goo Punch 4275]

21 minutes ago, Machinator said:

I get that, but the ultimate arbiter of that is Chris Del Conte, and it doesn't seem like he's in any hurry to light Shaka's ass on fire.

No it doesn’t, nor should it seem that way. But my gut says he’s already sat down with Shaka and let him know that the performance of his first three seasons ain’t gonna cut it for too much longer.

[UT Lawnghorn 758]

1 minute ago, Goo Punch said:

No it doesn’t, nor should it seem that way. But my gut says he’s already sat down with Shaka and let him know that the performance of his first three seasons ain’t gonna cut it for too much longer.

See post above, but again. I think you’re overrating the importance of basketball wins and losses at the University of Texas.

[txhorns 2407]

2 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

No it doesn’t, nor should it seem that way. But my gut says he’s already sat down with Shaka and let him know that the performance of his first three seasons ain’t gonna cut it for too much longer.

I highly doubt that has happened. 

[Cameltoe 114]

41 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

Totally unacceptable. This idea that he deserves a minimum of 5+ years to prove that can even field a competitive team of his own players can only come from people who are Shaka fans first and foremost, and Texas basketball fans second.

Laughably hyper-critical. We had serious injury adversity last year and still made the dance and finished .500 in the toughest conference in America.

Take the Barnes dick out of your mouth for a second and look at the big picture. A program is in fact being built here, and yes, it does take time. The talent is coming in and the outlook isn't particularly bad at all.

[Machinator 32097]

3 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

No it doesn’t, nor should it seem that way. But my gut says he’s already sat down with Shaka and let him know that the performance of his first three seasons ain’t gonna cut it for too much longer.

Maybe. My gut tells me that even if he's hiding his true feelings, CDC isn't going to about face from publically praising Shaka for making the tournament despite adversity to giving him the boot 10 months from now, unless we have an absolutely miserable season, like 2016-17.

[Goo Punch 4275]

6 minutes ago, txhorns said:

I highly doubt that has happened. 

 

Then you must not think that CDC takes his job seriously. Attendance is lower than its ever been in my lifetime, and we are losing season ticket holders every year. It doesn’t have to be priority number one for CDC to be on top of it.

[Goo Punch 4275]

4 minutes ago, Machinator said:

Maybe. My gut tells me that even if he's hiding his true feelings, CDC isn't going to about face from publically praising Shaka for making the tournament despite adversity to giving him the boot 10 months from now, unless we have an absolutely miserable season, like 2016-17.

Nobody here has said otherwise. That doesn’t mean he automatically gets two or three more years barring a total disaster. How the hell could anyone even defend Shaka if we missed the tournament again? We could win 18 or 19 again, still be poorly coached, miss the tournament, and Shaka’s job would be in serious jeopardy if the right candidate were available.

[txhorns 2407]

Yes if we miss the tournament then his job should be in jeopardy.

[Machinator 32097]

Here's what I can find about Neill Berry:

Played under Steve Prohm and Billy Kennedy at SE Louisiana

Was an assistant or assistant coach at High Point, Western Kentucky, South Carolina, and Iowa State. His stints at WKU and SCar were under Darrin Horn. He served as Director of Player Development at SCar for a season.

Appears to be primarily (but not entirely) focused on guard recruiting; his most recent high-profile recruit was Lindell Wigginton. Notable players coached include Courtney Lee and Jeremy Evans at WKU, Wigginton, and SEC All-Defense player Damontre Harris at South Carolina.

Might not be a "splash hire", but he has a decently diverse resume. Probably a good indicator that Darrin Horn trusts him.

Edited May 22, 2018 by Machinator

[immortal13 4059]

I doubt we make the tourney next year. We barely made it this year with an NBA lottery pick

[txhorns 2407]

6 minutes ago, immortal13 said:

I doubt we make the tourney next year. We barely made it this year with an NBA lottery pick

A lot of that will depend on Roach and Jones.  If either of them come back next year we are definitely a tournament team, assuming Jones is at least 80% of what he was.  If both are back then we will be pretty damn good.

[Goo Punch 4275]

We’re going into year four talking about whether or not we will make the tournament. In between the time that Barnes was fired and Shaka hired, if you found out that the guy to replace Rick would go 50-50 (23-31) in his first three years despite signing three top 10 recruiting classes, and that his fourth team was a projected bubble team only because of how down the league was, would you just be all calm and chillin, talking about how the guy is definitely going to get 2-3 more years barring *another* 11-win season? HELL no. And yet here we are, doing just that.

[txhorns 2407]

3 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

We’re going into year four talking about whether or not we will make the tournament. In between the time that Barnes was fired and Shaka hired, if you found out that the guy to replace Rick would go 50-50 (23-31) in his first three years despite signing three top 10 recruiting classes, and that his fourth team was a projected bubble team only because of how down the league was, would you just be all calm and chillin, talking about how the guy is definitely going to get 2-3 more years barring *another* 11-win season? HELL no. And yet here we are, doing just that.

You keep saying this shit non stop but continue to leave out the circumstances which got us to where we are.  Of course none of us would be happy with that.  We also aren't happy that Barnes left Shaka with a pile of shit after season 1.  Or that we lost our best player in year 1 to an injury, with the 2ND best player severly limited by an injury.  Or that we lost our best player in year 3 to cancer while also having our future top 5 draft pick miss a few critical conference games.  Or that EDJ is a dumbass.  

[Goo Punch 4275]

5 minutes ago, txhorns said:

You keep saying this shit non stop but continue to leave out the circumstances which got us to where we are.  Of course none of us would be happy with that.  We also aren't happy that Barnes left Shaka with a pile of shit after season 1.  Or that we lost our best player in year 1 to an injury, with the 2ND best player severly limited by an injury.  Or that we lost our best player in year 3 to cancer while also having our future top 5 draft pick miss a few critical conference games.  Or that EDJ is a dumbass.  

Dude there are no circumstances that make a 50-50 (23-31) record okay. Period. Like, not even close. You have one bad year, okay, sometimes things happen that are out of your control. But going 50-50? Going 23-31 in conference?! Having multiple teams that are  objectively poorly coached, and which consistently blow leads and play terribly in crunch time? My man, you keep saying what you keep saying, but there is no excuse to have that record with the players we’ve had. It isn’t like we’re a well-coached team that’s a caught a couple bad breaks, we’re a poorly coached team that can’t overcome any bad breaks.

Edited May 22, 2018 by Goo Punch

[txhorns 2407]

2 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

Dude there are no circumstances that make a 50-50 (23-31) record okay. Period. Like, not even close. You have one bad year, okay, sometimes things happen that are out of your control. But going 50-50? Going 23-31 in conference?! Having multiple teams that are  objectively poorly coached, and which consistently blow leads and play terribly in crunch time? My man, you keep saying what you keep saying, but there is no excuse to have that record with the players we’ve had. It isn’t like we’re a well-coached team that’s a caught a couple bad breaks, we’re a poorly coached team that can’t overcome any bad breaks.

Please name all of the teams from this last year who last their best player and still made the tournament.

[immortal13 4059]

6 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

Dude there are no circumstances that make a 50-50 (23-31) record okay. Period. Like, not even close. You have one bad year, okay, sometimes things happen that are out of your control. But going 50-50? Going 23-31 in conference?! Having multiple teams that are  objectively poorly coached, and which consistently blow leads and play terribly in crunch time? My man, you keep saying what you keep saying, but there is no excuse to have that record with the players we’ve had. It isn’t like we’re a well-coached team that’s a caught a couple bad breaks, we’re a poorly coached team that can’t overcome any bad breaks.

Goo is speaking the Gospel

[Goo Punch 4275]

5 minutes ago, txhorns said:

Please name all of the teams from this last year who last their best player and still made the tournament.

lol, what a silly demand that would prove nothing. The number of tourney teams from last year that lost their best player for the season during the middle of the year was (I’m guessing) less than three? So, I’m not gonna do that. That said, off the top of my head- 

2001 Texas lost senior leader and co-best player Chris Owens to a torn ACL during conference play. James Thomas, a similarly skilled big to James Banks, stepped in and stepped up and helped lead Texas to the Sweet 16.

 

2005 Texas lost PJ Tucker AND LaMarcus Aldridge and went to the tourney.

 

Thise are two pretty famous examples of Texas losing three major players mid-season yet somehow avoiding a complete implosion. 

Edited May 22, 2018 by Goo Punch

[UT Lawnghorn 758]

22 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

We’re going into year four talking about whether or not we will make the tournament. In between the time that Barnes was fired and Shaka hired, if you found out that the guy to replace Rick would go 50-50 (23-31) in his first three years despite signing three top 10 recruiting classes, and that his fourth team was a projected bubble team only because of how down the league was, would you just be all calm and chillin, talking about how the guy is definitely going to get 2-3 more years barring *another* 11-win season? HELL no. And yet here we are, doing just that.

Shaka has had incredibly bad luck with injuries. If Cam stays healthy year one, we are a much better team and probably win a couple games in the tourney. That would change the entire outlook of his tenure to this point.  Year 3 he also had horrible injury luck. We needed a shooter/playmaker at guard in the worst way and we had a great one until cancer hit.  This season would have also gone drastically differently with him in there. I think he was our best player on the team, even though Bamba has more potential.  That's 2 out of 3 years losing our best player for the season. That's incredibly bad luck.

Having said that, Shaka has underperformed. He's done a poor job coaching and adapting the offense to the roster, he's mismanaged parts of the roster--be it guys leaving, failing to plug holes, etc.   I don't think he deserves to be fired right now, but if we miss the tournament next year, he probably deserves to be fired. I'm not optimistic about Shaka turning this thing around, but firing him after this past year with all the bad luck he's endured would seem unfair. 

However, what he deserves and what people expect to happen are two different things. I think that distinction is getting blurred a lot in this discussion.

[immortal13 4059]

Lulz at all those making excuses for Shaka Smart. He has had long enough to show that he can do something other than recruit. 

[UT Lawnghorn 758]

6 minutes ago, immortal13 said:

Lulz at all those making excuses for Shaka Smart. He has had long enough to show that he can do something other than recruit. 

Right and if his contract was up today, I don't think you'd see many people besides Camel arguing we should keep him but he signed a long, fully guaranteed contract. Paying him and his staff's buyout plus buying out a new coach would be a ridiculous waste of money right now. I wouldn't appreciate my university spending a dime on that and you're not gonna find enough boosters to pay it.  Again, this is a football school.  We're expending effort and resources on renovating the football stadium, which trumps a basketball coach underperforming.  

[txhorns 2407]

All I am trying to do is point out that it's not as black and white as how Goo wants to make it.  There is a ton of grey area and that grey area has shit all over Shaka the first three years of his tenure here.  Obviously everyone here wants to be better than a .500 team.  Shaka also clearly has his faults, the biggest one of which has been a lack of modifying his offense to fit the current healthy roster.

 So far a lot has gone wrong in Shaka's first 3 years that was out of his control but still greatly limited his team's abilities.  Then he made it worse by not making the necessary adjustments on offense.  He has been fairly successful in 2 of his 3 years here considering the injuries.  

There aren't many college team's outside of Duke, Kentucky, UNC, and Kansas who are able to still make the tournament after having lost their best player mid way through the year.

[Cameltoe 114]

1 hour ago, immortal13 said:

I doubt we make the tourney next year. We barely made it this year with an NBA lottery pick

Eh, you are dumb. Returning Coleman, Osetkowski, and Sims makes us look like a decent team. Getting Roach or Jones back and we look like a lock for the tournament. Factoring in our top 10 recruiting class, possibly even top 5, we look to be a probable tourney team.

[Goo Punch 4275]

Our recruiting class is top 10 because of volume, we don’t have a single All American, nor do we even have anyone who looks to be staying here less than three or four years. This class will not be a top 5 class, and the way you have incessantly over-hyped it is going to come back to bite you *hard* when we don’t win 25 games and go to the Sweet 16 next year. To hear you tell it that should be our floor with this nut-buster of a class we have coming in.

Edited May 22, 2018 by Goo Punch

[Goo Punch 4275]

1 hour ago, txhorns said:

All I am trying to do is point out that it's not as black and white as how Goo wants to make it.  There is a ton of grey area and that grey area has shit all over Shaka the first three years of his tenure here.  Obviously everyone here wants to be better than a .500 team.  Shaka also clearly has his faults, the biggest one of which has been a lack of modifying his offense to fit the current healthy roster.

 So far a lot has gone wrong in Shaka's first 3 years that was out of his control but still greatly limited his team's abilities.  Then he made it worse by not making the necessary adjustments on offense.  He has been fairly successful in 2 of his 3 years here considering the injuries.  

There aren't many college team's outside of Duke, Kentucky, UNC, and Kansas who are able to still make the tournament after having lost their best player mid way through the year.

I gave you two examples off the top of my head of Texas doing that very thing, including a season where we lost *HELLO*, both PJ Tucker and LaMarcus Aldridge. I remember both Oregon and Florida in recent years not only losing their best players during the season but making deep runs on top of it. Tourney teams losing their best player doesn’t happen often, but when it does we have plenty of examples of those teams finishing better than Texas has under Shaka. When the team is well coached they can recover, when they aren’t they can’t. It’s not surprising.

Edited May 22, 2018 by Goo Punch

[UT Lawnghorn 758]

1 hour ago, Cameltoe said:

Eh, you are dumb. Returning Coleman, Osetkowski, and Sims makes us look like a decent team. Getting Roach or Jones back and we look like a lock for the tournament. Factoring in our top 10 recruiting class, possibly even top 5, we look to be a probable tourney team.

Let's say for sake of argument we get Roach back.  That's still no Jones at all, no Bamba, no EDJ or Young (who weren't great but what do we replace them with)?  Our team from last year was a 10 seed. How does losing our two best players from last year, even with Jones only playing part of hte season, and returning the rest make us a lock? You're relying on a ton of development and progression from the returning guys, which is possible but definitely not a lock by any means. Not to mention that Bamba was an absolute defensive force. Sims won't be able to replicate that and he gets in foul trouble. We have no rim protector after that. This team will likely take a big step back on defense.

Your talk about the recruiting class is dumb for the reasons Derka pointed out.  There do not appear to be any instant impact guys, so the rank of the recruiting class has very little to do with how the team will perform next year (although I like the class long-term with 4 guys who will likely see their junior year).

[HookEm 2441]

I agree that Shaka has done a poor job in his first 3 years.  That said, not all great coaches roar out of the gate:

• Tom Izzo failed to make the tourney until his 3rd year at Michigan State, despite his predecessor Jud Heathcote making it 5 out of the previous 6 years and finishing 2nd in the Big 10 the year before.  Since then, Izzo has made the tourney 21 times in a row.
• Jay Wright missed the tourney his first three years at Villanova (going 52-46).  Since then he has won two titles plus another Final Four
• Bob Huggins missed the tourney his first two years at Cincinnati and also his first two years at West Virginia (going 55-45)
• Gregg Marshall missed the tourney his first four years at Wichita State and has now made it seven years in a row since (including a Final Four)
• Sean Miller missed the tourney two out of his first three seasons at Arizona and has made 3 Elite 8's and 2 additional Sweet 16's since 2010.  But cheating tho.
• Tony Bennett missed the tourney three out of his first four seasons at Virginia
• John Beilein missed the tourney two out of his first three seasons at Michigan

The common denominator with all of the above coaches is that by year 4-5 they were all rolling.  If we don't show improvement next year, the seat will get warmer.  If we don't REALLY turn the corner by year 5, he won't make it to year 6.

[txhorns 2407]

22 minutes ago, HookEm said:

I agree that Shaka has done a poor job in his first 3 years.  That said, not all great coaches roar out of the gate:

• Tom Izzo failed to make the tourney until his 3rd year at Michigan State, despite his predecessor Jud Heathcote making it 5 out of the previous 6 years and finishing 2nd in the Big 10 the year before.  Since then, Izzo has made the tourney 21 times in a row.
• Jay Wright missed the tourney his first three years at Villanova (going 52-46).  Since then he has won two titles plus another Final Four
• Bob Huggins missed the tourney his first two years at Cincinnati and also his first two years at West Virginia (going 55-45)
• Gregg Marshall missed the tourney his first four years at Wichita State and has now made it seven years in a row since (including a Final Four)
• Sean Miller missed the tourney two out of his first three seasons at Arizona and has made 3 Elite 8's and 2 additional Sweet 16's since 2010.  But cheating tho.
• Tony Bennett missed the tourney three out of his first four seasons at Virginia
• John Beilein missed the tourney two out of his first three seasons at Michigan

The common denominator with all of the above coaches is that by year 4-5 they were all rolling.  If we don't show improvement next year, the seat will get warmer.  If we don't REALLY turn the corner by year 5, he won't make it to year 6.

Yeah but we're Texas.  We're the bluest of blue blood basketball schools.  We can completely turn over our roster every year and not miss a beat with any coach not named Shaka Smart.  All of those schools you mentioned are football schools who don't put many resources into their basketball schools.  /sarcasm

[Dbeasy 14953]

I agree that Shaka has done a poor job in his first 3 years.  That said, not all great coaches roar out of the gate:

• Tom Izzo failed to make the tourney until his 3rd year at Michigan State, despite his predecessor Jud Heathcote making it 5 out of the previous 6 years and finishing 2nd in the Big 10 the year before.  Since then, Izzo has made the tourney 21 times in a row.
• Jay Wright missed the tourney his first three years at Villanova (going 52-46).  Since then he has won two titles plus another Final Four
• Bob Huggins missed the tourney his first two years at Cincinnati and also his first two years at West Virginia (going 55-45)
• Gregg Marshall missed the tourney his first four years at Wichita State and has now made it seven years in a row since (including a Final Four)
• Sean Miller missed the tourney two out of his first three seasons at Arizona and has made 3 Elite 8's and 2 additional Sweet 16's since 2010.  But cheating tho.
• Tony Bennett missed the tourney three out of his first four seasons at Virginia
• John Beilein missed the tourney two out of his first three seasons at Michigan

The common denominator with all of the above coaches is that by year 4-5 they were all rolling.  If we don't show improvement next year, the seat will get warmer.  If we don't REALLY turn the corner by year 5, he won't make it to year 6.

I did a similar analysis for the top 50 coaches of all-time. If I recall correctly, almost every one of them had their team at solid win-loss records and in the tourney by year 4 (not sneaking in at 18-14 for example). I’m with Goo. As much as I want to believe that Shaka can get it going, the first three years don’t give me much confidence that he is a great coach. He may not even be an average coach.

[Goo Punch 4275]

12 minutes ago, txhorns said:

Yeah but we're Texas.  We're the bluest of blue blood basketball schools.  We can completely turn over our roster every year and not miss a beat with any coach not named Shaka Smart.  All of those schools you mentioned are football schools who don't put many resources into their basketball schools.  /sarcasm

No one here has ever said anything like this.

[Cameltoe 114]

1 hour ago, UT Lawnghorn said:

Let's say for sake of argument we get Roach back.  That's still no Jones at all, no Bamba, no EDJ or Young (who weren't great but what do we replace them with)?  Our team from last year was a 10 seed. How does losing our two best players from last year, even with Jones only playing part of hte season, and returning the rest make us a lock? You're relying on a ton of development and progression from the returning guys, which is possible but definitely not a lock by any means. Not to mention that Bamba was an absolute defensive force. Sims won't be able to replicate that and he gets in foul trouble. We have no rim protector after that. This team will likely take a big step back on defense.

Your talk about the recruiting class is dumb for the reasons Derka pointed out.  There do not appear to be any instant impact guys, so the rank of the recruiting class has very little to do with how the team will perform next year (although I like the class long-term with 4 guys who will likely see their junior year).

I'm not relying on anything other than the talent level we have playing basketball here next year when I say we are a probably tournament team next year. Lock if Roach comes back. It doesn't matter that last year's team was a 10 seed, it doesn't matter that last year we had Mo Bamba. I'm talking about next year. And yeah it does have a lot to do with Ramey, Liddel, Hepa, Hayes, Long, and Cunningham. But mostly it has to do with Coleman, who will project as one of the top floor leaders in the conference even as only a sophomore next year, it does have to do with Sims and Osetkowski who bring big bodies to the table AND basketball skill at the same time and that's an ass-kicking combo at the NCAA level.

[UT Lawnghorn 758]

2 minutes ago, Cameltoe said:

I'm not relying on anything other than the talent level we have playing basketball here next year when I say we are a probably tournament team next year. Lock if Roach comes back. It doesn't matter that last year's team was a 10 seed, it doesn't matter that last year we had Mo Bamba. I'm talking about next year. And yeah it does have a lot to do with Ramey, Liddel, Hepa, Hayes, Long, and Cunningham. But mostly it has to do with Coleman, who will project as one of the top floor leaders in the conference even as only a sophomore next year, it does have to do with Sims and Osetkowski who bring big bodies to the table AND basketball skill at the same time and that's an ass-kicking combo at the NCAA level.

Lulz. Well first off, you are relying on a ton of development and progression from the guys listed in making your prediction. You literally admit that right here when you say Coleman "will project." Also, DO and Sims wasn't an ass-kicking combo last year, so the only way they'll be next year is with a ton of development and progression. These things are never certain and a lot of players don't progress linearly so you're absolutely reaching for all this stuff and calling it a "lock" is just ridiculous. IF you weren't relying on development, then a team that was a 10 seed that is losing its two best players would not be a "lock" to make the tournament if all the returning players did not make significant progression and development. 

[Cameltoe 114]

Again I'm not relying on any development and progression other than what you would expect from any NCAA player from one year to the next. We did not lose our best player from last year, Coleman is in fact returning. We finished the year essentially without Mo Bamba who was injured for last several games of the season or playing ineffectively with recent injury problems. We made the dance anyway. Sims absolutely kicked ass for a freshman last year, and Osetkowski put in essential and important work in getting us to the dance as our most utilized player. Add to that a recruiting class that is up there with the top 10 programs in the country and you have a dance projected team. I only said a "lock" if Roach returns. Otherwise a probable tournament team. Why is this so hard for you to grasp?