2018-19 Texas Longhorns thread

[Catdaddyhorn 3464]

1 hour ago, TexArcher said:

Don't get me wrong: Snoop's a serious athlete.  But I've seen nothing that leads me to believe he can easily be one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA.

Patrick Beverly, Tony Allen, and Avery Bradley are his comps in my eyes. 

[Braff Zacklin 13676]

1 hour ago, Machinator said:

I think people are underestimating the toll that treatment takes on a person.

His age, athleticism, ambition, and work ethic are why I expect he'll be back to where he was or even better. It is not unprecedented.

[BigOrange1 6611]

1 hour ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

Patrick Beverly, Tony Allen, and Avery Bradley are his comps in my eyes. 

i think those are best case scenario type comps.

[Catdaddyhorn 3464]

7 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

i think those are best case scenario type comps.

Definitely

Pat Beverley if he ever gets his ball handling and decision making up to a PG level and Bradley and Allen if he doesn't ever do it, but those are the 3 he should pattern his game after. Although I don't that a total non-shooter like Allen makes it in today's NBA. 

[txhorns 2421]

If Jones comes back next year then we are pretty set at guard.  We will have Coleman, Jones, Roach, Long and Febres.  Coleman is a good pg whose shooting should improve and seems like he is pretty clutch.  Jones would be a great shooter and defender.  Roach will be an average shooter but a great defender.  Long should be good enough to provide quality backup minutes and anything we get from Febres is a bonus.

 

There are still huge questions about the front court.  We have to get some minutes out of Hamm or the freshmen.  If we can get 30 quality minutes out of any of them then we could be pretty good.  I think Hepa will provide some of those minutes, hopefully backing up Osetkowski for 10-15 minutes a game.  With less minutes I think Osetkowski will improved a lot.

[Horny Bull 2766]

 

[Machinator 32103]

We're no longer oversigned, but I expect the attrition isn't over.

[mrhorn 1456]

There's going to be a lot of new faces next year fo sho.

[UDontKnow 10568]

13 minutes ago, Machinator said:

 

Edited March 28, 2018 by UDontKnow
Error

[Horny Bull 2766]

 

[Machinator 32103]

We're now one scholarship under the limit, if Roach comes back and Jones doesn't get a medical. Hopefully Shaka is looking at grad transfers for frontcourt depth.

[Jhawk 1075]

So who is going to return that was a contributor this year?  Is shaka going to rely on 3+ freshmen in the rotation?  I don't know the ins and outs of your roster but this doesn't sound good... going to rely on DO to not come back from the offseason weighing 450 lbs.?

[Machinator 32103]

9 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

So who is going to return that was a contributor this year?  Is shaka going to rely on 3+ freshmen in the rotation?  I don't know the ins and outs of your roster but this doesn't sound good... going to rely on DO to not come back from the offseason weighing 450 lbs.?

Unless Roach ends up staying in the draft, we should have a starting lineup featuring no freshman for the first time in a few seasons:

G: Coleman (So)

G: Roach (Sr)

G: Febres (So)

F: Osetkowski (Sr)

F: Sims (So)

But experience falls off quickly after that, especially if Jones can't play. Elijah Long redshirted last year after transferring from Mt. Saint Mary's, and he should be a quality backup point guard. The bench wings and forwards are very inexperienced, yet again: one little-used sophomore (Royce Hamm), and the rest are freshmen (Kemaka Hepa, Gerald Liddell, Brock Cunningham, and Jaxon Hayes).

Edited March 28, 2018 by Machinator

[Jhawk 1075]

Woof... I hope you guys can be competitive because it makes the big12 better, but if Roach goes then things don't look all that great with DO as the team leader and a bunch of underclassmen in heavy minute positions.  Shaka will have to coach his ass off to limit dumb mistakes that talent can't account for.  Nothing has shown shaka can coach for shit at this level either.

[Machinator 32103]

We'll be competitive enough to keep the conference numbers high, but not strong enough to actually push for a title.

In other words, exactly where the rest of the Big 12 wants us.

[RockyMountainHighHorn 926]

After just saying I hadn't drank the kool aid on Calvin Anderson, I have had a few sips of the red drink for this freshman class. I think they will be better than what most of the board believes. Not saying they are taking us to a title but I won't be worried if one starts and one is the 6-7 man. 

[HtownHorn 15233]

Well Hayes is going to need to play now. Shaka's 1st class was a colossal bust.

[HtownHorn 15233]

Just now, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

After just saying I hadn't drank the kool aid on Calvin Anderson, I have had a few sips of the red drink for this freshman class. I think they will be better than what most of the board believes. Not saying they are taking us to a title but I won't be worried if one starts and one is the 6-7 man. 

The two previous classes were much higher ranked and they pretty much have busted. 0 tournament wins out of back to back top 6 classes.

[Jhawk 1075]

48 minutes ago, Machinator said:

We'll be competitive enough to keep the conference numbers high, but not strong enough to actually push for a title.

In other words, exactly where the rest of the Big 12 wants us.

Damn I miss when UT and KU and even OSU would battle at the top. 

[satyanash 15559]

 

[taybo20 3022]

5 hours ago, mrhorn said:

There's going to be a lot of new faces next year fo sho.

Will we actually be good?

[Guest Pass]

2 hours ago, Machinator said:

Elijah Long redshirted last year after transferring from Mt. Saint Mary's, and he should be a quality backup point guard.

I don't know much about Long other than that he was the best player in the Northeast conference in 2017. If he turns out to be a solid floor leader like Coleman I could see putting them both out there at the same time.

[ClubWhatever 12283]

2 hours ago, satyanash said:

 

I don’t often seek opinions about Texas Basketball but when I do I look to Ian Boyd for them.  

[immortal13 4059]

6 hours ago, Machinator said:

We're no longer oversigned, but I expect the attrition isn't over.

I'd like to see some attrition at the coaching position.

[dieucla98 2955]

3 hours ago, satyanash said:

 

Yeesh, that's pretty damn accurate...

[HookEm 2509]

Banks... Big loss or nah?

[texasstrong12 4668]

9 hours ago, Guest Pass said:

I don't know much about Long other than that he was the best player in the Northeast conference in 2017. If he turns out to be a solid floor leader like Coleman I could see putting them both out there at the same time.

Yeah, I wouldn't view Long as just a "backup point guard". He's going to see minutes at the 2 with Coleman. 

Long is much more of a scoring type than pure PG type like Coleman. 

Edited March 29, 2018 by texasstrong12

[texasstrong12 4668]

15 hours ago, mrhorn said:

There's going to be a lot of new faces next year fo sho.

Several new faces, but most experience we've returned in some time if Roach returns. 

We will return 127 starts from last year (135 if Jones is healthy). This year we returned 81 starts and 23 of those were from Jones who missed most of the year. The year before that we only returned 17 starts. 

Really we're returning the entire starting 5 at the end of the year when Bamba was injured. Osetkowksi, Sims, Febres, Coleman and Roach were the starting 5 in the final 4 Big 12 games. 

I would still like us to pick up a grad transfer, which seems likely based on the involvement with Marcus Carr. Depending on how thinks shake out with Roach and Jones, I would prefer we add a scoring 3 or a big that can board/play D. If Jones isn't healthy, I wouldn't mind us adding another guard like a Marcus Carr type. 

 

Edited March 29, 2018 by texasstrong12

[texasstrong12 4668]

This is interesting and I wonder if colleges play some role in this. A college coach would much rather have a 19 year old kid coming into college than an 18 year old. That extra year matters a lot. 

[Bort 9]

On 28/03/2018 at 3:45 AM, txhorns said:

Supposedly eligible immediately otherwise I would agree.  I would prefer he find a big man instead of a guard though.

Carr has to sit out a year per this article:

https://www.burntorangenation.com/2018/3/26/17165740/marcus-carr-transfer-texas-longhorns-pitt-panthers
 

[texasstrong12 4668]

There's going to be a billion transfers and grad transfers available. Carr will be far from the last transfer we are interested in. If Roach returns, I hope we go after Trey Porter from Old Dominion. 

There will be a long line for Porter though. 

 

Edited March 29, 2018 by texasstrong12

[VinyVango 708]

Banks was never going to be a star.  He needed a lot of time and work.  There was a chance he would develop and get some good backup minutes in his senior and possibly junior years.  It's hard to know why he pulled the plug... self-delusions of how good he is?... grades?... perhaps he never flipped the competitive / serious attitude switch in practice and ended up being squeezed out by Shaka... maybe his position coach(es) focused on other players and he felt neglected and left out... and/or perhaps he just wasn't clicking with Bamba and the more popular kids.

He's not a huge loss, and he can probably start in a much lower profile conference.

[texasstrong12 4668]

13 minutes ago, VinyVango said:

Banks was never going to be a star.  He needed a lot of time and work.  There was a chance he would develop and get some good backup minutes in his senior and possibly junior years.  It's hard to know why he pulled the plug... self-delusions of how good he is?... grades?... perhaps he never flipped the competitive / serious attitude switch in practice and ended up being squeezed out by Shaka... maybe his position coach(es) focused on other players and he felt neglected and left out... and/or perhaps he just wasn't clicking with Bamba and the more popular kids.

He's not a huge loss, and he can probably start in a much lower profile conference.

I don't think Banks transferring was really his decision at all. I think our staff pretty much nudged him out the door. 

 

[Goo Punch 4275]

The thing about Banks and Young (and Davis) is that they at least had multiple years of weight training, practice, film sessions, game time, etc. We’ve now guaranteed that our freshmen (none of whom are going to walk in and play like they belong) will be getting plenty of time off the bench. Knowing Shaka our starting 5 will all average near/above 30 mpg anyway, but our bench looks like an even bigger weakness now than it did before we knew that all three of those guys were gone. 

[texasstrong12 4668]

15 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

Knowing Shaka our starting 5 will all average near/above 30 mpg anyway

You do realize this is pretty common right? 

Nova: Brunson 31 minutes a game, Bridges 32 minutes a game, DiVincenzo 29 minutes a game, Spellman 28 minutes a game, Paschall 30 minutes a game, Booth 27 minutes a game. 

Kansas: Graham 38 minutes a game, Mykhailiuk 35 minutes a game, Newman 31 minutes a game, Vick 33 minutes a game, Azubuike 24 minutes a game. 

Michigan: Wagner 27 minutes a game, Matthews 30 minutes a game, Rahkman 35 minutes a game, Robinson 26 minutes a game, Simpson 26 minutes a game. 

Most of the better teams play a really short rotation where they rely on big minutes from their best players. All the final 4 teams are pretty much 7-9 player rotations at most, where their best players log most of the minutes. 

Edited March 29, 2018 by texasstrong12

[texasstrong12 4668]

The entire discussion above is actually something that's been discussed in the women's basketball forum quite a bit. 

Texas women's basketball has more depth than anybody (15 scholarships vs 13 scholarships in the women's game) but UCONN continually dominates with 7 player rotations. 

Depth obviously matters, but it seems like the best teams ride and die with their 7 or 8 best players. 

Edited March 29, 2018 by texasstrong12

[Jhawk 1075]

You can’t really compare the women’s game though because there are like 50 total players that deserve an athletic scholarship. 

Bench controbution is critical, especially in March, in the men’s game. For us, Graham and Svi are clearly wearing down right now (air balling 3’s). If we could spell them down to 29 minutes even we’d be in better shape and we likely wouldn’t let teams back into games like we have all season. We’ve made a habit of getting up (or down) by 13-15 and then either resting if we are up or kicking it into high gear if we are down (because we rested through early minutes). It isn’t a sustainable way to play and we don’t do it because our guys are that good. We do it because we have to and that isn’t good... we’ve just been lucky to have 2 NPOY guys in consecutive years. 

[texasstrong12 4668]

Some more data on starters minutes. 

Kansas starters play 32.1 minutes per game, Nova starters play 29.86 minutes per game, Michigan starters play 28.88 minutes per game, and the Loyola-Chicago starters play 29.16 minutes per game. 

The starting 5 of Roach, Febres, Osetkowski, Bamba and Coleman played 29.7 minutes per game. That fluctuates a little bit dependent on if the 5th starter was Young or Sims. 

Only 1 year of data, but this doesn't tell me Shaka is playing his starters too many minutes. If anything, the Jones illness may have forced us to play Roach and Coleman more minutes than he would have liked which might need to become the norm. 

Edited March 29, 2018 by texasstrong12

[texasstrong12 4668]

12 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

It isn’t a sustainable way to play and we don’t do it because our guys are that good. We do it because we have to and that isn’t good... we’ve just been lucky to have 2 NPOY guys in consecutive years. 

I would have to look at more years of data, but you aren't the only team doing it in the final 4. All the final 4 teams rely on a short bench where 6 to 8 guys are playing the majority of minutes. 

The Nova, Loyola-Chicago, and Michigan starters are playing huge minutes. It's not a significant separation between Kansas and those 3 teams. 

Edited March 29, 2018 by texasstrong12

[txhorns 2421]

16 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

The two previous classes were much higher ranked and they pretty much have busted. 0 tournament wins out of back to back top 6 classes.

In what way has last year's class been a bust?  Please explain this idiotic take to me.

[texasstrong12 4668]

17 hours ago, Machinator said:

Unless Roach ends up staying in the draft, we should have a starting lineup featuring no freshman for the first time in a few seasons:

G: Coleman (So)

G: Roach (Sr)

G: Febres (So)

F: Osetkowski (Sr)

F: Sims (So)

But experience falls off quickly after that, especially if Jones can't play. Elijah Long redshirted last year after transferring from Mt. Saint Mary's, and he should be a quality backup point guard. The bench wings and forwards are very inexperienced, yet again: one little-used sophomore (Royce Hamm), and the rest are freshmen (Kemaka Hepa, Gerald Liddell, Brock Cunningham, and Jaxon Hayes).

I won't be surprised if Long starts over Febres. They can stagger the minutes between Coleman and Long at PG. I think Long is a better basketball player than Febres is right now, but it's dependent on if they want to start Long at the 2/shooting guard spot. 

It also won't surprise me if Liddell becomes a starter later in the season as he develops. Liddell is really the only prototypical 3 we have on the roster. From a purely basketball fit perspective I think the best starting 5 is Coleman, Roach, Liddell, Sims and Osetkowski. 

 

Edited March 29, 2018 by texasstrong12

[Machinator 32103]

1 minute ago, texasstrong12 said:

I won't be surprised if Long starts over Febres. They can stagger the minutes between Coleman and Long at PG. 

It also won't surprise me if Liddell becomes a starter later in the season as he develops. Liddell is really the only prototypical 3 we have on the roster. From a purely basketball fit standpoint I think the best starting 5 is Coleman, Roach, Liddell, Sims and Osetkowski. 

 

If Liddell can shoot, sure. Otherwise that's yet another starting lineup with poor spacing.

[texasstrong12 4668]

14 minutes ago, Machinator said:

If Liddell can shoot, sure. Otherwise that's yet another starting lineup with poor spacing.

Unless Febres is a substantially better shooter than Liddell, the above lineup is a better fit because we actually have a 3. Roach is much better at the 2 vs 3. That's not really a criticism of Roach, he's just been forced to play the 3 because we don't have any 3/SF types on the roster. 

Hopefully, we see Febres take a jump in 3 point shooting like Jones did from year 1 to year 2. That would certainly justify keeping Febres in the starting lineup. But if Febres is shooting .301 from 3 again "his shooting" really isn't a justification to keep him in the starting 5. 

 

Edited March 29, 2018 by texasstrong12

[Jhawk 1075]

1 hour ago, texasstrong12 said:

I would have to look at more years of data, but you aren't the only team doing it in the final 4. All the final 4 teams rely on a short bench where 6 to 8 guys are playing the majority of minutes. 

The Nova, Loyola-Chicago, and Michigan starters are playing huge minutes. It's not a significant separation between Kansas and those 3 teams. 

Very true this year.  When we won it all in 2008 we had 9 guys that played over 8 minutes per game.  That was an eon ago in cbb terms however.  It would be interesting to look at the last 10-15 champions and see how deep their benches were.

 

**For shits and gigs I looked up the nova team from 2 years ago... they also had 9 guys playing 8 minutes or more.

Edited March 29, 2018 by Jhawk

[Jhawk 1075]

13 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

Very true this year.  When we won it all in 2008 we had 9 guys that played over 8 minutes per game.  That was an eon ago in cbb terms however.  It would be interesting to look at the last 10-15 champions and see how deep their benches were.

 

**For shits and gigs I looked up the nova team from 2 years ago... they also had 9 guys playing 8 minutes or more.

Fuck it... I did it.

Year - Team - Players playing 8+ minutes - Players playing 6-8 minutes

2007-UF-8-2

2008-KU-9-1

2009-UNC-10-1

2010-DUKE-9-1

2011-UCONN-10-0

2012-UK-7-1

2013-UL-9-1

2014-UCONN-10-0

2015-DUKE-10-0

2016-NOVA-9-0

2017-UNC-9-2

 

Teams that win the tourney are typically pretty deep from what I can see.  The second thinnest team on this list was a hot 3 point shooting (shot like 55-60% for the tourney) Nova in 2016 and they had 9 guys they rotated.

[texasstrong12 4668]

The problem with that breakdown is the numbers are skewed because those teams play guys in mop up time against bad teams. 

Take Duke in the 2015 example. They played 7 guys in the national championship game, 8 guys in the final 4 game, 9 guys in the Elite 8 game, and 8 guys in the Sweet 16 game. 

A player getting 8 or so minutes in mop up time in the regular season might not play in the tournament. From what I've seen in the box scores from the last 5 years, most of the good teams are going 7-9 deep in the tournament. It's up for interpretation on whether that's considered a "deep team". 

I think a lot of people perceive "deep teams" as going 12 or 13 deep. When in reality playing 10 guys is probably over the norm in the tournament for most of the good teams. I guess it just depends on what you consider a "deep team" to be. A 8 or 9 guy rotation with a 13 player roster doesn't really scream "depth" to me. 

Edited March 29, 2018 by texasstrong12

[texasstrong12 4668]

In reference to the posts above, here's the average number of minutes played by the starters from the last 5 national champions. Lower amount of minutes for the starters in those years than Kansas this year, but still pretty substantial minutes. I'm sure the avg number of minutes is even higher if you just look at the number of minutes played in the tournament. 

Minutes per game for the starters: 

UNC '17: 26.74

Nova '16: 27.86

Duke '15: 30.04

UCONN '14: 28.72

Louisville '13: 27.76

 

 

Edited March 29, 2018 by texasstrong12

[Jhawk 1075]

I thought about that and the reason I stayed with those numbers is because:

1. 8 minutes a game is not mop up minutes.  Usually mop up guys are coming in with 2 minutes or less in a game.  You don't get more mpg just by having more games with mop up minutes.

2. The minutes during the tourney don't matter as much, in my mind, as the minutes over the length of the season.  Look at Trey Young, he clearly got worn out over the season and couldn't even will a win in either the big12 or ncaa.  Players don't wear down in a 3 week tourney playing 2 games a week, they wear down over the burden of a 32 game season.

[Jhawk 1075]

2 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

In reference to the posts above, here's the average number of minutes played by the starters from the last 5 national champions. Lower amount of minutes for the starters in those years than Kansas this year, but still pretty substantial minutes. I'm sure the avg number of minutes is even higher if you just look at the number of minutes played in the tournament. 

Minutes per game for the starters: 

UNC '17: 26.74

Nova '16: 27.86

Duke '15: 30.04

UCONN '14: 28.72

Louisville '13: 27.76

 

 

Anything under 30 for a starter is pretty good.

[texasstrong12 4668]

19 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

The minutes during the tourney don't matter as much, in my mind, as the minutes over the length of the season.  Look at Trey Young, he clearly got worn out over the season and couldn't even will a win in either the big12 or ncaa.  Players don't wear down in a 3 week tourney playing 2 games a week, they wear down over the burden of a 32 game season.

1-I think there's definitively value in having a deeper bench in the regular season. 

2-The OU example is kind of a perfect example of what I'm getting at. I think the quality of OU's limited rotation had a bigger impact on their struggles than "depth". OU's 7 or 8 best players weren't very good when compared with other teams in the tournament. That team was all Trae Young. To me OU's struggles had more to do with the fact they didn't have many good players outside of Trae Young. Is OU any better this year if they have more depth at the similar quality as other players on OU's roster? I don't think so. 

Edited March 29, 2018 by texasstrong12