2018-19 Texas Longhorns thread

[Horns RD Standard 66]

Lunardi’s latest has Tex as a 9 seed facing 8 Syracuse. Of the 7-10 seeds that lunardi has, this imo from what I’ve seen, would by far be the worst match for an inconsistent shooting Tex squad!

Lunardi’s
#7s - Lou, Aub, Cincy Wofford
#8s - Bay, Wash, Syr, Iowa
#9s - VCU, UCF, Fla
#10s - NC St, OU, Ole miss, oh st


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[Js1 85296]

Syracuse is either a game we go 2-22 from three and lose by 12 or Febres hits 8/10, Ramey hits 4/4 and Coleman goes 3/5 and we win by 17. 

Edited March 4, 2019 by Js1

[Goo Punch 4275]

Texas vs either Syracuse or Cincy would set the game back 50 years. First one to 50 wins.

[texasstrong12 4668]

Syracuse also isn't very good. They could very well lose their last two games and the first game of the ACC tourney which would probably mean they miss the tourney all together. 

Gives you good perspective on how shit the bubble is when a currently projected 8 seed like Syracuse is still at risk of missing the tournament. 

[taybo20 2825]

21 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

Texas vs either Syracuse or Cincy would set the game back 50 years. First one to 50 wins.

lol so true

[texasstrong12 4668]

TCU lost to K-State tonight so they've lost 6/7. If you can't beat them at home in a must win game then you don't deserve to make the tournament. 

[Goo Punch 4275]

i've been wrong before (gulp), but seriously- taking away our Texas fan PTSD- objectively TCU at home is a game we should win. Period. I agree with you and everything, but what i'm saying is that i stand by my stance that we are IN the field, and beating TCU essentially clinches that imo. It's the right place and right time for this team to get a W. As flawed and unreliable as this team is, to lay an egg after whipping up on ISU at home would be devastating. 

Edited March 5, 2019 by Goo Punch

[Machinator 32099]

I've said it before - this team isn't "tough", but they have a way of rising up when everyone counts them out completely in the regular season. I bet we beat TCU, lose in a "valiant" effort to KU in Kansas City, and bow out in a close game as a 10 or 11 seed in the round of 64.

[texasstrong12 4668]

Texas is unpredictable as hell but TCU simply isn't good because of all the injuries/attrition. In a must win game I have a hard time seeing Texas losing that game. 

Lunardi actually thinks we're already in but these tweets sum up my thoughts on needing one more win. 

 

[Machinator 32099]

Yeah, today was ugly, but the committee isn't going to punish us harshly for losing on the road to a top 10 team.

There's also the Kerwin Roach factor. If he's reinstated, the committee will be more forgiving of the Baylor and OU losses (which, aren't bad resume-wise).

Still have to beat TCU.

[Red Five 40847]

Has college basketball really deteriorated to the point where a 17-15 team is a lock to get an at large bid? That’s absurd.

[HtownHorn 14671]

10 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Has college basketball really deteriorated to the point where a 17-15 team is a lock to get an at large bid? That’s absurd.

Yes and yes. Being consistently inconsistent against other consistently inconsistent teams is better than wiping the floor with bad teams.

[texasstrong12 4668]

6 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Has college basketball really deteriorated to the point where a 17-15 team is a lock to get an at large bid? That’s absurd.

Yeah. Just look at the last teams in Lunardi's bracket. 

Teams like TCU, Alabama, St. Johns, Minnesota, and so on are going to finish with 12-14 losses. And we have better wins than all of those teams. 

 

 

[texasstrong12 4668]

Just now, HtownHorn said:

Yes and yes. Being consistently inconsistent against other consistently inconsistent teams is better than wiping the floor with bad teams.

True. The biggest thing for Texas is the Big 12 is a good conference. Losing to teams like Tech, K-State, Baylor doesn't really hurt your resume. 

The problem for other schools is they lose to shit teams while piling up losses. 

That's what's happening right now on the bubble. Texas is actually improving their position at times on the bubble with losses because they lose to good teams whereas other bubble teams lose to bad teams. 

[Machinator 32099]

College basketball is a sport where you can talk about "quality losses" unironically.

[texasstrong12 4668]

8 minutes ago, Machinator said:

College basketball is a sport where you can talk about "quality losses" unironically.

OU (at 6-10 in the Big 12) and TCU (at 6-11 in the Big 12) are both still in the tournament per Lunardi. Gives you a good perspective. 

Good chance both finish 6-12 and I think the committee is gonna have to take at least one. 

[TXSooner518 2438]

OU (at 6-10 in the Big 12) and TCU (at 6-11 in the Big 12) are both still in the tournament per Lunardi. Gives you a good perspective. 
Good chance both finish 6-12 and I think the committee is gonna have to take at least one. 

OU is in unless they lose out, including to OSU/WVU in Big 12 tourney. Zero Q4 games this season, very high SOS, 19 wins, only one loss to a non-current tourney team. Just no way they fall behind the likes of Ariz St, which has EIGHT losses to non-tourney teams, including by 20 at home to AWFUL Wazzu, etc.

[texasstrong12 4668]

Just now, TXSooner518 said:

 

OU is in unless they lose out, including to OSU/WVU in Big 12 tourney. Zero Q4 games this season, very high SOS, 19 wins, only one loss to a non-current tourney team. Just no way they fall behind the likes of Ariz St, which has EIGHT losses to non-tourney teams, including by 20 at home to AWFUL Wazzu, etc.

 

I think they need to win one of the Kansas or @ K-State games. That would give them another Q1 win. Not sure an OSU/WVU win does much for OU. 

Get to 4 Q1 wins and I think OU is probably a lock. 

But I do think OU's resume is much better than TCU. TCU's resume is actually kind of blah. Only 2 Q1 wins and shit nonconference SOS. The only thing saving TCU at this point is the fact they don't have any bad losses. 

[TXSooner518 2438]

OU resume is a lot better than TCU at this point including a sweep of TCU. It’s not the win over OSU or WVU that helps as much as it’s not having the bad loss.

I would say a win over KU or KSU would lock it up even against bid thieves in conference tourneys. KU has been awful on the road but they must win in Norman to officially keep the streak on life support.

Only knock on OU bid status is that conference record. If OU had swept Baylor instead of getting swept but lost to Wofford and Florida would they really be a better team or have a better resume just because they are now 8-8 in conference?

No elite wins, a few good wins, no bad losses. Basic 9 or 10 seed profile.

[texasstrong12 4668]

These are the Q1 wins for the teams on the bubble in Lunardi's bracket. 

Last 4 byes

NC State 2

Minnesota 2

Alabama 2

ST Johns 6

Last 4 in 

Seton Hall 4

ASU 3

Temple 1

TCU 2

First 4 out

Clemson 1

ST Marys 1

Furman 1

Murray State 0

 

So maybe 3 Q1 wins would be good enough. 

[justhookit 4191]

3 hours ago, texasstrong12 said:

Texas is unpredictable as hell but TCU simply isn't good because of all the injuries/attrition. In a must win game I have a hard time seeing Texas losing that game. 

Lunardi actually thinks we're already in but these tweets sum up my thoughts on needing one more win. 

 

@Bob yeah, but how is Mizzou looking?

Lets go watch Carmelo get drunk on Bourbon again.

[TXSooner518 2438]

So maybe 3 Q1 wins would be good enough. 

Ha yeah especially given the teams that can match 3 wins have some real garbage on the resume. I mentioned ASUs awful losses, Seton Hall lost to Nebraska, St Louis, Providence and got swept by DePaul. St Johns has the weirdest resume, also swept by DePaul and by Providence plus losses to Georgetown and Xavier.

Temple can’t pass OU. NCState can’t barring beating UNC, Duke, or UVA. Their OOC was ranked in the mid 300s and they scored 24 points at home in a game.

I’m telling you, this is like that thing where people during college football say “oh come on X isn’t a top 10 team!” But when you say ok who should be, there aren’t 10 teams they think are top 10 teams. Gotta have 34 at larges, no matter how bad they are.

[Machinator 32099]

Despite losing by 19 to Tech, our NET rating stayed unchanged.

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Js1 85296]

I don't think he should play another game for Texas.  

Edited March 5, 2019 by Js1

[Bitterwhiteguy 153]

On 3/2/2019 at 6:33 PM, dcar00 said:

I don't see how CBS can have us as first team out unless they think Big 12 doesn't deserve 6 teams in.

Jerry Palm has been the outlier all season long because he uses outdated metrics.

[texasstrong12 4668]

6 hours ago, Bitterwhiteguy said:

Jerry Palm has been the outlier all season long because he uses outdated metrics.

Yup. He places way too much emphasis on overall record when reality is that's not how the committee evaluates. 

[texasstrong12 4668]

Crazy to say but I hope we get Kansas in the 1st round of the Big 12 tournament. They are terrible away from home. 

[Pancho 44719]

Just now, texasstrong12 said:

Crazy to say but I hope we get Kansas in the 1st round of the Big 12 tournament. They are terrible away from home. 

But the tournament is in...Kansas 

[texasstrong12 4668]

4 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

But the tournament is in...Kansas 

True but it's not the Phog. There's something about that place. 

Edited March 6, 2019 by texasstrong12

[LTtxfan 49148]

2 hours ago, texasstrong12 said:

True but it's not the Phog. There's something about that place. 

Looks like probably Longhorns vs Jayhawks in their first game of B12 Tourney

Jayhawks  #3 seed

Texas         #6 seed

Edited March 6, 2019 by LTtxfan

[UTDD 362]

23 hours ago, Red Five said:

Has college basketball really deteriorated to the point where a 17-15 team is a lock to get an at large bid? That’s absurd.

Yeah, showing flashes of a higher ceiling with quality wins probably helps more than the harm of being extremely inconsistent game to game overall.

[Bitterwhiteguy 153]

14 hours ago, texasstrong12 said:

True but it's not the Phog. There's something about that place. 

That place is Phog East when Kansas is playing, Hilton South when Iowa State is playing, and Octagon East when KSU plays. Those three fanbases snap up 80% of the seats to the tourney. It'll be a road game for Texas against any of those three.

Edited March 6, 2019 by Bitterwhiteguy

[Machinator 32099]

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Still the top 10 seed.

[LTtxfan 49148]

2 hours ago, Machinator said:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Still the top 10 seed.

Surprised TCU is 11 seed.

What seed number is typically the final spot for an at-large-bid in March Madness??

[Machinator 32099]

8 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Surprised TCU is 11 seed.

What seed number is typically the final spot for an at-large-bid in March Madness??

The worst four 11 seeds typically get sent to the First Four. The bubble is so bad this year I wouldn't be surprised to see 12 seeds in the First Four.

[LTtxfan 49148]

Here's a creative way CDC might help Shaka leave after this season.....

Shaka's remaining contract $12.9 mill over 4yrs

1. CDC arranges for UT to pay Shaka $10mill lump sum to buy out existing contract.  

2. CDC agrees to no offset if Shaka coaches elsewhere.

3. Shaka signs a 4yr deal with Wake Forrest with a Contract worth $10+mill    (Good for Wake Forrest since no buyout to get Shaka)

4. CDC hires Fred Hoiberg as Horns Basketball Coach   (No buyout of another contract to get Hoiberg)

Edited March 7, 2019 by LTtxfan

[TXSooner518 2438]

The worst four 11 seeds typically get sent to the First Four. The bubble is so bad this year I wouldn't be surprised to see 12 seeds in the First Four.

It’s the last four at-large bids and the last four AQs (16 seeds). The at-larges sent to First Four have ranged from 11 seeds to 14 seeds. The at large seeds are more dictated by how bad the teams are that grab auto-bids in comparison to the at large teams.

[Machinator 32099]

5 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

 

It’s the last four at-large bids and the last four AQs (16 seeds). The at-larges sent to First Four have ranged from 11 seeds to 14 seeds. The at large seeds are more dictated by how bad the teams are that grab auto-bids in comparison to the at large teams.

 

Right, I'm saying that the bubble is bad enough that we could see more auto bids jump the last at-larges (though this is contingent on minimal chaos in the low-major tourneys).

[Beau Vine 54209]

 

[Braff Zacklin 13556]

Well, we swept them in hoops so ...

[Machinator 32099]

14 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

 

That's a football schedule.

[texasstrong12 4668]

On 3/4/2019 at 10:04 PM, texasstrong12 said:

TCU lost to K-State tonight so they've lost 6/7. If you can't beat them at home in a must win game then you don't deserve to make the tournament. 

Welp. Texas is definitely gonna have to win a game in the Big 12 tournament now. 

[HRSchenker 2268]

NIT bound?

[Braff Zacklin 13556]

So, 16-15 overall and 8-10 in league play ... with a roster as deep, athletic, and occasionally talented as this. What a disappointment.

Roach's season-ending suspension hurt, but compared to most teams, we've been very fortunate with respect to injuries and player availability. To top it off, this is our third-straight year with a losing record in conference play despite having a lottery pick at center.

Sucks.

Fucking ... sucks.

[ClubWhatever 12120]

Our two best players, Roach and Hayes will be gone next year.  We will only have one experienced guard who is good enough to win consistently in the big 12 in Ramey.  Coleman is a defensive liability and just not consistent enough as a scorer.  Next year is going to be just as brutal if not more so. 

[texasstrong12 4668]

19 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

Our two best players, Roach and Hayes will be gone next year.  We will only have one experienced guard who is good enough to win consistently in the big 12 in Ramey.  Coleman is a defensive liability and just not consistent enough as a scorer.  Next year is going to be just as brutal if not more so. 

1) Depends on the coach

2) Depends on what happens with the recruiting class. Texas signed an elite recruiting class so if a new coach is hired a lot of next season will be dependent on if he can keep them from bailing. 

3) Texas still has talent next year with Ramey, Coleman, Febres, Sims, and Hepa. Shaka hasn't maximized the talent but there's still talent there. Plus grad transfers. 

[Machinator 32099]

1 hour ago, HRSchenker said:

NIT bound?

First four teams out of the tournament are guaranteed NIT #1 seeds. So, that may be in the cards.

[dcar00 14159]

thats probably a worse case scenario.  some run in the losers bracket..ugh.  though I think, unless Febres is hot, any reasonably decent team can beat us.

 

[dcar00 14159]

Lunardi still doesn't have us at last 4 in.