The Watch Fanatic Thread

[utxmike05 1,828]

Got my eye on a different model Speedy, so I am parting with my current one. I have it listed on ebay but would rather it go to someone local where we both can save on fees/taxes.  PM if interested.  
 

Ref 3570.50 Mechanical Wind

I have owned it for 4 years (bought from a coworker). Great condition just minor swirls from normal use.  Bezel was recently replaced by Omega.  Bracelet shown is all the links I have. My wrist is about 7.5”. 
 

 

 

[dieucla98 2,942]

One of my all time favorites. Good luck with the sale!

[Superhero 8,858]

6 hours ago, utxmike05 said:

Got my eye on a different model Speedy, so I am parting with my current one. I have it listed on ebay but would rather it go to someone local where we both can save on fees/taxes.  PM if interested.  
 

Ref 3570.50 Mechanical Wind

I have owned it for 4 years (bought from a coworker). Great condition just minor swirls from normal use.  Bezel was recently replaced by Omega.  Bracelet shown is all the links I have. My wrist is about 7.5”. 
 

 

 

Which Speedy are you going to replace it with?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

Whatcha askin?

Any pics out there of a speedy not on a bracelet? How’s it look dressed down?

[utxmike05 1,828]

10 hours ago, Superhero said:

Which Speedy are you going to replace it with?

I don't want to jinx it yet lol....got my on on a limited edition model....will post pics if it happens.

 

[utxmike05 1,828]

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Whatcha askin?

Any pics out there of a speedy not on a bracelet? How’s it look dressed down?

It’s one of the most versatile watches that works with any strap. Few pics of nato straps I have, for that weekender look. One pic is when I realized the bezel was gone lol.  Hence why it was replaced recently. 
 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

What size is it and how much are you asking @utxmike05?

[utxmike05 1,828]

24 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

What size is it and how much are you asking @utxmike05?

42mm

PM sent

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

ok thanks mike...i've been completely out of the watch game for a few years now, it's crazy how expensive everything has gotten. am i crazy or could you get a speedy for around $2500 not that long ago?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

ok thanks mike...i've been completely out of the watch game for a few years now, it's crazy how expensive everything has gotten. am i crazy or could you get a speedy for around $2500 not that long ago?

i'm an idiot...that was meant for pm @utxmike05.

derp.

[Chewbacca 7,787]

10 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

ok thanks mike...i've been completely out of the watch game for a few years now, it's crazy how expensive everything has gotten. am i crazy or could you get a speedy for around $2500 not that long ago?

Way to doxx him.  How would we know his name is Mike?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

20 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

Way to doxx him.  How would we know his name is Mike?

I’m just glad a didn’t do my usual PM signature of birthdate and social. 

[utxmike05 1,828]

Everything has gone up in price even on the grey market.  That be a good and bad thing I guess.  I'm not into watches to flip...I have a few holy grails I plan to keep forever and hand down.  But every now and then I see a model I want, so try to part with something in my collection to make my wife feel better lol.

[HoustonHorn 1,062]

1 hour ago, utxmike05 said:

Everything has gone up in price even on the grey market.  That be a good and bad thing I guess.  I'm not into watches to flip...I have a few holy grails I plan to keep forever and hand down.  But every now and then I see a model I want, so try to part with something in my collection to make my wife feel better lol.

Now is definitely the time to buy a watch or watches if you are thinking about it. EVERYTHING is going up right now. Very unique opportunity to get into luxury watches (that aren't Rolex/AP/PP/VC) and not lose money. This year is shaping up to be crazy for other brands, and especially luxury independents.

[HoustonHorn 1,062]

For anyone with the means, I highly suggest developing relationships with ADs for brands you are interested in so you have the opportunity to make purchases at retail in the future.

[utxmike05 1,828]

Agreed with the above.  Some grey market dealers are already taking advantage of shortages from the companies and ADs.  Some pre-owned watches are up like 20% from few years ago. I check chrono24 and other sites every now and then to check on trends of watches I have my eye on.....everything gone up even on some I own.

And prices on a 42mm Speedy start at $5250 new from Omega.  Most are sold out also from Omega.

 

[HoustonHorn 1,062]

All the brands are moving to control inventory and many are moving away from ADs and opening boutiques so they can realize the increased demand and prices. This isn't going to stop for quite a while. It's a fundamental shift in the industry.

Independent brands with limited production are exploding. Moser Streamliner went from selling at around retail or slightly less to 70% over retail just in the past few weeks.

[fattyflattie 4,638]

I passed on the only one I really wanted years ago, now up about 100% from that time.  Godamnit. 

[utxmike05 1,828]

36 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

I passed on the only one I really wanted years ago, now up about 100% from that time.  Godamnit. 

Dude all the Rolex GMTs I had my eye on for years... almost doubled also.

[fattyflattie 4,638]

20 minutes ago, utxmike05 said:

Dude all the Rolex GMTs I had my eye on for years... almost doubled also.

Yep. That was my second favorite.  Such is life, I suppose.  

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

Well shit, now I’m contacting dealers about speedmasters from my birth year. 
 

somebody want to talk me out of this please? 41ish year old watch, weathered and very much imperfect, like myself.

Edited January 24, 2022 by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

[HoustonHorn 1,062]

No, there is no better time to buy any luxury watch. Well maybe 6 months ago. Beautiful watch, enjoy it!

[52-80 19,271]

On 1/21/2022 at 7:56 PM, utxmike05 said:

Agreed with the above.  Some grey market dealers are already taking advantage of shortages from the companies and ADs.  Some pre-owned watches are up like 20% from few years ago. I check chrono24 and other sites every now and then to check on trends of watches I have my eye on.....everything gone up even on some I own.

And prices on a 42mm Speedy start at $5250 new from Omega.  Most are sold out also from Omega.

 

sounds like a good time to offload my watch collection and dump it into dogecoins

[dieucla98 2,942]

I don't think anyone here is going to talk you out of a birth year speedy pro. If they do, they're in the wrong thread.

[Superhero 8,858]

On 1/21/2022 at 8:25 AM, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

ok thanks mike...i've been completely out of the watch game for a few years now, it's crazy how expensive everything has gotten. am i crazy or could you get a speedy for around $2500 not that long ago?

I got mine back in 2014. It was used in mint condition. I paid $2,750 for it.

[statsman 5,486]

This is my daily wearer. My dad found it on a pistol range in the ‘70s, and when nobody responded to the flyer he put up, he kept it. It fell into disrepair and found its way to me, absent its original jubilee bracelet. 
A few years ago, I decided to have it fixed up, posted a pic on the old site, and received a lot of great advice on what to do and not to do. Watchmakers, Int. did the servicing and put a 78360 oyster bracelet on. 
I put about $3k into this watch, and I understand that it’s now worth about $15k. These prices are crazy. Many is the time that I think of selling it and buying something new. I’ve even thought of selling the dial and hands and buying service ones to replace, to make it look newer. And it is probably near time to have service done again. 

[huge 3,795]

Unless your daughter needs surgery don't sell that watch.

But definitely buy something else new and post pics and add it into your mix.

[Reynolds Woodcock 4,815]

Dumb question amnesty please. When people say “it’s to get the watch serviced”, what does that mean? Do you know it’s time by performance, or just every 5 years bring it in the shop?

[huge 3,795]

3 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Dumb question amnesty please. When people say “it’s to get the watch serviced”, what does that mean? Do you know it’s time by performance, or just every 5 years bring it in the shop?

Generally I service if there is an issue.  If it is not keeping decent time is the biggest indicator.

 

I went over 15 years before my initial service my Rolex SSDJ.  Others might tell you to be more proactive.

[52-80 19,271]

3 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Dumb question amnesty please. When people say “it’s to get the watch serviced”, what does that mean? Do you know it’s time by performance, or just every 5 years bring it in the shop?

mechanical watches are "supposed" to be serviced every 5 years or so.  mostly its to refresh the lubrication, change gaskets if present, things like that.

i dont do it unless the watch runs off or something goes wrong like pushers or dials feel bad. 

mostly the item is strongly sealed, so theres no real damage for it to run as-is.

[Gladeite 375]

I have had my Cartier Santos 36 years and it had it serviced 16 years ago.  It is slowing down a bit, but still keeps reasonable time.  Kind of like me.  There was nothing wrong with it the last time.  I just fell for the Cartier sales guy pitch.  $800 later I got a polished watch back.  I don't plan on getting it serviced again.

[AUinHsv 579]

5 hours ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Dumb question amnesty please. When people say “it’s to get the watch serviced”, what does that mean? Do you know it’s time by performance, or just every 5 years bring it in the shop?

On my Sub it was time when it totally stopped running.

[cabowabo 4,514]

6 hours ago, statsman said:

 I’ve even thought of selling the dial and hands and buying service ones to replace, to make it look newer.

Get that shit out of your mind.  And don't send that to Rolex for service as they may change shit out whether you like it or not.

[Sam Lin 3,564]

On 1/21/2022 at 12:29 PM, HoustonHorn said:

Independent brands with limited production are exploding. Moser Streamliner went from selling at around retail or slightly less to 70% over retail just in the past few weeks.

What other models are you seeing start to go up? Might be an arbitrage opportunity here.

[pops 7,007]

With the current prices of legit models or makes high end replicas look very enticing

[Sam Lin 3,564]

Replicas never look enticing.

[HoustonHorn 1,062]

What other models are you seeing start to go up? Might be an arbitrage opportunity here.

I'm into Czapek too. The Antarctique is special and hits the luxury sports watch with integrated bracelet market. Can be a little tough to get, but if you're willing to wait 6-8 months you can get them. Nearly unknown at this point.

AnOrdain on the 2k or less spectrum. Waiting list only right now. Amazing enamel dials.

Sartory Billard

Ming for mostly lower $ luxury.

Anything Kari Voutilainen is involved in.

Groenfeld

Kudoke

Laurent Ferrier

Rexhep Rexhep - not possible

MB&F/Debethune - rare and definitely not for everyone. Machines on the wrist.

Ressence - Also very different but extremely cool.

Anything independent with low production should do well, but those above are really starting to take off.

Micros - Halios, Farer, Brew, Dietrich, Orion are some that I've picked up lately to wear. These are getting some increased attention as well and for a few of those you can sell it used but in good shape for at close to or above retail for the most popular models for the foreseeable future. So...free watch. All are $1k or less.

But mostly Moser. 1500 watches per year is very low - FP Journe is about 800. Patek is 60,000+. Legit history to the name and the family is still "involved" at least in a supportive role. This wasn't just a purchase/payout/cash grab which I think adds legitimacy the brand. In-house movements.

Exciting, young CEO who is a 5th generation watchmaker and is heavily involved in the design process. His family bought the name maybe 10 or 12 years ago. Very passionate and is very innovative (see the Vantablack). .

A much much better image than a stodgy old watchmaker. It's a brand that people can buy into easily and feel the excitement of being part of a small family.

They make their own hairsprings which is very very rare. But more than that, they make the supply for pretty much the entire independent watch industry. So they are both insulated from outside risks and have incredible partnering opportunities. Had a recent successful collaboration with MB&F.

Almost no traditional advertising but very effectively use cheeky, clever humor to get attention, see the Apple Watch or the Swiss Mad Cow unique piece as examples. They aren't really known outside of watch enthusiasts yet, but prices on popular models are at or higher than retail with the Streamliner matrix green selling for 37k when retail is 21k. Their more traditional entry level models are just now starting to get hot with pre-owned prices up 20+% in just the last few months.

Extremely eye-catching watches. Perfect for IG but they are also in the same ADs as all the regular high end brands (at least the ones that are now left since many seem to be moving to boutiques only and dropping ADs). So you can physically see them before buying them which is very different from most independents.

And if you've ever walked past them, you'll notice them. So brand recognition will be high among somewhat regular watch buyers, even if they are there for something else.

Rolex is getting unobtainable and the money has to go somewhere. The entry level models are in the 14-22k range which is what people are paying for entry level Rolexes now and even more for some stupid colored OPs. But I digress. Compare a Moser dial to the OPs and it isn't even close. Demand for colored dials is there and Moser does it as well or better than anyone.

So physically and cost wise they are in close proximity with grey market Rolex. In quality they are in a completely different league and those movements on the back are going to start selling watches as much as the dials. Rolex steel caseback compared to some incredibly decorated movements. IG Flex.

No they aren't for everybody. This isn't your grandfather's watch. But they only need 1501 people to want one before demands starts to outstrip supply. I love them personally.

Watchbox.com, watchbox.com, watchbox.com. $165M cash influx from Michael Jordan and other NBA players. One billion dollar valuation. Moser is one of their most highlighted brands. Throw a Mad "Bulls" Red Pioneer on MJ. Demand will skyrocket. In all honesty it will only take 1 really big name celebrity influencer to post one on IG and they will become extremely desirable. They are spring/summer watches, so I expect the new model releases at Watches & Wonders to really get excitement going and that momentum increasing through the summer.

2 years people have sat around searching the internet and finding alternatives to Rolex like Zenith, Omega, Grand Seiko. That leads to some exposure to these independent brands and to the fact there are better and different options out there. Moser sets up very nicely to fill that space over the next year or two.

And its a pretty big step up from those brands in quality and hand finishing, but its also a big step up in value because production is so so so much lower than those big brands. Collectors who are interested in the brand have figured this out and prices are already going up. Throw on some media hype....

Yes, I'm in on Moser.

Art for the wrist.

[G650 14,278]

3 hours ago, HoustonHorn said:

Laurent Ferrier

Yassss

[HoustonHorn 1,062]

2 hours ago, G650 said:

Yassss

Tough to get and quite expensive. Czapek Antarctique is about 50% of low end LF, Moser (Pioneer) about 33% of low end LF.

And to be clear, the above isn't financial advice. Just my observations on the strengths of the company at this particular time in the current watch market. I'd love to have every brand above, but Moser and Czapek are the horses I've chosen to ride. If they do well maybe I can add a few pieces to the permanent collection. If they don't, then you probably won't see me on this thread for quite a while.

Edited January 27, 2022 by HoustonHorn

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

Post removed.

Edited January 27, 2022 by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

[HoustonHorn 1,062]

I should add that there is a very bespoke feel to independent watchmaking. Definitely a much more upscale, luxury experience than haggling over what jewelry to buy to get into a submariner within a few months. That actually matters because buyers are getting frustrated with the Rolex experience.

Not trying to bag on Rolex. The first "investment" watch I bought was a Rolex Kermit (up 10-15% this year already) and I'm working my way into an AD so I can move up their priority list in the future. Their marketing, inventory control, and model consistency is brilliant and turned it into an investment grade asset similar to PP/AP and now VC. And their business model has created a fundamental shift in many other watch/luxury brands looking to create a similar supply/demand profile - that's why many brands are dropping ADs and going to boutiques, slashing AD margins, and focusing on inventory control. Even if at this point its being done to create artificial scarcity, its working and grey market prices are generally going up across the board. 

Certainly the big 4 are the safer long term play and should continue to do well. But if you haven't spent 6 figures with any of the trinity brands already, you aren't going to get a sports watch from any of them for a long time. Rolex is possible, but very difficult without spending a lot of money to move up the list. It is definitely worth trying to establish those relationships now if you have the means because its hard to find any other investment with a guaranteed 25-100% return the second you walk out the door.

But Moser entry level watches and Czapek sports models are available, although a little difficult to find. And imo, they are better and more unique pieces of craftsmanship. The independent community is very small and it is still very easy to make very good, close connections with the brands and even the watchmakers themselves in some cases. I've stayed away from micro-independents though because there will be limited demand for a one-off unique piece that you designed directly with the watchmaker. Plus, would you really want to sell something like that? And if you did, it would be pretty obvious as soon as that piece went on the market and you'd lose that relationship. Anything that custom should be for a personal, long-term collection, not an investment.

But the best part is this all happening with pre-owned watches. So you can actually enjoy wearing some of the watches if you're careful with them.

Get in with an AD or several (the availability varies significantly from AD to AD) first so you have access to future releases. Then buy pre-owned at or less than market value. Hold/wear lightly for the next 6 months to a year and see how things are trending. The biggest downside I see in the short term is loss of liquidity. That said, larger market forces or world war 3 could certainly change things, but in that case, none of your investments will be worth a shit and at least with this you have a beautiful watch or watches to enjoy through the end times.

 

[HoustonHorn 1,062]

Response to NHWC.

I would definitely start with the Omega forums or WUS Omega. But start communication with the seller in advance of doing that so you are first in line and keep someone from stealing it out from under you. No guarantee obviously. I dipped my toes into vintage, but quickly switched to independents. Vintage watches can be a great long term investment, but you really really have to get into the minutae and understand all of the details of what models/variations/etc. are popular and why. That is boring to me personally, but I know some people with pretty insane vintage collections. Also, they can be a pain in the ass compared to newer watches.

Finally, for any long term holds, definitely factor in servicing costs. Vintage or new. These aren't off the shelf ETA/Sellita movements you can take to your local watchmaker/repairer and the costs can add up quickly.

Edited January 27, 2022 by HoustonHorn

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

6 minutes ago, HoustonHorn said:

I would definitely start with the Omega forums or WUS Omega. But start communication with the seller in advance of doing that so you are first in line and keep someone from stealing it out from under you. No guarantee obviously. I dipped my toes into vintage, but quickly switched to independents. Vintage watches can be a great long term investment, but you really really have to get into the minutae and understand all of the details of what models/variations/etc. are popular and why. That is boring to me personally, but I know some people with pretty insane vintage collections. Also, they can be a pain in the ass compared to newer watches.

Finally, for any long term holds, definitely factor in servicing costs. Vintage or new. These aren't off the shelf ETA/Sellita movements you can take to your local watchmaker/repairer and the costs can add up quickly.

Yeah thought about going to the forums, but I’d lose out on the watch if it’s legit. I’m trying to get the guys number so I can talk with him but Mercado libre keeps deleting my questions trying to get his info.

If it’s legit, surely a reseller in Mexico would have snagged it though?

Thinking about having my buddy meet the guy, get better pics of everything, and see if the seller will agree to have it sent to a reputable watch maker in Monterrey…if it’s legit, I’ll pay for the service and buy the watch, if it’s not, he pays.

[HoustonHorn 1,062]

5 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Yeah thought about going to the forums, but I’d lose out on the watch if it’s legit. I’m trying to get the guys number so I can talk with him but Mercado libre keeps deleting my questions trying to get his info.

If it’s legit, surely a reseller in Mexico would have snagged it though?

Thinking about having my buddy meet the guy, get better pics of everything, and see if the seller will agree to have it sent to a reputable watch maker in Monterrey…if it’s legit, I’ll pay for the service and buy the watch, if it’s not, he pays.

I'm not much help, but definitely have it checked out by an independent, reputable watchmaker.

[G650 14,278]

        My take on vintage is do it for watches you like, not  for investment.  imo. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

4 minutes ago, G650 said:

        My take on vintage is do it for watches you like, not  for investment.  imo. 

Este. Not even concerned with its value. I don’t plan on selling it, and am fully convinced im buying right before the bubble is going to burst.

don’t care had sex.

[HoustonHorn 1,062]

11 minutes ago, G650 said:

        My take on vintage is do it for watches you like, not  for investment.  imo. 

This is actually really good advice for any watch. I'm still in on the independents though for the next year. There's a lot of momentum and very limited supply so I think its worth the risk for the potential return. Plus I get to enjoy some really badass watches in the meantime.

[statsman 5,486]

Vintage-here are examples of what is available in three to low four figures: quality chronographs, WWII spec army watches, stylish watches, funky watches…(note- these are not mine; these are screen grabs from the internet. I have considered buying all of these) 

Edited January 27, 2022 by statsman

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

well fuckin' A. file this one under DID THAT JUST HAPPEN?

So I'm all horned up for a vintage moon watch, have tried to make something happen on a couple from my birth year, can't get the deal done. last night i'm up scouring the web and find a 1969 pre-moon for a price that is just too good to be true. guy has been trying to sell it on there for months but has no seller history. 

i'm asking him questions through the site but you can't get any contact info through mercado libre. everything on the watch looks legit, but he put weird Serial Numbers and 'Adjustable Clasp' number on the description. it doesn't make any sense...then i realize if i combine the numbers, it's a phone number in monterrey. so i message the number on whatsapp and sure enough it's the dude.

so i have a friend from monterrey who happens to be there right now. i call him and ask if he knows a really good watchmaker in monterrey. turns out he does, puts me in touch with that guy, i call him and tell him i need him to check out a watch. i give his info to the seller, seller drops the watch off, watchmaker calls me and tells me it's all original in perfect condition.

i can't even say what i paid for it. i can't believe that just happened.

[HoustonHorn 1,062]

That's gorgeous man. A truly beautiful and a historically significant timepiece. Congrats!