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Dallas Stars 2021-2022 Season Thread

Longhorn_Fan68

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shadow_operative2.0
shadow_operative2.0

Easy 2 pts, never a doubt. 

Longhorn_Fan68
Longhorn_Fan68

Joel L'Esperance seems like he sucks

cactusflinthead
cactusflinthead

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33859

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tough game last night. Started out slow and could never recover, going down 1-5 and ending at 4-5. outplayed DET the last two periods.

Back at it tonight. Curious who they put in goal. Scheele tidied up the net after Poirier shit the bed. The usual suspects looked good. Harley is a great puck-jacker. Tufte might actually pan out (maybe as trade bait). Damiani looked real good. Dellandrea looked slow, or out of place, or like he didn't really want to be there. I'm thinking his time in Dallas got his britches a little big. We'll see. So far he's been the least impressive of the touted players. I'm not sold. Stankoven was a nice surprise. We'll see if he can maintain his good play from yesterday.

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1 hour ago, Longboard Horn said:

Let's cut off a finger to save the hand and let go of Ben Bishop

Sounds about right to me. Also, on the 2 depth charts I've seen, Oettinger is listed #1. I mean ... he looked pretty good, but I didn't think he'd moved ahead of Khudobin by any stretch.

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cactusflinthead

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"The theme of consistency is obvious throughout the two units. On the top unit, the line of Robertson, Hintz and Pavelski stays intact. On the second unit, there’s the longstanding chemistry of Seguin and Benn and the newfound chemistry of Benn with Gurianov."

Saad on The Athletic

 

pre-season on the littlest of tickets tonight

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Longhorn_Fan68

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I'm kind of excited to see what this team can do. Both Rads and Segs got major repairs in the offseason so hopefully they'll compete to their potential. Same with Hintz. Add in up and coming players like Robertson and Kivi with veterans like Pavs and I think we have the makings of a really good team. Not to even mention the D. Hearing it might be Suter with Klinger, Esa with Miro, with Hankanpaa and Sekera rounding out the top 6. Hakanpaa sounds like a Big Rig clone with more of a penchant to hunt down the puck. He might see time with Miro since the pairing with Oleksiak worked so well.

I think the only question mark is goaltending, and not for lack of talent. I have confidence in Dobby, Otter, and even Holtby. I'll be super surprised if Bish ever suits up again, but if he can come back healthy then this team becomes super dangerous.

Should be fun to see how it shakes out.

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C-Man

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I'm sure a lot of you subscribe to The Athletic. They think our best goalie is starting the season in the minors. (I do too.)

Here's their Dallas Stars' Season Preview:

https://theathletic.com/2842993/2021/10/01/dallas-stars-2021-22-season-preview/

Quote

Dallas Stars 2021-22 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings

By Dom Luszczyszyn Oct 1, 2021 63 

One of the most shocking things that happened in the shortened 2020-21 season was the Dallas Stars going from Stanley Cup finalist to outside the playoffs entirely. Though the Stars probably weren’t the bonafide contenders a lengthy playoff run suggested, the playoffs still should’ve been a relatively safe bet for what looked like a strong team.

The injury bug had other plans. We all knew Tyler Seguin and Ben Bishop would be out for a while, but that was supposed to be until the end of March and not the entire season. Those are big losses that the team struggled to recover from, but on top of that the Stars also dealt with Alex Radulov missing a majority of the season and Roope Hintz being a game-time decision every night.

A healthy Stars team probably makes the playoffs last season, but good health alone doesn’t make Dallas a safe bet this season. An old group gets older and they’ll have to fight for a spot in a much tougher division. 

The Projection

The Stars enter the season very likely to be a middling playoff team. They have a 60 percent shot at the postseason and a 53 percent chance at landing in the league’s middle third. This model is age-adjusted and the Stars would likely be rated more favourably if that wasn’t the case. Staving off the impacts of age-related decline will be crucial. 

While the Central Division looks very tough this season, the Stars are in the driver’s seat and control their own destiny as long as they play up to expectations. Or better. The logjam in the Central is perfectly encapsulated by Dallas’ chances of landing anywhere from second to seventh, with all six spots having a double-digit probability. Being as bad as Arizona or as good as Colorado is a serious longshot for anyone in the Central, but anything in between is fair game.

It’s basically a toss-up and the Stars are right in the middle of it all. The big thing is that at the very least the team should be improved from last season where they finished at an 88-point pace. It’s no guarantee, but Dallas finishes above that mark 77 percent of the time — the question is just how high this team can go?

That obviously depends on what the team’s best players can show and there are a lot of question marks there relative to other top teams.

The Roster

For clarity, each player’s projected win value shown is over a full 82-game pace to better visualize each player’s expected true talent level. The team’s simulated record accounts for injuries and expected time missed using a games played projection.

Last season saw a changing of the guard up front. The Stars used to belong to Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and to a lesser extent Alex Radulov, but with two of those former stars injured Dallas needed someone else to step up. Enter a new-look top line starring Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson.

They were the league’s most unexpected dynamic duo with Hintz scoring at a 45-point pace the year prior and Robertson not exactly being the most highly-touted prospect. Both looked like they could be good players for Dallas with Robertson maybe needing some time to get there, but last year they were great players. That part was the big surprise.

Hintz exploded last season scoring 43 points in 41 games, a ludicrous 86-point pace that nearly doubled his pace from the year prior. That ranked 17th in the league, making him arguably one of the most unlikely point-per-game scorers in the league. That came from incredible efficiency at five-on-five with 2.65 points-per-60, and even greater numbers on the power play with 9.58 points-per-60. That not only led the league, it was the fifth-highest of any forward to play over 100 minutes since 2007-08. To top it off, he was a force at five-on-five, posting a 58 percent expected goals rate and 67 percent actual goals rate, both of which were among the best marks on the team. It was enough to make Hintz worth four wins per 82 games, an incredibly high rate.

Hintz improved on his zone entry numbers going from a 54 percent carry-in rate to 66 percent and he became a much better playmaker too. Last season was a legitimate step for him, enough to consider him a true top-line player. That he did all of that with a lingering injury that kept him day-to-day all season is nothing short of incredible. It may lead some to expect him to be even better this season, but expecting him to repeat the magic is a tall order. When a player scores at the fifth-highest power-play rate over the last 14 years, more than Connor McDavid in a historic season, some regression is expected. Dallas scored on 22 percent of its shots with Hintz on the ice with the man advantage. The same is true for his five-on-five point rate which was over twice as strong as the year prior likely in part to an on-ice shooting percentage of 11.4 percent. Neither is particularly sustainable and it’s why Hintz’s point total is expected to drop to between 65-to-70 points. Still good, just not quite elite.

Robertson is expected to be almost equally valuable to Hintz, but that may be a stretch. Because last year’s stellar rookie season is his only one on the books he doesn’t have priors that drag him down like Hintz does. That means the model expects him to be in the same 65-to-70 point range, which isn’t much of a downgrade from last season. If Hintz’s scoring drops, it stands to reason that Robertson’s will too as Hintz is the likely driver on that line. Both players looked special last season, but their production will be difficult to repeat. As long as they’re still driving play at an elite rate at five-on-five though, that top line will be tough to handle.

That aspect likely falls on Joe Pavelski, the third member of that top line who delivered an incredible twilight season after a disappointing inaugural season as a Star. He led the team in points, scoring 51 in 56 games, a 75-point pace that was his highest in five years. That’s not usually what’s expected from 36-year-old players, but it was clear from his play in the Stanley Cup Final run that Pavelski wasn’t ready to fade away. Most impressive was his defensive acumen where he put up arguably one of his best-ever seasons, good enough for a seventh-place finish in the Selke race. That arguably didn’t do his play justice as the Stars allowed just 1.75 expected goals against per 60 and a stunning 1.26 actual goals per 60 with Pavelski on the ice. Relative to a his teammates, both numbers were among the best of his career — and that’s on a much stingier Dallas team.

Pavelski has always been a two-way force at five-on-five and though his production wasn’t up to par in his first season as a Star, that part of his game remained intact. Last season he brought things up to a new level and that helped elevate Dallas’ top line to being one of the league’s most dominant. Like Hintz and Robertson though, the question is whether he can repeat the feat and stay elite. At 37, I have my doubts. He should still be a top-line caliber player with excellent defensive impacts, but his scoring is projected to drop down to the 55-point range.

That’s the team’s new top line and it’s a good one, landing just outside the league’s top 10 with potential for more if all three don’t regress as much as expected. That leaves the former top line occupying the middle six, which is likely a much more appropriate spot for their current level of ability.

Benn is the only one of the three to actually play much last season and though he had a solid bounce-back campaign, it might’ve been stronger with his usual mates. Benn didn’t have much lineup consistency throughout the year, especially once the top line became inseparable and that meant a lot of bouncing around with Dallas’ weaker depth players. Those are difficult conditions to thrive under as Benn was at his absolute best last year playing with Pavelski. He may not be a driver in his own right anymore, but he can still deliver strong results with help. 

Despite the lack of help, Benn saw a strong return to form with his assist rate and it was only his lack of scoring that stifled him from returning to a 60-point pace. Once the strongest part of his game, Benn scored on just 5.6 percent of his shots at five-on-five, a career low that led to just 0.43 goals-per-60 which was also a career low. He isn’t creating the quality chances he used to, a product of the ageing process, but with better linemates he should be able to be more productive. Even without the flashy point totals, Benn still delivered excellent on-ice results with a 57 percent expected goals rate and 72 percent of the actual goals. His ability to drive play remains unchanged and that makes him a valuable asset in the top six, even if he isn’t the bonafide top-line talent he once was.

Both Seguin and Radulov are wild cards in that regard having each missed the majority of the 2021 season. Neither was at that level in 2019-20, but both were still elite-level talents in 2018-19 that boost their projections. In Radulov’s case, he was very good in the 11 games he did play, posting 12 points with strong possession numbers. Before 2019-20, both players were the focal points for the Stars’ attack so it’ll be interesting to see how they fare in the middle six, assuming Dallas keeps its top line. They could be much stronger than expected without the burden of top-line responsibility, though it doesn’t appear the Seguin, Radulov, and Benn trio will be together at least to start. The idea there is to create balance throughout the lineup, rather than a top-heavy attack.

Tyler Seguin scored two goals in three games last season. (Kim Klement / USA TODAY Sports)

Overall it’s a strong group of six, all of whom grade out above top line level even if two are just above the cut-off and none grade out as elite. There’ll surely be issues finding everyone the appropriate ice time, especially on the power play, but it’s a nice luxury to have. The only other team with as many many top line level players as Dallas according to GSVA is Florida, a near lock for the playoffs. The major difference between the two up front, aside from elite talent, is depth. Florida has a number of capable talents that can contribute, while Dallas has Denis Gurianov, Joel Kiviranta and four skaters who are worth minus-1.1 wins combined. It’s the difference between a 60 percent chance at the playoffs, and one above 70 percent.

That’s likely why the middle-six goal seems to be one of balance rather than stacking the deck. Gurianov is a decent talent with plenty of speed to burn, a very useful asset to have in the transition game. With Hintz on the top line, it makes sense to have someone like Gurianov shouldering the load on the second line with two older plays who are a bit more passive carrying the puck up ice. He has the potential to be a great scorer if he can create as many chances as he did in 2019-20. Kiviranta made a name for himself during the Stars’ Cup Final run and was one of the team’s more productive players last season. He scored 1.86 points-per-60 over 26 games which was fourth behind only the three guys from the top line, with Gurianov coming in at fifth. The only reason Kiviranta isn’t rated better is because he struggled to push play compared to the other forwards on the team and that makes me a bit skeptical he can keep up his scoring efficiency. He ranked third in primary assist rate, but second-to-last in shot assist rate. Something doesn’t add up there, though to his credit a large majority of his feeds were of the high danger variety.

The fourth line being all negative value shouldn’t be too surprising — though Luke Glendening may surprise on an actually competent team in a lesser role — but Radek Faksa having the highest negative impact likely does. He’s slated for the third line and has name brand value as a defensive specialist, but that seems to be reputation-based more than actual ability. No Stars forward allowed more expected goals against per 60 last season and he’s been among the team’s worst in each of the prior two seasons. That he offers very little offensively lessens his value further and his points-per-60 has dropped in three straight seasons. While Faksa once scored at a second-line rate, he’s been roughly fourth-line calibre in each of the last three seasons. Of 388 forwards to play 1,000 minutes over the time frame Faksa’s scoring rate ranks 349th.

The team’s forwards look roughly average, though things would look a lot better with even one of those negative value players replaced by an actual top-nine caliber player. The Jason Dickinson trade may not have seemed like much at the time, but he’s a nifty player whose presence is missed here.

The team’s defense is pretty similar in how the value is distributed. The top four, like the top nine, has every pair hovering around the top 10, while the bottom pair is a bit of a write-off. In total, it’s a mostly average group with potential for more if some talented players can enter the elite tier.

That Miro Heiskanen isn’t there already feels wrong, but at 2.1 wins he’s close. That’s just barely under the cut-off and he’s rated as the 22nd best defenseman in the league. He probably deserves more praise than that given his ability to move the puck up ice thanks to his passing and skating ability. Heiskanen is one of the very best defenders at exiting the zone with control and entering the offensive zone too. He’s an end-to-end machine, is great at making plays offensively, and is strong defensively on top of that. There’s little he can’t do so why the lower than expected rating? It’s because he hasn’t quite hit his offensive upside yet like many expected. No Stars defender was on for fewer goals for per 60 last season, which is probably bad luck, but did impact Heiskanen’s production. He went from 1.03 points-per-60 in 2019-20, to 0.74 in 2020-21. After the flashes of offensive dominance he showed in the 2020 playoffs his 2020-21 season was a bit disappointing in that regard.

That doesn’t mean he can’t get there, it just means he might not be there yet. Public analytics likely underrate his impact based on his ability in transition, but you’d still like to see a bit more offense. That John Klingberg stands in Heiskanen’s way probably doesn’t help as their roles on the team are very different. Heiskanen takes on the tough assignments in a defensive-minded role, while Klingberg is placed in a more offensive role with more of Dallas’ skill players to play with. The forward depth getting a boost from Seguin’s and Radulov’s returns should help with that though as it gives both pairs a strong forward line to play with. Still, the top job on the power play belongs to Klingberg, which does hamper Heiskanen’s potential production.

That’s for good reason though as Klingberg has continuously proven to be the more effective option with the man advantage. He’s consistently scored over six points-per-60 with the man advantage over the last three seasons while Heiskanen’s 4.5 last season was a career high, up from 2.7 the year prior. Klingberg ranks fifth league-wide over the last three seasons in power-play production per 60 and as long as he’s still a Star, it’s his job to lose.

Klingberg’s best asset is his ability as a power-play quarterback, but his five-on-five play has slipped the 2017-18 season where he looked like a future superstar. In each of the last two seasons the Stars have been outscored with Klingberg on the ice and though they haven’t been out-chanced, his relative impact was in the negatives. Klingberg looks like only a slightly above average play-driver despite some of his microstats looking comparable to Heiskanen’s. He too looked like a different beast during that Cup Final run so there’s an expectation for more from him. If the Stars get that double elite defense look like they did during those playoffs, they can be a force. Those two can be the tide that lifts the team and both certainly have the talent to do so. It’s about unlocking it on a consistent basis.

Heiskanen will have a new partner this season in the venerable Ryan Suter after Jamie Oleksiak was lost in the expansion draft. Oleksiak was a very strong player for Dallas and fit well with Heiskanen, but Dallas did well here in finding a suitable replacement. Suter’s play has slipped, but he still has some game in him and has maintained strong on-ice numbers in a tough minutes role still to this day. There’s a worthy argument that his play was carried by Jared Spurgeon, but that shouldn’t be a problem here considering he’s going to now play with Heiskanen.

As for Klingberg, the always reliable Esa Lindell is on the case as the defensive conscience of that pair. He grades out as a second-pairing caliber player, one who is elite at defending the blue line and his own net, but is extremely limited with the puck on his stick. He’s one of the league’s worst at exiting the zone and has below average utility in the offensive zone, but as long as Klingberg is on the other side that pair should be fine. Both players complement the other’s strengths and weaknesses well.

Dallas has a strong group of skaters at both forward and defence, but games are won and lost in net and that’s where the team looks incredibly fragile … and somewhat confusing. 

Ben Bishop was supposed to be back last March, but if signing Braden Holtby is any indication it seems very unlikely he’ll be in the lineup much if at all this season. That signing also likely means that Jake Oettinger, the team’s best goaltender last year, will start the season in the AHL in favour of two worse options. Sure.

Anton Khudobin is the likely starter here and it seems like age has caught up with him. After back-to-back seasons above .922 for the Stars, Khudobin plummeted to a .905 season, struggling to be “The Guy” when needed. That’s weird considering how strong he was as the top dog during the Cup Final run, but it’s likely a more difficult ask to do it over a full season. Khudobin saved 8.1 goals above expected in 2018-19 and 5.9 goals above expected in 2019-20, but dropped to minus-9.5 last season. That’s not good enough and it’s difficult to expect a bounce back at age 35.

After years of goaltending saving the team, it was a back-breaker last season on multiple occasions. The team decided to bring Holtby into the mix to solve the problem, but he’s very unlikely to be the answer given his past two seasons. Holtby obviously used to be one of the league’s premier goalies, but it’s been a long time since he’s played at that level. In 2019-20 he had an abysmal season with an .898 save percentage while allowing 13 goals above expected and though the Canucks expected a bounce-back campaign in 2020-21, it wasn’t meant to be. Holtby was even worse, boasting an .889 save percentage and allowing 8.8 goals above expected over just 21 games. Over the last two seasons he has the eighth worst goals saved above expected rate.

A surprise Bishop return would do a lot to boost Dallas’ fortunes. That or a surprise renaissance season from either of Khudobin or Holtby. Either way, it would be a surprise to see the Stars get strong goaltending this season and that’s a problem. It’s what’s keeping the team from a more certain playoff future.

For an older group, that’s far from ideal. The Stars came oh so close in 2019-20 and it feels like they’re not going to get a better chance unless all the stars align and everything goes right. There’s plenty of potential here, especially after last year’s breakout seasons from Hintz and Robertson, but there’s also a strong chance of decline from one of the league’s oldest groups. Good health should help and this should be a playoff team. It’s just hard to expect much more than that.

 

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33859

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After feeling ill yesterday, looks like Rads is good to go today - skating with Been and Segs on the top line this morning. Holtby in net. No Robertson or Comeau, but everyone else seems healthy. Interested to  get a look at Hakanpaa (he's like Oleksiak with more skill, from what I hear) and Peterson. The latter being our Jason Robertson story of this season (hopefully).

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C-Man

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38 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

After feeling ill yesterday, looks like Rads is good to go today - skating with Been and Segs on the top line this morning. Holtby in net. No Robertson or Comeau, but everyone else seems healthy. Interested to  get a look at Hakanpaa (he's like Oleksiak with more skill, from what I hear) and Peterson. The latter being our Jason Robertson story of this season (hopefully).

What's up with Robertson?

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cactusflinthead

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Saad on 10/6

Is it getting whichever players are playing the best, regardless of position, or do you have a preference for how many defensemen you want on the roster?

“Again, we’re going to have to deal with that when we get there,” Bowness said after a brief pause, now breaking into a laugh. “I know what you’re saying. I’m going to try to talk around it. We’ll deal with that when we get there.”

Twelve hours earlier, in the same room at the AAC after the morning skate, I asked Bowness about Swedish forward prospect, Jacob Peterson. After surviving a few rounds of cuts, was Peterson still on the NHL roster because the team wanted to get a deeper look at him for when he eventually gets called up? Or, is Peterson a legitimate option for an NHL roster spot on opening night?

“Both. He’s looked very good and he’s fit in with whoever you’ve played him with,” Bowness said. “He played with Seggy the other night. The guys love playing with him because he’s got such good hockey sense and skills. He makes plays and he kills penalties, he’s good on the power play. We want to keep looking at him but he’s put himself in a position, in a serious position, to make the hockey club. He’s been that good.”

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