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Texas opens as a 6 point favorite @TCU

TexasMan

By TexasMan
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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52342

Posted
Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

The last two teams with a pulse we have played have averaged 37.5 points against our D

 

im not touching this game

So just play the over

 

as a matter of fact, always play the over on Texas games. That way when the opponent scores there’s a positive tangent. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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Zeus

Zeus 5950

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2 hours ago, Hammerin Hank said:

Georgia -18 against Arkansas seems like way too many points 

Yeah their QB is hurt and their best WR is hurt.

They excel in the run and Georgia is built to stop the run with a good DL.

Also that Arkie 3 DL shit is gonna get them blown off the ball to infinity.

I fucking hate hate hate Georgia but this one is a layup for them.

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Zeus

Zeus 5950

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32 minutes ago, Axle Hongsnort said:


Don’t books make money by just getting people to bet?

They set the lines to entice people to bet, but also to try and keep the betting even. They make money on the vig or the juice.

They set a line to try and get even money on both sides, but the payout is like $95 on $100 bet. So if they have even money on both sides,, they can payout the winning side with the losing side money and keep the juice by not paying 1:1 on a 50/50 odds bet.

 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32701

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37 minutes ago, Axle Hongsnort said:


Don’t books make money by just getting people to bet?

 

Just now, TexArcher said:

Yes.  Vegas doesn't pick games or try to make people guess wrong.  They want the same amount of money on both sides so the losers pay the winners and the house takes the juice risk-free.

This is not actually correct. If the money is split evenly then yes they make the vig. But books will very frequently stake a position if they think the money is wrong.

But my only point there was that if the line is moving rapidly one direction then you know that the money is coming on that side of the bet. So take the Louisiana and Tech games. The lines moved a lot towards Texas's opponent in both cases. So you know the money was coming in heavy against Texas. However, Texas ended up beating not only the closing line, but also the opening line in both games. That means that the books won a shit ton of money because the vast majority was obviously coming in against Texas but Texas covered against every single one of those bets.

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ATLLonghorn

ATLLonghorn 841

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Posted

I hate this game every year. It's Gary Patterson's Superbowl and it will always be more important to them than us. I also have this feeling the last time we play them before we move to the SEC is the last time we're going to play them in the regular season because I don't see an upside in scheduling them anymore. We still might just that much better than them, but it's not a game I take lightly. I hate those fuckers.

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TexArcher

TexArcher 37508

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

 

This is not actually correct. If the money is split evenly then yes they make the vig. But books will very frequently stake a position if they think the money is wrong.

But my only point there was that if the line is moving rapidly one direction then you know that the money is coming on that side of the bet. So take the Louisiana and Tech games. The lines moved a lot towards Texas's opponent in both cases. So you know the money was coming in heavy against Texas. However, Texas ended up beating not only the closing line, but also the opening line in both games. That means that the books won a shit ton of money because the vast majority was obviously coming in against Texas but Texas covered against every single one of those bets.

That's all true, but the point I'm making is that we constantly hear people say things like, "Boy, Vegas sure got that one wrong!"  Not really.  Vegas is not in the prediction business, even with the opening line.  After that, the line moves based on money coming in on one side to make the other side more attractive.  Books don't like to be overextended on one side or the other, even if they think it's right.  They're moving the line to mitigate their risk exposure.  The perfect scenario for them is massive volume and evenly split at every line throughout the week.

Edited by TexArcher
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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 48970

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4 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

I’d take Ole Miss.   Miami is utter dog shit, which means Bama won its only real game so far by 2 points against a Florida team with questionable QB play.   Ole Miss has one of the best offenses in the country and will score on Bama.  I’d still expect Bama to win, but in a competitive track meet.

I would expect us to cover against TCU, but Tech is awful and in recent years TCU usually struggles with SMU and then gets up to play us.  So, we will see.  It’s probably not as cut and dried as this week’s games would suggest.

Ole Miss was off this week  -- might be a really good game with Joey Freshwater having an extra week to prepare for Bama.  

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dcar00

dcar00 14035

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1 hour ago, ATLLonghorn said:

I hate this game every year. It's Gary Patterson's Superbowl and it will always be more important to them than us. I also have this feeling the last time we play them before we move to the SEC is the last time we're going to play them in the regular season because I don't see an upside in scheduling them anymore. We still might just that much better than them, but it's not a game I take lightly. I hate those fuckers.

I think we hated them mainly because we knew for the last decade the better coach wasn't on our sideline.  we'll see if that changes.

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George Clooney

George Clooney 378

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4 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

I’d take Ole Miss.   Miami is utter dog shit, which means Bama won its only real game so far by 2 points against a Florida team with questionable QB play.   Ole Miss has one of the best offenses in the country and will score on Bama.  I’d still expect Bama to win, but in a competitive track meet.

I would expect us to cover against TCU, but Tech is awful and in recent years TCU usually struggles with SMU and then gets up to play us.  So, we will see.  It’s probably not as cut and dried as this week’s games would suggest.

I'd also take Ole Miss to cover, but Emory Jones is a good college QB. He doesn't have an NFL arm, but his skillset fits perfectly in Mullen's offense. Stopping UF on the ground is incredibly tough, and UGA might be the only team who can do so this year.

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