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Texas opens as a 6 point favorite @TCU

TexasMan

By TexasMan
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ztejas

ztejas 43,263

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Posted

I just can't see this TCU team hanging with us. I really, really, really hope I'm right about this but the gulf in quality between these two teams seems enormous to me. 

This seems like a classic case of bettors buying way too much into past results. There is no reason to believe TCU is better than Tech. I also find it highly unlikely SMU is better than Texas. But bettors are going to get nervous over the road game at arky and Strong and Herman's results against much better TCU teams. 

Texas should roll by 2 scores at least. If I was putting money down I'd hammer anything Texas -8 or less. -4 or whatever seems insulting. TCU isn't good. Use your own eyes.

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ATLLonghorn

ATLLonghorn 841

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

I’d take Ole Miss.   Miami is utter dog shit, which means Bama won its only real game so far by 2 points against a Florida team with questionable QB play.   Ole Miss has one of the best offenses in the country and will score on Bama.  I’d still expect Bama to win, but in a competitive track meet.

I'm not saying Ole Miss won't cover and you're right about a track meet, but dinging Alabama for only beating Florida by two points on the road when Florida is MILES AND MILES better than the best teams Ole Miss has played while Ole Miss hasn't played a road game yet is just fucking wild.

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Pig Bellmont

Pig Bellmont 8,691

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12 minutes ago, HSFC said:

Friend in my circle put $2k on TCU+4.5. Asked him why he didn’t wait and he said he doesn’t need to.

Either your friend is rich enough to throw away that kind of money or he’s about to lose his mortgage. 
 

Fuck TCU - they will try to replicate Ark, but they’ve been giving up a ton of rushing yards. Plus Casey won’t get rattled. Fat Gary can cry into his ice cream after the game 

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HSFC

HSFC 5

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Either your friend is rich enough to throw away that kind of money or he’s about to lose his mortgage. 
 

Fuck TCU - they will try to replicate Ark, but they’ve been giving up a ton of rushing yards. Plus Casey won’t get rattled. Fat Gary can cry into his ice cream after the game 

He thinks Duggan will run and throw for 350+ and he also thinks the TCU defense is better than Rice and Tech.

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CurlyDumps

CurlyDumps 4,439

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Posted
23 hours ago, Red Five said:

Evidently TCU -1 was the line 48 hours ago. It shifted seven points after yesterday's games. 

After the Tech game and before the lines came out I was thinking, "Vegas must be having fun trying to figure out this team."

Not only the huge swing in performance vs. the spread from Arkansas through Tech, but the last few years, too. Hell, the entire last decade. Such a fucking mystery from week to week.  

Here's to hoping Sark continues being a covering machine until Vegas catches up.

 

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sidis

sidis 9,743

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Hating UGA is a little odd to me. Hating them more than Arky is fucking weird. 

I my betting league I suspect we will get and take the Frogs at +6. It’s the smart move. My gut tells me we win by 14-20 points. 

narrator: he's a jorts-wearing florida fan.

Edited by sidis
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Zeus

Zeus 5,949

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Hating UGA is a little odd to me. Hating them more than Arky is fucking weird. 

I my betting league I suspect we will get and take the Frogs at +6. It’s the smart move. My gut tells me we win by 14-20 points. 

Florida fan

Also have you ever been in or around Georgia?

 

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Slacks

Slacks 6,791

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, Assman said:

I'm in on Texas -4 and the under. 

 

21 hours ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Excuse me - its looks like you typed the 'under' .  Auto-correct?

 

16 hours ago, ztejas said:

I just can't see this TCU team hanging with us. I really, really, really hope I'm right about this but the gulf in quality between these two teams seems enormous to me. 

This seems like a classic case of bettors buying way too much into past results. There is no reason to believe TCU is better than Tech. I also find it highly unlikely SMU is better than Texas. But bettors are going to get nervous over the road game at arky and Strong and Herman's results against much better TCU teams. 

Texas should roll by 2 scores at least. If I was putting money down I'd hammer anything Texas -8 or less. -4 or whatever seems insulting. TCU isn't good. Use your own eyes.

 

11 hours ago, Longboard Horn said:

Easy money. Also, take the over. If we play like we did against Tech we should hang all 66.5 points on the frogs. 

 

11 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

And give up 30-40 pts. 

 

9 hours ago, TornACL said:

I can't believe there are still people on here dumb enough to hang the "THIS IS FREE MONEY!!" curse on their own team. 

It's supposed to rain friday and saturday, so some of you might want to check yourselves on the automagic free money over...  I'd hang around until the weather forecast is more certain...

TCU can put up 35 points...  I don't know if TCU can slow us down or not... I think not, but i'm just another friendly.  The over looks safe if the weather is close to decent.

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cochamps

cochamps 1,876

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, HSFC said:

He thinks Duggan will run and throw for 350+ and he also thinks the TCU defense is better than Rice and Tech.

I’ll take the under on 350 yards from Max fucking Dugan.

Tom Herman is not walking through that door.

 

Edited by cochamps
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Fud

Fud 9,545

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Lowcountry Hog said:

Isn’t the play Michigan -1 this week?  I think Wisconsin is 5-8 in their last 13 v P5.  And Graham Mertz, in his last 7 P5 games, has tossed 3 TDs, 11 INTs and the badgers are 2-5.  

That seems like a begging the public to take a side line

Are your two OL playing this week? 

Edited by Fud
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TornACL

TornACL 7,675

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Lowcountry Hog said:

Isn’t the play Michigan -1 this week?  I think Wisconsin is 5-8 in their last 13 v P5.  And Graham Mertz, in his last 7 P5 games, has tossed 3 TDs, 11 INTs and the badgers are 2-5.  

Ah yes, staking your bankroll to Jim Harbaugh. Always a shrewd move. 

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hiphopfroggyII

hiphopfroggyII 144

Posted
Posted
On 9/27/2021 at 12:42 AM, ztejas said:

I just can't see this TCU team hanging with us. I really, really, really hope I'm right about this but the gulf in quality between these two teams seems enormous to me. 

 

Perhaps you would be interested in doing a position by position breakdown to support your claim. You may be surprised by what you find.

 

 

image.png.f2d2731dbec8cd08a835be09a74b4f68.png

 

 

 

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dcar00

dcar00 14,035

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 9/28/2021 at 8:33 AM, TexArcher said:

Why?  They gave up 42 to SMU and 32 to Cal.  Their defense looks like shit.

 

if we can run the ball at all we win by 20.

edit: this 20 is taking into account the 14 points the refs will gift TCU or take from us.

Edited by dcar00
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El Squared

El Squared 1,793

Posted
Posted
On 9/26/2021 at 5:21 PM, ATLLonghorn said:

I hate this game every year. It's Gary Patterson's Superbowl and it will always be more important to them than us. I also have this feeling the last time we play them before we move to the SEC is the last time we're going to play them in the regular season because I don't see an upside in scheduling them anymore. We still might just that much better than them, but it's not a game I take lightly. I hate those fuckers.

I don't know how often you have to get your nuts kicked in before you realize its gonna hurt but I would hope that this team and coach are serious about frog. 

Its not just about beating sweaty fatterson, but his stable of zebras too.

Just win baby. 

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brojangles2

brojangles2 781

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TexasMan said:

Phil Steele says TCU may have been looking ahead to this one last week. They cover but we win. 

I think he's been wrong about us ATS all year so far so 🤞🏽

I have never much believed in the "looking ahead" bullshit. You get punched in the mouth by anybody, you wake the fuck up and respond. Looking ahead is an excuse for pussies. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14,035

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2 minutes ago, brojangles2 said:

I have never much believed in the "looking ahead" bullshit. You get punched in the mouth by anybody, you wake the fuck up and respond. Looking ahead is an excuse for pussies. 

yes, but do you believe in the "didn't want to be there"...Jawja told me its a real thing.

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