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China’s population could halve within the next 45 years, new study warns

 

  • Researchers say previous estimates may have severely underestimated the pace of demographic decline
  • Census data says the birth rate was 1.3 children for each woman last year – well below the level needed to stop the population from falling
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/09/03/chinas-population-to-drop-by-half-immigration-helps-us-labor-force/?sh=1e07afaa3d65

 

  Quote

Table 1: Projections for Top 10 Countries by Population

Country 2017 2100 Percentage Change
China 1,413 million 732 million -48%
India 1,381 million 1,093 million -21%
United States 325 million 336 million 3%
Indonesia 258 million 229 million -11%
Pakistan 214 million 248 million -16%
Brazil 212 million 165 million -22%
Nigeria 206 million 791 million 284%
Bangladesh 157 million 81 million -48%
Russia 146 million 106 million -27%
Japan 128 million 60 million -53%
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I grew up in a world where everyone was concerned about overpopulation.  It's so weird seeing that it is accepted wisdom now that we are headed the other direction in the developed world.  We're still going up because of third world trajectory, but it is only a matter of time until those countries start on this trajectory too.  It's wild to think about this future.  Will finding housing in China be an absolute joke in 2100?  Which of these many empty apartments do you want? Will the transition stage be marked by abandoned buildings everywhere?  Will the olds everywhere starve as there aren't enough yoots to fund pensions?

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Posted

Yeah, these trends are fascinating.  As you said, the trend is already apparent in most developed nations.  But there are are big "throttling down" trends in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Central/East Asia as well.  I think we may see "peak people" by the end of my lifetime, certainly within my children's lifetime.  

There's another interesting, and possibly real dangerous, trend going on the United States right now.  Obviously, white birth rates are declining, and hispanic birth rates are no longer growing as fast as they used to.  And enrollment is colleges is therefore projected to decline in the very near future.  Colleges went from 60/40 male just 30 years ago to 60/40 female now and the gap is widening.  Every 4 years, 1.3 million more women enter college than men.  Men often partner/breed with women who are less educated than they are, but it's very rare to see the opposite (women marrying down in education terms since we're not terribly concerned with hearty breeding stock anymore as a species).  And if you acknowledge the strong correlation between education and earning potential, that means we're gonna have a lot more college educated women having their choice of partners, and a lot more undereducated men sitting at home with few prospects at getting rich or getting laid.  A similar trend is taking place in China and in several other industrialized nations.  That's a dangerous cocktail long-term because lonely men who can't afford hot ass tend to believe crazy shit and act out on it.   There's an Ivy League demographer that gamed this all out, it's fascinating.  

Posted

China did it to themselves.  One child policy driven by a patriarchal preference for male children to carry on family traditions and to care for their elderly artificially depressed birth rates for years and limited the amount of females required maintain their population.  While it’s good they repealed the policy, if they were smart they’d be offering mass incentives for women to act as surrogates for all of these single men that have almost no chance of having children, or offering visas and incentives/housing to any women refugees around the world to move to China; however with their traditional values and xenophobia it’s not something their society can just get over in a short period of time…so in summation, they’re fucked.

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Posted (edited)

If you gave me 20 guesses, I would have missed this. 

The nation that has by far (4.6%, second place is way back at 3.7%) the fastest population rate increase?

Syria.  

I picture al-Assad standing on top of his Presidential Palace like Slater at the Moontower, "Imagine how people out there are fuckin' right now?  Just going at it!"  

Edited by Lobo
Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 2:05 PM, Lobo said:

 Men often partner/breed with women who are less educated than they are, but it's very rare to see the opposite (women marrying down in education terms since we're not terribly concerned with hearty breeding stock anymore as a species).  And if you acknowledge the strong correlation between education and earning potential, that means we're gonna have a lot more college educated women having their choice of partners, and a lot more undereducated men sitting at home with few prospects at getting rich or getting laid.

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When have women not have had their choice of partners?  I imagine a 6'2" farmboy fares better in the grouping department than a 5'7" Econ PHD whos not a millionaire

Posted

Yeah, they usually have.  They're still in the same boat, relatively speaking.  His larger concern was all the dudes who can't get good jobs or hot dates, that recipe has been seen hundreds of times throughout history.  It rarely has a happy ending.  Unless you legalize happy endings. 

Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 2:26 PM, Lobo said:

Yeah, they usually have.  They're still in the same boat, relatively speaking.  His larger concern was all the dudes who can't get good jobs or hot dates, that recipe has been seen hundreds of times throughout history.  It rarely has a happy ending.  Unless you legalize happy endings. 

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Women have a stronger imperative to reproduce.  Women have their choice of partner with whom to reproduce.  Men get the short end of the stick.  These 3 things are a steady constant through time and I dont think the relative education or earning power of men will change that dynamics much. 

What will change the overall repro rate then I think is more cultural in terms of women/society consciously prioritizing their careers; maybe having children too late; choosing smaller families; eschewing children altogether; etc.

I gamed this while banging a prostitute at a Holiday Inn Express last night

Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 2:05 PM, Lobo said:
Yeah, these trends are fascinating.  As you said, the trend is already apparent in most developed nations.  But there are are big "throttling down" trends in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Central/East Asia as well.  I think we may see "peak people" by the end of my lifetime, certainly within my children's lifetime.  
There's another interesting, and possibly real dangerous, trend going on the United States right now.  Obviously, white birth rates are declining, and hispanic birth rates are no longer growing as fast as they used to.  And enrollment is colleges is therefore projected to decline in the very near future.  Colleges went from 60/40 male just 30 years ago to 60/40 female now and the gap is widening.  Every 4 years, 1.3 million more women enter college than men.  Men often partner/breed with women who are less educated than they are, but it's very rare to see the opposite (women marrying down in education terms since we're not terribly concerned with hearty breeding stock anymore as a species).  And if you acknowledge the strong correlation between education and earning potential, that means we're gonna have a lot more college educated women having their choice of partners, and a lot more undereducated men sitting at home with few prospects at getting rich or getting laid.  A similar trend is taking place in China and in several other industrialized nations.  That's a dangerous cocktail long-term because lonely men who can't afford hot ass tend to believe crazy shit and act out on it.   There's an Ivy League demographer that gamed this all out, it's fascinating.  

Sounds like a good way for corporate America to keep costs down. Pay chicks 76 cents on the dollar.
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Posted

It's gonna be really bad for China in the next 20-30 years when all the people who were born prior to the one-child policy start retiring.  Especially as their average age of retirement is 54 (they have been talking of raising it for years).  Impossible to fund all those people with a much smaller working cohort.  Who knew that top down, unilateral policy making might have unintended consequences?

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Posted

it looks like the women "marrying down" thing is starting to happen now.  it intrigued me so i googled and here's an article on those trends.

 

https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-gender-gap-in-marriages-between-college-educated-partners

 

  Quote

Among men overall and in each age category, the percentage with bachelor’s degrees married to a spouse with less education declined steadily and dramatically. For example, as Figure 1 below shows, for those ages 33 to 42, that percentage declined from 54% to 17%, which is more than triple. Married females with such degrees, however, mostly went in the opposite direction, especially in the last three decades, although less dramatically so. Particularly, as older women pass from the scene—barring unexpected changes—the percentages of women with four-year college degrees married to men without them will likely continue to increase. For males, this percentage will likely continue to decrease. 

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I had to stare at this chart for a while to really grasp what its saying, but i think that information in hidden in the purple bars on the right

 

ayersfigure1-w640.png

Posted

This is a reason why immigration is so encouraged in developed countries like the EU and here. In debt based economies you cannot have deflation and aging/shrinking populations are deflationary. 

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Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 2:42 PM, gurt said:

It's gonna be really bad for China in the next 20-30 years when all the people who were born prior to the one-child policy start retiring.  Especially as their average age of retirement is 54 (they have been talking of raising it for years).  Impossible to fund all those people with a much smaller working cohort.  Who knew that top down, unilateral policy making might have unintended consequences?

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Maybe that's why they created Covid?  Pretty quick solve.

Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 3:14 PM, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

it looks like the women "marrying down" thing is starting to happen now.  it intrigued me so i googled and here's an article on those trends.

 

https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-gender-gap-in-marriages-between-college-educated-partners

 

 

I had to stare at this chart for a while to really grasp what its saying, but i think that information in hidden in the purple bars on the right

 

ayersfigure1-w640.png

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This really doesnt say anything about preferences - of marrying up or down.  It just expresses the fact that more women are getting college degrees.

Left half:  As more women get degrees, the chance of a man marrying a woman without one goes down over time.

Right half:  The men are the control population.  Hence the numbers do not significantly change over time.

Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 3:14 PM, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

it looks like the women "marrying down" thing is starting to happen now.  it intrigued me so i googled and here's an article on those trends.

 

https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-gender-gap-in-marriages-between-college-educated-partners

 

 

I had to stare at this chart for a while to really grasp what its saying, but i think that information in hidden in the purple bars on the right

 

ayersfigure1-w640.png

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You really see that more educated women are willing to marry less educated men in the childbearing years. I believe this is more pronounced in rural areas, especially female school teachers marrying a less educated successful property owner, or business owner. You ask any business owner, in my area, what their wives do, and the answer is usually "a school teacher". School teachers seem to move around less, and want to put down roots, this wasn't really the case when I was in school decades ago. Their income is not the primary income on which they live, it is their less educated spouse that owns an electrical contracting company that is knocking down $250k per year. In the 70's and 80's, it was more of educator/coach would  marry another educator, and they would move from place to place as the coaching gigs and money got better.

CHIEF

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Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 2:05 PM, Lobo said:

And if you acknowledge the strong correlation between education and earning potential, that means we're gonna have a lot more college educated women having their choice of partners, and a lot more undereducated men sitting at home with few prospects at getting rich or getting laid.  A similar trend is taking place in China and in several other industrialized nations.  That's a dangerous cocktail long-term because lonely men who can't afford hot ass tend to believe crazy shit and act out on it.   There's an Ivy League demographer that gamed this all out, it's fascinating. 

Expand  

 

  On 10/1/2021 at 2:26 PM, Lobo said:

Yeah, they usually have.  They're still in the same boat, relatively speaking.  His larger concern was all the dudes who can't get good jobs or hot dates, that recipe has been seen hundreds of times throughout history.  It rarely has a happy ending.  Unless you legalize happy endings. 

Expand  

This is its own fascinating subject, and probably deserves its own thread.  As a parent of college-aged kids (and we're dear friends with a university president, and have lots of candid, beer-fueled conversations about such things), I'd call this issue a crisis.

I've posited before on this board that our biggest looming question, as tech and AI advances, is "what are we going to do with our morons?"  Maybe a corollary -- and perhaps overlapping -- question is "what are we going to do with our uneducated men?"

Lack of balance is a destabilizer.  Idle men, who aren't great at attracting mates, are a destabilizer.  This is a looming challenge, and maybe even a looming breaking point for many societies.  We need to start dealing with it (and it includes multiple issues -- such as improving our education system so that it doesn't just favor girls, who sit still with their bright and shiny faces, and perhaps also gear some of it to boys, who often learn more kinesthetically).  Lots of stuff to tease out here.

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Posted (edited)
  On 10/1/2021 at 2:26 PM, Lobo said:

Yeah, they usually have.  They're still in the same boat, relatively speaking.  His larger concern was all the dudes who can't get good jobs or hot dates, that recipe has been seen hundreds of times throughout history.  It rarely has a happy ending.  Unless you legalize happy endings. 

Expand  

 

  On 10/1/2021 at 4:22 PM, Brisketexan said:

 

This is its own fascinating subject, and probably deserves its own thread.  As a parent of college-aged kids (and we're dear friends with a university president, and have lots of candid, beer-fueled conversations about such things), I'd call this issue a crisis.

I've posited before on this board that our biggest looming question, as tech and AI advances, is "what are we going to do with our morons?"  Maybe a corollary -- and perhaps overlapping -- question is "what are we going to do with our uneducated men?"

Lack of balance is a destabilizer.  Idle men, who aren't great at attracting mates, are a destabilizer.  This is a looming challenge, and maybe even a looming breaking point for many societies.  We need to start dealing with it (and it includes multiple issues -- such as improving our education system so that it doesn't just favor girls, who sit still with their bright and shiny faces, and perhaps also gear some of it to boys, who often learn more kinesthetically).  Lots of stuff to tease out here.

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One concern I have is that these trends will lead females to forego marriage and instead form either many short term relationships (serial monogamy) or cohabit instead. In these situations they can either choose not to have children, which furthers the issue of population decline, or have children, who would then be more likely to have negative outcomes due to (among other, often interrelated, factors) their mom's unstable living arrangements and partnerships. Regardless of their choice, it's not a positive outlook. The research is pretty clear that cohabiting relationships, and serial monogamy more broadly, is associated with numerous negative outcomes, including lower academic achievement and income (note the cycle of poverty emerging here), mental health problems, greater risk of divorce/dissolution, etc. That's just for cohabiting relationships- single parenthood is obviously worse. This is what has been happening (among other things, obviously) in African American families. Women aren't able to find suitable marriage partners, so they don't marry, but they often still end up having children and the children are raised in less than ideal situations. 

I read a WSJ article about the male college enrollment problem recently. I thought it was pretty informative and an interesting look behind the curtain:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/college-university-fall-higher-education-men-women-enrollment-admissions-back-to-school-11630948233?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwAR0vJescBEP9Y-WiEV9kBV4L5fWevH6FIDRBghABQ4oeB8PxZrtwV8WjLyg

  Reveal hidden contents

I thought this was an interesting diagnosis of the problem, though I admittedly haven't researched much on this topic:

"Social science researchers cite distractions and obstacles to education that weigh more on boys and young men, including videogames, pornography, increased fatherlessness and cases of overdiagnosis of boyhood restlessness and related medications.

Men in interviews around the U.S. said they quit school or didn’t enroll because they didn’t see enough value in a college degree for all the effort and expense required to earn one. Many said they wanted to make money after high school."

Edited by KYHorn
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Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 4:22 PM, Brisketexan said:

I've posited before on this board that our biggest looming question, as tech and AI advances, is "what are we going to do with our morons?"  Maybe a corollary -- and perhaps overlapping -- question is "what are we going to do with our uneducated men?"

Expand  

 

giphy.gif

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Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 4:22 PM, Brisketexan said:

 

This is its own fascinating subject, and probably deserves its own thread.  As a parent of college-aged kids (and we're dear friends with a university president, and have lots of candid, beer-fueled conversations about such things), I'd call this issue a crisis.

I've posited before on this board that our biggest looming question, as tech and AI advances, is "what are we going to do with our morons?"  Maybe a corollary -- and perhaps overlapping -- question is "what are we going to do with our uneducated men?"

Lack of balance is a destabilizer.  Idle men, who aren't great at attracting mates, are a destabilizer.  This is a looming challenge, and maybe even a looming breaking point for many societies.  We need to start dealing with it (and it includes multiple issues -- such as improving our education system so that it doesn't just favor girls, who sit still with their bright and shiny faces, and perhaps also gear some of it to boys, who often learn more kinesthetically).  Lots of stuff to tease out here.

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What if the AI beings are morons?

Posted (edited)
  On 10/1/2021 at 5:02 PM, KYHorn said:

 

One concern I have is that these trends will lead females to forego marriage and instead form either many short term relationships (serial monogamy) or cohabit instead. In these situations they can either choose not to have children, which furthers the issue of population decline, or have children, who would then be more likely to have negative outcomes due to (among other, often interrelated, factors) their mom's unstable living arrangements and partnerships. Regardless of their choice, it's not a positive outlook. The research is pretty clear that cohabiting relationships, and serial monogamy more broadly, is associated with numerous negative outcomes, including lower academic achievement and income (note the cycle of poverty emerging here), mental health problems, greater risk of divorce/dissolution, etc. That's just for cohabiting relationships- single parenthood is obviously worse. This is what has been happening (among other things, obviously) in African American families. Women aren't able to find suitable marriage partners, so they don't marry, but they often still end up having children and the children are raised in less than ideal situations. 

I read a WSJ article about the male college enrollment problem recently. I thought it was pretty informative and an interesting look behind the curtain:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/college-university-fall-higher-education-men-women-enrollment-admissions-back-to-school-11630948233?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwAR0vJescBEP9Y-WiEV9kBV4L5fWevH6FIDRBghABQ4oeB8PxZrtwV8WjLyg

  Reveal hidden contents

I thought this was an interesting diagnosis of the problem, though I admittedly haven't researched much on this topic:

"Social science researchers cite distractions and obstacles to education that weigh more on boys and young men, including videogames, pornography, increased fatherlessness and cases of overdiagnosis of boyhood restlessness and related medications.

Men in interviews around the U.S. said they quit school or didn’t enroll because they didn’t see enough value in a college degree for all the effort and expense required to earn one. Many said they wanted to make money after high school."

Expand  

If you look at Trade Schools, TSTC for example:

https://www.collegetuitioncompare.com/edu/487320/texas-state-technical-college/enrollment/

The student body is overwhelmingly male. Outside of legal, accounting, and STEM degrees, what degrees are available that males would want to work in, that will provide a greater income than what they can get at a trade school in 12-18 months? What gender makes up the bulk of social work, nursing, and education degrees?

One of my best friends dropped out of a four year university, and went to TSTC to get an associates in automation engineering. He has automated every Chemlime plant over the last 30 years. He has been making over $200k for at least 25 years, and who knows how much now. His wife has a Masters in Medical Records and has always made about half as much as he has.

The number one thing all women want is financial security, that trumps education. You show me someone that is successful, educated or not, and an educated women will find something that interests them. Be it grit and determination, ability to think outside the box, money management. If he is decent looking, she will overlook his lack of a four year degree. 

This kinda went off on a tangent, but yeah, China is fucked.

CHIEF

Edited by CHIEF
Fuck China
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Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 4:22 PM, Brisketexan said:

 

This is its own fascinating subject, and probably deserves its own thread.

I've posited before on this board that our biggest looming question, as tech and AI advances, is "what are we going to do with our morons?" 

men, who aren't great at attracting mates, are a destabilizer. 

Expand  

and yet, you managed to find your way to Surly   AND procreate...

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Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 2:34 PM, 52-80 said:

Women have a stronger imperative to reproduce.  Women have their choice of partner with whom to reproduce.  Men get the short end of the stick.  These 3 things are a steady constant through time and I dont think the relative education or earning power of men will change that dynamics much. 

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on you maybe

Bh0jYFRIIAAZ7Xj?format=jpg&name=small

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Posted

Disunited Nations by Zeihan covers this issue with China and other nations as well.  It's an interesting view of what might happen in the world in the not too distant future.

Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 5:10 PM, Incredulity said:

What would you call the last 18 months?  a game of pick up sticks?

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Or a missed opportunity?  The Rona didn't target the right folks. Be better next time Wuhan Bats and or Institute of Virology

And yes I realize this is fucking cold-blooded to say and I'm not sure I really believe it but nature does sometimes have a way of....working things out.  

Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 6:24 PM, Brisketexan said:

What I lack in looks and brains I make up for in irresistible charm.  True fact.  I've been coasting on the strength of that for years now.

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Hold on as best you can.  With age often comes a sharp decline in charm.  There are clouds to yell at and what not.

Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 4:22 PM, Brisketexan said:

 

This is its own fascinating subject, and probably deserves its own thread.  As a parent of college-aged kids (and we're dear friends with a university president, and have lots of candid, beer-fueled conversations about such things), I'd call this issue a crisis.

I've posited before on this board that our biggest looming question, as tech and AI advances, is "what are we going to do with our morons?"  Maybe a corollary -- and perhaps overlapping -- question is "what are we going to do with our uneducated men?"

Lack of balance is a destabilizer.  Idle men, who aren't great at attracting mates, are a destabilizer.  This is a looming challenge, and maybe even a looming breaking point for many societies.  We need to start dealing with it (and it includes multiple issues -- such as improving our education system so that it doesn't just favor girls, who sit still with their bright and shiny faces, and perhaps also gear some of it to boys, who often learn more kinesthetically).  Lots of stuff to tease out here.

Expand  

AI sexbots to satisfy the blooming population of undereducated incels.  Next problem.

Posted

I don't know how to embed this:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2021/09/25/college-gender-cap-women-outnumber-men-60-40.cnn

So yeah, women getting to select from many potential partners is nothing new.  But his research (go to his written works, the interview is too short for him to really explain the extrapolated maths) suggests it's gonna be way different this time around.  We've gone from a roughly even split in college educated men versus women and we're heading for 2 female graduates for every 1 male graduate by the time my youngest is done with college.  

I think more men should pursue trade schools or professional certifications of some kind.  But again, unless you're the owner and not one of the 20 employees...your income will not be that alluring, nor will you be running in those social circles where attractive, educated women tend to gravitate.  We'll still be a 51/49 nation female:male, but there will huge swaths of educated women who will just never run into non-college men in the dating pool.  Maybe some app will solve for that, but by the third drunken hookup, education and job are gonna come up.  They always do, even after an orgy.  I don't quite have the alarmist view this NYU guy does that they're all gonna be radicalized.  

As stated above, this also will have massive, tectonic effects on procreation.  More and more women will wait longer and longer to have children with more career demands.  Meaning fewer children, that's just biology.  The fastest growing segment of those women taking over college campuses, are Hispanic/Latina.  Meaning white women's birth rates will have an even more accelerated decline and Hispanic female birth rates will probably curve down to where white's are now. 

So yeah, AI sex bots and we're gonna have to legalize prostitution which is gonna piss off a bunch of Texans but it'll also get their annoying sons outta the house for a few hours.  

Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 7:43 PM, TKthunder2 said:

Not to go boudin or CR here but has the unbalanced female/male ratio in higher ed been brought up as a title IX issue?

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Maybe, but what’s funny is that Baylor article up thread says the opposite is the case now as we are trying to fix.  Thumb is on the scale for guys right now. 7% higher admission rate to help balance things out.  

Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 2:42 PM, gurt said:

It's gonna be really bad for China in the next 20-30 years when all the people who were born prior to the one-child policy start retiring.  Especially as their average age of retirement is 54 (they have been talking of raising it for years).  Impossible to fund all those people with a much smaller working cohort.  Who knew that top down, unilateral policy making might have unintended consequences?

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there's still a shit ton of people doing not particularly productive things in china so productivity increases could well outweigh decline in the working population. 

Posted

Good question on the Title IX thing.

I didn't go an Ivy League school or anything, but I have a working understanding of irony.  A chunk of our country is shouting out that the White Male is being unfairly discriminated against, and yet we have universities all around the country tilting admissions requirements to be more favorable for that same demographic to "balance the scales" (as stated above).  Once this practice becomes more commonplace and more aggressive, then we'll have a new wave of Title IX issues on our hands.  And around and around we go, with the only constant being declining birth rates in the very groups already worried about their grip on the majority.  

All I really know is I'm on campus right now and if you're one of the 40% of the student population who identifies as male.....you got it made in the shade.  Our female population has never been more diverse, more beautiful, more intelligent, more confident, more lightly dressed.  For you young men who don't end up disgruntled, uneducated, incels---you are about to enter a golden age.  Nothing but 4.0GPAs walking around in tennis skirts.  

Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 8:47 PM, Lobo said:

All I really know is I'm on campus right now and if you're one of the 40% of the student population who identifies as male.....you got it made in the shade.  Our female population has never been more diverse, more beautiful, more intelligent, more confident, more lightly dressed.  For you young men who don't end up disgruntled, uneducated, incels---you are about to enter a golden age.  Nothing but 4.0GPAs walking around in tennis skirts.  

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And yes, I have shared this observation with my son.  He is entering school with a decided advantage in the romantic pursuits department.

Posted

I heard Niamey just got a Shake Shack, so that explains the 50x growth trajectory.  What the fuck?  That list can't be right.  I know those cities are still exploding in growth rates, but c'mon.  

Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 2:05 PM, Lobo said:

And if you acknowledge the strong correlation between education and earning potential, that means we're gonna have a lot more college educated women having their choice of partners

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I see it working in the opposite direction. If women make up more of the highly educated and high incomes, most of them will not have their choice. Most women do not want a husband that makes less than them. There are exceptions but it's that, an exception.  There's a reason the stereotype exists that women want 6 foot tall, a few years older and earning more. Going for a guy earning half of her income is settling. Really settling.

Colleges are starting to give preferential treatment to young men in an attempt to even out the numbers. The guys still have to qualify but women have to have higher scores for admission.

Posted

I agree.  And I think that's where you get this growing segment of tens of millions of dudes with no degree, a dead-end job, and no prospects for hot, intelligent ass (which is kinda my jam).  That's the NYU guy's real concern.  Women won't marry down.  They'll either marry parallel or up, or become serial daters which will further decline our birthrates.  

I've noticed just in admissions and scholarships at UT, we've been seeing a marked shift towards more females.  But I never really extrapolated out what that means for society in the long term.  The gap will be measured in the tens of millions within my children's lifetime.  That's an insane imbalance.  And if the alternative for the growing segment of highly educated women is not enough adequate male partners of equal/greater stature, I guess they have to look at compromising/settling.  But for millions of women, they'd rather go childless than have to make introductions to their parents like, "Mom, Dad.  This is Doug.  He's trying to get his van repair business off the ground, I guess I love him, and we're pregnant."  

Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 9:33 PM, Surly Bevo said:

So it seems we have a Clevon problem.

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I think it's actually a great way to slow down the Clevon problem we were headed for earlier.  Of all the prospective female mating partners Clevon had to choose from, more and more are deciding that college, a career, and a smaller family down the line are more in line with that they want out of life.  Bad news is there's gonna more Clevons than we thought, but he'll have a harder time making little Clevons when Tammy Lynn leaves for the big school in the fancy city.  Good news though is those girls see there's another life for them then staying back in town to make babies and care for Ma and Pa.  I think for idiocracy procreation purposes, this is a net good thing.  However, lotta blue-balled Clevons hanging back in their hometown with bubbling rage.  

The Empowered Stupidity that has taken the reigns the last few years, it's just a teaser of what's to come down the road.  These guys are idiots, violent, and  disgruntled at make-believe enemies.  But at least their rage was tempered by being happily married and getting some ass on the regular.  You take that last element away, and there's a brewing shitstorm that makes all of our other demographic issues look like fucking jokes.  

Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 9:41 PM, Lobo said:

The Empowered Stupidity that has taken the reigns the last few years, it's just a teaser of what's to come down the road.  These guys are idiots, violent, and  disgruntled at make-believe enemies.  But at least their rage was tempered by being happily married and getting some ass on the regular.  You take that last element away, and there's a brewing shitstorm that makes all of our other demographic issues look like fucking jokes.  

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It's the Arab world that brews terrorism.  Young men with no prospects, no job and steady income, sexually repressed and lacking AC will follow anybody into anything.  At least we got AC.....so that's nice.  

Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 8:47 PM, Lobo said:

Good question on the Title IX thing.

I didn't go an Ivy League school or anything, but I have a working understanding of irony.  A chunk of our country is shouting out that the White Male is being unfairly discriminated against, and yet we have universities all around the country tilting admissions requirements to be more favorable for that same demographic to "balance the scales" (as stated above).  Once this practice becomes more commonplace and more aggressive, then we'll have a new wave of Title IX issues on our hands.  And around and around we go, with the only constant being declining birth rates in the very groups already worried about their grip on the majority.  

All I really know is I'm on campus right now and if you're one of the 40% of the student population who identifies as male.....you got it made in the shade.  Our female population has never been more diverse, more beautiful, more intelligent, more confident, more lightly dressed.  For you young men who don't end up disgruntled, uneducated, incels---you are about to enter a golden age.  Nothing but 4.0GPAs walking around in tennis skirts.  

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What's UT's continuing education policy?

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Posted

"And in education news today, the University of Texas at Austin announced a record 3,000 adult men have enrolled in a continuing education course entitled, 'Surly Media and Gender Studies.'  It will meet on campus every day from 4-6pm.  KXAN obtained a copy of the syllabus which reads only, 'Bring beer and post pics when you can.'  And a 'Professor Lobo' told us he plans to hold classes outside, perhaps including long walks through the campus, particularly in the Autumn and Spring for 'research purposes.'  The course seeks to address the gender imbalance on college campuses by infusing the landscape with thousands of middle-aged men for rigorous coursework and community engagement, says Lobo.  Stay tuned to KXAN.com for as the story develops."  

Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 9:44 PM, Surly Bevo said:

It's the Arab world that brews terrorism.  Young men with no prospects, no job and steady income, sexually repressed and lacking AC will follow anybody into anything.  At least we got AC.....so that's nice.  

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Posted
  On 10/1/2021 at 9:44 PM, Surly Bevo said:

It's the Arab world that brews terrorism.  Young men with no prospects, no job and steady income, sexually repressed and lacking AC will follow anybody into anything.  At least we got AC.....so that's nice.  

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So what you’re saying is that if the ac goes out, we’re fucked

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