population decline

[crash_davis 23113]

1 minute ago, tigol said:

Whoh. As a female I completely disagree. I’ve made more money than my husband for years and couldn’t be happier with the situation.

PM sent!!!

[Celery Man 20949]

6 minutes ago, tigol said:

Whoh. As a female I completely disagree. I’ve made more money than my husband for years and couldn’t be happier with the situation.

[ztejas 43448]

4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

TLDR; Russia was always heading for a demographic crisis.  Putin's folly has made it much worse.  And on top of that, many of the people Russia lost (mostly via fleeing the country) were among the "best and brightest."  Russia is now less-populated, poorer, and dumber.

China is facing a similar demographic crisis.

Bad demography leads to shitty economies, discord, and instability.  Having those two powers facing those crunches in the next decade or so means we're entering (shit, we're already well into it) a dangerous period of history.

I'd say the only period over the past 100+ years that wasn't particularly "dangerous" was post Cold War and pre China rise to power - where you only had one true superpower. 

So... 15-20 years of relative stability? 

I mean the USSR was really, really close to nuking us on at least one occasion. 

That said - the environmental stuff and overpopulation are adding some new dynamics to the rinse-and-repeat political instability and warmongering that we've seen throughout human history. Covid didn't help either. 

Very interesting times. Inherently more dangerous than most of the 20th century? I'm not sure. 

[Brisketexan 105139]

2 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I'd say the only period over the past 100+ years that wasn't particularly "dangerous" was post Cold War and pre China rise to power - where you only had one true superpower. 

So... 15-20 years of relative stability? 

I mean the USSR was really, really close to nuking us on at least one occasion. 

That said - the environmental stuff and overpopulation are adding some new dynamics to the rinse-and-repeat political instability and warmongering that we've seen throughout human history. Covid didn't help either. 

Very interesting times. Inherently more dangerous than most of the 20th century? I'm not sure. 

Good post.  Who knows?  Either way, buckle up, buttercup.

[PRONG HORN 3146]

Population decliners are the new flat earthers 

[Gengs1 2583]

Seems like crappy countries that shouldn’t be having kids are having shit ton of them and will strain other countries cause they cannot feed the kids and ask for aid. 

[Celery Man 20949]

I saw a crappy country buying groceries with foreign aid last week and sure enough - texting away on the latest iPhone 😑

[CooterBrown 18012]

Seems like crappy countries that shouldn’t be having kids are having shit ton of them and will strain other countries cause they cannot feed the kids and ask for aid. 

Don’t worry, with our own flattening population curve, our economy will shrink without an ever increasing consumer base and we won’t be providing aid to anyone.

[Born to Run 6569]

I saw a crappy country buying groceries with foreign aid last week and sure enough - texting away on the latest iPhone

And they were driving a brand new Cadillac.

[CycleTex87 2970]

It’s a lease dude. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

16 hours ago, PRONG HORN said:

Population decliners are the new flat earthers 

Birth rates are sub-replacement level in the US, all European countries, Russia, South Korea, Japan, basically anywhere that is 'first world'.  All growth comes from immigration.  If you don't have that immigration (e.g., Russia, Japan), you get population decline and resulting odd effects.

[GreenspointTexas 9602]

Are we factoring in future robotic workers into the equation at all?

[CHIEF 5087]

5 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Are we factoring in future robotic workers into the equation at all?

I can't wait for this, work a few years to pay for a robot worker to replace you. Send it to work each morning, go back to bed, wake up and lay on the couch drinking beer and watching Andy Griffith reruns.

CHIEF

[Brisketexan 105139]

14 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Are we factoring in future robotic workers into the equation at all?

We're talking about sex robots, right?  We're ALWAYS talking about sex robots, right?

[Gatorubet 30238]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

We're talking about sex robots, right?  We're ALWAYS talking about sex robots, right?

Is it wrong that I want to be on the PSC of the sex robot malfunction products liability MDL? 

When a sex robot hand job goes awry, there should be significant compensation. 

[Brisketexan 105139]

3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Is it wrong that I want to be on the PSC of the sex robot malfunction products liability MDL? 

When a sex robot hand job goes awry, there should be significant compensation. 

In a related story, ANY robot can be a sex robot, if you're brave enough....

 

[SydneyCarton 48106]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

In a related story, ANY robot can be a sex robot, if you're brave enough....

 

[Gatorubet 30238]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

In a related story, ANY robot can be a sex robot, if you're brave enough....

 

They will talk about you and the wife after you go to work. 

[crash_davis 23113]

2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Birth rates are sub-replacement level in the US, all European countries, Russia, South Korea, Japan, basically anywhere that is 'first world'.  All growth comes from immigration.  If you don't have that immigration (e.g., Russia, Japan), you get population decline and resulting odd effects.

This is going to be funny 30 years from now. Society depends on younger generations to do the labor that keeps society running, from fixing roads to serving sandwiches at a fast food joint to paying taxes. As the populations get older and there are fewer people to do the actual work and pay taxes into the government services, shit is going to break. Social security for example is a ponzi scheme, albeit a necessary one. What happens to that ponzi scheme when the withdrawals far outweigh the contributions? Same with infrastructure, defense, government services, etc. Are these first world countries going to want to open their borders to immigrant workers to compensate for the labor and tax base losses?

Japan is probably going to be the first nation to experience this. They are trying to encourage immigration but Japanese are pretty fucking xenophobic. It will be interesting to watch the impact and what the government can do about it. 

[Brisketexan 105139]

1 minute ago, crash_davis said:

This is going to be funny 30 years from now. Society depends on younger generations to do the labor that keeps society running, from fixing roads to serving sandwiches at a fast food joint to paying taxes. As the populations get older and there are fewer people to do the actual work and pay taxes into the government services, shit is going to break. Social security for example is a ponzi scheme, albeit a necessary one. What happens to that ponzi scheme when the withdrawals far outweigh the contributions? Same with infrastructure, defense, government services, etc. Are these first world countries going to want to open their borders to immigrant workers to compensate for the labor and tax base losses?

Japan is probably going to be the first nation to experience this. They are trying to encourage immigration but Japanese are pretty fucking xenophobic. It will be interesting to watch the impact and what the government can do about it. 

What's funny is that the nations with peaked/declining populations are almost all embracing xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment at new highs (Japan was always xenophobic, they've actually got room to dial it down)......when "immigration" is going to be a big component of solving our looming demographic woes.

In my dotage, I fully expect to have my ass wiped in the skilled nursing facility by an immigrant.  That's important.  My ass will need wiping.  And I won't be alone; hundreds of millions of western europeans, chinese, and russians will be in the same boat.

[crash_davis 23113]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

What's funny is that the nations with peaked/declining populations are almost all embracing xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment at new highs (Japan was always xenophobic, they've actually got room to dial it down)......when "immigration" is going to be a big component of solving our looming demographic woes.

In my dotage, I fully expect to have my ass wiped in the skilled nursing facility by an immigrant.  That's important.  My ass will need wiping.  And I won't be alone; hundreds of millions of western europeans, chinese, and russians will be in the same boat.

Immigration is bad, until it's not.

[Brisketexan 105139]

6 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Immigration is bad, until it's not.

Being that NOBODY in power is actually looking at immigration from a real-world economic perspective, we're not going to get it right.  That much, I can guarantee.  

"Immigration" has two values in this country: 1) (and this is the primary value) its value as a political hot-button to rile up nativist bullshit and, to a lesser extent, an image of "standing up for minority communities", and 2) a source of cheap labor to certain industries who make sure they contribute enough money to the ruling party so they'll never face any legal consequences for doing the very thing the ruling party screams "is destroying our country!" on repeat.  That's it.  

We COULD look at immigration through the lens of demographics, internal economic future, regional economics and stability, etc.  Anyone know of anybody actually doing that?  Nope?  Yeah.  Hell, I'm not sure that ANY country other than Japan is actually doing ANYTHING to deal with its demographic issues.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4976]

Using immigration to compensate for a stalled population is pretty poor policy, as it is just kicking the can down the road. Maybe we need to fix how society is structured instead of just screwing our youngest generations.

[Brisketexan 105139]

8 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Using immigration to compensate for a stalled population is pretty poor policy, as it is just kicking the can down the road. Maybe we need to fix how society is structured instead of just screwing our youngest generations.

Using immigration ALONE would be poor policy, I agree.  But it's part of a comprehensive solution.

I mean, I don't think that either you or I have anything to worry about.  We've shown even LESS inclination to fix our shitty social structure than we have shown to fix immigration.  So nothing good will happen.

[Parliament 14260]

But if it kicks the can down the road until the fem bots are ready...

[crash_davis 23113]

29 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Using immigration to compensate for a stalled population is pretty poor policy, as it is just kicking the can down the road. Maybe we need to fix how society is structured instead of just screwing our youngest generations.

so you expect the olds to solve housing prices and global warming? they are getting rich from the first and will be dead when the second truly fucks the planet. 

[TKthunder2 4991]

Automation is coming. McDonalds is considering going cashless to limit risk and reduce staff by about 25% and that just using preexisting technology (cards/contactless payments, mobile app/customer kiosks).

I don’t see population decline as a bad thing. If you’re concerned about global warming decreasing population and increasing automation and efficiencies is a great thing for humanity. Lowering our need to water, food, energy and housing would all be great things if social security and defense spending weren’t hanging over our heads.

Edited November 17, 2022 by TKthunder2

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

2 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

Automation is coming. McDonalds is considering going cashless to limit risk and reduce staff by about 25% and that just using preexisting technology (cards/contactless payments, mobile app/customer kiosks).

I don’t see population decline as a bad thing. If you’re concerned about global warming decreasing population and increasing automation and efficiencies is a great thing for humanity. Lowering our need to water, food, energy and housing would all be great things if social security and defense spending weren’t hanging over our heads.

all of that stuff is good.  we just don't have an economic plan for it right now.  a decreasing population under our current economic set up would mean we will be living in recessions, each generation having less than their parents, for a while.  that is a plan for instability.  if we could get all that figured out -- and automation is certainly a big part of it -- then it is probably good.

[Parliament 14260]

Yeah, but I got mine.  Put it in bitcoin last April.  Buy and Hold, just like my dad told me.  

You're recessionary dystopia is not my future.  #dealwithit

[Brisketexan 105139]

41 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Yeah, but I got mine.  Put it in bitcoin last April.  Buy and Hold, just like my dad told me.  

You're recessionary dystopia is not my future.  #dealwithit

Odd way to admit you're not smart enough to stake your future on Beanie Babies and emu ranching, but okay, you do you.

[Poe It Up 126]

On 11/15/2022 at 2:15 PM, tigol said:

Whoh. As a female I completely disagree. I’ve made more money than my husband for years and couldn’t be happier with the situation.

There’s data that shows men with smaller penises make more money. In other words, I’m very poor. 

[Celery Man 20949]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Yeah, but I got mine.  Put it in bitcoin last April.  Buy and Hold, just like my dad told me.  

You're recessionary dystopia is not my future.  #dealwithit

ok boomer

[MeerkatBong 115]

12 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

all of that stuff is good.  we just don't have an economic plan for it right now.  a decreasing population under our current economic set up would mean we will be living in recessions, each generation having less than their parents, for a while.  that is a plan for instability.  if we could get all that figured out -- and automation is certainly a big part of it -- then it is probably good.

Decreasing population is good. I read and posted somewhere else on this site that the UN predicts we peak at 10.X billion people (at 8bn currently) and then it declines back down to a more "sustainable" level for the earth.

That said, economically, we have to move our thinking from the infinite, growing-the-pie approach to a more finite, zero-sum this is how big the pie can actually be and let's put a plan in place to make it work.

Lastly, and I hope this isn't too CR, but Andrew Yang was ahead of his time. Automation, Future-of-Work, Digital Labor, whatever you want to call it needs to be understood and addressed politically and domestically because it's incubating commercially and policies, regulatory bodies, safeguards (social security, etc.) need to be ready for this new world. UBI must be piloted in America IMO.

[crash_davis 23113]

Population decline is good for the planet. Is it good for governments and countries funded by ponzi schemes? 

[MeerkatBong 115]

2 hours ago, crash_davis said:

Population decline is good for the planet. Is it good for governments and countries funded by ponzi schemes? 

Are you arguing that all modern economic systems are ponzi schemes? I mean, I could see it (if you are), but like I said, that's wholesale change management to try to pivot from our conception of economy and labor and wealth and freedom/sovereignty. 

[GringoSalado 1651]

4 hours ago, MeerkatBong said:

Decreasing population is good.

You first.

[crash_davis 23113]

timely article from the Guardian about Japan and SK

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/19/fear-older-future-japan-south-korea-birth-fertility-rates-population?CMP=twt_gu#Echobox=1668823582

TLDR

- Men are lazy assholes and don't do housework or help with raising kids

- Women don't want to be baby factories

- Women make money and don't want to leave the workforce to be baby factories and maids

- Young people don't feel good about the future

- Shit is expensive

[Snake Diggity 4624]

Children of Men and shit

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Quote

It’s ‘now or never’ to reverse Japan’s population crisis, prime minister says

Tokyo CNN  —  none

Japan’s prime minister issued a dire warning about the country’s population crisis on Monday, saying it was “on the brink of not being able to maintain social functions” due to the falling birth rate.

In a policy address to lawmakers, Fumio Kishida said it was a case of solving the issue “now or never,” and that it “simply cannot wait any longer.”

“In thinking of the sustainability and inclusiveness of our nation’s economy and society, we place child-rearing support as our most important policy,” the prime minister said. 

 

Kishida added that he wants the government to double its spending on child-related programs, and that a new government agency would be set up in April to focus on the issue. 

Japanese town paying couples to have babies (2018)

04:00 - Source: CNN

Japan has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, with the Ministry of Health predicting it will record fewer than 800,000 births in 2022 for the first time since records began in 1899.

The country also has one of the highest life expectancies in the world; in 2020, nearly one in 1,500 people in Japan were age 100 or older, according to government data.

 

These trends have driven a growing demographic crisis, with a rapidly aging society, a shrinking workforce and not enough young people to fill the gaps in the stagnating economy.

Experts point to several factors behind the low birth rate. The country’s high cost of living, limited space and lack of child care support in cities make it difficult to raise children, meaning fewer couples are having kids. Urban couples are also often far from extended family who could help provide support.

Attitudes toward marriage and starting families have also shifted in recent years, with more couples putting off both during the pandemic.

Some point to the pessimism young people in Japan hold toward the future, many frustrated with work pressure and economic stagnation.

Tokyo is so crowded the government is paying families to leave

Japan’s economy has stalled since its asset bubble burst in the early 1990s. The country’s GDP growth slowed from 4.9% in 1990 to 0.3% in 2019, according to the World Bank. Meanwhile, the average real annual household income declined from 6.59 million yen ($50,600) in 1995 to 5.64 million yen ($43,300) in 2020, according to 2021 data from the country’s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

 

The government has launched various initiatives to address the population decline over the past few decades, including new policies to enhance child care services and improve housing facilities for families with children. Some rural towns have even begun paying couples who live there to have children. 

Shifting demographics are a concern across other parts of East Asia, too.

South Korea recently broke its own recordfor the world’s lowest fertility rate, with data from November 2022 showing a South Korean woman will have an average of 0.79 children in her lifetime – far below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population. Japan’s fertility rate stands at 1.3, while the United States is at 1.6.

Meanwhile, China’s population shrank in 2022 for the first time since the 1960s, adding to its woes as it struggles to recover from the pandemic. The last time its population fell was in 1961, during a famine that killed tens of millions of people across the country.

CNN’s Emiko Jozuka contributed reporting.

 

[Biff Tannen 45685]

This is what happens when you pixelate pubic hair and create a tentacle porn addiction. 

[CooterBrown 18012]

To encourage births, Austria gives you free daycare and pays you €1K/month until the kid turns 18. Japan needs to nut up and do the same if they have any hope of recovery.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

38 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

 

I know Japan is an insular population but they would be smart to allow more immigration, even from non-Asian countries. Their govt could financially assist the immigrants and push them to learn the language, culture, etc.  it’s either now, or at some point in the future.

I’ve read reports how some small Japanese villages are disappearing because everyone is over 70.

[Macanudo 12978]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I know Japan is an insular population but they would be smart to allow more immigration, even from non-Asian countries. Their govt could financially assist the immigrants and push them to learn the language, culture, etc.  it’s either now, or at some point in the future.

I’ve read reports how some small Japanese villages are disappearing because everyone is over 70.

Don't we have the same thing happening in west Texas?

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1549]

so everyone on Earth will be Nigerian, Pakistani, Indian, Bangladeshi, Brazilian, Indonesian, or Mexican in 100 years.  The food will be incredible no doubt. 

Doom and gloom aside, doesn't matter if Japan is 50 million instead of 100 million. As long as perfect cars/tv/electronics are produced, all else is irrelevant. Besides, can't the 70-80 crowd do work?  My dad retired at 75, his brother worked until 83.  Sometimes I see 75yo working the drive-thru.  Why can't Japan olds do work?

We the US Ameros will adapt, AS WE ALWAYS DO, and prosper.  We are clever mofos, cannot be defeated, use freedom and ingenuity to solve any f'n problem thrown our way.  Don't worry about anything, we got this, for centuries and centuries. 

[atomheartbevo 89668]

42 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

We the US Ameros will adapt, AS WE ALWAYS DO, and prosper.  We are clever mofos, cannot be defeated, use freedom and ingenuity to solve any f'n problem thrown our way.  Don't worry about anything, we got this, for centuries and centuries. 

We have a healthy immigrant population that’s geographically accessible, that has plenty of young folks of child-bearing age, and that can slide into American culture quite easily (many of us in Texas know/went to school with plenty of children/grandchildren of immigrants).  Langauage is also not nearly as much of a barrier due to the bilingual population, entertainment/media, and education.

All of that is extremely difficult for Japan - they are extremely insular in terms of their culture and language, and unlike the US, they don’t have centuries of taking in immigrants from Europe/Mexico/Africa/South America.  Japan just doesn’t have the infrastructure or the mindset to take in a large enough immigrant population that can reverse its population trends.  They have plenty of people from other countries that would love to go and live there, and YouTube is full of videos of such people exploring living in Japan, but many of those people have difficulty living there, even if they work hard at fitting in.

[tx 3 putt 76958]

5 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

To encourage births, Austria gives you free daycare and pays you €1K/month until the kid turns 18. Japan needs to nut up and do the same if they have any hope of recovery.

 

they need a lot more nutting up in japan, for sure 

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1549]

6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

We have a healthy immigrant population that’s geographically accessible, that has plenty of young folks of child-bearing age, and that can slide into American culture quite easily (many of us in Texas know/went to school with plenty of children/grandchildren of immigrants).  Langauage is also not nearly as much of a barrier due to the bilingual population, entertainment/media, and education.

All of that is extremely difficult for Japan - they are extremely insular in terms of their culture and language, and unlike the US, they don’t have centuries of taking in immigrants from Europe/Mexico/Africa/South America.  Japan just doesn’t have the infrastructure or the mindset to take in a large enough immigrant population that can reverse its population trends.  They have plenty of people from other countries that would love to go and live there, and YouTube is full of videos of such people exploring living in Japan, but many of those people have difficulty living there, even if they work hard at fitting in.

"extremely insular" is a euphemism for xenophobia, avoiding the mongrels (blacks/browns) or their historical enemies (Chinese, Koreans, Vietnamese, Filipinos).  They don't even like white guys doing their comfort women.   Immigration is not going to happen to any substantial level and I really don't blame them honestly, their culture has been bastardized by the west, but they do have power to keep their gene pool traditional Japanese. 

All they have to do is (1) make the olds work -- not as difficult as it seems (2) reduce the senior benefits (3) robotize everything, already happening as $25 billion has been invested (4) work from home, reduce the 12-14 hour workslave mentality.

Last 70 years, they've contributed tremendously to the world with such refinement and perfection in products.  I will never buy a vehicle outside of Toyota/Lexus or Honda/Acura, and always look for something made in Japan.  They will survive and prosper, even with a declining population, the perils of which are grossly exaggerated.

 

 

If Russia were to die off, that would be something to celebrate. 

[smuggs 9353]

11 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

It’s ‘now or never’ to reverse Japan’s population crisis, prime minister says

 

 

 

[HamsterHookah 112]

It feels like a failure when the cornerstone of our entire economic and social strategy is dependent on population growth and scaling human beings.

It would be like if a business never actually had a plan to be profitable and responsible but instead just projected out unlimited user-growth to sustain their spend and investments and market share.

It's not sustainable, in both the general and ESG use of the term.

['stache 21815]

Growth for growth's sake is ridiculous. Judging everything by GDP is equally ridiculous. If there are enough people to make a country successful, why do we need more? Population growth since the advent of modern medicine is fine, but ultimately unsustainable. We're also not an agrarian society anymore, you don't need 8 kids to help work the farm. With respect to automation, John Maynard Keyes speculated that we'd all work 15 hour work weeks and live comfortable lives with plenty of time for leisure. Of course he failed to account for greed and that the people at the top would rake in all of the profits from automation and tell everyone else to fuck off, and certainly could not have predicted that people would be so utterly stupid in the future that they would vote for people promoting this upward redistribution of wealth. Our species has failed.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/sep/01/economics