population decline

[ultimaton 2981]

19 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Don't know which sock you are, but are you implying an anthropogenic climate change isn't happening? I also think the GT quote was about reaching the tipping point of the feedback loop of climate heating, which we probably have, so adaptation is our only option. Don't give a fuck if homo Sapiens adapt or not.

GRHorn, and yes, he's a climate change denier.

[Biff Tannen 45691]

8 hours ago, ultimaton said:

GRHorn, and yes, he's a climate change denier.

It’s ok. He’ll be dead soon. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Opinion Russia’s population crisis is making Putin more dangerous

Max Boot

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting via videoconference from the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow on March 3. (Mikhail Metzel/AP)

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Russia is in a demographic death spiral. In the long term, that’s bad news for Russia. But in the short term, it’s bad news for Russia’s neighbors, because Vladimir Putin may be seeking military solutions to demographic problems.

Deaths have outpaced births almost every year since the end of communism. Russia’s population peaked in 1993 at 148.6 million. At the start of 2022, it was estimated at 145.6 million. That’s a decline of only 2 percent, but, by way of comparison, the U.S. population grew 33 percent from 1990 to 2020. The World Bank calculates that Russian life expectancy at birth is only 71 years compared with 77 in the United States. The disparity is even more dramatic among men: In the United States it’s 75 and in Russia, 66. That’s lower than in North Korea, Syria or Bangladesh. Russia has the world’s 11th-largest economy but ranks 96th in life expectancy.

Nicholas Eberstadt, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, explained this deadly discrepancy in a fascinating report last year. The main problem is that Russia’s birthrate is only 1.5 children per woman — well below replacement level (two children per woman).

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That rate isn’t especially low compared with other industrialized countries. But Russia stands out for its extraordinarily high death rate, particularly among men, from cardiovascular diseases (heart attacks, strokes, etc.) and injuries (homicides, suicides, accidents). Given the country’s income and education levels, Russian deaths from both causes are several times higher than expected. This can be explained by Russia’s terrible health-care system, its environmental pollution, and its high levels of binge drinking and drug addiction — which, in turn, are a sign of despair.

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Russia’s already high death rate has recently spiked. During the covid-19 pandemic, 2020-2023, Russia had 1.2 million to 1.6 million excess deaths, according to the Economist. If this is accurate, it means Russia had more covid deaths than the United States, whose population is more than twice as large.

Then, in the past year, Russia has suffered 60,000 to 70,000 combat fatalities in Ukraine — more than in all its other wars since 1945 combined, with no end in sight. “The average rate of Russian soldiers killed per month is at least 25 times the number killed per month in Chechnya and 35 times the number killed in Afghanistan,” reports the Center for Strategic and International Studies. And since the start of the war, 500,000 to 1 million Russians — mostly young and educated — have fled the country. In Moscow, there is a visible shortage of men.

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Russia’s population loss is expected to continue — down to 135 million people by 2050 and 126 million by 2100. Currently the world’s ninth-most populous country, it is projected to fall to number 22 by century’s end. Demographics is, to some extent, destiny. Russia’s days as a great power are numbered.

Putin is acutely conscious of the problem and talks about it all the time. In September 2021, he lamented that Russia now would have a population of 500 million were it not for the loss of the Russian empire after the 1917 revolution and the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union, which he has called “the largest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

He has tried in vain all the normal ways to reverse the trend, from offering financial incentives for citizens to have more children to trying to lure immigrants from Central Asia. His invasion of Ukraine can be seen as a desperate gambit to increase the Russian population at gunpoint.

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Russia occupies Ukrainian territories once inhabited by 8 million people — many of whom have died, fled or been deported to Russia. That the Russians have kidnapped at least 11,000 Ukrainian children looks especially sinister in light of Russia’s baby deficit.

Stephen Sestanovich, a former U.S. ambassador at large to the Soviet republics who is now a colleague of mine at the Council on Foreign Relations, told me that Putin is motivated by a “fever dream of decline.” The depopulation of Russia, he said, “feeds Putin’s apocalyptic sense of his own grand responsibilities. If you’re worried about a shrinking population, maybe conquering the 40 million people next door will solve your problem?”

Of course, in trying to address Russia’s manpower deficit, Putin only exacerbates it. But, alas, there is no evidence that Russia is running out of cannon fodder to send to Ukraine. An estimated 7.2 millionRussian men are between the ages of 18 and 26. Putin was able to mobilize an additional 300,000 soldiers last year with little difficulty, and another draft may be in the offing. He may have more troublekeeping his vow to expand the army from 1.1 million soldiers to 1.5 million by 2026, but he doesn’t need an extra 400,000 troops to continue inflicting great suffering on the people of Ukraine.

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In the short term, the loss of so many emigrants may actually help Putin by solidifying his control. “The problematic people are gone, and those who remain are the ones the regime needs to sustain itself and the war,” said Alina Polyakova, president of the Center for European Policy Analysis.

So there’s little hope that Russia’s demographic woes will curtail the threat it poses anytime soon. If anything, Putin’s awareness of the “demographic doom loop” makes him more desperate and more dangerous.

[Buzzrock 14921]

Maybe.....and at the expense of every other species that shares the planet.  When you take into account the idea that maybe we should share the planet with our fellow life forms, and not simply consume the planet, the ability/proprietary of massive population expansion doesn't really check out.
We should be able to occupy an earth that ALSO has on it things like forests, and monkeys, and fish, and birds, and everything else.  Otherwise, yeah, your vision is damn close to Coruscant.  Which -- and I am perfectly comfortable making this value judgment -- is a shitty vision.  I don't want my descendants to live in that world.  I don't want my descendants to not know what a natural landscape looks like, to not know what a wild animal is.  Our greatest challenge in the long-term future shouldn't be "how do we support massive continued expansion where we consume every square inch of land," but rather "how do we find a way to support a reasonable population while living in some sort of ecological balance."  In short, if we destroy the things we love about planet earth, what's the fucking point?  We are natural beings, we are designed to live on a natural planet.  I don't mean we have to wander the savannah and spear our food, but even people who live in cities inherently yearn for green spaces and fresh air.

You haven’t been paying attention. Future generations are going to live in a virtual world where there is unlimited everything.

Also to hell with monkeys. They can all die. The rest of nature is pretty cool though.

[Schulz2.0 28957]

58 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Of course, in trying to address Russia’s manpower deficit, Putin only exacerbates it. But, alas, there is no evidence that Russia is running out of cannon fodder to send to Ukraine. An estimated 7.2 millionRussian men are between the ages of 18 and 26. Putin was able to mobilize an additional 300,000 soldiers last year with little difficulty, and another draft may be in the offing. 

So basically we need to kill a lot more Russians?

[nbmishoid 949]

8 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

You haven’t been paying attention. Future generations are going to live in a virtual world where there is unlimited everything.

Also to hell with monkeys. They can all die. The rest of nature is pretty cool though.

Agreed on the monkeys.  A trip to the cape in South Africa, as beautiful as it was, was a bit marred by the pitched battle in the parking lot among the monkeys and the folks trying to get in or out of their cars.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

NYT 

Quote

Japan Has Millions of Empty Houses. Want to Buy One for $25,000?

With a shrinking population and more than 10 million abandoned properties, the country is straining to match houses with curious buyers.

April 17, 2023

 

Jaya Thursfield, an Australian who moved to Japan 2017 with his wife Chihiro, bought an abandoned house not far from Tokyo for 3 million yen, or around $23,000, in 2019, and set about renovating it.Andrew Faulk for The New York Times

When Jaya Thursfield found a house he wanted to buy in Japan a few years ago, friends and family told him to forget it. The place wasn’t worth the trouble, they said. After all, it stood in a forest of shoulder-high weeds after being abandoned about seven years earlier — one of the millions of vacant houses known as akiya, Japanese for “empty house” — throughout the country.

But Mr. Thursfield, 46, an Australian software developer, wasn’t deterred. Through the overgrown garden, he could see it was special: The black roof tiles cascaded down to slightly curving eaves that were much higher off the ground than those of most houses. The entrance hall had its own gabled tile roof. If the 2,700-square-foot house looked more like a Buddhist temple than a farmhouse, it’s because it had been built by a temple architect in 1989.

Mr. Thursfield and his Japanese-born wife, Chihiro, had moved to Japan from London in 2017 with their two young sons and a dream of buying a home with a big yard. The plan was to purchase a vacant lot and build a house on it, but land is expensive in Japan and their budget wouldn’t allow it. So they turned to the growing supply of abandoned houses, which are cheaper and often come with more land.

They’re far from the only ones. “We would never have been able to afford a house of this quality and size if it wasn’t an akiya,” said Ms. Thursfield, 49. “And while many Japanese don’t like used homes, foreigners see a house that is cheap and are more willing to reuse and renovate to their tastes and budget.”

As Japan’s population shrinks and more properties go unclaimed, an emerging segment of buyers, feeling less tethered to overcrowded cities, is seeking out rural architecture in need of some love. The most recent government data, from the 2018 Housing and Land survey, reported about 8.5 million akiya across the country — roughly 14 percent of the country’s overall housing stock — but observers say there are many more today. The Nomura Research Institute puts the number at more than 11 million, and predicts that akiya could exceed 30 percent of all houses in Japan by 2033.

The Thursfields’ house, which sits among the paddies in southern Ibaraki Prefecture, about 45 minutes from central Tokyo, had been deserted after the previous owner’s family refused to inherit it upon the owner’s death. The local municipality took it over and put it up for auction with a 5 million yen ($38,000) minimum bid, but it failed to sell.

When it landed on the block again, Mr. Thursfield decided to try his luck. After giving it a quick inspection with an architect friend and finding no major issues despite the years of neglect, he nabbed the house for 3 million yen, about $23,000.

Houses in Japan typically decrease in value over time until they are worthless — the cultural legacy of post-World War II construction and shifting building codes — with only the land retaining value. Owners feel little incentive to maintain an aging house, and buyers often seek to demolish them and start fresh. But that can be expensive.

Others aim to preserve what’s there. “There was no way we wanted to knock it down and build something new. It was too beautiful. So we decided to renovate instead,” Mr. Thursfield said. “I’ve always been someone who likes to jump in the deep end, take a few risks, and learn new things, so I was confident that we would manage somehow.”

Since buying the farmhouse in 2019, the couple have spent about $150,000 on renovations, and there’s more to do. Mr. Thursfield has documented the project on YouTube, drawing more than 200,000 subscribers.

While the Thursfields’ house had been abandoned by the previous owner’s heirs, some homeowners die without ever naming an inheritor. Others leave their properties to relatives who refuse to sell family land out of respect for their elders, leaving the house to wither.

“In rural areas, there is a long history of ancestral owners of akiya living in the houses and on the land,” said Kazunobu Tsutsui, a professor of rural geography and economics at Tottori University who lives in a renovated akiya built more than a century ago. “Therefore, even after moving to the city, families will not give up their akiya easily.”

Now officials on both local and national levels are taking steps to give them a push.

“Poorly maintained akiya can mar the scenery as well as endanger residents’ lives and property if they collapse,” said Kazuhiro Nagao, a city official in Sakata, along the west coast, where heavy snowfall can damage unattended structures. “We’re partly subsidizing demolitions, collecting neighborhood association reports on akiya, and trying to make owners aware of the problem by holding briefings.”

Though the akiya problem has not had a direct impact on sales in urban markets, where high-rises continue to go up, the potential hazards to communities posed by empty houses are growing along with their numbers, according to Akira Daido, chief consultant at the Nomura Research Institute’s Consulting Division. Mr. Daido pointed to a recent legal revision that allows local authorities to effectively raise the property taxes on neglected houses if the owners ignore municipal requests to maintain or demolish them. In another sign of rising concern, the government has approved a plan by the city of Kyoto, where inventory is tight yet some 15,000 houses sit empty, to tax the owners of those empty homes — a first in Japan.

Akiya are increasingly seen not just as a threat to suburban and rural markets, but to the emotional health of the country, sparking family disputes over inherited properties. That, in turn, has led to a cottage industry of akiya consultants like Takamitsu Wada, the chief executive of Akiya Katsuyo, who acts as a counselor for squabbling relatives, often urging them to act before their properties become a lost cause.

“In many cases, the parents die without making clear their wishes regarding the family home, or they develop dementia and find it difficult to discuss these things,” Mr. Wada said. “In such cases, the children may feel guilty about getting rid of the family home, and may often choose to leave it unoccupied.”

Municipalities across Japan are also compiling listings of vacant houses for sale or rent. Known as “akiya banks,” they are often bare-bones web pages with a few underwhelming photos. Some have partnered with private-sector companies like At Home, which currently lists akiya in 658 of Japan’s 1,741 municipalities.

“Akiya banks are run by municipal office workers, the majority of which often do not have any experience in real estate,” said, Matthew Ketchum, a Pittsburgh native and co-founder of Akiya & Inaka, a Tokyo-based real estate consultancy. “The existing solutions do not align with the needs of modern buyers and sellers.”

Mr. Ketchum’s firm is one of several that have sprung up to capitalize on the akiya glut, matching vacant homes with curious buyers. Akiya & Inaka’s listings include a 2,195-square-foot home built in 1983 in the suburb of Hachioji, Tokyo, with a small garden and a reception room featuring a raised tatami floor, tokonoma alcove and a rare wickerwork ceiling of woven cedar. The property is listed at 36 million yen, about $272,000.

“Every Japanese agent we talked to advised us to demolish this place,” said the house’s owner, Takahiro Okada, 85, a retired journalist. He and his wife Reiko, 86, had been renting out the house but decided to sell after their tenant left last year. Their children weren’t interested in it, so the property lingered. Different owners might have torn it down and sold the land.

“If we all do that, we’re losing Japanese culture,” Ms. Okada said. “When seen from an international perspective, and through the eyes of foreigners, Japanese things can have inherent uniqueness and value.”

Mr. Ketchum and his partner, Parker J. Allen, said they’re now fielding about five times the number of inquiries as when they began in 2020. “At first, we were getting most of our inquiries from Japan residents, Australians and Singaporeans,” Mr. Ketchum said. “That has changed now, with the vast majority of our international clients being based in the U.S.”

Many clients have been spurred by the pandemic, which “definitely changed the mind-set of people living in Japan regarding the idea of rural living,” Mr. Allen said. “The fact that property in the Japanese countryside is by and large undervalued and there are viable properties that are almost turnkey has finally dawned on these people.”

One person it did not dawn on recently is Alex Kerr, an author and Japanologist originally from Maryland, who became an akiya owner in 1973 when he acquired an abandoned country house (known as a minka) in the mountains of Shikoku, the smallest of Japan’s four main islands, for $1,800.

Named Chiiori, or House of the Flute, the thatched-roof aerie is about 300 years old. Inside, it’s a shadowy space of polished wood floorboards, a large sunken irori hearth and giant overhead rafters wreathed in smoke. Outside, mist rises from the Kumatani River in the gorge below.

Mr. Kerr, 70, is the first to admit that akiya can be money pits. He has spent decades and roughly $700,000 (“about half” of which came from a government grant, he said) maintaining it, and now rents it out as a guesthouse. It’s one of about 40 derelict Japanese properties he has restored over the years, all the while preaching the importance of conservation and rural revitalization to municipalities, companies and homeowners who may not know what makes their properties special.

“Many cultures have wooden architecture, but when it comes to the techniques of carpentry, Japan overwhelmingly leads the world in joinery and use of materials, as well as use of space and choreography,” said Mr. Kerr, whose books include the memoir “Lost Japan.” “When it comes to old minka houses, you have all that, set in a natural environment, and within the context of being cheap. In the Cotswolds, wooden houses cost a fortune, but in Japan they’re being thrown away.”

But he has taken note as real estate companies have begun to snap up habitable antique houses and market them to non-Japanese luxury buyers. He also pointed to young international buyers opening Airbnb rentals in erstwhile akiya and attending events like minka conferences.

Last year, the British videographer Sam King and his wife, Nanami Sakurai, fled Tokyo with the help of an architect who introduced them to an unlisted akiya in the mountains of Otsuki, 50 miles west of Tokyo.

The couple wanted to be “closer to nature on our days off,” said Mr. King, 35. “We also could not afford to buy so much as a shoe box in the city, so the thought of being able to get somewhere with a lot more space was very appealing so we can start a family and also own pets without any trouble.”

The house, in a depopulated community of mostly older residents, had been abandoned for roughly two years after the death of its owner. The price was 12 million yen, or about $88,000.

Set in a garden among plum and kiwi trees, the cottage has traditional tatami mats, shoji-paper and fusuma sliding doors, chunky wooden cabinets and tokonoma alcoves. The previous owner left behind a trove of personal possessions — paintings of Mt. Fuji, rolls of Japanese calligraphy, old tape players, kites, guitars, skis, crockery. The house is about 50 years old and needs to be updated to modern standards. Mr. King estimated the initial renovations, such as redoing the kitchen and bathroom, will cost $20,000 to $30,000. It’s well worth it to escape the city.

“We’d like to improve upon it quite a bit as it’s going to be our home, so we’ll probably end up spending over $100,000 in total on the project,” he said. “But we’ll hopefully end up with our dream home.”

 

[hookem2010 2624]

On 3/15/2023 at 4:50 PM, nbmishoid said:

Agreed on the monkeys.  A trip to the cape in South Africa, as beautiful as it was, was a bit marred by the pitched battle in the parking lot among the monkeys and the folks trying to get in or out of their cars.

Probably wouldn't be so much of a problem if dipshits wouldn't feed wild animals.

[atomheartbevo 89675]

On 3/9/2023 at 2:26 PM, DaysOff said:

Don't know which sock you are, but are you implying an anthropogenic climate change isn't happening? I also think the GT quote was about reaching the tipping point of the feedback loop of climate heating, which we probably have, so adaptation is our only option. Don't give a fuck if homo Sapiens adapt or not.

It's Crispy on his 5th or 6th sock.

[nbmishoid 949]

4 hours ago, hookem2010 said:

Probably wouldn't be so much of a problem if dipshits wouldn't feed wild animals.

Surely.  But once the monkeys learned these combat tactics, they weren’t going to unlearn them. If you go, park in the farthest away space, and take a long loop around the battleground 

[Parliament 14260]

And a gat.

[Mullet Free 40]

I’m not a biologist but if 20% of a generation take themselves out of the regular procreation pool, accelerated population decline is a foregone conclusion. 
 

 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28957]

10 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

I’m not a biologist but if 20% of a generation take themselves out of the regular procreation pool, accelerated population decline is a foregone conclusion. 
 

 

 

 

Plenty of gays and lesbians have kids via surrogate or sperm donor or just adoption. I know plenty of straight people that laughed and said fuck having kids because of the monetary costs and time/freedom costs.

[Mullet Free 40]

3 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Plenty of gays and lesbians have kids via surrogate or sperm donor or just adoption. I know plenty of straight people that laughed and said fuck having kids because of the monetary costs and time/freedom costs.

I’m aware of that and that’s why I put regular procreation pool. 

[Samson's Wig 3192]

I suspect that a lot of those Gen Z numbers fall in the "B" category as well, and most of them will go on to procreate the old-fashioned way regardless.

[Macanudo 12979]

8 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

I suspect that a lot of those Gen Z numbers fall in the "B" category as well, and most of them will go on to procreate the old-fashioned way regardless.

Yep, probably some LUGs in there.

[SydneyCarton 48108]

19 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

I’m aware of that and that’s why I put regular procreation pool. 

So you’re not discounting it, but you’re not adjusting numbers in any way at all. 
 

I know a lesbian couple who’ve had 3 kids with donors. And let’s not forget adoption, of which I’m an adopted child. I’m shocked to see you posing with an agenda. 
 

also let’s not forget that lgbtq isn’t a uniquely US phenomenon, and lots of people will still try to immigrate here because as shitty as they are, they still will be treated better here than, say, the Middle East.

[Mullet Free 40]

52 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

I suspect that a lot of those Gen Z numbers fall in the "B" category as well, and most of them will go on to procreate the old-fashioned way regardless.

I guess that remains TBD. The more time these people spend in their early twenties experimenting, the later it is that they start trying to have kids, with predictable results. 
 

33 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

So you’re not discounting it, but you’re not adjusting numbers in any way at all. 
 

I know a lesbian couple who’ve had 3 kids with donors. And let’s not forget adoption, of which I’m an adopted child. I’m shocked to see you posing with an agenda. 
 

also let’s not forget that lgbtq isn’t a uniquely US phenomenon, and lots of people will still try to immigrate here because as shitty as they are, they still will be treated better here than, say, the Middle East.

I’m not exactly sure why you’re fired up.
 

I would assert that the more people spend time in the LGBT bucket, the more downward pressure is put on the birth rate. No matter where that happens. I really don’t think that’s disputable. 

[SydneyCarton 48108]

10 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

I guess that remains TBD. The more time these people spend in their early twenties experimenting, the later it is that they start trying to have kids, with predictable results. 
 

I’m not exactly sure why you’re fired up.
 

I would assert that the more people spend time in the LGBT bucket, the more downward pressure is put on the birth rate. No matter where that happens. I really don’t think that’s disputable. 

It’s disputable, because you’re not offering any statistics on LGBTQ adoption or childbirth while making a blanket assertion that “isn’t disputable.” 
 

In Japan 1 in 10 folks identify as LGBTQ. Fully half of the rate in the US. Their demographics have been fucked for decades. 
 

we could set our watches by your subtle right wing bullshit. 

Edited April 26, 2023 by SydneyCarton

[Steel Shank 9426]

If y'all need me to lay more pipe, just let me know.

[Celery Man 20961]

The trans woman I worked with for a while has a kid, my former boss (lesbian) hit me up on linkedin the other day and said her partner was pregnant with their second. The trans man I worked with had twins with his wife a year ago. Actually that's interesting that it's 100% hit rate for trans people I've worked with who have kids, as far as i can remember.... I work with a guy now who is childless and I think he's gay but he might just be super fucking southern. Another close former coworker of mine who is a gay man is childless. I kinda feel like gay people in tech are more likely to have kids than straight people in tech. I work with more biotech than tech now and it's a lot more kids.

 

anyways, the smartest thing you said is that you're not a biologist.

[Mullet Free 40]

29 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It’s disputable, because you’re not offering any statistics on LGBTQ adoption or childbirth while making a blanket assertion that “isn’t disputable.” 
 

In Japan 1 in 10 folks I’d study as LGBTQ. Fully half of the rate in the US. Their demographics have been fucked for decades. 
 

we could say our watches by your subtle right wing bullshit. 

You’re free to believe the birth rate (as in children raised) of LGBT is higher than similar heterosexual people despite being totally dependent on those heterosexual people to actually procreate. Seems nonsensical to me, but whatever. 
 

And there’s nothing right wing about my post. I don’t care which consenting adults decide to fuck which other consenting adults. It just seemed like a pretty clear headwind against birth rates. That’s why I shared it here. 
 

17 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

The trans woman I worked with for a while has a kid, my former boss (lesbian) hit me up on linkedin the other day and said her partner was pregnant with their second. The trans man I worked with had twins with his wife a year ago. Actually that's interesting that it's 100% hit rate for trans people I've worked with who have kids, as far as i can remember.... I work with a guy now who is childless and I think he's gay but he might just be super fucking southern. Another close former coworker of mine who is a gay man is childless. I kinda feel like gay people in tech are more likely to have kids than straight people in tech. I work with more biotech than tech now and it's a lot more kids.

 

anyways, the smartest thing you said is that you're not a biologist.

I’m not surprised that affluent gay couples have kids. 

[SydneyCarton 48108]

7 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

You’re free to believe the birth rate (as in children raised) of LGBT is higher than similar heterosexual people despite being totally dependent on those heterosexual people to actually procreate. Seems nonsensical to me, but whatever. 
 

And there’s nothing right wing about my post. I don’t care which consenting adults decide to fuck which other consenting adults. It just seemed like a pretty clear headwind against birth rates. That’s why I shared it here. 
 

I’m not surprised that affluent gay couples have kids. 

“There’s nothing right about my post. I’m just here to tell everyone that if this LGBTQ proliferation continues, America as a country is fucked.” 
 

Totally benign post. Thanks, Kenneth Copeland. 

[Mullet Free 40]

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

“There’s nothing right about my post. I’m just here to tell everyone that if this LGBTQ proliferation continues, America as a country is fucked.” 
 

Totally benign post. Thanks, Kenneth Copeland. 

A decent number of people on this thread think we could use less people to save the planet so I didn’t assume growing population was seen as a positive necessarily. 

[Neonmoon 38129]

6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

“There’s nothing right about my post. I’m just here to tell everyone that if this LGBTQ proliferation continues, America as a country is fucked.” 
 

Totally benign post. Thanks, Kenneth Copeland. 

Mullet is the herpes of Surly. No matter how times he’s banned, he just keeps coming back with more anti-government, anti-USA, anti-Fed, anti-LGBTQ, anti-vaccine trolling. 
 

[Mullet Free 40]

18 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Anti-government

Eh

18 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

anti-USA

Nope 

18 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

anti-Fed

For sure 

19 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

anti-LGBTQ

Absolutely not 

 

20 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

anti-vaccine

No. Anti-mandate was not and still is not anti-vaccine. 

[Don Johnson 4754]

2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

It’s disputable, because you’re not offering any statistics on LGBTQ adoption or childbirth while making a blanket assertion that “isn’t disputable.” 
 

In Japan 1 in 10 folks I’d study as LGBTQ. Fully half of the rate in the US. Their demographics have been fucked for decades. 
 

we could say our watches by your subtle right wing bullshit. 

Just driving by, but I would think donor children would positively affect population like you suggest, but adoption would not. Those children exist whether adopted by gay, straight or no one. 

[SydneyCarton 48108]

6 hours ago, Don Johnson said:

Just driving by, but I would think donor children would positively affect population like you suggest, but adoption would not. Those children exist whether adopted by gay, straight or no one. 

Adoption standards are strict. You don’t think those kids have a better chance of success being raised in a stable household, with money and resources, versus state facilities or foster homes? Which are notoriously shitty in Texas and most other places? 

[SydneyCarton 48108]

“I’m not right-wing, I’m just mildly anti-government, definitely anti-fed, and anti-vax, which I attempt to call anti-mandate despite many vaccinations being mandatory in the US for decades and the fact there was never a Covid vaccine mandate” is about as on the nose a response imaginable. 
 

The only thing more perfect would be if he un-ironically posted a gif or video of the guy squealing “I’m a sovereign citizen” exactly the moment he’s being tazed. Everyone should buy crypto from that guy. 

Edited April 26, 2023 by SydneyCarton

[SydneyCarton 48108]

9 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Mullet is the herpes of Surly. No matter how times he’s banned, he just keeps coming back with more anti-government, anti-USA, anti-Fed, anti-LGBTQ, anti-vaccine trolling. 
 

Was he FC Horn in the old site(s)? I forget if that was the connection made. 

[52-80 19161]

On 2/11/2023 at 4:02 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

With all of the talk of incentivizing people to have more kids, where has it been established that we need that? We are moving more and more to technology replacing the need for many careers, so a gradual decline (or less growth) might be what we need.

That position doesn't need to be established.  It's already been the status quo.  Constant reproduction is a biological imperative of all organisms.  You need to establish why humans should use reproductive capabilities below the death rate.

What's the optimum number of people such that todays number needs to decline? What is the basis for such a number, and when was it reached in previous history, and why wasn't it proven right?  After all, we enjoyed progressively lower mortality rate, higher longevity, better health, and superior quality of life than any bipedal primate have ever enjoyed.

Over 100 billion people lived across 300,000 years of existence this species, and today, now, we have coincidentally *just* surpassed the critical bodycount supported by this planet of 5 billion years?  That is some incredible misfortune, or hubris.

 

[gmr548 16580]

I’m not a biologist but if 20% of a generation take themselves out of the regular procreation pool, accelerated population decline is a foregone conclusion. 
 
 
 
 

It’s hysterical that you think there is some sort of spike in the number of LGBTQ people in the modern world.

Always been there, the difference is the social climate.

[YGIFS 19450]

Kids getting abused in our foster care/state ward system are better off because at least they're not being exposed to drag shows.

I'd encourage many of you to get involved with a UT campus group called "Horns Helping Horns."  In a campus of our size, there are a surprisingly large number of students at UT that were wards of the state/in our foster care system.  About 10-12 years ago, then President Powers' wife-Kim started this organization with several students who had that kinda background.  We have many students that can't travel to see family on break, or have a support network due to distance and money---but these kids literally have none of that, just a bucket of bad memories.  So they formed a support network, and she helped them raise money to have stuff to do and eat during holidays and breaks.  And they would counsel one another and share stories and lean on one another the way other students lean on parents and siblings during stressful times.  And they'd have fun nights out together and sad mornings together.  It was one of the most gut-wrenching things but most uplifting things I've ever been a part of.

I sincerely doubt, after hearing their stories, that a single one of them would have given a solitary goddamn about the sexual preference of some loving, adoptive parents.  You think a transition to big ole' UT-Austin from a small town is hard.  Imagine going straight from a state home to UT-Austin and the stigma that carries.

I'm glad our population is declining.  The less monsters in the room, the better.

[hornbri 1399]

43 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

It’s hysterical that you think there is some sort of spike in the number of LGBTQ people in the modern world.

Always been there, the difference is the social climate.

I don’t see it as a comment about there being more than before. It is as you say the social climate has changed. 

As society becomes more tolerant and accepting of LGBTQ, more people will feel free to live that lifestyle and not pressured into a traditional relationship with kids in their 20s. 

In a thread about population decline it seems like a valid point and one we should acknowledge. The question would be how can we ensure those couples are able to reproduce (via donor or other) at the same rate as a heterosexual couple. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Quote

Nearly 20% of Gen Z is LGBT.

That’s ~1 in 5 people

 

[Mullet Free 40]

2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

which I attempt to call anti-mandate despite many vaccinations being mandatory in the US for decades and the fact there was never a Covid vaccine mandate

A couple things here.

1) Comparing well studied vaccines with long track records to the Covid vaccines is laughable. 
 

2) I see you’re following the new epic gaslighting strategy used by officials involved in Covid policy. You want to distance yourself from supporting these policies, so you put forth some fictional retelling of things. It’s probably worth a try. Just know that the people that opposed these policies or were harmed by them don’t buy it for a second.

If you want to expand on your delusions we should do it in another thread. This isn’t the one for it. 

[SydneyCarton 48108]

18 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

A couple things here.

1) Comparing well studied vaccines with long track records to the Covid vaccines is laughable. 
 

2) I see you’re following the new epic gaslighting strategy used by officials involved in Covid policy. You want to distance yourself from supporting these policies, so you put forth some fictional retelling of things. It’s probably worth a try. Just know that the people that opposed these policies or were harmed by them don’t buy it for a second.

If you want to expand on your delusions we should do it in another thread. This isn’t the one for it. 

You're right, that isn't the thread for this, but I can't help myself. Please, point out the actual federal vaccine mandate for covid. Link to it. We'll all wait. I want to know exactly what "policies" I'm supporting. And it should help all the people who were harmed by such policies. Like all the people who got removed from airline flights for being pricks, those poor souls. 

But thanks, I think you've yet again demonstrated exactly who you are for all on this thread to see. 

[Helobious 9454]

The “population crisis” is such a fucking joke and idiots like Mullet and hornbri fall for it easily because they live in a bubble. Ever heard of chatGPT? AI? Automation? We no longer need near the amount of humans we once did to maintain economic output or a functioning society. 
 

Also holy fuck at thinking 20% of gen z is homosexual. Nowhere even fucking close. We are where we because lots of straight people stopped having kids, not because of some increase in gay people.

[Don Johnson 4754]

40 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Please, point out the actual federal vaccine mandate for covid. Link to it. We'll all wait. I want to know exactly what "policies" I'm supporting.

There doesn't have to be a federal vaccine mandate for one to be for or against it.  It was a topic of discussion for about 2 years and hashed out over and over.  There were attempts at federal mandates.

Also, the discussion doesn't have to be limited to federal.  One can be against military covid mandates or OSHA covid mandates.

I have no idea what you supported.

[SydneyCarton 48108]

1 minute ago, Don Johnson said:

There doesn't have to be a federal vaccine mandate for one to be for or against it.  It was a topic of discussion for about 2 years and hashed out over and over.  There were attempts at federal mandates.

Also, the discussion doesn't have to be limited to federal.  One can be against military covid mandates or OSHA covid mandates.

I have no idea what you supported.

So your statement of defense of this guy is that there doesn't actually have to be a mandate for him to be against a mandate he insisted was very real and harmful to people? Societal pressure isn't a mandate, it's just something assholes who like to do asshole things generally don't like and resent. Like a subset of people who are angry they can't make racist statements without consequences these days.

Employers can set their own requirements for employment and people can choose to abide, or not. I believe that's called Freedom of Choice. Not freedom from consequences.

The idea I support is that Mullet is full of shit and fabricates and spreads bullshit for his own interests.  

[YGIFS 19450]

So we have to approve the mandate to see if there’s a mandate?  Are some of y’all this fucking stupid in real life?  I’m currently getting a vaccine booster because of the mandate the guy at the stoplight told me I had to get in order to proceed through the stoplight.  Seems pretty legit.  Oh wait, now he’s asking me to take him to a gun shop.   Seems normal.  Let’s ride!

[Mullet Free 40]

35 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

You're right, that isn't the thread for this, but I can't help myself. Please, point out the actual federal vaccine mandate for covid. Link to it. We'll all wait. I want to know exactly what "policies" I'm supporting. And it should help all the people who were harmed by such policies. Like all the people who got removed from airline flights for being pricks, those poor souls. 

But thanks, I think you've yet again demonstrated exactly who you are for all on this thread to see. 

You have Google.

I can’t believe in the same thread that you assert that lgbt people could have the same child bearing or raising rates as straight people, you are asserting that there were never any federal Covid vaccine mandates. That’s really something. You’re on a fucking roll, Syd.

That’s without considering extremely suspect CDC/FDA rulings and recommendations regarding teens, boosters etc that knowingly fed into mandates for students at schools all over the country or school closures. 
 

And people harmed weren’t the people getting kicked off planes, it’s people suffering side effects or losing their jobs unnecessarily. 
 

Or how we’re all put more at risk when military recruiting tanks. 

[Don Johnson 4754]

12 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

So your statement of defense of this guy is that there doesn't actually have to be a mandate for him to be against a mandate he insisted was very real and harmful to people? Societal pressure isn't a mandate, it's just something assholes who like to do asshole things generally don't like and resent. Like a subset of people who are angry they can't make racist statements without consequences these days.

Employers can set their own requirements for employment and people can choose to abide, or not. I believe that's called Freedom of Choice. Not freedom from consequences.

The idea I support is that Mullet is full of shit and fabricates and spreads bullshit for his own interests.  

Are you serious?  You think there has to be a federal mandate for someone to be against it?  

Can someone be against this or is an opinion not allowed because it was blocked by the court?

https://apnews.com/article/vaccine-requirement-biden-covid-fifth-circuit-74ae504966aaf5239a42cc3e677182b4

[Nivek 16933]

1 hour ago, Helobious said:

The “population crisis” is such a fucking joke and idiots like Mullet and hornbri fall for it easily because they live in a bubble. Ever heard of chatGPT? AI? Automation? We no longer need near the amount of humans we once did to maintain economic output or a functioning society. 
 

Also holy fuck at thinking 20% of gen z is homosexual. Nowhere even fucking close. We are where we because lots of straight people stopped having kids, not because of some increase in gay people.

He is probably concerned about ice cream-related drownings.  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 hour ago, Helobious said:

The “population crisis” is such a fucking joke and idiots like Mullet and hornbri fall for it easily because they live in a bubble.

population decline is happening in huge swaths of the earth.  whether it is a 'crisis' or not depends on which of the million aspects of life you're looking at.  we built an entire world on the last century's pattern that each generation will be larger than previous.  ending that assumption will relieve stresses in some places (e.g., resource consumption) and cause stresses in some places (e.g., economic systems, migratory patterns, stability as nations lose preeminence).

[SydneyCarton 48108]

31 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

You have Google.

I can’t believe in the same thread that you assert that lgbt people could have the same child bearing or raising rates as straight people, you are asserting that there were never any federal Covid vaccine mandates. That’s really something. You’re on a fucking roll, Syd.

That’s without considering extremely suspect CDC/FDA rulings and recommendations regarding teens, boosters etc that knowingly fed into mandates for students at schools all over the country or school closures. 
 

And people harmed weren’t the people getting kicked off planes, it’s people suffering side effects or losing their jobs unnecessarily. 
 

Or how we’re all put more at risk when military recruiting tanks. 

You have google as well, and I'm not seeing any evidence supporting your claims. Just the use of slanting verbiage like "EXTREMELY SUSPECT CDC/FDA rulings." I'll assume you aren't referencing Desantis's surgeon general falsifying a Covid safety study. 

Would you like to support your claim that covid vaccine mandates as tanking recruiting? Using that google thing, perhaps? Here's two articles, and I don't see "vaccine" listed once in either by using CTL+F. 

https://www.moaa.org/content/publications-and-media/news-articles/2022-news-articles/facing-a-perfect-storm-the-military-recruiting-crisis/https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/02/23/what_the_data_says_about_the_militarys_recruiting_crisis_883427.html

But that won't stop you from blaming it on vaccine mandates with no support whatsoever. 

I don't know what school mandates you're talking about. Perhaps I've missed other states, but the covid vaccine isn't mandatory in Texas schools. So now it's not really about a vaccine mandate, as you claimed. 
 

Edited April 26, 2023 by SydneyCarton

[SydneyCarton 48108]

24 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

Are you serious?  You think there has to be a federal mandate for someone to be against it?  

Can someone be against this or is an opinion not allowed because it was blocked by the court?

https://apnews.com/article/vaccine-requirement-biden-covid-fifth-circuit-74ae504966aaf5239a42cc3e677182b4

People can be against all kinds of things. Ideas, actions etc. But that fucktard is citing ACTUAL VACCINE MANDATES that did not exist as something that caused REAL HARM to people. That, specifically, is the problem here. He cited vaccine mandates SPECIFICALLY in the original post that sent us down this rabbit hole. I guess he was trying to discuss government job mandates, but didn't specify, as he made it sound like people were kicking down doors and getting jabbed against their will. I'd love to see some numbers and statistics on all the people who lost their jobs because they refused to get a covid vaccine. 

Freedom of choice is not freedom from consequences. That has always been the case in this world, and while it has always shifted, only recently has a complete rejection of change resulted on widespread fucking bellyaching and refusal to accept any change or compromise. I guess I can use that line to bring this back to population decline, and the shifting social change in the views of LGBTQ. 

[Neonmoon 38129]

12 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

Are you serious?  You think there has to be a federal mandate for someone to be against it?  

Can someone be against this or is an opinion not allowed because it was blocked by the court?

https://apnews.com/article/vaccine-requirement-biden-covid-fifth-circuit-74ae504966aaf5239a42cc3e677182b4

Anti-Vaccine and Anti-Mandate are the same fucking thing you dumb motherfuckers.

Name one person that has been forced to get a vaccine. Not one person. You don’t like that you were required to choose between the vaccine and your job, or the vaccine and school. BOO FUCKING HOO. God, this wold is full of the biggest entitled pussies. Believing your kid should get the measles vaccine while believing parents should have the choice to send their kids to school without the measles vaccine doesn’t mean your pro-vaccine and Anti-Mandate, it means you’re fucking stupid and don’t understand how vaccines work. 

[hornbri 1399]

1 hour ago, Helobious said:

The “population crisis” is such a fucking joke and idiots like Mullet and hornbri fall for it easily because they live in a bubble. Ever heard of chatGPT? AI? Automation? We no longer need near the amount of humans we once did to maintain economic output or a functioning society. 
 

Also holy fuck at thinking 20% of gen z is homosexual. Nowhere even fucking close. We are were we because lots of straight people stopped having kids, not because of some increase in gay people.

I am not sure what bubble you live in but acknowledging that population levels in parts of the world are declining, understating what those reasons are, and how we can offset them through things like AI is the whole fucking point of the thread. I never called it a crisis (and the thread title doesn’t call it a crisis). 

And how did you call it a “fucking joke” and then right away say “We are were we because lots of straight people stopped having kids” so yes there is some population issue?

[Mullet Free 40]

36 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

You have google as well, and I'm not seeing any evidence supporting your claims. Just the use of slanting verbiage like "EXTREMELY SUSPECT CDC/FDA rulings." I'll assume you aren't referencing Desantis's surgeon general falsifying a Covid safety study. 

Would you like to support your claim that covid vaccine mandates as tanking recruiting? Using that google thing, perhaps? Here's two articles, and I don't see "vaccine" listed once in either by using CTL+F. 

https://www.moaa.org/content/publications-and-media/news-articles/2022-news-articles/facing-a-perfect-storm-the-military-recruiting-crisis/https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/02/23/what_the_data_says_about_the_militarys_recruiting_crisis_883427.html

But that won't stop you from blaming it on vaccine mandates with no support whatsoever. 

I don't know what school mandates you're talking about. Perhaps I've missed other states, but the covid vaccine isn't mandatory in Texas schools. So now it's not really about a vaccine mandate, as you claimed. 
 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/09/09/executive-order-on-requiring-coronavirus-disease-2019-vaccination-for-federal-employees/
 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/04/fact-sheet-biden-administration-announces-details-of-two-major-vaccination-policies/
 

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2724982/biden-to-approve-austins-request-to-make-covid-19-vaccine-mandatory-for-service/
 

As far as schools go, California had a statewide school mandate. I think D.C. Other districts on a smaller level around embraced it. Many colleges and universities. Some just dropped then when the emergency status was finally dropped. 
 

Any discussion of suspect CDC/FDA policies is definitely beyond the scope of this thread. 
 

As far as the military goes, I’ll go get some numbers, but the highest proportion of our military is traditionally young men from the South. Which adults had the lowest vaccination rates? Young southern men. Sure they finally dropped the mandate, but that trust is damaged. Seems self explanatory, but maybe I can find a survey for you where that is explicitly stated.