Good win by Sark today.

[Bevo 13905]

6 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

He was saving the brilliant play calls for OU?

We better be all wishbone on our first td drive.

[USNALonghorn 5191]

At the time I was all for going for it on 4th. However, I was disappointed we gave the ball to Bijan on that play. The entire planet saw it coming. Also, at that point in the game he had 30 carries under his belt and had been the primary workhorse during that drive. He is undoubtedly the best player on our offense and team, but I see RoJo better suited for a short yardage situation, especially when you factor in fatigue. I understand the sentiment about keeping your best player off the field. You can still have Bijan in a two RB set or lined up wide as a distraction.
 

Another alternative we could have gone with when it was 3rd and goal from about the two yard line, is having Casey pull the hand off. Hindsight being 20/20, I actually would prefer to have seen the QB keeper. Either way, I’m no offensive coordinator, I just expect a little more creativity from Sark. (Maybe dial up the Statue of Liberty with K. Rob screaming for the corner of the end zone?)

 

All of that being said, I can see the argument for taking the field goal. A 15 point lead is still technically a two score game, but there is much more pressure on TCU having to score two TDs and make a 2pt conversion just to tie the game. I still prefer the more aggressive approach we saw in the game, with a little more creativity.

[gmr548 16703]

It's simple. The odds of scoring on 4th and Goal on the 1 with Bijan should be about 80%.
The odds of making the field goal ,about 95%. 
 
The odds of winning the game, up 12, about 80%
The odds of winning the game up 15, about 90%
The odds of winning the game, up 19, about 99%
 
There's only a slightly lower chance of success on the play, with a much bigger payoff. 
 

The odds of winning between 12 and 15 are probably closer because of the field position. TCU gives up the three points, but it remains a two possession game and they get the ball at the 25 or 30 as opposed to their own 1.

[idigTexas 2332]

I'm in the "going for it was the right call" camp.  While I wish we had scored there, I'm not as upset as some about the play itself.  If we had tried play action, run/pass option, or some other deceptive ploy and it failed, you'd have just as many or more people questioning why we didn't just give the ball to Bijan, who was dominating. 

This was game 4 in Sark's tenure as coach.  I still expect that there is a lot of work to be done and lessons to learn.  I'm just glad we are quibbling about how we won rather than why we lost.      

[boilerhorn 1638]

1 hour ago, idigTexas said:

I'm just glad we are quibbling about how we won rather than why we lost.      

This.  Around this time last year, Texas had just survived a precarious OT win over TTU, and a turtled loss to TCU.  I prefer where we are now. 

 

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

The odds of winning between 12 and 15 are probably closer because of the field position. TCU gives up the three points, but it remains a two possession game and they get the ball at the 25 or 30 as opposed to their own 1.

Pro Football reference website has a win probability calculator.  While it largely uses NFL info for its metrics, it cannot be that far off. 

• Up 12, 4th-1 at 1, 9:32 left ->99.7%
• Up 12, TCU 1-10 at 1, 9:32 left -> 98.5%
• Up 15, TCU 1-10 at 1, 9:32 left -> 99.7%
• Up 19, TCU 1-10 at 1, 9:32 left -> 100% (hard to believe)

The ESPN tracker showed 98% on 4-1 and 97.1% when TCU got the ball.  Subtle differences in %-ages are likely due to the fact that college football stops the clock at first downs.

That all said, going for the TD is the right call.

Edited October 4, 2021 by boilerhorn

[Burt Macklin 19230]

I don’t have a problem going for it on the 4th down, but similar to Herman last year, the play calling was atrocious. This OL can’t block for power, so running it up the gut repeatedly at a critical spot like that is just a bad idea. Sark did the same thing on that 4th and short against Arky where we never had a chance.
 

 He has to get more creative in critical short yardage situations. Especially if he knows he’s going for it on 4th, then he should’ve done something to get Casey on the edge with the option to pass or run it in on third down. 
 

Bijan also screwed up the 4th down run a bit too. He was too hesitant. If he puts his head down and barbells through, he probably gets the TD. 

Edited October 4, 2021 by Burt Macklin

[honolulu horn 6239]

We should not have gone for 2 earlier. If we kicked the regular PAT, then we kick the field goal later and go up by 16. 

Also I like the idea of running Keilan around on a sweep in that situation. 

[The Earl of Texas 3214]

On 10/3/2021 at 9:52 AM, Js1 said:

 

Like the enthusiasm but don’t understand why it needs to be binary. We should expect to beat them, but thanks to some donkey HCs, we haven’t.

Its ok to critique the way a team wins, especially one with our expectations. But yes, good win for Sark and I liked his comments on the game too.

[markstanco 12804]

On 10/2/2021 at 11:19 PM, ATLLonghorn said:

Any time you can go from a two score game to a two score game you gotta do it.

It would have been a 15 point game which you have to convert a 2 pt conversion as well.  

[Mitch Cumsteen 18963]

I don't have a problem with him going for it. I would have kicked the PAT earlier, but it's not a horrible decision either way. You can quibble with the strategy and you can quibble with the play call(s) or execution, but I do like that he was putting faith in his team. It was the right message to send.

All that said, the game should have never been that close. Terrible red zone execution all day, lots of miscues and mistakes, and still... TCU never had the ball with a chance to take the lead after a few minutes into the third quarter IIRC. We've had to grind out and grip so many games like this over the Herman era and lost a bunch of them, that it's good to see them on the right side of this and play winning football. This type of game probably does more for the team going forward than blowing out Rice or Tech by 5 TD's. Lots of teachable moments and a big dose of humility after a tough road win are good things. Now let's go fuck Oklahoma up.

[SEC 1174]

Sark has started to win me over here lately. I really like how his offense looks, and I like his demeanor as a coach. He seems to understand his flaws as a person and has worked to change them, and I feel like that bleeds over into his coaching style. He doesn't seem arrogant or like he has a huge ego. He seems to accept that doing things right takes a ton of work and I think the team is reflecting that.

I am way more hyped for this Saturday than I had been since any red river shootout under Tom Herman or Charlie Strong.

[BurntOrange&White 41967]

21 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

Bijan also screwed up the 4th down run a bit too. He was too hesitant. If he puts his head down and barbells through, he probably gets the TD. 

I'm always a big fan of going up over the top because it looks badass.

[DigglerontheHoof 21561]

26 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I'm always a big fan of going up over the top because it looks badass.

Yes it does

[Horns RD Standard 76]

On 10/3/2021 at 12:57 PM, Hornbeliever said:

Exactly.  2 to 3 scores, take the points for sure .  But as much as everyone wants to criticize, we had hot hand at RB and our defense had looked pretty good for 2.5 consecutive quarters at that time.  99 yard drive seemed much harder based on recent events than the hot butter knife express it actually turned out to be.  I ain't mad at decision, little more perturbed at play call.

And my only small small small small complaint about Bijan yesterday was on this run.  If he goes outside instead of turning inside, it's a TD fairly easily.

I'm guessing Sark has intentionally avoided featuring QB called runs for this week. I can see that being the biggest difference in play calling heading into this one...let them load up and focus on Bijon and use Casey's legs to test their ability to adjust in-game! 

[PatSolitanojr 532]

On 10/4/2021 at 9:48 AM, boilerhorn said:

This.  Around this time last year, Texas had just survived a precarious OT win over TTU, and a turtled loss to TCU.  I prefer where we are now. 

 

Pro Football reference website has a win probability calculator.  While it largely uses NFL info for its metrics, it cannot be that far off. 

• Up 12, 4th-1 at 1, 9:32 left ->99.7%
• Up 12, TCU 1-10 at 1, 9:32 left -> 98.5%
• Up 15, TCU 1-10 at 1, 9:32 left -> 99.7%
• Up 19, TCU 1-10 at 1, 9:32 left -> 100% (hard to believe)

The ESPN tracker showed 98% on 4-1 and 97.1% when TCU got the ball.  Subtle differences in %-ages are likely due to the fact that college football stops the clock at first downs.

That all said, going for the TD is the right call.

Shouldn't the second two percentages be calculated from the 25 yard line?

[boilerhorn 1638]

34 minutes ago, PatSolitanojr said:

Shouldn't the second two percentages be calculated from the 25 yard line?

Typo.  They were calculated from the 25, but I typed "1".  From the 1, the win %-ages are 99.9% and 100.0%, respectively.

[Tex Long 4667]

I agree we're likely going to see more QB runs, especially given the nearly complete lack of competence at LT. I'd expect to see more Option-y plays to the right side, with the stepbrothers threatening the corner, receivers headed mid and long, and a jet sweeper coming fast behind. I can also see RoJo at RB in such a mix, with yet another RP decision.

Regardless, if Worthy and Whittington have the dropsies as in Fort Worth, we're going to have to lean hard on the D and Coach K is going to have to finally live up to his billing. 

[GreenspointTexas 9989]

On 10/4/2021 at 10:20 AM, honolulu horn said:

We should not have gone for 2 earlier. If we kicked the regular PAT, then we kick the field goal later and go up by 16. 

Also I like the idea of running Keilan around on a sweep in that situation. 

This. Im more pissed about the 2 point conversion play call than any other call on offense