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This is who Steve Sarkisian is.


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27 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Things are getting better

Same thing was said about Mackovic after McWilliams. Same thing was said about Herman after Strong. Keep on dreamin'. Maybe it will come true. I hope it does. 

 

17 minutes ago, troph said:

I think that’s the comparison

Correct.

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1 minute ago, boilerhorn said:

Not sure what it would cost, but that seems to be at the top end. 

RBs have much lower value in the modern NFL than in the past.  Zero RBs were taken in the first round in 2022, but the top RB was Breece Hall.  Bijan is *much* better than Hall.

In the past few years, the following RBs were taken in the first round:
2022 - none
2021 - Naje Harris (24), Travis Etienne (25)
2020 - Edwards-Hellaire (32)
2019 - Jacobs (24)

Let's assume that Bijan is picked #10 (which is optimistic based on recent draft history).  He gets a 4-yr contract in the $22-24 million range.  IMO, $6mm should easily keep him...
 

That’s ignoring the signing bonus though I think. If he gets offered 5+ and wants to come back good for him. It’s never going to be a better financial situation to stay than leave if you are a first rounder, but we could certainly get the boat close enough to the shore that the right kind of guy might want to come back. 

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9 minutes ago, troph said:

On paper sure but as the game played TTU and oSu should have been wins. I’m not saying the Mackovic comparison is correct but until SS breaks out it’s compelling. And NIL might make SS more successful just because. But a play caller HC who has never broken out of the 7-9 win range sounds awfully a lot like mackovic. I personally don’t know and don’t want to waste much energy thinking about it though I do expect if Texas wins it all it will be the players overcoming coaching deficiencies because what we’ve seen doesn’t inspire saban or Kirby smart like confidence. 

Mackovic was at Texas SS was at Washington. That matters. 

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7 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

Mackovic was at Texas SS was at Washington. That matters. 

He was at USC too and Lincoln Riley year 1 is in the CFP hunt. Texas and NIL may very well get SS over the hump. Two years in to the experiment he’s still range bound and not without justifiable rationale. let’s see what happens in year 3 and 4.  

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42 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

And that's stupid.  Mackovic gave no shits about defense.  He pillaged his defensive roster to put more athleticism on the offense.

Sark has helmed a major turnaround on defense.  In 2021, we were #99 in total defense.  This year, we're #30.  That didn't come at any signifcant expense to the offense, either -- last year we were #18, this year we're #22 (with a frosh QB).

Things are getting better.  Stop being a bitch.

That is all correct and lucidly stated.

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I mean, I talked about this on the recruiting thread a couple months ago, but that’s literally a no brainer offer if you think he’s the difference between a national title and not. I personally don’t think he is, and with Roshon being 85% as good and a third round guy it would make more sense to pay him 3M or something, but if the line continues to improve and Ewers improves and we add a couple dangerous receivers the RB’s on campus and being recruited will be plenty good enough. All that should cost less than paying Bijan 8M, but you miss out on ancillary benefits like a Heisman hype/campaign if you think that’s important, which maybe it is and maybe it isn’t. 
 
With aggy considering investing 90M in getting rid of their staff it shows a luxury splurge that’s timed correctly could make such a decision make
sense, Financially. 
 
At any rate- if you look at all 4 of the guys that got actually carried their YPC average is all pretty similar (I think Bijans is actually the lowest). Like in the Nba being a 40% shooter on volume is a skill in and of itself, but I see no reason to believe we won’t run for 2,000 plus yards next year if we stick with it. It will just likely be more of a committee type thing. 

I liked your thoughts, literally.

However May I suggest never comparing aggy financial decisions to justify purchases ever again?
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Imma drop it.  I don’t think wins over baylor and Kansas tells me that sark is the guy but at this point I’ll take 8-4. We’re three games better than last year and that’s improvement.  Now I don’t think you should be let off the hook because you set the bar low but no doubt he deserves next year.  Long term I’m not sure he’s the guy  but he’s fine for now

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13 minutes ago, troph said:

He was at USC too and Lincoln Riley year 1 is in the CFP hunt. Texas and NIL may very well get SS over the hump. Two years in to the experiment he’s still range bound and not without justifiable rationale. let’s see what happens in year 3 and 4.  

Good lord.  Do your homework.  Sark took over for a 0-12 UDub team and got them to 5-7 in year 1.  Finished up at 8-4.  Not mind-blowing, but by definition a "good job".  He was 10-4 at USC and then got fired at 3-2 for being a drunk.  He rebuilt himself and got the gold standard rec from Nick Saban.  

To equate him to John Fucking Mackovic at this point is asinine.  For starters, he's not a prick, which leads him to be able to run circles around Mackovic, who could never fit in with HS coaches in this state.

Edited by jimmyjazz
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6 minutes ago, troph said:

He was at USC too and Lincoln Riley year 1 is in the CFP hunt. Texas and NIL may very well get SS over the hump. Two years in to the experiment he’s still range bound and not without justifiable rationale. let’s see what happens in year 3 and 4.  

His only full season at USC was after they had lost 30 scholarships for the Bush incident. Even still they won 9. Everyone likes to say he never won 9 at Washington but only because he didn't coach the bowl game after taking the USC job. They still won the bowl game with their QB coach as interim, so I give it to him. 

  We all know why Riley is winning at USC and it isn't because he won with the players already at USC. He brought his own players, including his 5 star QB that had a season starting already in LR's system. 

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7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Good lord.  Do your homework.  Sark took over for a 0-12 UDub team and got them to 5-7 in year 1.  Finished up at 8-4.  Not mind-blowing, but by definition a "good job".  He was 10-4 at USC and then got fired at 3-2 for being a drunk.  He rebuilt himself and got the gold standard rec from Nick Saban.  

To equate him to John Fucking Mackovic at this point is asinie.

I’m not I’m saying it’s a good comparison or not I’m saying why the comparison was made. Mackovic took over for McWilliams, he did well, lasted quite a while. SS may not be Mackovic but he’s compared to him to date because of his mediocre success not because Mackovic didn’t give a shit about defense. Don’t forget Mackovic won the last SWC and first Big 12 conference championships, he wasn’t the worst coach in history he just wasn’t ever going to win it all.
 

and again, I don’t give a shit. I was clarifying *someone else’s* argument. SS will show us who he is definitively within the next 2 years. I’m happy to wait and see, done prognosticating, done believing, done dogging him or anyone else too. 2 years will come and go faster than we can imagine.

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19 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s ignoring the signing bonus though I think. If he gets offered 5+ and wants to come back good for him. It’s never going to be a better financial situation to stay than leave if you are a first rounder, but we could certainly get the boat close enough to the shore that the right kind of guy might want to come back. 

That's also ignoring the fact any NIL deal would be for 1 year vs 4 in the NFL, plus endorsements he'd be getting in the NFL, starting the clock on free agency, risk of injury etc.

Tldr- absent some 30mm nil deal there is no way we even get close to shore, financially speaking.  He's going pro, as he certainly should.

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5 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

His only full season at USC was after they had lost 30 scholarships for the Bush incident. Even still they won 9. Everyone likes to say he never won 9 at Washington but only because he didn't coach the bowl game after taking the USC job. They still won the bowl game with their QB coach as interim, so I give it to him. 

  We all know why Riley is winning at USC and it isn't because he won with the players already at USC. He brought his own players, including his 5 star QB that had a season starting already in LR's system. 

Riley is a top 5 coach in CFB that was known before he went to USC. He’s winning because he’s at the top of the profession. 

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5 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

That's also ignoring the fact any NIL deal would be for 1 year vs 4 in the NFL, plus endorsements he'd be getting in the NFL, starting the clock on free agency, risk of injury etc.

Tldr- absent some 30mm nil deal there is no way we even get close to shore, financially speaking.  He's going pro, as he certainly should.

Nah. It’s not like the NFL contract won’t be there next year. You are overstating the differences.

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My main point is this:  I'm not sure Sark has the blind spot people think he has.  Baylor is a decent or better team.  Dave Aranda is definitely a good coach.  Sark adjusted -- sure, to the obvious, but come on, Bijan got 29 carries, it's not like he was up for 40 -- and Texas won pulling away.  It shouldn't have been 11, it should have been a14-18 point margin of victory.  We took the virtual knee.

Who predicted that at halftime?  It looked dismal.  Maybe, just maybe, this guy (who is obviously smart) is self-evaluating and learning how to be a tactician besides just being a strategist.  I think he did a great job today.  For all kinds of reasons, he's still pretty new to coaching a team with blue chip talent.  I for one am happy to see how it plays out, and I'll happily admit that when he was hired I did a long extended "WTF"?

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Trying to project Sark's future based on the performance of other coaches is just a dumb way to support a given opinion.  Coaches evolve just like any professional field and the game is also evolving around them.  If it was possible to evaluate a coaching prospect and guarantee consistent playoff-level success at a given program, schools would pay 10's of millions as a finder's fee for that service (a lot cheaper than hiring/firing coaches until the stars align).  I like it when I hear Sark highlighting the things he personally screwed up and needs to improve on.  I know some of that is to deflect from the players, but I believe he is a guy that looks at his own performance with a critical eye to improve.  Sark may never figure out how to be an elite coach, but he might. 

I'm not sold on Sark as the savior of Texas football, but I also wouldn't rule it out and I wouldn't want to start over with anyone else right now.  If I wanted to "cherry pick" some history to support the notion that Sark has potential as a head coach, I'd just compare Saban's record at Michigan State and first year at LSU to Sark's at Washington/USC.  Similar schools with similar resources.  Until Sark's alcohol reboot, the records are almost identical.  Saban never had a 10 win season until he was over 50 (older than Sark).  If we just give Sark a mulligan for last year (since it was his first year back as a head coach), we're trending for a run just like Alabama.  Just to be clear, I'm not saying Sark is the next St. Nick, just highlighting how easy (and stupid) it is to pick some history to support any position you can dream up.   Nobody knows how Sark is going to turn out as a head coach.  If he isn't the guy, we'll eventually move on to another.  This is the way.  

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8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

My main point is this:  I'm not sure Sark has the blind spot people think he has.  Baylor is a decent or better team.  Dave Aranda is definitely a good coach.  Sark adjusted -- sure, to the obvious, but come on, Bijan got 29 carries, it's not like he was up for 40 -- and Texas won pulling away.  It shouldn't have been 11, it should have been a14-18 point margin of victory.  We took the virtual knee.

Who predicted that at halftime?  It looked dismal.  Maybe, just maybe, this guy (who is obviously smart) is self-evaluating and learning how to be a tactician besides just being a strategist.  I think he did a great job today.  For all kinds of reasons, he's still pretty new to coaching a team with blue chip talent.  I for one am happy to see how it plays out, and I'll happily admit that when he was hired I did a long extended "WTF"?

He absolutely adjusted, finally. It was great to watch.

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7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Well, there is risk involved.  That has to be accounted for.

If I were Bijan's advisor, I'd tell him to get the hell out of Austin, pronto.

Sure. But it’s not like he needs an absurd 30M to make it make financial sense which is what inwas responding to. 
It wouldn’t be risk free, but insurance could mitigate a lot of that risk if he wanted to go down that road. I wouldn’t think we’d make the offer and I wouldn’t think he’d take it if we did. 

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1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Sure. But it’s not like he needs an absurd 30M to make it make financial sense which is what inwas responding to. 
It wouldn’t be risk free, but insurance could mitigate a lot of that risk if he wanted to go down that road. I wouldn’t think we’d make the offer and I wouldn’t think he’d take it if we did. 

There's no doubt that NIL should help mitigate some of the early outs.  If insurance is out there, it's now more affordable for them.  I have no idea what a 6 month $30M policy might cost for a running back, but he might make it work.  I definitely get the vibe that he'd rather play than not.

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42 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s ignoring the signing bonus though I think. If he gets offered 5+ and wants to come back good for him. It’s never going to be a better financial situation to stay than leave if you are a first rounder, but we could certainly get the boat close enough to the shore that the right kind of guy might want to come back. 

Those numbers do include the signing bonuses.  There was a major rework of the rookie salary scale a few years back.  Numbers are much lower now, but 100% guaranteed.

2022 Top-5 picks got 4 years for $31-$37 - including all bonuses.  For reference the top RB in 2021 (Harris) received 4-$12mm. 

Yes - there is risk if he stays and the numbers are 100% guaranteed.  Unless he projects to the 2nd round (he should not), Bijan should go to the NFL.

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Insurance used to be severely limited by the NCAA what’s the max coverage he can get now?

if it’s enough, I’d say $3-4m NIL plus a proper policy and staying could be an ok idea. I’d leave. Hook ‘em.

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Progress is progress despite some of the problems.

Next year is the year for Sark to really show if he’s got it or not. He will have a lot of holes to fill on the roster but it will be a full offseason for QB1 and a year more experience for the oline. If we regress or stick at 8-4 again I think that’s a problem. We should be looking to win the conference outright.

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As much as I’d love for bijan to stay, there’s no way he should.  I say that with zero knowledge on insurance policies / NIL potential but from my view, why risk ruining an awesome thing?  

DKR chanting his name at end of game today was one of my favorite moments in my 12 years of going to games.  Go get paid (more) and make us proud, Bijan.

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@blutow kind of nailed it above.  Amazing that so many believe that coaches can never improve over time.  Drunk Sark was "Seven Win Steve", so he'll always be "seven win Steve".   

Just going out on a limb, but maybe coaches can improve over time.  This being the first time Sober Steve is a head coach,  he is making some mistakes but seems to be learning from them and improving (5 wins to 8 and possibly more).  He made some excellent coaching hires, which I think shows that those guys believe in him - I don't think Bo or Flood come with him if they only saw 7 wins on the reg for him.

He may or may not be the guy, but assuming he'll never improve over his drunken history seems shortsighted.  I'm more hopeful he'll follow a Dabo trend (although more quickly) and build a powerhouse.  

 

 

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I never said we should go back 25+ years. I said that Sark is Mackovic 2.0 or worse (McWilliams). Supposed offensive whiz, great wins, inexplicable losses, baffling game plans, and so on. Watching the last two years is like going back 25-30 years. And we will repeat that era all over again for the next few years. 

Just. Shut. The. Fuck. Up.
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It’ll be interesting to return to this thread next season. Love the aggy callouts because I’m not buying into Sark’s bullshit 8-4 season. Dude is a loser at being a HFC and always will be. There is literally nothing that will change that and those hoping it will are simply wishcasting. I guess the last 15 years of wandering the desert have hardened my psyche about anything Texas football. 
 

As a fellow recovering drunk- I am however, very happy he is sober and wish him nothing but success for the rest of his tenure. Onward.

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1 minute ago, Loop 1604 said:

It’ll be interesting to return to this thread next season. Love the aggy callouts because I’m not buying into Sark’s bullshit 8-4 season. Dude is a loser at being a HFC and always will be. There is literally nothing that will change that and those hoping it will are simply wishcasting. I guess the last 15 years of wandering the desert have hardened my psyche about anything Texas football. 
 

As a fellow recovering drunk- I am however, very happy he is sober and wish him nothing but success for the rest of his tenure. Onward.

Next year: “The conference is down, so of course Sarkisian did better, but it won’t last.”

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15 minutes ago, Loop 1604 said:

It’ll be interesting to return to this thread next season. Love the aggy callouts because I’m not buying into Sark’s bullshit 8-4 season. Dude is a loser at being a HFC and always will be. There is literally nothing that will change that and those hoping it will are simply wishcasting. I guess the last 15 years of wandering the desert have hardened my psyche about anything Texas football. 
 

As a fellow recovering drunk- I am however, very happy he is sober and wish him nothing but success for the rest of his tenure. Onward.

"I'm not buying into Sark's 8-4 bullshit"

Kansas State loses and we beat TCU in a rematch- "I'm not buying into Sark's 9-4 bullshit" 

  We win the bowl game- "I'm not buying into Sark's 10-4 bullshit"

  <surly>

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It’ll be interesting to return to this thread next season. Love the aggy callouts because I’m not buying into Sark’s bullshit 8-4 season. Dude is a loser at being a HFC and always will be. There is literally nothing that will change that and those hoping it will are simply wishcasting. I guess the last 15 years of wandering the desert have hardened my psyche about anything Texas football. 
 
As a fellow recovering drunk- I am however, very happy he is sober and wish him nothing but success for the rest of his tenure. Onward.

Obviously, you need a drink
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22 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

"I'm not buying into Sark's 8-4 bullshit"

Kansas State loses and we beat TCU in a rematch- "I'm not buying into Sark's 9-4 bullshit" 

  We win the bowl game- "I'm not buying into Sark's 10-4 bullshit"

  <surly>

Now THAT is wishcasting.

 

9-4 bullshit whatever, all of the in-conference losses on this schedule could have been schemed to wins by most of the drunk fucks posting in this thread.  Sark's a perennial loser for failing to adjust and has zero 'killer instinct.'  We get bent by the officials over every game and Sark is on the sideline, chewing Xanax.

Fuck Chip Kelly, but he's got some asshole instinct I want to see on our sideline.  If Sark isn't gonna be that guy, he needs to keep swallowing Xanax and hire Jimmy Lake. 

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1 hour ago, troph said:

Pretty much 90% of this site is maybe / maybe not re SS and 95% of us want him to be the guy because he’s pretty likable. Very few are hell bent on his demise and only a couple think his national title at Texas is a foregone conclusion. 

I'd love for Sark to be the guy.  But I'm not 50/50 on whether, if I were betting, he is the guy.  I'd say it's like 10% he is the guy.  If he wins the conference next year, or comes close (e.g., losing a close one in the championship to a better team), then I'll happily admit I was wrong.  He seems like a coach that is always going to have at least 2-3 brainfart, wtf losses every year.  

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5 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

I'd love for Sark to be the guy.  But I'm not 50/50 on whether, if I were betting, he is the guy.  I'd say it's like 10% he is the guy.  If he wins the conference next year, or comes close (e.g., losing a close one in the championship to a better team), then I'll happily admit I was wrong.  He seems like a coach that is always going to have at least 2-3 brainfart, wtf losses every year.  

It was 1-2 at best this year. I get the standard is win them all but TCU and Bama are legit top 7 teams. Tech was 100% BS and while Texas shoulda beat oSu, on the road top 10 team at the time it wasn’t entirely unexpected. In reality this should have been a 9-3 team. Doesn’t fully disprove your points and again I’m here just waiting to see but he was pretty far from 3 wtf losses this year. And I totally get the position that he’s probably not the guy. So I’m not telling you your conclusion is wrong. I don’t fucking know. 

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I’d like to see one season where Sark has competent quarterback play that’s able to run the offense he wants before we write him off.  He obviously hasn’t had that and has had to adjust and dumb it down and that hasn’t even worked because the quarterbacks couldn’t do that still.  Thompson even being hurt half the season last year was actually running the passing offense arguably better last year overall then we did this year.  Ewers progresses or Arch is actually good and the offense will be humming.  If defense takes another step forward also, this team will be really good.  

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