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This is who Steve Sarkisian is.


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All or nothing much?  False dichotomy much?
 
Play calling at times was a problem. Not putting young players in better positions to succeed with his calls. Not leaning on his stars in ways that increase chances to succeed. In game management. Personnel decisions. Not every stall was due to penalties or dumb decisions.  
 
what’s his grade for this season?  I said C, you’re arguing with me it must be higher. Do tell. 

All or nothing much? No, not every stall was penalties and dumb decisions. Not every drive for anyone is a scoring drive, though.

Is the standard “no punts absent penalties or dumb decisions” or it’s problematic?
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4 minutes ago, Doc Daneeka said:


All or nothing much? No, not every stall was penalties and dumb decisions. Not every drive for anyone is a scoring drive, though.

Is the standard “no punts absent penalties or dumb decisions” or it’s problematic?

Where did I all or nothing in that post? I didn’t.  Creating a strawman to argue on a message board isn’t worth my time. This back and forth is worse than the CR tbqh.

3 minutes ago, Doc Daneeka said:


We clearly don’t agree on why, though, but that’s unlikely to happen, apparently.

Ok. Have a great day! 

Edited by troph
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3 minutes ago, troph said:

Where did I all or nothing in that post? I didn’t. 

"Not every stall was due to penalties or dumb decisions."

I just typed it, so there may be some holes or scenarios not considered.

 

 

Sarkisian 2023 Grading Expectations


I don't support grade inflation. A "C" is average. Acceptable. Meh. 


A+: National Championship

A: Playoff appearance

A-: Big 12 Championship with bowl win
***

B: Big 12 Championship with bowl loss
***

C+: 2 losses with no Big 12 Championship game [E.g. 2 conference teams with < 2 losses]

C :Big 12 Championship Game

C-: 3 losses with no Big 12 Championship game [E.g. Lose to Alabama and 2 conference teams with < 2 losses]
***

D : 4 losses

F: 5+ losses
 

Edited by Doc Daneeka
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25 minutes ago, Doc Daneeka said:

How many of the times his offense disappeared for long stretches involved penalties putting the O behind the chains or mistakes that erased successful plays?

If he doesn’t get 9 wins next season, that’s a D or an F, imo. 

So the team lacks discipline.

If he doesn't win 10 games next year that's D or F. 

It's year 3. All the players on the roster are his now essentially. No more fucking excuses.

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Just now, BurntOrange&amp;White said:

So the team lacks discipline.

If he doesn't win 10 games next year that's D or F. 

It's year 3. All the players on the roster are his now essentially. No more fucking excuses.

My point of view on 2023…


A+: National Championship

A: Playoff appearance

A-: Big 12 Championship with bowl win
***

B: Big 12 Championship with bowl loss
***

C+: 2 losses with no Big 12 Championship game [E.g. 2 conference teams with < 2 losses]

C :Big 12 Championship Game

C-: 3 losses with no Big 12 Championship game [E.g. Lose to Alabama and 2 conference teams with < 2 losses]
***

D : 4 losses

F: 5+ losses
 

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16 minutes ago, Doc Daneeka said:

 

My point of view on 2023…


A+: National Championship

A: Playoff appearance

A-: Big 12 Championship with bowl win
***

B: Big 12 Championship with bowl loss
***

C+: 2 losses with no Big 12 Championship game [E.g. 2 conference teams with < 2 losses]

C :Big 12 Championship Game

C-: 3 losses with no Big 12 Championship game [E.g. Lose to Alabama and 2 conference teams with < 2 losses]
***

D : 4 losses

F: 5+ losses
 

10 regular season wins minimum. No one in the big 12 is unbeatable next year, even with the new additions coming over. 

Cincinnati will have a new coach but will be a team to watch depending on how they take to their new HC culture

BYU meh

Houston won't be very good

UCF might be a team to watch if they're on our regular season schedule. 


As far as current members:

TCU loses a ton - Only singling them out for their success this year

Kansas State will likely be favorite to win big 12 IMO.

Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State - probably above average, decent

Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, West Virginia - meh

 

 

So Kansas State, Cincy, UCF are 3 teams, if scheduled would be a toss up in selecting as far as conference play goes.

 

OOC - Bama


But I'm sure we will absolutely lose a game or 2 we should not



 

13 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Or 10M for this guy.  Low T champion of the world.  

53E3311D-A471-47E8-9483-238E842BDF6C.jpeg

If that bitch out west was smart he'd be doing everything he can to poach that Iowa State DC.

Edited by BurntOrange&White
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16 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

10 regular season wins minimum. No one in the big 12 is unbeatable next year, even with the new additions coming over. 

Cincinnati will have a new coach but will be a team to watch depending on how they take to their new HC culture

BYU meh

Houston won't be very good

UCF might be a team to watch if they're on our regular season schedule. 


As far as current members:

TCU loses a ton - Only singling them out for their success this year

Kansas State will likely be favorite to win big 12 IMO.

Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State - probably above average, decent

Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, West Virginia - meh

 

 

So Kansas State, Cincy, UCF are 3 teams, if scheduled would be a toss up in selecting as far as conference play goes.

 

OOC - Bama


But I'm sure we will absolutely lose a game or 2 we should not



 

If that bitch out west was smart he'd be doing everything he can to poach that Iowa State DC.

The teams that don’t lose a game they shouldn’t are the exception. Literally almost everyone does and this shouldn’t surprise anyone. A team with a 90% chance to win each game has a less than 1/3 chance of going 12-0.

A C, passing grade, basically starts with being in the Big 12 championship game, imo. 

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8 minutes ago, Doc Daneeka said:

The teams that don’t lose a game they shouldn’t are the exception. Literally almost everyone does and this shouldn’t surprise anyone. A team with a 90% chance to win each game has a less than 1/3 chance of going 12-0.

A C, passing grade, basically starts with being in the Big 12 championship game, imo. 

10 regular season wins minimum.

That is a potential loss to Bama + 1 conference loss.

Or undefeated in non conference + 2 conference losses.

Either one of those scenarios gets you to the Big 12 championship, the second one obviously is a tougher path depending on how conference play shakes out for everyone. 

Year 3 is the show me year. going 8-4, 9-3 in year 3 is laughable with the talent on the roster now.

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5 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

10 regular season wins minimum.

That is a potential loss to Bama + 1 conference loss.

Or undefeated in non conference + 2 conference losses.

Either one of those scenarios gets you to the Big 12 championship, the second one obviously is a tougher path depending on how conference play shakes out for everyone. 

Year 3 is the show me year. going 8-4, 9-3 in year 3 is laughable with the talent on the roster now.

I don’t think 2 conference losses and a loss to Alabama is laughable. It’s not great. It’s about the minimum passing grade, imo, but it’s not laughable. 

Two conference losses probably gets a team to Arlington though, as you say, can be tougher. IMO, getting to Arlington is basically a C. Winning there bumps it to at least a B.

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1 hour ago, Doc Daneeka said:

Yeah, I read it. You don’t hold him accountable for player mistakes… though  player mistakes are a significant factor in why the offense disappeared. So it sounds like you absolutely are holding him accountable for them  

I’d give him a C for 2022. It was meh. Not great, not a disaster. 

Edit: Sanders drop against OSU? Ewers run there being called back? Execution problems?

So…. Middlin?

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4 hours ago, Doc Daneeka said:

 

My point of view on 2023…


A+: National Championship

A: Playoff appearance

A-: Big 12 Championship with bowl win
***

B: Big 12 Championship with bowl loss
***

C+: 2 losses with no Big 12 Championship game [E.g. 2 conference teams with < 2 losses]

C :Big 12 Championship Game

C-: 3 losses with no Big 12 Championship game [E.g. Lose to Alabama and 2 conference teams with < 2 losses]
***

D : 4 losses

F: 5+ losses
 

There's too much variation in how certain results can happen to have such a rigid scale, IMO. I also think the OU result can swing things a little bit. Pretty much everyone can live with this year because of 49-0. If Texas had the exact same record and result, but won in Stillwater instead of Dallas, how would we feel?

Edited by gmr548
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5 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

CDC wanted Dykes

Eltife wanted Sark

Why did CDC concede to the Tyler dwarf and his cronies?

Too much of a diplomat, I guess, but he appeased the money rather than digging in or sticking to his guns. Fund-raising is his first priority, anyway.

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5 hours ago, Doc Daneeka said:

"Not every stall was due to penalties or dumb decisions."

I just typed it, so there may be some holes or scenarios not considered.

 

 

Sarkisian 2023 Grading Expectations


I don't support grade inflation. A "C" is average. Acceptable. Meh. 


A+: National Championship

A: Playoff appearance

A-: Big 12 Championship with bowl win
***

B: Big 12 Championship with bowl loss
***

C+: 2 losses with no Big 12 Championship game [E.g. 2 conference teams with < 2 losses]

C :Big 12 Championship Game

C-: 3 losses with no Big 12 Championship game [E.g. Lose to Alabama and 2 conference teams with < 2 losses]
***

D : 4 losses

F: 5+ losses
 

a Big 12 Championship is at least a B+ in my book regardless of the bowl result.

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4 hours ago, BurntOrange&amp;White said:

10 regular season wins minimum.

That is a potential loss to Bama + 1 conference loss.

Or undefeated in non conference + 2 conference losses.

Either one of those scenarios gets you to the Big 12 championship, the second one obviously is a tougher path depending on how conference play shakes out for everyone. 

Year 3 is the show me year. going 8-4, 9-3 in year 3 is laughable with the talent on the roster now.

  I have seen comments like this for the better part of a decade and I think we've forgotten what championship talent looks like. 30 future NFL players in 05 and we still barely won a championship. We need competent line play on both sides, a running game, a good QB, and some skill players that make plays when its time to make them. This year we had a running game and everything else was mediocre. We were stout against the run but couldn't get to the QB when it really mattered. We had zero big plays in the passing game when we needed them, and none of those dudes were able to turn short balls into long plays. 

  To move forward we have to have a legit pass rush. We have to get better at QB/pass protection, and we have to get more explosive outside. If we can do that we can win the conference and put ourselves in the mix.  

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1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

There's too much variation in how certain results can happen to have such a rigid scale, IMO. I also think the OU result can swing things a little bit. Pretty much everyone can live with this year because of 49-0. If Texas had the exact same record and result, but won in Stillwater instead of Dallas, how would we feel?

Still be a C season, imo. 

If the goal is to win championships, the minimum passing grade at this point puts you in the game to make that happen. If people are happy enough beating OU but not playing for the conference, that’s up to them. 

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19 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Don't forget WR...I mean Zay was the best receiver we had and he can't catch a cold.

The best thing that ever happened to Zay might be coming from Desoto. Cook is a swaggy/cocky bastard that ain't coming here to play school. Until now nobody here has threatened Zay's position as top dog in that room. If Zay stays he will get pushed to keep the number 1 receiver role as well as the NIL money for best receiver. If Zay is competitive he will step it up to stay on the mountain top. Let's hope "little brother" being on campus pushes him to get better. 

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13 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

  I have seen comments like this for the better part of a decade and I think we've forgotten what championship talent looks like. 30 future NFL players in 05 and we still barely won a championship. We need competent line play on both sides, a running game, a good QB, and some skill players that make plays when its time to make them. This year we had a running game and everything else was mediocre. We were stout against the run but couldn't get to the QB when it really mattered. We had zero big plays in the passing game when we needed them, and none of those dudes were able to turn short balls into long plays. 

  To move forward we have to have a legit pass rush. We have to get better at QB/pass protection, and we have to get more explosive outside. If we can do that we can win the conference and put ourselves in the mix.  

All of what you mention is true. But we also have to have a better head coach. 

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43 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

a Big 12 Championship is at least a B+ in my book regardless of the bowl result.

That’s fair, imo. I only split the C because, off the top of my head, Texas could conceivably (I think) end 10-2 and out of the conference championship game. I think 10-2 and out would be better than 9-3 and in, the striving for championships notwithstanding, but I could see an argument for flipping the two. 

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1 minute ago, BurntOrange&amp;White said:

All of what you mention is true. But we also have to have a better head coach. 

  I think the battered fan syndrome is getting to all of us. Some of the best coaches there is literally nothing special about them outside of their ability to find talent. We wandered in the desert for a decade because we weren't loading the cupboards like we used to. This is the first time I can say we are getting top recruits since early Mack. Best QB available? Got em. Best running back? Got em. When's the last time we had a 5 star wideout? When the last time we've had a 5 star lineman? Our recruiting was faltering and it showed in the draft and our dwindling NFL presence. Sark seems to be convincing people who can play anywhere they want that they should play here. We can go around in circles about NIL but I am of the opinion that the top kids are gonna go where they get showcased the best. I think if we keep loading up like this winning is inevitable. 

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6 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

  I think the battered fan syndrome is getting to all of us. Some of the best coaches there is literally nothing special about them outside of their ability to find talent. We wandered in the desert for a decade because we weren't loading the cupboards like we used to. This is the first time I can say we are getting top recruits since early Mack. Best QB available? Got em. Best running back? Got em. When's the last time we had a 5 star wideout? When the last time we've had a 5 star lineman? Our recruiting was faltering and it showed in the draft and our dwindling NFL presence. Sark seems to be convincing people who can play anywhere they want that they should play here. We can go around in circles about NIL but I am of the opinion that the top kids are gonna go where they get showcased the best. I think if we keep loading up like this winning is inevitable. 

 It only people who could play anywhere, but people who know what’s involved in football as a profession and who don’t need NIL. It might be easy enough to bullshit a lot of recruits. There are some who’d know it was bullshit. 

IMO, this is Simms/Redding 2.0, with even stronger support. We’ll see if Sarkisian can stockpile and win or whether the doomsday people are right. It will just take a little while. 

Edited by Doc Daneeka
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1 hour ago, DFW Horn said:

Why did CDC concede to the Tyler dwarf and his cronies?

Too much of a diplomat, I guess, but he appeased the money rather than digging in or sticking to his guns. Fund-raising is his first priority, anyway.

OK, so first of all, zero chance that CDC would choose Dykes, especially with his resume at the time. That is revisionist history. Secondly, the meltdown from the fanbase had he actually done it would have been apocalyptic. It would have been Mike Stoops times ten. 

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13 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

OK, so first of all, zero chance that CDC would choose Dykes, especially with his resume at the time. That is revisionist history. Secondly, the meltdown from the fanbase had he actually done it would have been apocalyptic. It would have been Mike Stoops times ten. 

You're exaggerating, bc not many on this board were excited about Sark at the time.

I don't know what the real story is with CDC's choice for HC, but I can't understand how anyone is enthusiastic about 13-12. Just sayin'.

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17 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

You're exaggerating, bc not many on this board were excited about Sark at the time.

I don't know what the real story is with CDC's choice for HC, but I can't understand how anyone is enthusiastic about 13-12. Just sayin'.

I don’t think anyone is excited about 13-12.

I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to think this board would’ve gone thermonuclear over hiring a guy with this resume:

 

DE95DA56-986D-4D16-9D6B-BC96B8C33B6C.jpeg

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OK, so first of all, zero chance that CDC would choose Dykes, especially with his resume at the time. That is revisionist history. Secondly, the meltdown from the fanbase had he actually done it would have been apocalyptic. It would have been Mike Stoops times ten. 
Agreed. Dykes may have been on the shortlist, but he was never the fallback if Urban said no...which he did, and led to Sark being hired.
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4 hours ago, Thatguy said:

I think the battered fan syndrome is getting to all of us. Some of the best coaches there is literally nothing special about them outside of their ability to find talent.

As a reminder and addition to this point.  Smart is about to play for b2b national titles. 

Smart is far from a good coach.  He was still playing man-2 with cover-grass zones and having his defense swap sides of the field based on strength a few years ago.  He reached out to Todd Orlando to help him modernize his defense. He got humiliated by Tom Herman while having at least a dozen NFLers on his roster. 

But he's really good at using bags to stockpile talent.

Edited by JBJ
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As a reminder and addition to this point.  Smart is about to play for b2b national titles. 
Smart is far from a good coach.  He was still playing man-2 with cover-grass zones and having his defense swap sides of the field based on strength a few years ago.  He reached out to Todd Orlando to help him modernize his defense. He got humiliated by Tom Herman while having at least a dozen NFLers on his roster. 
But he's really good at using bags to stockpile talent.

Yeah, mf is pretty good at calling timeouts too
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Pretty good article on Dykes and how they got to the MNC/CFP and some on Patterson as well:

“As it turns out, this Friday and Saturday in Texas, Mumme and several members of the Air Raid coaching tree will descend on Waco for their biannual Air Raid convention. A certain TCU football coach was scheduled to speak at the event. He now has a scheduling conflict.

“I guess I’m going to let him off this time,” says Mumme.

No member of the Air Raid coaching tree has led his team to a national championship as a head coach. Of all the times to do it, maybe TCU’s magic ride is the one? Rick Dykes can imagine it now, sitting back on that bus, this time pulling away from SoFi Stadium with a national championship trophy resting between him and his brother.

How the hell did we end up here?

“I know my dad will be up there cracking up,” Rick says. “‘Boys, I can’t believe it either.’”

https://www.si.com/.amp/college/2023/01/05/tcu-sonny-dykes-turnaround-cfp-national-title-game
 

I didn’t know they had an air raid convention but it sounds cool. Meeting in Waco doesn’t sound cool. But I guess it’s this weekend…

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23 hours ago, Thatguy said:

  I have seen comments like this for the better part of a decade and I think we've forgotten what championship talent looks like. 30 future NFL players in 05 and we still barely won a championship. We need competent line play on both sides, a running game, a good QB, and some skill players that make plays when its time to make them. This year we had a running game and everything else was mediocre. We were stout against the run but couldn't get to the QB when it really mattered. We had zero big plays in the passing game when we needed them, and none of those dudes were able to turn short balls into long plays. 

  To move forward we have to have a legit pass rush. We have to get better at QB/pass protection, and we have to get more explosive outside. If we can do that we can win the conference and put ourselves in the mix.  

This is not an unreasonable take. I would add the additional need for Sark to improve in-game adjustments. Also, the DB play was better at the end of the season. Continued improvement and some on field leadership there will be necesarry, too. If these thngs come to be and the wins total does not go up, then we need to look at the quality recruiting we are enjoying and decide if there is someone else who can take that talent higher. I don't think its time for that question, but we can't afford for the recruiting to drop off for two or three seasons. 
We've seen that happen over and over. It puts everything back at square 1. I hate square 1.

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Pretty good article on Dykes and how they got to the MNC/CFP and some on Patterson as well:
“As it turns out, this Friday and Saturday in Texas, Mumme and several members of the Air Raid coaching tree will descend on Waco for their biannual Air Raid convention. A certain TCU football coach was scheduled to speak at the event. He now has a scheduling conflict.
“I guess I’m going to let him off this time,” says Mumme.
No member of the Air Raid coaching tree has led his team to a national championship as a head coach. Of all the times to do it, maybe TCU’s magic ride is the one? Rick Dykes can imagine it now, sitting back on that bus, this time pulling away from SoFi Stadium with a national championship trophy resting between him and his brother.
How the hell did we end up here?
“I know my dad will be up there cracking up,” Rick says. “‘Boys, I can’t believe it either.’”
https://www.si.com/.amp/college/2023/01/05/tcu-sonny-dykes-turnaround-cfp-national-title-game
 
I didn’t know they had an air raid convention but it sounds cool. Meeting in Waco doesn’t sound cool. But I guess it’s this weekend…

Maybe they like white chicks.
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Read that Georgia had 73 players who were 4- or 5-star players on the roster the other night. TCU had 13.

Recruiting matters, which is something Sarkisian and his staff appears to be pretty good at so far. I just hope the in-game coaching can ultimately match up to that. I’m ok with where we are after Year 2 with Sark. Check back to see where I am in 24 months. We will have a much better idea then.

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Read that Georgia had 73 players who were 4- or 5-star players on the roster the other night. TCU had 13.

Recruiting matters, which is something Sarkisian and his staff appears to be pretty good at so far. I just hope the in-game coaching can ultimately match up to that. I’m ok with where we are after Year 2 with Sark. Check back to see where I am in 24 months. We will have a much better idea then.
Once you build your program to the level of a Georgia or Alabama, the rosters you roll out just out talent the other teams in 90% of the games. This is what we did in Macks prime. Mack wasn't some great coach. We just had a ton of talent that decade. But it takes awhile to get to that level. Right now with the lack of talent we have, coaching matters a lot in these close games
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On 1/5/2023 at 3:59 PM, Doc Daneeka said:

I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to think this board would’ve gone thermonuclear over hiring a guy with this resume:

Doesn't seem all that much different than Strong, Herman, and Sark's resume. Why would we have gone especially thermonuclear? Especially as his Cal teams beat us.

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10 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:
1 hour ago, C-Man said:
Read that Georgia had 73 players who were 4- or 5-star players on the roster the other night. TCU had 13.

Recruiting matters, which is something Sarkisian and his staff appears to be pretty good at so far. I just hope the in-game coaching can ultimately match up to that. I’m ok with where we are after Year 2 with Sark. Check back to see where I am in 24 months. We will have a much better idea then.

Once you build your program to the level of a Georgia or Alabama, the rosters you roll out just out talent the other teams in 90% of the games. This is what we did in Macks prime. Mack wasn't some great coach. We just had a ton of talent that decade. But it takes awhile to get to that level. Right now with the lack of talent we have, coaching matters a lot in these close games

Development also matters a lot in those close games. TCU was a veteran team. That is how those successful mid-level P5 teams go. You try to work your guys hard so by the time they are Seniors you can have a great year. We'll see how the coaching advantage goes when Dykes doesn't have all those guys next year.

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16 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:
1 hour ago, C-Man said:
Read that Georgia had 73 players who were 4- or 5-star players on the roster the other night. TCU had 13.

Recruiting matters, which is something Sarkisian and his staff appears to be pretty good at so far. I just hope the in-game coaching can ultimately match up to that. I’m ok with where we are after Year 2 with Sark. Check back to see where I am in 24 months. We will have a much better idea then.

Once you build your program to the level of a Georgia or Alabama, the rosters you roll out just out talent the other teams in 90% of the games. This is what we did in Macks prime. Mack wasn't some great coach. We just had a ton of talent that decade. But it takes awhile to get to that level. Right now with the lack of talent we have, coaching matters a lot in these close games

Agreed. Weren't all five of our losses 7 points or less. Once we get the talent figured out, I expect Sark to start rolling out 10-win seasons on talent alone. Whether we collect hardware will depend on the coaching. Can he handle that? Guess we'll see.

 

5 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Doesn't seem all that much different than Strong, Herman, and Sark's resume. Why would we have gone especially thermonuclear? Especially as his Cal teams beat us.

Herman had a 13-1 season with a bowl win over FSU and his Cougars stumbled a little the following year, likely because Herman had checked out knowing he was taking the LSU or Texas job. Herman was OC for a national title winner under Urban Meyer at Ohio State. Charlie Strong took the Texas job fresh off 12-1 and 11-2 seasons at Louisville and was DC for two national championship teams at Florida under Meyer.

Correct me if I'm wrong but Dykes, in all his years as a head or assistant coach, has been part of ONE conference championship in his last season as HC at LaTech.

 

3 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Development also matters a lot in those close games. TCU was a veteran team. That is how those successful mid-level P5 teams go. You try to work your guys hard so by the time they are Seniors you can have a great year. We'll see how the coaching advantage goes when Dykes doesn't have all those guys next year.

100% agree. I expect TCU to slip back to an 8-win season at best in 2023.

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2 hours ago, C-Man said:

Read that Georgia had 73 players who were 4- or 5-star players on the roster the other night. TCU had 13.

Recruiting matters, which is something Sarkisian and his staff appears to be pretty good at so far. I just hope the in-game coaching can ultimately match up to that. I’m ok with where we are after Year 2 with Sark. Check back to see where I am in 24 months. We will have a much better idea then.

Same thoughts.  Let it play out for a minimum of 4 years.  Changing coaches every three years is as idiotic as keep rolling out Freshman QBs every year. The Ewers sucks bring on Manning is an odd take at best. 

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I agree there are warning signs with 7ish win Steve, but there is also some evidence for competence, and there is some evidence he can change. Sometimes even coaches that get blown out by Rice in their second season and finish it .500 in conference end up making offensive adjustments and doing OK. Agree with waiting at least until we see what 2023 season looks like before pulling the plug. Not sure I think full four years can be given if we start to enter a death spiral though.

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