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Kenpom 2021-22

shadow_operative

By shadow_operative
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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Well, I guess he estimates each game in a bubble.  Then also projects out your entire regular season in a separate algorithm?  

13-5 in conference, as he has in the game-by-game...that sounds reasonable.  But we're not losing 4 more games out of conference.  We'll lose at Gonzaga, and then maybe between @Seton Hall or at home versus Tennessee, possibly drop one of those.  But we're not losing 9 games overall before the post-season.  We may drop 9 overall between now and Easter, but I think even that's a stretch.  Not saying we're going to the title game, but I don't see that many losses.  Not that we're so awesome, but our league is top-heavy, our OOC schedule is much easier than usual, and what we lack in upper-tier talent...we make up for with incredible depth...handy when you're playing 3 games in Kansas City in 3 days.  

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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

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2 hours ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

Good question.  I have no idea how one would be able to place a numerical ranking on a team with so much turnover + transfers.

He's historically been pretty good at merging graduating seniors/incoming freshmen with returning cores, but it's a much harder problem in this transfer market.  I don't know that there is a truly objective way to plug a guy you have historical stats on into a different roster and projecting anything of value.

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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

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3 hours ago, Starfleet Command said:

Does Kenpom phase out whatever he uses to form his pre-season projections and, if so, when does that occur?

If I remember correctly he uses a metric to determine when the season stats are meaningful, but I don't think it's game count or calendar time.  I think they are season-only by roughly the start of Big 12 play.

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

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i find it hilariously sad that our adjusted tempo (67.7) is ranked 343rd nationally after one game, and yet the universal response to watching that game was, "much better tempo this year, much more action." amazing how that works when your entire offense isn't predicated on one or two guys dribbling the shot clock out while the other 3-4 stand around the perimeter just watching. 

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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4668

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Kenpom is always a little bit wonky at this time of the year because there's no way Michigan is the #6 team in the country. They aren't even a top 25 team right now. 

Lost to Seton Hall, dominated by Arizona, and Tarleton State gave them everything they could handle last night. 

 

Edited by texasstrong12
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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4668

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Yeah, it's kind of remarkable how similar Schaefer and Beard are. 

There are differences but they're actually very similar coaches. Defensive minded coaches that generate offense through turnovers. Both like to ugly the game up but I don't think Texas fans will care as we saw with Schaefer making the Elite 8 last year. Win and nobody gives a shit. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46094

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51 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

Kenpom currently has us finishing 21-10 (10-8), which probably looks like a 4 seed in the tourney. 

That would be 13-8 going forward from today.  I'd like to think we could do a little better, but it's a stretch.  5 games against teams above us right now (Baylor, KU, Tennessee) plus Tech and the other assorted B12 road battles (at the very least).  Seems pretty on point.

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

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1 hour ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

I don't know that 10-8 with our nonconference schedule will get us a 4 seed, but who knows. 

i think that the league is strong enough to where 10-8 would get this team a favorable ranking. if you have 10 wins in the league then it's a safe bet that at least 8 of them are quality wins. 

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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4668

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4 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

i think that the league is strong enough to where 10-8 would get this team a favorable ranking. if you have 10 wins in the league then it's a safe bet that at least 8 of them are quality wins. 

The top 25 is also wild this year. There are bad losses every night in the top 25. 

Edited by texasstrong12
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Catdaddyhorn

Catdaddyhorn 3447

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We'll see. Historically, 10-8 in our league typically gets you about a 6 to 10 seed, however in 2016 both Iowa St and Baylor got top 5 seeds with a 10-8 record. Of course their SOS was within the top 15 so it helped them much more than ours would this season. 

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ztejas

ztejas 43528

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On 12/19/2021 at 8:35 PM, Catdaddyhorn said:

We'll see. Historically, 10-8 in our league typically gets you about a 6 to 10 seed, however in 2016 both Iowa St and Baylor got top 5 seeds with a 10-8 record. Of course their SOS was within the top 15 so it helped them much more than ours would this season. 

10-8 this year in the B12 will be closer to a 4 seed than a 10 seed. Not saying that will get Texas to the 4 line but it would sure as shit get us better than 10. 

Edited by ztejas
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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

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KU and BU are our last two games. if we are 10-6 heading into those games we'll be ranked pretty highly, and can definitely still get a 4 or 5 seed even if we go 0-2. depending on the conference tourney. if we win either of those game to finish 10-8 and then win two in the conference tourney, that also looks like a 4 or 5 seed. 11 wins and i feel free about a 4 seed. 

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ztejas

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21 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Beard might be a failure at Texas 4-5 years from now but @bitterwhiteguy utter hatred is hilarious. Surprised he hasn't put on some slow jazz, drank some wine, filled the bath tub and slit his wrists by now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm usually not a fan of suicide jokes but he is such a fucking loser that I couldn't help myself but die laughing here.

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Js1

Js1 85526

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7 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Beard might be a failure at Texas 4-5 years from now but @bitterwhiteguy utter hatred is hilarious. Surprised he hasn't put on some slow jazz, drank some wine, filled the bath tub and slit his wrists by now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Finding an opponent 2 days before Christmas Eve last minute seems like a tough job - plus getting them to travel and whatnot.  Texas WBB had to find an opponent on 24 hours notice - I believe we charted their flights from San Diego to Vegas and used our busses to get them to/from their hotel and the arena and airport. 

Apparently there's a Twitter rumor that we "refused" to play Kentucky, who called us because of their game getting cancelled.   Because, y'know, Beard only likes cream puffs and whatnot. *eye roll* 

Edited by Js1
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Js1

Js1 85526

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19 minutes ago, Underdog said:

Even if the twitter rumor were true and I believe it’s not, why would Texas want to give up a Home game to travel to Lexington and vice versa?  Some people just like to bitch for the sake of bitching. 

Exactly.  They don't know the convos - perhaps UK was adamant they were not traveling, so why would Texas give up the home game?  Texas had just gotten back from Vegas - like the excuse the fuck out of them maybe not wanting to turn around and head to Lexington. 

Alabama State had 2 consecutive games cancelled (UCLA and Memphis) and neither was bc of them.  Both needed a game and clearly Alabama State was fine to travel, since they haven't played since December 11.  I'm sure Texas is paying them well to come in and get beat. 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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11-2 in non-conf, 12-6 in conf play and 1-1/2-1 in league tourney.  Guys, that's a helluva lot better than a #5 seed.  With this league ,this year.  Way better.  I don't know how we get there though. 

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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4668

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On 12/21/2021 at 12:07 AM, Firemans4Horn said:

Beard might be a failure at Texas 4-5 years from now but @bitterwhiteguy utter hatred is hilarious. Surprised he hasn't put on some slow jazz, drank some wine, filled the bath tub and slit his wrists by now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BWG’s hate for Beard is irrational and just flat out pathetic at this point. He’s looking for reasons to bitch.  

Edited by texasstrong12
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