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Kenpom 2021-22

shadow_operative

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14,445

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On 12/21/2021 at 12:29 AM, shadow_operative said:

a reminder that BWG physically looks like a mix between Ben Shapiro and Ethan from H3H3. i met him one time, while he spoke to my dad for about 90 seconds, and he literally said "I'm just a white guy..." three different times. he sucks just as bad in person as he does online. 

I met BWG a few years ago. He's as big a dork as you would imagine. My wife was weirded out by him. 

I only talked to him about 30 seconds but I disliked him in that amount of time. It's insane to me that dorks like this get a voice. 

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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4,668

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3 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

Is BWG the same guy that posts here?  He hated Barnes?  And is clearly not a Beard fan - so who does he favor?  Shaka?

BWG loves Shaka. He's practically a Marquette fan now. 

It's a big reason he hates Beard so much. The guy has dug in so deep on Shaka being legit that he's unwilling to admit there might be a better coach for Texas. 

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15 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

BWG loves Shaka. He's practically a Marquette fan now. 

It's a big reason he hates Beard so much. The guy has dug in so deep on Shaka being legit that he's unwilling to admit there might be a better coach for Texas. 

That’s fucking ridiculous. Glad I know that, and really wonder why this guy has any voice. 

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15,932

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you know Shaka, as totally inept and out of his element as he was, really didn't have his teams get blown out a whole lot. in fact the number of close losses where the game was essentially even at the U4 timeout was astounding. from what i've seen from Beard at TTU, it seems like he may have a knack for being the opposite of that- a coach who may not blow teams out of the water, but who routinely wins those games that are still close at the 4 minute mark of the second half. i'll be more than happy to see that play out during this conference season. 

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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4,668

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On 12/21/2021 at 12:16 AM, Catdaddyhorn said:

I figure 12-6 will get us a top 4 or 5 seed. 

T-Rank projects Texas to go 12-6 and historically based on resumes that's on average a 4.4 seed. 

I just wish Texas could replay this Seton Hall game with Disu (who has been our best player by about a mile) and we would be in spectacular position.  

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15,932

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if you look at the Four Factors for conference play you'll see that our eFG% sucks, but that the other three offensive components are all great, which i assume would be a surprise for most Texas fans. our offense might be ugly most of the time, but it's still an efficient offense that we can generally rely on. 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52,512

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On 2/23/2022 at 12:46 AM, shadow_operative said:

if you look at the Four Factors for conference play you'll see that our eFG% sucks, but that the other three offensive components are all great, which i assume would be a surprise for most Texas fans. our offense might be ugly most of the time, but it's still an efficient offense that we can generally rely on. 

It’s just the last step of making the shots the offense generates. It feels like we make a lower % than average at all levels. 

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Js1

Js1 85,375

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34 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

With our remaining 3 games it's tough to slip.  A loss to WVU would probably do it, but we've been hovering around #14 for a while, because (in part) our conference schedule is stout.  Losses to Baylor and Tech just don't move the needle much.

WV fucking sucks.  I will be sorely pissed the fuck off if we lose that game. 

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VaLonghorn99

VaLonghorn99 341

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The last 3 games are in the increasing order of difficulty. 

@ WVA: sold out road game against a bad WVA team. Mountaineers almost beat ISU on the road in their last game and may be believin while at home.

BAylor: last game at the drum against the last year's NC winner who is tough this year as well.

@ KU: on the road against the current conference top team.

All could be called tosdups but we're favored in the first two. Let's win 2 of these but 1 would be acceptable as well.

 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,077

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You look at Texas schedule and there just isn’t a single bad loss on there. The worst was by 1 at home to a KSU team that we just literally gave away, but that’s a top quartile game- right?  
we’ve got only two top 20 wins and if you take it down to top 40 that only goes up to 5. 
This texas team isn’t going to beat itself but I don’t see anything in this schedule that makes me believe we are going to win 2 games in a row in the tournament let alone 4. 
Very happy (orgasmic when considering where we would have been with Shaka) with the way this season played out, slightly disappointed in going 0-4 a against tech and Baylor and not having quite as much upside as I’d hoped for this off-season. 
I love the tournament. I don’t measure coaching ability or program health based upon tournament runs, any one game scenario can lie to you. 
compared to what we would have been without him cleaning up in the transfer portal I will give Beard an A-  I hope, in years I come, that this season would be a B- or C+. It’s better than late era Barnes (or any other coach ever at UT) but not as good as peak Barnes, which is where I hope we get back to. 

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19,037

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18 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You look at Texas schedule and there just isn’t a single bad loss on there. The worst was by 1 at home to a KSU team that we just literally gave away, but that’s a top quartile game- right?  
we’ve got only two top 20 wins and if you take it down to top 40 that only goes up to 5. 
This texas team isn’t going to beat itself but I don’t see anything in this schedule that makes me believe we are going to win 2 games in a row in the tournament let alone 4. 
Very happy (orgasmic when considering where we would have been with Shaka) with the way this season played out, slightly disappointed in going 0-4 a against tech and Baylor and not having quite as much upside as I’d hoped for this off-season. 
I love the tournament. I don’t measure coaching ability or program health based upon tournament runs, any one game scenario can lie to you. 
compared to what we would have been without him cleaning up in the transfer portal I will give Beard an A-  I hope, in years I come, that this season would be a B- or C+. It’s better than late era Barnes (or any other coach ever at UT) but not as good as peak Barnes, which is where I hope we get back to. 

Yeah, the weird part is we’ve had almost no games against teams that would be 4-7 seeds. Tenn is basically the only one, because per KenPom, the B12 has 3 teams in the top 11, us at 15, then ISU is the next team at 39. So we know this team has a low ceiling, but we haven’t got see them up against other good not great teams. 

I do think 2 wins in the tournament is our ceiling, which I’d be extremely happy with, but the main thing is just get that one win, so we don’t have to hear about not winning a tournament game for the last 8 years or whatever it is. Getting that monkey off our back is the biggest priority IMO. 
 

I will say though, bracketology has us at a 5 and we’d play Providence in the second round. They’re currently 36th in KenPom while we’re 15th, so it would be a good seeding for us from that standpoint. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,077

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3 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Yeah, the weird part is we’ve had almost no games against teams that would be 4-7 seeds. Tenn is basically the only one, because per KenPom, the B12 has 3 teams in the top 11, us at 15, then ISU is the next team at 39. So we know this team has a low ceiling, but we haven’t got see them up against other good not great teams. 

I do think 2 wins in the tournament is our ceiling, which I’d be extremely happy with, but the main thing is just get that one win, so we don’t have to hear about not winning a tournament game for the last 8 years or whatever it is. Getting that monkey off our back is the biggest priority IMO. 
 

I will say though, bracketology has us at a 5 and we’d play Providence in the second round. They’re currently 36th in KenPom while we’re 15th, so it would be a good seeding for us from that standpoint. 

Yep. I’m not saying we can’t win 2 games in the tournament- I’m just saying at this point I’d put it at less than a coin flip. 

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8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yep. I’m not saying we can’t win 2 games in the tournament- I’m just saying at this point I’d put it at less than a coin flip. 

Less than 50%, even though it will be two games in which the Longhorns would be favored?

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19,037

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5 minutes ago, slorch said:

Less than 50%, even though it will be two games in which the Longhorns would be favored?

Well, we wouldn’t necessarily be favored in Round 2 if we’re a 5 seed. That’s also just how odds work. Even if you’re a 70% favorite in both games, your odds of winning both is 49%. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45,971

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Moving forward beyond seed is often a function of upsets in your bracket.  Yeah, a 5 seed "should" lose to the 4 seed in the 2nd (real) round.  Weird things happen.

Look at our run to the Final 4 as a #1 seed, which isn't even the best example of what I'm saying, but it's still somewhat illustrative, especially in the Elite Eight:

Round 1:  Beat 16 seed UNC-Asheville

Round 2:  Beat 9 seed Purdue ("should have" played the 8 seed)

Round 3:  Beat 5 seed UConn ("should have" played the 4 seed)

Round 4:  Beat 7 seed Michigan State ("should have" played the 2 seed)

 

If we end up a 5 seed, and advance against the 12 seed, it's not impossible to imagine the 4 seed falling to the 13 seed, which would (theoretically) be a more winnable game, except for the obvious fact that they just beat the 4 seed.

Anyway, I'm calling this season a success.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Why would a 5 seed be "favored" over a 4 seed in Round 2?

Because it’s Providence?

You are right though.  

I still feel pretty good about Texas advancing to the 2nd weekend, regardless.  You hired Beard for this time of the year.  I guess I still believe he’s worth something to that end.

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