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San Antonio Spurs 2021-22 Season Thread - Let's get this play-in shitshiw rolling

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49,243

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How Knicks, Wizards Could Be Crucial in Spurs' Draft Odds

By Josh Paredes      Mar 25, 2022

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There are only nine games left in the regular season for the San Antonio Spurs, and things are getting interesting regarding their immediate and long-term future.

Somehow, the team sits with a 26% chance of a top four pick while simultaneously being just 1.5 games out of an NBA Play-In Tournament spot. It's an unusual state to be in, which has led to arguments about what exactly the Spurs should do to close out their season.

Still, as teams at the bottom of the NBA continue to pile on losses, the concept of tanking is becoming less and less beneficial than it originally was when it comes to NBA Draft Lottery odds.

I've been keeping close tabs on where all four Spurs' picks in 2022 are projected to land, and they've generally been hovering around 8th, 17th, 23rd, and 42nd. While several teams will have an impact on where all of those picks from other teams land, I wanted to focus on two unexpected names: the New York Knicks and Washington Wizards.

Let's start with the Big Apple.

The New York Knicks could help the Spurs two-fold

There are a couple of reasons the Knicks will be a team to watch as the season winds down if you're a Spurs fan. The first is that they're very close in their overall record to the Spurs themselves. As of Friday morning, they're sitting at 31-42 while the Spurs are at 29-44. That's just a two game difference.

That might not seem important since New York is in the Eastern Conference, but where the teams currently hovering in the bottom 30s in wins end up could play a big part in the NBA Draft Lottery. If they remain around where they are and finish with the 7th or 8th-worst record in the league, they'll have at least a 26% chance to move up into the top four and a six percent chance at number one.

Where the odds really start to shift unfavorably in this top-heavy draft is when you finish with the 10th-worst record as opposed to 9th. Then there's another big dip when you finish 11th instead of 10th.

With at least the top four slots in this draft likely to go to very promising prospects, the chance at a top four pick is where you want higher odds. Here are the odds of nabbing one of those spots for all 14 lottery teams, per Tankathon. The worst record is first, and so on. For this data, I used Thursday's projections, since it didn't involve a three-way tie for 10th as Friday's projections do.

1. 52.1%
2. 52.1%
3. 52.1%
4. 48.1%
5. 42.1%
6. 37.2%
7. 32.0%
8. 26.3% (Spurs)
9. 20.3%
10. 13.9% (Wizards)
11. 8.5%
12. 8.0% (Knicks)
13. 4.8%
14. 2.4%

Notice the big drops I mentioned. The Knicks are currently hovering around the 10-12 range, so Spurs fans should be rooting for them to win as much as they can to make sure they don't push their guys down further.

Beyond that, New York can also help San Antonio by finishing ahead of the Lakers in the overall standings. With every team that finishes with a better record than them, the 2nd round pick from Los Angeles owed to San Antonio gets one spot higher.

The Knicks and Lakers tied the season series, so a potential tiebreaker would come down to team records against their own conference.

The Knicks currently have the 12th-easiest remaining schedule in the league. Let's hope they can have some success to close out the season for multiple reasons.

Another team the Spurs should be rooting on for similar reasons: the Washington Wizards.

The Spurs benefit if Washington pulls it together

It hasn't been an easy March for the Washington Wizards, who always tend to have wild games against the Silver and Black. They're just 3-9 this month and have lost eight of their last nine games. If they can pull it together even a little bit over their final 10 games, though, that will help San Antonio.

The Wizards are another team that could potentially fall behind the Spurs if they keep losing while San Antonio makes a push for the play-in. They're currently projected for the 9th pick, which is where the odds of getting a top four pick go from 1-in-5 to about 1-in-7 when going to 10th. If Washington and New York both falter and push the Spurs to 11th, that goes down to about 1-in-13.

The Wizards currently have the 15th-toughest remaining schedule in the NBA, including matchups with Milwaukee, Boston, and Chicago. Still, they have some winnable games versus the Pistons and Magic coming up. As a bonus, if they can somehow upset the streaking Boston Celtics in early April, that could help the Spurs' pick from them improve a bit.

There will certainly be a lot of shuffling in the standings as the season's final weeks play out, and if a couple of struggling East squads can make a push, the Spurs might just reap valuable benefits.

 

Updated Standings

8 SA    31-44  .413   11.5   26.3%  6.0%

9 LAL   31-43  .419   12.0   20.3%  4.5%

10 NO  32-43  .427    12.5  13.9%  3.0%

11 WAS 32-42 .432   13.0    9.4%  2.0%

12 NY   34-42  .447   14.0    7.1%   1.5%

 

Washington and Lakers really sucking in March puts the Spurs in danger of dropping their Top 4 pick odds from  26.3%  to only 9.4%.  

 

 

Edited by LTtxfan
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Radical Larry
Radical Larry

As it should be.

Mitch Cumsteen
Mitch Cumsteen

1. It's bittersweet making the play in. Everyone knows they would be better off long term with a better pick but fuck it. This team has played really hard all season and they deserve some reward. They

kingkoopa6
kingkoopa6

GSG

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ztejas

ztejas 43,467

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23 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

How Knicks, Wizards Could Be Crucial in Spurs' Draft Odds

By Josh Paredes      Mar 25, 2022

 

Updated Standings

8 SA    31-44  .413   11.5   26.3%  6.0%

9 LAL   31-43  .419   12.0   20.3%  4.5%

10 NO  32-43  .427    12.5  13.9%  3.0%

11 WAS 32-42 .432   13.0    9.4%  2.0%

12 NY   34-42  .447   14.0    7.1%   1.5%

 

Washington and Lakers really sucking in March puts the Spurs in danger of dropping their Top 4 pick odds from  26.3%  to only 9.4%.  

 

 

Dude please quit bumping this thread. 

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angelfacedmongoloid

angelfacedmongoloid 80

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It does suck that we're probably losing out on the higher chances in the lottery but its more because the other teams in contention for the play in spot are so shitty (Mainly LA but also New Orleans). The Spurs got the 10th spot last year at 33-39, a .458 record. Right now with the lakers in 10th place they're 31-43, a .419 record. The 9th place team was the Warriors with a .542 record, this year its New Orleans at .427. The bottom of the west is shittier with a lot of teams outright tanking in a way that Pop just won't do.

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nedtugent

nedtugent 28

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swallows returning to mission capistrano....

dogs returning to their vomit....

drunkards hitting TC 'post milk' (pre-pandemic),....

and the vaunted SAS (post TD) making a late run for the 10 seed.....

- ned

somebody spill a beer on me and crack a cascarone on me noggin'

it's fiesta time in SA!!

Edited by nedtugent
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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49,243

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4 hours ago, Radical Larry said:

Celtics clinched a playoff spot, so their first rd pick is officially ours.

It's a shame that the Celtics and Raptors have been two of the hottest team over the last few weeks.  All 3 of the 2022 1st Rd picks for the Spurs may each potentially drop 2 to 3 more spots worse than where they were projected 3-4 weeks ago.

Hopefully with the Spurs 1st Rd Lottery pick they get lucky and end up in the Top 3 or 4 picks...  

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