2021-22 Houston Rockets Season Thread: Sucking with a Purpose

[Murfdogg21 4447]

Sucks if the third and fourth worst teams are tied, and the coin flip winner has best odds of #1 and coin flip loser has like a 60% chance of finishing out of the top 4.

[Rockethorn1978 6109]

Nice loss and green has been killing it lately too so I like his progression 

[Fud 9559]

16 minutes ago, Ignatius said:

Don’t the bottom three teams have exactly the same odds of getting the top pick, regardless of how they finish relative to each other?

Yes, but they have different worst case scenarios, which is important in a draft where there are about four top prospect, and maybe one more wildcard in Sharpe. Then there’s a drop off 

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

[Wulaw Horn 19156]

31 minutes ago, Ignatius said:

Don’t the bottom three teams have exactly the same odds of getting the top pick, regardless of how they finish relative to each other?

Yes- but it matters because if you don’t end up top 4 they seed by worst record. So- if you finish with the worst record the worst you can pick is 5th, whereas if you finish with the 3rd worst record although you can have equal chance at winning a top 4 pick you could also pick as low as 7th. 

[BigOrange1 6476]

iconic fucking loss last night.  super proud of this team.  didn't think they had it in them.

[BigOrange1 6476]

hawks up 15 over the nets at the half.  would jump them in the standings with a win.

[BigOrange1 6476]

hawks win

[HtownHorn 14812]

Would love for Brooklyn to be in that 10th spot but their last 4 games are easy breezy while Charlotte has 2 tough ones. Likely 9/10 matchup between those 2 though.

 

Crazy we have games against Brooklyn and Atlanta. I'd almost be ok if we somehow beat Brooklyn to ensure they stay in the 9/10 game even it means we finish with the 2nd worst record. 

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1549]

Crotch City

 

[Wulaw Horn 19156]

Ok - dumb question but- if you finish 10th but end up winning play in games is your new spot out of the lotto?  And you get replaced by whoever you beat?  

[TonyTexas 10544]

16 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Ok - dumb question but- if you finish 10th but end up winning play in games is your new spot out of the lotto?  And you get replaced by whoever you beat?  

If you get out of the play-in tournament, you are not in the lottery. The importance of last night’s Nets loss is that they are now guaranteed to be be in play-in games. If they finish 9 or 10, they have to win 2 games to advance. 
 

[Wulaw Horn 19156]

2 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

If you get out of the play-in tournament, you are not in the lottery. The importance of last night’s Nets loss is that they are now guaranteed to be be in play-in games. If they finish 9 or 10, they have to win 2 games to advance. 
 

I get the importance to their actual playoff chances- just wasn’t sure if that moved them down the draft pecking order. Figured it did. Thanks. 

Edited April 3, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[BigOrange1 6476]

that's why it would be ideal for brooklyn to finish 9th or 10th.  in that case, best case they can do is the 8 seed and the pick corresponds to that spot in the standings.  but lose one game in the play in tournament and it's a lottery pick.

[TonyTexas 10544]

Best case lottery odds for Nets pick: 3% for a top 3 pick. 93% to pick 13. 

Edited April 3, 2022 by TonyTexas

[ChickenSandwich 9856]

55 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

that's why it would be ideal for brooklyn to finish 9th or 10th.  in that case, best case they can do is the 8 seed and the pick corresponds to that spot in the standings.  but lose one game in the play in tournament and it's a lottery pick.

Never mind.  He can play in NJ

Just lose baby 

Edited April 3, 2022 by ChickenSandwich

[Fud 9559]

Detroit wins 

[Fud 9559]

And they did it without Cade playing 

[BigOrange1 6476]

13 minutes ago, Fud said:

Detroit wins 

awesome.  i think worst case scenario, we are looking at the 2nd worst overall record in the league.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8843]

Hope houston has back up rims or backboards after all of these dunks

[Fud 9559]

7 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

awesome.  i think worst case scenario, we are looking at the 2nd worst overall record in the league.

Yeah seems like it. We’ll see 

[Fud 9559]

The rockets are down 80-68… at the half 

[BigOrange1 6476]

sengun is going to be a lot of fun to watch over the next several years.

 

[HtownHorn 14812]

I appreciate Minnesota taking this game seriously.

[TonyTexas 10544]

Wow. OKC beat Phoenix by 21. That should pretty much lock in a bottom 2 finish for the Rockets. 

[Fud 9559]

Just now, TonyTexas said:

Wow. OKC beat Phoenix by 21. That should pretty much lock in a bottom 2 finish for the Rockets. 

That’s wild 

[Fud 9559]

 

[ChickenSandwich 9856]

Christopher flirting with 30 off the bench. 

[TonyTexas 10544]

And Sengun has a 14p/15r/4a line. Last year’s draft could really pay off. 

[Fud 9559]

 

[BigOrange1 6476]

given that, i might be inclined to go all out and try to beat brooklyn on tuesday.

[Macklemore 2878]

14 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Christopher flirting with 30 off the bench. 

The Christopher pick was the most criticized out of the 4 first rounders selected. From an offensive production versus draft value position he has been the best so far. Only Guraba looks like he might not fit long term since he has a long way to go on an offensive game, especially. Kudos to Rafael for having a great draft. The improvement Jalen Green has made has been remarkable and very nice to see. All these guys are going to get Summer League and an off-season to get even better. Exciting future ahead.

[HtownHorn 14812]

46 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

The Christopher pick was the most criticized out of the 4 first rounders selected. From an offensive production versus draft value position he has been the best so far. Only Guraba looks like he might not fit long term since he has a long way to go on an offensive game, especially. Kudos to Rafael for having a great draft. The improvement Jalen Green has made has been remarkable and very nice to see. All these guys are going to get Summer League and an off-season to get even better. Exciting future ahead.

Guraba has looked like he belongs defensively and rebounding the basketball since they shelved Wood for the rest of the season. The problem with the Rockets is Silas's reluctance to play two bigs at the same time. He essentially favors 4 guards for his offensive spacing to work correctly, considering Tate's size. Ideally he should have 2 of the 3 on the court together as much as possible, Garuba, Sengun, and Fernando.

[TonyTexas 10544]

HtownHorn: how do you reconcile your strong pro-tanking takes with your constant criticisms of Silas for not using winning strategies and rotations? The two seem contradictory 

Edited April 4, 2022 by TonyTexas

[HtownHorn 14812]

1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

HtownHorn: how do you reconcile your strong pro-tanking takes with your constant criticisms of Silas for not using winning strategies and rotations? The two seem contradictory 

Because you have to figure out if these guys can play or not. I don't want an OKC rebuild. If the team wins because the 2021 class and other young players are improving you live with it. However, it will never happen because Silas is a moron of a coach. They really need to bring in a developmental coach that stresses defense and the ability to have 2 bigs on the court at the same time, because the Rockets are likely drafting one of the 3 bigs to go with Sengun.

The franchise wasted nearly 60 games with Wood and Gordon getting 30+ minutes a game, then doubled down on that stupidity by keeping Schroder and giving him 25+ minutes. No team with Porter running the point is consistently winning in the NBA. at least, we have figured out that he is not a PG. So the season is not a complete waste, if he wants to stay on the ball then trade him.

[UDontKnow 10451]

3 hours ago, Macklemore said:

The Christopher pick was the most criticized out of the 4 first rounders selected. From an offensive production versus draft value position he has been the best so far. Only Guraba looks like he might not fit long term since he has a long way to go on an offensive game, especially. Kudos to Rafael for having a great draft. The improvement Jalen Green has made has been remarkable and very nice to see. All these guys are going to get Summer League and an off-season to get even better. Exciting future ahead.

 

3 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

Guraba has looked like he belongs defensively and rebounding the basketball since they shelved Wood for the rest of the season. The problem with the Rockets is Silas's reluctance to play two bigs at the same time. He essentially favors 4 guards for his offensive spacing to work correctly, considering Tate's size. Ideally he should have 2 of the 3 on the court together as much as possible, Garuba, Sengun, and Fernando.

Garuba should have gotten more playing time this season. It's borderline criminal that he didn't. That said, if Garuba can play like Clint Capela in the paint and around the basket, then he was worth the pick. Recall that Capela was drafted with the 25th overall pick and Garuba was drafted with the 23rd overall pick - essentially the same place in the draft. Garuba doesn't need to have a diverse offensive game. He just needs to do the dirty work well.

Considering the goal was supposed to be an "organic" tank with development to contend down the road, my ideal starting five would have been: KPJ, Green, KMJ, Sengun, Garuba (1 -> 5) with Josh Christopher as 6th man. 

Silas was stupid for prioritizing the likes of Christian Wood and Eric Gordon starting and getting time over the rookies/young players.

[Macklemore 2878]

4 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

Guraba has looked like he belongs defensively and rebounding the basketball since they shelved Wood for the rest of the season. The problem with the Rockets is Silas's reluctance to play two bigs at the same time. He essentially favors 4 guards for his offensive spacing to work correctly, considering Tate's size. Ideally he should have 2 of the 3 on the court together as much as possible, Garuba, Sengun, and Fernando.

1st priority this off-season is firing Silas and finding a good coach who can develop young players and create a disciplined offensive and defensive system. Silas has been awful. Terrible rotations, player management and lack of well coached sets. If the Rockets hire good coach, we could conceivably get to .500 next year IF we nail our draft pick.

[billfromlaketravis 11565]

4 hours ago, UDontKnow said:

 

Garuba should have gotten more playing time this season. It's borderline criminal that he didn't. That said, if Garuba can play like Clint Capela in the paint and around the basket, then he was worth the pick. Recall that Capela was drafted with the 25th overall pick and Garuba was drafted with the 23rd overall pick - essentially the same place in the draft. Garuba doesn't need to have a diverse offensive game. He just needs to do the dirty work well.

Considering the goal was supposed to be an "organic" tank with development to contend down the road, my ideal starting five would have been: KPJ, Green, KMJ, Sengun, Garuba (1 -> 5) with Josh Christopher as 6th man. 

Silas was stupid for prioritizing the likes of Christian Wood and Eric Gordon starting and getting time over the rookies/young players.

I thought they were shooting for middle class man’s Draymond Green with Garuba?

[UDontKnow 10451]

4 hours ago, Macklemore said:

1st priority this off-season is firing Silas and finding a good coach who can develop young players and create a disciplined offensive and defensive system. Silas has been awful. Terrible rotations, player management and lack of well coached sets. If the Rockets hire good coach, we could conceivably get to .500 next year IF we nail our draft pick.

Silas has what? 2 more seasons on his contract? Fertitta is such a cheapskate that he'll probably let Silas finish coaching out the contract. But I agree that Silas needs to be gone yesterday.

I hear Silas grew up with a dictionary which was missing the page on which  you would normally find the word 'defense.'

[Fud 9559]

Interesting discussion here. I tend to agree that Sengun and Banchero can't coexist in high leverage situations defensively (in low leverage, you can always just put up a bunch of points), which makes that potential decision interesting

 

[billfromlaketravis 11565]

Jabari Smith and Agbaji is my dream draft as of today. 

[HtownHorn 14812]

Cmon on Orlando, you can do it.

[Fud 9559]

Orlando wins 

[TonyTexas 10544]

Pretty good company 

Womp , womp 

 

[Wulaw Horn 19156]

If you offered to trade Green to whoever won the lotto would they do it?  Would you do it?  If you did it and say- had the 1st and 4th pick- who would you choose?  
I think I would and would take Chet and Ivey and feel like I got the guy with the highest ceiling and the highest floor in the draft. I’m not a huge Green fan (don’t dislike him- don’t have any problem with him- just don’t love him). What’s y’all’s thoughts on him?  

[BigOrange1 6476]

nah i'm not trading green.  i was one of the bigger mobley supporters on this site during the draft process and even during the season, but green is looking like a home run.  get a top 2 pick and one of jabari or chet and lets fucking roll.

[billfromlaketravis 11565]

No thanks on trading Green. 

I’d probably trade the Nets pick if guaranteed the Rockets could move up and get Jabari. 

[Fud 9559]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

If you offered to trade Green to whoever won the lotto would they do it?  Would you do it?  If you did it and say- had the 1st and 4th pick- who would you choose?  
I think I would and would take Chet and Ivey and feel like I got the guy with the highest ceiling and the highest floor in the draft. I’m not a huge Green fan (don’t dislike him- don’t have any problem with him- just don’t love him). What’s y’all’s thoughts on him?  

[Wulaw Horn 19156]

So is the consensus nobody in this years draft would have gone in the top 4 or 5 last year then? Feels like the redraft stuff I’ve seen has Green at 4 or 5 (Mobley, Cade, Barnes and then Green/Kuminga). 
I guess I’m way more bullish on this years class. I think Ivey is going to be special and he seems to be going no higher than 4th. I’m not super locked in to an opinion on Green- that’s why I’m asking. I trust a lot  of yalls eye for talent. 

[HtownHorn 14812]

Green has had strong months in March and April so far. Of course, it helped they finally took the ball out of the hands of Wood/Gordon to see if the kid could play. I wish he showed more ability to create shots for others, but if Beal is his likely comp, you take it. Just build a better team around Bradley than Washington ever did. You have to jettison Wood and Gordon in the off-season and make very hard decisions on Porter and Tate. Personally, I think you let both go. 

Your core is your 2021 and 2022 draft classes. That's 6 1st round picks. Then you also found gold in Martin, he's PT has to get into the 30M range next season, which means getting rid of Tate and Matthews. Fernando has to play as well, his P36 averages are 26/15/3. Go sign a veteran PG to run the offense.

PG - vet guy like Rubio or even Schroder

SG - Green

SF - Martin Jr.

PF - 2023 pick - Smith/Holmgren

C - Sengun

6th man - Christopher

7th man - 2023 pick - Agbaji/Washington/slew of other wing players

8th man - Garuba

9th man - Fernando

That's your rotation for 2022-2023. If you are in the lottery again in the 2023, fine, but you have to develop that group.

Edited April 6, 2022 by HtownHorn

[Murfdogg21 4447]

Green is a barely 20 yo already throwing down a string of 30+ pt games with 50/40 shooting in the NBA. Nobody in the draft is a proven NBA commodity yet. Hell no I wouldn’t trade Green for Chet, Ivey, Jabari, and certainly not Banchero. 
 

Green, Sengun, and Jabari/Chet (and KPJ I guess if his pan flash doesnt run out) with Christopher off the bench could be damn fun to watch the next few years. There’s a lot of pipe smoking rumors that Golden State would give up Wiseman or Kuminga for Christian Wood. Wouldn’t that be nice?