2021-22 Houston Rockets Season Thread: Sucking with a Purpose

HtownHorn · April 6, 2022

4 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Green is a barely 20 yo already throwing down a string of 30+ pt games with 50/40 shooting in the NBA. Nobody in the draft is a proven NBA commodity yet. Hell no I wouldn’t trade Green for Chet, Ivey, Jabari, and certainly not Banchero.

Green, Sengun, and Jabari/Chet (and KPJ I guess if his pan flash doesnt run out) with Christopher off the bench could be damn fun to watch the next few years. There’s a lot of pipe smoking rumors that Golden State would give up Wiseman or Kuminga for Christian Wood. Wouldn’t that be nice?

Kuminga would be interesting, but want no part of Wiseman. 2 years of injuries, fuck no. Plus, he would be redundant with Sengun, Garuba, and whoever you take with your 1st pick. There is something to be said about how the Philly process was not the most efficient way of rebuilding.

Wulaw Horn · April 6, 2022

14 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Green has had strong months in March and April so far. Of course, it helped they finally took the ball out of the hands of Wood/Gordon to see if the kid could play. I wish he showed more ability to create shots for others, but if Beal is his likely comp, you take it. Just build a better team around Bradley than Washington ever did. You have to jettison Wood and Gordon in the off-season and make very hard decisions on Porter and Tate. Personally, I think you let both go.

Your core is your 2021 and 2022 draft classes. That's 6 1st round picks. Then you also found gold in Martin, he's PT has to get into the 30M range next season, which means getting rid of Tate and Matthews. Fernando has to play as well, his P36 averages are 26/15/3. Go sign a veteran PG to run the offense.

PG - vet guy like Rubio or even Schroder

SG - Green

SF - Martin Jr.

PF - 2023 pick - Smith/Holmgren

C - Sengun

6th man - Christopher

7th man - 2023 pick - Agbaji/Washington/slew of other wing players

8th man - Garuba

9th man - Fernando

That's your rotation for 2022-2023. If you are in the lottery again in the 2023, fine, but you have to develop that group.

Yeah- my concern about Green is lack of playmaking. I don’t know if you can be a perimeter guy that isn’t a great playmaker and be the best guy on a title team- if you want to score 30 every game though on decent efficiency that will obviously work.
I think you are right on all your stay/go. I contend we need to tank one more year- not at the cost of holding back the young guys development- but I’m not in favor of any move in the off-season that makes us better for 2022/23 if that makes sense. Keep those guys, keep a clean cap sheet and get one more high pick and spend the money around places you didn’t properly develop or get long term answers at.

Fud · April 6, 2022

9 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So is the consensus nobody in this years draft would have gone in the top 4 or 5 last year then? Feels like the redraft stuff I’ve seen has Green at 4 or 5 (Mobley, Cade, Barnes and then Green/Kuminga).
I guess I’m way more bullish on this years class. I think Ivey is going to be special and he seems to be going no higher than 4th. I’m not super locked in to an opinion on Green- that’s why I’m asking. I trust a lot of yalls eye for talent.

The consensus last year was that the top three (Cade, Green, Mobley) were strong 1.1 candidates for most years, which is why it was considered a very strong draft at the top. This year is considered to be weak, with three guys who'd be weak 1.1s in most years, since they're all a bit flawed (Banchero's defense, Chet's body, Jabari's ceiling)

Fud · April 6, 2022

9 hours ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Green is a barely 20 yo already throwing down a string of 30+ pt games with 50/40 shooting in the NBA. Nobody in the draft is a proven NBA commodity yet. Hell no I wouldn’t trade Green for Chet, Ivey, Jabari, and certainly not Banchero.

Green, Sengun, and Jabari/Chet (and KPJ I guess if his pan flash doesnt run out) with Christopher off the bench could be damn fun to watch the next few years. There’s a lot of pipe smoking rumors that Golden State would give up Wiseman or Kuminga for Christian Wood. Wouldn’t that be nice?

Kuminga, yes.

Wiseman, ehhhh?

BigOrange1 · April 6, 2022

the rockets can keep kpj next year by picking up his relatively cheap option right? that would make him a restricted free agent next season and give them another year to evaluate him. i know a lot in the fanbase are mixed on him, but his talent is undeniable. it might even be worth it to keep schroeder (or let wall play next year if they can't move him this summer) and let porter play off the ball some.

i would be super fucking excited about a lineup of:

kpj, green, tate, chet/jabari/paolo, sengun

with kj martin, jgup, garubu, brooklyn pick, gary bird coming off the bench.

i'd be ok with whatever the results of next season bring (my guess is not worst record in the league, but probably not play in tournament either - something like 7th-10th pick) if they committed to just playing the young guys (with the only exception being if they wanted to have a veteran pg to try kpj off the ball at times).

billfromlaketravis · April 6, 2022

Schroeder is gone. He left so much money on the table, he has to try and go get that back. Fit/city/team doesn’t matter. A could see a team like the Clippers overpaying him.

HtownHorn · April 6, 2022

5 hours ago, BigOrange1 said:

the rockets can keep kpj next year by picking up his relatively cheap option right? that would make him a restricted free agent next season and give them another year to evaluate him. i know a lot in the fanbase are mixed on him, but his talent is undeniable. it might even be worth it to keep schroeder (or let wall play next year if they can't move him this summer) and let porter play off the ball some.

i would be super fucking excited about a lineup of:

kpj, green, tate, chet/jabari/paolo, sengun

with kj martin, jgup, garubu, brooklyn pick, gary bird coming off the bench.

i'd be ok with whatever the results of next season bring (my guess is not worst record in the league, but probably not play in tournament either - something like 7th-10th pick) if they committed to just playing the young guys (with the only exception being if they wanted to have a veteran pg to try kpj off the ball at times).

If Porter wants to move off the ball to the 3, and be the secondary or tertiary play maker then I would give it a season for the transition. You want to maximize the development of the young players, get them a real PG that gets them easier shots. Porter's 18% TOV is just way too high to be the primary ball handler.

UDontKnow · April 7, 2022

9 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

If Porter wants to move off the ball to the 3, and be the secondary or tertiary play maker then I would give it a season for the transition. You want to maximize the development of the young players, get them a real PG that gets them easier shots. Porter's 18% TOV is just way too high to be the primary ball handler.

Yeah, no that's not a valid point. And here's why.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/james-harden-turnover-percentage-by-season

A veteran Harden had a 19.7% TOV rate in 2016-2017. The next three seasons all of his TOV rates were at least 14.4% despite having CP3. Remember that KPJ has played a little over than 2 seasons worth of NBA games and the Rockets have not really had any other full time ballhandlers for most of his tenure.

https://fadeawayworld.net/nba/the-last-40-turnover-leaders-james-harden-and-russell-westbrook-are-turnover-machines

This season not counting, Harden was the league leader in turnovers 6 out of the previous 10 seasons.

Interesting how Magic Johnson, John Stockton, Jason Kidd, and Steve Nash made this list at various points. Shout out to former Rockets Ralph Sampson and Steve Francis for making the list as well.

Fud · April 7, 2022

Christian Wood sits, and the defense gets better

BigOrange1 · April 7, 2022

good breakdown from bobby marks. i'm putting it in spoiler tags so as not to longcat the thread and have bolded several things that i found interesting.

Spoiler

The growing pains the Houston Rockets have encountered since trading James Harden to the Brooklyn Nets 15 months ago have been both painful and rewarding.

Yes, the Rockets have lost at least 50 games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since the early 1980s. However, they've also seen growth in their roster, starting with rookie Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr. and Christian Wood.

Houston will continue the rebuild this offseason, when the Rockets should have a top-five pick in the June draft, which could accelerate the process of becoming a winning team.

State of the roster

Roster status: Rebuilding (with resources to take a big jump in 2022-23).

There was a point early in the 2021-22 season when the Rockets were trending toward having the worst record in league history. After winning the home opener against the Thunder, Houston went on to lose 15 games in a row. Houston eventually rebounded, winning its next seven games, including victories against Brooklyn and Chicago. However, after tasting success, the Rockets went 3-15, including an eight-game losing streak.

That stretch of basketball from mid-October to early January best describes the Rockets' inconsistent season and their inability to handle success. Every two solid games would be followed by an extended losing streak. Houston had six losing streaks of three or more games, including 15, 12 and eight.

The inconsistent play is common for a team that has eight players under the age of 23 and the sixth-youngest roster in the NBA.

Still, in a season of growing pains, the backcourt of Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. showed improvement.

Green has had five consecutive 30-point games, the second-longest streak by a rookie over the past 50 seasons, behind only Allen Iverson (six). He averaged 20.1 points on 47% shooting and 40% from 3 after Feb. 1. Prior to that, Green was shooting 37% overall and 29% from 3. Per Second Spectrum data, Green has shot 44% on off-the-dribble jumpers since the beginning of February, up from 28% in October to January.

Porter, meanwhile, has seen his turnovers per game decrease from 3.7 (October to January) to 2.3 since Feb. 1.

The offseason will present the Rockets another opportunity to improve and possibly change the landscape of their roster.

The Rockets return 13 players under contract (including John Wall, who has a player option for next season) and will face a balancing act on adding to their roster. The Rockets could have two lottery picks (they have an unprotected first from Brooklyn) in the June draft and face big decisions on Wall, Christian Wood, Eric Gordon and Porter.

Finding closure with John Wall

The only thing guaranteed about Wall's future is that he will opt into his $47.1 million salary for 2022-23. After that, it is up to the Rockets and the former All-Star to bring closure to his stay in Houston, either with a buyout or trade. A buyout was a non-starter before the start of last season.

"I don't want to speak for John, but I can tell you, organizationally, we don't have any interest in [a buyout] at this time," general manager Rafael Stone said. "We'll keep talking and everything else. I don't think that makes sense for John. I don't think it makes any sense for us. So we're going to find things that make sense for both parties as opposed to finding something that doesn't make any sense for either."

At the time, Wall had $91 million left on his contract and it made no sense for Houston to have over $70 million in dead cap money spread out evenly on their books for the next two seasons.

However, after not finding a trade partner this season, the reality is that a buyout could be the Rockets' lone option. One thing to keep in mind is that the Rockets received a first-round pick from Washington to acquire Wall, and entertaining buyout talks is not seen as a failed transaction.

From a buyout perspective, the question comes down to how much Wall is willing to give back. There have been only four players in NBA history (Bison Dele, Larry Sanders, Derek Fisher and Kemba Walker) who accepted a buyout that gave back more than $20 million.

The teams that have projected cap space (Indiana, Detroit, San Antonio, Portland and Orlando) are not in need of a starting point guard, and the lone signing mechanism could be the $10.3 million midlevel exception. Would Wall give back $20 million if he could secure a two-year, $20 million contract with his former team in Washington?

A $27 million cap hit is a big number for the Rockets to absorb, but it would create significant savings and leave them with more than $20 million in cap space.

Although Wall is now on an expiring contract, the same challenges Houston faced during the regular season with a trade are present in the offseason. The largest contract in the NBA would require an opposing team to send back $37.7 million in salary. The only player who fits the criteria is Russell Westbrook, and the Lakers already passed on adding draft assets to a deal at the trade deadline. Plus, swapping Wall for Westbrook would simply leave the Rockets in the same situation with a different player.

Kevin Porter Jr.'s rookie extension

When the Rockets acquired Porter from the Cleveland Cavaliers in January 2021, it was a low-risk move. At the time of the trade, the Rockets were investing $1.8 million -- the amount of the third year of his rookie-scale contract -- to continue Porter's development both on and away from the basketball court.

Although Porter was coming off a rookie season in Cleveland in which he averaged close to 10 points, there were numerous transgressions, including a screaming match with team officials before a game. If the relationship between both sides soured, the Rockets could cut bait at any time and incur a small financial burden. The only asset they would lose was a future top-55 protected second-round pick. However, if a relationship grew out of trust, the Rockets could potentially have their point guard of the future.

After a 15-game stint in the G League after he was acquired, Porter has started every game but three in his two seasons with the Rockets, but his play on the court has been all over the place. After a 10-turnover game to start the season, Porter followed up with 18 points, 10 assists and only two turnovers in the next game. Per Second Spectrum data, Porter has shot 46.7% of catch-and-shoot jumpers on 107 attempts. That ranks fifth best among players with 100 attempts.

One part of his game that has gone under the radar is his defense. Per ESPN Stats & Information research, the Rockets have a 105.4 defensive efficiency when Porter plays without Green, better than the overall number for the league-leading Boston Celtics.

Off the court, Porter realizes that the trade to the Rockets saved his basketball career.

"They gave me love and confidence in myself, and motivation to become a better player and person," he said at media day. "They've invested a lot in me, and I try to give them my all to repay them in some way."

Porter is far from a finished product. He was suspended in January for a tirade at halftime that eventually saw him leave the Toyota Center before the game was finished. He would tell the Houston Chronicle that he eventually apologized to his teammates and the Rockets organization.

"I think just as a man and as a human, that's the right thing to do," he said. "Even if you feel like you're in the right, there's ways to approach things in situations, and I felt, as a man, I didn't approach it the right way. So I apologize. I feel like that's just something you need to do as a principled thing."

Now entering the offseason, the front office is faced with an important decision: Have they seen enough from Porter on the basketball court and from a maturity level to reward him with a new contract?

Because Porter was the last pick in the first round in 2019, he has a modest $11.5 million free-agent hold in 2023.

If the Rockets are willing to offer an extension this summer and not wait until he is a restricted free agent in 2023, that number is the starting point of a new contract. A four-year, $51.5 million extension with a team option in the last season benefits both sides. At a minimum, Porter is guaranteed $37 million and the Rockets have the guard on a salary comparable to the midlevel exception and also have an out after the third season.

Christian Wood and Eric Gordon

The offseason should bring more clarity on the futures of Wood and Gordon.

Both players are on expiring contracts (Gordon has a $20.9 million nonguaranteed salary for 2023-24), which means Houston will be more willing to move them than the Rockets were at the 2022 trade deadline, when Houston made it clear it would not trade either player if the right offer did not present itself.

Wood is one of 14 players in the NBA to average 15 points and 10 rebounds this season. Since the All-Star break, he has averaged 19.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, while shooting 57.8% from the field and 45.7% from 3.

Wood is eligible to receive a four-year, $77 million extension this offseason, and the Rockets' front office will certainly weigh the pros and cons of a deal.

The pro is that the $16.4 million salary in 2022-23 ranks in the middle of the pack for starting centers and is justified by Wood's on-court production.

The cons are whether the Rockets can trust Wood on a contract that nearly doubles the $41 million deal that he signed in 2020 and whether Wood's presence blocks the development of 2021 first-round pick Alperen Sengun.

In nine starts this season, the 19-year-old Sengun has averaged 11.4 points and eight rebounds. He had a career-high 27 points in a win against Portland late in the season.

Because there is a six-month extension restriction if he is traded, Wood's trade value decreases if a decision is not made by Aug. 9. The Rockets can still extend him past the August date, but any team that acquires him would have to play out the season with Wood on an expiring contract.

As for Gordon, the Rockets value the on-court and off-court leadership he brings. The Rockets have the worst net rating in the NBA (-8.3) but saw that number drop to -0.5 when Gordon was on the court with Porter and Green.

However, Gordon will turn 34 in December, is coming off one of his more productive seasons and the Rockets will need to weigh his value with their young players or in a possible trade.

"I think we've seen real growth in our young players, and I think Eric is a big part of that," Stone said after the deadline. "He's bought in and wants to be part of it. He feels good about the process. He likes where we are at."

Offseason cap breakdown

Houston Rockets 2022-23 Salary Breakdown

PLAYER	CAP CHARGE
*Note: guaranteed salary includes cap hold for first-round pick
1. John Wall	$47,366,760 (player option)
2. Eric Gordon	$19,568,360
3. Christian Wood	$14,317,460
4. Jalen Green	$9,441,840
5. David Nwaba	$5,022,000
6. Alperen Sengun	$3,375,480
7. Kevin Porter Jr.	$3,217,631
8. Usman Garuba	$2,471,160
9. Josh Christopher	$2,372,160
10. Daishen Nix	$1,563,518
11. Garrison Mathews	$2,000,000
12. Kenyon Martin Jr.	$1,782,621
13. Jae'Sean Tate	$1,782,621 (team option)
14. Dennis Schroder¹	$7,068,000 (free agent hold)
15. Bruno Fernando²	$2,228,276 (free agent hold)
16. Trevelin Queen³	$1,616,044 (free agent hold)
17. Anthony Lamb³	$1,616,044 (free agent hold)
18. First-rounder (own)	$9,759,000 (draft hold)
19. First-rounder (via Brooklyn)	$3,488,769 (draft hold)
-- D.J. Augustin	$333,333 (dead cap hit)
Guaranteed salary	$120.7M*
Dead money	$333K
Non-guaranteed	$1.8M
Free-agent hold	$12.5M
Total salaries on cap	135.4M
2022-23 NBA SALARY CAP	$122M
2022-23 NBA LUXURY TAX LINE	$147M
_{1. Non Bird}
_{2. Restricted Bird}
_{3. Restricted Non Bird}

Unless Wall takes a significant buyout ($20 million or more), the Rockets are projected to be over the salary cap this offseason. With Wall's $47.4 million contract and $13 million of first-round picks counting against their cap ledger, Houston is right at the $122 million salary cap. Because it is a cap team, Houston will have the $10.3 million midlevel and $4.0 million biannual exception available to use in free agency.

Houston Rockets Depth Chart

PG	SG	SF	PF	C
K. Porter Jr.	J. Green	G. Mathews	J. Tate^T	C. Wood
J. Wall^P	E. Gordon	J. Christopher	K. Martin	A. Sengun
	D. Nwaba		U. Garuba
			D. Nix
_{P=Player option}
_{T=Team option}

Team needs

Rim protector
Starting and backup point guard
Stretch 4

Resources to build the roster

The draft: two first-round picks.
Future draft assets: Four unprotected firsts (Brooklyn and Milwaukee) and the right to swap firsts with Brooklyn in 2023, 2025 and 2027.
The tradable players: Gordon and Wood.
Financial flexibility if Wall is bought out.
Player development: Eight players under the age of 23.
Exceptions: $10.3 million midlevel and $4 million biannual.
Cash: $6.2 million to send or receive in a trade.

Dates to watch

JUNE 29: This is the date by which Wall has to opt in to his $47.4 million contract for the 2022-23 season, unless a buyout is reached before then.
JUNE 29: The Rockets have until this date to exercise the $1.9 million team option of Jae'Sean Tate. On a Rockets roster filled with players drafted in the first and second rounds, it is the undrafted Tate who is their most valuable player. Tate followed up his All-Rookie first-team selection last season to average 12.7 points and 5.5 rebounds this season.

Restrictions

Houston sent out $1.1 million in two separate trades and is restricted to send out no more than $4.6 million in a trade prior to June 30. Their cash allotment to send or receive in a trade replenishes to $6.2 million starting on July 1.
Tate cannot be traded until the team option is exercised.

Extension-eligible

Tate is extension-eligible if the Rockets exercise his $1.9 million option for next season. The maximum that Houston can offer is four years, $58 million. However, if the Rockets wait until the 2023 offseason, they can take advantage of his $2.3 million free-agent hold and use cap space first to build out the roster before signing the forward. Although the Rockets have the right to match, they run the risk of paying a higher premium to retain Tate if he becomes a free agent.
Martin had his contract guaranteed and is extension-eligible this offseason. The Rockets have two options if they want to extend Martin. They can exercise his $1.9 million option for 2023-24 and extend him for an additional three years starting with the 2024-25 season. This is similar to the Terance Mann extension with the Clippers and Daniel Gafford in Washington. They could also amend his current contract to remove the team option and extend him for four seasons, starting in 2023-24.

The draft

The Rockets own a total of four unprotected firsts (2023, 2024 and 2026) from Brooklyn and Milwaukee but do owe Oklahoma City two future firsts as part of the Westbrook trade. Houston will send the Thunder a top-four protected first-round pick in 2024 and 2026. If neither are conveyed, the Rockets will then send 2024, 2025 and 2026 second-round picks to Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City also has the right to swap firsts in 2025 if the Rockets' pick is outside of the top 10. If the swap is made, Houston would then have the option to swap the Thunder first for the Brooklyn first. The Rockets have the right to swap firsts with Brooklyn in 2023, 2025 and 2027.

Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Houston selecting in June:

No. 1 (own): Chet Holmgren, PF, Gonzaga

We've truly never seen an NBA prospect quite like Holmgren: A shot-blocking, lob-catching, 3-point shooting, ballhandling 7-foot-1 "big man" with the fluidity of a guard and a relentlessness that doesn't match his slender, 195-pound frame. With a body type that earns him comparisons ranging from Kevin Durant to Brandon Ingram to Kristaps Porzingis to Bol Bol, Holmgren has let his game do the talking. -- Schmitz

No. 14 (via BKN): TyTy Washington Jr., PG/SG, Kentucky

Outside of one week in which Sahvir Wheeler was injured (when Washington broke John Wall's Kentucky single-game record with 17 assists), we never quite got to see what Washington would look like as a full-time point guard, something NBA teams would surely like to know more about. Washington's ability to make reads out of ball screens is arguably his biggest strength, but he averaged less than six pick-and-rolls per game and ranked 467th among Division I players, per Synergy Sports Technology data. Prior to Washington's injuries, he was the most efficient pick-and-roll player in college basketball, but he fell off the past two months. -- Givony

HtownHorn · April 8, 2022

Tomorrow is a big day for Rockets' draft picks.

Need to lose to Toronto, have Brooklyn lose to Cleveland, have Alanta beat Miami, and Charlotte beat the Bulls.

Serak The Preparer · April 8, 2022

BigOrange1 · April 8, 2022

11 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

Tomorrow is a big day for Rockets' draft picks.

Need to lose to Toronto, have Brooklyn lose to Cleveland, have Alanta beat Miami, and Charlotte beat the Bulls.

i feel good about losing to toronto, but idk about the other 3. miami has clinched the #1 seed so maybe they won't go all out vs the hawks. i have no confidence that the cavs will beat the nets and the bulls/hawks game could go either way.

LTtxfan · April 8, 2022

11 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

Tomorrow is a big day for Rockets' draft picks.

Need to lose to Toronto, have Brooklyn lose to Cleveland, have Alanta beat Miami, and Charlotte beat the Bulls.

Rocket Fans...

Fud · April 8, 2022

Vecenie and Pennie reiterated on their pod that they have major concerns about Banchero’s defense and Griffin’s loss of athleticism. Banchero is 3-4 for them, and Griffin is clearly below Sharpe

HtownHorn · April 9, 2022

Rockets blowing a huge 1Q lead - tied midway through 3Q.

Cleveland down 10 after punting the 1Q against Brooklyn

Charlotte running away from Chicago up 27 late in the 2Q

Atlanta tied with Miami with 3 minutes to go in the 1H.

LTtxfan · April 9, 2022

6 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Rockets blowing a huge 1Q lead - tied midway through 3Q.

Cleveland down 10 after punting the 1Q against Brooklyn

Charlotte running away from Chicago up 27 late in the 2Q

Atlanta tied with Miami with 3 minutes to go in the 1H.

So still hoping for the quadfecta...

Rockets lose
Brooklyn loss to Cavs
Bulls loss to Charlotte
Miami loss to ATL

BigOrange1 · April 9, 2022

clutch loss!

HtownHorn · April 9, 2022

38 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

So still hoping for the quadfecta...

Rockets lose - Done

Brooklyn loss to Cavs - Not likely, Cavs took a 7 point lead into the 4Q

Bulls loss to Charlotte - Hornets up big

Miami loss to ATL - Tight game

Brooklyn once again turns the D up in the 4Q.

BigOrange1 · April 9, 2022

but this was awesome

LTtxfan · April 9, 2022

30 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Brooklyn once again turns the D up in the 4Q.

Miami heat ATL

billfromlaketravis · April 9, 2022

So one more loss and the Rockets are guaranteed a top 3 pick?

BigOrange1 · April 9, 2022

18 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

So one more loss and the Rockets are guaranteed a top 3 pick?

top 5.

Fud · April 9, 2022

Houston should lock in a top five pick, but the Nets’ pick is trending towards being the pick from the 7th seed. Oh well

I think for Houston, Sharpe will be the 5th pick assuming he doesn’t go top four and push someone else down

BigOrange1 · April 9, 2022

here is a better video of last night's highlight play:

HtownHorn · April 9, 2022

3 hours ago, Fud said:

Houston should lock in a top five pick, but the Nets’ pick is trending towards being the pick from the 7th seed. Oh well

I think for Houston, Sharpe will be the 5th pick assuming he doesn’t go top four and push someone else down

No to any Kentucky or Duke players in the top 5.

HtownHorn · April 10, 2022

The Orlando Heat game is going to be lit.

Wulaw Horn · April 10, 2022

3 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

The Orlando Heat game is going to be lit.

This is stupid we are still incentivized to lose today. If we win it could be the difference between picking 5th and 6th. Like a 10% chance at that difference. So yeah, keep your eyes on the prize and lose today fellas.

HtownHorn · April 10, 2022

27 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

This is stupid we are still incentivized to lose today. If we win it could be the difference between picking 5th and 6th. Like a 10% chance at that difference. So yeah, keep your eyes on the prize and lose today fellas.

If we lose the coin flip, too.

So, we need the same thing today as two days ago.

Atlanta needs to beat us.

Indiana has to pull the upset of the century.

Cleveland has to beat Milwaukee's 3rd string.

Charlotte has to avoid the upset against a tanking Washington.

As a bonus, Orlando beating Miami's backups would give Houston a little breathing room.

That would mean the 4 play-in spots would be

7. Cleveland

8. Atlanta

9. Charlotte

10. Brooklyn

Edited April 10, 2022 by HtownHorn

Wulaw Horn · April 10, 2022

53 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

If we lose the coin flip, too.

So, we need the same thing today as two days ago.

Atlanta needs to beat us.

Indiana has to pull the upset of the century.

Cleveland has to beat Milwaukee's 3rd string.

Charlotte has to avoid the upset against a tanking Washington.

As a bonus, Orlando beating Miami's backups would give Houston a little breathing room.

That would mean the 4 play-in spots would be

7. Cleveland

8. Atlanta

9. Charlotte

10. Brooklyn

The if we lose the coin flip is why I said 10% chance at difference between 5 and 6.
there is a little over 20% chance that neither us, nor Orlando finish too 4 in the lotto. If that happens 5th place will be decided by a coin flip which is obviously 50/50. Ergo, a win today takes us from a 0 percent chance of dropping to 6th to a 10% chance of dropping to 6th. No reason to fuck around and win

HtownHorn · April 10, 2022

All the games involving the Rockets picks are in the 1st set of games today. Should know by 5PM how good that Nets pick will be.

Fud · April 10, 2022

Looks like Houston will successfully lock down a top five pick. Pretty heroic tanking down the stretch. It’ll be interesting to see if Sharpe is in the draft

TonyTexas · April 10, 2022

Perfect season for the Rockets. Worst record and guaranteed top 5 pick along with good progress from its young future core.

Rockethorn1978 · April 10, 2022

What a way for green to end the season. 41 points. I am very pumped about his progression this season.

HtownHorn · April 10, 2022

Outside of Brooklyn losing 2 in a row, we are looking at their pick being 17.

Rockethorn1978 · April 10, 2022

Ok so rockets have the worst record, and we only get a top 5 pick? I thought it was guaranteed top 3 for the worst 3 records with all 3 having equal shot at the number 1 pick?

Wulaw Horn · April 10, 2022

5 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Outside of Brooklyn losing 2 in a row, we are looking at their pick being 17.

That’s about as good as anyone would have any right to expect at the beginning of the year when the Nets were odds on favorites to win the title.

BigOrange1 · April 10, 2022

4 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Ok so rockets have the worst record, and we only get a top 5 pick? I thought it was guaranteed top 3 for the worst 3 records with all 3 having equal shot at the number 1 pick?

its only been discussed 400 times in this thread.

Fud · April 10, 2022

5 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Ok so rockets have the worst record, and we only get a top 5 pick? I thought it was guaranteed top 3 for the worst 3 records with all 3 having equal shot at the number 1 pick?

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Rockethorn1978 · April 10, 2022

2 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

its only been discussed 400 times in this thread.

Cool

Slacks · April 10, 2022

40 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Ok so rockets have the worst record, and we only get a top 5 pick? I thought it was guaranteed top 3 for the worst 3 records with all 3 having equal shot at the number 1 pick?

They do have the same odds at the top 3... And are guaranteed no worse than 5th. Remember, it's a lottery.

HtownHorn · April 11, 2022

If it's 5, I'd want the Iowa forward. Need some length, no more playing 4 guards. You already have a lot of low floor high ceiling guys on the team, no need to bring in another like Sharpe who also plays the same position as 4 of those guys you already have. Murray has a solid game and brings some higher floor into the mix. You can also look to go low floor high ceiling at 17 with the big from France playing in Australia or even Kessler from Auburn.

If you have 1 or 2 you bring in Smith and Holmgren. If you have 3, then bring in Ivey and hope he can play the PG and move Porter to wing. If you are stuck with Banchero, find a trade partner, because his defense sucks. I want no part of Jabari Parker/Jahlil Okafor 2.0

Edited April 11, 2022 by HtownHorn

Wulaw Horn · April 11, 2022

59 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

If it's 5, I'd want the Iowa forward. Need some length, no more playing 4 guards. You already have a lot of low floor high ceiling guys on the team, no need to bring in another like Sharpe who also plays the same position as 4 of those guys you already have. Murray has a solid game and brings some higher floor into the mix. You can also look to go low floor high ceiling at 17 with the big from France playing in Australia or even Kessler from Auburn.

If you have 1 or 2 you bring in Smith and Holmgren. If you have 3, then bring in Ivey and hope he can play the PG and move Porter to wing. If you are stuck with Banchero, find a trade partner, because his defense sucks. I want no part of Jabari Parker/Jahlil Okafor 2.0

You have to get Chet, Smith or Ivey imo. Package #17 or whatever with #5 if that’s what you have to do to get Ivey (who I assume goes 3rd or 4th) as a worst case scenario. But really just hope you get 3rd or better. I might trade back from 1 to 2 or 3 if I could get a first round unprotected in 2028 or something.

perfectchaos007 · April 11, 2022

Any foreign guy we might go after if we win the lottery? Last time we won the lottery we drafted some tall dude from China

Murfdogg21 · April 11, 2022

8 hours ago, perfectchaos007 said:

Any foreign guy we might go after if we win the lottery? Last time we won the lottery we drafted some tall dude from China

No but we can get a lanky center that will have career ending foot problems.

Make em eat Taco Bell · April 11, 2022

A final report card for the 2021-22 Rockets

20 wins – worst (30^th)

Scoring ppg (19^th)

Defensive ppg (30^th) at 118.2 is much worse than 29^th 115.8

Scoring differential ppg (29^th)

Offensive FG% (24^th)

3pt % (21^st)

Defensive FG% (29^th) just a tiny bit better than Pacers.

Defensive 3pt % (17^th)

FT% (30^th) at 71.3% significantly lower than 29^th position 73.2%

Rebounding (30^th)

Assists (23^rd)

Steals (17^th)

Blocks (15^th)

Blocked against (28^th) this is a ‘bad’ stat.

Turnovers (30^th) at a whopping 16.5 a game compared to 29^th 14.9.

Defensive Rating (30^th)

Opponent steal (30^th) at 9.5 a game! Much worse than 29^th 8.5 .

And my favorite – Opponent 2pt % at 30^th 57.0%. Meaning dunks, layups and short jumpers are easy against Houston. No size inside and some fans want even more perimeter players big or small.

Rare to see such a defensively atrocious NBA team. The stats explain regularly giving up 70 pts at halftime.

Drafting Jabari, Holmgren, Banchero isn’t going to help the defense will it?

Wulaw Horn · April 11, 2022

59 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

A final report card for the 2021-22 Rockets

20 wins – worst (30^th)

Scoring ppg (19^th)

Defensive ppg (30^th) at 118.2 is much worse than 29^th 115.8

Scoring differential ppg (29^th)

Offensive FG% (24^th)

3pt % (21^st)

Defensive FG% (29^th) just a tiny bit better than Pacers.

Defensive 3pt % (17^th)

FT% (30^th) at 71.3% significantly lower than 29^th position 73.2%

Rebounding (30^th)

Assists (23^rd)

Steals (17^th)

Blocks (15^th)

Blocked against (28^th) this is a ‘bad’ stat.

Turnovers (30^th) at a whopping 16.5 a game compared to 29^th 14.9.

Defensive Rating (30^th)

Opponent steal (30^th) at 9.5 a game! Much worse than 29^th 8.5 .

And my favorite – Opponent 2pt % at 30^th 57.0%. Meaning dunks, layups and short jumpers are easy against Houston. No size inside and some fans want even more perimeter players big or small.

Rare to see such a defensively atrocious NBA team. The stats explain regularly giving up 70 pts at halftime.

Drafting Jabari, Holmgren, Banchero isn’t going to help the defense will it?

The point isn’t to help the defense right now. The point is to acquire talent this off-season (and hopefully they tank next season and can get some top end talent that off-season) before building a winning and coherent team to try to win big in 2024.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

Fud · April 11, 2022

No way I'm drafting Keegan Murray in the top five; he's a 22 year old mediocre athlete. It's one of Jabari, Chet, Banchero, Ivey, or Sharpe (assuming he's in the draft)

HtownHorn · April 11, 2022

1 hour ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

Drafting Jabari, Holmgren, Banchero isn’t going to help the defense will it?

Banchero is a defensive liability in the NBA, especially with Sengun. Holmgren and Smith actually play defense and would help improve the overall athleticism of the team. However, for a real change to occur, you need to get rid of Silas and the coaching staff. There are few people in the NBA as bad as what the Rockets are throwing out their teaching these guys.

Slacks · April 12, 2022

Yeah, if you're drafting outside of 3 (2, really), you get a deal going with a couple of top 15 teams for a draft day trade of whomever they want for one of the remaining centers and a 1st rd pick next year...

Or just trade the pick to 12 or whatever and grab a center.

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