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Hey real estate moguls - what’s going on in the housing market?

tbone_

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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301

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9 hours ago, ONE YARD said:

Pricing has gone insane in the historic part Galveston.  Literally double what it was 2 years ago.  

Wife is also pregos, so we need another bedroom.   Current house is 3-3 3.6k sf and pretty much the largest nonmansion house in the area, so we are fucked with nowhere to move unless we want to shell out 2 million on a white elephant.  

Housing  stock seems to disappear between 3.5k-6k sf, so we are  in the process of adding a bathroom, bedroom and office to the house.  Fun times.    Will get us 4.2k sf or so.   I’m hoping it ends up being a good investment, especially since it will hopefully fill the upper middleclass family of 4 niche that seems to be missing. 

How big is your family?

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gurt

gurt 748

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Pricing has gone insane in the historic part Galveston.  Literally double what it was 2 years ago.  
Wife is also pregos, so we need another bedroom.   Current house is 3-3 3.6k sf and pretty much the largest nonmansion house in the area, so we are fucked with nowhere to move unless we want to shell out 2 million on a white elephant.  
Housing  stock seems to disappear between 3.5k-6k sf, so we are  in the process of adding a bathroom, bedroom and office to the house.  Fun times.    Will get us 4.2k sf or so.   I’m hoping it ends up being a good investment, especially since it will hopefully fill the upper middleclass family of 4 niche that seems to be missing. 

How huge are the bedrooms in your house? I live in a 3 bedroom house that is less than a third as big as yours lol
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FORTY NINE TO ZERO

FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2,652

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4 hours ago, gurt said:


How huge are the bedrooms in your house? I live in a 3 bedroom house that is less than a third as big as yours lol

Our house was built in the 1880s and has had a few additions since. Our master bedroom is actually the largest room in the house at 510sf (only reason I know this is that we had plans made up for the addition). It’s pretty badass with a sitting area, full fire place, venturi transom, and many large windows designed to be a breezeway to catch the gulf wind. The other bedrooms are standard size by modern standards.  Our current master bathroom is the old trunk room so it’s pretty small. We are going add a new 210sf master bathroom over a rear flat roof that has been giving me issues.  Our old bathroom will become the bathroom for the new bedroom being built over a side flat roof on the other side of the house.   The original owner was a cotton trader who made a lot of $$ exporting to Europe.  It later become an embassy.    We are lucky in that it all pretty original with all the OG woodwork still unpainted.  

3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Most houses of that size have extra rooms that don't count towards bed or bath.  Game rooms, offices, etc.

Yep. We have a parlor, masonry ice house (where they used to store blocks of Ice back the day), formal dining room, etc.  my office is now a play room, hence why we are adding a new one.  

4 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

How big is your family?

Will be four.  So each kid will have their own room and bathroom. Plus a guest area. 

Edited by ONE YARD
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tbone_

tbone_ 14,123

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Well, what we want is to be in the lower 48 and within walking distance of a great warm water beach, so Biloxi on east to Key West is pretty optimal.
Honestly, I'm not interested in being surrounded by Floridians, but I'm surrounded by Texans right now, so  . . . (no offense to all the fine Texans on surly, but this state has a large cadre of asshats).

Ex was from ft Meyers. I always enjoyed it there. But i don’t have too much trouble ignoring people and politics.
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FORTY NINE TO ZERO

FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2,652

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2 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Do you really need 4200Sq feet?  Of course I live in California, 2000 sq feet is a mansion here.

Ha. I guess not?   To be honest what started all this is that we have flat roofs over side and rear first floor 1940s additions that are the bane of my existence. I have spent probably close to 10k trying stop random leaks ove the years. Eventually decided the only way to stop the leaks is to build a covered porch over both.  Then after looking at pricing i decided to just add walls and boom. Additions. 

Edited by ONE YARD
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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4,639

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On 10/30/2021 at 11:35 AM, jimmyjazz said:

Still trying to identify a location, maybe the gulf coast of Florida, but I look forward to dropping from 3700 sf 5/4.5 to about 1800 sf 3/2.  One master, two guest rooms, one mine, one hers for TVs and general escape space when we're tired of each other, which is often.

I wouldn’t mind costal Fla at all. 

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Brew

Brew 3,049

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52 minutes ago, tbone_ said:


Ex was from ft Meyers. I always enjoyed it there. But i don’t have too much trouble ignoring people and politics.

Like everywhere, pricing has gotten stupid in SWFL. Our place is on Sanibel and I’m not sure we’re going to be able to buy back there with pricing the way it is. We looked at a place in Ft Myers today because I can get water front for $750k less than what it will run me to buy back on Sanibel with a dock. Going to look at Marco up through Anna Maria  and take a look at the Keys and see what we can find. You can’t beat the weather 9 months out of the year, but July/August can suck. However, those 75 degrees day through the winter are awesome.

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mchookem

mchookem 16,336

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2 hours ago, ONE YARD said:

Our house was built in the 1880s and had had a few additions since. Our master bedroom is actually the largest room in the house at 510sf (only reason I know this is that we had plans made up for the addition). It’s pretty badass with a sitting area, full fire place, venturi transom, and many large windows designed to be a breezeway to catch the gulf wind. The other bedrooms are standard size by modern standard.   Our current master bathroom is the old trunk room so it’s pretty small. We are going add a new 210sf master bathroom over a rear flat roof that has been giving me issues.  Our old bathroom will become the bathroom for the new bedroom being built over a side flat roof on the other side of the house.   The original owner was a cotton trader who made a lot of $$ exporting to Europe.  It later become an embassy.    We are lucky in that it all pretty original with all the OG woodwork still unpainted.  

Yep. We have a parlor, masonry ice house (where they used to store blocks of Ice back the day), formal dining room, etc.  my office is now a play room, hence why we are adding a new one.  

Will be four.  So each kid will have their own room and bathroom. Plus a guest area. 

so is your house on the Galveston historic homes tour? we did that once and the homes were just amazing! i loved seeing how they'd been modernized but somehow completely kept all the historical character. and seeing the engineering of how some of them had been raised after 1900 hurricane. 

my favorite was an upper floor condo in an old railroad station downtown. there was one on the east side that still used the original kitchen! rest of the house had a/c onstalled but the kitchen was open and just channeled the natural breezes. no thank you! lol

 

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FORTY NINE TO ZERO

FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2,652

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13 minutes ago, mchookem said:

so is your house on the Galveston historic homes tour? we did that once and the homes were just amazing! i loved seeing how they'd been modernized but somehow completely kept all the historical character. and seeing the engineering of how some of them had been raised after 1900 hurricane. 

my favorite was an upper floor condo in an old railroad station downtown. there was one on the east side that still used the original kitchen! rest of the house had a/c onstalled but the kitchen was open and just channeled the natural breezes. no thank you! lol

 

Ha it actually was going to be a few years ago until my wife became pregnant with our first.  We will likely try to be on it in a few years. Our goal is finish this addition, then get on the historic registry, then tour.  The structure was actually raised 10 feet. We have a basement completely buried under a few feet of sand.  One of these days I’m going to get drunk, crawl under the house and start digging. Bet I find some cool stuff.  
 

happy you enjoy the tour!  We volunteer every year. GHF is a great organization that does a lot for the community. My favorite is their program where they buy dilapidated buildings, restore, and turn them into subsided housing for teachers.   Really needed now with how stupid housing has become (though nothing compared to Austin). 

Edited by ONE YARD
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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 14,920

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So what was Ed's special car that he sold a bunch of them off for?  Has it made an entrance in the neighborhood yet?

He bought the world’s worst Gallardo and brought it to the neighborhood Halloween party yesterday. No word on what else he might be buying. He got another Murcie roadster but I think he’s going to flip it. He had a line on a burned up Chiron but it didn’t work out.

I do know what his next adventure is going to be but I’ll let that be a surprise.
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Incredulity

Incredulity 11,671

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Was fucking around on Zillow.

This shocked the shit out of me.  WTF is going on in Bozeman.

 
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Bevo

Bevo 13,577

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16 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Was fucking around on Zillow.

This shocked the shit out of me.  WTF is going on in Bozeman.

 

It is happening around the country. I'm looking to build in the mountains and we were looking at $350/sqft last year. 2600sqft home was coming in around $1Mil. I'm hoping I can get it to the $200/sqft range 'cuz there is no way I'm spending a mil on a vacation home.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11,671

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Just now, Bevo said:

It is happening around the country. I'm looking to build in the mountains and we were looking at $350/sqft last year. 2600sqft home was coming in around $1Mil. I'm hoping I can get it to the $200/sqft range 'cuz there is no way I'm spending a mil on a vacation home.

I agree that shit is out of control. 

Besides the comparison of new custom construction and existing 1950's vintage shithole house not being apples to apples, these prices really surprised me.  Those are Austin, California suburbs,....type prices for a scenic, but pretty unremarkable college town in Montana(yes I have been there many times).  Or someone school me on the virtue of Bozeman.

 

$649,000

ad5ddad29f3e5a8524f3f5b840ef3258-cc_ft_9

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8,397

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On 10/29/2021 at 1:06 PM, gmr548 said:

Nice. I am a big believer that additional square footage is more trouble than it's worth after a certain point. The average new build size has nearly doubled over the past 50 years and it's just extra space to fill up with shit and pay for climate control. American consumers often take the Kyle Flood size queen approach to house shopping though. To each his own I guess.

This is a very good point and one people ignore when they lament the cost of home ownership.  Your 5,000 sf house is a lot more expensive to maintain than the 2,000 sf house your grandparents and 4 kids shared.

A buddy of mine just bought a monstrous 8000 sf house out in Sugar Land.  He has something like 4 different AC units.  He's on a two acre lot.  It's a really cool house, but his maintenance costs are an absolute bitch.

You need a new roof?  Well it's double or triple what it would cost for a normal sized house.

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8,397

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On 10/29/2021 at 1:35 PM, Chewbacca said:

Absolutely agree.  I would never own a house over ~3500sf.  And that's on the high side.  Would prefer houses under 3000 but they are tough to find.  You almost have to build, especially if you want any kind of land with it.

The issue is with new construction.  If you are in an area with expensive land values, you have to build a two story and big house.  You want to be at least 4,000 sf if you're dropping $750k on the lot.  Because that 4,000 sf house is worth a lot more than a house that sized. 

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8,397

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17 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Do you really need 4200Sq feet?  Of course I live in California, 2000 sq feet is a mansion here.

You need less indoor space in California.  You can set up a very nice outside living area/kitchen and use it year round due to the weather.  My house is 2100 sf.  It felt twice that big this weekend because my back pocket doors were open all weekend and we were outside.

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closetohumping

closetohumping 17,442

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9 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

You need less indoor space in California.  You can set up a very nice outside living area/kitchen and use it year round due to the weather.  My house is 2100 sf.  It felt twice that big this weekend because my back pocket doors were open all weekend and we were outside.

Yea.  I live 15 minutes from the beach.  I consider Newport my backyard

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gmr548

gmr548 16,580

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1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

I agree that shit is out of control. 

Besides the comparison of new custom construction and existing 1950's vintage shithole house not being apples to apples, these prices really surprised me.  Those are Austin, California suburbs,....type prices for a scenic, but pretty unremarkable college town in Montana(yes I have been there many times).  Or someone school me on the virtue of Bozeman.

 

$649,000

ad5ddad29f3e5a8524f3f5b840ef3258-cc_ft_9

Bozeman is literally the poster child for pandemic-induced housing cost explosion. Demand was already strong and went off the charts with the massive shift toward remote work.

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7,779

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59 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

The issue is with new construction.  If you are in an area with expensive land values, you have to build a two story and big house.  You want to be at least 4,000 sf if you're dropping $750k on the lot.  Because that 4,000 sf house is worth a lot more than a house that sized. 

Absolutely.  I get why it is like that and I also get that most people want big houses and I'm not one of them.  My ideal house is ~2500sf on some acreage with a big garage.  Put an apartment over the garage for guests and it's perfect.

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Chopper

Chopper 17,235

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Bozeman real estate market became really hot when that Yellowstone tv show (filmed there) became popular. They don't have a lot of housing supply so prices have gone through the roof.

Institutional money and the way hedge funds can invest and profit while paying zero tax is probably the biggest driver in driving up prices along with a natural migration from the rural US to the cities. Cities simply don't have the housing stock for everyone who wants to live within. With the pandemic anyone who could afford it wanted more space so that's driving a whole separate boom for those who can afford it - either upgrading living space or buying a second house.

This thread reminds me of my grandfather's situation. He lived in PA and owned 10 or so small houses he rented out. It was profitable for awhile but then the steel mill closed and the rental income basically disappeared. When he passed away, my mom inherited the 10 worthless properties. They would have become an albatross of sorts to deal with but state law at the time allowed her to donate the houses to the city, and the city didn't have the choice of whether to accept or reject the donation. It was a couple years later that the city figured out they had gotten stuck with a bunch of random, worthless houses and tried, unsuccessfully, to levy a fine. Fun times.

I never could figure out how it made financial sense to buy a house in Austin and rent it out. I looked at it a few times and projected rent never covered all the expenses, even with the tax benefits. Of course I never figured prices would basically double in a few years --that certainly would move the needle. We moved to Fort Collins last year and prices aren't cheap but they're still reasonable, and property taxes are just a small fraction of home ownership so it makes investing in rentals much more profitable. Buying a few rentals was one of the first things I did. This was with retirement money that would have otherwise been in the stock market. Fuck if I understand the stock market anymore so I was happy to reduce some of my exposure by divesting into real estate. 

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Brew

Brew 3,049

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I can remember before getting married saying I would never spend X on a house or have a house over Y size. Then I got married and it’s been a steady size climb since. We’re adding 600 square feet onto our current house with our oldest of two kids just about to college which makes no sense. That doesn’t include the 600 sq feet of covered outside space being added. There is such a run up in size now, you almost have to have it for resale. With our 2nd home selling, we’re thinking about buying a lot and building but we only need 2000 or so square feet and are concerned that it needs to be bigger from a resale perspective.

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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 14,920

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This is a very good point and one people ignore when they lament the cost of home ownership.  Your 5,000 sf house is a lot more expensive to maintain than the 2,000 sf house your grandparents and 4 kids shared.
A buddy of mine just bought a monstrous 8000 sf house out in Sugar Land.  He has something like 4 different AC units.  He's on a two acre lot.  It's a really cool house, but his maintenance costs are an absolute bitch.
You need a new roof?  Well it's double or triple what it would cost for a normal sized house.

Cmon hailstorm!
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Goredho

Goredho 17,406

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On 11/1/2021 at 9:18 AM, Incredulity said:

Was fucking around on Zillow.

This shocked the shit out of me.  WTF is going on in Bozeman.

 

I don’t know if this applies to Bozeman, but in our neck of the Rockies, the pandemic drove a crazy real estate boom.  People have needed vacations in the worst way, but a lot of them haven’t wanted to fly or cruise.  They didn’t want to go to crowded destinations like Disney.  They wanted a rural place that they could drive to and vacation at with only close relatives/friends in covid safety.  VRBO’s were completely booked last year and this year.  A lot of people who wouldn’t normally buy vacation homes started doing it.  We sold our place near Breckenridge, CO for a ridiculous amount relative to what we paid in 2017.  It was bought by 3 families who pooled their resources and are presumably going to have their own private time share.

Odds are, this is all a pandemic bubble.  That people will get more comfortable vacationing in all the ways they used to, the horde of buyers disappears and prices fall back to what they were before the pandemic.  Or maybe not.  What the fuck do I know?

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Bookman

Bookman 4,639

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On 10/28/2021 at 11:47 AM, Chewbacca said:

The borrowers can sell them before the banks can foreclose.  I'm not saying there will be no foreclosures, but I'm not seeing some foreclosure tsunami.  I see a lot of houses about to be sold.

Just got a new file on my desk involving a foreclosure in Round Rock. Substantial, substantial equity. Looks like the homeowners listed it at the last minute and it closed after the foreclosure sale.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15,298

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7 hours ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Yeah, I'd imagine that lots folks who bought their first house during the pandemic due to cabin fever will have regrets when they have to start looking at maintenance costs and stuff as well.

And/or when the value drops.  This was a huge driver in the HAMP/HARP mods.  Not that people couldn't make their payments, but rather they just didn't want to keep paying on an asset worth less than the note they owed.  

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15,298

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Just now, Bookman said:

One thing I’ve seen recently is the attorneys conducting the foreclosure sale taking, in my opinion, unconscionable fees for conducting the foreclosure. They see all that extra money and can’t keep their hands off of it.

This isn't new.  Same point I made earlier.  We saw this in 2008 as well.  

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9,083

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Is there a housing  correction in the offing ?  Do the low interest rates hold that at bay or hasten it  if we see a down turn in the economy ?

trying to wrap up the cleaning and renovation of my late fathers home, and have been trying to figure out if it’s time to stop where I am and sell or complete the process. 
 

Renovations are complete  except kitchen and master bath . We filled 3 construction dumpsters before we could figure out how to clean it, and just get it to where assessed value could be realized.
 

With  the stupid long lead times for cabinetry, I’m a little concerned the tide could change before spring  if we wait.

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9,083

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7 minutes ago, Bookman said:

One thing I’ve seen recently is the attorneys conducting the foreclosure sale taking, in my opinion, unconscionable fees for conducting the foreclosure. They see all that extra money and can’t keep their hands off of it.

Attorneys capitalizing on the misfortune of others ??!! 
 

Say it ain’t so !!!

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Bookman

Bookman 4,639

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4 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

This isn't new.  Same point I made earlier.  We saw this in 2008 as well.  

What's sad to me is that there was over five times more equity than the outstanding indebtedness, not counting fees and default interest. The bank was certainly adequately protected.

But hey, the bank just wants to get its money back, right?

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Bookman

Bookman 4,639

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On 11/4/2021 at 1:48 PM, BabaYaga said:

This isn't new.  Same point I made earlier.  We saw this in 2008 as well.  

New file this morning. Looks to be almost $180,000 in equity based on the foreclosure price, but the trustee is saying no excess proceeds. 

And banks just want to recover their money, right?

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