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hornchaud

hornchaud 4

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, WBT said:

Someone explain Bama at #2 to me.  1-1 against ranked teams.  Loss to aggy.  Close escapes against shitty Florida and LSU.  Best win against Ole Miss.  2nd best win against...Miami?  Miss St?

 

Was that a rhetorical question?  The SEC has the top undefeated, 1-loss, 2-loss, and 3-loss teams in the CFP rankings...

1. Georgia (9-0)
2. Alabama (8-1)
11. Texas A&M (7-2)
17. Auburn (6-3)

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mdmost

mdmost 42,775

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, WBT said:

Someone explain Bama at #2 to me.  1-1 against ranked teams.  Loss to aggy.  Close escapes against shitty Florida and LSU.  Best win against Ole Miss.  2nd best win against...Miami?  Miss St?

 

It's Bama. They're always going to get the benefit of the doubt. The committee wants two SEC teams in the playoff if they can get them. It's also to insulate Georgia if they lose in the SEC Championship if Bama makes it there. 

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Js1

Js1 85,055

Posted
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, WBT said:

Someone explain Bama at #2 to me.  1-1 against ranked teams.  Loss to aggy.  Close escapes against shitty Florida and LSU.  Best win against Ole Miss.  2nd best win against...Miami?  Miss St?

 

If I had to guess:

39-32 record of the teams they have played (55% WP)
Last second FG loss on the road to 7-2 aggy

That last data point isn't going to hurt them much in the eyes of the committee since aggy has righted the ship.  If aggy finishes 9-3 (only losing to Ole Miss), that loss won't look terrible for Bama at all.  

They still have games against ranked Arky and Auburn so it will all shake out.  Their remaining schedule is 13-14, but that's because NMSU is bad.  The other 2 games left are 2 ranked, currently 6-3 teams.  Then it's UGA if they win the West.

Alabama at #2 is like OU at #8 - it will all shake out in the last month. 

Edited by Js1
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bullet 1,596

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, WBT said:

Someone explain Bama at #2 to me.  1-1 against ranked teams.  Loss to aggy.  Close escapes against shitty Florida and LSU.  Best win against Ole Miss.  2nd best win against...Miami?  Miss St?

 

Eye test.  They have big, strong fast players and they are always in the playoffs.

Its why we need to get away from this beauty contest and have something more like a real playoff as in the 6-6 model.

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bullet 1,596

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Pam Cummings said:

I'm actually of the opinion that Michigan is a better team than Sparty, and that Sparty played above their heads to beat them. But i also understand that the committee's reasoning is completely asinine and subject to change if for example Alabama beats Georgia head to head.

At least Sparty has a win over a good team.  Michigan beat Western Michigan, Northern illinois, Washington, Rutgers, Northwestern, Indiana, Wisconsin and Nebraska.  5 teams with losing records, 2 MAC teams and Wisconsin.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,517

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Pam Cummings said:

I'm actually of the opinion that Michigan is a better team than Sparty, and that Sparty played above their heads to beat them. But i also understand that the committee's reasoning is completely asinine and subject to change if for example Alabama beats Georgia head to head.

Yeah, I hear that a lot, seems like it's been said many times over the last dozen years or so.

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34,313

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, WBT said:

Georgia, OU, Oregon, Ohio State

Cinci and Bama close for 5th

Oregon has a better win than Bama but the loss to Stanford is far worse than Bama’s loss. Their close wins over UCLA and Cal are also not awesome. Putting Bama tied with Cincy is absurd, Bama mops the floor with the Bearkats and the whole world knows it.

Alabama gets the benefit of the doubt over Oregon and Cincy for good reason. 

 

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WBT

WBT 20,397

Posted
Posted

Georgia - undefeated in power 5

OU - undefeated in power 5

Oregon - win at the shoe at midafternoon.  I think that's a clear enough best win to have them above every one loss team.  I'll admit their loss to Stanford (in OT at least) wasn't great.

The teams below are pretty close in my mind.

Ohio St - win over Penn St, all wins by at least 2 scores (barely)

Cinci - Their win @ND is the 2nd best in this group but is offset by their last 3 games against poor competition being close at halftime, with 2 of them going down to the wire.

Bama - 1-1 vs Ole Miss and aggy, close escapes vs Florida and LSU

Michigan St

Michigan

ND

Okie St

 

 

 

 

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Js1

Js1 85,055

Posted
Posted

Just for shit and gigs - the top 8 teams in the CFP:

  Win Loss Opp WP% Upcoming WP % Games Against .500+
Georgia 9 0 0.555 0.423 6
Alabama 8 1 0.55 0.481 6
Oregon 8 1 0.463 0.592 2
Ohio State 8 1 0.469 0.815 4
Cincinnati 9 0 0.415 0.519 2
Michigan 8 1 0.512 0.704 4
Michigan State 8 1 0.469 0.667 4
OU 9 0 0.378 0.778 2
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LTbear

LTbear 4,152

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Just for shit and gigs - the top 8 teams in the CFP:

  Win Loss Opp WP% Upcoming WP % Games Against .500+
Georgia 9 0 0.555 0.423 6
Alabama 8 1 0.55 0.481 6
Oregon 8 1 0.463 0.592 2
Ohio State 8 1 0.469 0.815 4
Cincinnati 9 0 0.415 0.519 2
Michigan 8 1 0.512 0.704 4
Michigan State 8 1 0.469 0.667 4
OU 9 0 0.378 0.778 2

Pretty good way of looking at it. It's obvious Alabama does in fact have a pretty strong record, and that OU doesn't belong in the top 4 yet; they're undefeated against a thus far weakass schedule and had to make a roaring comeback against Kansas. 

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34,313

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, LTbear said:

Pretty good way of looking at it. It's obvious Alabama does in fact have a pretty strong record, and that OU doesn't belong in the top 4 yet; they're undefeated against a thus far weakass schedule and had to make a roaring comeback against Kansas. 

And that Cincy in the CFP based on their record is an absolute joke. It’s very nice they played a good game against a good Notre Dame team but woof, the rest of the schedule is ugly. 
 

And let’s not pretend every sub-.500 or even .500 team is created equally. Which college coach says that it’s equal to them whether they play a sub-.500 LSU or some AAC team? None.

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Js1

Js1 85,055

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

And that Cincy in the CFP based on their record is an absolute joke. It’s very nice they played a good game against a good Notre Dame team but woof, the rest of the schedule is ugly. 
 

And let’s not pretend every sub-.500 or even .500 team is created equally. Which college coach says that it’s equal to them whether they play a sub-.500 LSU or some AAC team? None.

I mean, I wasn't going to go THAT into detail.  I thought about doing best win/worst loss/"best" loss but that's too subjective.

Georgia, Alabama and Michigan have played a legit schedule so far
Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State all finish with tough ass schedules (OSU/MSU and OSU/Michigan and MSU/Penn State)
OU has 3 games to prove themselves against OSU, Baylor, ISU if they're for real and deserving or not because they have played nobody
Alabama has the "best" loss - last second FG on the road against a 7-2 team.... they just aren't going to get punished for that. 

Edited by Js1
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utee94

utee94 15,742

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I mean, I wasn't going to go THAT into detail.  I thought about doing best win/worst loss/"best" loss but that's too subjective.

Georgia, Alabama and Michigan have played a legit schedule so far
Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State all finish with tough ass schedules (OSU/MSU and OSU/Michigan and MSU/Penn State)
OU has 3 games to prove themselves against OSU, Baylor, ISU if they're for real and deserving or not because they have played nobody
Alabama has the "best" loss - last second FG on the road against a 7-2 team.... they just aren't going to get punished for that. 

Right, and I believe if they win out they'll get a rematch with one of those same 3 teams as well, in the B12 CCG.

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Js1

Js1 85,055

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Right, and I believe if they win out they'll get a rematch with one of those same 3 teams as well, in the B12 CCG.

Yep.  OU and the three team pileup atop the B1G have plenty of showcases the next few weeks.  #1 and #2 on a collision course if Bama gets past Auburn. 

Hell, Oregon has Utah and could face Utah again in the Pac 12 CCG.

We are in for a wild finish in CFB. 

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bullet 1,596

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Js1 said:

I mean, I wasn't going to go THAT into detail.  I thought about doing best win/worst loss/"best" loss but that's too subjective.

Georgia, Alabama and Michigan have played a legit schedule so far
Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State all finish with tough ass schedules (OSU/MSU and OSU/Michigan and MSU/Penn State)
OU has 3 games to prove themselves against OSU, Baylor, ISU if they're for real and deserving or not because they have played nobody
Alabama has the "best" loss - last second FG on the road against a 7-2 team.... they just aren't going to get punished for that. 

Who has Michigan played???  Other than Michigan St. (loss) and Wisconsin, they've played the dregs of the Big 10.

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Js1

Js1 85,055

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, bullet said:

Who has Michigan played???  Other than Michigan St. (loss) and Wisconsin, they've played the dregs of the Big 10.

NIU is a pretty solid G5 program.  7-3 right now.   They play PSU and OSU in the next few weeks, let's see.

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ztejas

ztejas 43,244

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, WBT said:

Georgia, OU, Oregon, Ohio State

Cinci and Bama close for 5th

 

6 hours ago, WBT said:

Georgia - undefeated in power 5

OU - undefeated in power 5

Oregon - win at the shoe at midafternoon.  I think that's a clear enough best win to have them above every one loss team.  I'll admit their loss to Stanford (in OT at least) wasn't great.

The teams below are pretty close in my mind.

Ohio St - win over Penn St, all wins by at least 2 scores (barely)

Cinci - Their win @ND is the 2nd best in this group but is offset by their last 3 games against poor competition being close at halftime, with 2 of them going down to the wire.

Bama - 1-1 vs Ole Miss and aggy, close escapes vs Florida and LSU

Michigan St

Michigan

ND

Okie St

 

 

 

 

You gave a solid criteria and are sticking to your guns. I think Bama is better than OU so were it to start tomorrow I'd have them in but the "undefeated P5" criterion solves itself by the end of the year so it doesn't really matter. 

Sure Ohio State has a "better loss" than UO but they've looked almost as beatable as OU at times against other competition. Oregon's worst result (outside of Stanford) is probably edging Cal by 7 at home. Wins @UCLA and Fresno at home are both fairly solid regardless of margin. Oregon is a bit like OU in that they don't always blow the opposition out but they find a way to win almost every week (and OU could have at least 1 loss by now).

Edited by ztejas
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Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Js1 said:

NIU is a pretty solid G5 program.  7-3 right now.   They play PSU and OSU in the next few weeks, let's see.

They are the ONLY MAC team with less than 4 losses.  MAC is in a virtual tie with CUSA for the worst conference according to the Massey Composite.

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10,734

Posted
Posted

meanwhile, the rest of college football goes on.....

okie lite actually has a chance with some help

bama set up to fuck cincy no lube

1. Georgia10-0

2. Alabama9-1

3. Oregon9-1

4. Ohio State9-1

5. Cincinnati10-0

6. Michigan9-1

7. Michigan State9-1

8. Notre Dame9-1

9. Oklahoma State9-1

10. Wake Forest9-1

11. Baylor8-2

12. Mississippi8-2

13. Oklahoma9-1

14. BYU8-2

15. Wisconsin6-3

16. Texas A&M7-3

17. Iowa8-2

18. Pittsburgh8-2

19. San Diego State9-1

20. NC State7-3

21. Arkansas7-3

22. UTSA10-0

23. Utah7-3

24. Houston9-1

25. Mississippi State6-4

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El Diablo

El Diablo 4,232

Posted
Posted

Okay, now they're just messing with Cincy keeping their hopes alive. I think a lot of people were hoping that Cincy would roll some mf'ers and earn that spot but it just hasn't happened and record alone doesn't qualify one for the #5 spot (see UTSA). It might seem wrong but I'd be okay if they started dropping Cincy due to unimpressive wins. Competition has to count for something.

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chitown bevo

chitown bevo 17

Posted
Posted
On 11/11/2021 at 3:27 PM, bullet said:

Who has Michigan played???  Other than Michigan St. (loss) and Wisconsin, they've played the dregs of the Big 10.

The method here from Barta and CFP is to prop up the rankings for Big 10 teams as much as possible so that Ohio State in the playoffs is secured. The loss to Oregon and the near loss to Nebraska are easier to ignore when they can say look OSU took out two ranked Michigan teams..... whatever its all BS and real playoff is needed. Ignored the announcement last night. The Bama deal and OSU are crap, and so is Michigan deal. Head to Head losses only matter when it suits the CFP jagbags.

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Make em eat Taco Bell

Make em eat Taco Bell 1,549

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, n64ra said:

Final four will be

1 loss Bama

1 loss Big 10 champion (probably (tOSU)

1 loss Oregon

1 loss Georgia

First ones out will be

undefeated Cincy

1 loss ND

1 loss OU

 

suppose GA beats Bama in the SEC CCG? will an 11-2 Bama get in over any 1 loss conference champ?

the Mich State-Ohio State game will get all the hype this weekend but IMO the game of the day is SMU  @ Cincinatti. Pony has a legit shot at an upset, starts 2.30pm. 

UTSA is being terribly disrespected. 

Again we see that a 12 or 16 team playoff isn't necessary.  I'm for 8 to get all the P5 champs and 3 others which allows for a Cincy and UTSA to get in. 

 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,517

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

  I'm for 8 to get all the P5 champs and 3 others which allows for a Cincy and UTSA to get in. 

 

I'm not sure both would get in - Power 5, plus Alabama/Georgia loser, and highest ranked MSU/UM/OSU from B1G not in conf championship, or OU/ND; there will only ever be 1 spot for non-P5 conference teams (don't think that the expansion means the money grubbing P5 are going to share any more than they have to) 

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'stache

'stache 21,743

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

suppose GA beats Bama in the SEC CCG? will an 11-2 Bama get in over any 1 loss conference champ?

the Mich State-Ohio State game will get all the hype this weekend but IMO the game of the day is SMU  @ Cincinatti. Pony has a legit shot at an upset, starts 2.30pm. 

UTSA is being terribly disrespected. 

Again we see that a 12 or 16 team playoff isn't necessary.  I'm for 8 to get all the P5 champs and 3 others which allows for a Cincy and UTSA to get in. 

 

I think Oregon is going to lose @ Utah. 

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n64ra

n64ra 1,075

Posted
Posted
On 11/17/2021 at 10:04 AM, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

suppose GA beats Bama in the SEC CCG? will an 11-2 Bama get in over any 1 loss conference champ?

the Mich State-Ohio State game will get all the hype this weekend but IMO the game of the day is SMU  @ Cincinatti. Pony has a legit shot at an upset, starts 2.30pm. 

UTSA is being terribly disrespected. 

Again we see that a 12 or 16 team playoff isn't necessary.  I'm for 8 to get all the P5 champs and 3 others which allows for a Cincy and UTSA to get in. 

 

If UGA beats Bama, it depends on the score. A blow out means 11-2 Bama is left out of the CFP. A close game (especially with a UGA game winning drive under two minutes) means both UGA and Bama make the CFP.

 

 

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VABuckeye

VABuckeye 2,472

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, n64ra said:

If UGA beats Bama, it depends on the score. A blow out means 11-2 Bama is left out of the CFP. A close game (especially with a UGA game winning drive under two minutes) means both UGA and Bama make the CFP.

 

 

I disagree Alabama would get in with that scenario alone.  At least one 1 loss team that is lurking would have to lose as well and particularly so if it would slot Alabama into the 4 seed.  No one outside of Alabama wants to see that rematch in the semi-finals.

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Homercles

Homercles 10,205

Posted
Posted

Can, for once in recent memory, some of these scenarios actually play out?  OKState (I’m biased), MSU, Cincy, etc…please?

Otherwise my proposal is 6-teams:  Alabama, Georgia, OU, Ohio State, Clemson, and I guess ND.  Put them all in a 12-game circle jerk on a dedicated ESPN channel.  Let everyone else play a normal schedule on other networks and actually compete on merit towards a ‘playoff’ that makes sense. 
 

(Obviously this would screw everyone else in recruiting, conference affiliation, rivalries, etc…but I’m so fucking tired of this debate on how much Georgia winning/losing to Alabama should impact whether they both get it in, it’s obvious the tv markets want the same damn teams going at it every year). 

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bullet 1,596

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Homercles said:

Can, for once in recent memory, some of these scenarios actually play out?  OKState (I’m biased), MSU, Cincy, etc…please?

Otherwise my proposal is 6-teams:  Alabama, Georgia, OU, Ohio State, Clemson, and I guess ND.  Put them all in a 12-game circle jerk on a dedicated ESPN channel.  Let everyone else play a normal schedule on other networks and actually compete on merit towards a ‘playoff’ that makes sense. 
 

(Obviously this would screw everyone else in recruiting, conference affiliation, rivalries, etc…but I’m so fucking tired of this debate on how much Georgia winning/losing to Alabama should impact whether they both get it in, it’s obvious the tv markets want the same damn teams going at it every year). 

Saban will retire eventually.  Alabama pre-Saban was worse than Texas post-Mack.

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n64ra

n64ra 1,075

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, VABuckeye said:

I disagree Alabama would get in with that scenario alone.  At least one 1 loss team that is lurking would have to lose as well and particularly so if it would slot Alabama into the 4 seed.  No one outside of Alabama wants to see that rematch in the semi-finals.

I'd love for you to be right as I tire of Alabama; however, the CFP has quite the hard-on for them. Going through it:

Two 1 loss teams are losing out of Ohio St, Michigan, and Michigan St. Oklahoma or Oklahoma St will lose a game. Let's say Ohio St, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame win out, which seems reasonable. That means you think either:

  • Wake Forest is winning out - Seems unlikely, but the CFP will argue they only only played one ranked team, #25 NC St during the regular season plus probably Pitt in CCG.
  • Oklahoma jumps 9 or more spots - Best candidate since that's probably back to back Oklahoma St wins, but man, has the CFP shat all over them this season.
  • the CFP picks Cincinnati over 2 loss Alabama - Pretty clear the CFP hates G5 schools. It has to happen once before I believe it will happen.
  • the CFP picks 1 loss Notre Dame over the undefeated team that beat them, Cincinnati - You know the CFP wants too, but even they don't have the balls to say we'll place Notre Dame over the undefeated team that beat them. If that lone loss was to anyone else - even Toledo - the CFP would put Notre Dame in.

 

Edited by n64ra
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n64ra

n64ra 1,075

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 11/19/2021 at 1:02 PM, ztejas said:

Not sure about that. They've been ranking Michigan above St. and have multiple 1 loss teams above Cincy already. 

That would be the ultimate FU move - rank Cincy over ND all season in the CFP, both teams win this weekend, Cincy plays an extra CCG game and wins it, then the CFP swaps ND and Cincy's spots in the final CFP rankings.

Edited by n64ra
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