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Texas Recruiting Notes 2021

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1 in coaches were made aware late last night 

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offense   ✍️

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19212

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19 minutes ago, westexhorn said:

per TFB Clemson leading Mukuba

As always, HtownHorn has his finger on the pulse of Texas recruiting. 

7 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

What's crazy is Texas has a puncher's chance of sweeping the defensive board remaining of Turner, Ish, Coffey, Cooks, Harmon, Mukaba, and Smith.

Leaving 2-3 ships left for Burris, Jones, and a few others.

 

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satyanash

satyanash 15359

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(Eric Nahlin) Humidor: Corona leads to mass uncertainty, multiple scenarios, and recruiting goes virtual - 5/8/20

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Perhaps things will become more clear in the coming weeks and months, but right now, anyone confident in how things will play out with the football season is fooling themselves or trying to fool you. There are a lot of moving parts to account for: safety, economics, politics, academics, etc. Compounding the problem, each school and conference comes with its own unique considerations and self-interests.

Until recently I was privately fairly confident the season would start on time, but after talking it over with some people more in the know, I’m not so sure. At this point I can see any situation playing out, other than canceling the season. Beyond the Dunning-Kruger effect, I’ll detail how I got to my current state of uncertainty. Quotes are from sources ranging from people involved in academics at UT, healthcare, college coaches, and an agent.

Safety:

”It’s one thing to tell a frontline nurse or doctor to go out in the open, but it’s another to tell someone to go play football. Players aren’t wearing PPE, they’re sweating all over each other, and by the way, they’re not getting paid.“ While players are not in a vulnerable demographic, playing the season in the middle of a pandemic opens schools up to litigation if a player contracts the virus, regardless of severity.

Players could sign a waiver, but the validity of one would be called into question given how much leverage the school holds in relation to the players. ”What about fans, do you play without them in the stands? The best way to get Covid is to be around others for a prolonged period of time. How close can fans sit, how many do you let in? This not only impacts safety, but also critical gate receipts and concessions.”

Economics:

“We make a lot of money, but we spend a lot of money too.” - Patrick Ewing in the middle of a player’s strike - NCAA Athletic Departments. AD budgets are heavily reliant on not only football, but fans showing up in person rather than watching on TV. “Most programs lose money even with fans in attendance. College sports simply don’t work without fans showing up to football games. No fans might be a solution, but it’s a bad one. It at least helps with TV.”

”Ticket sales, concessions, buying a program or whatever, this is a significant amount of each school’s budget. Let’s use Iowa State as an example. Small budget, small inflows, they barely make any money. Thirty-five percent comes from tickets, concessions, apparel. If they don’t get the fans in they go from being break-even to losing millions. This is why the ISUs of the world will want a delayed start, even if that means beginning the season in January. Gate receipts, concessions, game day products for most programs are more money than conference allocation. These schools need people in the seats.”

”Texas and OU definitely need gate receipts too but those are the only two schools that could make it work. UT would run a massive loss but CDC can make it work through borrowing from the LHF. Almost everyone else can’t make it work other than private schools like Baylor and TCU.“

Politics:

“The SEC is pushing real hard to be the only football played in the fall. It wouldn’t hurt their feelings one bit if the only thing on TV worth watching in the United States was SEC football. They’re perfectly fine with the haves versus have-nots playing out. The likelihood this plays out is very small. The NCAA will be against the SEC going it alone. They’re cognizant of that widening the gap between not only individual schools but conferences. They’ll want conferences to coalesce around a uniform start.”

Academics:

“Universities are assuming people won’t go back to class in the fall, or at least they’re preparing for that. Schools are dependent on tuition and are posturing like it’s business as usual because people are wondering, ‘Why would I spend 50k this year on TCU/SMU or whoever when I can have my child at home and take online classes somewhere much cheaper, then transfer back when things clear up?’” Texas will announce plans for the fall semester as they evolve, with resolution coming by the end of June.

Possible scenarios:

“Most likely scenario is distance educating with no sports in the fall but a January start to football. But we could see a late September or early October start with just the conference slate being played.” - Cigar with ties to ADs and university higher ups

“The SEC, Conference USA, and the Big 12 are playing regardless. Schools in the AAC that are affected are looking at going to other states to play.” - Agent tied into ADs across the country

”I think the season will be played barring no major setbacks once things open up.” - Big 12 coach. I reached out to him to make me feel better. I knew he’d say what I wanted to hear. Like everyone else, he doesn’t know for sure. I know some ADs would prefer they allow for schools to opt in then create a new schedule based on that rather than ‘whole conference in, whole conference out.’ This would allow for individual choices within conferences. It‘s not likely, but it would be wild and sure sum up 2020.” - Cigar

Buckle up, you all.

STATE OF RECRUITING

Four commitments within an eight day stretch, including two for the 2021 class, makes quarantine life a bit more tolerable for connoisseurs of recruiting. The players are a nice mix of immediate help like WR Tarik Black, filling a remaining need in the 2020 class like CB Jahdae Barron, another key piece to what should be a stellar defensive line haul like DL Jordon Thomas, and a great fit at tight end like TE Landen King.

As we move closer to the summer, we’re noticing more and more recruits getting antsy. Call it cabin fever, say it’s securing a spot amid so much uncertainty, or maybe these guys have had plenty of time to think about their decisions lately. Let’s take a quick look at specific targets and also get a better idea of where wide receiver recruiting is currently sitting.

- Clayton Smith is getting some buzz. The 2021 Texas High OLB/DE from Texarkana is dropping his top 6 list this Sunday, on Mother’s Day because he’s a good son. Texas will be in it and they remain one of his top schools. He insists he’ll give his choice a silent commitment late in the season and announces at the All-American Game in San Antonio. Smith’s longer timeline will allow for other schools to push. OU, Florida State, and LSU are all very interested.

Main takeaways: I still think UT leads and he doesn’t sound like a kid ready to commit.

- Shemar Turner remains a popular individual. The 2021 Desoto defensive lineman is the leader of a talent-rich group on defense and has a presence about him. Turner and Texas continue to build a strong relationship. The four-star speaks with Oscar Giles, Mark Hagen, and Chris Ash via FaceTime. Turner maintains he wants to take his time and take his trips. If/when the Horns host him for an official visit, we should have a great idea where this recruitment will lead. Like Smith, he’s on a longer timeline.

- Tristan Bounds likes Texas more than you think. The 6-foot-8, 275-pound offensive tackle offer from Choate Rosemary Hall (CT) is A highly intelligent prospect with interesting upside. He dropped a top 8 recently, but I hear he’s got a personal top 3 - Michigan, Notre Dame, and Texas. Bounds really likes Herb Hand and UT’s academic menu. He’s determined to take a visit to Austin before he makes his decision. I think UT views him as a take, but maybe second tier.

A lot of dominoes remain with the 2021 offensive line class but there’s no shortage of positive options for the Longhorns in this cycle.

- About that wide receiver recruiting. There’s good news and there’s bad news. Two steps forward, one step back; Texas is in great standing with Ketron Jackson and Hal Presley. But, Teddy Knox is trending southeast.

Jackson, the four-star .92 composite pass-catcher from Royse City via Lancaster, is getting closer to the Texas staff. The 6-foot-2, 190-pounder holds double-digit offers from schools like Alabama, Auburn, and Florida. Running a 22.12 200 meters and 24-7 3/4 long jump will grab attention. Baylor and TCU will be the Horns’ biggest threats, and we know TCU is not to be discounted when it comes to recruiting the position.

Jackson says he’s eager to see Austin when it’s finally allowed, and maintains they’re his “dream school.” The sincerity of the term “dream school” isn’t what it once was but he seems to mean it. As for Presley, it’s status quo. The underrated Mansfield Summit wide receiver is finding time to get work in with his trainer, whenever possible. Texas is a big fan and vice versa.

About Theodore Knox, I’m hearing Mississippi State has the lead in these sweepstakes. I’m unsure of his timeline, but this might be subtly trending away from Texas for awhile. The Louisiana native loves the SEC, and has relationships established across the conference, especially in Starkville. It feels like this position really needs stability more than the others.

- Prepare to see and read more about virtual visits. Texas has begun to setting them up, including a visit with defensive end prospect Kelvin Gilliam today. Players get a specific time, log in, and begin. They should make these like a video game. The plan is to allow the students to explore different options about UT and the football program in a virtual setting. Not only for the current times, but this is probably the next innovation in recruiting. Herman’s guys have potentially taken a big step ahead with this. We’ll see how they go.

 

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Fud

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1 hour ago, westexhorn said:

per TFB Clemson leading Mukuba

Their mod said this last week

He hasn't visited yet, and Dabo doesn't let prospects commit until they visit, so there's time for them to fill up first 

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Fud

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Clemson might be taking only one safety this class, and since they have several studs on their radar at the position, they aren't really pushing for any of them because they're still evaluating the best option. I don't think Dabo would let Mukuba even commit right now because he hasn't visited, and who knows when he'll be able to visit?

Safety Khari Gee has a top two of LSU and Clemson, and he got Fong'd to LSU yesterday, but the Clemson mod (Annal Hickey, who actually seems to do a good job) thinks that LSU is leading for the moment because they're pushing, but that could change if Clemson decides to prioritize him. 

Various safety options mentioned for Clemson (along with Mukuba) are:

https://247sports.com/Player/Khari-Gee-46076916/

https://247sports.com/Player/Derrick-Davis-Jr-46049676/

https://247sports.com/Player/Kendal-Daniels-46080278/

https://247sports.com/Player/James-Williams-46049981/

https://247sports.com/Player/Sage-Ryan-46082413/

I'm fairly certain Sage Ryan is an LSU lock, but Clemson is a school you can never count out regardless of the headwinds in a recruitment. Their posters seem to be hoping for Daniels and Davis, fwiw. 

And while I really like Mukuba as a prospect, I'm wondering if Clemson is only taking one safety in this class, is he really the best they can get? 

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texifornia

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3 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

Brooks is getting a bunch of Texas picks on Rivals.  Could be next commit.

No complaints about locking in an RB2 early.

Re: WRs, I think the combination of this staff consistently being pretty good and selective at in-state offers comes with the flipside that they do take their time, sometimes too much of it, when it comes to evaluation.

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Fud

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5 minutes ago, westexhorn said:

Anyone else have issue with locking in RB2?

No. He's the Derrian Brown of this class, and even the Clemson, LSU, Bama, Ohio State types take lowly ranked RB2s from time to time. You can't tell much from his hudl other than he's on a different level from his competition, so it's a matter of how much you trust the evaluations of the Texas staff. 

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Bevo14

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26 minutes ago, texifornia said:

No complaints about locking in an RB2 early.

Re: WRs, I think the combination of this staff consistently being pretty good and selective at in-state offers comes with the flipside that they do take their time, sometimes too much of it, when it comes to evaluation.

It's still a better way of doing things imo. We'll usually have enough guys to pick from.

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westexhorn

westexhorn 2157

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14 minutes ago, Fud said:

No. He's the Derrian Brown of this class, and even the Clemson, LSU, Bama, Ohio State types take lowly ranked RB2s from time to time. You can't tell much from his hudl other than he's on a different level from his competition, so it's a matter of how much you trust the evaluations of the Texas staff. 

I was just making fun of texifornia for the quad post lol

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texifornia

texifornia 58791

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

So how good is the OT from Connecticut?

https://mobile.twitter.com/bounds_tristan/status/1258515803025977345

Choate's competition is terribad - most of the best athletes in that conference row or play lacrosse. Much like Brooks you'd just have to trust your gut on the eval.

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Hornius Emeritus

Hornius Emeritus 12780

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11 hours ago, Fondren & Main said:

Yeah, I remember.  That dude was an athletic freak.  If the catch was easy, he’d drop it.  If it required a circus maneuver though, he’d make it every time.

That game against Tech was eye opening though.  He proceeded to blow past the defender, then he slowed down because Colt under threw the pass so badly which allowed the coverage to catch up to him.  He catches the ball almost at a complete stop and then takes off leaving the defender in the dust.  The acceleration he showed there was insane.

 

We had another athletic freak named Myron Hardy at WR. If that dude could have kept his head on straight ...

 

 

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Goodman

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40 minutes ago, lemonandaturd said:

How do virtual visits work?  

Curious if there is a dollar limit on what you can spend for these virtual visits or what is permissible during these visits. Hell this is the ncaa, perhaps you're not allowed to deliver food or spend any money on them.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 49330

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7 hours ago, lemonandaturd said:

Georgia has some explaining to do with armed vigilanties shooting joggers. 

Yeah, how exactly do you see that playing out in the living room?


Tom Herman to kid: “Georgia isn’t Safe for African Americans.”

recruit: “coach Herman says Georgia isn’t safe, there’s armed vigilantes shooting innocent joggers.”

Kirbt Smart: “The guy who coaches in a state that has Vidor and Jasper is really pointing fingers at other states being unsafe for African Americans?”

Now find the state thst hasn’t had a shitty BLM police shooting, or a race related murder in the past 10 years, or a super racist past, or...you get the idea. Didn’t really think this one through, did ya?

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SydneyCarton

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I don’t feel like it’s been 10 years at all. Mack Brown evaluated like shit at the end of his tenure. In fact, Brown frustrations started (for many of us at least) after the national title and him failing to kick recruiting up a gear and doing what Bama and Clemson and LSU do now. He could have been the first but he got lazy after the national title. That’s a different kind of infuriating frustration. 
 

charlie i don’t think anyone ever felt like he was a great evaluator. He recruited like 2 months a year. His staff was inept. Herman evaluates well. Honestly, Herman has vision, he evaluates, and he recruits well. If it wasn’t for his ego and personality and the stubborn insistence he knows more than everyone while ignoring the obvious, he’d be a top tier college coach, imo. Shame those few flaws are really, really big ones. Well see how this new staff coaches. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
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Gut Wagon

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8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Herman evaluates well. Honestly, Herman has vision, he evaluates, and he recruits well. If it wasn’t for his ego and personality and the stubborn insistence he knows more than everyone while ignoring the obvious, he’d be a top tier college coach, imo. Shame those few flaws are really, really big ones. Well see how this new staff coaches. 

Yep. A young coach gets the benefit of the doubt only after he's proved to be a great coach. Tom seems to think getting hired by UT proved he already was a great coach and thus gave him the benefit of the doubt. Hopefully these new assistants will help him see the obvious, but I'm not overly confident of that.

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Hiphopopotamos

Hiphopopotamos 21158

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5 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

Yep. A young coach gets the benefit of the doubt only after he's proved to be a great coach. Tom seems to think getting hired by UT proved he already was a great coach and thus gave him the benefit of the doubt. Hopefully these new assistants will help him see the obvious, but I'm not overly confident of that.

The first step is admitting you've got a problem.  Tom just fired 6 coaches and handed over his offense to the anti-Beck.  I feel like at the very least Herman recognized that his original hand-picked staff was a poor mix of incompetence and bravado. 

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15527

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I don’t feel like it’s been 10 years at all. Mack Brown evaluated like shit at the end of his tenure. In fact, Brown frustrations started (for many of us at least) after the national title and him failing to kick recruiting up a gear and doing what Bama and Clemson and LSU do now. He could have been the first but he got lazy after the national title. That’s a different kind of infuriating frustration. 
 
charlie i don’t think anyone ever felt like he was a great evaluator. He recruited like 2 months a year. His staff was inept. Herman evaluates well. Honestly, Herman has vision, he evaluates, and he recruits well. If it wasn’t for his ego and personality and the stubborn insistence he knows more than everyone while ignoring the obvious, he’d be a top tier college coach, imo. Shame those few flaws are really, really big ones. Well see how this new staff coaches. 


This post is perfectly correct. A masterpiece.
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GotThatFire

GotThatFire 166

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1 hour ago, Poe It Up said:

The State of Recruiting was actually a decent listen this week. They interviewed Andrew Mukuba and he said the vibe at Texas is that the defense is going to be better under Ash, but he definitely seems closer to the Clemson commits. 

Sounds awesome!

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westexhorn

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2 hours ago, Poe It Up said:

The State of Recruiting was actually a decent listen this week. They interviewed Andrew Mukuba and he said the vibe at Texas is that the defense is going to be better under Ash, but he definitely seems closer to the Clemson commits. 

Time to send out more safety offers

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LTtxfan

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2 hours ago, Poe It Up said:

The State of Recruiting was actually a decent listen this week. They interviewed Andrew Mukuba and he said the vibe at Texas is that the defense is going to be better under Ash, but he definitely seems closer to the Clemson commits. 

Here's link for the podcast for anyone interested...

"Jordon Thomas's commitment + interviews with Quinn Ewers and Andrew Mukuba: The State of Recruiting"      (May 8th)

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jordon-thomass-commitment-interviews-quinn-ewers-andrew/id1478796829?i=1000473947724

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TommyGufano

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, westexhorn said:

Time to send out more safety offers

Hopefully Adimora is doing a solid sales job on Jaylin Smith

 

Personally I'm on board with the scenario where Clemson fills up before Mukuba can take a spot. 

 

Edited by TommyGufano
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