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Texas Recruiting Notes 2021

Reese Bennett

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hornfromdallas
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uke

hornfromdallas
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1 in coaches were made aware late last night 

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Machinator

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(CJ Vogel) Quick Hitter | Details Behind Uke’s Decision

Spoiler

After meeting with Uke a few weeks ago for the first time, I originally had thought Stanford and Texas were the teams to beat, with the Longhorns trailing just a bit.

Earlier this week, I made the trip to Parish Episcopal again to catch up with Uke right before his decision. I had heard USC was making a strong push for Uke in the past couple weeks since I had first visited him and that appeared to be the case.

Uke did a phenomenal job of not tipping his hand to anyone during the process. I received hints from a number of sources close to Uke and none were 100% confident which is why I remained a bit uneasy with my confidence level.

After our meeting on Monday, I felt that the Longhorns had made it a closer race. Uke had tremendous things to say about Texas, the city of Austin and his relationship with the new coaching staff. Still, however, I wasn’t confident enough to say Texas led.

This morning, a source hinted at me that Texas should be feeling comfortable which led to me commenting on the NSD thread that I was beginning to feel more confident there.

Well, turns out, Stanford was the pick.

Uke told me after the ceremony that he went to bed last night without having made a decision and woke up this morning knowing Stanford was the place. This morning, he gave the Cardinal staff a call and made them aware of his decision. Shortly after, he submitted his NLI and announced at the ceremony.

I do think Texas was very close in this recruitment, but it’s another example of Stanford being Stanford.

 

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satyanash

satyanash 14529

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Ian Boyd: Does college football have a problem with 5-star hoarding?

Quote

There were 34 high school players that were awarded 5-stars by the 247 composite score in the class of 2021. 5-star players are an interesting breed because they more closely match the reality of recruiting. In reality, the difference between a 2-star, a 3-star, and a 4-star is often less than you’d think. In total the averages should matter but they don’t always, so much hinges on development and developmental curves.

The number of truly transcendent players is also fairly limited. Schools like Alabama restock their defensive line with top rated players every year but there’s typically only one or maybe two guys who are truly transcendent trouble-makers for opposing offenses. In terms of raw athleticism and recognizing elite attributes, 5-star kids often make up a pretty good chunk of the transcendent athletes. Check out the 5-stars on the last five National Championship squads.

2016: Clemson
Mitch Hyatt (left tackle), Dexter Lawrence (nose tackle)

Clemson mostly won the title due to flooding the field with high level targets for Deshaun Watson, but Hyatt was certainly instrumental in protecting their deadly empty formations that flexed out Jordan Leggett and Hunter Renfrow with Mike Williams wide and Lawrence joined forces with some other blue chips to win the trenches for their defense.

2017: Alabama
Damien Harris (running back), Calvin Ridley (wide receiver), Robert Foster (wide receiver), Jonah Williams (left tackle), Da’Shawn Hand (defensive end), Da’Ron Payne (nose tackle), RaShaan Evans (linebacker), Minkah Fitzpatrick (nickel)

Alabama would have lost the title if not for Tua Tagovailoa stepping in to throw bombs to their multiple 5-star receiving talents. This was the last great Alabama defense and it was powered mostly by 5-stars Da’Ron Payne at the nose and then Minkah Fitzpatrick playing nickel or dime and taking away the seams in coverage.

2018: Clemson
Trevor Lawrence (quarterback), Tee Higgins (wide receiver), Mitch Hyatt (left tackle), Dexter Lawrence (nose tackle), Christian Wilkins (defensive tackle)

Similar formula for Clemson as 2016.

2019: LSU
Terrace Marshall (wide receiver), K’Lavon Chaisson (edge), JaCoby Stevens (safety), Kristian Fulton (cornerback), Derek Stingley (cornerback)

LSU ended up putting something like 45 players into the NFL from their starting lineup, they had a lot of 4-star athletes who proved to have NFL athleticism and their aggressive offensive scheme was the primary driver of their success. That said, the reason they made Clemson look overmatched by the end was Fulton and Stingley locking down Dabo Swinney’s receivers.

2020: Alabama
Najee Harris (running back), Alex Leatherwood (left tackle), Evan Neal (right tackle), LaBryan Ray (defensive tackle), Dylan Moses (inside linebacker), Patrick Surtain (cornerback)

Alabama’s offensive line were arguably the true champions of 2020, although you have to also give a lot of credit to DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, who were 4-stars. Both were lighter, smaller guys coming out of high school and knocked a bit for it. Patrick Surtain was rated so highly because he’s 6-2, 200 pounds yet had the athleticism to play press-man coverage. Similarly, Neal and Leatherwood were 6-5+, 300+ pound athletes even in high school, so it was obvious they’d be high level talents in the college game.

If you already know a player will be an NFL caliber athlete with NFL size when they’re 17 years old, it’s a good indicator they’ll be good players. As the 2019 LSU Tigers sort of revealed, there are plenty of NFL players outside of the 5-star ranks, but signing a large chunk of the obvious transcendent athletes is a useful trick.

The 2021 5-stars

Here’s how the 5-stars in the 2021 class were dispersed across the nation:

image.png

Judging from the map and an understanding of which bigger schools are located where, you’d probably guess the schools who made out best were Georgia, Clemson, and perhaps one of the Florida schools.

In fact, here’s how the tally looks with a pair of players yet unsigned.

Alabama: Six 5-stars
Ohio State: Four 5-stars
Georgia: Four 5-stars
North Carolina: Two 5-stars
Miami: Two 5-stars
Clemson: Two 5-stars
And then Texas, USC, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Maryland, Washington, Florida, LSU, Oregon, and Michigan are each signing one apiece.

Obviously an awful lot of talent is being accumulated by a few particular schools. Look back and you’ll see consistency. Alabama signed three 5-stars in 2019 and four more in 2010, Georgia signed five and then four, Ohio State signed three of those two classes, and Clemson got one in 2019 and five in 2020. Other than Oklahoma and Notre Dame, these are the same schools we tend to keep seeing in the College Football Playoff.

Oklahoma has signed four 5-stars now in the last three classes, Notre Dame has signed one, both of them have been beaten in the first round multiple times. All these trends raise obvious questions for people about parity in the college game, has talent ever been hoarded quite like this with national recruiting strategies by a few top schools? How could it be ameliorated to level the playing field? Those concerns are then typically countered with the argument this sort of hoarding is not new.

The counterargument is basically right. From 1998 to 2013 in the BCS era, you’d see a fair number of fluctuations in which teams were able to make the title game but often some major hoarding in terms of prospects. USC signed at least five 5-star players in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2010. However they never reached the BCS title game again after 2005 (nearly made it in 2008) and have never really stopped signing large numbers of 5-star recruits. Florida was stockpiling blue chips in a similar fashion from 2007 through 2010 under Urban Meyer before he left and imparted his high level recruiting to the Buckeye program.

The Gators never really tasted the fruit of their high level recruiting either, it peaked when they were winning titles but some of the highest rated classes saw disappointing finishes to the runs. Today’s Georgia fans are keenly aware Kirby Smart’s ability to hoard high numbers of the 5-stars the state is producing these days has not yet yielded even a second playoff run, much less a National Championship.

Between those historical trends and the fact Ohio State is recruiting at an elite level these days despite having to reach into Texas, Washington, and Virginia in this class in order to sign 5-stars, there’s good historical precedent for believing the list of schools hoarding talent will change in the future. So what’s truly different? What’s potentially different is the College Football Playoff and full-time recruiting personnel.

Back in the day it was hard to hold onto major recruiting momentum because it was exceedingly difficult to reach the BCS title game. Only two teams made it, you see, whereas today four make the mark. Clemson has been to the playoffs for six consecutive seasons and it’s only a seven-year old event. No one else in the ACC has been able to block their pathway.

Notre Dame has made it twice for similar reasons, they have a relatively easy path, and Alabama and Ohio State have massive, well-oiled machines that maintain a recruiting edge over the rest of their conferences and help them make repeated trips. Oklahoma has been feasting as well, stacking up wins and championships in a Big 12 in which the only one other team with comparable resources spent the last decade shooting themselves in the foot.

The key here is the preservation of momentum. If you can consistently keep your school as one of the IT programs regularly playing on New Year’s for a National Championship, you can maintain a recruiting edge vis a vis your main regional rivals. What’s more, these schools often have increasingly massive recruiting departments who maintain more continuity than the coaching staff and can preserve those edges more easily.

You’ll regularly see teams win championships, experience an exodus of assistant coaches for promotions elsewhere, and then even if the recruiting had actually ticked up the school will falter due to an inability to adjust to losing the assistants and the recruiting ticks back down. Well the recruiting needn’t tick down with well staffed recruiting departments so things instead hinge on how well the head coach replaces assistants.

This is “the thing” to watch for the coming seasons. Ohio State has been promoting grad assistants the last few years to replace departing coaches. Dabo Swinney could be about to lose one of the last remaining offensive coaches from the brain trust who helped build the championship teams of 2016 and 2018 in Tony Elliott. Alabama is facing a total rebuild of their offensive staff after they essentially all left to take over at Texas, which is fairly normal for the Tide.

Historically it’s been the poaching of assistants which has submarined would be dynasties. Woody Hayes lost Bo Schembechler and then, worse, gained him as a rival up north at Michigan and had one of his finest runs of teams denied National Championships in the “Ten Year War.” This famous stretch was actually a span of 11 games in which the Wolverines and Buckeyes went 5-5-1 against each other, it concluded with Michigan winning three in a row and Woody Hayes losing his mind and taking a swing at an opposing player in a bowl game, leading to his dismissal.

There’s a few areas in which things feel different than in previous eras. National recruiting becoming a mainstream practice by major schools, massive recruiting departments and budgets, and the college football playoffs have all helped a few schools entrench themselves at the top of the standings and recruiting rankings every year. However staff breakups are what tend to end dynasties and Nick Saban is the only coach who’s been proven to be inoculated for that ailment.

So while the Matthew Principle has always played out in college football, it's still too early to be worried about a permanent caste system established amongst the elites.

 

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satyanash

satyanash 14529

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26 minutes ago, NoctambulantBrobdingnagian said:

the joke's on you Saty, your search for 'disaster' came up positive for the Longhorns

Ketch has something of a point. We've signed 23 four-star WR recruits in the last ten years and sent just four to the NFL draft. A&M's sent five which isn't much better.

Meanwhile blOU, who usually signs more three-stars/OOS guys at WR, sends them to the NFL in droves. Recruits are starting to pick up on that. This cycle, all the in-state four-star WRs either went to blOU or OOS (except for Shad Banks and he's barely a WR anyway)

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texifornia

texifornia 57000

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Just now, satyanash said:

Ketch has something of a point. We've signed 23 four-star WR recruits in the last ten years and sent just four to the NFL draft. A&M's sent five which isn't much better.

Meanwhile blOU, who usually signs more three-stars/OOS guys at WR, sends them to the NFL in droves. Recruits are starting to pick up on that. This cycle, all the in-state four-star WRs either went to blOU or OOS (except for Shad Banks and he's barely a WR anyway)

He's talking "from the state of Texas", not where they went to school

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19038

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2 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Ketch has something of a point. We've signed 23 four-star WR recruits in the last ten years and sent just four to the NFL draft. A&M's sent five which isn't much better.

Meanwhile blOU, who usually signs more three-stars/OOS guys at WR, sends them to the NFL in droves. Recruits are starting to pick up on that. This cycle, all the in-state four-star WRs either went to blOU or OOS (except for Shad Banks and he's barely a WR anyway)

Maybe try understanding Ketch’s point first.
Also, referencing data that is ten years old with completely different coaching staffs  is absolutely regarded. Coaching staffs develop players, not institutions. 

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Funk Doctor Spock

Funk Doctor Spock 12415

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4 minutes ago, TexasFan21 said:

Do we know if Derrian Brown will contribute this year? Haven't heard his name in quite some time. Not sure he will ever play again. 

Nah. I don't think he'll ever play another down of football, sadly. And honestly, I wouldn't feel right about it. I hope the kid gets his degree and has a great life. 

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cafe society

cafe society 2872

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2 hours ago, Tex Pete said:

I am 99% certain he created a new account in December. 

He's created half a dozen and has been crowdsourced every time with extreme prejudice.  Only this time was a little more prejudiced than usual.  If there was a Classics for crowdsourcing this would surely be the first enshrinement.

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Tex Pete

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7 minutes ago, cafe society said:

He's created half a dozen and has been crowdsourced every time with extreme prejudice.  Only this time was a little more prejudiced than usual.  If there was a Classics for crowdsourcing this would surely be the first enshrinement.

Right, but this one started posting especially on the Urban thread when his main account stopped for a while, I believe in anticipation of his eventual crowdsourcing. We'll see if that one starts regularly posting again.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62746

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1 hour ago, satyanash said:

Ian Boyd: Does college football have a problem with 5-star hoarding?

 

I've discovered a bizarre form of entertainment on my end. Everytime I see an Ian Boyd post spoilered, I find myself starting to crack a smile. Then, I click on the spoiler to see the post and it is always ridiculously long and I laugh out loud. I'm a simple man, I guess.

10 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

Again, what did the dude do to get crowdsourced?

I can't speak for anyone else, but I think it was around the 5th time that he implied or straight up told me that he was going to kill me that did it for me. Maybe it was the time he implied an interest in raping my daughter. Or maybe it's just the fact that he's an embarrassing poster who was constantly full of shit. Maybe a little of all of that, I guess.

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jinx

jinx 2635

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3 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

@hornfromdallas can fuck off. Let’s all carpet bomb him and his tired schtick. He’s worthless as fuck. 

Damn.  I blocked him last night (now unnecessarily), then missed the nuclear crowd sourcing because I had actual work to do today.  I feel like I really missed out on an important event in the history of this site.

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mr. sunshine

mr. sunshine 2827

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6 minutes ago, BornOrange said:

Carl: "Is this Bolivia?"

Picture

Jeesh, all Bolivia can't look like this. 

How do you know? This might be the garden spot of the whole country. People may travel hundreds of miles just to get to this spot where we're standing now. This might be the Atlantic City, New Jersey of all Bolivia for all you know.

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Machinator

Machinator 32099

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(Mike Roach) NSD Notebook: Notes and quotes from Signing Day stops

Spoiler

— Relationships played a key role in the decision of David Abiara

Before Texas re-entered the picture, Washington was the favorite to land him. While Bo Davis is who offered, the addition of Pete Kwiatkowski sealed the deal for the Longhorns. This goes back to what I wrote around the time Kwiatkowski was hired. He may not be known as the most dynamic recruiter, but he connects with people in a strong way. Legacy head coach Chris Melson told Horns247 that when Kwiatkowski came to Texas, "It made it a no brainer. When coach Pete came to Texas that was it. The relationship he made with coach Kwiatkowski really led to the decision being pretty easy for David."

— Abiara has the versatility to play several spots on defense

As we learn about where players fit in Pete Kwiatkowkski's defense, Abiara says he can play multiple edge-rushing roles. "I'm going to play outside linebacker or defensive end," Abiara told Horns247. "Whichever way I can help the defense, that's what I'll do." Melson praised Abiara's competitiveness saying, "He loves a challenge. What really stands out is his potential. His potential is really high. He's got a talent level and skill level that's very rare. I've been doing this for 29 years and he's as talented and has as high of a ceiling as any kid we've been able to coach."

— Texas staff continues to get rave reviews

Several people we spoke to today raved about the potential of the Texas staff. Abiara lit up when he was asked about the group Steve Sarkisian put together. "That staff is crazy. The experience they have and knowledge of the game is unprecedented and I'm excited to play for him," Abiara said.

— For Uke, the opportunity to go to Stanford was too much to pass up

Stanford is always going to be an attractive place for high academic prospects like Uke. In the end, that's what made the decision. He and his family sat down this morning truly torn between Texas and the Cardinal, but a free education from Stanford was too much to pass up. "We just sat down as a family and discussed all of the options. We weighed the pros and cons of life after football and Stanford just kept on checking all of the boxes."

— Texas was able to make it a close race thanks to Kyle Flood

Uke gave strong consideration to Texas and a big part of that was Kyle Flood. Uke said that Flood was able to connect with him in the short time he was recruiting him at Texas. "Coach Flood is such a good coach and good recruiter. Whenever you talk to coach Flood he talks to you like you're his son. He relates on a personal level. He'd be a great coach to play under but I just chose Stanford."

— Keithron Lee felt no fear with coaching change

Lee committed to Texas on Christmas day only to see the staff dismissed a week later.  Keeping Andre Coleman was big, but Lee thought the change in staff would mean a better future for Texas.  "Coach Coleman was the one that recruited me, so as far as a coaching change, I didn't really see it.  The thing about that is if there was to be a coaching change it can only get better.  That's the way I see it," Coleman told Nick Harris.

 

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Born Burnt

Born Burnt 6178

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28 minutes ago, jinx said:

Damn.  I blocked him last night (now unnecessarily), then missed the nuclear crowd sourcing because I had actual work to do today.  I feel like I really missed out on an important event in the history of this site.

I missed it too. But I just went and shot his dead body 5 times anyway. I feel better now.

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JesusSweatDuck

JesusSweatDuck 17784

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3 hours ago, TrashMaster G said:

What's the story here?  What did he do to incur the Wrath of Surly?

Other than posting a picture of his dick?

 

Generally being an unlikable asshole with very suspect information he flaunted as truth and a racist?  He was busted more than once making shit up. Fuck that wt asshole

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