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Texas Recruiting Notes 2021

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9 hours ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

IT: Recruiting for Dummies - Nahlin

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Recruiting is the lifeblood of a program. Because of this importance, it never rests. There are no dead periods even when the NCAA says there’s a dead period. Because the first sentence is true, even in a pandemic recruiting persists.

Four-year eligibility means there’s a constant rotation of players through a program. In come promising freshmen and seemingly in the blink of an eye, they're on their way out, making room for a new group of freshmen. For numerous reasons, many won’t fulfill the promise they came in with. The main driver of individual disappointment is poor development, poor fit, and poor scheming. Sometimes it's just a lousy evaluation.

We’ll run down the basics of recruiting by starting with an oft-forgotten factor. It's amazing it needs to be repeated over and over, but coaching matters.

Yes, coaching matters:

If I only had a dollar for every time I heard stars don’t matter because Mack Brown and Charlie Strong recruited well and still didn’t fare well in the 2010s. (The verdict is still out on Tom Herman in that regard. This year will tell the tale as his highly rated class of 2018 enters its third year in his program.)

A lot is embedded in the word ‘coaching.’ Coaching entails development through S&C (including instilling culture), development through teaching fundamentals and technique, teaching concepts beyond a player’s position thus improving overall football IQ, and deployment of talent in an optimized scheme. The degree to which these factors are in place will directly affect whether or not a player is maximized.

(Players who normally ‘bust’ are either to blame due to low football character or were terrible evaluations, otherwise every player should contribute in some fashion. At blue-bloods it’s normally the former)

Stars do matter on a macro level:

You want as many five- and high four-stars as you can get. In my view, a five-star is someone who is guaranteed to get drafted in the first few rounds as long as he receives just average development. Most five-stars go to schools where they receive quality development and turn into stars.

The most obvious evidence that stars do matter is by looking at the results of the teams that land them in the highest number. These teams recruit the best and they also put the most players in the NFL.

Dabo Swinney did win his first national title at Clemson with a bit of an outlier team that averaged a #13 ranking in the four recruiting classes that took part in the National Championship. Outliers typically help make the original point as much as the standard examples do. There's a reason they're an outlier. Clemson’s recruiting has skyrocketed since the 2016 National Championship, so apparently Swinney thinks stars matter.

My intuition is, on average there is very little difference between three-stars rated .88 and four-stars rated .92. There is typically a more noticeable difference in raw ability and upside between a .96 and .92 than a .92 and .88.

This tight range between three- and four-stars is typically where you’ll find your star gazers who don’t really watch film. They'll celebrate a .90 four-star! while wondering why the coaches are having to "settle" for a .89 three-star. That's a bit hyperbolic, but only a bit.

Stars don’t matter on a micro level:

The proof here is how many good players slip through the cracks and end up at smaller schools, or how many lower rated players come into a highly rated class and out-perform their more highly touted teammates.

There are many more three-stars and lower than there are five- and high four-stars. Sheer numbers dictate you’re going to have a lot of ‘feel good, Colt McCoy is better than Ryan Perrilloux’ stories. The takeaway isn’t just Perrilloux was overrated, though, it’s that McCoy was underrated. The takeaway is also that mental evaluation is as important as anything else.

A big factor in individual players exceeding expectations is growth potential. Players develop at different rates, which makes evaluation all the more difficult. What a player is today isn’t what he’s going to be tomorrow. Or, if he is, he’s likely not a player you want.

Perhaps a player came into a program with underdeveloped skills, an underdeveloped frame, or wasn’t playing the same position he projected to in high school that he does in college. These are not the players coaching staffs and recruiting networks should run from, but embrace.

Evaluation:

The novice evaluator will look for hard hits or straight-line speed, but the two most important traits are initial quickness and fluidity. You have to get up and moving quickly if you’re a lineman, get to the hole quickly if you’re a running back, off the line of scrimmage quickly if you’re a wide receiver, etc.

With the modern game forcing players to defend the entire field, stiffness is a killer. Stiffness plays a big part in players spinning down a position (e.g., from corner to safety) and has put traditional middle linebackers on the endangered species list as they typically have no place to spin to. Players who can spin have huge upside, however. If they can keep 95% of their athleticism while moving up a size, that puts them in the highest percentile of athletes for the new position.

The first thing college evaluators will evaluate is how a player moves. If they like what they see, they’ll investigate further. Questions that need to be answered include: what are his grades, what will his build look like in a couple of years, how does he fit in our scheme, does he embrace the grind of football, and will he throw his body around?

There's a whole lot more to evaluation than that, but this post will be long enough.

Finding the right fits:

Evaluating for scheme fit is how schools with quality coaching often level the playing field. They might not own recruiting advantages, but these coaches are excellent on the whiteboard and know exactly what they’re looking for to unlock their playbook.

Oklahoma State is a good example, TCU has been as well, and so too was Kansas State under Bill Snyder. All three ran entirely different programs but each evaluated and recruited well for needs. Like Tiger Woods in his prime, they had a type and they went out and found them.

Urban Meyer is a blue blood coach who married quality schemes with elite talent. Dabo Swinney has been doing it too. This is the goal for Tom Herman and Texas. If the question is great schemes and fit or elite talent, the answer is 'why not both?'

Not every recruit is a super star, but many can become very valuable role players that help you win big. These players are often underrated and don’t hold the same value at one school as they do at another. In the right system, they may find a fit that unlocks legitimate potential. Hunter Renfrow comes to mind.

Nick Saban doesn’t need Gary Patterson’s safeties-turned-linebackers. Saban cherry picks his offensive skill talent, rather than mining for it like Gundy. And he put himself in the fortunate position to put elite talent in a rigorous culture rather than recruiting the Kansas JUCO ranks like Snyder. But even Saban has utilized role players he put in the right fit to win at a high level, he just hasn’t had to make a career of it.

Mental eval is bigger than you think:

Football character is different from choir boy character. Football character essentially means football is a major priority in life, you have goals in the sport, and you’re going to work very hard to achieve them. These can be choir boys but they can also be rough around the edges sorts where football serves as guard rails in life. You want hungry players.

Mental toughness is as important to evaluate as physical toughness. Being a college football player isn’t as easy as fans think. It requires discipline. It requires competitiveness. I’ve seen too many kids lacking competitiveness give up on themselves. They leave a lot of money on the table in the process. You want maximizers.

Lazy kids can be culture killers, too, especially when they’re talented and coaches find themselves at the intersection of instilling culture and playing favorites. That’s not a place they want to be. It’s how you lose locker rooms. It’s better to evaluate that from the beginning. Some players are so talented they can get away with things others can't. That's a dangerous game.

Tom Herman has already passed on more talented flakes than he’s taken. I rarely hear about lazy or unmotivated players. I think Texas has done well here but you're still going to have to take chances here and there depending on a player's upside. They did that with Javonne Shepherd. I'm sure they'll do it again.

Football intelligence is different than mental eval:

A player’s football intelligence is typically tied into the coaching he’s received and the amount of time that player studies. Some are born instinctive and have a naturally high football IQ, but most have to work to understand, similar to being in a classroom.

Football intelligence is probably the hardest thing for a non-coach to evaluate. Even still, NFL teams with millions invested in scouting departments often fail in evaluating a player's mental capabilities.

Some kids make football intelligence impossible to miss, but for the most part it's a question mark that will need to be answered over time.

This aspect of evaluation plays a big role in quarterback recruiting, as well as linebacker and safety.

Transferable traits are much more important than high school production:

I often hear about how Player X put up gaudy stats in high school and should be widely recruited. Or on this site during televised high school playoff games I’ll read how Johnny All Star is a “player” and “Texas should take a look.” Texas probably did take a look — a 10-second look and saw Johnny F’n All Star didn’t pass the ‘initial quickness/fluidity’ test.

Transferable traits matter much more than stats. Al Bundy can’t take those 4 touchdowns versus Polk High with him to college. High school players can’t take all the other external advantages with them either. On the positive side for a player in sub-optimal circumstances, they’re not going to be downgraded for external disadvantages.

Most college prospects were productive high school players, which comes as no surprise, but you have to understand the context of how the production comes about. Tape matters so much more than box scores.

Context matters. Is a player excelling at a school with a tougher lacrosse schedule than football? That’s an issue. Does the player have a huge team-wide advantage, like we’ve seen at Katy or Aledo in the past? Something made Andy Dalton at Katy different from the run of Bishops playing quarterback at Aledo. On the flip side, something makes Jase McClellan different than Kyle Porter. (It's traits)

I’m not saying production doesn’t matter, but for the most part it’s a secondary consideration to traits.

Ceiling player versus floor player:

I’ll use these terms a lot to describe how much growth potential a player has.

Shane Buechele is a great example of a high floor player. I said he’d likely start immediately as a true freshman because of that floor. But he also had limitations that were never going to change, either, and he was replaced by Sam Ehlinger who had a higher floor and ceiling, especially in the Herman offense (another reminder that fit matters).

Ja’Quinden Jackson and Hudson Card are also useful for this conversation. Jackson is an awesome force on the field, both an excellent runner with a powerful arm. That gives him a high ceiling. But he comes with extensive questions in the passing game, which lowers his floor. But but he’s such a good runner he’ll be easy to build an offense around which raises that floor a bit.

Card is much more experienced as a passer and also has a strong arm and is a good athlete. At the position his floor is higher than Jackson’s but his ceiling isn’t. Like with Buechele and Ehlinger, fit will likely play a part in deciding who the "best" quarterback is. Timing and circumstance are such important factors in all of this.

That’s not to rehash a stupid debate, it’s just to illustrate the floor versus ceiling point.

Much of a class is fungible:

Nobody knows if Logan Parr or Aki Ogunbiyi will be the better player. Parr, a guard prospect, signed with Texas. Ogunbiyi, a guard prospect, signed with Texas A&M. They were both four-stars in a class with a lot of good offensive line options.

The secret is there are so many good options throughout the country that schools that recruit at a good to great level should have no problem creating a big board where the #4-10 options at a position are basically interchangeable. You don’t want to go any further down your big board than you have to, but in a 25 man class, 17-18 guys are fungible. I pulled that number out of a hat but you get the point. What decides the differences between those 17-18 players at schools with similar resources is development. Coaching matters, imo.

The real recruiting battles to pay attention to are when the players are more uncommon. Where Texas hurt A&M is by landing Vernon Broughton (though the Aggies landed a great D-line haul). Where the Aggies hurt Texas is by landing Jaylon Jones.

An aside: Aggies would have you believe Hudson Card and Haynes King are interchangeable but I’d disagree.

That’s why you have to land elites:

Since classes are largely fungible, you have to land elites to differentiate. Sometime in July I wrote if Texas landed Bijan Robinson, Vernon Broughton, and Alfred Collins, things would be just fine. Things were just fine.

Texas has long been landing good, fungible options, but in addition to other issues, it hasn’t landed enough elite difference makers. The evidence, or lack thereof, is in the NFL draft.

Here’s where the star-gazers are on better footing. At least usually. I’ve seen some horrendously overrated players in the past.

Under Tom Herman, Texas is landing better players than it has in a long time. I believe they're receiving better development, too. That needs to continue so the four-year rolling average has Texas reloading rather than rebuilding.

Scarcity and dirty programs:

Scarcity affects just about everything else in life, so why not recruiting? The better, more rare the prospect, the greater lengths schools will go to land him.

There are dirty programs. Counter to the talking point, no, not all schools are dirty. If you pay attention to recruiting long enough, and watch fact patterns develop, these facts won’t need to be stated. They’ll be obvious.

If your favorite school misses on a blue-chip prospect it “should” have had, maybe it was really doomed from the start. Context matters. We'll usually let you know what's up there, you just kind of have to pay attention.

Recruiting witches:

These are largely figments of the recruitnik's imagination. Recruiting witches almost always stem from schools who are on the upswing, are dirty, or are both. Put that same guy at even a good, but clean school, and he isn’t the same. Hi, Larry Porter!

There are a lot of good recruiters out there, and you want as many as you can get, but witches are unicorns who only appear when things are going really well, or the school has buying power. Not coincidentally, they lose their magical powers when circumstances change.

Volume recruiters:

These are engaging, energetic coaches who can handle a large number of recruits regardless of position or region. They don’t have to be “proven” they just need a chance to prove. Jeff Traylor was a volume recruiter for Texas. Chris Vaughn and Chris Rumph were pretty good too.

Texas may have one or two volume recruiters on staff, but I’m waiting to see how the cycle plays out.

Committable offers:

A committable offer means you can commit to the offer. That’s easy enough, but the question then becomes, what is an offer that isn’t committable? That would be an Alabama offer. Or a Georgia offer. Or an LSU offer.

These fake offers are really just a sign of interest. The problem with them, beyond the obvious, is they put schools like Texas on the spot. Texas doesn’t want to offer in-state kids early in case the player tries to commit. Telling a player ‘no’ is bad business, especially when you’re somewhat dependent on having good relationships within the Texas high school coaches sewing circle.

Non-committable offers are an invitation to visit or participate in a camp where the real evaluation begins. Non-committable offers are bull****, and a seedy side of the recruiting process that stems from the region that embraces the seedy side of the game.

New car smell vs stagnation:

Recruiting is a leading indicator of a program on the rise and a leading indicator of one on the decline.

New coaches typically recruit very well in their first full cycle. They come in with fanfare, enthusiasm, and the promise of a new day. It’s easy to capitalize on early which creates momentum. From there, the new coach is off and running. As Tom Herman struggled with his transition 2017 class I mentioned he was going to kill the 2018 class. I knew that because the new car smell is real.

Stagnation is also real, and it aided Tom Herman in his first year as Kevin Sumlin’s tenure at A&M was essentially a rotting fish. That just added to Herman’s recruiting tailwind.

Once recruiting takes a real step back for a school, its head coach has lost his fastball and should have already been replaced. Recruits tend to know before athletic directors that it's over for a coach and there's no coming back. Once recruiting goes, so too should the coach. It's the way of things, otherwise you're just putting off the inevitable and making things even more difficult for the next coach.

Relationships/proximity:

Recruiting is largely about relationships, and relationships are aided by proximity and the ease with which a recruit and his family can visit campus. This is a huge advantage for a school like Texas that sits in the middle of a recruiting hotbed.

The earlier a relationship is built, the better a school’s chances for landing the recruit. This is why it’s important to be early on evaluations. You want to weigh all your options as soon as possible and begin to cultivate the type of relationship that will end with a signature. When a staff loses a kid to another school, the recruit should be in tears as he tells you he's going in a different direction. If a kid can casually tell a coach he's going to their rival, the coach did a poor job cultivating the relationship.

Proximity also helps because most players want to play at a school that is an easy trip for their family and friends to come watch them play.

 

 

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22 hours ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

IT: Recruiting for Dummies - Nahlin

  Hide contents

Recruiting is the lifeblood of a program. Because of this importance, it never rests. There are no dead periods even when the NCAA says there’s a dead period. Because the first sentence is true, even in a pandemic recruiting persists.

Four-year eligibility means there’s a constant rotation of players through a program. In come promising freshmen and seemingly in the blink of an eye, they're on their way out, making room for a new group of freshmen. For numerous reasons, many won’t fulfill the promise they came in with. The main driver of individual disappointment is poor development, poor fit, and poor scheming. Sometimes it's just a lousy evaluation.

We’ll run down the basics of recruiting by starting with an oft-forgotten factor. It's amazing it needs to be repeated over and over, but coaching matters.

Yes, coaching matters:

If I only had a dollar for every time I heard stars don’t matter because Mack Brown and Charlie Strong recruited well and still didn’t fare well in the 2010s. (The verdict is still out on Tom Herman in that regard. This year will tell the tale as his highly rated class of 2018 enters its third year in his program.)

A lot is embedded in the word ‘coaching.’ Coaching entails development through S&C (including instilling culture), development through teaching fundamentals and technique, teaching concepts beyond a player’s position thus improving overall football IQ, and deployment of talent in an optimized scheme. The degree to which these factors are in place will directly affect whether or not a player is maximized.

(Players who normally ‘bust’ are either to blame due to low football character or were terrible evaluations, otherwise every player should contribute in some fashion. At blue-bloods it’s normally the former)

Stars do matter on a macro level:

You want as many five- and high four-stars as you can get. In my view, a five-star is someone who is guaranteed to get drafted in the first few rounds as long as he receives just average development. Most five-stars go to schools where they receive quality development and turn into stars.

The most obvious evidence that stars do matter is by looking at the results of the teams that land them in the highest number. These teams recruit the best and they also put the most players in the NFL.

Dabo Swinney did win his first national title at Clemson with a bit of an outlier team that averaged a #13 ranking in the four recruiting classes that took part in the National Championship. Outliers typically help make the original point as much as the standard examples do. There's a reason they're an outlier. Clemson’s recruiting has skyrocketed since the 2016 National Championship, so apparently Swinney thinks stars matter.

My intuition is, on average there is very little difference between three-stars rated .88 and four-stars rated .92. There is typically a more noticeable difference in raw ability and upside between a .96 and .92 than a .92 and .88.

This tight range between three- and four-stars is typically where you’ll find your star gazers who don’t really watch film. They'll celebrate a .90 four-star! while wondering why the coaches are having to "settle" for a .89 three-star. That's a bit hyperbolic, but only a bit.

Stars don’t matter on a micro level:

The proof here is how many good players slip through the cracks and end up at smaller schools, or how many lower rated players come into a highly rated class and out-perform their more highly touted teammates.

There are many more three-stars and lower than there are five- and high four-stars. Sheer numbers dictate you’re going to have a lot of ‘feel good, Colt McCoy is better than Ryan Perrilloux’ stories. The takeaway isn’t just Perrilloux was overrated, though, it’s that McCoy was underrated. The takeaway is also that mental evaluation is as important as anything else.

A big factor in individual players exceeding expectations is growth potential. Players develop at different rates, which makes evaluation all the more difficult. What a player is today isn’t what he’s going to be tomorrow. Or, if he is, he’s likely not a player you want.

Perhaps a player came into a program with underdeveloped skills, an underdeveloped frame, or wasn’t playing the same position he projected to in high school that he does in college. These are not the players coaching staffs and recruiting networks should run from, but embrace.

Evaluation:

The novice evaluator will look for hard hits or straight-line speed, but the two most important traits are initial quickness and fluidity. You have to get up and moving quickly if you’re a lineman, get to the hole quickly if you’re a running back, off the line of scrimmage quickly if you’re a wide receiver, etc.

With the modern game forcing players to defend the entire field, stiffness is a killer. Stiffness plays a big part in players spinning down a position (e.g., from corner to safety) and has put traditional middle linebackers on the endangered species list as they typically have no place to spin to. Players who can spin have huge upside, however. If they can keep 95% of their athleticism while moving up a size, that puts them in the highest percentile of athletes for the new position.

The first thing college evaluators will evaluate is how a player moves. If they like what they see, they’ll investigate further. Questions that need to be answered include: what are his grades, what will his build look like in a couple of years, how does he fit in our scheme, does he embrace the grind of football, and will he throw his body around?

There's a whole lot more to evaluation than that, but this post will be long enough.

Finding the right fits:

Evaluating for scheme fit is how schools with quality coaching often level the playing field. They might not own recruiting advantages, but these coaches are excellent on the whiteboard and know exactly what they’re looking for to unlock their playbook.

Oklahoma State is a good example, TCU has been as well, and so too was Kansas State under Bill Snyder. All three ran entirely different programs but each evaluated and recruited well for needs. Like Tiger Woods in his prime, they had a type and they went out and found them.

Urban Meyer is a blue blood coach who married quality schemes with elite talent. Dabo Swinney has been doing it too. This is the goal for Tom Herman and Texas. If the question is great schemes and fit or elite talent, the answer is 'why not both?'

Not every recruit is a super star, but many can become very valuable role players that help you win big. These players are often underrated and don’t hold the same value at one school as they do at another. In the right system, they may find a fit that unlocks legitimate potential. Hunter Renfrow comes to mind.

Nick Saban doesn’t need Gary Patterson’s safeties-turned-linebackers. Saban cherry picks his offensive skill talent, rather than mining for it like Gundy. And he put himself in the fortunate position to put elite talent in a rigorous culture rather than recruiting the Kansas JUCO ranks like Snyder. But even Saban has utilized role players he put in the right fit to win at a high level, he just hasn’t had to make a career of it.

Mental eval is bigger than you think:

Football character is different from choir boy character. Football character essentially means football is a major priority in life, you have goals in the sport, and you’re going to work very hard to achieve them. These can be choir boys but they can also be rough around the edges sorts where football serves as guard rails in life. You want hungry players.

Mental toughness is as important to evaluate as physical toughness. Being a college football player isn’t as easy as fans think. It requires discipline. It requires competitiveness. I’ve seen too many kids lacking competitiveness give up on themselves. They leave a lot of money on the table in the process. You want maximizers.

Lazy kids can be culture killers, too, especially when they’re talented and coaches find themselves at the intersection of instilling culture and playing favorites. That’s not a place they want to be. It’s how you lose locker rooms. It’s better to evaluate that from the beginning. Some players are so talented they can get away with things others can't. That's a dangerous game.

Tom Herman has already passed on more talented flakes than he’s taken. I rarely hear about lazy or unmotivated players. I think Texas has done well here but you're still going to have to take chances here and there depending on a player's upside. They did that with Javonne Shepherd. I'm sure they'll do it again.

Football intelligence is different than mental eval:

A player’s football intelligence is typically tied into the coaching he’s received and the amount of time that player studies. Some are born instinctive and have a naturally high football IQ, but most have to work to understand, similar to being in a classroom.

Football intelligence is probably the hardest thing for a non-coach to evaluate. Even still, NFL teams with millions invested in scouting departments often fail in evaluating a player's mental capabilities.

Some kids make football intelligence impossible to miss, but for the most part it's a question mark that will need to be answered over time.

This aspect of evaluation plays a big role in quarterback recruiting, as well as linebacker and safety.

Transferable traits are much more important than high school production:

I often hear about how Player X put up gaudy stats in high school and should be widely recruited. Or on this site during televised high school playoff games I’ll read how Johnny All Star is a “player” and “Texas should take a look.” Texas probably did take a look — a 10-second look and saw Johnny F’n All Star didn’t pass the ‘initial quickness/fluidity’ test.

Transferable traits matter much more than stats. Al Bundy can’t take those 4 touchdowns versus Polk High with him to college. High school players can’t take all the other external advantages with them either. On the positive side for a player in sub-optimal circumstances, they’re not going to be downgraded for external disadvantages.

Most college prospects were productive high school players, which comes as no surprise, but you have to understand the context of how the production comes about. Tape matters so much more than box scores.

Context matters. Is a player excelling at a school with a tougher lacrosse schedule than football? That’s an issue. Does the player have a huge team-wide advantage, like we’ve seen at Katy or Aledo in the past? Something made Andy Dalton at Katy different from the run of Bishops playing quarterback at Aledo. On the flip side, something makes Jase McClellan different than Kyle Porter. (It's traits)

I’m not saying production doesn’t matter, but for the most part it’s a secondary consideration to traits.

Ceiling player versus floor player:

I’ll use these terms a lot to describe how much growth potential a player has.

Shane Buechele is a great example of a high floor player. I said he’d likely start immediately as a true freshman because of that floor. But he also had limitations that were never going to change, either, and he was replaced by Sam Ehlinger who had a higher floor and ceiling, especially in the Herman offense (another reminder that fit matters).

Ja’Quinden Jackson and Hudson Card are also useful for this conversation. Jackson is an awesome force on the field, both an excellent runner with a powerful arm. That gives him a high ceiling. But he comes with extensive questions in the passing game, which lowers his floor. But but he’s such a good runner he’ll be easy to build an offense around which raises that floor a bit.

Card is much more experienced as a passer and also has a strong arm and is a good athlete. At the position his floor is higher than Jackson’s but his ceiling isn’t. Like with Buechele and Ehlinger, fit will likely play a part in deciding who the "best" quarterback is. Timing and circumstance are such important factors in all of this.

That’s not to rehash a stupid debate, it’s just to illustrate the floor versus ceiling point.

Much of a class is fungible:

Nobody knows if Logan Parr or Aki Ogunbiyi will be the better player. Parr, a guard prospect, signed with Texas. Ogunbiyi, a guard prospect, signed with Texas A&M. They were both four-stars in a class with a lot of good offensive line options.

The secret is there are so many good options throughout the country that schools that recruit at a good to great level should have no problem creating a big board where the #4-10 options at a position are basically interchangeable. You don’t want to go any further down your big board than you have to, but in a 25 man class, 17-18 guys are fungible. I pulled that number out of a hat but you get the point. What decides the differences between those 17-18 players at schools with similar resources is development. Coaching matters, imo.

The real recruiting battles to pay attention to are when the players are more uncommon. Where Texas hurt A&M is by landing Vernon Broughton (though the Aggies landed a great D-line haul). Where the Aggies hurt Texas is by landing Jaylon Jones.

An aside: Aggies would have you believe Hudson Card and Haynes King are interchangeable but I’d disagree.

That’s why you have to land elites:

Since classes are largely fungible, you have to land elites to differentiate. Sometime in July I wrote if Texas landed Bijan Robinson, Vernon Broughton, and Alfred Collins, things would be just fine. Things were just fine.

Texas has long been landing good, fungible options, but in addition to other issues, it hasn’t landed enough elite difference makers. The evidence, or lack thereof, is in the NFL draft.

Here’s where the star-gazers are on better footing. At least usually. I’ve seen some horrendously overrated players in the past.

Under Tom Herman, Texas is landing better players than it has in a long time. I believe they're receiving better development, too. That needs to continue so the four-year rolling average has Texas reloading rather than rebuilding.

Scarcity and dirty programs:

Scarcity affects just about everything else in life, so why not recruiting? The better, more rare the prospect, the greater lengths schools will go to land him.

There are dirty programs. Counter to the talking point, no, not all schools are dirty. If you pay attention to recruiting long enough, and watch fact patterns develop, these facts won’t need to be stated. They’ll be obvious.

If your favorite school misses on a blue-chip prospect it “should” have had, maybe it was really doomed from the start. Context matters. We'll usually let you know what's up there, you just kind of have to pay attention.

Recruiting witches:

These are largely figments of the recruitnik's imagination. Recruiting witches almost always stem from schools who are on the upswing, are dirty, or are both. Put that same guy at even a good, but clean school, and he isn’t the same. Hi, Larry Porter!

There are a lot of good recruiters out there, and you want as many as you can get, but witches are unicorns who only appear when things are going really well, or the school has buying power. Not coincidentally, they lose their magical powers when circumstances change.

Volume recruiters:

These are engaging, energetic coaches who can handle a large number of recruits regardless of position or region. They don’t have to be “proven” they just need a chance to prove. Jeff Traylor was a volume recruiter for Texas. Chris Vaughn and Chris Rumph were pretty good too.

Texas may have one or two volume recruiters on staff, but I’m waiting to see how the cycle plays out.

Committable offers:

A committable offer means you can commit to the offer. That’s easy enough, but the question then becomes, what is an offer that isn’t committable? That would be an Alabama offer. Or a Georgia offer. Or an LSU offer.

These fake offers are really just a sign of interest. The problem with them, beyond the obvious, is they put schools like Texas on the spot. Texas doesn’t want to offer in-state kids early in case the player tries to commit. Telling a player ‘no’ is bad business, especially when you’re somewhat dependent on having good relationships within the Texas high school coaches sewing circle.

Non-committable offers are an invitation to visit or participate in a camp where the real evaluation begins. Non-committable offers are bull****, and a seedy side of the recruiting process that stems from the region that embraces the seedy side of the game.

New car smell vs stagnation:

Recruiting is a leading indicator of a program on the rise and a leading indicator of one on the decline.

New coaches typically recruit very well in their first full cycle. They come in with fanfare, enthusiasm, and the promise of a new day. It’s easy to capitalize on early which creates momentum. From there, the new coach is off and running. As Tom Herman struggled with his transition 2017 class I mentioned he was going to kill the 2018 class. I knew that because the new car smell is real.

Stagnation is also real, and it aided Tom Herman in his first year as Kevin Sumlin’s tenure at A&M was essentially a rotting fish. That just added to Herman’s recruiting tailwind.

Once recruiting takes a real step back for a school, its head coach has lost his fastball and should have already been replaced. Recruits tend to know before athletic directors that it's over for a coach and there's no coming back. Once recruiting goes, so too should the coach. It's the way of things, otherwise you're just putting off the inevitable and making things even more difficult for the next coach.

Relationships/proximity:

Recruiting is largely about relationships, and relationships are aided by proximity and the ease with which a recruit and his family can visit campus. This is a huge advantage for a school like Texas that sits in the middle of a recruiting hotbed.

The earlier a relationship is built, the better a school’s chances for landing the recruit. This is why it’s important to be early on evaluations. You want to weigh all your options as soon as possible and begin to cultivate the type of relationship that will end with a signature. When a staff loses a kid to another school, the recruit should be in tears as he tells you he's going in a different direction. If a kid can casually tell a coach he's going to their rival, the coach did a poor job cultivating the relationship.

Proximity also helps because most players want to play at a school that is an easy trip for their family and friends to come watch them play.

I'll hang up and listen.

TL;DR

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Dijon Robinson

Dijon Robinson 1511

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Not necessarily Texas-related, but an interesting new study from tOSU:

"The most elite players in college football increase revenue for their school football programs by an average of $650,000 a year, a first-of-its-kind study suggests. This is the money brought in by the highest-rated recruits coming out of high school – those given five stars by Rivals, a recruiting news service, according to researchers at The Ohio State University. Four-star recruits generated about $350,000 a year and three-star recruits increased revenue by about $150,000, while two-star recruits actually reduced revenue by about $13,000 a year for college football programs, the study found."

https://news.osu.edu/study-estimates-revenue-produced-by-top-college-football-players/

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Goodman

Goodman 3273

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45 minutes ago, ChampionshipLevelPiss said:

Not necessarily Texas-related, but an interesting new study from tOSU:

"The most elite players in college football increase revenue for their school football programs by an average of $650,000 a year, a first-of-its-kind study suggests. This is the money brought in by the highest-rated recruits coming out of high school – those given five stars by Rivals, a recruiting news service, according to researchers at The Ohio State University. Four-star recruits generated about $350,000 a year and three-star recruits increased revenue by about $150,000, while two-star recruits actually reduced revenue by about $13,000 a year for college football programs, the study found."

https://news.osu.edu/study-estimates-revenue-produced-by-top-college-football-players/

lol, good for the street agents, uncles and players but no way to trust this coming from ohio.

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Getafix

Getafix 28417

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247 / Greg Biggins / Jaylin Smith in no hurry to make his college choice

Spoiler

Jaylin Smith in no hurry to make his college choice
ByGREG BIGGINS
 

While a lot of defensive backs out West are cutting their list or even making decisions, Mission Hills (Calif.) Alemany defensive back Jaylin Smith said he’s in no hurry right now.

Smith is one of our favorite defensive backs not just out West but nationally as well. He’s a four-star prospect by 247Sports just outside the Top247. You can make a case he’s the best all around defensive back in the state and we’ve had a few college coaches tell us the same.

He’s a bit of a tweener in that he plays more of a safety role for Alemany but has a nickel for slot corner frame. He’s a very smart, highly intelligent player and is always around the ball. He’s a playmaker who always shows up and has the versatility to play numerous positions and in any situation during a game.

On the recruiting front, USC is a heavy leader in the Crystal Ball forecast but Smith said he’s in no hurry to make a move right now.


“I still want to take my visits and see what is out there,” Smith said. “There are some schools pressing me a little to make a decision but it’s all good, I can handle it.


“I’m just not ready to commit anywhere. I don’t feel like I need to  commit before I’m ready and before I get out and see some other schools. This is a big decision and I need to see some of these other schools, especially in the south, to see how well I fit in. I’m looking for the best fit system wise and where I’m comfortable and right now, I don’t want to rush anything that is going to affect me in the long run.”

As for what schools Smith wants to check out from outside the region, he said named four that are currently standing out.


“I want to see Clemson, LSU, Alabama and Texas,” Smith said. “I was hoping to see a few schools and take some visits this spring but that was all shut down because of the virus.


“I still want to see them though and have interest in all of those programs. Clemson and Texas have offered and both are great schools. I really like Alabama and LSU too and was hoping to visit with Miller (Moss, QB teammate) so hopefully things open back up in the summer and I can make that happen.”

Washington is another school Smith has always been high on and could get a visit down the road as well and Arizona State as well.

"I've always liked Washington growing up," Smith said. "When I was playing in the Snoop League (pop warner), we had a few guys who signed and played at UW so I've been following them ever since.

"Chris Hawkins is at ASU and were very close. He was recruiting me at USC before he moved over to ASU. That's another school I was going to visit in the spring but had to cancel those plans. Of course I like USC a lot, growing up, that was the childhood favorite. I'm close with Donte Williams and they want me as a nickel corner and are pushing really hard so I have some good options right now to sort through."

 

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Ricky's one-hitter

Ricky's one-hitter 9084

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State of Recruiting Podcast w/Roach

https://247sports.com/college/texas/Article/Texas-Longhorns-Football-Recruiting-Podcast-state-of-recruiting-interviewing-Hayden-Conner-Terrence-Cooks-talking-Greg-Brown-Jalen-Milroe-146155406/

Interview with Cooks is pretty great. He's a talker. Loves Hutzler, made some comments like "when I commit, er...if I committed to Texas". Texas is in a good spot. Committing in Novemberish, around the HS playoffs. May/June he'll release a top list. Xavion Alford is hard selling him on the coeds. He's enamored with some other schools like Georgia, but he talks about how he doesn't have any friends there and none of their commits are recruiting him. Noted Va Tech is doing so well because Alec Bryant is basically recruiting the state, landing DDavis and others.

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Thiefery

Thiefery 4970

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4 minutes ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

State of Recruiting Podcast w/Roach

https://247sports.com/college/texas/Article/Texas-Longhorns-Football-Recruiting-Podcast-state-of-recruiting-interviewing-Hayden-Conner-Terrence-Cooks-talking-Greg-Brown-Jalen-Milroe-146155406/

Interview with Cooks is pretty great. He's a talker. Loves Hutzler, made some comments like "when I commit, er...if I committed to Texas". Texas is in a good spot. Committing in Novemberish, around the HS playoffs. May/June he'll release a top list. Xavion Alford is hard selling him on the coeds. He's enamored with some other schools like Georgia, but he talks about how he doesn't have any friends there and none of their commits are recruiting him. Noted Va Tech is doing so well because Alec Bryant is basically recruiting the state, landing DDavis and others.

Terrence Cooks looks to be the LB that will finally hit.  Blacksburg has a beautiful scenery with the mountains and all.  But that place sucks if you want to live there.  

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Ricky's one-hitter

Ricky's one-hitter 9084

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Stream of consciousness stuff from Spiegelman

Spoiler

It’s been a while since we checked in with Rivals recruiting analyst Sam Spiegelman, so we hit him up this week to get his thoughts on the top offensive players Texas has offered from the state of Texas. We’ll follow up with Spiegelman soon to pick his brain on the players on the defensive side of the ball.

QB Garrett Nussmeier – “I think he's trying to take a look at the options he's very familiar with - the LSUs, his relationship with Rhett Lashlee Miami, at least he has a trust factor with Lashlee. I think he has intrigue in both Texas and Texas A&M. You could put the familiarity factor in with TCU as well. I think he's absolutely torn. I think he's a strong LSU lean and has been for the bulk of his recruitment. Obviously, he was an early offer for LSU and they signed Marcel Brooks a couple years ago. So they've been at Marcus for a long time. He's got a lot of intrigue in Texas and coach Yurcich and obviously Texas A&M offering is an eyebrow raiser, so I think he's balancing whether he should go with his gut and LSU or should he take the time to explore these new options. I think the fact that he's saying that he could commit any minute or not, is a bit of a puzzle. I could see him committing on Saturday - and we're ready in case he does - but he has not told me that he will for sure, he just is kind of going with the flow and I think he's using this quarantine to kind of weigh those two options. So I would not be surprised if he gets it out of the way as early as Saturday, or if he does not I could see this playing out into one of the more interesting recruitments whenever this Coronavirus pandemic slows down a bit. It's like, are you gonna get Are you gonna just commit to LSU?”

RB Camar Wheaton – “The one thing I have on Camar is that he is using this time to kind of figure out which schools are going to get officials and when they are going to be. That's obviously with the presumption that this thing is going to end sometime before the season. Obviously, he keeps to himself and that has stayed the same. But according to people in his camp, he's going to make the most of this time and the sense I continue to hear for Camar would be Texas, Oklahoma, LSU and Alabama. I certainly do think SMU would be a sleeper fifth option for him for an official visual. He has a great relationship with Preston (Stone). But those are the big four for him. And the fact that he was able to make it to Texas and OU right before this dead period, I think it definitely kind of boils down to those two unless he wants to really give a hard look at the SEC or staying home at SMU.”

RB LJ Johnson – “I don't see Texas as like the leader despite the ranking the contenders piece. I think it's definitely a four-way lead. I think it's Texas and Texas A&M, OU and LSU. And you could easily make an argument for any four of those schools right now. I think the fifth school is kind of like it depends on the time or the day. Obviously, he likes Stanford and the educational system there, none of those other four are going to really compare to that. And then you can also rotate schools like Alabama or Georgia or any other high-profile, national school. But in terms of visits, those first four I listed off are definitely a notch above everyone else. He's from Louisiana and has been camping at LSU since he was like in diapers and his dad played there. Texas and Texas A&M are the two in-state schools and you really kind of factor OU into that mix as well. It seems like Texas and OU are kind of playing this game ‘We’ll take Camer or LJ, whoever wants in first.’ There's not a huge drop-off between those two guys. OU is kind of the same way - they're in the Kamar Wheaton sweepstakes but they’d be very happy with LJ. Again, the fact that he can visit schools right now I think looms really large. A&M, he's been there a ton, they're recruiting him hard. He's a Jimbo Fisher-type of running back. Again, you can make the case for any one of those schools, but Texas is certainly in it as much as any one of them. I think the visits loom especially large for him because he kind of has those four really tightly packed in his recruitment, but he needs something to kind of distinguish one of them.”

RB Jonathon Brooks – “I don't know him well, and I've never seen him up close. He's one of those kids that it seems like it was Texas or Texas Tech, and he’d be comfortable going to either one of those schools. He's one of those guys that I know Carrington went to see leading up to national signing day. He's one of those guys that was on my list that I definitely wanted to see this offseason. He's a mid-three star. But one of those guys that if you could see in person, he might have a huge chance to definitely be one of those three- to four-star prospects that kind of grabs their fourth star with a great offseason, or with a with a really strong senior campaign once we kind of got an idea of what he's able to do in person.”

WR Quaydarius Davis – “He's a wild card. I mean, that's always been his M/O. I think the last time we talked, I would definitely pencil him into Texas's class. He's a potential five-star wide receiver. Every time I see him I like him more and more, but he has some things he’ll have to work through. There are things coaches are going to have to decide, because at receiver you're going to sign two, three or four each year and Quay has more talent than most receivers in Texas. I think there's a serious gap between him and the next one up like a JoJo Earl or Shadrach Banks. I think his skill set is a notch above every single one of those guys. But you have to counter that with other stuff. So I think like Texas has and always has been a favorite, but I could see a USC, an, SMU an LSU suddenly move to the top if he feels more comfortable at any one of those schools.

WR JoJo Earle – “Everyone has pretty much offered him by now. He's got to go to a place that's going to utilize the slot receiver, a vertical receiver. He really liked schools like Texas and LSU during the season. Now he's got everywhere in the country to choose from. I think Texas is in it. I think you give a school like Texas or TCU a unique edge because he's been there and we know he fits in that kind of offense. But in terms of is he leaning somewhere at this point? No, he's the kind of kid that has to find the right fit. I think that he's a kid that these visits loom very large because he hasn't been leaning anywhere at any point in his recruitment. He's completely open to everyone. It's more like he has to make the right fit in terms of his playing style and who could actually use someone with his skillset, which is 4.3, 4.4 speed, beat you over the top and do things out of the slot.”

WR Theodore Knox – “I think he kind of comes down to Texas, Mississippi State - he's from Baton Rouge, he's never going to go to LSU - or like a random team like a Baylor. He feels really comfortable at Baylor as well. He does want to feel like the guy and I think it boils down to Texas or Mississippi State in the end. I know that Mississippi State has him at or close to the top on their board. They would love to take him and he's got a great relationship with Mississippi State. He has been there a bit. And I think the same counts for Texas. He's been there, him and his cousin (LB Martrell Harris) have been completely impressed by Texas. I think they're either 1A or 1B for him. You can make a case it's going to be either Teddy or JoJo Earle, whoever Texas wants between those two. They're going to pick one or the other, probably not both unless you want two of the same similar kind of speed guys in the class. But there is an easy path to see him at Texas when it's all said and done. He's a great fit for that offense, and he's got a great relationship with the staff - at least he did before all the coaching changes and new receiver coaches. But yeah, Texas is going to land him or JoJo. Maybe both, but yes, Texas is definitely something that has to be considered with him.”

WR Ketron Jackson – “He's a very quiet kid. He's a kid that's going to climb in our rankings if and whenever we have another rankings meeting. Not because of anything he's done lately, just rewatching his tape and that's all we have to go for so he's a kid that is going to definitely climb the rankings. I love him. I love his tape and always have and the more I watched it, the more I feel that he should be in that same range as a JoJo Earle, one of the best guys in Texas that we don't talk about because he plays at Royce City. If he was still at Lancaster, we might be talking about him more and rightfully so. I think he has come out and publicly called Arkansas one of the two or three teams up there along with Alabama. But I think like once Texas offered, they established themselves as a team that has to be considered whenever he does have that chance to get to campus and kind of talk with the coaches a little bit further. So I don't see him making a decision. Arkansas has some clout because he was able to get there and have a great visit and they love that he has a relationship with a lot of their other top targets, like Kaidon Salter. The only other schools that that I could obviously see him winding up at is a school like Texas or a school like Alabama that was in the mix early on. But Texas will be a major contender for him whenever he does have a chance to see campus. I think that he could end up Arkansas for argument's sake, but even though he might have said they’re a leader at one point, no, they're not a true favorite. They're a top four or five team for him and he's got a great relationship with staff there, but he's one of those kids that’s a really solid, potentially high four-star kid that is really hurt by the Coronavirus (in terms of exposure). Texas at least offered him, and I think that's a team that you know is definitely want to keep an eye on whenever he can finally get to campus.”

WR Hal Presley – “I think that he's a guy that you could very easily see in Texas’ class. if things were normal right now, I would definitely see them at or close to the top of his leaderboard. He's another guy who a lot of schools really like and I think when Texas offered him, they were going to offer him now … he's kind of like a Kelvontay Dixon from last year where Texas is like, they’re not going to slow play him so let’s just offer him now and then we'll figure out the numbers later. I could see him in Texas's or Baylor’s or TCU’s class at any point. Sometimes it’s a numbers game and Texas was in it early and obviously views him as one of the very, very good potential options whenever things get back to normal. I like his tape. He's a kid that’s hurt by not being able to take visits, but I think Texas will be one of those teams that either is at or close to the top for him. But I don’t really have a read on what he’s thinking until these things kind of get back to normal.”

TE Lake McRee – “He’s from Lake Travis and was committed (to Texas) for so long, I think given the opportunity to kind of go back into the class … do I see it? It could kind of hinge on what’s going on with other guys and they already have Juan Juan Davis. He’s very much a kid that that was hurt by not really playing last year. And I think that the separation from Texas, you could see it coming from a mile away. He's got a lot of offers, but for a kid that lives 20 minutes away from Texas, he didn't really explore them too seriously because he was such an early commitment. Early on it seemed like a match made in heaven. But again, he’s a kid that was hurt a little bit by not playing and committing so early on, but I think that despite what he has in his top 10, I think he’s probably only visited Texas at this point. So I think he probably has no legitimate idea of where he's going to end up. He could make his way back into their class as much as an Auburn or some of those other schools. When he’s healthy, he is one of the better tight ends in the country , but I really don’t have a clue. Of his top 10, I don’t have a good idea of where he will end up.”

TE Elijah Arroyo – “He’s probably the best tight ends in the state right now. It's so funny because whenever that name first came across my way, I was like “Who is Elijah Arroyo?’ But now, at the moment, probably the top tight end in the state, a kid that could play anywhere. He’s another that’s hurt very bad by not being able to see a lot of schools but if you had to give up top four top three, four or five, you could make a case that he could end up at Texas. You could make a case that he could end up at Oklahoma, he could end up at Alabama, he could end up at Auburn - schools that he has at least a legitimate relationship with, and schools that he at least has seen at least once or twice. He's a legitimate, you know what you're going to get with Elijah, but again a kid hurt by not being able to talk to coaches in person or go back to campus. Whenever things get down to it, I expect Texas to be in it and I expect them to be at least a number 1, 1B or 2option when whenever he has to sit down. But no idea where he is with the process without being able to play football or go see a school up close.”

TE Landen King – “When I saw Landen, I was like ‘Wow, he is a kid that will probably get a lot of offers because it's a weird position in a weird year.’ I could see him at Texas. I could see him at Texas A&M. It wouldn't surprise me if he ended up there. He's a very good pass-catching tight end or flex tight end. He's a good, not great hand in the dirt guy, kind of kind of like a Lake McRee. I know that he whenever I did talk to him right before he dropped the top 10, he talked about schools like Washington, Georgia, Alabama - all those all those schools that offered. But because he’s from Atascocita, Texas or Texas A&M, I think it could be either one of those. I think Texas or A&M.”

Tommy Brockermeyer and James Brockermeyer – “Could they end up at Texas? Of course. Texas is probably benefiting in this one from the COVID thing because Alabama is a school that right now, that’s the only official visit they might have been able to get to before all this crap. Because they’re legacies, they could end up (at Texas). I think it’ll be Texas or Alabama in the end, so Alabama is a school that is easily the most hurt by this. And Texas is probably the school that benefits the most from it. But yeah, Texas, Alabama. I want to say a Clemson or Auburn, but it’s more Alabama or Texas, whenever they’re able to figure it out. LSU would probably be a distant third, Auburn in that same boat.”

Savion Byrd – “Honestly, LSU and OU you are in the same boat - schools that have been in it, but he has never seen them. He's got a great relationship with Bedenbaugh at OU. He’s got a great relationship with James Cregg at LSU, but never been there. He's originally from Georgia. Whenever it boils down, he has been to SMU and Texas a bunch. I think he was eyeing, a commitment right before the start of his season. So I think the biggest thing for him, will he stick with the RaShaad Samples thing or not? Is he a kid that feels his best relationship is with SMU, the school he’s visited and knows better than anyone else. Or does he want to play for a Power 5 school like Texas? Whenever he kind of sifts through that, SMU is the favorite non-Power 5 college, Texas is the favorite big college.”

Bryce Foster – “I think, among his top five, Oregon and LSU, schools he's been to one or two times, they are there two that are at the bottom of the top five. Oklahoma is I think currently the team trending. OU, if he had to make a decision today, Oklahoma I think is on top and A&M is probably right behind them because of connections through his mom and brother, and proximity to the house. So I think OU at 1, A&M 1B, Texas 1C, not far behind. Do I think he ends up in Texas? No, not right now. Do I think he could end up in Texas? Maybe. The fact that he made that second or third visit to OU right before (the dead period), I think that hurts the other teams.”

Matthew Wykoff - “I don't have a great read on him. I do know him and I have talked to him but I think he’d be the number one guy Texas would try to get if Savion Byrd or the Brockermeyers make their decision and it’s not Texas. He’s the number one call you make. He’s really good on tape. He could be an elite guy with some development. He’s tall, he’s lean, he’s a little skinny. He’s technically sound.”
 

 

15 minutes ago, lemonandaturd said:

With Derrick Harris Jr.  committed and in a good spot with Jaydon Williams and Cooks, will we be done at LB with those three or do we also take four with Steele if he wants in?  

Clayton Smith and Derrick Harris will be an edge guys (WDE/Jacks), Williams at Will, Cooks at Mike. You've also got Sanders and Jackson for DE. 

I get the sense we will take any and all of these guys and let it work itself out. Too many guys recruited to be 4i's on the roster that are spinning down to 3-techs. Need to load up on real pass rushers. 

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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6 minutes ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

WR Quaydarius Davis – “He's a wild card. I mean, that's always been his M/O. I think the last time we talked, I would definitely pencil him into Texas's class. He's a potential five-star wide receiver. Every time I see him I like him more and more, but he has some things he’ll have to work through. There are things coaches are going to have to decide, because at receiver you're going to sign two, three or four each year and Quay has more talent than most receivers in Texas. I think there's a serious gap between him and the next one up like a JoJo Earl or Shadrach Banks. I think his skill set is a notch above every single one of those guys. But you have to counter that with other stuff. So I think like Texas has and always has been a favorite, but I could see a USC, an, SMU an LSU suddenly move to the top if he feels more comfortable at any one of those schools.

Has anyone ever come out and said what's up? Usually bagmen get called out. Hell we even heard when that one player's mom was banging an assistant for OU.

Why the hush hush?

Is he near homeless? Mental illness? Juvenile criminal record?

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Elmer_Fudd

Elmer_Fudd 22109

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16 minutes ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

Baylor seems to be way out in front for Blackwell and the staff has clearly shifted focus to Williams who is most likely to be the next commit on 5/1. Williams' tape is better as well imo. His first step is elite.

I'd like to see Williams play in space.  All his highlights he's coming off the edge.  Agree on first step.

Blackwell is a true LB with great sideline-to-sideline speed.

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texifornia

texifornia 56565

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37 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Has anyone ever come out and said what's up? Usually bagmen get called out. Hell we even heard when that one player's mom was banging an assistant for OU.

Why the hush hush?

Is he near homeless? Mental illness? Juvenile criminal record?

Just publically there's the multiple commits/decommits and having a kid at age 17. Playing for a DISD school can correlate (hardly all the time obviously) with coming from a tougher background as well.

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Laga4

Laga4 1270

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50 minutes ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

Stream of consciousness stuff from Spiegelman

  Hide contents

It’s been a while since we checked in with Rivals recruiting analyst Sam Spiegelman, so we hit him up this week to get his thoughts on the top offensive players Texas has offered from the state of Texas. We’ll follow up with Spiegelman soon to pick his brain on the players on the defensive side of the ball.

QB Garrett Nussmeier – “I think he's trying to take a look at the options he's very familiar with - the LSUs, his relationship with Rhett Lashlee Miami, at least he has a trust factor with Lashlee. I think he has intrigue in both Texas and Texas A&M. You could put the familiarity factor in with TCU as well. I think he's absolutely torn. I think he's a strong LSU lean and has been for the bulk of his recruitment. Obviously, he was an early offer for LSU and they signed Marcel Brooks a couple years ago. So they've been at Marcus for a long time. He's got a lot of intrigue in Texas and coach Yurcich and obviously Texas A&M offering is an eyebrow raiser, so I think he's balancing whether he should go with his gut and LSU or should he take the time to explore these new options. I think the fact that he's saying that he could commit any minute or not, is a bit of a puzzle. I could see him committing on Saturday - and we're ready in case he does - but he has not told me that he will for sure, he just is kind of going with the flow and I think he's using this quarantine to kind of weigh those two options. So I would not be surprised if he gets it out of the way as early as Saturday, or if he does not I could see this playing out into one of the more interesting recruitments whenever this Coronavirus pandemic slows down a bit. It's like, are you gonna get Are you gonna just commit to LSU?”

RB Camar Wheaton – “The one thing I have on Camar is that he is using this time to kind of figure out which schools are going to get officials and when they are going to be. That's obviously with the presumption that this thing is going to end sometime before the season. Obviously, he keeps to himself and that has stayed the same. But according to people in his camp, he's going to make the most of this time and the sense I continue to hear for Camar would be Texas, Oklahoma, LSU and Alabama. I certainly do think SMU would be a sleeper fifth option for him for an official visual. He has a great relationship with Preston (Stone). But those are the big four for him. And the fact that he was able to make it to Texas and OU right before this dead period, I think it definitely kind of boils down to those two unless he wants to really give a hard look at the SEC or staying home at SMU.”

RB LJ Johnson – “I don't see Texas as like the leader despite the ranking the contenders piece. I think it's definitely a four-way lead. I think it's Texas and Texas A&M, OU and LSU. And you could easily make an argument for any four of those schools right now. I think the fifth school is kind of like it depends on the time or the day. Obviously, he likes Stanford and the educational system there, none of those other four are going to really compare to that. And then you can also rotate schools like Alabama or Georgia or any other high-profile, national school. But in terms of visits, those first four I listed off are definitely a notch above everyone else. He's from Louisiana and has been camping at LSU since he was like in diapers and his dad played there. Texas and Texas A&M are the two in-state schools and you really kind of factor OU into that mix as well. It seems like Texas and OU are kind of playing this game ‘We’ll take Camer or LJ, whoever wants in first.’ There's not a huge drop-off between those two guys. OU is kind of the same way - they're in the Kamar Wheaton sweepstakes but they’d be very happy with LJ. Again, the fact that he can visit schools right now I think looms really large. A&M, he's been there a ton, they're recruiting him hard. He's a Jimbo Fisher-type of running back. Again, you can make the case for any one of those schools, but Texas is certainly in it as much as any one of them. I think the visits loom especially large for him because he kind of has those four really tightly packed in his recruitment, but he needs something to kind of distinguish one of them.”

RB Jonathon Brooks – “I don't know him well, and I've never seen him up close. He's one of those kids that it seems like it was Texas or Texas Tech, and he’d be comfortable going to either one of those schools. He's one of those guys that I know Carrington went to see leading up to national signing day. He's one of those guys that was on my list that I definitely wanted to see this offseason. He's a mid-three star. But one of those guys that if you could see in person, he might have a huge chance to definitely be one of those three- to four-star prospects that kind of grabs their fourth star with a great offseason, or with a with a really strong senior campaign once we kind of got an idea of what he's able to do in person.”

WR Quaydarius Davis – “He's a wild card. I mean, that's always been his M/O. I think the last time we talked, I would definitely pencil him into Texas's class. He's a potential five-star wide receiver. Every time I see him I like him more and more, but he has some things he’ll have to work through. There are things coaches are going to have to decide, because at receiver you're going to sign two, three or four each year and Quay has more talent than most receivers in Texas. I think there's a serious gap between him and the next one up like a JoJo Earl or Shadrach Banks. I think his skill set is a notch above every single one of those guys. But you have to counter that with other stuff. So I think like Texas has and always has been a favorite, but I could see a USC, an, SMU an LSU suddenly move to the top if he feels more comfortable at any one of those schools.

WR JoJo Earle – “Everyone has pretty much offered him by now. He's got to go to a place that's going to utilize the slot receiver, a vertical receiver. He really liked schools like Texas and LSU during the season. Now he's got everywhere in the country to choose from. I think Texas is in it. I think you give a school like Texas or TCU a unique edge because he's been there and we know he fits in that kind of offense. But in terms of is he leaning somewhere at this point? No, he's the kind of kid that has to find the right fit. I think that he's a kid that these visits loom very large because he hasn't been leaning anywhere at any point in his recruitment. He's completely open to everyone. It's more like he has to make the right fit in terms of his playing style and who could actually use someone with his skillset, which is 4.3, 4.4 speed, beat you over the top and do things out of the slot.”

WR Theodore Knox – “I think he kind of comes down to Texas, Mississippi State - he's from Baton Rouge, he's never going to go to LSU - or like a random team like a Baylor. He feels really comfortable at Baylor as well. He does want to feel like the guy and I think it boils down to Texas or Mississippi State in the end. I know that Mississippi State has him at or close to the top on their board. They would love to take him and he's got a great relationship with Mississippi State. He has been there a bit. And I think the same counts for Texas. He's been there, him and his cousin (LB Martrell Harris) have been completely impressed by Texas. I think they're either 1A or 1B for him. You can make a case it's going to be either Teddy or JoJo Earle, whoever Texas wants between those two. They're going to pick one or the other, probably not both unless you want two of the same similar kind of speed guys in the class. But there is an easy path to see him at Texas when it's all said and done. He's a great fit for that offense, and he's got a great relationship with the staff - at least he did before all the coaching changes and new receiver coaches. But yeah, Texas is going to land him or JoJo. Maybe both, but yes, Texas is definitely something that has to be considered with him.”

WR Ketron Jackson – “He's a very quiet kid. He's a kid that's going to climb in our rankings if and whenever we have another rankings meeting. Not because of anything he's done lately, just rewatching his tape and that's all we have to go for so he's a kid that is going to definitely climb the rankings. I love him. I love his tape and always have and the more I watched it, the more I feel that he should be in that same range as a JoJo Earle, one of the best guys in Texas that we don't talk about because he plays at Royce City. If he was still at Lancaster, we might be talking about him more and rightfully so. I think he has come out and publicly called Arkansas one of the two or three teams up there along with Alabama. But I think like once Texas offered, they established themselves as a team that has to be considered whenever he does have that chance to get to campus and kind of talk with the coaches a little bit further. So I don't see him making a decision. Arkansas has some clout because he was able to get there and have a great visit and they love that he has a relationship with a lot of their other top targets, like Kaidon Salter. The only other schools that that I could obviously see him winding up at is a school like Texas or a school like Alabama that was in the mix early on. But Texas will be a major contender for him whenever he does have a chance to see campus. I think that he could end up Arkansas for argument's sake, but even though he might have said they’re a leader at one point, no, they're not a true favorite. They're a top four or five team for him and he's got a great relationship with staff there, but he's one of those kids that’s a really solid, potentially high four-star kid that is really hurt by the Coronavirus (in terms of exposure). Texas at least offered him, and I think that's a team that you know is definitely want to keep an eye on whenever he can finally get to campus.”

WR Hal Presley – “I think that he's a guy that you could very easily see in Texas’ class. if things were normal right now, I would definitely see them at or close to the top of his leaderboard. He's another guy who a lot of schools really like and I think when Texas offered him, they were going to offer him now … he's kind of like a Kelvontay Dixon from last year where Texas is like, they’re not going to slow play him so let’s just offer him now and then we'll figure out the numbers later. I could see him in Texas's or Baylor’s or TCU’s class at any point. Sometimes it’s a numbers game and Texas was in it early and obviously views him as one of the very, very good potential options whenever things get back to normal. I like his tape. He's a kid that’s hurt by not being able to take visits, but I think Texas will be one of those teams that either is at or close to the top for him. But I don’t really have a read on what he’s thinking until these things kind of get back to normal.”

TE Lake McRee – “He’s from Lake Travis and was committed (to Texas) for so long, I think given the opportunity to kind of go back into the class … do I see it? It could kind of hinge on what’s going on with other guys and they already have Juan Juan Davis. He’s very much a kid that that was hurt by not really playing last year. And I think that the separation from Texas, you could see it coming from a mile away. He's got a lot of offers, but for a kid that lives 20 minutes away from Texas, he didn't really explore them too seriously because he was such an early commitment. Early on it seemed like a match made in heaven. But again, he’s a kid that was hurt a little bit by not playing and committing so early on, but I think that despite what he has in his top 10, I think he’s probably only visited Texas at this point. So I think he probably has no legitimate idea of where he's going to end up. He could make his way back into their class as much as an Auburn or some of those other schools. When he’s healthy, he is one of the better tight ends in the country , but I really don’t have a clue. Of his top 10, I don’t have a good idea of where he will end up.”

TE Elijah Arroyo – “He’s probably the best tight ends in the state right now. It's so funny because whenever that name first came across my way, I was like “Who is Elijah Arroyo?’ But now, at the moment, probably the top tight end in the state, a kid that could play anywhere. He’s another that’s hurt very bad by not being able to see a lot of schools but if you had to give up top four top three, four or five, you could make a case that he could end up at Texas. You could make a case that he could end up at Oklahoma, he could end up at Alabama, he could end up at Auburn - schools that he has at least a legitimate relationship with, and schools that he at least has seen at least once or twice. He's a legitimate, you know what you're going to get with Elijah, but again a kid hurt by not being able to talk to coaches in person or go back to campus. Whenever things get down to it, I expect Texas to be in it and I expect them to be at least a number 1, 1B or 2option when whenever he has to sit down. But no idea where he is with the process without being able to play football or go see a school up close.”

TE Landen King – “When I saw Landen, I was like ‘Wow, he is a kid that will probably get a lot of offers because it's a weird position in a weird year.’ I could see him at Texas. I could see him at Texas A&M. It wouldn't surprise me if he ended up there. He's a very good pass-catching tight end or flex tight end. He's a good, not great hand in the dirt guy, kind of kind of like a Lake McRee. I know that he whenever I did talk to him right before he dropped the top 10, he talked about schools like Washington, Georgia, Alabama - all those all those schools that offered. But because he’s from Atascocita, Texas or Texas A&M, I think it could be either one of those. I think Texas or A&M.”

Tommy Brockermeyer and James Brockermeyer – “Could they end up at Texas? Of course. Texas is probably benefiting in this one from the COVID thing because Alabama is a school that right now, that’s the only official visit they might have been able to get to before all this crap. Because they’re legacies, they could end up (at Texas). I think it’ll be Texas or Alabama in the end, so Alabama is a school that is easily the most hurt by this. And Texas is probably the school that benefits the most from it. But yeah, Texas, Alabama. I want to say a Clemson or Auburn, but it’s more Alabama or Texas, whenever they’re able to figure it out. LSU would probably be a distant third, Auburn in that same boat.”

Savion Byrd – “Honestly, LSU and OU you are in the same boat - schools that have been in it, but he has never seen them. He's got a great relationship with Bedenbaugh at OU. He’s got a great relationship with James Cregg at LSU, but never been there. He's originally from Georgia. Whenever it boils down, he has been to SMU and Texas a bunch. I think he was eyeing, a commitment right before the start of his season. So I think the biggest thing for him, will he stick with the RaShaad Samples thing or not? Is he a kid that feels his best relationship is with SMU, the school he’s visited and knows better than anyone else. Or does he want to play for a Power 5 school like Texas? Whenever he kind of sifts through that, SMU is the favorite non-Power 5 college, Texas is the favorite big college.”

Bryce Foster – “I think, among his top five, Oregon and LSU, schools he's been to one or two times, they are there two that are at the bottom of the top five. Oklahoma is I think currently the team trending. OU, if he had to make a decision today, Oklahoma I think is on top and A&M is probably right behind them because of connections through his mom and brother, and proximity to the house. So I think OU at 1, A&M 1B, Texas 1C, not far behind. Do I think he ends up in Texas? No, not right now. Do I think he could end up in Texas? Maybe. The fact that he made that second or third visit to OU right before (the dead period), I think that hurts the other teams.”

Matthew Wykoff - “I don't have a great read on him. I do know him and I have talked to him but I think he’d be the number one guy Texas would try to get if Savion Byrd or the Brockermeyers make their decision and it’s not Texas. He’s the number one call you make. He’s really good on tape. He could be an elite guy with some development. He’s tall, he’s lean, he’s a little skinny. He’s technically sound.”
 

 

Clayton Smith and Derrick Harris will be an edge guys (WDE/Jacks), Williams at Will, Cooks at Mike. You've also got Sanders and Jackson for DE. 

I get the sense we will take any and all of these guys and let it work itself out. Too many guys recruited to be 4i's on the roster that are spinning down to 3-techs. Need to load up on real pass rushers. 

Dam that was like hard to read.

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Elmer_Fudd

Elmer_Fudd 22109

Posted
Posted

Super K on LB Aaron Willis.

*I spoke with recently offered 2021 LB, Aaron Willis out of the DMV area (St. Frances Academy).

Texas recently made his top seven along with Michigan, LSU, Alabama, Tennessee, Maryland and Arizona State.

I’ll have more on Willis, shortly but wanted to make an initial note. As I previously mentioned, he is originally from Texas and still has family in Texas but a couple things that stood out when he expanded on that, that I was unaware of are:

– His family are Texas fans.

– Despite moving away from Texas when he was still young, he still visits the state frequently to spend time with family.

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Elmer_Fudd

Elmer_Fudd 22109

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7 minutes ago, TexanTraveling said:

What is his story, wasnt he one of the guys that was rated highly at a young age and then everyone caught up? Thanks in advance.

Other may know, but I think maybe his Jr film didn"t matchup and look better than Soph year maybe?  247 dropped him to a 3* recently, but he's still #184 in the country in the composite.

Also, from the OU side, sounds like communication has dropped some between them and Mukuba.

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Ricky's one-hitter

Ricky's one-hitter 9084

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Just now, Elmer_Fudd said:

Also, TFB says the staff now wants Coffey.

Yeah, Roach reiterated that in the podcast as well. IT also said as much last week. 

With the inability to get oos guys on campus, they are shifting back to in-state. The Harmon offer and reprioritizing Coffey are indicative of that, and it sounds like they've made some headway with Mukuba as well. There is a real shot with Willis, and to a lesser extent the CA DBs, but it's good to see a real shift away from wishcasting as aggy is faced with a similar predicament. 

I'm not really sure where Willis fits in the class. He looks like a Derrick Harris upgrade, but without the frame to spin down. Don't see any camp shuttles or 40s, but he's probably a mike, maybe a will. Definitely covet.

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texifornia

texifornia 56565

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

Super K on LB Aaron Willis.

*I spoke with recently offered 2021 LB, Aaron Willis out of the DMV area (St. Frances Academy).

Texas recently made his top seven along with Michigan, LSU, Alabama, Tennessee, Maryland and Arizona State.

I’ll have more on Willis, shortly but wanted to make an initial note. As I previously mentioned, he is originally from Texas and still has family in Texas but a couple things that stood out when he expanded on that, that I was unaware of are:

– His family are Texas fans.

– Despite moving away from Texas when he was still young, he still visits the state frequently to spend time with family.

It's awesome that our previous defensive staff didn't know the #109 ranked player in the country, from a powerhouse high school, at a need position, grew up a Texas fan. Have fun with that, USC!

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