Texas Recruiting Notes 2021

[Hiphopopotamos 20869]

4 minutes ago, Laga4 said:

That's hard to look at. 

When I started putting it together I didn't realize fucking TCU would be ahead of us.   I knew they had some recent picks - but damn...

[LetYourNutsHang 8]

14 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Chicken/egg. And it doesn’t matter, improvement. Does Brandon Jones go higher than the third? Maybe. Do those prospects go pro at Texas? Maybe. As High? Who knows. The real problem with that list is the fact that Baylor is getting more 3 stars drafted in higher rounds than Texas with what is perceived (and in reality) inferior talent. You throw that into the mix with the sheer number of players for other schools and it’s a pretty compelling argument that Texas does less with more. Other schools are doing more with more, and other schools are doing more with less. 

Care to elaborate? EDIT: about the inferior talent part

Edited May 20, 2020 by LetYourNutsHang

[LetYourNutsHang 8]

4 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

When I started putting it together I didn't realize fucking TCU would be ahead of us.   I knew they had some recent picks - but damn...

They’ve had a better program over that period, so I’d be surprised only if they had fewer draft picks

[texifornia 56945]

Sheesh every day on this thread this week

[SydneyCarton 48092]

 

11 minutes ago, LetYourNutsHang said:

Care to elaborate? EDIT: about the inferior talent part

 

8 minutes ago, LetYourNutsHang said:

They’ve had a better program over that period, so I’d be surprised only if they had fewer draft picks

These two posts of yours dovetail, so I'll answer both, since they are related. Per the various rankings sites, Baylor hasn't sniffed Texas's recruiting ranks during their entire successfun run under Briles, and now. We just literally stole the best commit from their last class a few weeks ago and he's probably, what, the 15th ranked player in our 2020 class (I looked it up he was our 14th highest ranked player, Baylor's 4th). Now, you can say there's room for error, and you can say there's superior evaluation, you can say there is player attrition you can say there's late risers, busts and flakes, and all of that can be true. But even if all that were true at once, when you're talking about a 10 year time period, and all the classes look like that related to one another (or worse) it's pretty safe and accurate to say that one school, from an athletic raw materials perspective, has a talent advantage over the other. Baylor's 2020 class had exactly two 4 stars. It wasn't ranked in the top 50. Their only top 25 class in the last decade was 2014, coming in at exactly 25. 

Better programs can lead to better draft picks, but that doesn't mean the programs have the same level of raw materials. It just means they're developing talent better. 

[UncleBuck 6454]

44 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Maybe Alabama and Ohio state and LSU put more players in the league and in higher rounds because the best prospects go there?  How many Texas prospects has Texas wanted badly, who would have been drafted as a longhorn, but chose to go to those other places?

or are we thinking that okudah and chaisson and others wouldn’t have been drafted had they chosen Texas?  

That's for sure part of it, and this is exactly what Tom and the staff are having to sell these kids, that they the player themselves are by far the biggest part of the equation (partly true), along with "this is the year you start to see the progress MY staff has made here." The problem is, it just hits a little easier for these kids when they see the names and schools right in front of them, and there's five schools tellin' them what you don't want them to hear vs. just you. 

Edited May 20, 2020 by UncleBuck

[Getafix 28606]

From Rynoag04, a poster on Aggie 247.  There appear to be only 4 changes of significance (I've bolded them).

Notable A&M/State of Texas Related Changes in the New Top 247

#10 Tommy Brockermeyer (-1)
#11 Donovan Jackson (-1) – Ohio State
#16 Ja’Tavion Sanders (-1) – Texas
#19 Tony Grimes (-1)
#29 LJ Johnson (+2)
#32 Terrence Lewis (-15) – Tennessee
#36 Savion Byrd (+1)
#37 Billy Bowman (+1) – Texas
#42 Camar Wheaton (+2)
#52 Cody Jackson (+2) – OU
#57 Clayton Smith (+4) – OU
#67 Shemar Turner (+164)
#72 Jojo Earle (-4) – LSU
#73 Landon Jackson (-4) – LSU
#80 Tunmise Adeleye (+3) – Ohio State
#90 Kaidon Salter (-2) – Tennessee
#97 Jalen Milroe (-2) – Texas
#98 Dematrius Davis (-2) – Auburn
#107 Preston Stone (NC) – SMU
#112 Reuben Fatheree (+1)
#113 Bryce Foster (+1)
#117 Eli Stowers (+1) – Texas A&M
#118 Tywone Malone (+1)
#129 Shadrach Banks (+8) – Texas A&M
#132 Marcus Burris (-29)
#156 Ketron Jackson (-1)
#163 Sawyer Robertson (-4) – Mississippi State
#167 Jordon Thomas (-5) – Texas
#172 Latrell McCutchin (-5)
#174 Theodore Knox (-5)
#178 Quaydarius Davis (-4) – USC
#181 Romello Brinson (-4)
#191 Behren Morton (-6) – Texas Tech
#207 Garrett Nussmeier (-8) – LSU
#208 Andrew Mukuba (-6)
#218 Monkell Goodwine (-8)
#222 Tate Williams (NC) – Baylor
#224 Trey Zuhn (-7) – Texas A&M
#235 Deuce Harmon (-8)
#238 Ishmael Ibraheem (-139)

[LetYourNutsHang 8]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

 

These two posts of yours dovetail, so I'll answer both, since they are related. Per the various rankings sites, Baylor hasn't sniffed Texas's recruiting ranks during their entire successfun run under Briles, and now. We just literally stole the best commit from their last class a few weeks ago and he's probably, what, the 15th ranked player in our 2020 class (I looked it up he was our 14th highest ranked player, Baylor's 4th). Now, you can say there's room for error, and you can say there's superior evaluation, you can say there is player attrition you can say there's late risers, busts and flakes, and all of that can be true. But even if all that were true at once, when you're talking about a 10 year time period, and all the classes look like that related to one another (or worse) it's pretty safe and accurate to say that one school, from an athletic raw materials perspective, has a talent advantage over the other. Baylor's 2020 class had exactly two 4 stars. It wasn't ranked in the top 50. Their only top 25 class in the last decade was 2014, coming in at exactly 25. 

Better programs can lead to better draft picks, but that doesn't mean the programs have the same level of raw materials. It just means they're developing talent better. 

You’re basing your argument on the false assumption that a recruit’s number of stars is an infallible measurement of said player’s level of talent. There were more four more 3-star first round draft picks this year than 5-star ones (7-3). Obviously part of that is a numbers game since there are many more 3-star recruits, but it’s still telling. Since 2015 we’ve had an equal number of 3-star draft picks as 4/5-star ones too.

[Pato del Muerto 52494]

8 minutes ago, UncleBuck said:

That's for sure part of it, and this is exactly what Tom and the staff are having to sell these kids, that they the player themselves are by far the biggest part of the equation (partly true), along with "this is the year you start to see the progress MY staff has made here." The problem is, it just hits a little easier for these kids when they see the names and schools right in front of them, and there's five schools tellin' them what you don't want them to hear vs. just you. 

That’s where a motivated Mack Brown did great things for us at one time, and appears to be doing the same things at unc for a second time. Talent above all else, and being able to land some bigger fish than your tackle should allow. 

[Getafix 28606]

Saw this on 247 ... 

 

(When asked about the threat of the pandemic, Coach Nick Saban responded "There's a pandemic?")*

*Apocryphal, but not implausible ... right?

 

[texifornia 56945]

4 minutes ago, LetYourNutsHang said:

You’re basing your argument on the false assumption that a recruit’s number of stars is an infallible measurement of said player’s level of talent. There were more four more 3-star first round draft picks this year than 5-star ones (7-3). Obviously part of that is a numbers game since there are many more 3-star recruits, but it’s still telling. Since 2015 we’ve had an equal number of 3-star draft picks as 4/5-star ones too.

He's not saying they're infallible in any individual case, he's saying over time getting high-ranked recruits matters to team success, especially at the high P5 level where the coaching is all generally very good to elite . They also matter to player success in terms of likelihood of becoming All-Americans and getting drafted. This is a good aggregation of articles: https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2016/2/2/10889856/national-signing-day-rankings-ncaa-football

Edited May 20, 2020 by texifornia

[Hiphopopotamos 20869]

4 minutes ago, LetYourNutsHang said:

You’re basing your argument on the false assumption that a recruit’s number of stars is an infallible measurement of said player’s level of talent. There were more four more 3-star first round draft picks this year than 5-star ones (7-3). Obviously part of that is a numbers game since there are many more 3-star recruits, but it’s still telling. Since 2015 we’ve had an equal number of 3-star draft picks as 4/5-star ones too.

Thats actually not what he said at all.

[LetYourNutsHang 8]

14 hours ago, Bob Lives! said:

What percent of 4/5 stars has Herman sent to the league in the last 5 years?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There’s so much wrong with what he said. First off, if going back 5 years/recruiting classes, only 2016 and 2017 recruits would’ve been even eligible to be drafted. It also ignores 3 three-star draft picks and 12 4-star recruits that have transferred/quit due to medical conditions/failed to make it on campus. 

[Ricky's one-hitter 9103]

2 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Thats actually not what he said at all.

When you can't generate genuine disagreement, manufacture some. Troll 101.

[LetYourNutsHang 8]

4 minutes ago, texifornia said:

He's not saying they're infallible in any individual case, he's saying over time getting high-ranked recruits matters to team success, especially at the high P5 level where the coaching is all generally very good to elite . They also matter to player success in terms of likelihood of becoming All-Americans and getting drafted. This is a good aggregation of articles: https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2016/2/2/10889856/national-signing-day-rankings-ncaa-football

I’m referencing the statement that Baylor has had inferior talent based on number of stars.

[LetYourNutsHang 8]

What’s unclear about “The real problem with that list is the fact that Baylor is getting more 3 stars drafted in higher rounds than Texas with what is perceived (and in reality) inferior talent.“

[texifornia 56945]

1 minute ago, LetYourNutsHang said:

I’m referencing the statement that Baylor has had inferior talent based on number of stars.

Over ten years, that's a valid statement. Briles and Rhule were better developers than late Mack/Strong/Herman. You're being obtuse.

Edited May 20, 2020 by texifornia

[tokamak 6427]

A slightly rose-colored view might be that the Excel analysis shows that if you get 5 guys drafted per recruiting class, you're doing pretty well. Obviously Alabama is in a league by themselves.

Tom's first real class was 2018. It looks pretty much on track to me. Sterns and Ossai will get drafted for sure. I'd say things look good for Foster, Coburn, and Eagles. Then several more dudes like the rest of the DBs and Ingram could have a shot if they finish their careers strong. Helps that it was a big class, but even with a lot of attrition, I'd be surprised if we don't have 6+ drafted from that class at the end of the day.

[LetYourNutsHang 8]

Just now, texifornia said:

Over ten years, that's a valid statement. Briles and Rhule were better developers than late Mack/Strong/Herman. 

It’s an opinion that is based on an assumption that a player’s recruiting ranking is infallible. We’ve had 3 three-star draft picks in the last two classes with players eligible to be drafted and will have a 3-star going in the first round next year according to every mock draft.

[UncleBuck 6454]

[LetYourNutsHang 8]

8 minutes ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

When you can't generate genuine disagreement, manufacture some. Troll 101.

Ironic

[texifornia 56945]

Yeah, just futureman 2.0

Time to purify the page

 

Edited May 20, 2020 by texifornia

[LetYourNutsHang 8]

1 minute ago, texifornia said:

Yeah, just futureman 2.0

Time to purify the page

 

Hahaha

[SydneyCarton 48092]

28 minutes ago, LetYourNutsHang said:

You’re basing your argument on the false assumption that a recruit’s number of stars is an infallible measurement of said player’s level of talent. There were more four more 3-star first round draft picks this year than 5-star ones (7-3). Obviously part of that is a numbers game since there are many more 3-star recruits, but it’s still telling. Since 2015 we’ve had an equal number of 3-star draft picks as 4/5-star ones too.

No, actually, I'm not basing my argument on that false assumption. I identified and recognized the flaws in the system when I outlined, attrition, busts, flakes, etc. I went WELL out of my way to identify the potential flaws in the recruiting system. Of course there were more 3 and 4 stars drafted in the first round. There are 32 (well call it 50) five stars a year, and there's literally a few hundred 4 stars and hundreds more 3 stars. 5 stars are a very tiny tiny percentage of players. 

It doesn't change the fact that while outliers and exceptions exist, generally speaking everyone here except you apparently agrees that recruiting class rankings are a fairly accurate gauge year to year of the talent that exists on a school's roster. Texas is overwhelmingly had more talent than Baylor. To think otherwise is lunacy. So, yeah, it makes sense this is where you would land. Or do you really want to make a case that Baylor's average class ranking of about 40 over the last 10 years is fundamentally more talented than the ones signed by Texas in the last decade? Show your work. And before you say "look at draft results" everyone knows that's horseshit because development matters, as does coaching, and we're talking about pure talent. And before you ask to show my work, my work is illustrated by the literal multiple recruiting services that have hundreds of employees that view, rank, and evaluate HS talent and come to a consensus. 

[Bigpoppapump 529]

Can we talk about cheese, kate or something else? Draft picks over the past 10 years is too depressing.

[jinx 2635]

5 minutes ago, Bigpoppapump said:

Can we talk about cheese, kate or something else? Draft picks over the past 10 years is too depressing.

How about the Brockermeyers going Bama because we can't manage to get our shit straight?

[Ricky's one-hitter 9103]

Just now, jinx said:

How about the Brockermeyers going Bama because we can't manage to get our shit straight?

No, thank you.

[Burt Macklin 19023]

47 minutes ago, LetYourNutsHang said:

You’re basing your argument on the false assumption that a recruit’s number of stars is an infallible measurement of said player’s level of talent. There were more four more 3-star first round draft picks this year than 5-star ones (7-3). Obviously part of that is a numbers game since there are many more 3-star recruits, but it’s still telling. Since 2015 we’ve had an equal number of 3-star draft picks as 4/5-star ones too.

 

37 minutes ago, LetYourNutsHang said:

I’m referencing the statement that Baylor has had inferior talent based on number of stars.

 

32 minutes ago, LetYourNutsHang said:

It’s an opinion that is based on an assumption that a player’s recruiting ranking is infallible. We’ve had 3 three-star draft picks in the last two classes with players eligible to be drafted and will have a 3-star going in the first round next year according to every mock draft.

Oooof. There’s a whole lot of stupid in these posts. Tough L for the troll here, but I’m sure he’ll keep trying. 

[irishtexan 11519]

This dude is like futureman with a little dash of "Derka rage-posting on the basketball board and responding to every single person that disagrees with him". In other words, he totally fucking sucks. Please put him on ignore like futureman and stop responding to his posts.

[Ricky's one-hitter 9103]

Last month there was smoke around Jaylin Davies, Jamier Johnson, and Jaylin Smith, the California DBs. It appears that Davies is out, but recent reports have affirmed the real interest in Texas from Jamier Johnson and Jaylin Smith.

https://247sports.com/Player/Jaylin-Smith-46093610/

https://247sports.com/Player/Jamier-Johnson-46079629/

Johnson: Biggins, a west coast 247 mod affirmed that Texas is in the top group for Jamier Johnson, we're also in his "official top 7" posted in April. 

Smith: Roach recently did an interview here *I believe*, and he made a comment about Smith being a real candidate to join the class. Some pictures of him working out with Chris Adimora in California as well. 

It would appear they're working on some combination of Mukuba, Harmon, Smith, and Johnson. Probably 2 spots, but they may take a 3rd from this group if the 3rd isn't Harmon. Also depends on what Ish does. 

 

[RGBIII 22840]

Shemar Turner is doing a zoom call with Texas today

[Ricky's one-hitter 9103]

Just now, RGBIII said:

Shemar Turner is doing a zoom call with Texas today

SHERMAR*******

 

/fat ketch

[UDontKnow 10444]

1 minute ago, RGBIII said:

Shemar Turner is doing a zoom call with Texas today

Gruntling. More Valai and possibly less Hagen please.

[SydneyCarton 48092]

9 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

This dude is like futureman with a little dash of "Derka rage-posting on the basketball board and responding to every single person that disagrees with him". In other words, he totally fucking sucks. Please put him on ignore like futureman and stop responding to his posts.

...Are you saying my propensity to respond to everyone one of his (or anyone’s) posts to me is NOT a noble and honorable morally just pursuit? Certainly not. 

[irishtexan 11519]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

...Are you saying my propensity to respond to everyone one of his (or anyone’s) posts to me is NOT a noble and honorable morally just pursuit? Certainly not. 

I'm just sayin' it's worth reevaluating...

[Elmer_Fudd 22216]

9 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:

Gruntling. More Valai and possibly less Hagen please.

With the wing champ sealing the deal.

[LetYourNutsHang 8]

48 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

No, actually, I'm not basing my argument on that false assumption. I identified and recognized the flaws in the system when I outlined, attrition, busts, flakes, etc. I went WELL out of my way to identify the potential flaws in the recruiting system. Of course there were more 3 and 4 stars drafted in the first round. There are 32 (well call it 50) five stars a year, and there's literally a few hundred 4 stars and hundreds more 3 stars. 5 stars are a very tiny tiny percentage of players. 

It doesn't change the fact that while outliers and exceptions exist, generally speaking everyone here except you apparently agrees that recruiting class rankings are a fairly accurate gauge year to year of the talent that exists on a school's roster. Texas is overwhelmingly had more talent than Baylor. To think otherwise is lunacy. So, yeah, it makes sense this is where you would land. Or do you really want to make a case that Baylor's average class ranking of about 40 over the last 10 years is fundamentally more talented than the ones signed by Texas in the last decade? Show your work. And before you say "look at draft results" everyone knows that's horseshit because development matters, as does coaching, and we're talking about pure talent. And before you ask to show my work, my work is illustrated by the literal multiple recruiting services that have hundreds of employees that view, rank, and evaluate HS talent and come to a consensus. 

Stopped reading after more 3- and 4-stars picks than 5-stars. I wrote more 3 stars than 5 stars. Big difference. And just for future reference, pointing out flaws in an assumption doesn’t by definition no longer make it an assumption. It makes it a more sound assumption, but still an assumption. I can tell this is going nowhere, so I’ll leave it at that. Not going to keep arguing about the definition of a word.

[LetYourNutsHang 8]

35 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

 

 

Oooof. There’s a whole lot of stupid in these posts. Tough L for the troll here, but I’m sure he’ll keep trying. 

Go on. Be specific 

[LetYourNutsHang 8]

35 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

This dude is like futureman with a little dash of "Derka rage-posting on the basketball board and responding to every single person that disagrees with him". In other words, he totally fucking sucks. Please put him on ignore like futureman and stop responding to his posts.

Doesn’t a troll make ad hominem statements?

[totallynotabuttpirate 5400]

2 minutes ago, LetYourNutsHang said:

Doesn’t a troll make ad hominem statements?

I don't know. It's pretty boring around here, so keep going I guess? At the very least, please step it up a bit. 

Edited May 20, 2020 by totallynotabuttpirate

[LetYourNutsHang 8]

1 minute ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

I don't know. It's pretty boring around here, so keep going I guess? At the very least, please step it up a bit. 

Thanks for sharing 

[futureman 22457]

1 hour ago, texifornia said:

Yeah, just futureman 2.0

Time to purify the page

You can have that perspective, and it doesn't faze me one bit. But the reality is I continue to positively impact hundreds of lives each year through my job and enjoy the mutual respect and gratitude shared with my students and colleagues. And now I'm going to go pack for my family's 10-day trip to Orlando.

[Dbeasy 15049]

Chicken/egg. And it doesn’t matter, improvement. Does Brandon Jones go higher than the third? Maybe. Do those prospects go pro at Texas? Maybe. As High? Who knows. The real problem with that list is the fact that Baylor is getting more 3 stars drafted in higher rounds than Texas with what is perceived (and in reality) inferior talent. You throw that into the mix with the sheer number of players for other schools and it’s a pretty compelling argument that Texas does less with more. Other schools are doing more with more, and other schools are doing more with less. 

Give me 3 hours with recruiting data and I can guarantee you I can figure out a way to present the data so that Texas looks pretty good and other teams look worse than they do now. All data can be manipulated to advantage.

[SydneyCarton 48092]

34 minutes ago, LetYourNutsHang said:

Stopped reading after more 3- and 4-stars picks than 5-stars. I wrote more 3 stars than 5 stars. Big difference. And just for future reference, pointing out flaws in an assumption doesn’t by definition no longer make it an assumption. It makes it a more sound assumption, but still an assumption. I can tell this is going nowhere, so I’ll leave it at that. Not going to keep arguing about the definition of a word.

Oh, you’ll address none of the points in the argument but instead will focus entirely on pedantry that has nothing to do with the issues laid out? Shocker. Futureman Jr. indeed.  
 

I doubt any here will hold their breath while eagerly anticipating your analysis on how Baylor’s recruiting classes could be considered more talented than those of Texas the last decade. I’m sure challenging accepted notions with the defense of “Well that’s just, like, your opinion man” works on other people, it’s not going to be a convincing argument to most posters here. 

Do me a favor and put me on ignore while you slink away. 

[HtownHorn 14678]

1 hour ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

Last month there was smoke around Jaylin Davies, Jamier Johnson, and Jaylin Smith, the California DBs. It appears that Davies is out, but recent reports have affirmed the real interest in Texas from Jamier Johnson and Jaylin Smith.

https://247sports.com/Player/Jaylin-Smith-46093610/

https://247sports.com/Player/Jamier-Johnson-46079629/

Johnson: Biggins, a west coast 247 mod affirmed that Texas is in the top group for Jamier Johnson, we're also in his "official top 7" posted in April. 

Smith: Roach recently did an interview here *I believe*, and he made a comment about Smith being a real candidate to join the class. Some pictures of him working out with Chris Adimora in California as well. 

It would appear they're working on some combination of Mukuba, Harmon, Smith, and Johnson. Probably 2 spots, but they may take a 3rd from this group if the 3rd isn't Harmon. Also depends on what Ish does. 

 

How different would WR recruiting be if Texas loaded up with 5 DBs from (Ish, Deuce, Coffey, Mukaba, Johnson, and Smith) and let Bowman play WR?

Edited May 20, 2020 by HtownHorn

[Thiefery 4995]

12 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

How different would WR recruiting be if Texas loaded up with 5 DBs from (Ish, Deuce, Coffey, Mukaba, Johnson, and Smith) and let Bowman play WR?

Been thinking the same thing..

[SydneyCarton 48092]

Just now, Thiefery said:

Been thinking the same thing..

Both of you should stop thinking that. For starters we’re not landing all those dudes. Additionally Bowman is better at DB than any of them. Does anyone lose sleep at night wondering if we should have played Earl Thomas at WR?

 

WR recruiting blows. Fortunately we have talented youngsters on the roster who should be able to act as a stop-gap. But we need to kill it next class. 

[Thiefery 4995]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

Both of you should stop thinking that. For starters we’re not landing all those dudes. Additionally Bowman is better at DB than any of them. Does anyone lose sleep at night wondering if we should have played Earl Thomas at WR?

 

WR recruiting blows. Fortunately we have talented youngsters on the roster who should be able to act as a stop-gap. But we need to kill it next class. 

[tokamak 6427]

Is the feeling on Mukuba right now that we're running 2nd to Clemson, and they might fill up before he can visit? Y'all have been a little more optimistic on him the last few days.

Would be nice for the fucking ball to bounce our way for once.

[Redneck Mutha 7955]

2 hours ago, jinx said:

How about the Brockermeyers going Bama because we can't manage to get our shit straight?

Sure why not?