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2021-2022 Texas Winter Weather Thread

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Hate

Hate 20108

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Since the Blastfurnace is officially dead for the year, it is time to focus on the coming winter.  There are some models picking up on a substantial cold front coming down in the middle of the month.  Of course, it is too early to know for sure but this would definitely be much colder than what we are used to seeing in November.

 

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Update: Uggh! A little long (per usual) but the situation calls for it. Basically, as I said above, it's Tuesday morning, within about 48 hrs. of the event, which is when models get better (er, m

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5294

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Winter Sneak Preview has already rolled into a good chunk of the state and should reach SETX later this afternoon. Dreary and rainy the next 24 hours with temps hovering in the 50's. Other parts of the state will be in the 40's. Nice, sunny weekend ahead, but still crisp with lows in the 40s/50s and highs below 75. Much calmer winds than last weekend's front.

 

 

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Deej

Deej 76796

Posted
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2 hours ago, Hate said:

Since the Blastfurnace is officially dead for the year, it is time to focus on the coming winter.  There are some models picking up on a substantial cold front coming down in the middle of the month.  Of course, it is too early to know for sure but this would definitely be much colder than what we are used to seeing in November.

 

file.php?id=18215&t=1

High School Film GIF

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texasdago

texasdago 7573

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Hate said:

Since the Blastfurnace is officially dead for the year, it is time to focus on the coming winter.  There are some models picking up on a substantial cold front coming down in the middle of the month.  Of course, it is too early to know for sure but this would definitely be much colder than what we are used to seeing in November.

 

file.php?id=18215&t=1

Thoughts and prayers to my fall tomato plants :(

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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vizag-real-estate-is-not-happening - DBA Kevlar

 

temps.png.c6e039ca701235fb19f7845bcaa1ab20.png

Latest is that the cold weather ain't coming anywhere near here.

Of course last year we all laughed...

.. but this ain't last year.

However, the Farmer's Almanac forecasts a '21 style Iceageddon for January.  We will see (rubs hands).

This one?  Maybe, possibly high 40's or 50's high, but so far most of the models ain't bitin'.

I'll be back to gloat or take the Frankie Walk of Shame.  Probably to gloat, tho, honestly...

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Hate

Hate 20108

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The models always lose the cold air for a few runs before they "find" it again.  This was never going to be a "iceageddon" type of cold front.  It was going to lower the temps by 20 or so degrees from the norm.  So that would be highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's for most of us.  I'm not disagreeing or arguing with Phd as he has forgotten more about the weather than I will ever know, but it might help to have a little context when you look at the maps like those posted above. 

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Telegraph_it

Telegraph_it 3357

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

vizag-real-estate-is-not-happening - DBA Kevlar

 

temps.png.c6e039ca701235fb19f7845bcaa1ab20.png

Latest is that the cold weather ain't coming anywhere near here.

Of course last year we all laughed...

.. but this ain't last year.

However, the Farmer's Almanac forecasts a '21 style Iceageddon for January.  We will see (rubs hands).

This one?  Maybe, possibly high 40's or 50's high, but so far most of the models ain't bitin'.

I'll be back to gloat or take the Frankie Walk of Shame.  Probably to gloat, tho, honestly...

These last few years have taught me to hope for the best and expect the worst. 

The latest model has the coldest anomaly off to the east. 

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mchookem

mchookem 16336

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Weatherbug has Austin back in the upper 70s/close to 80 next week with lows only about 10-15 degrees cooler...what am i missing? 🤔

i normally wouldn't care too much but am attending an outdoor wedding midweek and assumed the weather would be fine... are we gonna have to break out the ski parkas or what lol

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Hate said:

The models always lose the cold air for a few runs before they "find" it again.  

The thing about last year's (well, last Feb's) event is that the models, which 99% of the time moderate as you've said, got worse.  Then the actual weather got worse than the models.  Most people forget by now that the main reason why it got so bad is that NO model (I can remember anyway) predicted freezing temperatures before the main storm hit on Sunday night, but temps went < 32° on Thursday and never got above freezing.  We had light bouts of rain or drizzle that froze and trucks, supplies, etc. couldn't go anywhere.

Didn't take away from the main problem of natural gas lines freezing and all that horror, but the fact that people weren't able to get out and get food or propane or whatnot made a terrible situation twice as bad.

If I were a betting man, (hah!) I would bet that a similar 9-10 day 24 hour freeze won't happen again in my our my kids' lifetimes here.  But... that's why most bets lose.

Edit:  I get what you said about losing the cold before it comes back into the models (which is why I think it might actually get "down" to the 50's or possibly a little lower for this coming event), but really the huge, huge majority of them for Texas always moderate a lot warmer than the first crack like we're seeing in this one.  Pretty Boy on KXAN said last night that he thinks that the super cold air won't come down here next week and that it'll be seasonable, and I agree.

But, hey, our Magic 8 Balls only work some of the time.  I doubt it'll happen, I mean really doubt, but will leave a 5% CYA.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, mchookem said:

Weatherbug has Austin back in the upper 70s/close to 80 next week with lows only about 10-15 degrees cooler...what am i missing? 🤔

i normally wouldn't care too much but am attending an outdoor wedding midweek and assumed the weather would be fine... are we gonna have to break out the ski parkas or what lol

These really never are much good until about 6-7 days out, so we'll see what they do this weekend. I think they'll trend downward but not critically so (see above post).

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Hate

Hate 20108

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The Climate Prediction Center is getting on board with a possible cold front this weekend.  As most of them do, this one is currently forecast slide a little east of our area, but we should get enough of a glancing blow to have daytime highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's for a couple of days. 

temp_probhazards_d8_14_contoursd7cadb2d6

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Yeah, that one ain't happenin'.  Temps in 70's (day)/high 40's (overnight) all thru the weekend.  Pretty hard to generate a frigid outbreak around these parts until Dec. → generally.

Most of the cities with the brunt of cold air will be in the 40's for highs (i.e. Nashville, St. L, Louisville, etc.), although a few of the more northern ones will have highs in the 30's on Mon.  Cold, but not rare for those parts at this time of year.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25944

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13 minutes ago, Chet Steadman said:

Petition to rename this thread ‘2021-2022 Texas Winter Weather Thread’ so we don’t get inundated with the usual Minnesota/Idaho/Colorado/Ohio/Iowa posters on here posting about their 26th snowfall of the winter?

/s kindabutnotreally

Please Overlords, make this happen. For the 1 poster in Fairbanks I give you a salute. 

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  • Hate changed the title to 2021-2022 Texas Winter Weather Thread
Hate

Hate 20108

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1 hour ago, Chet Steadman said:

Petition to rename this thread ‘2021-2022 Texas Winter Weather Thread’ so we don’t get inundated with the usual Minnesota/Idaho/Colorado/Ohio/Iowa posters on here posting about their 26th snowfall of the winter?

/s kindabutnotreally

You're welcome even if I don't think it will change and I personally don't mind the updates from up north.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89672

Posted
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On 11/5/2021 at 11:00 AM, MissingInAction said:

What? You guys aren't stocked up on buckets to hold your toilet snow?

There's even a children's book about it.

Snow in Our Potties!

Quote

What happens when two massive winter storm systems collide in an area that rarely sees snow? From sledding in laundry baskets to jumping into frozen pools to rescue dogs, this book recounts the experiences of one family as well as individuals across the state of Texas. This rhyming book with the right amount of (snow in our) potty humor will leave you smiling and hopefully feeling grateful for the everyday luxuries we typically take for granted. A portion of proceeds is being donated to the Central Texas Food Bank and Water Mission, as a token of appreciation for the everyday wonders of access to food and clean water.

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