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2021-2022 Texas Winter Weather Thread

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Judge Roybeanbag
Judge Roybeanbag

Speaking of I probably shouldn’t share this story but I’m gonna anyway.  After a breakfast of some yogurt, a granola bar and some leftover garlic cheese grits, I was playing with my grandson in the ga

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

All day pot of red beans: Love a bowl of RBAR on a cold day.

phdhorn
phdhorn

Update: Uggh! A little long (per usual) but the situation calls for it. Basically, as I said above, it's Tuesday morning, within about 48 hrs. of the event, which is when models get better (er, m

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
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Unfortunately, La Niña is typically a drier season for us down here (December is actually right on the mark for a moderate La Niña).  Sorr-eee.  Moose out front shoulda told ya.  I don't see it.

However, as ad infinitum posted here, a La Niña dry winter don't mean much about how the spring/summer can go.  It can break within a week - or linger on.  Niñas and Niños are primarily winterish things and don't particularly govern the summers.  I.e. last summer was wet and cool.

The current outlook for the summer is warmer than normal, precip 50/50.  In other words, call me in March when it becomes realistic (although CPC's models are usually excellent - from about 2 months out... right now it's too soon).

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Thanks.  I'll take pics of your wife either via PM or on this thread.

She has a terrific ass.  I posted them (clothed) before.  Would have to find them.  Because "honey can I take a picture of your ass for the Surly pervos" usually is met with "I'd have to think about it" at least - before the gunshot.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Thank you for your sacrifice, phd.

You might be right.  Ammo's so expensive now it'd probably be a tradeoff. 

This is all you're gonna get and it don't particularly show much, but you'll get next to nothing and like it! (from annual OU loss @ fair about 3 yrs. ago, still the same except now her hair's permed (wavier for you aggys or SEC posters out there).

IMG_20171014_104815372.jpg

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Captain Ron

Captain Ron 12877

Posted
Posted (edited)

Back to weather - Boston just got a ton of snow. Just saw this broke a streak of 350ish days with not a single inch of snow, 5th longest streak I think.

About to fire up the snow blower to dig out the cars and walk. About a foot where I am at. 

Edited by Captain Ron
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utee94

utee94 15824

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Captain Ron said:

Back to weather - Boston just got a ton of snow. Just saw this broke a streak of 350ish days with not a single inch of snow, 5th longest streak I think.

About to fire up the snow blower to dig out the cars and walk. About a foot where I am at. 

Take it to the non-Texan winter thread, pal.  

 

 

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2223

Posted
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28 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

You might be right.  Ammo's so expensive now it'd probably be a tradeoff. 

This is all you're gonna get and it don't particularly show much, but you'll get next to nothing and like it! (from annual OU loss @ fair about 3 yrs. ago, still the same except now her hair's permed (wavier for you aggys or SEC posters out there).

IMG_20171014_104815372.jpg

Wait - I thought you were old. Like in your 60s old. Did you marry someone 20-30 years younger than you?  

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, UT_OB1 said:

Wait - I thought you were old. Like in your 60s old. Did you marry someone 20-30 years younger than you?  

1) I look fabulous!

2). She's 8 years younger than me and maintains herself exceptionally well. No, I didn't start dating her when I was 20.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Brothahorn said:

@phdhorn

So I shouldn't be concerned that Centerpoint is offering to send me 'free' power outage alerts? Like I wouldn't be able to figure that out.

They're not getting me ready for the next big winter apocalypse?

I think each of those messages adds .000003521 wattts to your phone output. Collect 20 million of them and you can warm your bedroom!

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Hate

Hate 20108

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Something may be brewing for late next week into the last week of January.  Models have trouble with systems this far out, but they are seeing something. It could get interesting with a risk of a cold blast and heavy precipitation depending on the timing.  I'd love a good old fashioned snowstorm at 30 degrees so we don't have to worry so much about power outages. 

temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

precip_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

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Updawg

Updawg 2266

Posted
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Concur. I used to enjoy a little bout of winter weather.

No more. That joy is dead forever. Kinda sucks.

Also, imagine how bad HEB is going to be at the mere mention of freezing precipitation next time.

Just got back and have never seen our Heb this stripped. Must be something else I hope. Reminded me of a grocery store in Houston before a hurricane
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Deej

Deej 76797

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1 hour ago, Hate said:

Something may be brewing for late next week into the last week of January.  Models have trouble with systems this far out, but they are seeing something. It could get interesting with a risk of a cold blast and heavy precipitation depending on the timing.  I'd love a good old fashioned snowstorm at 30 degrees so we don't have to worry so much about power outages. 

temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

precip_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

My husky mix:

Shark Tank Writing GIF

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Hate

Hate 20108

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I don' know. I don't really like cold weather, but if it is going to get cold I love it to snow.  I remember as a kid we had 13" inches of snow in January of 1985.  I lived out near Boerne on top of a hill.  We actually skied down our street.  We played football and you could dive for the ball because there was so much snow. It was a blast.  This last cold was too cold so the little snow we did get was too powdery.  You could really even make a snowball with it and it was too damn cold to be out in it anyway.  A little snow and 30 degrees for a day is fun. 

IF7E46PLAVACLKJVRP3WLJ7BZY.PNG

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
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16 hours ago, utee94 said:

I've never liked having snow, ice, or cold in general, in Austin.  I go to Colorado or Utah when I want to see snow.

Concur.  I grew up in (sorta) cold country on East Coast.  I attended the U. of Michigan graduate school.  That winter cured me of my enjoyment of cold.  I moved to Texas to school, where it was 65° December 17ish that year.   I got hooked after that.  I'm a lifelong winter sports enthusiast/former ski instructor and I can tell you that I never want to visit cold unless it's temporary, and for skiing.  The rest can blow it out its frostbitten ass.  If it never went below 60° night or day here again I would be fine.  You want cold?  Go to where it's supposed to be cold.  I don't love Austin Augusts but I can live with them, after all, I made the choice to move here and expect it.

On the current weather level, what's happening this week is more what's supposed to happen, at least in La Niña years... a blocking high typical of LN in the 4 corners/SW U.S. is preventing frigid air to plunge directly into Texas.  Coriolis effect, etc. has storms instead moving E through northern U.S. and then plunging down mainly east of the Mississippi.  This is what's gonna happen to the curent storm coming in which is going to give the SE and Atlantic Coast a good bit of snow.  Yes we'll cool off as the low sweeps down east of us and cold air funnels in on its west side, but that air is more moderated, and gives us 50's in the daytime, not 20's.  The bulk of the colder air sinks mainly E of us (20's and teens overnight in KY, AR, TN, SC, northern AL, MS, etc.).  We'll have a light freeze Sat and/or Sun overnight, but eventually temps back into the 60's by early mid-week.

When we have to freak out is when a blocking high begins sitting off NE Atlantic coast.  That shoves coldest air smack down to us.  Last Feb. that high sat there and nothing could displace it, so a series of cold fronts kept temps < freezing - night and day  - for 10 days.  The scenario for that happening again within 500, never mind 5 years, is almost off the charts.  Famous last words?  Maybe, but I doubt it.

One last thing - watch for very high winds coming in Saturday.  This is a powerful low and it's moving right by us; the pressure gradients will be very tight, and winds will whip up pretty nasty, could see sustained at 30 mph, gusts up to 60 here/there, for about 8-10 hours.  Could be tree limb/shingle displacement in areas.  Might be highest winds we've seen independent of a brief thunderstorm in a few years.  I'd take down flags and put your feather boas in the shed.
 

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3262

Posted
Posted
On 1/7/2022 at 12:05 PM, Captain Ron said:

Back to weather - Boston just got a ton of snow. [b]Just saw this broke a streak of 350ish days with not a single inch of snow[/b], 5th longest streak I think.

About to fire up the snow blower to dig out the cars and walk. About a foot where I am at. 

source? that's hard to believe.  

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Hate

Hate 20108

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For those talking about impending crazy cold weather in Texas, this Twitter thread might be useful...
 
https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1481314969794846721?s=20

Absolutely. Long range models cannot be trusted as fact. But they do get some things right. There were signals two weeks before last February that something “big” was possible. Some weather models sniffed out Harvey before it even made it into the Gulf several years ago. It’s why I post forecasts from the NWS. I post some things from other “sites” but they are from the models the NWS uses as well.
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gsoda3

gsoda3 3262

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Captain Ron said:

The sky. Where do you think precipitation comes from? And why do you find it so hard to believe?

the sky told you this broke a streak of 350 days without a single inch of snow?  

 

it's hard to believe b/c

1.)  it snows every year in boston.  a lot.  

2.)  just on this one day in february they recorded 2 inches of snow

Et0gzCYUUAAIUCX?format=jpg&name=medium

 

3.)  then almost 2 weeks later there was this. 

image.png.f3e2152e58d5d70a615cda9c9a71d72d.png

 

4.)  i know the suburbs surrounding boston last year recorded tens of inches of snow.  

 

 

Edited by gsoda3
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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted

I love that apparently-rumor mongering is a huge problem in the weather community but nobody vets the sources of their pandemic information. 

Totally on brand for America.  

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted
Just now, utee94 said:

Icepocalypse in Mexico?  Better them than us, I guess.

Yeah, but where are we gonna fly off to when our shit hits the fan?  I hear the Maldives are nice and they have no extradition treaty with the United States.  

Could that front late next week possibly bring snow?  Serious question because it looks like it'll be hovering around freezing and precip chances keep going up.

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utee94

utee94 15824

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Yeah, but where are we gonna fly off to when our shit hits the fan?  I hear the Maldives are nice and they have no extradition treaty with the United States.  

Could that front late next week possibly bring snow?  Serious question because it looks like it'll be hovering around freezing and precip chances keep going up.

Good point.  Send it on down to Central America, then.  Maldives look great but a little too rich for my blood.

Edited by utee94
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Hate

Hate 20108

Posted
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Posted
1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Yeah, but where are we gonna fly off to when our shit hits the fan?  I hear the Maldives are nice and they have no extradition treaty with the United States.  

Could that front late next week possibly bring snow?  Serious question because it looks like it'll be hovering around freezing and precip chances keep going up.

Too early to say for sure.  You should be able to plan for something by Tuesday or Wednesday.  Of course, by then the store shelves will be even emptier.  I'll be watching it this weekend and going to HEB and Spec's on Monday if the models keep showing it.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Shit, I didn't think about liquor.  We're good on groceries.  I can walk to Trader Joe's and their shelves are looking well stocked lately (knock on wood).  HEB would be too far and I wouldn't deal with the hysteria in there, even though all the WLH milfs panic-bouncing (yes, it's a term) in lululemons would be a nice distraction.  But doesn't look like anything more than a couple of days of wintry mix.  No biggie, but probably need to get some more booze just in case. 

I rise now to ask an important question---are liquor stores open on Monday ? 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105151

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Shit, I didn't think about liquor.  We're good on groceries.  I can walk to Trader Joe's and their shelves are looking well stocked lately (knock on wood).  HEB would be too far and I wouldn't deal with the hysteria in there, even though all the WLH milfs panic-bouncing (yes, it's a term) in lululemons would be a nice distraction.  But doesn't look like anything more than a couple of days of wintry mix.  No biggie, but probably need to get some more booze just in case. 

I rise now to ask an important question---are liquor stores open on Monday ? 

I'm good.  Found some .308 on the shelves this past week.  If it comes to it, I'll just go to Lobo's and take what I need.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15299

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Lobo said:

Yeah, but where are we gonna fly off to when our shit hits the fan?

Used to think it would be the ranch until I got stuck in Odessa when Ranger hill has a sheet of ice decades back.  Entire state was essentially bifurcated.  People sleeping in jails and gas stations.  Nobody could get up or down.  

They've since reduced the gradient, but it's still a good sized hill with a significant incline.  Any big ice storm locks that puppy down.

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