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2021-2022 Texas Winter Weather Thread

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Judge Roybeanbag
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Speaking of I probably shouldn’t share this story but I’m gonna anyway.  After a breakfast of some yogurt, a granola bar and some leftover garlic cheese grits, I was playing with my grandson in the ga

Brisketexan
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All day pot of red beans: Love a bowl of RBAR on a cold day.

phdhorn
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Update: Uggh! A little long (per usual) but the situation calls for it. Basically, as I said above, it's Tuesday morning, within about 48 hrs. of the event, which is when models get better (er, m

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Posted (edited)

No.  Just normal winter weather, if a bit on the colder side - highs mid/low 40's to low 50's, lows (Thurs-Sun mornings) mid-20's to around freezing in the area).

Just because we had one one-in-500-year event, people are now spooked to imagine we'll have a buncha them.

It could still of course get very cold for 2-3 days (ice up, be the same conditions as we had last year), and some of our biggest deep freezes in the past 20 years have been well into February - but - the chances of a freeze 24/7 lasting longer than 2-3 days at the very most are infinitesimal.  It's not gonna happen.

Edited by phdhorn
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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19191

Posted
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1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

It could still of course get very cold for 2-3 days (ice up, be the same conditions as we had last year), and some of our biggest deep freezes in the past 20 years have been well into February - but - the chances of a freeze 24/7 lasting longer than 2-3 days at the very most are infinitesimal.  It's not gonna happen.

It fucking better not happen or your ass is getting kicked.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

It fucking better not happen or your ass is getting kicked.

If it happens, you won't be able to get out of your house or drive, and you'll probably freeze to death anyway.  So no, not gonna happen.  I'm good either way.

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hookemATL

hookemATL 11739

Posted
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15 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

If it happens, you won't be able to get out of your house or drive, and you'll probably freeze to death anyway.  So no, not gonna happen.  I'm good either way.

I’ll walk uphill both ways and knock on every goddamned door in Bee Cave till I find you!

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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This is feeling like a proper Winter.  The fauna and flora need this, even if HEB's supply chain doesn't.  Could use a little precip, but I get the Nina cycle and we just grin 'n bear it and hope March/April brings proper showers.  

I'm not worried about another snowpacolypse like last February.  But just because we're "okay" in terms of normal weather patterns, doesn't mean ERCOT isn't still gonna fuck something up this Winter.  It was a "normal" Autumn (though too dry in October for our needs) and a "normal" Winter so far.  Whether or not it stays normal or we have another extreme cold event, that is separate and apart from the incompetence at ERCOT.  It can be a nice day in January -and- there can be stupid, corrupt people leading our grid system.  They are not mutually exclusive.  Now then, let's get out there and prune dammit---tomorrow is brush pickup day! 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted

Fair.  But I'm trying to capitulate to the "anything below 80 is NOT fine!" crowd.  I guess I was just romanticizing November which was nice.  But yeah uber-dry October and hot-as-fuckballs December sucked ass.  Anyway, I'm sure there's plenty of models that show 2021 calendar year was overall fairly normal for Texas.  My final point was hot, cold, normal, or indifferent.  You can have whatever climate/meteorological/weather data you want.  I still say that's a thing over here.  And over there are incompetent rubes that should be in prison running our power systems.  

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, texasdago said:

Yeah, those of us who are veterans of the Memorial Day, Tax Day, Harvey and Imelda floods were thinking the same thing... 

How many homes were built on the north side of Houston over those years?  All that concrete, water gotta go somewhere, and the prairie ain't there to soak it up anymore.  

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

Why do you hate capitalism?

I don't, clearly.  But we've gotta understand why water goes where it goes.  It's always gonna run to the bowl, but now it just does it faster and there's not as much bare land to soak it up.  So more of it running faster is just a fact.   

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

Meanwhile, off topic for the thread, I'm going to give a weather update later this evening.

Pretty good chance for light winter precip during the day Thursday. This is going to be a fairly typical colder winter spell for us, nothing even remotely resembling last February. You're not going to have to buy out HEB (as if there's anything on the shelves anyway, LOL). The only freezes will be as typical, i.e before sunup and just after. I don't think travel will be much affected either, this will be brief and light.

I'll be back later.

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Redneck Mutha

Redneck Mutha 7962

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8 hours ago, phdhorn said:

No.  Just normal winter weather, if a bit on the colder side - highs mid/low 40's to low 50's, lows (Thurs-Sun mornings) mid-20's to around freezing in the area).

Just because we had one one-in-500-year event, people are now spooked to imagine we'll have a buncha them.

It could still of course get very cold for 2-3 days (ice up, be the same conditions as we had last year), and some of our biggest deep freezes in the past 20 years have been well into February - but - the chances of a freeze 24/7 lasting longer than 2-3 days at the very most are infinitesimal.  It's not gonna happen.

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texasdago

texasdago 7573

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7 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

How many homes were built on the north side of Houston over those years?  All that concrete, water gotta go somewhere, and the prairie ain't there to soak it up anymore.  

Shoot, the west and NW side are where it's at... paving the Katy prairie so all that water can go into the Addicks and Barker watersheds.  At least the city, county, state and federal government are united in doing nothing about it so... you know, all good. 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Alright, here's the update:

Next 2 days unseasonably warm and clear.  Except for the %^&*()@)(* cedar pollen, really nice.  Enjoy 'em.

So the forecast deteriorates early Thursday a.m.  Somewhere around 3-4 a.m. a cold front currently in southern Canada will have made its way into the area.  This is a dandy of continental cold, typical for January.  The air will moderate, again as usual, as it makes its way down the continent.  By the time it hits Austin, it should be pretty salty, but Thursday should generally be above freezing in ATX, and the ground warm, esp. after the preceding 2 days near 80°.  This cold will last for about 4 days, but each day getting slightly warmer.  Thursday should be very chilly, temps in the low 40's south and east ATX, and down into the 30's the farther W/N you go.  We shouldn't generally be in an all-day freezing area, but spots around the region might not get much above 32°, again esp. N and W.  I'm thinking mid-upper 30's for most of us.  Again - above freezing.  Each day from Thurs. to Sunday, temps will tick up 5ish degrees for highs (Fri. low 40's, Sat. mid-upper 40's to 50ish, Sun. 50's).  There will be 4 overnights with clearly freezing temps area-wide... mid-to upper 20's for TravWilHaysCo, warmer nearer downtown.  But these freezes will end by mid-morning each day.  So yeah, it'll be cold but not out of the norms.  Pipes, pets, plants, yada.

That's all temps.  The kicker a little should be precip.  And there's only one point where precip and temps intersect such that road freezing might be a brief concern - this is early Thursday into the morning.  This is when temps are most likely to be < 32° (although briefly).  A mild storm will be making its way W to E across the region.  This storm will dip down to the SoCal area then over... it's not plowing directly at us from the NW, and will have limited moisture.  Nevertheless, whatever falls could briefly cause icy spots (esp. bridges, etc. - you know the drill).  Morning rush might be, but won't necessarily be, tricky.  

At first, the air in mid-levels will be warm, so if rain doesn't fall, the most likely thing would be sleet - and again, light... this isn't a coating or anything.  The precip will get strongest as the day gets on, so temps around here should be enough that rain is the most likely - or rain mixed with sleet and even snowflakes.  Right now there is very little chance of snow accumulation - the storm is weak and temps shouldn't be favorable.  However, later in the day the cold air will displace the warm at most atmospheric levels, and this is where snow might be heavier.  Again, at most a dusting but probably not (N and W moreso).  This low might actually make the weater E and SE of us a little worse later Thurs as it picks up more Gulf moisture and could put slick patches on roads between here and the coast.  But again, nothing of major concern right now.

Models don't agree very well right now though, so it could get a little colder and wetter (or vice-versa).  The forecast above is the "safest" and most likely.  However, yes this could change.  I would expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued for somewhere in our region (diff. between that and Winter Storm Warning - another time, if you can't remember, but the former is less acute).  As always, these things are iffy as to isobar temp lines and precip amounts.  But this is what I'm going with right now.  Of course if this changes, I'll be back.  In no case do I see any major widespread region-wide problems with weather Thursday.  

All of the precip should be done by Thurs. night and the rest is just cold for 3 more days.  Again, nothing we haven't seen a lot.

tl;dr:  Thursday dawns with cold blast; small storm intersects and will drop light rain, maybe some sleet, and snow around the multiple county region.  Temps get past freezing and eventually rain wins out (if much at all).  Precip gone by later in the evening.

Friday widespread sunrise freeze.  Temps hit > freezing about mid-morning, then just cold, about 40°, either side.
Saturday rinse and repeat, add about 3-5 degrees to Friday forecast.
Sunday back into the high 50's and it's over.

I will be back if models change, especially for the worse.  In any event precip will be light, scattered, and maybe 12 hours off/on at most.  G'night.

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HornOnTheBayou

HornOnTheBayou 8931

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20 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Alright, here's the update:

Next 2 days unseasonably warm and clear.  Except for the %^&*()@)(* cedar pollen, really nice.  Enjoy 'em.

So the forecast deteriorates early Thursday a.m.  Somewhere around 3-4 a.m. a cold front currently in southern Canada will have made its way into the area.  This is a dandy of continental cold, typical for January.  The air will moderate, again as usual, as it makes its way down the continent.  By the time it hits Austin, it should be pretty salty, but Thursday should generally be above freezing in ATX, and the ground warm, esp. after the preceding 2 days near 80°.  This cold will last for about 4 days, but each day getting slightly warmer.  Thursday should be very chilly, temps in the low 40's south and east ATX, and down into the 30's the farther W/N you go.  We shouldn't generally be in an all-day freezing area, but spots around the region might not get much above 32°, again esp. N and W.  I'm thinking mid-upper 30's for most of us.  Again - above freezing.  Each day from Thurs. to Sunday, temps will tick up 5ish degrees for highs (Fri. low 40's, Sat. mid-upper 40's to 50ish, Sun. 50's).  There will be 4 overnights with clearly freezing temps area-wide... mid-to upper 20's for TravWilHaysCo, warmer nearer downtown.  But these freezes will end by mid-morning each day.  So yeah, it'll be cold but not out of the norms.  Pipes, pets, plants, yada.

That's all temps.  The kicker a little should be precip.  And there's only one point where precip and temps intersect such that road freezing might be a brief concern - this is early Thursday into the morning.  This is when temps are most likely to be < 32° (although briefly).  A mild storm will be making its way W to E across the region.  This storm will dip down to the SoCal area then over... it's not plowing directly at us from the NW, and will have limited moisture.  Nevertheless, whatever falls could briefly cause icy spots (esp. bridges, etc. - you know the drill).  Morning rush might be, but won't necessarily be, tricky.  

At first, the air in mid-levels will be warm, so if rain doesn't fall, the most likely thing would be sleet - and again, light... this isn't a coating or anything.  The precip will get strongest as the day gets on, so temps around here should be enough that rain is the most likely - or rain mixed with sleet and even snowflakes.  Right now there is very little chance of snow accumulation - the storm is weak and temps shouldn't be favorable.  However, later in the day the cold air will displace the warm at most atmospheric levels, and this is where snow might be heavier.  Again, at most a dusting but probably not (N and W moreso).  This low might actually make the weater E and SE of us a little worse later Thurs as it picks up more Gulf moisture and could put slick patches on roads between here and the coast.  But again, nothing of major concern right now.

Models don't agree very well right now though, so it could get a little colder and wetter (or vice-versa).  The forecast above is the "safest" and most likely.  However, yes this could change.  I would expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued for somewhere in our region (diff. between that and Winter Storm Warning - another time, if you can't remember, but the former is less acute).  As always, these things are iffy as to isobar temp lines and precip amounts.  But this is what I'm going with right now.  Of course if this changes, I'll be back.  In no case do I see any major widespread region-wide problems with weather Thursday.  

All of the precip should be done by Thurs. night and the rest is just cold for 3 more days.  Again, nothing we haven't seen a lot.

tl;dr:  Thursday dawns with cold blast; small storm intersects and will drop light rain, maybe some sleet, and snow around the multiple county region.  Temps get past freezing and eventually rain wins out (if much at all).  Precip gone by later in the evening.

Friday widespread sunrise freeze.  Temps hit > freezing about mid-morning, then just cold, about 40°, either side.
Saturday rinse and repeat, add about 3-5 degrees to Friday forecast.
Sunday back into the high 50's and it's over.

I will be back if models change, especially for the worse.  In any event precip will be light, scattered, and maybe 12 hours off/on at most.  G'night.

Goddammit phd, I don't need the encyclopedia. I just need to know if my kids will go to school Thursday. 

Actually, thanks for the details. We really appreciate it. 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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11 hours ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

Goddammit phd, I don't need the encyclopedia. I just need to know if my kids will go to school Thursday. 

Actually, thanks for the details. We really appreciate it. 

Holy shit, that guy writes more than Frankie talks!  

No real update to the update today... possibly a trend towards cold being slightly colder through the stretch (i.e. doesn't warm up as much), and less precip chance around here.  I really don't think Thursday will be much of an ice/driving/etc. event.  Back if any sigfin.. er, sigcifi.. er, big changes.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105151

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Also, the local news is interesting to watch on this potential upcoming round of rather routine winter-ish weather.  It amounts to "look, we know you all may be shitting your pants thinking this is Snowpocalypse II, Electric Boogaloo, but relax.....it's just a bit of precip with temps just around freezing for a few hours.  The world isn't going to end."

PTSD is real.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Posted (edited)

The longer those models hold up, the more likely. But I'd say right now it's about a 30% chance. But that model is picking up on the increased moisture more south and east in Texas as the system nears the Gulf.

I'm not buying it yet, either. Stress yet...

Watch for them to issue a winter storm warning or winter weather advisory by tomorrow maybe early afternoon. If so, good chance. If not, I don't think it'll happen. Maybe the 2nd of the two...

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Hate

Hate 20108

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David Paul on Channel 11 here in Houston wasn't too concerned about it either.  A weather forum I visit suggests that that the air is actually colder than what than what is currently being forecast so there could be more accumulation.  Once again, we'll see.

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gmr548

gmr548 16580

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Posted
Also, the local news is interesting to watch on this potential upcoming round of rather routine winter-ish weather.  It amounts to "look, we know you all may be shitting your pants thinking this is Snowpocalypse II, Electric Boogaloo, but relax.....it's just a bit of precip with temps just around freezing for a few hours.  The world isn't going to end."
PTSD is real.

Which is really saying something given local news’ usual proclivity for sensationalism
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Update (not a lot different):

Winter Storm Watch issued for our counties and south last night.  Could:  1) be canceled entirely; 2) turn into Winter Weather Advisory; or 3) Become Winter Storm Warning.

You don't want that last one.

However, even if this occurs, the amt. of precip will be light and relatively brief.  Again, the entire area of precip should be outta here by Thurs. dark.  Could be icy roads and bridges, but it'll pass.

Other trend is slightly colder Thursday all day - now it looks as if some of the N and W CenTex will struggle to get > freezing (south/east portions will).  If that happens, then could be a 24-28 hour freeze in parts.  I'm still thinking nope, won't happen.  However Hill Country watchout... precip and temps will probably induce it.

This weak storm system will be interesting in that most of the precip will pick up after the system passes by Austin - most of it will be between here and the coast.  Could heighten problems for S and E Texas (but probably not Houston or the coastal cities - too warm).

tl;dr:  Again, these things are roulette wheels in predicting pinpoints of temps and precip.  At this point I'm still with "cold rain, mix of sleet and snow around ATX, tricky driving in spots though Thursday, very cold each morning between Thurs and Sun, but above freezing and NO PRECIP after Thurs night."

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105151

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7 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Oh, and don't rush to the fuckin' grocery store to buy it out.  Got damn that pisses me off.  It's less than 24 hours - more than typical for us this time of year.  Don't be a snowflake (pun intended) dickwad.

Too late.  You gotta wipe your ass with oak leaves now, bitch.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Too late.  You gotta wipe your ass with oak leaves now, bitch.

That guy in Alaska in the other weather thread apparently shits outside in below-freezing weather.  So yeah, man up.
(BTW, I see where he mentioned he was well-compensated for his skills up there.  Seems like they could pay him enough to build an indoor can if he was?).

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105151

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

That guy in Alaska in the other weather thread apparently shits outside in below-freezing weather.  So yeah, man up.
(BTW, I see where he mentioned he was well-compensated for his skills up there.  Seems like they could pay him enough to build an indoor can if he was?).

I hunt.  Have I shat outside in very cold temps?  Yes, yes I have.  Have I been in an, umm, "ate a whole pint jar of jalapenos" emergency situation where I had to use leaves from Rio Grande river cane to wipe?  Yes, yes I have.

Do I much prefer a warm indoor shitter with soft charmin? You bet your chapped ass I do.  In my survival cabin plan, there would definitely be a "warm indoor shitter with real TP" option.  I am not an animal.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted

I thought our rational household was about to be part of the problem.  Wife asked me to watch the munchkin while she goes to grab toilet paper.  I thought, "Don't be that woman who raids the store before a very brief and mild winter storm."  She didn't say a word, opened up the storage cabinet to reveal just two more full rolls of toilet paper for a household of 4 about ready to make green chile pork stew for the weekend.  "Dammit woman, make haste!  Get thee to a papiere!"  

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Orange&White

Orange&White 5528

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Posted

2022-01-19 – State of Texas Situational Awareness Weather Call

  • Wintry mix with travel impacts likely for portions of central Texas Thursday into Friday
  • Bitterly cold wind chill temperatures statewide Thursday, Friday, and Saturday morning
  • Winter Storm Watches for central Texas Thursday morning through Thursday night
  • Ice Accumulation forecast in central Texas. Amounts not expected to be significant, but can create travel impacts.
    • .01 - .10 inches
    • “Worst case” ice amounts are south of Williamson County
    • Not expecting power outage concerns due to ice accumulation
  • Timing for precipitation
    • Precipitation expected during Thursday morning 6 am – 6 pm
  • Temperature
    • Thursday morning – lows in high-20s
    • High on Thursday mid-30s
    • Thursday night into Friday morning – mid-20s
    • Refreeze Friday night into Saturday – patchy ice is possible.
    • Temperatures warm up Saturday (above freezing)
  • Wind Chills
    • Teens Thursday, Friday, and Saturday morning

 

Permian basins/West Texas – already seeing temperatures declines. Will experience below freezing temperatures for approx. 48 hours.

 

TXDOT – Austin Area – preparing to pre-treat today in anticipation of ice accumulation. DriveTexas.org for update on road closures.

 

PUC – Expecting higher demands. Forecasting sufficient generation. Friday morning ERCOT – reserve capacity available.

 

TDEM – sharing winter preparedness information on social. Coordinating messaging with TXDOT and Governor.

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