2021-2022 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[Guest Lobo]

PUC actually doing work this week?   Odd.  Just heard the leadership making plans to do early happy hour today.  

[texasdago 7579]

https://twitter.com/averytomascowx/status/1483884747810037768?s=20

 

Downgraded to an Advisory

Edited January 19, 2022 by texasdago

[Brisketexan 105340]

2 minutes ago, texasdago said:

https://twitter.com/averytomascowx/status/1483884747810037768?s=20

And I'm okay with that.

[phdhorn 6224]

Good news, although these things can change sometimes, but I'm feeling like that's where my head was going, too.

One important update now though:

The front is really been barreling along and looks like it'll arrive in the Austin area shortly after sunset this evening (about 6 hours earlier than forecast a few days ago). So if you're preparing outside, do it sooner rather than later. Temps for free fall and winds will pick up to 30 mph gusts.

Precip isn't really scheduled to fall until late overnight before dawn, and again it looks spotty and light. I'll be back if it changes. Watch your ass on the road tomorrow morning, though. Looks like highs are going to reach the mid to upper 30s tomorrow which is why I think we've been downgraded.

[MissingInAction 25187]

6 hours ago, phdhorn said:

That guy in Alaska in the other weather thread apparently shits outside in below-freezing weather.  So yeah, man up.
(BTW, I see where he mentioned he was well-compensated for his skills up there.  Seems like they could pay him enough to build an indoor can if he was?).

During the snowpocalypse I got tired of hauling toilet snow, I just dug a latrine with my trench tool and shat in front of God and country. 

Some landscaper had a very bad day when it thawed.

[dingleberryswitzer 2724]

The big 3 districts in San Antonio have already cancelled tomorrow.  Seems premature but whatever 

[HornOnTheBayou 8946]

 

[phdhorn 6224]

Yeah, fairly unusual that the bulk of the storm is going to be South of us, and that the more wintry weather is South rather than north:

(Pink is winter storm warning, blue is winter weather advisory)

[Updawg 2286]

So no fruit this year?

[RMac5 1551]

12° In Amarillo with a windchill of  -2°

[Trey3216 15356]

26 minutes ago, RMac5 said:

12° In Amarillo with a windchill of  -2°

75 when I picked the kids up from daycare yesterday afternoon, 32 with an 18 wind chill this morning.   

[MNLonghornFUKM 8821]

You guys got this

#texasstrong

[Trey3216 15356]

12 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

You guys got this

#texasstrong

We will rebuild

 

[Orange&White 5539]

The fact that the weather getting down to 31 degrees with the potential have a light mist, in January, requires this much discussion in a real indictment on what we have become as a society.

[phdhorn 6224]

Aftermath:
A little warmer than forecast, although temps are not gonna move much today.  Precip should pick up if at all between now and about 3-4 p.m.  Still potential for spotty icing in ATX area, but looks like the systems is even drier than forecast.  Not done yet but almost.  Tomorrow a.m. is gonna be a dick-cracker, probably avg. about 25° around the Austin burbs.  Then more or less cold but no big deal after that.  All in all, not much with this event - up to now.  Shouldn't get worse, tho.

I did get a light dusting here in the Cave, where it always rains (snows, hails, sleets, fire-brimstones, etc.).  Went outside and snapped this pretty pic:

[Guest Lobo]

O&W---I think if you read closer, nobody's really that worried about the weather itself.  We're worried about supply chain and power grid bullshit.  I did most of my proactive shit last night, UT basketball looks like it's headed down again, I watch zero NFL---especially the playoffs, no baseball yet, and Covid-19 flareups have wiped out my oldest's weekend activities.  Not much left to do but be that old guy that sips spiked coffee and says, "Yep, looks like she'll turn cold tomorrow..."  

Edited January 20, 2022 by Lobo

[Brisketexan 105340]

14 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Not much left to do but be that old guy that sips spiked coffee and says, "Yep, looks like she'll turn cold tomorrow..."

You're stealing my retirement plan, you sonofabitch.

[Hate 20145]

The fact that the weather getting down to 31 degrees with the potential have a light mist, in January, requires this much discussion in a real indictment on what we have become as a society.

I think it’s more PTSD from last February. People start freaking out now when they hear there is a cold front on the way. What is happening this week and potentially next week are normal weather events for our part of the world in January. Nothing unusual about this at all.

[texasdago 7579]

32 minutes ago, Lobo said:

O&W---I think if you read closer, nobody's really that worried about the weather itself.  We're worried about supply chain and power grid bullshit.  I did most of my proactive shit last night, UT basketball looks like it's headed down again, I watch zero NFL---especially the playoffs, no baseball yet, and Covid-19 flareups have wiped out my oldest's weekend activities.  Not much left to do but be that old guy that sips spiked coffee and says, "Yep, looks like she'll turn cold tomorrow..."  

Yup... I just care about having to move my succulents and tender plants in the garage and just the fact that I can't do much outside like I want... ride a bike, hike, enjoy the outdoors... thanks to this garbage.

 

As for PTSD, you should have seen Houston for the two years after Harvey any time there was a heavy storm.  I know people who would cry when it rained.  It screwed people up.

Edited January 20, 2022 by texasdago

[Guest Lobo]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You're stealing my retirement plan, you sonofabitch.

Aren't you supposed to be hard at work on a deposition prep or some shit for tomorrow morning?

csb/ One of my very first trips to visit my wife's parents in NW Kansas.  Christmastime and it was just miserably cold.  I grew up in the cold, but this was just depressing bullshit.  No trees, no buildings, just one devastating snow drift after another.  Temps are down well below zero, without the wind chill.  With the wind chill and precip, it's just absolutely fucking shit, probably -30 below real feel.  Barren, bone-chilling bullshit of an existence.  But I'm getting cabin fever so I go outside to shovel the driveway and one of the cousins drives over and we're both all bundled up like the two guys talking in "Fargo"...and he says something like, "Yeah, looks it's gonna turn cold tomorrow."  and he's being serious because apparently this apocalyptic cold wasn't real enough for him but all I can think about is Fargo and I reply, "Yeah, i'm going crazy out there at the lake."  He just looks at me like, "What lake?  There's no lakes within 2 hours of here in any direction."  That was a long fucking winter visit.  As Bert Lancaster once said, "The wind never blows so cold again..."  /csb

[South Austin 52606]

Guys, it’s cold out.

[TexasEd 8077]

1st world problems, this is my first year with a swimming pool so the only thing that I'm a little more concerned about is the exposed pipes and pumps.  They have a freeze protection that starts them at a certain air temp so nothing to do unless power goes out which I don't expect.  Got the Citrus trees in for the last cold front and have not put them back out yet.  They can stay in the garage for a month or more.

I do have a basic (not fully formed) plan to address a week of freezing weather and potential power outages with a space heater tarps and propane but I need to go exchange my propane tanks.  I must be real worried.

[Guest]

28 minutes ago, Hate said:

I think it’s more PTSD from last February. People start freaking out now when they hear there is a cold front on the way. What is happening this week and potentially next week are normal weather events for our part of the world in January. Nothing unusual about this at all.

Yeah, the hysteria around the storm is pretty crazy. It sucked. It shouldn't have happened. Those in charge messed up. But I also think it's a once-in-a-lifetime sort of event. Or at least once every few decades. I'm pushing 40 and never seen anything like that before. Ice? Sure. Snow? Sure. Freezing? Sure. But for five days straight without getting above freezing? Never. 

I figure we're good for at least a decade or two.

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, I think people were calmer during the actual storm than we were after it.  

Still, I've taken the liberty of pre-digging a few holes around my backyard while the ground is still soft in case I have to take a few shits out there in the inevitable event Adler gets my water cut off.  

FYI---when you take a shit inside...you can say, "Taking a Dump", "Dropping a Deuce", or "Pinching a Loaf."

When you defecate outside, not in the woods, but in your own yard...it's called, "Dropping an Adler"  

Edited January 20, 2022 by Lobo

[Texas St. Armadillos 1381]

16 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Yeah, the hysteria around the storm is pretty crazy. It sucked. It shouldn't have happened. Those in charge messed up. But I also think it's a once-in-a-lifetime sort of event. Or at least once every few decades. I'm pushing 40 and never seen anything like that before. Ice? Sure. Snow? Sure. Freezing? Sure. But for five days straight without getting above freezing? Never. 

I figure we're good for at least a decade or two.

You arrogant ass.  You've killed *us*.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Texas St. Armadillos said:

You arrogant ass.  You've killed *us*.

Maaaaaan, if we have to deal with weeks on end of below freezing temps AND weeks on end of 100 degrees plus, I'm out of here.

[Brisketexan 105340]

19 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Yeah, the hysteria around the storm is pretty crazy. It sucked. It shouldn't have happened. Those in charge messed up. But I also think it's a once-in-a-lifetime sort of event. Or at least once every few decades. I'm pushing 40 and never seen anything like that before. Ice? Sure. Snow? Sure. Freezing? Sure. But for five days straight without getting above freezing? Never. 

I figure we're good for at least a decade or two.

Yeah....except the thing where you can never tell.

The 1875 Indianola hurricane fucked those people up.  They even talked about relocating the town.

The 1886 Indianola hurricane made that decision for them.

This winter storm was maybe a 1-in-40 chance of happening in a given year.  But sometimes, the 40-sided die rolls a 1 two rolls in a row.  We know it CAN happen.  We know we are NOT ready for it.  Those two pieces of info, on top of PTSD, are powerful.

Most of us are reasonably rational -- I'm not worried about this particular bout of weather.  But I damned well pay attention to the forecast when they start talking about a freeze more than I used to.

[phdhorn 6224]

10 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Yeah, the hysteria around the storm is pretty crazy. It sucked. It shouldn't have happened. Those in charge messed up. But I also think it's a once-in-a-lifetime sort of event. Or at least once every few decades. I'm pushing 40 and never seen anything like that before. Ice? Sure. Snow? Sure. Freezing? Sure. But for five days straight without getting above freezing? Never. 

I figure we're good for at least a decade or two.

I agree with you here, except that it was nine days < 32° for most of our area.  Officially it was 8 days, 23 hours, and 23 minutes between NWS freeze advisories (Feb. 11-20).

Wife and I talked about this last night.  The perfect storm (pun intended) of what had to happen to produce that weather event are (to me) almost astronomical.  People forget it started midweek with rain, then froze night and day (not predicted) for 4 days, preventing using the roads to buy supplies and deliver gas, etc.  WIth that freeze ice built up for 4-5 days, taking out power lines, all this even before the big storm.  Then the storm hit overnight Sun 16th and dumped 6"-8" of snow on top of the ice, further stressing infrastructure.  The storm brought in a second, even colder front, and temps across the area never got out of the teens in most places until Wed. afternoon (19th) when the thing was finally over.

If anyone wants to review the events, NWS has a pretty good not-too-long summary of that week here:
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/2021ValentineStorm


 

[Guest]

(Below in response to Brisket.)

Yes, I'm well aware. I still think it's highly, highly unlikely. 

I worry much, much more about another 2011 year hitting. I'm already getting anxious that it hasn't rained since...?

Edited January 20, 2022 by FirstTimeCaller

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

The perfect storm (pun intended) of what had to happen to produce that weather event are (to me) almost astronomical.  People forget it started midweek with rain, then froze night and day (not predicted) for 4 days, preventing using the roads to buy supplies and deliver gas, etc.  

I remember heading down south the day after the first freezing rain. My hood had ice everywhere, trees bent over, etc. By the time I hit Far West, there was nothing. 

[Brisketexan 105340]

8 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I remember heading down south the day after the first freezing rain. My hood had ice everywhere, trees bent over, etc. By the time I hit Far West, there was nothing. 

We live in the NW hills area.  I went to pick up a pizza at Mangia off of Braker Sunday late afternoon (we always get a big Mangia pie for Valentine's day).  I drove my 4X4, and stayed off of all elevated roads. I even put two tires on the grass from time to time, because the roads were already icy.  Walking to the Mangia front door, I had to walk carefully because of all the ice.  I got home and told my wife we needed to plan on not leaving the house for a few days, because I had pushed my luck traveling and things were only going to get worse.

Still, I should have thought ahead and parked my truck at the top of the hill on our block, to stage it for an escape.  Once the rest of the precip fell, I couldn't get up the hill for a couple of days, and we were stuck in our house with no power (we could walk places, but not drive).  Learned a lot of lessons last February.

Edited January 20, 2022 by Brisketexan

[Orange&White 5539]

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Yeah, the hysteria around the storm is pretty crazy. It sucked. It shouldn't have happened. Those in charge messed up. But I also think it's a once-in-a-lifetime sort of event. Or at least once every few decades. I'm pushing 40 and never seen anything like that before. Ice? Sure. Snow? Sure. Freezing? Sure. But for five days straight without getting above freezing? Never. 

I figure we're good for at least a decade or two.

And it was literally covering the entire state at the same time. Most storms blow over and hit different regions as it moves across the state. That frees up the need for resources in one area as the storm moves on.

That combination of things (5 straight days of below freezing, with precipitation, and occurring over the entire state at once) will never happen again in any of our lifetimes.

[Brisketexan 105340]

4 minutes ago, Orange&amp;White said:

And it was literally covering the entire state at the same time. Most storms blow over and hit different regions as it moves across the state. That frees up the need for resources in one area as the storm moves on.

That combination of things (5 straight days of below freezing, with precipitation, and occurring over the entire state at once) will never happen again in any of our lifetimes.

you could shut the fuck up about that prediction any time now, mmmkay?

[phdhorn 6224]

6 minutes ago, Orange&amp;White said:

And it was literally covering the entire state at the same time. Most storms blow over and hit different regions as it moves across the state. That frees up the need for resources in one area as the storm moves on.

That combination of things (5 straight days of below freezing, with precipitation, and occurring over the entire state at once) will never happen again in any of our lifetimes.

(from that weather page)

I would imagine it'll be a long, long, long time until we see something like this again:


I mean, uh... wow.

[Brisketexan 105340]

2 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

(from that weather page)

I would imagine it'll be a long, long, long time until we see something like this again:


I mean, uh... wow.

254 counties in the pink......ummmm.....something something the stink.

Edited January 20, 2022 by Brisketexan

[texasdago 7579]

46 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We live in the NW hills area.  I went to pick up a pizza at Mangia off of Braker Sunday late afternoon (we always get a big Mangia pie for Valentine's day).  I drove my 4X4, and stayed off of all elevated roads. I even put two tires on the grass from time to time, because the roads were already icy.  Walking to the Mangia front door, I had to walk carefully because of all the ice.  I got home and told my wife we needed to plan on not leaving the house for a few days, because I had pushed my luck traveling and things were only going to get worse.

Still, I should have thought ahead and parked my truck at the top of the hill on our block, to stage it for an escape.  Once the rest of the precip fell, I couldn't get up the hill for a couple of days, and we were stuck in our house with no power (we could walk places, but not drive).  Learned a lot of lessons last February.

I remember talking to my brother about what was coming... after Harvey, he thinks I worry about everything but I've chilled considerably since moving to Austin.  Anyway, I told him, dude, you live at the bottom of a long ass hill.  You better go buy some food.  He stocked up on a ton of food and then was stuck at the bottom of the hill for a week.  Positive, people were skiing down the hill. Negative, his sister-in-law tried driving down the hill and put her SUV into a tree.  Good times.  

At our house, it was at least seven days below freezing.  The big snow storm was awesome but the rest of it completely sucked.

[Guest Lobo]

12 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

(from that weather page)

I would imagine it'll be a long, long, long time until we see something like this again:


I mean, uh... wow.

Well the first problem with our winter storm warning system in 2021 was that it was monitored by a fucking Apple IIe

Since the roads weren't fit for automobile use, our only recourse was to hit the Oregon Trail.  Unfortunately, I had no groceries with which to trade for Oxen since HEB was closed.  

Edited January 20, 2022 by Lobo

[phdhorn 6224]

Well, at 11 the temp in Austin officially was 34°.   So about a 6 1/2 hour straight freeze.
Damn, did't quite gt to the 216-straight freeze last year.  So close.

[wildcat09 29391]

We in Houston had 3 500-year storms in a 3-year span before a 500-year freezing event just a couple of years later. At some point it's not crazy to think maybe the odds for this shit have changed and nobody has updated the numbers yet.

[miguelito 11312]

Remember to make sure your taun tauns are well fed before heading to HEB.

[Orange&White 5539]

There is pink shit blowing in from the west on the radar. About to hit the TravCo line. 

[South Austin 52606]

49 minutes ago, Orange&amp;White said:

There is pink shit blowing in from the west on the radar. About to hit the TravCo line. 

Cotton candy?

[texasdago 7579]

Man, I don't know how people in Kansas or Minnesota or whatever handle this kind of weather.  I'm having cabin fever.  I normally get outside during the day and take a walk, ride my bike, hike... whatever to break up the monotony but not today.  Definitely hitting the gym at the end of the day to rinse this crap weather off.  If the weather is going to be cold, I better be skiing.

Edited January 20, 2022 by texasdago

[phdhorn 6224]

15 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Cotton candy?

Mostly virga so far so far, drying up before it's the ground. 

However, I do see some light Frozen precip coming in, probably won't do much but might get a little slick on bridges out there. Should be out by dinner time.

Edited January 20, 2022 by phdhorn

[Brisketexan 105340]

9 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Mostly virga so far so far, drying up before it's the ground. 

However, I do see some light Frozen precip coming in, probably won't do much but might get a little slick on bridges out there. Should be out by dinner time.

My religion says I'll get 72 virgas when I die, so I got that going for me, which is nice.

[phdhorn 6224]

11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

My religion says I'll get 72 virgas when I die, so I got that going for me, which is nice.

You don't want the virgas that dry up before they hit the ground, though.

[Brisketexan 105340]

1 minute ago, phdhorn said:

You don't want the virgas that dry up before they hit the ground, though.

But Cardi B ain't no virga......

[Guest Lobo]

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

My religion says I'll get 72 virgas when I die, so I got that going for me, which is nice.

You eat 72 pieces of vergas for breakfast?  

[South Austin 52606]

Well fuck me, I learnt a new word today.  Virga.  I'm going to use it in my next brief.  Should impress the court.

[phdhorn 6224]

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

Well fuck me, I learnt a new word today.  Virga.  I'm going to use it in my next brief.  Should impress the court.

Be sure to include the etymology for the word, which comes from the Latin for "rod" or "streak". Not quite "on the rag" but close.

You should be able to work it into some sexual harassment case or something.