2021-2022 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[Brisketexan 105337]

6 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Well fuck me, I learnt a new word today.  Virga.  I'm going to use it in my next brief.  Should impress the court.

It'll probably end up in the court's opinion: "The Court found South Austin's arguments to be like virga; they initially appeared substantive, but upon closer examination, they evaporated before they hit the ground.  Motion denied.  But tell him to say hi to his mom on behalf of the full panel -- with no judges dissenting."

[Guest]

41 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Man, I don't know how people in Kansas or Minnesota or whatever handle this kind of weather.  I'm having cabin fever.  I normally get outside during the day and take a walk, ride my bike, hike... whatever to break up the monotony but not today.  Definitely hitting the gym at the end of the day to rinse this crap weather off.  If the weather is going to be cold, I better be skiing.

No kidding. Walked outside for about 10 minutes this morning, multiple layers, hat, etc. Still cold. 

I will say during the winter storm when the sun came out even though it was 25 degrees it was really pleasant. But grey with a north wind? Ugh.

[bolverk 29718]

It ain't virga in my 'hood. Light rain is turning to sleet.

[Hate 20145]

3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

It ain't virga in my 'hood. Light rain is turning to sleet.

[dieucla98 2942]

[South Austin 52605]

Maybe I need to change the title of my thread to 2022 Virga Thread.

[mchookem 16386]

sleet or graupel or something coming down, reporting from south Central Market 

[4th_and_18 687]

Graupel virga coldaf wtf coming down in 78744

[utee94 15863]

It's all a result of a terrible mistranslation.  You actually get a 72 Vega.

 

 

[Willfully Horn 8049]

3 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

At some point it's not crazy to think maybe the odds for this shit have changed and nobody has updated the numbers yet.

The COA updated their flood maps. I think what used to be 500 year events are now 100 year events. Also, COA assumed that any developable land had been developed. Which eliminates the need to change the map every few years.

https://www.austintexas.gov/department/flood-risk-and-atlas-14

[Brisketexan 105337]

43 minutes ago, utee94 said:

It's all a result of a terrible mistranslation.  You actually get a 72 Vega.

 

 

If you don't think I could make that f'n cool, you don't realize how mexican I really am.

[Guest Lobo]

NO VALEN LA VIRGA...ESTA MIERDA!

[phdhorn 6224]

32 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

The COA updated their flood maps. I think what used to be 500 year events are now 100 year events. Also, COA assumed that any developable land had been developed. Which eliminates the need to change the map every few years.

https://www.austintexas.gov/department/flood-risk-and-atlas-14

Remember too that the most basic reliable weather records only go back about 150 years, and almost a third of that is sketchy.  Beyond that point, we really don't know much; we either depend on very unscientific descriptions or paleoclimatology (the science of which is only emerging).

Also, "a 500 year flood" doesn't mean a flood "like that" is likely to occur no more than once in 500 years.  It means the chances of say 3 hurricanes being "a 500 year event" are 1 in 500 for any given year.  You can have 3 "500 year events" in the same year.  That's why when I was talking about our February 21 storm I framed it in the context of odds.  In reality, there is absolutely no way to truly say that such and such an event is only likely to happen every n years.  There is no data for that type of prediction.  USGS uses "frequency analysis" (which I'm sure is also the go-to of your local bookie) to determine these odds, based on a number of factors.

Thus, the Feb. 21 storm is not "unlikely to happen for 500 years again" but rather "has a 1 in 500 shot of happening on any given day. (BTW, there was no official "n year storm" calculated for the storm.

Anyway, talking about long-term weather probability, or even climate, is dubious at best, since we only have 150ish years of anything approaching reliable scientific data.  I do think the answers will come from geologic climate scientists - that's the only way besides a time machine to know (also human paleontology helps - that was part of my doctorate).

This is why bookies or your Magic 8 Ball is the most reliable weather/climate predictor going.

 

[irishtexan 11522]

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

It's all a result of a terrible mistranslation.  You actually get a 72 Vega.

 

 

I bet you could trick the fuck out of that car and make a bitchin poon wagon.

[utee94 15863]

20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If you don't think I could make that f'n cool, you don't realize how mexican I really am.

 

Just now, irishtexan said:

I bet you could trick the fuck out of that car and make a bitchin poon wagon.

There are actually some very cool Vegas out there.  I had to search deep into the first page of google images to find one that ugly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Brisketexan 105337]

4 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

I bet you could trick the fuck out of that car and make a bitchin poon wagon.

irish knows what's up.  My people have been making such vehicles look cool since the dawn of internal combustion.

Edited January 20, 2022 by Brisketexan

[txduck87 990]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[atomheartbevo 89799]

6 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Yeah, the hysteria around the storm is pretty crazy. It sucked. It shouldn't have happened. Those in charge messed up. But I also think it's a once-in-a-lifetime sort of event. Or at least once every few decades. I'm pushing 40 and never seen anything like that before. Ice? Sure. Snow? Sure. Freezing? Sure. But for five days straight without getting above freezing? Never. 

I figure we're good for at least a decade or two.

4 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

We in Houston had 3 500-year storms in a 3-year span before a 500-year freezing event just a couple of years later. At some point it's not crazy to think maybe the odds for this shit have changed and nobody has updated the numbers yet.

Every time I mention "once-in-a-lifetime" to my relatives/friends in the Houston area, I'm met with this:

[atomheartbevo 89799]

6 hours ago, Lobo said:

Yeah, I think people were calmer during the actual storm than we were after it.  

That's because as long as it was below freezing, and not too much sun, we had snow and ice that we could melt to flush our toilets.

And as much as I bitch, I know plenty of people who didn't have power (but they had water!) and they were in some primitive-ass conditions.  Thankfully for some of them in the more rural areas, county coroners aren't paid as much as folks think and are always appreciative of a generous offering, and it was easy to slip a few murdered neighbors into the "died from the winter storm" category, no questions asked.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

That's because as long as it was below freezing, and not too much sun, we had snow and ice that we could melt to flush our toilets.

And as much as I bitch, I know plenty of people who didn't have power (but they had water!) and they were in some primitive-ass conditions.  Thankfully for some of them in the more rural areas, county coroners aren't paid as much as folks think and are always appreciative of a generous offering, and it was easy to slip a few murdered neighbors into the "died from the winter storm" category, no questions asked.

[elfenix 34332]

22 minutes ago, txduck87 said:

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

this is pretty advanced posting for a duck

[atomheartbevo 89799]

2 hours ago, texasdago said:

Man, I don't know how people in Kansas or Minnesota or whatever handle this kind of weather.  I'm having cabin fever.  I normally get outside during the day and take a walk, ride my bike, hike... whatever to break up the monotony but not today.  Definitely hitting the gym at the end of the day to rinse this crap weather off.  If the weather is going to be cold, I better be skiing.

I spent a few years up north, in North Dakota, as well as above Amarillo.

At a certain point on the map, the infrastructure/houses are (mostly) built for extremely cold weather.  Everything is buried properly (power, water, etc.), houses are well-insulated, water pipes are mostly located away from exterior walls (and outside faucets can have water shut off from the inside, etc.), and many will have basements (which is a lifesaver).

Everybody also dresses for it - thermal underwear, proper footwear and outerwear, etc.

As a kid, it's not that bad - you can find shit to do.  Up in the northern states (Montana/North Dakota/etc.), once the major freeze hits, it's below freezing for months and so people will make ice rinks at all of the neighborhood parks - like the city will bring in a bulldozer before the first freeze, bulldoze an area flat, and after the big freeze hits, the fire department will bring out pumper trucks and make ice rinks, and so kids are spending a shitload of time outside skating (ice hockey, etc.) plus there's always sledding, snowmobiling, snow forts that last for months, ice fishing on the lakes/rivers, etc.  Schools don't shut down either, and we were walking to school with windchills well below 0.

Occasionally though, a bunch of neighborhood kids would all be told by our parents that we were going to be having a pizza party and extended movie/game night/sleepover at somebody's house, and there'd be a bunch of us kids stuck in a large basement for a chunk of the weekend, and the parents would have some kind of party with alcohol (they were careful about DUIs though, everybody tossed their kids into a fishbowl as soon as they came in the door) and some of the parents would I guess go back home, but it was fun for us - lots of pizza, Atari and Intellivision, and movies on HBO or whatever (VHS wasn't really a thing yet).

As an adult, it can be awesome - ice fishing in huts, which was basically drinking beer and listening to sports, but snow mobile racing, doing all kinds of crazy shit on the lakes/rivers - friends' parents would have homemade ice boats which they would sail up and down the lake or river.

As an adult, it fucking suck if you work outside.  And I remember a fuckton of adults spending their winter hours after work drinking regularly.  A lot of alcoholism.

 

[Guest Lobo]

13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

That's because as long as it was below freezing, and not too much sun, we had snow and ice that we could melt to flush our toilets.

And as much as I bitch, I know plenty of people who didn't have power (but they had water!) and they were in some primitive-ass conditions.  Thankfully for some of them in the more rural areas, county coroners aren't paid as much as folks think and are always appreciative of a generous offering, and it was easy to slip a few murdered neighbors into the "died from the winter storm" category, no questions asked.

How could you possibly know about that?  You seem like a swell guy who maybe saw a thing or two in his previous career...but there's very little chance given your current occupation you would know about that.  Our trucks are very discreet.  

[txduck87 990]

this is pretty advanced posting for a duck

Yeah . Trying to multi quote from tapa and didn’t quite work out. .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Deej 76922]

Just had about 30 minutes of moderate to heavy sleet at my house. The deck is treacherous. 

[Hate 20145]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Occasionally though, a bunch of neighborhood kids would all be told by our parents that we were going to be having a pizza party and extended movie/game night/sleepover at somebody's house, and there'd be a bunch of us kids stuck in a large basement for a chunk of the weekend, and the parents would have some kind of party with alcohol (they were careful about DUIs though, everybody tossed their kids into a fishbowl as soon as they came in the door) and some of the parents would I guess go back home, but it was fun for us - lots of pizza, Atari and Intellivision, and movies on HBO or whatever (VHS wasn't really a thing yet).

 

 

The rest of the parents were having orgies at one of the neighbor's house while y'all were hanging in the basement..but yes, alcohol was involved.

[MontereyMX 869]

21 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

We will rebuild

 

what kinda varmint made that trail?

[Trey3216 15356]

42 minutes ago, MontereyMXmuthafucka said:

what kinda varmint made that trail?

That would be my 1/2 lab 1/2 Aussie that even after walking 4-5 miles every morning with me still has the energy to run and chase squirrels/mail people/trash men/random cars from one side of the yard to the other, all day, non-stop.  

[Trey3216 15356]

And obviously, along the same exact path that somehow manages to grow back every spring, until Hades sets in around 7/4 

[Fudge Nuggets 19224]

16 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

everybody tossed their kids into a fishbowl as soon as they came in the door

I thought it was keys that went into the fishbowl.  You yankees is fucked up.

[atomheartbevo 89799]

19 hours ago, Hate said:

The rest of the parents were having orgies at one of the neighbor's house while y'all were hanging in the basement..but yes, alcohol was involved.

5 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I thought it was keys that went into the fishbowl.  You yankees is fucked up.

Keys.

And they weren't having orgies - they saved the fishbowl parties for the summer, when they didn't have so many clothes on.

 

[Guest]

12 degrees this morning.

38 and sunny. light breeze. remnants of snow on the ground.

Saturday, high of 46.

Sunday, low to mid 50's.

I can handle this shit.

[BabaYaga 15320]

7 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

That would be my 1/2 lab 1/2 Aussie that even after walking 4-5 miles every morning with me still has the energy to run and chase squirrels/mail people/trash men/random cars from one side of the yard to the other, all day, non-stop.  

We had a half rat terrier half Boston that had those trails inside the fence.  That little murderer killed anything that came into the yard.  Birds.  Varmints  Rabbits.  Multiple cats.  Even swiped a bird out of the air once.  Came screaming around the corner and the grackle was late in taking off.  Batted it right out of the air!

He'd patrol the yard like a sentry and even late in his life was never tired or slowed down.

[Trey3216 15356]

2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

We had a half rat terrier half Boston that had those trails inside the fence.  That little murderer killed anything that came into the yard.  Birds.  Varmints  Rabbits.  Multiple cats.  Even swiped a bird out of the air once.  Came screaming around the corner and the grackle was late in taking off.  Batted it right out of the air!

He'd patrol the yard like a sentry and even late in his life was never tired or slowed down.

It's quite amazing.  I'm half tempted to put some sort of pedometer/mileage tracker on her.  I have no doubt in my mind that during the early-mid spring and fall she's pulling 25-30 miles per day patrolling the yard...and most of the time at full tilt.   

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

We had a half rat terrier half Boston that had those trails inside the fence.  That little murderer killed anything that came into the yard.  Birds.  Varmints  Rabbits.  Multiple cats.  Even swiped a bird out of the air once.  Came screaming around the corner and the grackle was late in taking off.  Batted it right out of the air!

He'd patrol the yard like a sentry and even late in his life was never tired or slowed down.

Killing a grackle=

[BabaYaga 15320]

10 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It's quite amazing.  I'm half tempted to put some sort of pedometer/mileage tracker on her.  I have no doubt in my mind that during the early-mid spring and fall she's pulling 25-30 miles per day patrolling the yard...and most of the time at full tilt.   

Our hunters also lease for quail and they have harnesses for the dogs that do just that.  Essentially like a GPS smart watch/collar synced with their phones so they can track time/distance for each dog to ensure they don't get lost or overextended.  Pretty cool.   

[BabaYaga 15320]

3 minutes ago, slorch said:

Killing a grackle=

My Benjamin/Sheridan .177 pellet rifle.  Back in the day - let's just say I did my part!

 

[BabaYaga 15320]

26 minutes ago, slorch said:

12 degrees this morning.

38 and sunny. light breeze. remnants of snow on the ground.

Saturday, high of 46.

Sunday, low to mid 50's.

I can handle this shit.

Messed up my ankle and knee rolling.  Pool is a toasty 40-50 degrees, so standing in the shallow section is money for inflammation and swelling.  

[SimonBolivar 10959]

31 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I have no doubt in my mind that during the early-mid spring and fall she's pulling 25-30 miles per day patrolling the yard...and most of the time at full tilt.   

Well you aren't doing it, with multiple young ones in the pack to boot. 

Edited January 21, 2022 by SimonBolivar

[Felix 607]

I have a few of those trails (boxers) and it always cracks me up when one will go shit in the middle of my 1/2 acre back yard and instead of coming directly back to the porch will beeline directly to the nearest trail and follow it back to the porch even if it goes halfway around the fence line.

[Trey3216 15356]

55 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Well you aren't doing it, with multiple young ones in the pack to boot. 

Well, I’ve been doing 4-5 everyday for about 2 years.   Not so much since the newbie in Nov.    will likely reformulate once the weather warms up and I can justify walking 2 kids and a dog in the sunny 75 degree spring days at 6:00 in the afternoon.  My mornings are turbofucked 

[The Ace of Aces 5194]

It’s 11 out and a guy at Wegmans this afternoon was in shorts and a t-shirt. 
 

Hopefully none of you die due to Texas’ energy fuckupdness 

[utee94 15863]

15 hours ago, The Ace of Aces said:

It’s 11 out and a guy at Wegmans this afternoon was in shorts and a t-shirt. 
 

Hopefully none of you die due to Texas’ energy fuckupdness 

It's currently 48 degrees and sunny.  If anyone dies because of that, they'll have no one to blame but themselves.

[Deej 76922]

On 1/21/2022 at 3:17 PM, slorch said:

Killing a grackle=

Do I have the dog for you...

 

[Guest]

Not that this dog would wear one of those jackets, but if it does, I hope it has kill patches on the sides.

[Deej 76922]

She has a spot on her chest for every grackle killed. 

[Post Oak 20273]

finally getting a half decent rain in Waco.  I cant remember the last time we had something that would actually measure in a rain gauge.

 

[Hpara759 1780]

Amarillo this morning

[phdhorn 6224]

Just noticed this this morning.

Man, this is a COLD map, even for January!

 

But this is kinda how it should work for us... despite a chilly morning, Austin will get into the 60's today as La Niña brings warm air up from the Gulf.  Our high 30's is still only a few dozen miles from the warmer air in the Valley, which will pool up to us today.  Meanwhile, most of the rest of the country is frigid.

See, this is why I live in Austin (and not Florida due to the cray).
FWIW...

[Hate 20145]

Some weather models are “seeing” a possible winter storm next week. It’s a long way out, but several different models show some wintry precipitation in the mix so it can’t be discounted completely. We’ll know more by Tuesday or Wednesday so don’t go buy all of the toilet paper and waters from HEB…but do go to the liquor store because you can away melt snow, but you can’t distill your favorite spirits.