2021-2022 Astros Offseason Thread

[Rockethorn1978 6,077]

My semen never melts down so I have high hopes for this semen too.

[Gourmand 7,774]

I said this on the other thread but Goldstein says the Astros don’t see Semien as a SS any longer.  He’s not a Correa replacement.  

Unless they somehow bring Correa back, which is unlikely, it's Jeremy Pena's job next season. I don't see them spending money on a FA SS with a 24 year-old prospect under team control for the next six years waiting in the wings. They will spend the money elsewhere.

[LCHorn 2,620]

Just now, Gourmand said:

59 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I said this on the other thread but Goldstein says the Astros don’t see Semien as a SS any longer.  He’s not a Correa replacement.  

Unless they somehow bring Correa back, which is unlikely, it's Jeremy Pena's job next season. I don't see them spending money on a FA SS with a 24 year-old prospect under team control for the next six years waiting in the wings. They will spend the money elsewhere.

Not only that, it’s Click’s MO-give the young guys a chance to prove themselves, even on a contender.  
 

I think the Rays of yore were also very into platoons, and we’ve not seen much of that on this Astros team.  I think that means they may be happy to roll with what they got at CF.  
 

Putting two and two together might mean they go heavy on free agent starting pitching.  Hard to know what the post Storm template there might be besides arm strength (which isn’t Stroman’s forte).   

[LCHorn 2,620]

Ach, post-Strom 

[UTPhil2006 3,807]

12 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

throw all the moneys at robbie ray and trade for chris bassitt.

This is the correct answer on pitching.  Brantley ain't going anywhere, and I don't think Semien is the answer for what he's going to get paid.  Raley can come back on the cheap, Graveman will want too much.  Sign a couple of RP and a solid bat.  Pena and Lee aren't going to be ready this year to majorly contribute.

[kevwun 15,788]

I am ok with Graveman moving on because this year may be an outlier in his career.  He was very meh before this season and the Astros are his 4th team.

[Scraps 13,561]

Someone will pay Graveman to go be their closer.  It ain't Houston 

[UTPhil2006 3,807]

7 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Someone will pay Graveman to go be their closer.  It ain't Houston 

Especially with Press' 8 million dollar salary vesting with his IP this past year.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

2 hours ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Guys get over paid all the time and once Correa gets paid his and he sets the market I wouldn’t be shocked to see guys that should only get 15 a year end up getting 25-30 a year. Especially if Correa gets something crazy stupid like 35-40 a year.

Well, we didn't beat Toronto for Springer at $25MM / year so I doubt we're going to spend $30MM on Marte.

Someone might overpay for Marte to the tune of $30MM but I doubt it.  And if someone does, it sure as hell won't be Click.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

35 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I am ok with Graveman moving on because this year may be an outlier in his career.  He was very meh before this season and the Astros are his 4th team.

 

32 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Someone will pay Graveman to go be their closer.  It ain't Houston 

Fuck Graveman.

[TexArcher 37,774]

$30 million for Marte is lunacy, but yeah, he might get it.

[Honeysucklerose 989]

[Gut Wagon 8,069]

I'm old enough to recall when $30M for a TEAM would have been lunacy. (Yeah, get off my lawn.) Even in today's market, that amount for a single player still is staggering to me. 
 

I sure wouldn't mind adding Chris Taylor. He's 31, but the dude is a gamer and would do serious damage in MMP. Great utility man and mashes the ball. 
 

 

 

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

2 hours ago, LCHorn said:

I said this on the other thread but Goldstein says the Astros don’t see Semien as a SS any longer.  He’s not a Correa replacement.  

Didn’t see or hear that. Thanks. Too bad. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

24 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Well, we didn't beat Toronto for Springer at $25MM / year so I doubt we're going to spend $30MM on Marte.

Someone might overpay for Marte to the tune of $30MM but I doubt it.  And if someone does, it sure as hell won't be Click.

It was my point that Springer was not too expensive post 2021 with JV and Greinke coming off the books. We could have sucked it up and paid the tax for 1 year (or not signed Brantley and ODO- same difference. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

It was my point that Springer was not too expensive post 2021 with JV and Greinke coming off the books. We could have sucked it up and paid the tax for 1 year (or not signed Brantley and ODO- same difference. 

But yeah- @Fudge Nuggetsis right- we aren’t doing any of those things. As much as I would kill to see them done. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

25 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

$30 million for Marte is lunacy, but yeah, he might get it.

Spends on how long the deal is. Would you give him 80 million over 5 years so that you are paying him 18 per?  He’s not going to be any good on the back end of that deal so what’s the difference between 2/60, 3/85 or 5/80 with him being deadweight in 3 years?  

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

My big concern is that we sign Trevor story, a mid tier Odo type starter and a few Jags as relievers and call it a day. That would suck. And end the era of serious WS contender and bring us into parity with a team like the Brewers or Philly or Boston- look like a playoff team if things go right- not a slam dunk if they don’t, not likely to compete for anything of serious value. 

[Gourmand 7,774]

 

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

9 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

 

If we get 30% of the production from him last year that we got this year from correa that would be good (he’s be 2 war player which is worthy of being an MLB regular). We’d also be way less potent. 

[TonyTexas 10,513]

Here’s a good article explaining the qualifying offer process and scenarios 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-stove-breaking-down-qualifying-offer-candidates-including-clayton-kershaw-and-justin-verlander/

 

[Ojo Rojo 1,965]

15 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Who do you like?  Scherzer doesn’t want to come here. I think the JV things has run it’s course. Stroman seems pretty meh to me. Thor is always hurt. I don’t see anyone starting pitching I want to pay lots of money and push one of our guys out of the rotation for. I see a lot of bats I’d love to pay big money for however. 

Robbie Ray

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

2 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

Robbie Ray

Yeah. He's either found another level or he had a career year in a walk year and some team is going to have serious buyers remorse.  What kind of contract would you guess it will take to get him done?

[WBT 20,572]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

And end the era of serious WS contender and bring us into parity with a team like the Brewers or Philly or Boston- look like a playoff team if things go right- not a slam dunk if they don’t, not likely to compete for anything of serious value. 

Or 2019 Washington or 2021 Atlanta?  If you make the tournament you have a 1/8 shot, within margin of error anyway.  Not that I'm not in favor of pushing for excellence.  I wanted us to keep the foot on the gas til the end in 2019 and try to win 110.  But extra wins beyond what's needed to win your division don't really make much difference in who wins the WS.

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Would you give him 80 million over 5 years so that you are paying him 18 per?  

Edited November 4, 2021 by WBT

[henrygandorf 29,191]

5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah. He's either found another level or he had a career year in a walk year and some team is going to have serious buyers remorse.  What kind of contract would you guess it will take to get him done?

he just turned 30.  he will be expensive.  i would also imagine 6-7 years.

[Ojo Rojo 1,965]

10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah. He's either found another level or he had a career year in a walk year and some team is going to have serious buyers remorse.  What kind of contract would you guess it will take to get him done?

I don't know, but he's the best starting FA pitcher available right now who's not old as hell.  You are going to have to pay him top-2 in the rotation starting pitcher money.  So probably $18-20M AAV.  Minimum 5 years, I would think.

[Scraps 13,561]

We will see a lot of Ray. He will be over with Gandorf in LA

[henrygandorf 29,191]

8 minutes ago, Scraps said:

We will see a lot of Ray. He will be over with Gandorf in LA

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

45 minutes ago, WBT said:

Or 2019 Washington or 2021 Atlanta?  If you make the tournament you have a 1/8 shot, within margin of error anyway.  Not that I'm not in favor of pushing for excellence.  I wanted us to keep the foot on the gas til the end in 2019 and try to win 110.  But extra wins beyond what's needed to win your division don't really make much difference in who wins the WS.

Ha. I meant to type 90 million b/c that's what I'd said- does he get 3/90?  
your point is well taken that the best team doesn't always win the world series. I would say Washington was an outlier in that they were so fucking good at roster spots 1-7 that it wasn't a super big shock they won- over 162 games that astros team would kick the shit out of them because they were deeper and had more quality toward the bottom of the roster.  But a 1-2 of Scherzer and Stausburg takes a back seat to nobody, and Soto, Rendon and a couple of their other cocksuckers on offense were as good as anything we had at the top of our lineup, making things even more even in a 4 out of 7 than just random baseball fluke.

And this year we lost LMJ. That hurt, a lot.  They lost Charlie which left them with 2 good starters. We lost lance which left us with 0 that were reliable.  

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

41 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

I don't know, but he's the best starting FA pitcher available right now who's not old as hell.  You are going to have to pay him top-2 in the rotation starting pitcher money.  So probably $18-20M AAV.  Minimum 5 years, I would think.

I'd do 5/100 in a heart beat for him. I'm afraid he goes 6/175 which would pucker my sphincter in a way 5/150 for Semien or 8/200 for Bryant 12/330 for correa wouldn't.  

[henrygandorf 29,191]

i was gonna say 6-180 or 7-200 so i think we're in the vicinity.

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

5 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i was gonna say 6-180 or 7-200 so i think we're in the vicinity.

Yeah- I think this is probably right.  I really wouldn't like 6/180.  7/180?  6/160?  Yeah, I don't think I'd blink on those.  Which is why that probably wouldn't be the winning bid. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

1 hour ago, Gourmand said:

 

That dude was laying tread on the inside the park HR.

[Issiecol 2]

16 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Holy shot I didn’t realize Ray was so good last year. The scary thing is he only had one other season in his career that I’d describe as really really good and the other ones have been pretty meh. If he’s tuned a corner (at 30 he could have) then yeah- load him up. That’s just not a huge track record to me though. I’d be scared. 

For what it's worth, Robbie Ray's wife is best friends with Emily Greinke and it seems like ZG has warmed to playing for Houston over the past year. If Click can get Ray here, he might be able to get a deal on Zack too.

[kevwun 15,788]

I don't think we'd be interested in Greinke.  He needs to start thinking about retiring.

[Gut Wagon 8,069]

5 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I don't think we'd be interested in Greinke.  He needs to start thinking about retiring.

Make him an offer that only includes emergency spot starts in the postseason. When he's still pitched better than most of what else we've trotted out there lately. 
 

Oh, and pinch hitting. 

Edited November 4, 2021 by Gut Wagon

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

8 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I don't think we'd be interested in Greinke.  He needs to start thinking about retiring.

In the past he said he wanted to quit baseball and cut grass in his free time.  I think he now has the resources to pull it off.

[UDontKnow 10,445]

6 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

In the past he said he wanted to quit baseball and cut grass in his free time.  I think he now has the resources to pull it off.

[mbtex 683]

I'm surprised Greinke does not learn to throw an knuckle ball and continue pitching like Charlie Hough.

[Texas St. Armadillos 1,381]

25 minutes ago, Issiecol said:

For what it's worth, Robbie Ray's wife is best friends with Emily Greinke and it seems like ZG has warmed to playing for Houston over the past year. If Click can get Ray here, he might be able to get a deal on Zack too.

As Pitching Coach?  Not sure his teaching delivery will translate.

[kevwun 15,788]

Ha, that would be hilarious.  I can see Greinke walk to the mound, tell someone to pitch better and then walk back to the dugout.

[HtownHorn 14,682]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

If we get 30% of the production from him last year that we got this year from correa that would be good (he’s be 2 war player which is worthy of being an MLB regular). We’d also be way less potent. 

Depends on what improvements we get out of Bregman to offset the loss of Correa, and the overall increase in production out of the CF over the 370 PAs given to Straw.

Of course, also baked in will be the likely declines of Brantley and Gurriel.

[Scraps 13,561]

Greinke can go join Ray with the Angels

[TonyTexas 10,513]

What’s everyone’s take on how the upcoming CBA negotiations and subsequent possible lockout will affect the timing of off-season transactions? I know nothing can happen during a lockout but does anything happen between now and December 1 when the CBA expires? 

Edited November 4, 2021 by TonyTexas

[David Dennison 18,860]

3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It was my point that Springer was not too expensive post 2021 with JV and Greinke coming off the books. We could have sucked it up and paid the tax for 1 year (or not signed Brantley and ODO- same difference. 

We offered him five years.

That's all we're going to do for anyone.

[tx 3 putt 76,958]

6 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

What’s everyone’s take on how the upcoming CBA negotiations and subsequent possible lockout affect the off-season transactions? I know nothing can happen during a lockout but does anything happen between now and December 1 when the CBA expires? 

there’s going to be lockout

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

21 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Depends on what improvements we get out of Bregman to offset the loss of Correa, and the overall increase in production out of the CF over the 370 PAs given to Straw.

Of course, also baked in will be the likely declines of Brantley and Gurriel.

Yep. That’s not to say the money can’t be repurposed to be more effective. It’s just to say that you absolutely MUST repurpose it elsewhere to be more effective or you WILL take a big step back. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

8 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

We offered him five years.

That's all we're going to do for anyone.

I know. Presumably 5/150 would have gotten it done for George. We didn’t want to do that. It was a choice. We easily could have afforded it with what’s coming off the books this year and next. 

[Scraps 13,561]

6 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

What’s everyone’s take on how the upcoming CBA negotiations and subsequent possible lockout affect the off-season transactions? I know nothing can happen during a lockout but does anything happen between now and December 1 when the CBA expires? 

At the least the qualifying offers will have to be accepted/rejected.  Out of who I see that is eligible and likely being given one according to most sites, I would think there are really only about 2-3 guys who are even going to entertain taking it.  

Beyond that probably not much

[Scraps 13,561]

Also to your part about "nothing can happen during a lockout".....that is incorrect, but yeah nothing probably would happen

It's important to note that even during a work stoppage, trades and signings and all that can happen. Jack McDowell was traded and Tony Gwynn signed a new contract extension during the 1994-95 work stoppage, for example. Now, just because transactions can happen doesn't mean they will.