2021-2022 Astros Offseason Thread

[tx 3 putt 76371]

[kevwun 15647]

Verlander is actually a year older than Scherzer.  And that year is worth 70 million dollars.

Edited November 30, 2021 by kevwun

[huge 3788]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Our #1 priority was a TOR starter and we got Verlander for half of what the stupid fucking Mets are paying an old and busted Max Scherzer. 

There are some real albatross contracts being given out right now. 

Scherzer is a lot of things but busted isn't one of them.  Eeeeesh

[The Dog 43803]

Just now, huge said:

Scherzer is a lot of things but busted isn't one of them.  Eeeeesh

Yeah he's not but he's starting to have issues. It was a bit of hyperbole. The Mets overpaid.

[The Dog 43803]

3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Seriously, what are the Rangers doing? These moves aren't going to make them a contender - don't they need some pitching at some point? Where's the money coming from to get that, or do they have some avalanche of prospects that are ready to move up and dominate?

[Starfleet Command 441]

10 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Yeah, hopefully that means players and owners aren't far apart.

I think at a minimum the luxury tax threshold is getting a big bump.

[huge 3788]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Yeah he's not but he's starting to have issues. It was a bit of hyperbole. The Mets overpaid.

I assume you saw his second half numbers last year?  Maybe the Mets overpaid but he is as much of a sure thing as there is in the league at this point. 

[Starfleet Command 441]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Seriously, what are the Rangers doing? These moves aren't going to make them a contender - don't they need some pitching at some point? Where's the money coming from to get that, or do they have some avalanche of prospects that are ready to move up and dominate?

They are allegedly pursuing Kershaw.  There's a good chance Dunning turns into an above average SP and they have a prospect in Winn who performed well in AA last season.  They are still a ways off from hitting the 40 WAR threshold but if the league expands the playoffs then maybe it doesn't matter - getting to 80 wins is good enough.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Starfleet Command

[Starfleet Command 441]

7 minutes ago, huge said:

Scherzer is a lot of things but busted isn't one of them.  Eeeeesh

lol especially when he references a 37 year old dude coming off TJ surgery in the same sentence.  

[The Dog 43803]

6 minutes ago, Starfleet Command said:

lol especially when he references a 37 year old dude coming off TJ surgery in the same sentence.  

LOL yeah wasn't my best take. 

 

[Chuckie Finster 22600]

6 minutes ago, huge said:

I assume you saw his second half numbers last year?  Maybe the Mets overpaid but he is as much of a sure thing as there is in the league at this point. 

He's Verlander preseason 2020.  Let's see what happens next.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

32 minutes ago, Starfleet Command said:

I don't like this shibboleth that "smart" teams don't make big deals.  Is Friedman an idiot for making the Betts deal?  I would take him any day of the week over Click.  The market is different for elite players and it's stupid to totally eliminate that avenue to improve your team when resources are available.  

Yeah- I don’t get the middle class signings for big money for guys that aren’t going to move your championship needle much. It’s a dumb trend. Agree 100% with you. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

He's Verlander preseason 2020.  Let's see what happens next.

Or- he’s basically Bauer’s 2 year deal from last year. Wonder how rough he likes his sex? 

[Chuckie Finster 22600]

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

Or- he’s basically Bauer’s 2 year deal from last year. Wonder how rough he likes his sex? 

I was referring to an aging pitcher who is never injured and still seemingly at the top of his game, but yeah let's get weird too.

[Starfleet Command 441]

I wish the Astros would have signed Gausman over the deal they made with JV, although there's a sporting chance JV performs at a very high level for one season (and thus exercises his option to get a new deal).  I'm glad the Mariners settled on Ray over the other options as he seems the clearest regression candidate of the big SP FAs this off-season.  

 

It will be intersting to see if the Rangers land Kershaw and at what price.  Gausman, Kershaw, and Rodon are the three guys I saw as the closest alternatives to JV.

[henrygandorf 29175]

51 minutes ago, Starfleet Command said:

I don't like this shibboleth that "smart" teams don't make big deals.  Is Friedman an idiot for making the Betts deal?  I would take him any day of the week over Click.

eh, the dodgers certainly have their share of issues. payroll will be huge and their team has taken a big step back so far. 

[Gourmand 7774]

10 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I was high and immediately said he’d make 4 in his career. Bet he still does. Said that we should have offered 3 something for 13 or 14 years (age 40 season). Keep in mind he’s already made like 25 million during the arbitration so I’ve only got to get to $375 more to be correct. If he gets a 10/350 he still has a slight chance at getting to 500 million. Beltran made what 75 or 80 million from 37 years old on?  

I don't remember any of those hot takes but then again I also barely remember my own birthday so.....The one thing I do remember from early Correa (before he was derided by many Astros fans as an unreasonable injury risk) was his reluctance to sign any long-term extensions like the Astros inked with Altuve, Bregman, and even Jon Singleton because he always believed in himself and was willing to bet on himself to get to free agency. That in my mind was always something that mattered to him, the big free agency payday AND the courtship of big market teams vs the team that drafted and developed him. 

[henrygandorf 29175]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

a guy like Baez getting his big pay day when everyone seemed to think he’d end up with a 1 year type deal

lol who thought that?

i liked baez for us and said so here, though i didn’t think we’d actually do it, and he’s not really an “astros” type of hitter. figured he’d get 5-6 years around $20mm per which would be in our range, where correa would not. 

[Mez2 4021]

43 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Seriously, what are the Rangers doing? These moves aren't going to make them a contender - don't they need some pitching at some point? Where's the money coming from to get that, or do they have some avalanche of prospects that are ready to move up and dominate?

they're gonna let the fans pitch with purchase of game ticket

[Js1 85109]

45 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Seriously, what are the Rangers doing? These moves aren't going to make them a contender - don't they need some pitching at some point? Where's the money coming from to get that, or do they have some avalanche of prospects that are ready to move up and dominate?

Trying to buy their way out of mediocrity.  Or at least buy a bunch more offense and make the product more appealing to casual fans

[henrygandorf 29175]

5 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

I don't remember any of those hot takes but then again I also barely remember my own birthday so.....The one thing I do remember from early Correa (before he was derided by many Astros fans as an unreasonable injury risk) was his reluctance to sign any long-term extensions like the Astros inked with Altuve, Bregman, and even Jon Singleton because he always believed in himself and was willing to bet on himself to get to free agency. That in my mind was always something that mattered to him, the big free agency payday AND the courtship of big market teams vs the team that drafted and developed him. 

we’ll never know, but i always felt correa would get himself to free agency, whether he intended to re-sign or not. 

[henrygandorf 29175]

Just now, Js1 said:

Trying to buy their way out of mediocrity.  Or at least buy a bunch more offense and make the product more appealing to casual fans

yeah, their strategy is pretty obvious. much like the yankees over the past decade, they’ll throw money at the problem. but unlike the 95-2010 yankees, they don’t have a solid core of homegrown guys to lead them. 

[TonyTexas 10482]

8 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

yeah, their strategy is pretty obvious. much like the yankees over the past decade, they’ll throw money at the problem. but unlike the 95-2010 yankees, they don’t have a solid core of homegrown guys to lead them. 

Or the financial resources to maintain that strategy. If either Semien or Seager end up being busts, they are fucked. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

47 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I was referring to an aging pitcher who is never injured and still seemingly at the top of his game, but yeah let's get weird too.

I know. 
I was referring to a cy young caliber pitcher willing to work on a short deal which is also interesting. 
Bauers deal (from his POV) was always supposed to be 2/85 with him opting out, the third year was so much less it was just to cover his backside in case of injury or, you know, life. Scherzer bc of age had to take the short ish deal/ but both those illustrate that a short term deal for a top 10 type pitcher or hitter is worth over 40 million plus to a team. 

Edited November 30, 2021 by Wulaw Horn

[Gourmand 7774]

15 hours ago, Ojo Rojo said:

Fuck that.  WE need to sign Story.

No we don't. I do not trust Rockies FA players pushing 30 to be successful big money signings. He's no Matt Holliday and I think the Astros might regret paying him a fat contract.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

27 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

I don't remember any of those hot takes but then again I also barely remember my own birthday so.....The one thing I do remember from early Correa (before he was derided by many Astros fans as an unreasonable injury risk) was his reluctance to sign any long-term extensions like the Astros inked with Altuve, Bregman, and even Jon Singleton because he always believed in himself and was willing to bet on himself to get to free agency. That in my mind was always something that mattered to him, the big free agency payday AND the courtship of big market teams vs the team that drafted and developed him. 

Maybe so.  It might have always been going to be like that. 
but the Astros never offered  real, legitimate, big money type deal securing him and 3 generations for life. It was always too stingy. 
honestly, I’m going to go ahead and put on my conspiracy hat and say it is a bit racially tinged how teams approach some of these deals.  Not that they are racist but that they think poor foreigners can be low balled compared to their American counterparts. 

Edited November 30, 2021 by Wulaw Horn

[TonyTexas 10482]

21 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

Dp 

Edited November 30, 2021 by TonyTexas

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

25 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

lol who thought that?

i liked baez for us and said so here, though i didn’t think we’d actually do it, and he’s not really an “astros” type of hitter. figured he’d get 5-6 years around $20mm per which would be in our range, where correa would not. 

Poor word choice on my part. I read 3 or 4 articles with a prediction of Baez on a pillow contract bc his performance hasn’t been as historically strong as some of the others and it was a bad time for him to be on the market and he might do a 1 year deal for high AAV or end up in a Semien type situation from last year. 

[IDIOTsavant 8445]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Maybe so.  It might have always been going to be like that. 
but the Astros never offered  real, legitimate, big money type deal securing him and 3 generations for life. It was always too stingy. 
honestly, I’m going to go ahead and put on my conspiracy hat and say it is a bit racially tinged how teams approach some of these deals.  Not that they are racist but that they think poor foreigners can be low balled compared to their American counterparts. 

xenophobic?

[Ojo Rojo 1901]

12 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

No we don't. I do not trust Rockies FA players pushing 30 to be successful big money signings. He's no Matt Holliday and I think the Astros might regret paying him a fat contract.

 

I don't think being a Rocky automatically means you are 25% less of a player than your stats suggest, but Story's numbers actually do suggest that might be the case with him.  My main point is that I'd rather not have a hole in the lineup or the defense where Correa used to be; I don't want to win 7 fewer games without Correa.  We don't necessarily need a 6.2 WAR guy, but I think we do need a 2.5 WAR guy to be a playoff lock.  That's what I want.

Here's Story's career BA:

Home .303

Away .241

[The Earl of Texas 3131]

Just now, Ojo Rojo said:

Here's Story's career BA:

Home .303

Away .241

Eek.

[Ojo Rojo 1901]

16 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Maybe so.  It might have always been going to be like that. 
but the Astros never offered  real, legitimate, big money type deal securing him and 3 generations for life. It was always too stingy. 
honestly, I’m going to go ahead and put on my conspiracy hat and say it is a bit racially tinged how teams approach some of these deals.  Not that they are racist but that they think poor foreigners can be low balled compared to their American counterparts. 

No way.  I think the reluctance on the Astros part was purely due to the injury concerns, which were legitimate.  Still are, tbh.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

12 minutes ago, IDIOTsavant said:

xenophobic?

Not really afraid- more looking to take advantage maybe?  

[Ojo Rojo 1901]

3 minutes ago, The Earl of Texas said:

Eek.

Yeah, but I mean, most players hit better at home than away.  So I don't know how much of that is Coors Field and how much is just home stadium.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

1 minute ago, Ojo Rojo said:

No way.  I think the reluctance on the Astros part was purely due to the injury concerns, which were legitimate.  Still are, tbh.

He didn’t have any injury concerns before the back in 2019. I mean- he’s missed some time with getting hit by the ball and with a bad slide but those were tramatic injuries that happen to anyone and heal and get all better. 
the back is concerning but looks to be in the rear view. 
If he ever decides to start pulling the ball he will hit 40 or 50 home runs. 

[IDIOTsavant 8445]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not really afraid- more looking to take advantage maybe?  

I was lumping that under prejudice in my mind, i.e. expecting them to settle for less.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

5 minutes ago, IDIOTsavant said:

I was lumping that under prejudice in my mind, i.e. expecting them to settle for less.

Yeah- I think that’s going on. And if you see the guys that take those deals outside of Longoria I feel like most of them have been foreigners. Maybe those are the only guys getting offered those deals?  Maybe those guys are more risk averse?  Maybe those guys can’t comprehend the difference between 100 million and 300 million?

Guys like Altuve didn’t have much of a signing bonus compared to drafted players so it’s easier to sit tight once you have already cashed a 7 figure bonus check?  
I don’t know what the deal is but seems to me like there is something to it. 

[Murfdogg21 4412]

Murfdogg’s moment of unrealistic optimism of the day: Correa spoke a couple times about knowing the value of not paying income taxes. At this point, the Dodgers and Yankees are likely the only serious bidders…so that gives us a 5-6% advantage tax wise once home/road splits are factored in. 

[The Dog 43803]

28 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

He didn’t have any injury concerns before the back in 2019.

He had some IL stints before that but nothing as major as 2019. I think the Astros are gun shy about offering someone with an injury history like that especially after seeing Springer start the year on the IL for the Blue Jays and experiencing all three of our top starters being effectively out for both the ALCS and WS this year. 

 

[rvm96 1643]

42 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

No we don't. I do not trust Rockies FA players pushing 30 to be successful big money signings. He's no Matt Holliday and I think the Astros might regret paying him a fat contract.

I'm of the opinion that the affect it has on players changing teams and still doing well is super overrated

[texashorne 1177]

Why cant they find a deal where the $$ tapers off but Correa gets the years? 32/year for the first 5 years, 20 million after that. Or something similar.  

 

[Texas St. Armadillos 1381]

49 minutes ago, The Dog said:

He had some IL stints before that but nothing as major as 2019. I think the Astros are gun shy about offering someone with an injury history like that especially after seeing Springer start the year on the IL for the Blue Jays and experiencing all three of our top starters being effectively out for both the ALCS and WS this year. 

 

And nobody was even available to play in the All Star Game!

[Scraps 13542]

Why cant they find a deal where the $$ tapers off but Correa gets the years? 32/year for the first 5 years, 20 million after that. Or something similar.  
 

Cause they don't want Miguel Cabrera, Pujols, etc taking up a roster spot

[Ojo Rojo 1901]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

He didn’t have any injury concerns before the back in 2019. I mean- he’s missed some time with getting hit by the ball and with a bad slide but those were tramatic injuries that happen to anyone and heal and get all better. 
the back is concerning but looks to be in the rear view. 
If he ever decides to start pulling the ball he will hit 40 or 50 home runs. 

He's got questions about both chronic conditions and being injury prone.  They aren't mutually exclusive.

[Ojo Rojo 1901]

1 hour ago, texashorne said:

Why cant they find a deal where the $$ tapers off but Correa gets the years? 32/year for the first 5 years, 20 million after that. Or something similar.  

 

I wondered the same thing until someone educated me that AAV is what is used for luxury tax purposes, so that doesn't work.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

1 hour ago, texashorne said:

Why cant they find a deal where the $$ tapers off but Correa gets the years? 32/year for the first 5 years, 20 million after that. Or something similar.  

 

Because some other team will offer him the same years where the money doesn’t taper off. 
if you want to do that it’s fine- but it needs to start at 42 or 45 million up front. 
say, 45, 45, 45, 40, 40, 30, 30, 20, 20, 20. That’s be 10 years 335. That’s about right in numbers and probably about right in value where he will be for those years. 135 for the rest of his late 20’s and absolute prime, then 80 for 2 years as a 30 & 31 year old in mate prime- then 30 for a couple years you might still expect fringe all star, then 20 in the hope he can still be an above average regular. Give him an opt out after year 3, 5 & 7. 
that’s a deal I imagine he’d be willing to sign and what it would take. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

41 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

I wondered the same thing until someone educated me that AAV is what is used for luxury tax purposes, so that doesn't work.

That’s true- but it’s not the only concern for owners. Owners also care about finances of the day to day and year to year operations. Most teams aren’t up against the tax so it is kind of irrelevant. Every team has a budget every year. 

[Gourmand 7774]

3 hours ago, Ojo Rojo said:

 

I don't think being a Rocky automatically means you are 25% less of a player than your stats suggest, but Story's numbers actually do suggest that might be the case with him.  My main point is that I'd rather not have a hole in the lineup or the defense where Correa used to be; I don't want to win 7 fewer games without Correa.  We don't necessarily need a 6.2 WAR guy, but I think we do need a 2.5 WAR guy to be a playoff lock.  That's what I want.

Here's Story's career BA:

Home .303

Away .241

More important imo is his career OPS home/away split:

Home: .972

Away:  .752

Edited November 30, 2021 by Gourmand

[Ojo Rojo 1901]

Just now, Gourmand said:

More importantly is his career OPS home/away split:

Home: .972

Away:  .752

Yes, but you still have the problem of trying to split the high altitude effect from the simple playing at home effect.  There's probably a way.  I'm too lazy.

[Snake Diggity 4614]

A lot of people believe that Rockies players adjust their swing/approach (especially over a long period of time) to hitting at Coors field, resulting in splits that favor hitting at home.  I think there’s analysis that shows that players who leave Colorado end up readjusting and hitting quite a bit better than their road splits as a member of the Rockies.  I don’t necessarily believe that but I think there’s logic there.  Either way I don’t think it matters since I expect Story to at least get significantly more money than Baez for which very likely puts him out of Houston’s price range.

At this point my expectation is for the Astros to add an outfielder instead of a SS.  Whether that’s a free agent corner guy (Conforto, Pham, Castellanos) who might force Tucker into CF or a trade target (Gallo, Mullins) who can actually play CF I don’t know, but that’s the move I expect.

I think at this point Pena is the caliber of prospect who is usually not blocked.  The only player I could see standing in his way would have been Correa and that ship sailed as soon as Seager put pen to $325,000,000 worth of paper.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Snake Diggity