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2021-2022 Astros Offseason Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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13 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m going to acknowledge this though as cutting against my argument… it is very infrequently that the best team in baseball actually wins it all. Red Sox in 2018 and Dodgers in 2020 did it, but 2021 the Braves weren’t it (best team in the game) 20-9 we were a rampaging pride of fuck lions and didn’t win, 2017 the dodgers were probably slightly marginally by a cunt hair better than us and they didn’t win. So it goes. I like to take the tact of building the absolute best team possible and then rolling the dice, but there’s an argument to be made to just get in the playoffs and hope you are the team the baseball gods decide to bless by allowing it to ride the wave in October. 

Yup. And this is a big reason why owners want expanded playoffs - because the more teams that get in, the less you have to spend, the less that true greatness is incentivized. Even seven-game series in baseball can be fluky and are often not won by the team with the best roster or that proved to be the best over a large 162-game sample. 

Goodrum is fine; $2mm for a veteran with positional flexibility is more or less “the scrap heap.” If they need a roster spot his salary won’t stop them from placing him back on the scrap heap.

I hear you about getting another bat, and yeah there is current financial flexibility (relative to where the payroll has been). I’d be happy with a guy like Conforto or something like that (I’d rather have him than Soler)…he could probably be had for a short deal (a prove-it contract) and, if he is back to normal, isn’t much different than Bryant.

 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19134

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19 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

The problem is that Freeman and Bryant aren’t signing for $50M.  They’re signing for $150M+.  Niko Goodrum at $2.1M has zero impact on that kind of move.  You can argue the Odorizzi contract had some marginal impact on their ability to sign a major free agent but that was a desperation move in the wake of what they thought was a devastating turn of events in their rotation and justified at the time.  Neris is certainly the type of reliever who becomes extremely important down the stretch and in the playoffs (just as Graveman was last season).  If they want to sign a major free agent they can, even after the Neris/Odo/Goodrum moves.  It’s just pretty clear they don’t think that is a good allocation of resources at this time.  

Click had this team in the World Series last year.  He deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Lunow builT that team and Click tinkered around on the margins. And that’s not a criticism of him that’s the reality of him taking over in February after the scandal and then the pandemic and all that weirdness. This is the team that really is going to start having his imprint on it- bringing back LMJ and JV. Letting Correa and Springer walk. Bringing back Bradley. All the other decisions on the margins. Greinke gone.  It’s fair to consider this team more or less no longer the previous admins.  We will see how that works out. I don’t mean that in a bitchy way. That’s what playing the games are about and I’m bullish on this team. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19134

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14 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Yup. And this is a big reason why owners want expanded playoffs - because the more teams that get in, the less you have to spend, the less that true greatness is incentivized. Even seven-game series in baseball can be fluky and are often not won by the team with the best roster or that proved to be the best over a large 162-game sample. 

Goodrum is fine; $2mm for a veteran with positional flexibility is more or less “the scrap heap.” If they need a roster spot his salary won’t stop them from placing him back on the scrap heap.

I hear you about getting another bat, and yeah there is current financial flexibility (relative to where the payroll has been). I’d be happy with a guy like Conforto or something like that (I’d rather have him than Soler)…he could probably be had for a short deal (a prove-it contract) and, if he is back to normal, isn’t much different than Bryant.

 

This is a great post. It will be interesting to see what the ramifications of the new deal are. I think you are right that it disincentives greatness, but we might find that teams really go the opposite way and go hard for a top 2 record to avoid the uncertainty of an extra round of the playoffs. I think you are right but it could push teams to value winning 100 games over 94. It will definitely incentivize winning 87 on the other end. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

This is a great post. It will be interesting to see what the ramifications of the new deal are. I think you are right that it disincentives greatness, but we might find that teams really go the opposite way and go hard for a top 2 record to avoid the uncertainty of an extra round of the playoffs. I think you are right but it could push teams to value winning 100 games over 94. It will definitely incentivize winning 87 on the other end. 

I think what we’ll see is top-tier teams taking a wait-and-see approach entering the season, with intentions of acquiring players to bolster the roster at midseason. Basically the approach the Astros have taken for a few years now. So, off-seasons characterized by short-term deals and trying to extend your key players before they reach free agency. Then looking to address specific needs at the deadline.

But yeah, you’ll always have teams trying to do what the Mets are doing right now…but these will likely be the exception (and it’s not like it always works out). Good point about the byes - but remember that the owners wanted 14 teams in the playoffs. 

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10518

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Good point about the byes - but remember that the owners wanted 14 teams in the playoffs. 

The 12 team playoff was an easy give for the owners. It is only two 3 game playoff series less than the 14 team proposal. No telling what the owners got in return for that capitulation but I bet it was of greater value. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19134

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1 hour ago, OB3 said:

I know the odds with Correa aren’t good right now but Jon Heyman just said we have a better shot at Story than Correa. That Story is just seeing how Correa’s situation plays out

I won’t love/wouldn’t understand that. Unless story was on something like a 1 or 2 year prove it type deal. 
of all the names out there to start the year he was the guy I was by far the most dubious. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19134

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Just now, runthebone said:

Well, his career OPS is .972 at home and .752 on the road, so that is pretty nice.

That is certainly the concern with any Rockies player. There’s interesting data that basically says what helps at home hurts on the road, and they will perform much better than their road stats, but I’d rather just stay away. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19134

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7 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

story is cheaper than correa so i would assume we had a better shot at a lot of players than correa.  i hope story isn't high on our wishlist.

If you are going to spend a lot of money and it’s not on Correa, Bryant makes more sense to me than Story. 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4625

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There are just too many unknowns.  We don’t know Cranes willingness to spend now that the cap is increased.  We don’t know what kind of extension offers they might have out to guys like Yordan or Tucker.  We don’t know how much trade value Pena would have as a prospect.  We don’t know the front office’s perception of various free agent’s ability to play CF.  We don’t know how Meyers is expected to recover, or even how highly regarded he was even before the injury.  We don’t know how the new CBA has effected the FO’s approach to contending.  We don’t know what the current trade market looks like.  We don’t know McCullers’ health status. 
 

We can read the tea leaves and conclude that Correa is probably gone.  We can feel confident that regardless of all those unknowns, the Astros will field a pretty good team with 6 extremely good hitters and a deep pitching staff.  Other than that we will just have to sit back and see what happens over the next 3-4 weeks before really judging this years roster (or the Astros medium/long term outlook).

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19134

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11 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

There are just too many unknowns.  We don’t know Cranes willingness to spend now that the cap is increased.  We don’t know what kind of extension offers they might have out to guys like Yordan or Tucker.  We don’t know how much trade value Pena would have as a prospect.  We don’t know the front office’s perception of various free agent’s ability to play CF.  We don’t know how Meyers is expected to recover, or even how highly regarded he was even before the injury.  We don’t know how the new CBA has effected the FO’s approach to contending.  We don’t know what the current trade market looks like.  We don’t know McCullers’ health status. 
 

We can read the tea leaves and conclude that Correa is probably gone.  We can feel confident that regardless of all those unknowns, the Astros will field a pretty good team with 6 extremely good hitters and a deep pitching staff.  Other than that we will just have to sit back and see what happens over the next 3-4 weeks before really judging this years roster (or the Astros medium/long term outlook).

Honestly- I won’t even judge what their overall mindset is until the trade deadline. If we don’t spend I will hope we aggressively look for a bat at the deadline- but with the expanded playoffs who knows what will be available. I’m on record as saying I don’t like a lot of the moves Click has made, but I’m sure open to the possibility he has a plan that will show itself to be good at a later date 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14753

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I won’t love/wouldn’t understand that. Unless story was on something like a 1 or 2 year prove it type deal. 
of all the names out there to start the year he was the guy I was by far the most dubious. 

What does Story have to prove? He's a reasonable replacement for Correa. If they do sign Story, then I would imagine Diaz is getting moved. There is no need for Story, Diaz, and Goodrum making close to $30M on this roster.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14753

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49 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

If you are going to spend a lot of money and it’s not on Correa, Bryant makes more sense to me than Story. 

Other than Bryant doesn't play SS where you are replacing and you already have a 1B/3B/LF/RF/DH. Though Bryant did say he likes playing CF the most.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14753

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48 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Honestly- I won’t even judge what their overall mindset is until the trade deadline. If we don’t spend I will hope we aggressively look for a bat at the deadline- but with the expanded playoffs who knows what will be available. I’m on record as saying I don’t like a lot of the moves Click has made, but I’m sure open to the possibility he has a plan that will show itself to be good at a later date 

Well Click is 1 for 1 in true seasons, for making the WS under his direction. I know you like to bag on the Odorizzi signing but $9M for .7 war isn't too far off of value, giving that the Astros where already down Verlander, and Framber had just suffered what was thought to be a season ending injury half way through ST. Now with McCullers likely out for the season, you will likely need him to give you another 100+ innings. If he gives you another season like last year, you are getting your money's worth for a last minute acquisition that you were making out of desperation. If he pitches to his career norms it's a hell of a signing.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19134

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15 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Other than Bryant doesn't play SS where you are replacing and you already have a 1B/3B/LF/RF/DH. Though Bryant did say he likes playing CF the most.

You don’t have to have Bryant play SS. Right now you have 3 mediocre bats in the lineup, at C, SS and in the OF. I’d like to see us carry no more than 3 mediocre bats, so since we have a home at SS and OF we could fill either of those with a big bat and I’d be happy. I’d ideally like to see us have only 1 poor bat and I’d live to see Bryant (or cornholio) and Correa, and they could both fit in the short term and long term with a little creativity, but I know I’m the Lone Ranger on that one. 
Even if LMJ is gone I don’t want Odo on the team. JV, Framber, Garcia, Urquidy and Javier with Brown, Whitley and a couple other guys waiting on the wings is just fine with me. Odo is an innings eater. That has some value but not with this team, I’d rather we give those innings to some dudes like Brown, Whitley, Javier with actual upside. If they all shit the bed go have guys like Bielak, Ivey or Solomon eat innings for you at minimum wage. Ditto some of the bullpen guys they are paying. But I realize click isn’t going to do away with his depth to get two big bats but you sure as hell could get one. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19134

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24 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

What does Story have to prove? He's a reasonable replacement for Correa. If they do sign Story, then I would imagine Diaz is getting moved. There is no need for Story, Diaz, and Goodrum making close to $30M on this roster.

Story has to prove he is a plus bat away from Coors field. He hasn’t done that. He’s older than correa right?  Not as good in the field either. I’d rather pay  CC 10/300 than story 5/140 and it’s not particularly close. Now, if Story signs for 1/25 I will shut the fuck up I guess. 
Hell, there’s a fair chance I’m wrong. 

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10518

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29 minutes ago, thetruth said:

Schwab followed it up by saying Click gave Correa's camp terms they liked, Crane just had to agree to it. 

I’m calling bullshit on this. There might be an acceptable offer out there but there’s no way that Click gave it without previous approval from Crane 

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Muny_Tex

Muny_Tex 293

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One POV that I haven’t seen discussed much:

If you’re an AL GM that expects to be competitive, isn’t keeping Correa “off” the Astros a significant part of the calculus in terms of his potential value-add for your team as a FA signing?

As it stands, Astros are the mathematical favorites to win the pennant (+425)…if Correa comes back on a monster 1-year deal those odds probably drop to at least +250…and if CC re-signs with HOU long-term (albeit doubtful) then you’ve got a legit dynasty to contend with for the next ~4 seasons.

In other words, isn’t there something to be said for keeping the Astros “beatable” just as much as making a huge marquee upgrade to your own roster?


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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19134

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22 minutes ago, Muny_Tex said:

One POV that I haven’t seen discussed much:

If you’re an AL GM that expects to be competitive, isn’t keeping Correa “off” the Astros a significant part of the calculus in terms of his potential value-add for your team as a FA signing?

As it stands, Astros are the mathematical favorites to win the pennant (+425)…if Correa comes back on a monster 1-year deal those odds probably drop to at least +250…and if CC re-signs with HOU long-term (albeit doubtful) then you’ve got a legit dynasty to contend with for the next ~4 seasons.

In other words, isn’t there something to be said for keeping the Astros “beatable” just as much as making a huge marquee upgrade to your own roster?


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Yeah. Yanks should have thought about that. 

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