2021-2022 Astros Offseason Thread

[TonyTexas 10482]

3 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Yeah, Verlander doesn't cost draft picks and won't get a long deal.

Wrong. The Astros wouldn’t get the 2nd round compensatory draft pick if he resigns or accepts the Q.O.

[kevwun 15651]

You can have the 2nd round comp pick and I'll take 3 seasons of Verlander.  If they refuse to do long term deals, the only other way they are getting a top flight starter is by trading for someone who has multiple years left on their deal which is going to take quality prospects.  Losing out on a comp pick is a hell of a better deal.

Edited November 17, 2021 by kevwun

[Scraps 13542]

42 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

Bringing back Verlander is actually exactly what the Astros should do for the future and keeping this window open. A 3 year contract would help with both. I don’t see any way that signing Verlander mortgages the future. Should they give a 6/7 year deal to Robbie Ray? Him and Greinke are completely different pitchers, to compare them is ridiculous. 

yeah i didn't get his comment either.  

Sign verlander to a max of 3 years. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

JV is getting 3/85 with a 4th year option from someone. I don't know if that's a club or player option.  If Thor is worth 21 a year JV is easily worth 27 or 28. That will likely be a good contract for someone.  Then he can finish out his career if he's serious about pitching until he's 45 on 1 and 2 years contracts. 41 isn't particularly old for that guy. Not with as good as he was in winning a cy young at 37.  

Maybe it's only 3/80.  But it's going to be something like that.  There's no reason he won't get big money.  If he wants 3 years he will get that. Should it be the Astros?  Probably.

if you signed him to a $27,000,000 a year deal you've fixed the hole at the top of the rotation (and that helps with the bullpen) and you are set to go on the mound.  You lose 12 for Correa, 6 for JV and 24 for Greinke.  You've got 42 to spend now minus raises to replace Correa and fix CF.  I still think you should trade Brantley but I'm the lone ranger on that one here (but one of the crawfish box guys did suggest that in an article the other day), and that should be able to get you a Starling Marte and a decent SS replacement.  If you traded Brantley you could get a really good SS replacement but I guess they say Semien isn't a SS.  
Saw someone suggesting trading Bregman the other day- lets just say- I wasn't opposed to the idea.  Think we could get Sale for him?

[Scraps 13542]

You aren't the lone ranger.  That was part of my "unpopular opinions"  that I never posted.  

Wouldn't hurt my feelings if Brantley wasn't here 

[The Dog 43805]

13 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Wouldn't hurt my feelings if Brantley wasn't here 

[TonyTexas 10482]

Lots of assumptions being made that JV as a 39 year old, coming off of TJ surgery, who will have pitched 6 innings in 2 1/2 years will be close to 36 year old, 2019 vintage JV

[billfromlaketravis 11362]

Trading Brantley feels like a full rebuild. 
 

Trading Bregs on a club friendly deal when his value is at its lowest is silly. At least let him get healthy and reevaluate. 
 

Maldy is such a bad stick, I think it would be unwise to sign a cheap defensive first shortstop. You can’t have two black holes in your lineups. Not in the AL. Better to spend the cash elsewhere and let Pena have a stab at it. 
 

I’d be cool with Martes on a 5 year deal, and a couple SP reclamation projects on 1 year prove it deals. 
 

If you’re hoping for more, well you’re really not paying attention to who Click is. 
 

Regarding Correa and JV, 2 second round picks ain’t bad. Something is better than nothing. 

Edited November 17, 2021 by billfromlaketravis

[Guest]

1 hour ago, LebongJames said:

Bringing back Verlander is actually exactly what the Astros should do for the future and keeping this window open. A 3 year contract would help with both. I don’t see any way that signing Verlander mortgages the future. Should they give a 6/7 year deal to Robbie Ray? Him and Greinke are completely different pitchers, to compare them is ridiculous. 

Not with regard to age/ injury risk/ loss of effectiveness.

Acting as if the Astros are just gonna hit the reset button and get 2018 JV is ridiculous, all the same.

[billfromlaketravis 11362]

Some good names in this piece. I hope the Astros sign at least one of them. 
 

Link: https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2021/11/16/22785188/three-affordable-starting-pitching-options-for-the-astros-in-the-fa

[henrygandorf 29177]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

if you signed him to a $27,000,000 a year deal you've fixed the hole at the top of the rotation (and that helps with the bullpen) and you are set to go on the mound.

i've said it before but it's worth repeating - getting a sp1 makes 5 positions better, not even counting the bullpen and guys like javier.  whether it's jv or not, this spot needs to be addressed.  it just so happens that a realistic contract for jv (2-4 years) is right in our wheelhouse.  i still think robbie ray gets 6-7.  if he gets 5 and it's not us, i will be annoyed.

[formermav43 4599]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Some good names in this piece. I hope the Astros sign at least one of them. 
 

Link: https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2021/11/16/22785188/three-affordable-starting-pitching-options-for-the-astros-in-the-fa

Those guys aren’t really upgrades over anything already on the roster.

[LebongJames 1785]

7 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

Those guys aren’t really upgrades over anything already on the roster.

This

[tx 3 putt 76386]

15 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

Those guys aren’t really upgrades over anything already on the roster.

this, inning eaters though but we shouldn’t over pay for that 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Trading Brantley feels like a full rebuild. 
 

Trading Bregs on a club friendly deal when his value is at its lowest is silly. At least let him get healthy and reevaluate. 
 

Maldy is such a bad stick, I think it would be unwise to sign a cheap defensive first shortstop. You can’t have two black holes in your lineups. Not in the AL. Better to spend the cash elsewhere and let Pena have a stab at it. 
 

I’d be cool with Martes on a 5 year deal, and a couple SP reclamation projects on 1 year prove it deals. 
 

If you’re hoping for more, well you’re really not paying attention to who Click is. 
 

Regarding Correa and JV, 2 second round picks ain’t bad. Something is better than nothing. 

Bregs isn't really on a club friendly contract anymore man.  He's got 3 years 68 million remaining.  That's an AAV of 23 million dollars. It's probably not an overpay- but there is also probably not a lot of surplus value.

Trading Brantley wouldn't have anything to do with a rebuild- it would be saying- hey- we can use this $16,000,000 better somewhere else.  Brantley just isn't really all that valuable anymore.  He has little to zero defensive or base running value, he's unlikely to play 150 games, and he doesn't seem to have any thump left.  He is what he is which is a high contact high average professional hitter that will give you a quality AB without hurting you and a good veteran presence in the clubhouse.  We don't need that clubhouse presence on this team as it's coming off 5 consecutive ALCS trips, but we are going to need someone to bring the thump.  We used to get that at SS and CF where that's rare which allowed us to carry no power high average contact guys at the corner at 1B and LF- the 2 easiest defensive positions, but since Springer and Correa are gone we either need to replace them with someone that can mash (Semien and Starling Marte would be my preference) and/or trade them and bring in a more traditional corner player that can thump. Either we need to fix Bregman or let him be someone else's problem, b/c I can damn sure fucking guarantee you I'd rather pay Springer and Correa a combined $60 million a year than Bregman and Brantley $40,000,000 to give us what they are giving us. 

2nd round picks are basically trash.  You do a redraft in baseball after every draft and find that past about 15 guys you've never heard of anyone and they damn sure aren't high quality or difference makers.  top 5 picks matter.  A lot.  2nd round picks, 3rd round picks, 15th round picks are all basically the same and they are all lotto tickets.  fuck 2nd round picks being thought of as important in talking about guys like Correa and JV. It's the one thing fans always talk about that just doesn't matter in MLB.

Seriously, I urge all of you to go back and look at a couple redraft articles on the MLB draft. It's amazing how little talent comes through the draft. 

This is like 1 of the best 3 to 5 drafts ever- do any of the names starting with Jackie Bradley make you even consider for a second caring about having that person vs. losing JV or Correa?

https://www.mlb.com/news/redrafting-the-2011-mlb-draft

 

2010 redraft- with perfect hindsight and knowing what everyone's career turned into they still had Delino Deshields going in the first round.  We cared so little we let him get away for nothing when we weren't even a very good team!

https://www.mlb.com/news/redrafting-the-2010-mlb-draft

 

2009 redraft- Jake Marisnick is a first rounder.  I love Jake Marisnick.  Was a charter member of his fan club. If you have a 50 round draft and he's the 24th best player in it you absolutely positively cannot convince me this thing is anything other than a total crapshoot.

https://www.mlb.com/news/2009-mlb-draft-do-over

 

2008- Yikes- I stopped giving a shit about anyone on this list after the #2 pick. Hosmer is ok.  He's a fine player.  Really. I'd probably pick him in his prime over half the players at his position. Maybe 2/3.  He was #3 in this redraft!

https://www.mlb.com/news/2008-mlb-draft-do-over-c279247834

 

It's a fascinating rabbit hole- the MLB draft.  

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

i've said it before but it's worth repeating - getting a sp1 makes 5 positions better, not even counting the bullpen and guys like javier.  whether it's jv or not, this spot needs to be addressed.  it just so happens that a realistic contract for jv (2-4 years) is right in our wheelhouse.  i still think robbie ray gets 6-7.  if he gets 5 and it's not us, i will be annoyed.

Completely and totally correct if you are talking about a difference making hammer at the top. This is why I loathed the Odorizi signing so damn much from the second it happened- you don't pay $9,000,000 for average when you have as many average or better arms as the Astros but there damn sure is a ton of value for that hammer at the top. 

The Astros starting pitching this year was great for a 162 game season. Basically, you very very very rarely had anyone go to the mound that wasn't likely to give you average to above average MLB caliber performance. Over 162 games avoiding shitty below replacement level work from anyone on your team is super valuable. When you get to the playoffs though that doesn't mean dick it's about top end quality.  That was obviously lacking for us but even with all that we pieced together enough pitching that if we could have managed to score a mere 4 runs every game we would have been playing in game 7 of the world series- as our offense was a bigger issue than our defense.  

[Scraps 13542]

Yep ^ everything said about Brantley

Look I am not gonna be mad when he is here, but he isn't that valuable

[henrygandorf 29177]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Completely and totally correct if you are talking about a difference making hammer at the top.  

right, which is why i said sp1 not just sp.  i love lance, but he is not an ace.  neither is framber.  but if those guys continue to develop and are the sp2 and sp3 on a staff (not to mention having urquidy and garcia and possibly javier rounding out the rotation) then that's a team built to play into late october.

i don't hate the odorizzi situation and i understand why we did it (framber health).  hearing stories that it was he and machete leading the way in the clubhouse firing up the team before g4 vs boston makes me like him as a man, even when his on-the-field performance was not ideal. 

if we sign a sp1 type or trade for bassitt, then i would strongly consider going to a 6-man and having odorizzi be our sp6.  we're paying him, might as well use him, and he can keep you in games just fine.

[tx 3 putt 76386]

That’s how the last year of mlb contracts work. LuLz

 

 

[henrygandorf 29177]

2 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Yep ^ everything said about Brantley

Look I am not gonna be mad when he is here, but he isn't that valuable

brantley, much like yuli, needs to be in a really good lineup to be successful.  i could even argue correa* into that conversation, as i feel they are all very good complimentary bats.  brantley does what we need him to wedged in between a bunch of good to great hitters in a long lineup (bregman needs to wake up).  he keeps the line moving and we don't depend on him for anything else.  if he was on atlanta, toronto, boston, the white sox, same shit.  if he went back to cleveland, it would be a mess.

*this is in reference to correa the hitter.  obviously his glove brings a different dynamic.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

right, which is why i said sp1 not just sp.  i love lance, but he is not an ace.  neither is framber.  but if those guys continue to develop and are the sp2 and sp3 on a staff (not to mention having urquidy and garcia and possibly javier rounding out the rotation) then that's a team built to play into late october.

i don't hate the odorizzi situation and i understand why we did it (framber health).  hearing stories that it was he and machete leading the way in the clubhouse firing up the team before g4 vs boston makes me like him as a man, even when his on-the-field performance was not ideal. 

if we sign a sp1 type or trade for bassitt, then i would strongly consider going to a 6-man and having odorizzi be our sp6.  we're paying him, might as well use him, and he can keep you in games just fine.

I'd rather trade him and get the salary relief of $9,000,000.00 or whatever it is he is owed. I think he's got a neutral value contract. I think you could trade him for someone without having to attach value just to get out of the money owed. If so that would be my first preference. If not, I guess a 6 man rotation with an old JV, made out of glass LMJ and 3 other guys that profile between really really good (Framber) and above average but limited (Urquidy and Garcia) wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

I know this- a playoff rotation of JV, LMJ, Framber and then Urquidy/Garcia with this bullpen would have me feeling pretty good against anyone we matched up with in the post season- as long as the $42,000,000 from Greinke and Correa and the savings on bringing JV back was spent to fix the offense at SS and CF.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

brantley, much like yuli, needs to be in a really good lineup to be successful.  i could even argue correa* into that conversation, as i feel they are all very good complimentary bats.  brantley does what we need him to wedged in between a bunch of good to great hitters in a long lineup (bregman needs to wake up).  he keeps the line moving and we don't depend on him for anything else.  if he was on atlanta, toronto, boston, the white sox, same shit.  if he went back to cleveland, it would be a mess.

*this is in reference to correa the hitter.  obviously his glove brings a different dynamic.

Correa is more dangerous at the bat than Brantley and as a SS much more valuable comparing his bat to the average SS vs Brantley to the average LF- but yeah- he's not going to get incandescent and carry the team for a week or two singlehandedly like Springer used to or win a series for you by himself like Yordan did against Boston.  

[henrygandorf 29177]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I know this- a playoff rotation of JV, LMJ, Framber and then Urquidy/Garcia with this bullpen would have me feeling pretty good against anyone we matched up with in the post season- as long as the $42,000,000 from Greinke and Correa and the savings on bringing JV back was spent to fix the offense at SS and CF.

crazy to think we were playing in g6 of the world series without jv, lmj, meyers, and greinke (kinda).  not to mention the absolute abortion that the middle of our lineup experienced.  add back verlander and healthy lance (not to mention a new bat or two) and we're in business.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

crazy to think we were playing in g6 of the world series without jv, lmj, meyers, and greinke (kinda).  not to mention the absolute abortion that the middle of our lineup experienced.  add back verlander and healthy lance (not to mention a new bat or two) and we're in business.

Yeah- this team, by the end of the year, just wasn't very good.  That's what happens when you spend $75,000,000.00 on pitchers that give you 5 innings total in the LCS and world series along with your #3 hitter that needs surgery on his hand is gutting it out and waiting for the end of the year. It was a remarkable testament to the professionalism and fighting spirit of these guys that they got as close as they did with all that dead payroll in the form of injuries and hobbled Bregman.  But if you want to compare this team to 2019 this wasn't anything like a wasted chance, this was just, oh, it would have been nice to steal back a world series to make up for losing one by a historically great team the way 2019 ended up.  

[TonyTexas 10482]

12 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- this team, by the end of the year, just wasn't very good. 

They were better than 28 other teams

Edited November 17, 2021 by TonyTexas

[tx 3 putt 76386]

14 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- this team, by the end of the year, just wasn't very good.

Best team in the AL, but hey did the other teams even try ?

 

Just a reminder, once again every team in the AL is retooling this off season to take down the mlb team in Houston in 2022 

Edited November 17, 2021 by tx 3 putt

[WBT 20422]

11 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Better than 28 other teams. 

I'd say better than 24-26 but Atlanta was one of those so what are you going to do?

[WBT 20422]

I agree with the discussion about Brantley above but I'd just add that I doubt he has much trade value.  If that's the case you probably just let him play out the contract.

[tx 3 putt 76386]

Just now, WBT said:

I'd say better than 24-26 but Atlanta was one of those so what are you going to do?

162 games, plus 4 rounds of playoffs, I tend lean towards the best team comes out on top 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

13 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

They were better than 28 other teams

 

1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

Best team in the AL, but hey did the other teams even try ?

 

Just a reminder, once again every team in the AL is retooling this off season to take down the mlb team in Houston in 2022 

You two literalists.  Would you have taken the team that hobbled into the world series over any of our teams from 2017, 18, 19 or 20?  Of course not. That's what I was saying with that.  Compared to this 5 year run that team in the World Series without LMJ, JV, a washed Greinke, an injured Bregman and no Springer wasn't anywhere close to as good as what we sent out there in the playoffs in 17-20.  It wasn't a knock on them.  It's just a fact.

[tx 3 putt 76386]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

 

You two literalists.  Would you have taken the team that hobbled into the world series over any of our teams from 2017, 18, 19 or 20?  Of course not. That's what I was saying with that.  Compared to this 5 year run that team in the World Series without LMJ, JV, a washed Greinke, an injured Bregman and no Springer wasn't anywhere close to as good as what we sent out there in the playoffs in 17-20.  It wasn't a knock on them.  It's just a fact.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

2 minutes ago, WBT said:

I agree with the discussion about Brantley above but I'd just add that I doubt he has much trade value.  If that's the case you probably just let him play out the contract.

I don't think you trade him expecting to get anything at all from him.  Maybe a fringe reliever.  Or a player to be named later.  You literally just trade him somewhere where they'd prefer to spend $16,000,000 on him vs what you'd prefer to spend that money on him.  That contract shouldn't have negative value especially at a year.  You just want the ability to have flexibility if you move on from him you would in no way, shape or form be looking for value back.

I've got places that would make sense for him:  Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Padres, Phillies, Diamondbacks (saw they think they can win), Cardinals, Tigers (he would probably be a great fit there- they were horseshit in LF last year, reunite with AJ, you know they should have the room financially, he'd be a great veteran presence) and Mariners. 
All those teams he would probably upgrade LF for them. All those teams are trying to compete next year.  All would view Brantley I think as an upgrade. I don't know how many have payroll room to just take him on- but nobody fears 1 year deals. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

Damn it- I had a preseason power ranking and not a post season power ranking.  Dates- how do they work?  a couple of those teams might be wrong. 

At the end of the day Brantley was 39th in MLB OF'ers in War, and amongst LF he was 9th.  He's a top 10 LF.  Barely.  He's tied for 4th highest paid. Maybe he's a negative value contract.  I guess if you can't move him for cash relief he probably has to stay.  If there is a universal DH next year his market should be higher. 

[Scraps 13542]

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

6 minutes ago, Scraps said:

 

Cole and JV and Carlos Correa playing together on the 2022 Yankees seems like nightmare fuel for me.  This would be a pretty tough blow to take.  

[tx 3 putt 76386]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Cole and JV and Carlos Correa playing together on the 2022 Yankees seems like nightmare fuel for me.  This would be a pretty tough blow to take.  

until they miss the playoffs again 

[henrygandorf 29177]

9 minutes ago, Scraps said:

 

"he has multiyear and 1-year options."  that is some first rate reporting right there.  shocked he didn't say, "he can accept or decline the offers".

[TonyTexas 10482]

Just now, tx 3 putt said:

until they miss the playoffs again 

The Yankees could finish 4th in that division. TB, Toronto and Boston will be tough. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

I don't think they are finishing 4th if they had Cole, JV and Correa.  I don't see any reason to believe Boston will be any good.  I agree that TB and Toronto should be somewhere between very good and excellent. 

[Scraps 13542]

Toronto should win a world series in the next 3-5 yrs

But I should be working right now too

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

1 minute ago, Scraps said:

Toronto should win a world series in the next 3-5 yrs

But I should be working right now too

Yeah.  Hopefully if they do a Biggio will finally get a ring.  I'm not sure about their pitching but that lineup has a feel of what ours was like when we started getting young and good. 

[TonyTexas 10482]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah.  Hopefully if they do a Biggio will finally get a ring.  I'm not sure about their pitching but that lineup has a feel of what ours was like when we started getting young and good. 

Their pitching was good last year. 10th in ERA and tied for 7th in WHIP

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

9 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Their pitching was good last year. 10th in ERA and tied for 7th in WHIP

Yeah but wasn't that because Ray was basically Cy Young and he's about to walk?  Was any of their other staff the kind of quality you'd expect to get you through 3 series in the post season?

[Scraps 13542]

JV has 3 minutes to accept or boot the QO.

 

[Scraps 13542]

 

[henrygandorf 29177]

all of your nerds are belong to us. 

 

[TonyTexas 10482]

Now we know why CC dissed Jeter

 

[Gut Wagon 8052]

19 minutes ago, Scraps said:

 

Bring me Taylor. 

[Scraps 13542]

13 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Now we know why CC dissed Jeter

 

meh.  I will believe it when I see it 

[TonyTexas 10482]

WTF!