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2021-2022 Astros Offseason Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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Planet Houston
Planet Houston

Fuck the haters. We will be back again next year. Discuss. 

Jshep34
Jshep34

Lilshep collecting more hardware. All american games. Compete against kids from all over country. He went 5 for 6. 2 walks. Stole 8 bases. Played error free defense. Possibly selected for national t

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

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Scraps

Scraps 13542

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Still on the jeter thing....some dumbfucks on mlbradio yesterday evening said that Correa isn't someone they would want to build their franchise around after that comment. They weren't talking the Yankees they were talking about any franchise.

Then they went on to try and be funnybthe rest of the show and saying shit like....well if correa ends up back in houston i guess he can say biggio and bagwell dont deserve the statues outside. And if he goes to the Rangers he can say Nolan didnt throw hard and Beltre isn't a HOFer.

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11359

Posted
Posted
On 11/19/2021 at 8:31 AM, WBT said:

This is from a couple of days ago but I don't think it's been posted.  Kaplan lays out possible stopgap SSs until Pena is ready.  None of these excite me at all but I'm still in a combination of denial/mourning about losing Correa.

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By Jake Kaplan Nov 16, 2021comment-icon@2x.png 29 save-icon@2x.png

For as long as Carlos Correa remains a free agent, the Astros probably will act as if there’s still a chance they will re-sign him.

But barring a sudden reversal in the team’s longstanding aversion to the sort of eight-to-10-year mega-contract Correa is positioned to get, Houston is likely to have a new shortstop in 2022.

And if the Astros aren’t willing to spend what it takes to retain Correa, it stands to reason they’re not going to be a serious player for Corey Seager, either. Trevor Story, Marcus Semien and Javier Báez figure to get fewer years in their respective free-agent contracts, which might leave them in play for the Astros. But even then, winning a bidding war on the free-agent market is not their M.O.

The Astros will probably Astro, meaning a free-agent signee on a low-risk, one- or two-year deal. They already have a great shortstop prospect, Jeremy Peña, who has positioned himself for a 2022 debut. Peña, a 2018 third-round draft pick from the University of Maine, doesn’t have the glow of a top overall pick like Correa. But he’s got a chance to be really good, and we know how much baseball front offices love minimum-salaried, pre-arbitration talent.

It’s possible the 24-year-old Peña will be ready for the majors as soon as Opening Day. But the Astros can’t rely on that occurring, especially not after Peña’s wrist injury cost him most of the 2021 season, which directly followed the 2020 minor-league season that was lost because of the pandemic.

Given everything we know about the Astros and how they operate, they appear to be a prime candidate to go after a veteran stopgap at shortstop to buy time for Peña. In this scenario, they would need a player good enough that he’s not a total liability if Peña struggles or gets hurt and the stopgap has to play the whole season. But they also would need someone flexible enough to play elsewhere if Peña establishes himself in the majors in 2022. Ideally, the stopgap could shift into a utility role when Peña is ready.

And while Astros general manager James Click last week touted utility man Aledmys Díaz as a possible internal candidate, the team can’t reasonably rely on Díaz to stay healthy after his injury-riddled last three seasons. Click poured cold water on the idea of moving third baseman Alex Bregman to shortstop (“I would highly doubt it,” he said), a switch that might’ve been more likely before Bregman’s soft-tissue leg injuries of the last two years.

So, who are the available players who could function as the Astros’ bridge to Peña? Let’s take a look at the options, both in free agency and via trade.

Free agents

Chris Taylor
Bats: Right
Age on Opening Day: 31

Even though he’s not great defensively at shortstop, the uber-versatile Taylor would be an excellent fit for the Astros. He could play short until Peña is ready to take over and then either play center field or be a super-utilityman who can be in the lineup at a different position every day of the week.

Unfortunately for the Astros, Taylor is also a great fit for many other teams, which will give him a strong market. He has a 114 OPS+ over the last five years with the Dodgers, and he had an above-average OPS in each season in that span. Signing him would mean the Astros relinquish their second-round draft pick in 2022, but that would be relatively easy to justify for a player of the caliber of Taylor, who might get a four-year deal.

Andrelton Simmons
Bats: Right
Age on Opening Day: 32

Simmons was abysmal offensively with the Twins in 2021 (57 OPS+ in 451 plate appearances), but the four-time Gold Glove Award winner still provides value with his elite defense. A 98 OPS+ between 2017 and 2020 gives reason for at least some hope that his bat could be closer to average next year. Simmons played 2021 on a one-year, $10.5 million deal, so he should get something less than that this offseason.

Jonathan Villar
Bats: Switch
Age on Opening Day: 30

The journeyman Villar had a 102 OPS+ in 505 plate appearances for the Mets last season while moving between third base, shortstop and second base. He’s nothing special defensively but his switch hitting ability is a perk and he has experience as a utilityman. He’s a candidate for a one-year deal, likely worth more than the $3.55 million he made last season.

José Iglesias
Bats: Right
Age on Opening Day: 32

Iglesias struggled with the Angels last season to the point they released him in September. The Red Sox saw enough to sign him a few days later even though he wouldn’t be eligible for postseason play. He chases a ton and rarely walks, so his value is tied to his defense. He’s long been one of the more fun defenders to watch, though the Defense Runs Saved metric absolutely hated his performance (minus-21) last year. His age and poor 2021 leave him in one-year contract territory.

Leury García
Bats: Switch
Age on Opening Day: 31

Though a super-utilityman for the White Sox, Garcia’s natural position is shortstop. He has an 81 OPS+ in his career but a 97 OPS+ in the last two seasons. If teams buy into him being an average hitter, his defensive versatility could make him an interesting under-the-radar free agent on a one- or two-year contract. He played six different positions for Chicago in 2021.

Freddy Galvis
Bats: Switch
Age on Opening Day: 32

Galvis would make more sense for the Astros as a straight-up utility infielder to supplement Díaz than as someone who would be relied upon to start games regularly. He’s a good defender but has never had a 100 OPS+ in a season and has an 82 OPS+ for his career. The one-year, $1.5 million deal he signed with the Orioles last winter is probably around what he will net in free agency this time around.

Trade candidates

Paul DeJong
Bats: Right
Age on Opening Day: 28

DeJong’s contract with the Cardinals calls for him to make about $6 million in 2022 and about $9 million in 2023 with a $2 million buyout of a $12.5 million team option for 2024. He had only an 86 OPS+ over the last two seasons, but 2020 was short and weird and he had broken ribs in 2021. It’s not hard to talk yourself into the idea of a bounce-back 2022 by DeJong, and the Cardinals have the combination of Edmundo Sosa and Tommy Edman to play shortstop.

Nick Ahmed
Bats: Right
Age on Opening Day: 32

Ahmed is great defensively but bad offensively (76 OPS+ for his career, 67 OPS+ in 2021). He’s also still owed $7.875 million in 2022 and $10.375 million in 2023. The Diamondbacks are a long way from contention, and the Astros can absorb salary. Maybe there’s a deal to be made, though Ahmed and catcher Martín Maldonado in the same lineup might be one too many spots in which Houston would be sacrificing offense for defense. However, the same could be said for a number of the aforementioned shortstops, and the Astros could help their offense by adding an outfielder and/or spelling Maldonado with Jason Castro more frequently in 2022 than they did in 2021.

 

I’m cool with Pena and some Diaz at short. Spend the money elsewhere. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6310

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Scraps said:

Still on the jeter thing....some dumbfucks on mlbradio yesterday evening said that Correa isn't someone they would want to build their franchise around after that comment. They weren't talking the Yankees they were talking about any franchise.

Then they went on to try and be funnybthe rest of the show and saying shit like....well if correa ends up back in houston i guess he can say biggio and bagwell dont deserve the statues outside. And if he goes to the Rangers he can say Nolan didnt throw hard and Beltre isn't a HOFer.
 

I’m sure that comment will be a deciding factor in how much money teams are willing to pay him. 

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WBT

WBT 20421

Posted
Posted (edited)

A 1 year player option isn't an opt out.  That structure has been around forever. 

Opt outs are relatively new where players can opt out with several years remaining on the contract.  If coming off a good year(s), they can re-enter free agency with a chance to land a bigger deal.  If they've been hurt or just bad they can stick with their remaining multi-year deal.

Just piling on the discussion yesterday about what an idiot Heyman is.

Edited by WBT
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texashorne

texashorne 1177

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14 minutes ago, WBT said:

A 1 year player option isn't an opt out.  That structure has been around forever. 

Opt outs are relatively new where players can opt out with several years remaining on the contract.  If coming off a good year(s), they can re-enter free agency with a chance to land a bigger deal.  If they've been hurt or just bad they can stick with their remaining multi-year deal.

Just piling on the discussion yesterday about what an idiot Heyman is.

If JV sucks next season, he'll take the option at the end of 2022 to play in 23.. So the Astros deal is indeed better.. 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14487

Posted
Posted
On 11/20/2021 at 12:53 PM, henrygandorf said:

we need to address cf or ss in the off-season. not both. 

Yep. You need to replace Correa's production via either spot, with the guys in the system manning the other. I'm partial to upgrading CF, because Pena was drafted as a defense 1st SS, and his bat as developed to something around league averageish. His last 2 years in the minors he's put up a .301/.383/.477 triple slash, while stealing 26/37 bases. If you get Marte, then Pena at 8th isn't a horrible option.

Marte-Tucker-Altuve-Alvarez-Bregman-Brantley-Gurriel-Pena-Maldonado

Rotation

Verlander-McCullers-Valdez-Garcia-Urquidy

Bullpen

Pressly-Stanek-Javier

Rest of bullpen options

Taylor, Raley, Maton, Abreu, Bielak, Garcia, Solomon, Montero, Baez

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11359

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Posted
21 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

Yep. You need to replace Correa's production via either spot, with the guys in the system manning the other. I'm partial to upgrading CF, because Pena was drafted as a defense 1st SS, and his bat as developed to something around league averageish. His last 2 years in the minors he's put up a .301/.383/.477 triple slash, while stealing 26/37 bases. If you get Marte, then Pena at 8th isn't a horrible option.

Marte-Tucker-Altuve-Alvarez-Bregman-Brantley-Gurriel-Pena-Maldonado

Rotation

Verlander-McCullers-Valdez-Garcia-Urquidy

Bullpen

Pressly-Stanek-Javier

Rest of bullpen options

Taylor, Raley, Maton, Abreu, Bielak, Garcia, Solomon, Montero, Baez

I’d upgrade that rotation. There some cheap one year contracts out there that would be better Garcia and Urquidy. Possibly better than Framber. 
 

I’d resign Maton and retain Baez. I’d bring back Yimi too. 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

bullpen is intact except for graveman i believe.  i would love to keep him, but someone else is going to give him closer money and i'm inclined to let them.

i'm not sure i've ever felt better about an astros bullpen heading into a season in the past 15 years.

Bullpen lost Graveman, Yimi, and Raley.  It looks like they expect to get something out of Baez and Montero, so there’s currently only 1 spot open (currently projects to be filled by James or Taylor).  I expect they’ll acquire a proven elite reliever somehow.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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Posted (edited)

A trade for Josh Hader or Taylor Rogers would be great.  I would also be willing to pay Danny Duffy a good amount if he were willing to be a reliever.  Adding an elite lefty to Pressly and the back end with Maton/Stanek/Javier as the bridge guys would be kick ass even if Baez and Montero were duds.

I also think Shawn Dubin could be an elite RP if they go that route with him next season.

Of course if Cleveland were willing to listen on Clase they’d be my first call.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18980

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, kevwun said:

It's Wulaw's dream come true.

I came. And then I cussed out everyone in the entire Astros organization for not putting that deal in front of 21 year old Carlos Correa. I was like 5 years ahead of the curve on this one. Thanks for remembering. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18980

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Posted

I’m now going to pull a Derka and type a bunch of words nobody other than me cares about, about this concept:

Lots of people are saying this is a bad deal for Wander or for anyone taking a deal like that- but I think that’s fundamentally misplaced. If he had his entire career to play out and went to arbitration, and then Free Agency, maybe had some opt outs, kept his deal short blah blah blah his potential career earnings are somewhere between $1,000,000 and $500,000,000 in all likelihood. $1,000,000 represents what would happen if he got caught with a major injury that made him unable to play baseball again with no long term deal in place. $500,000,000 represents what he would get if he becomes a transcendent HOF player. He’s now guaranteed what- $240,000,000 with an upside of maybe 350,000,000 (he will be up at 34 years old and if you look at a guy like Beltran who made 15 million in his age 39 season you could see a slight chance at him making over 100 from his age 34 season on if he’s a HOF guy). So- he narrowed his possible career earnings from 1-500 million to 240-350 million. This is smart!  He has only 1 career. At the end of the day no sane person should ever feel bad about making 240 million worst case scenario. He takes all sorts of bad options off the table. He limits his exposure. He gets only 1 career and earnings wise it can never be a disappointment. Great job!

it’s also smart for the team. They have so much more tolerance for risk. If he sucks or gets injuries it’s the cost of an all star type signing every year. That would suck. But it doesn’t cripple them. If he’s awesome they should net 100’s of millions in surplus value over the course of his career. They could well get a billion dollars worth of surplus value if he becomes a 100+ war guy over the course of his career. That’s awesome. They can take the risk. He shouldn’t. This should be what every contract ends up being whenever a team calls up a transcendent player. And, it’s good for the fans!

Luhnow got this. He was just too miserly in really trying to turn the screws on Correa and Springer when they were young. He learned (somewhat) with Bregman. 
I wish he would have been willing to leave a little more meat in the bone with those guys. I think it’s the only thing I ever disagreed with him during his tenure. He squeezed them too hard and too late in the process, never truly offering up generational wealth, stopping short at fantastically comfortable. 
oh well.  He did everything else right. But yeah, I’m jealous. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29176

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m now going to pull a Derka and type a bunch of words nobody other than me cares about, about this concept:

Lots of people are saying this is a bad deal for Wander or for anyone taking a deal like that- but I think that’s fundamentally misplaced. If he had his entire career to play out and went to arbitration, and then Free Agency, maybe had some opt outs, kept his deal short blah blah blah his potential career earnings are somewhere between $1,000,000 and $500,000,000 in all likelihood. $1,000,000 represents what would happen if he got caught with a major injury that made him unable to play baseball again with no long term deal in place. $500,000,000 represents what he would get if he becomes a transcendent HOF player. He’s now guaranteed what- $240,000,000 with an upside of maybe 350,000,000 (he will be up at 34 years old and if you look at a guy like Beltran who made 15 million in his age 39 season you could see a slight chance at him making over 100 from his age 34 season on if he’s a HOF guy). So- he narrowed his possible career earnings from 1-500 million to 240-350 million. This is smart!  He has only 1 career. At the end of the day no sane person should ever feel bad about making 240 million worst case scenario. He takes all sorts of bad options off the table. He limits his exposure. He gets only 1 career and earnings wise it can never be a disappointment. Great job!

it’s also smart for the team. They have so much more tolerance for risk. If he sucks or gets injuries it’s the cost of an all star type signing every year. That would suck. But it doesn’t cripple them. If he’s awesome they should net 100’s of millions in surplus value over the course of his career. They could well get a billion dollars worth of surplus value if he becomes a 100+ war guy over the course of his career. That’s awesome. They can take the risk. He shouldn’t. This should be what every contract ends up being whenever a team calls up a transcendent player. And, it’s good for the fans!

Luhnow got this. He was just too miserly in really trying to turn the screws on Correa and Springer when they were young. He learned (somewhat) with Bregman. 
I wish he would have been willing to leave a little more meat in the bone with those guys. I think it’s the only thing I ever disagreed with him during his tenure. He squeezed them too hard and too late in the process, never truly offering up generational wealth, stopping short at fantastically comfortable. 
oh well.  He did everything else right. But yeah, I’m jealous. 

agreed with all of this.  to say nothing of the fact that a young guy like franco, making that much money in his earlier years will be able to have ~smart people investing it and never worry about money again.  it's like the lottery choices of flat amount now vs cash every month for 20 years or whatever i don't play the lottery.  by the time it's 2030 he'll have way more money than he'll know what to do with.

also, and nobody is really talking about this, but salaries haven't really gone up exponentially like people thought they would.  it's been 20 years since a-rod got $25mm per year for 10 years.  now it's 2021 and people are getting more, i guess, but not much more, and in very isolated cases (mookie, trout, lindor). 

i think teams give long deals so they can overpay at the beginning but vastly underpay at the end.  the way salaries have leveled off, they're not really underpaying like they were probably led to believe.  people can speculate that a free agent wander would make $40-$50mm per year in 2027 but i seriously fucking doubt it.

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