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2021-2022 Astros Offseason Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19580

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8 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

agreed with all of this.  to say nothing of the fact that a young guy like franco, making that much money in his earlier years will be able to have ~smart people investing it and never worry about money again.  it's like the lottery choices of flat amount now vs cash every month for 20 years or whatever i don't play the lottery.  by the time it's 2030 he'll have way more money than he'll know what to do with.

also, and nobody is really talking about this, but salaries haven't really gone up exponentially like people thought they would.  it's been 20 years since a-rod got $25mm per year for 10 years.  now it's 2021 and people are getting more, i guess, but not much more, and in very isolated cases (mookie, trout, lindor). 

i think teams give long deals so they can overpay at the beginning but vastly underpay at the end.  the way salaries have leveled off, they're not really underpaying like they were probably led to believe.  people can speculate that a free agent wander would make $40-$50mm per year in 2027 but i seriously fucking doubt it.

Trout already makes 40 million. Lots of guys make 33 or 35. If wander is who we think he is he would get 40 million a year I bet. But who knows if it plays out that way. 
but yeah overall you are right salaried haven’t continued to skyrocket. 

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Planet Houston
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Fuck the haters. We will be back again next year. Discuss. 

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Lilshep collecting more hardware. All american games. Compete against kids from all over country. He went 5 for 6. 2 walks. Stole 8 bases. Played error free defense. Possibly selected for national t

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henrygandorf

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14 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Trout already makes 40 million. Lots of guys make 33 or 35. If wander is who we think he is he would get 40 million a year I bet. But who knows if it plays out that way. 
but yeah overall you are right salaried haven’t continued to skyrocket. 

maybe my sources are wrong, but it looks like that list is : trout, cole, strasberg, rendon, lindor, bauer, arenado.  not sure what the bauer situation looks like with all the drama, but that's 7 guys making over $31mm.  plenty of guys make $28-$31mm.

for a decade it seems we've been hearing that guys like bryce harper or whomever were going to be the first $40mm per year guy or the first $400mm guy or whatever the fuck (is that what a-rod said about correa?).  anyhow, those contracts are out there, but they've definitely leveled off from the projections. 

i think the wander deal is good for both sides and the fans.  rare that you can say that about anything.

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WBT

WBT 20969

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m now going to pull a Derka and type a bunch of words nobody other than me cares about, about this concept:

Lots of people are saying this is a bad deal for Wander or for anyone taking a deal like that- but I think that’s fundamentally misplaced. If he had his entire career to play out and went to arbitration, and then Free Agency, maybe had some opt outs, kept his deal short blah blah blah his potential career earnings are somewhere between $1,000,000 and $500,000,000 in all likelihood. $1,000,000 represents what would happen if he got caught with a major injury that made him unable to play baseball again with no long term deal in place. $500,000,000 represents what he would get if he becomes a transcendent HOF player. He’s now guaranteed what- $240,000,000 with an upside of maybe 350,000,000 (he will be up at 34 years old and if you look at a guy like Beltran who made 15 million in his age 39 season you could see a slight chance at him making over 100 from his age 34 season on if he’s a HOF guy). So- he narrowed his possible career earnings from 1-500 million to 240-350 million. This is smart!  He has only 1 career. At the end of the day no sane person should ever feel bad about making 240 million worst case scenario. He takes all sorts of bad options off the table. He limits his exposure. He gets only 1 career and earnings wise it can never be a disappointment. Great job!

it’s also smart for the team. They have so much more tolerance for risk. If he sucks or gets injuries it’s the cost of an all star type signing every year. That would suck. But it doesn’t cripple them. If he’s awesome they should net 100’s of millions in surplus value over the course of his career. They could well get a billion dollars worth of surplus value if he becomes a 100+ war guy over the course of his career. That’s awesome. They can take the risk. He shouldn’t. This should be what every contract ends up being whenever a team calls up a transcendent player. And, it’s good for the fans!

Luhnow got this. He was just too miserly in really trying to turn the screws on Correa and Springer when they were young. He learned (somewhat) with Bregman. 
I wish he would have been willing to leave a little more meat in the bone with those guys. I think it’s the only thing I ever disagreed with him during his tenure. He squeezed them too hard and too late in the process, never truly offering up generational wealth, stopping short at fantastically comfortable. 
oh well.  He did everything else right. But yeah, I’m jealous. 

Agree with all of that.  The pre-arb and arbitration years give a huge amount of leverage to the team (and represent a huge amount of risk for players).  We should see more of these types of deals for truly great players.  

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29225

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29 minutes ago, WBT said:

Agree with all of that.  The pre-arb and arbitration years give a huge amount of leverage to the team (and represent a huge amount of risk for players).  We should see more of these types of deals for truly great players.  

also any time an offer like that gets publicized, it gets immediately criticized for being too team friendly, trying to lock up a player and restrict their freedoms to go make a billion dollars rah rah.  young players are criminally underpaid, and nobody who's offered millions in their early 20's is a fucking victim, i'm sick of it. 

buying out those years is a win-win.  be smart with your money and your grandkids never have to work.  any loudmouth baseball writer who talks shit can suck it.  these kids are playing a sport and could get injured at any time.  some of my angst is about service time which is also a joke, but i'm sure will be "resolved" in the cba negotiations.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 19520

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2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I came. And then I cussed out everyone in the entire Astros organization for not putting that deal in front of 21 year old Carlos Correa. I was like 5 years ahead of the curve on this one. Thanks for remembering. 

 

3 hours ago, Planet Houston said:

Sure would like to be in the middle of that contract for Correa!

Yeah, but it's not something the Astros will ever do.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19580

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34 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

also any time an offer like that gets publicized, it gets immediately criticized for being too team friendly, trying to lock up a player and restrict their freedoms to go make a billion dollars rah rah.  young players are criminally underpaid, and nobody who's offered millions in their early 20's is a fucking victim, i'm sick of it. 

buying out those years is a win-win.  be smart with your money and your grandkids never have to work.  any loudmouth baseball writer who talks shit can suck it.  these kids are playing a sport and could get injured at any time.  some of my angst is about service time which is also a joke, but i'm sure will be "resolved" in the cba negotiations.

Quite right man. It’s so fucking stupid that they just ignore risk of sucking. Getting found out. Injury. It’s absurd that they act like that. 
I think the only deal I thought ever sucked from the players perspective was Acuna, and my biggest bitch about that wasn’t years or money but that the two or three years or free agency that got bought out were club options. I thought that really sucked. 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 19520

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6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

They kind of sort of tried. And they did 6/100 with Bregman right?  But that was 2.5 years in. They definitely want to stack the deck against the players. 

Do you think a 21 year old Carlos Correa would have signed an extension? I always thought of him as someone who would absolutely want to test the market.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19580

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3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Do you think a 21 year old Carlos Correa would have signed an extension? I always thought of him as someone who would absolutely want to test the market.

I think if you would have offered him 10/100 before he got called up he might have. That was my suggestion in 2014 on the shag. They never really offered him something like that. But yeah- that would have been really hard to walk away from when he was in the minors I’d think. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19580

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5 minutes ago, WBT said:

I don't think Correa would have signed for 10/100.  It would have taken something close to what Wander got.  It was 6 years ago but salaries haven't climbed much sent then.

You should at least offer it. He only made like 25 million his first 6 years, so that’s 4/75 as an offer before he played a game?  He might have said no but that would have been tough to say no to. They never offered- such is a pity. That’s about what Acuna signed for but he didn’t even have a guarantee, just club options on the final 3 years. 
If I was  his advisor when he was 20 and hadn’t played an inning of big league ball I’d have told him to take it. 

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10743

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Seems like the Tigers are cooling on signing Carlos due to price. That’s good for the Astros as it doesn’t appear that the SS market is a strong as anticipated. Probably still out on CC but might be able to get another good one at a somewhat more reasonable number if that’s the direction they want to take. 
 

Also, the Orioles have said they’d listen to offers for CF Cedric Mullins. He’ll be expensive but would be an awesome acquisition. Young , talented switch hitter who’s not a FA until 2026. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19580

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If we signed Correa, I could give a shit about Peña. 
Meyer, Peña, Brown and Whitley. That seems like an incredibly strong offer. And all of them are guys that are blocked, superfluous or that we can get along without. 
That leaves LF and 1B to fix long term, but Lee takes over in 2023, Chaz plays LF I guess in 2023 under that scenario. 1B shouldn’t be too hard to  fill via FA next offseason. 

That foursome would probably be worth 6-12 WAR per year depending upon how they all shake out developmentally but that’s 2 cracks at a TOR guy with one of them likely to be a MOR guy at worst, a 3 WAR type CF and a guy that at worst will play a decent SS and not embarrass you with the glove. If someone else makes a better deal so be it. I’d also want to include ODO in that package just to get off the salary and figure Baltimore can let him eat innings and maybe flip him at the deadline to a contender. Win/win. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19580

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8 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

4 years / $78mil

 

Shit man- I had him getting $85 and people were like no way. That seems cheap to me obviously. We should have jumped at that. I hate everything again (unless we are keeping our powder dry for correa). 
I think I’m going to be really bummed when I see what Bryant gets and it’s not us. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19580

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I mean- if we are saving this powder for correa that’s awesome. 
If we pass on Marte and Bryant and end up with some stupid 5/135 deal for Story that’s gonna suck. 
At least we (hopefully) have our top of rotation hammer. Arms should be completely set until deadline. We need to spend that 32 million we have left from Greinke and JV (plus the 12 from Correa). 

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LebongJames

LebongJames 1920

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25 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean- if we are saving this powder for correa that’s awesome. 
If we pass on Marte and Bryant and end up with some stupid 5/135 deal for Story that’s gonna suck. 
At least we (hopefully) have our top of rotation hammer. Arms should be completely set until deadline. We need to spend that 32 million we have left from Greinke and JV (plus the 12 from Correa). 

A few weeks ago I thought Correa was 100% gone. I’m starting to get a feeling he comes back for 8/$248

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 23038

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Awful. We didn’t need that. Bats motherfucker bats. 

I think it was probably foolish of us to not think Click would pursue a Graveman replacement.

I think it’s too early to call this move “awful.” If the money going to Neris prevents an impact signing, sure. But it’s hard to be upset with the player.
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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 23038

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You never know with BP guys but Neris has had a better career than Graveman. 

This is correct. Graveman had an incredible first half of 2021 and a pretty crappy career otherwise. No way our front office would sign off on three years for that track record.

For reference, Neris’s career ERA (400+ appearances) is better than any non-2021 season for Graveman.
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19580

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1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:


I think it was probably foolish of us to not think Click would pursue a Graveman replacement.

I think it’s too early to call this move “awful.” If the money going to Neris prevents an impact signing, sure. But it’s hard to be upset with the player.

We spent on an unneeded luxury 2 years in a row. That’s 16 or so million we could have just given to correa. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19580

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28 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:


For someone who follows this shit so closely, it puzzles me how you still don’t understand that our ability to sign Correa will be more about the years than the money.

It’s all stupid. Arbitrary bullshit To keep years down for no ducking reason with a 27 year old in his prime. 
but, if you must fucking give him a short term deal then how about this:

3 years 120 million. 
12x3= 36 for correa himself. 
32- odo plus this guy. 
32- JV and Greinke going away this year 

32- Brantley next year coming off the books (not having to pay him now or in 23)  

thats 132 million using this year as a baseline. He’s a FA again at 29. 
the point is there is all sorts of things you can do to make this work. 
you can trade years for AAV. You can pile up savings on the short term, and then when you extend out the years it doesn’t matter if he sucks then. You can front load the money and make a decent taper where you capture his value as a 37 year old. Money is fungible. This entire thing paying 16 million for a combined two middle relievers per year and then crying poor for a generational talent that’s the face of your franchise (if it goes down that way) sucks. 
 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19580

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I don’t know- maybe they just don’t like Correa on a personal level. Or don’t believe in him. 
they monkeyed with his service time and never offered him anything approaching a good reason to sign when he was young. 
they didn’t offer him a wander type deal. 
they didn’t offer to buy out FA years

they didn’t offer to buy out arbitration 

they made him a dog shit offer at the beginning of this year 

they offered him about half of what he wanted to money and didn’t even do a higher AAV offer to try to get him to sign a shorter term deal (since nobody will even confirm the 6/210). 
it’s been a goat fuck of missed opportunities his entire career with this team and I don’t get the disrespect for him unless they just don’t like him or think he’s good. If the reason we let him (and Springer) walk so that we can pay Brantley, Odo and this fucking Jag- and Baez- middle class to upper middle class wages well, that’s really fucking stupid. Especially when, as I reiterate- we don’t fucking need any more arms because we have plenty, and if that changes between now and the deadline you can always get a reliever for pretty cheap in his walk year from some scrubilicous team when you can’t get superstar/face of the franchise guys for Pennies on the dollar during the deadline, ughhhh. I don’t like Click. The next good needle moving move he makes for us will be his first. His 4 most expensive FA signing so far we should just as soon want to get out of all of them if given the opportunity to waive a magic wand. 

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