2021-2022 Astros Offseason Thread

[Js1 85104]

30 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

A lot of people believe that Rockies players adjust their swing/approach (especially over a long period of time) to hitting at Coors field, resulting in splits that favor hitting at home.  I think there’s analysis that shows that players who leave Colorado end up readjusting and hitting quite a bit better than their road splits as a member of the Rockies.  I don’t necessarily believe that but I think there’s logic there.  Either way I don’t think it matters since I expect Story to at least get significantly more money than Baez for which very likely puts him out of Houston’s price range.

 

LeMahieu had a better BA, SLG and OPS in New York than he did in Colorado.  Hit 3 less HR in half the tenure. 

[Gourmand 7774]

18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

LeMahieu had a better BA, SLG and OPS in New York than he did in Colorado.  Hit 3 less HR in half the tenure. 

Smaller sample size though. He's had, what, one very good year in NY? He looks like he may be fading into an average player his 30's and he's exactly the kind of Rockie that I think Trevor Story's arc may follow into free agency. Not a player I want the Astros to overpay. 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

In addition to Ketel Marte, Bryan Reynolds, Mullins, and Gallo, here are some under the radar potential trade targets: Joey Wendle, Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon, David Peralta, Daulton Varsho, Ian Happ, Andrew Benintendi, Tony Kemp, Mike Moustakas, Jesse Winker

[Murfdogg21 4412]

2 hours ago, Ojo Rojo said:

I wondered the same thing until someone educated me that AAV is what is used for luxury tax purposes, so that doesn't work.

Has anyone considered signing him to a Bobby Bonilla contract, like $300 for 30 years? Carlos gets his money, only $10M AAV, $10M in the 2040’s will be nothing to Crane’s successor, bodda boom bodda bing. 

[tx 3 putt 76352]

2 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Has anyone considered signing him to a Bobby Bonilla contract, like $300 for 30 years? Carlos gets his money, only $10M AAV, $10M in the 2040’s will be nothing to Crane’s successor, bodda boom bodda bing. 

bernie madoff approved !

[Chuckie Finster 22599]

41 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

In addition to Ketel Marte, Bryan Reynolds, Mullins, and Gallo, here are some under the radar potential trade targets: Joey Wendle, Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon, David Peralta, Daulton Varsho, Ian Happ, Andrew Benintendi, Tony Kemp, Mike Moustakas, Jesse Winker

Not a very exciting option, but it wouldn't shock me to see Click get involved with Kiermaier.

[HtownHorn 14485]

2 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

A lot of people believe that Rockies players adjust their swing/approach (especially over a long period of time) to hitting at Coors field, resulting in splits that favor hitting at home.  I think there’s analysis that shows that players who leave Colorado end up readjusting and hitting quite a bit better than their road splits as a member of the Rockies.  I don’t necessarily believe that but I think there’s logic there.  Either way I don’t think it matters since I expect Story to at least get significantly more money than Baez for which very likely puts him out of Houston’s price range.

At this point my expectation is for the Astros to add an outfielder instead of a SS.  Whether that’s a free agent corner guy (Conforto, Pham, Castellanos) who might force Tucker into CF or a trade target (Gallo, Mullins) who can actually play CF I don’t know, but that’s the move I expect.

I think at this point Pena is the caliber of prospect who is usually not blocked.  The only player I could see standing in his way would have been Correa and that ship sailed as soon as Seager put pen to $325,000,000 worth of paper.

Shit they are talking about the Rockies implementing a home/road roster outside their core players.

[henrygandorf 29174]

coors field bullshit doesn’t matter, story and correa are basically the same player regardless of park, but story is way cheaper.

this is why i fully endorse trevor story to the new york yankees. 

[Gourmand 7774]

With baby Correa due before the start of spring training, I wonder how much of a hometown advantage the Astros might have if they make an aggressive offer wrt AAV and a shorter contract that allows on him to bet on himself again in the next three years. That baby is going to turn his world on its head.

[tx 3 putt 76352]

 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

Scrubb was removed from the 40 man to make room for Verlander.  All 6 arb eligible players were tendered.

[Murfdogg21 4412]

4 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

bernie madoff approved !

Edited December 1, 2021 by Murfdogg21

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Scrubb was removed from the 40 man to make room for Verlander.  All 6 arb eligible players were tendered.

Good. Didn’t ever like him. What we don’t men to 1 or 2 pieces of flotsam on the 40 man? 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

Buster Olney made comments on Twitter that he thinks Houston will sign either Story or Correa and that he thinks Correa’s best offer will likely come from the Astros.  Olney usually has good intel and doesn’t talk out of his ass.  Surprising and interesting.  Doubt anything goes down today so we will probably have to wait a month or two to find out if he’s right.

[tx 3 putt 76352]

[Gourmand 7774]

The Astros have a new Director of Player Development.....

https://www.mlb.com/news/sara-goodrum-leaving-brewers-joining-astros-player-development

[Murfdogg21 4412]

10 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

The Astros have a new Director of Player Development.....

https://www.mlb.com/news/sara-goodrum-leaving-brewers-joining-astros-player-development

I can’t wait to see Framber develop his underhand fastball. Is this some kind of penance for Ozuna, like when MLB made us go to the AL or made us the whipping boy for all cheating but let us keep the trophy?

[UTexasFight 9379]

13 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

I can’t wait to see Framber develop his underhand fastball. Is this some kind of penance for Ozuna, like when MLB made us go to the AL or made us the whipping boy for all cheating but let us keep the trophy?

Kinda misogynistic?

[Murfdogg21 4412]

11 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Kinda misogynistic?

Kinda? I undershot it. 
 

Sorry, after my jealous angst for Lincoln Riley’s success, seeing a 27 year old softball player who has been away from college (undergrad plus masters) for 4 years become my team’s director of player development seems suspect. I’d say it if it was a male college baseball player from Oregon too. If she can teach Machete to hit .300 I’m all for it though. 

[TonyTexas 10482]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Olney usually has good intel and doesn’t talk out of his ass.

Did you not follow him during the cheating scandal? He talked out of ass plenty. 

[Chuckie Finster 22599]

26 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Kinda? I undershot it. 
 

Sorry, after my jealous angst for Lincoln Riley’s success, seeing a 27 year old softball player who has been away from college (undergrad plus masters) for 4 years become my team’s director of player development seems suspect. I’d say it if it was a male college baseball player from Oregon too. If she can teach Machete to hit .300 I’m all for it though. 

The Astros have hired a ton of 20-somethings into pretty important roles over the past decade.  Front Office hirings should be at the very, very bottom of things to worry about with this club.

[TonyTexas 10482]

If the market doesn’t work out to Correa’s liking, is it a possibility that he (or the Astros) would do a 1 year bridge deal for something like $35M and then re-enter the free agent market next year?

[henrygandorf 29174]

28 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

If the market doesn’t work out to Correa’s liking, is it a possibility that he (or the Astros) would do a 1 year bridge deal for something like $35M and then re-enter the free agent market next year?

like a franchise tag?

more likely it would be like 3-120 but same basic objective. 

[Mez2 4021]

with opt out after year 2

[David Dennison 18655]

4 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

Did you not follow him during the cheating scandal? He talked out of ass plenty. 

Yeah, but we cheated. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

4 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

like a franchise tag?

more likely it would be like 3-120 but same basic objective. 

3/120 would be fine with me.  I mean, I much prefer 15 for 350 or something like that, but apparently Jim Crane will turn into a frog if he signs a contract longer than 5 years or some other made up self inflicted nonsense, so... ok- that's probably a fair deal for age 27-29 of Carlos Correa.  I'd probably even say 3/135 would be fair for 27-29 if we are being honest. If he's a 6 WAR player that's still a value.  No reason absent injury he shouldn't be a 6 or 7 WAR player. 

[texashorne 1177]

We don't have them money left for Correa after JV and that reliever, no? 

 

[Chuckie Finster 22599]

Anyone have any theories as to why we haven't officially announced the Verlander extension?

[Gourmand 7774]

6 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Anyone have any theories as to why we haven't officially announced the Verlander extension?

They are always slow to make official moves. 

[tx 3 putt 76352]

1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Anyone have any theories as to why we haven't officially announced the Verlander extension?

because you touch yourself 

[Gourmand 7774]

 

[tx 3 putt 76352]

Hmmm
 

 

[UTexasFight 9379]

Cliff notes? 
i prefer not clicking any links that involve Olney

[henrygandorf 29174]

back issues. same rumors that were swirling around months ago. 

[HtownHorn 14485]

37 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Cliff notes? 
i prefer not clicking any links that involve Olney

It is what I mentioned a month ago. Teams are worried about his back, and he's not doing medicals.

[Mo Horn 8807]

Now that owners have locked out the players, everything comes to a standstill with free agency. 

[Planet Houston 4923]

7 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

3/120 would be fine with me.  I mean, I much prefer 15 for 350 or something like that, but apparently Jim Crane will turn into a frog if he signs a contract longer than 5 years or some other made up self inflicted nonsense, so... ok- that's probably a fair deal for age 27-29 of Carlos Correa.  I'd probably even say 3/135 would be fair for 27-29 if we are being honest. If he's a 6 WAR player that's still a value.  No reason absent injury he shouldn't be a 6 or 7 WAR player. 

For an owner who has a team on a 5 year heater in the LCS, WS yada yada, you sure have a big stick up your ass about Jim Crane. Jesus, give it a rest. There is absolutely nothing he has done to earn a reputation of being a cheap - or anything less than savvy - owner. He knows what he’s doing. 

[tx 3 putt 76352]

Just now, Planet Houston said:

For an owner who has a team on a 5 year heater in the LCS, WS yada yada, you sure have a big stick up your ass about Jim Crane. Jesus, give it a rest. There is absolutely nothing he has done to earn a reputation of being a cheap - or anything less than savvy - owner. He knows what he’s doing. 

Wulaw spends $$$$ on this, studies it all for hours, days, weeks !!!!

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

11 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

For an owner who has a team on a 5 year heater in the LCS, WS yada yada, you sure have a big stick up your ass about Jim Crane. Jesus, give it a rest. There is absolutely nothing he has done to earn a reputation of being a cheap - or anything less than savvy - owner. He knows what he’s doing. 

I’m never said cheap. I said this fetish with years is unnecessary and counter productive. He’s trying to do something that doesn’t happen with a competitive window. That’s it. It won’t always be like this. These are the golden years for the franchise and it isn’t likely to be like this ever again and it’s sure not likely to last for 2 decades. You just have to get more out of this run than the Atlanta Braves did. I want the Yankees deal. Win 4 titles in 5 years while you have this kind of core (or the Giants 3 in 5 years) and pay the piper when it’s done. That’s ok. But to think that we didn’t do everything we could while we had generational talent and traded being awesome for being merely good in the short term so we can chase above average 6 years down the road doesn’t make sense. Let it rip and then let it bottom and do it again. 

Edited December 2, 2021 by Wulaw Horn

[Planet Houston 4923]

But a 15 year deal for Correa in no way makes that any more likely than not signing him, smartly allocating resources elsewhere and trying to extend the window with the core that is signed long-term. Or, in a best case scenario, somehow getting Correa back on a 6-7 year deal. 

There is zero doubt he’s running it like a business and not a fanboy, but (and thank you for clarifying you’re not saying he’s cheap) those decisions have paid off so far and I believe him when he says he’s in it to extend the window and be ultra-competitive as long ad he’s owner. Is he lucky that Altuve basically told Boras to get it done? Probably. But other than a couple of less-than-catastrophic mistakes that happen to all teams like the the Gomez trade (fuck, as I type this I’m realizing that was incredibly catastrophic, but not for baseball reasons) he hasn’t approved any decisions that have been really poor in hindsight. Making the wrong decision on a 10 or 15 year contract, when you don’t have the TV revenue of the Dodgers or Yankees, can cripple a team long-term. 

 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

42 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

But a 15 year deal for Correa in no way makes that any more likely than not signing him, smartly allocating resources elsewhere and trying to extend the window with the core that is signed long-term. Or, in a best case scenario, somehow getting Correa back on a 6-7 year deal. 

There is zero doubt he’s running it like a business and not a fanboy, but (and thank you for clarifying you’re not saying he’s cheap) those decisions have paid off so far and I believe him when he says he’s in it to extend the window and be ultra-competitive as long ad he’s owner. Is he lucky that Altuve basically told Boras to get it done? Probably. But other than a couple of less-than-catastrophic mistakes that happen to all teams like the the Gomez trade (fuck, as I type this I’m realizing that was incredibly catastrophic, but not for baseball reasons) he hasn’t approved any decisions that have been really poor in hindsight. Making the wrong decision on a 10 or 15 year contract, when you don’t have the TV revenue of the Dodgers or Yankees, can cripple a team long-term. 

 

Aces can and do get cracked and I get that. The best team doesn’t always win the World Series and it’s almost as much luck involved as winning the NCAA tournament. 
what I really want for the Astros is to be the best team in baseball.  
we were that in 2019 and didn’t win a World Series and I’ve made my peace with that. Im just passionate about wanting to be the best team in 2022 and 2023 bc I think that’s on the table, but I don’t think Crane is playing it right by not going for that. I love awesome. I love the idea of being the best. My UT football fandom is satiated by 2005- I won’t ever probably root for a football team that great again and I will always have those memories and appreciate that.  It sustains through the hard times. 
I feel like Crane is trading greatness i. The short term for the idea of having a “chip and a chair” in 2027. Maybe that’s the right call. Probably is from a business perspective if I’m being honest. I just don’t want to be the cardinals of the last 6 or 8 years. I want to be the team that pushed all the chips in as often as they could for as long as they could and then rebuild the fucker when the core ran out. 
It’s a philosophical thing. 

[TonyTexas 10482]

 Let the paranoia and blame game begin. I’m guessing  that we’ll get tens of thousands of words from the usual suspects (Wulaw, Htown) on this  subject over the next couple of months

 

Edited December 2, 2021 by TonyTexas

[henrygandorf 29174]

zero chance he leaks news to his brother and then goes back on it. 

worth it though because nyy fans are getting their collective hopes up. 

[henrygandorf 29174]

also the cba only potentially affects the luxury tax threshold, which is a non-factor here. 

[Scraps 13542]

lock thread until agreement reached 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

1 hour ago, Scraps said:

lock thread until agreement reached 

Yeah, I'm out on baseball until there is progress made.  I'm not mad or anything unless it screws up games and/or screws up the season.  I guess, if I had a magic wand, here is what I'd like to see:

On Field stuff

1) Machine called balls and strikes

2) Pitch clock at 15 seconds (nobody has a bad word to say about that at the minor league they tried it in and they shaved something like 20 minutes off the game and contact rates and balls in play improved)

3) Get rid of 7 inning double headers

4) Get rid of those stupid extra inning rules- if teams can't play beyond 10 or 11 innings safely (I think they can) I would prefer a tie over the damn ghost man- which is not baseball.

Free Agency

27.5 years old for any international signee or high school signee

29.5 years old for any drafted player that doesn't enter out of college

Anyone who plays even 1 game in a year gets a year of service time.  Anyone with 7 years of service time becomes a FA if they get to that point in time before 27.5 or 29.5

Abolish the 40 man roster/60 day DL and 10 day IL.  You can pull anyone you want up from the minors at any time and send them down at any time

Abolish the rule 5 draft.  Total and complete minor league Free Agency at 27.5

Competitive Balance

Salary floor at 40% of revenue (league wide)

Tax at 52.5% of league revenues

(players currently get 46.3% of league revenue- so this would give both sides something - and it would narrow the haves and the have nots).

No expansion of playoffs

2 league expansion teams (Portland and Nashville). Move A's to Vegas. New Divisions.

East side- least side

East 1:  NYY, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore; 

East 2: Philly, NYMets, Washington Cleveland

South:  Tampa, Miami, Atlanta, Nashville

Midwest- Eastern Time Zone style:  Detroit, Cincinatti, Pittsburg, Milwaukee (need someone to round out the division)

West side- best side

Flyover Country- part 1:  St. Louis, Chicago, Rangers, Astros

Flyover Country part 2: White Sox, KC, Minnesota, Colorado

West 1:  SEA, Portland, Angels, Las Vegas

West 2: Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Dbacks.

 

That would have only 2 teams in the wrong time zone (Milwaukee and Colorado) and they would only be 1 hour off in their time zones.  I don't think there are any traditional rivalries that got split up.  Maybe the South ends up with some new rivalries out of this.  Play each team in your division 18 times (54).  Play each team in your region's other division (south and Midwest- eastern time zone style paired together) 12 times (48 games), play 2 divisions in the other league 6 times (48 games) play 2 divisions in the other league 6 times (48), play 1 division in the other conference 3 times (12).  Rotate divisions on the other side.

Division winners make the playoffs. 1 wild card team with best record in the league makes the playoffs.  Division winner with worst record plays wild card.

[Texas St. Armadillos 1381]

I like those divisions.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

3 minutes ago, Texas St. Armadillos said:

I like those divisions.

The players should love it b/c it cuts games out of time zone down to just a handful of games a year (like 24 for the Astros) and it cuts travel time and banging up the players by a shitload.  I'd personally like less west coast games myself but it doesn't make sense for the Astros to be in the Eastern Conference.  All west coast games featuring non west coast opponents to start at 6:00 local time. All Saturday games not in September to start no later than 5:00 local time. Once college football season starts can push back to 6:00 local time on Saturdays.  Once NFL starts can push back to afternoon window games on Sundays.  No series outside your time zone once September starts.  

[Scraps 13542]

Folks....now we have a new post we will hear about in 2027 still from Mr. Wulaw!  

Remember when........

Lol just fucking with you 

[IDIOTsavant 8440]

1 hour ago, Scraps said:

Folks....now we have a new post we will hear about in 2027 still from Mr. Wulaw!  

Remember when........

Lol just fucking with you 

I'm here for any and all of the "I told you so"s if I don't have to keep my old ass up for west coast games on the regular.