2021-2022 Astros Offseason Thread

[WBT 20422]

There will be a lockout starting on the 1st but I'm choosing to think it gets resolved a couple of weeks before spring training, mostly because I don't want to consider the alternative.

[tx 3 putt 76401]

8 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Also to your part about "nothing can happen during a lockout".....that is incorrect, but yeah nothing probably would happen

It's important to note that even during a work stoppage, trades and signings and all that can happen. Jack McDowell was traded and Tony Gwynn signed a new contract extension during the 1994-95 work stoppage, for example. Now, just because transactions can happen doesn't mean they will.

we should sign those two 

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

we should sign those two 

Despite being dead for over seven years, Tony Gwynn would probably hit better than half our lineup during the WS.

[Scraps 13542]

I am probably way more optimistic than most of you that a deal gets done way sooner than anticipated

[TonyTexas 10482]

26 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Also to your part about "nothing can happen during a lockout".....that is incorrect, but yeah nothing probably would happen

It's important to note that even during a work stoppage, trades and signings and all that can happen. Jack McDowell was traded and Tony Gwynn signed a new contract extension during the 1994-95 work stoppage, for example. Now, just because transactions can happen doesn't mean they will.

94/95 was a strike not a lockout. I think Manfred can issue a decree to the clubs to freeze signings. At the very least, expect collusion to delay transactions until a new CBA is signed. 

Edited November 4, 2021 by TonyTexas

[DaysOff 7853]

JFC the money. I remember when Nolan got a million bucks to eat 300 innings.

[Guadaloopy 10926]

29 minutes ago, WBT said:

There will be a lockout starting on the 1st but I'm choosing to think it gets resolved a couple of weeks before spring training, mostly because I don't want to consider the alternative.

I think that MLB remembers just how bad the backlash was after 94/95.  Hell, even I was a bit slow to come back around as a fan.  
 

I think a deal gets done at the last minute, maybe delaying the season a couple of weeks because the players won’t rush spring training after the COVID season experience.  

Edited November 4, 2021 by Guadaloopy

[Ojo Rojo 1906]

2 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

i was gonna say 6-180 or 7-200 so i think we're in the vicinity.

20 to 30 million per year is quite a large vicinity.

[tx 3 putt 76401]

Mlb and their owners aren’t the sharpest tools around 

[LCHorn 2585]

I’m expecting an international draft (re: the CBA), which will effectively neuter an advantage smarter clubs with better scouting/analytics have over teams like the Marlins and Royals.  One more way for MLB to look more like the NFL.  
 

After seeing all the SP names thrown around I don’t see why we don’t just re-sign Verlander, presuming those bridges aren’t burned.  I trust that option a lot more than hoping Robbie fucking Ray doesn’t turn back into a pumpkin who can’t find the strike zone.  

[TonyTexas 10482]

 

[Gourmand 7774]

 

[tx 3 putt 76401]

that's a bargain on yuli's deal 

[TonyTexas 10482]

Viva La Cuba!

 

[gurt 736]

Anybody else kinda worried about not having more power in the line up?  Brantley and Gurriel are already seeing drops in their power and I don't feel like any of the young (outside of Tucker) outfielders are gonna be more than around league avg slugging.  Bregman has been avg to below avg the last couple seasons.  It puts all the pressure on Yordan and Tuck to drive in runs, especially if we don't replace Correa with a plus batter.

[gurt 736]

Which we saw in some of the games in the WS, getting on base with a bunch of singles, but not able to score them 

[Scraps 13542]

4 minutes ago, gurt said:

Anybody else kinda worried about not having more power in the line up?  

Yes.

 

[mbtex 683]

Yet somehow we had the best offense in the league

[TonyTexas 10482]

26 minutes ago, gurt said:

Anybody else kinda worried about not having more power in the line up?

Meh. They were 9th in MLB regular season HR totals and only 1 from being tied for 6th. 3rd in doubles. 

Edited November 5, 2021 by TonyTexas

[henrygandorf 29178]

mike and yuli were singles hitters most of the year. that works when surrounded by our lineup. when bregs turned into a singles hitter, we were in trouble. 

[gurt 736]

Don’t get me wrong, it’s more important to get better starting pitching. But a good amount of the time we were scoring on station to station hitting, which is hard to maintain.
That’s why I hope we go after Story or Semien to replace Correa.

[Ojo Rojo 1906]

I predict what will actually happen is that Click will pick up 2-4 free agents that no one has ever heard of (not top of the heap guys, anyway). We'll roll into the season basically with what we have now.  No Correa, no JV, no Greinke, no Graveman.  We'll have really good 1-6 hitters, assuming Yuli and Brantley don't fall off a cliff and Bregman finds himself.  From there it will be all about what kind of seasons some of these guys have.  Will one of Chas/Meyers/Siri separate themselves and become the everyday CF and mash at the plate?  I'd like it if that happened.  Will Pena be our next everyday SS?  If not him, then who will it be? As for pitching, what kind of seasons will our starters have?  Will LMJ stay healthy for a whole season?  There's a lot of variance in what the team's record will be by the All Star Break and trade deadline.  If we're in the hunt and we're buyers then I would expect Click to add big, expensive pieces at that time to try to win another series.  If he adds guys with some team control for a couple of years, we could be setting up for another 2019 roster situation.  But I don't really expect any big acquisitions over the winter. 

[Storm the Field 5273]

1 hour ago, gurt said:

Anybody else kinda worried about not having more power in the line up?  Brantley and Gurriel are already seeing drops in their power and I don't feel like any of the young (outside of Tucker) outfielders are gonna be more than around league avg slugging.  Bregman has been avg to below avg the last couple seasons.  It puts all the pressure on Yordan and Tuck to drive in runs, especially if we don't replace Correa with a plus batter.

Yeah, we definitely need more right-handed power. Would be nice if that's Bregman again, but can't just hope.

[Storm the Field 5273]

Spitballing here, as one does in the off-season, but if we did decide to add some RH power to the OF, Castellanos would be worth a look. Just opted out of his deal with Reds, but that probably means he's expecting a major deal.

[Mo Horn 8807]

1 hour ago, gurt said:

Anybody else kinda worried about not having more power in the line up?  Brantley and Gurriel are already seeing drops in their power and I don't feel like any of the young (outside of Tucker) outfielders are gonna be more than around league avg slugging.  Bregman has been avg to below avg the last couple seasons.  It puts all the pressure on Yordan and Tuck to drive in runs, especially if we don't replace Correa with a plus batter.

Myers hit 22 HRs this year, and 6 after he was called up. I can see him in the upper 20s or even 30s.

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

2 hours ago, gurt said:

Anybody else kinda worried about not having more power in the line up?  Brantley and Gurriel are already seeing drops in their power and I don't feel like any of the young (outside of Tucker) outfielders are gonna be more than around league avg slugging.  Bregman has been avg to below avg the last couple seasons.  It puts all the pressure on Yordan and Tuck to drive in runs, especially if we don't replace Correa with a plus batter.

Yes. I’m petrified of this and we got out homered bigly in the WS and that was the difference. It’s why I’m on the trade Brantley and don’t sign any pitchers bandwagon. You could literally offers 3 big bats if you did that (Semien, Bryant and Marte). We need more power. Getting below average thump ouT of LF and 1B isn’t a problem if you have Correa at short and Springer in CF. We don’t anymore. Can’t afford to have singles slap hitters I’d you don’t have power elsewhere. 

1 hour ago, Ojo Rojo said:

I predict what will actually happen is that Click will pick up 2-4 free agents that no one has ever heard of (not top of the heap guys, anyway). We'll roll into the season basically with what we have now.  No Correa, no JV, no Greinke, no Graveman.  We'll have really good 1-6 hitters, assuming Yuli and Brantley don't fall off a cliff and Bregman finds himself.  From there it will be all about what kind of seasons some of these guys have.  Will one of Chas/Meyers/Siri separate themselves and become the everyday CF and mash at the plate?  I'd like it if that happened.  Will Pena be our next everyday SS?  If not him, then who will it be? As for pitching, what kind of seasons will our starters have?  Will LMJ stay healthy for a whole season?  There's a lot of variance in what the team's record will be by the All Star Break and trade deadline.  If we're in the hunt and we're buyers then I would expect Click to add big, expensive pieces at that time to try to win another series.  If he adds guys with some team control for a couple of years, we could be setting up for another 2019 roster situation.  But I don't really expect any big acquisitions over the winter. 

This is my big concern. We have 70 to spend with JV, Greinke and Correa moving on, and we could have 105 or 110 to spend if we dealt Brantley, Odo and Baez. I expect us to do nothing creative, go cheap/mid tier and take a big step back. I really hope I’m wrong but what you said is my nightmare fuel. I need the Astros to be good with UT football being the suck. At least UT hoops should be awesome I guess. 

[mbtex 683]

We did score the most runs in MLB in 2021. I think with Meyers will produce giving the chance surely better than platoon of Straw and McCormick. Hopefully Bregman returns to form. I think offense will be fine. More concerned with having a stable top of the rotation starter. 

[Ojo Rojo 1906]

27 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yes. I’m petrified of this and we got out homered bigly in the WS and that was the difference. It’s why I’m on the trade Brantley and don’t sign any pitchers bandwagon. You could literally offers 3 big bats if you did that (Semien, Bryant and Marte). We need more power. Getting below average thump ouT of LF and 1B isn’t a problem if you have Correa at short and Springer in CF. We don’t anymore. Can’t afford to have singles slap hitters I’d you don’t have power elsewhere. 

This is my big concern. We have 70 to spend with JV, Greinke and Correa moving on, and we could have 105 or 110 to spend if we dealt Brantley, Odo and Baez. I expect us to do nothing creative, go cheap/mid tier and take a big step back. I really hope I’m wrong but what you said is my nightmare fuel. I need the Astros to be good with UT football being the suck. At least UT hoops should be awesome I guess. 

I don't think this is really a nightmare scenario. We've got a top 3-4 team going into next season without doing shit. Is it a "superteam?"  Is it a WS lock?  No and no.  But it doesn't have to be. What I described is a "spend smart and keep your powder dry" approach.  Big money, big year free agent deals often don't work out and can cripple a team.  Making big acquisitions during the season, once the team has proven that it's a playoff contender, and with some team control has been the Astros method. It's better to make a big investment when you have a lot more assurance that the investment is going to pay off.  It has worked, you can't argue that.

[TonyTexas 10482]

Recap of Astros in the fall league highlighting Korey Lee

https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-arizona-fall-league-overview-2021

[HtownHorn 14488]

3 hours ago, gurt said:

Which we saw in some of the games in the WS, getting on base with a bunch of singles, but not able to score them 

Well when you are trying to pull every pitch thrown to you, you aren't going to hit a lot out of the ballpark. Atlanta feasting on the outside corner to our batters, and were happy to watch them pull it into a weak contact grounder.

I'm fine with Dusty coming back for another season, the rest of the coaching staff needs to be turned over, though Strom leaving is a big loss.

Brantley should be a strictly platoon player. He's splits against LHP do not justify him having much starts against them.

Edited November 5, 2021 by HtownHorn

[HtownHorn 14488]

2 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Spitballing here, as one does in the off-season, but if we did decide to add some RH power to the OF, Castellanos would be worth a look. Just opted out of his deal with Reds, but that probably means he's expecting a major deal.

I'd like him, but his best fit would be DH/1B. No ABs there for next season.

[formermav43 4599]

Meyers/McCormick are projected by fangraphs for a combined 2 WAR. Marte is projected for 3.1. Yeah they’re just projections, but that would seem to be a really poor use of funds. And if Myers isn’t just a flash in the pan and Marte starts to decline, it’s even worse going forward.

[henrygandorf 29178]

1 hour ago, mbtex said:

We did score the most runs in MLB in 2021. I think with Meyers will produce giving the chance surely better than platoon of Straw and McCormick. Hopefully Bregman returns to form. I think offense will be fine. More concerned with having a stable top of the rotation starter. 

i think meyers has a really good chance of replicating ~correa type numbers - .280 / 22 / 75 or so.  plus some steals and stellar cf.  i don't think people realize what an upgrade that would be over the straw+machete combo we had much of the year doing next to nothing at the plate with zero power.  we really could've used meyers in the last 2 postseason series.

1 hour ago, Ojo Rojo said:

Is it a "superteam?"

fuck superteams.  last april, every power ranking had a clear 1st tier of 3 "superteams" - the dodgers, the padres, and the yankees.

between them they won zero divisions, one playoff series, and one wildcard game, with a playoff record of 5-7.  woohoo.  and btw, that was before one of the superteams added scherzer and turner, what a joke.

i agree that the "astros way" is to sign a couple of guys and wait til the deadline.  that makes me a little nervous, and i'm hoping for 1 splash signing along with 2 steady upside types, with our eye on bassitt types at the deadline.  he's not making big money, so you could deal for him now, unlike a greinke type where it makes sense to wait.

[Scraps 13542]

Dusty confirmed 1 year deal 

Click said hoping to bring everybody back 

Crane said budget for team will be at top close to max like it has been.  If we have to make a move to close out something they have always done that.  Goal is to win championships and win every single year.  

Edited November 5, 2021 by Scraps

[OB3 3608]

 

[Scraps 13542]

Awesome thing I heard was Crane said the area across from ballpark they had bought is going to turn into a ballpark village like St Louis or Atlanta.  

After visiting St Louis this year I can say that would be amazing.  

[UTPhil2006 3792]

7 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Awesome thing I heard was Crane said the area across from ballpark they had bought is going to turn into a ballpark village like St Louis or Atlanta.  

After visiting St Louis this year I can say that would be amazing.  

Gonna be awesome in 2024

[TonyTexas 10482]

18 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Awesome thing I heard was Crane said the area across from ballpark they had bought is going to turn into a ballpark village like St Louis or Atlanta.  

After visiting St Louis this year I can say that would be amazing.  

Where is this area as it relates to the park? South I hope. GR Brown could give those businesses some off season traffic. 

[tx 3 putt 76401]

21 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Awesome thing I heard was Crane said the area across from ballpark they had bought is going to turn into a ballpark village like St Louis or Atlanta.  

After visiting St Louis this year I can say that would be amazing.  

 

cubs have something very similar, on the third base side

[Scraps 13542]

1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

cubs have something very similar, on the third base side

meh.  cubs isn't even close to how St Louis is set up to me

[Scraps 13542]

3 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Where is this area as it relates to the park? South I hope. GR Brown could give those businesses some off season traffic. 

Directly across Texas where Home Plate and Bus used to be, along with that lot where the old house used to be on that they moved.  

So yeah in between MMP and GRB 

[Mez2 4021]

Bring back the Bus


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[Storm the Field 5273]

17 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

Where is this area as it relates to the park? South I hope. GR Brown could give those businesses some off season traffic. 

Quote

 

In 2019 the club purchased 1.738 acres of land surrounding the downtown ballpark with intentions of building a mixed-use development. Crane on Friday referenced the over $100 million the team has spent renovating areas like the Gallagher Club and Ultra Club inside the stadium, and said the next goal is to create an entertainment district in the area around Union Station and the now-closed Home Plate Bar & Grill.

The Texas Department of Transportation’s plan to reroute a portion U.S. 59 and Interstate 45 underground on the stadium’s southwest side, part of the North Houston Highway Improvement Project, will also clear room for the Astros to build.

“That whole area will turn into an entertainment area like a ballpark village like the Atlanta Braves, like the Cardinals, and some of the other teams,” Crane said. “We think that will bring a lot of people downtown. The area continues to improve around us. When we came in there was an old boarded up building where those apartments are. So I think this is going to be the spot. If they get the freeway done and it goes underground that’s going to be a park, so this area’s going to be a primetime area down the road for everybody to come down and enjoy the ballpark."

 

I've long assumed Crane was planning to build a residential tower with street-level bars and dining on the old BUS/Home Plate parcel and that adjacent lot where the old historic house was. Makes way too much sense.

[Hank Chinaski 6310]

19 hours ago, formermav43 said:

Meyers/McCormick are projected by fangraphs for a combined 2 WAR. Marte is projected for 3.1. Yeah they’re just projections, but that would seem to be a really poor use of funds. And if Myers isn’t just a flash in the pan and Marte starts to decline, it’s even worse going forward.

Agreed, it’s the same reasoning that led the club to sit tight with Straw as the CF last season - which proved to be the right move compared to signing one of the guys that was available. If the club projects Meyers to be a 2-win guy at the league minimum, they’re sure as hell going to stick with that over a 3-win guy at $15mm. It’s better value.

I’d like to see a bit more pitching depth/upgrade. I wouldn’t expect any major splash signings though.

[tx 3 putt 76401]

2war as is, there’s a chance that both improve

[Snake Diggity 4614]

Astros have enough money to add 1 big contract, 1 2nd tier contract, and 2-3 3rd tier contracts.  They have upper level pitching depth and surplus 2nd tier CF prospects they can trade.  They have potential needs at SS, CF, C, SP1, Setup man, 13th position player, and 13th pitcher.  
 

Hypothetical offseason:

Re-sign Verlander and Marwin

Trade for Byron Buxton, Taylor Rogers, and Mike Zunino (would likely cost one of Meyers/Siri and 3-4 2nd tier pitching prospects)

Wait out the FA market to bargain hunt for SS, RP, SP

 

Opening Day Roster:

CF Buxton

LF Brantley

2B Altuve

DH Alvarez

3B Bregman

RF Tucker

1B Gurriel

C Zunino

SS Pena

Bench: Diaz, Maldonado, McCormick, Marwin

Rotation: Verlander, McCullers, Valdez, Garcia, Odorizzi

 Bullpen: Urquidy, Javier, James, Stanek, Maton, Baez, Rogers, Pressly 

 

First big chip(s) will fall next week as they see if JV signs the QO and have to make moves to prep for the Rule 5.  
 

They project for 90+ wins with the roster they already have.  They have the resources to field their 2nd best team ever (next to 2019).

Guys that interest me on the FA market:

CF options: Marte, Bryant, Canha, Pham, Conforto (all but Marte would be 1 year gap filler in CF then move to LF to replace Brantley once Leon/Meyers/Siri/etc show they’re ready to be 3+ win player)

SS options: Correa, Semien, Story, Baez, Taylor (only if their demand does not develop and they want somewhere to land to win a ring and reset their market)

Bench options: Villar, Leury Garcia, Miller, Owings, Marwin

SP options: Verlander, Ray, Gausman, Wood, Eduardo Rodriguez

RP options: Iglesias, McHugh, Chafin, Knebel, Givens

Potential trade targets: Zunino, Contreras, Buxton, Ketel Marte, Hader, Rogers, Marquez, Castillo

Edited November 6, 2021 by Snake Diggity

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Astros have enough money to add 1 big contract, 1 2nd tier contract, and 2-3 3rd tier contracts.  They have upper level pitching depth and surplus 2nd tier CF prospects they can trade.  They have potential needs at SS, CF, C, SP1, Setup man, 13th position player, and 13th pitcher.  
 

Hypothetical offseason:

Re-sign Verlander and Marwin

Trade for Byron Buxton, Taylor Rogers, and Mike Zunino (would likely cost one of Meyers/Siri and 3-4 2nd tier pitching prospects)

Wait out the FA market to bargain hunt for SS, RP, SP

 

Opening Day Roster:

CF Buxton

LF Brantley

2B Altuve

DH Alvarez

3B Bregman

RF Tucker

1B Gurriel

C Zunino

SS Pena

Bench: Diaz, Maldonado, McCormick, Marwin

Rotation: Verlander, McCullers, Valdez, Garcia, Odorizzi

 Bullpen: Urquidy, Javier, James, Stanek, Maton, Baez, Rogers, Pressly 

 

First big chip(s) will fall next week as they see if JV signs the QO and have to make moves to prep for the Rule 5.  
 

They project for 90+ wins with the roster they already have.  They have the resources to field their 2nd best team ever (next to 2019).

Guys that interest me on the FA market:

CF options: Marte, Bryant, Canha, Pham, Conforto (all but Marte would be 1 year gap filler in CF then move to LF to replace Brantley once Leon/Meyers/Siri/etc show they’re ready to be 3+ win player)

SS options: Correa, Semien, Story, Baez, Taylor (only if their demand does not develop and they want somewhere to land to win a ring and reset their market)

Bench options: Villar, Leury Garcia, Miller, Owings, Marwin

SP options: Verlander, Ray, Gausman, Wood, Eduardo Rodriguez

RP options: Iglesias, McHugh, Chafin, Knebel, Givens

Potential trade targets: Zunino, Contreras, Buxton, Ketel Marte, Hader, Rogers, Marquez, Castillo

As always like the way you think. Your first 4 are the top 4 I want to sign (not all, but 3 out of 4 of Marte, Bryant, Correa and Semien). If we got 3 out of those 4 I think we might be better than the 2019 team. Better lineup, worse pitching, that’s a potential 110 win team though. 
buxton is intriguing. It’s only 1 year so that should keep the prospect cost- if not light at least not insane. 
McHugh for sure in the bullpen is what I want on the small/mid tier move. 

[tx 3 putt 76401]

Y’all lost your shit when we traded toro, can’t imagine if we traded mayers 

[Gourmand 7774]

 

[Jshep34 2304]

Think CC turns it down based on total value. Its a fair offer to player and team future. It allows team to keep window open and correa to chase another big payday after 5 years

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