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2021-2022 Astros Offseason Thread

Planet Houston

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Planet Houston
Planet Houston

Fuck the haters. We will be back again next year. Discuss. 

Jshep34
Jshep34

Lilshep collecting more hardware. All american games. Compete against kids from all over country. He went 5 for 6. 2 walks. Stole 8 bases. Played error free defense. Possibly selected for national t

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8349

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One of the joys of the season was how little suspense* there was over infield grounders -- somebody was fixin' to be out, if not two somebodys. They were going to pick it clean and if their throw to 1b was a little off, we have a guy with the reflexes of an NHL goalie.

 

*Uthey let you know the ball was hit Altuve's way....but if he is by far the weakest link in your infield defense, you have a very very fucking good infield defense.

It was like our 2005 DBs. Tarell Brown -- a guy who went on to play 10 years in the NFL -- was our weak spot.

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Scraps

Scraps 13542

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And probably no one will sign till the CBA is dealt with I assume?
I mean that would be the logical assumption.

The 14 players that were offered a QA have to take or turn it down by the 17th.

I would guess only like 2 of them really have a decision to make and the rest will turn it down
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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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The more I think about it the more excited I get for next season.  Astros have 4 significant needs: 2 bats (at CF, SS, or C) and 2 arms (an ace and an elite RP).  They have the payroll capacity to shop at the top of the free agent market for 2 of those, and they have the farm assets to trade for the other 2; Pena by himself is a massive trade chip, while their surplus of young CF (Meyers/Siri/McCormick) and upper level pitching should be plenty to package together to acquire a really good player.

Provided everyone is healthy come opening day I think the Astros 2022 roster will be their 2nd most talented ever, next to 2019.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29177

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7 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

The more I think about it the more excited I get for next season.  Astros have 4 significant needs: 2 bats (at CF, SS, or C) and 2 arms (an ace and an elite RP).  They have the payroll capacity to shop at the top of the free agent market for 2 of those, and they have the farm assets to trade for the other 2; Pena by himself is a massive trade chip, while their surplus of young CF (Meyers/Siri/McCormick) and upper level pitching should be plenty to package together to acquire a really good player.

Provided everyone is healthy come opening day I think the Astros 2022 roster will be their 2nd most talented ever, next to 2019.

i think your instincts are correct.  4 players away sounds right, but i wouldn't count on more than 2 in the offseason (though i wouldn't be surprised if we went after at least one reclamation project from the fa sp ranks).  what i'd love to see is to target 1-2 of those sp that still have top end velocity and see if we can turn them into a 2 inning relief piece. 

if you're a regular on these threads, you're probably sick of me talking about the one thing dusty rarely does that drives me nuts, though it's likely due to personnel, and that's throw a reliever for 4-6+ outs.  javier became that guy, kind of on accident, and if he continued his dominance til the end of the world series, the parade may have been in houston.  some hitting would've also helped.  at least a couple names on that list could fill that role.

if we see semien as a non-ss, then i would assume he's out.  if that's the case, i think we have to use the system to fill ss, as i don't love the other options.  weirdly enough, i think javy baez might make the most sense, if he would stop chasing so many fucking pitches.  he has the attitude and fielding prowess already, and he's crazy affordable considering what he's capable of on both sides.  i could see him being an immediate fit.  to add power back, we're going to strike out more.  it's just the truth.

so if we don't go big on a ss, then it has to be stroman or ray, and i've never liked stroman.  so maybe we throw money at ray, that would be my preference.  that fg article says 4 years but that seems really low.  if i'm ray's agent i ask for 6 and i probably get it.  i don't mind pitchers in the 32-38 range at all, so 6 is fine by me.  like i said previously, adding an ace makes all 5 sp slots better and helps the bullpen.  it's a roster changing move.

i don't think there's a big bullpen piece out there to add that makes financial sense, but i would like to see us add a couple guys that fit our mold, and hopefully one is a lefty.  i would like to keep raley, but i can't seem to figure out his contract situation.  spotrac has him locked up but i don't think that's right.

i think you try to trade for someone like bassitt mid-season and let new ace-lance-framber-garcia-urqidy-odorizzi get you to the trade deadline in good shape.  if our bullpen has javier-stanek-maton-pressly + a mchugh reunion, then we're in first place in july and looking to add.

i think a 4th of or utility infielder type makes a lot of sense.  bryant would be great but i think he'll get too much money and i don't even know where he'd contribute in 2022 as he's not an exact fit.  i do like the idea that someone could share dh/lf with yordan and also help out at first once brantley/yuli are gone, but that's a 2023 problem. 

 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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4 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i think your instincts are correct.  4 players away sounds right, but i wouldn't count on more than 2 in the offseason (though i wouldn't be surprised if we went after at least one reclamation project from the fa sp ranks).  what i'd love to see is to target 1-2 of those sp that still have top end velocity and see if we can turn them into a 2 inning relief piece. 

if you're a regular on these threads, you're probably sick of me talking about the one thing dusty rarely does that drives me nuts, though it's likely due to personnel, and that's throw a reliever for 4-6+ outs.  javier became that guy, kind of on accident, and if he continued his dominance til the end of the world series, the parade may have been in houston.  some hitting would've also helped.  at least a couple names on that list could fill that role.

if we see semien as a non-ss, then i would assume he's out.  if that's the case, i think we have to use the system to fill ss, as i don't love the other options.  weirdly enough, i think javy baez might make the most sense, if he would stop chasing so many fucking pitches.  he has the attitude and fielding prowess already, and he's crazy affordable considering what he's capable of on both sides.  i could see him being an immediate fit.  to add power back, we're going to strike out more.  it's just the truth.

so if we don't go big on a ss, then it has to be stroman or ray, and i've never liked stroman.  so maybe we throw money at ray, that would be my preference.  that fg article says 4 years but that seems really low.  if i'm ray's agent i ask for 6 and i probably get it.  i don't mind pitchers in the 32-38 range at all, so 6 is fine by me.  like i said previously, adding an ace makes all 5 sp slots better and helps the bullpen.  it's a roster changing move.

i don't think there's a big bullpen piece out there to add that makes financial sense, but i would like to see us add a couple guys that fit our mold, and hopefully one is a lefty.  i would like to keep raley, but i can't seem to figure out his contract situation.  spotrac has him locked up but i don't think that's right.

i think you try to trade for someone like bassitt mid-season and let new ace-lance-framber-garcia-urqidy-odorizzi get you to the trade deadline in good shape.  if our bullpen has javier-stanek-maton-pressly + a mchugh reunion, then we're in first place in july and looking to add.

i think a 4th of or utility infielder type makes a lot of sense.  bryant would be great but i think he'll get too much money and i don't even know where he'd contribute in 2022 as he's not an exact fit.  i do like the idea that someone could share dh/lf with yordan and also help out at first once brantley/yuli are gone, but that's a 2023 problem. 

 

Not a lot (anything?) to disagree with here.  Bryant should be in and Brantley should be out.  Then, Bryant takes over for Yuli next year if one of the OF guys pops or stays in LF for the duration of the contract.  In the meantime he can DH some when Yordan plays left field, he can play 1b some when Yuli rests, while getting 110 or 120 games at LF.  Going forward it would make a lot of sense to get a right handed left fielder to pair with Yordong that mashes left handed pitchers.  We just can't run it back with a lesser SS, Yuli and Brantley without pop and a Meyers/Chaz Michael Michaels platoon in CF with no bat at catcher.  You then become elite at only 3 positions on the field and that's RF, 2b and 3b- and Bregman hasn't exactly been super elite at 3b offensively, it just doesn't work.  

Ray for 6 years is a gamble but then again big money for Ray period is a gamble- be it 4 or 6 (and I think you are right that he gets 6). Age isn't what I'm worried about with him.  Bryant at 8/200 makes a ton of sense.  I saw guess of 6/144 or something like that- I think he gets more and should get more.  

Ditto completely on Stroman being  a hard pass.  Bassitt mid-season would be great but Billy might want to not even carry the payroll on the books- that might be my call before I engage Ray's agent (but you can argue of course for "why not both") too seriously.  So- maybe now.

I'm just afraid we will get Story and 2 Odorizzi type reclamations and call it a day. And that will be gutting.

Hope a McHugh reunion is in the works. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29177

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35 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not a lot (anything?) to disagree with here.  Bryant should be in and Brantley should be out.  Then, Bryant takes over for Yuli next year if one of the OF guys pops or stays in LF for the duration of the contract.  In the meantime he can DH some when Yordan plays left field, he can play 1b some when Yuli rests, while getting 110 or 120 games at LF.  Going forward it would make a lot of sense to get a right handed left fielder to pair with Yordong that mashes left handed pitchers.  We just can't run it back with a lesser SS, Yuli and Brantley without pop and a Meyers/Chaz Michael Michaels platoon in CF with no bat at catcher.  You then become elite at only 3 positions on the field and that's RF, 2b and 3b- and Bregman hasn't exactly been super elite at 3b offensively, it just doesn't work.  

Ray for 6 years is a gamble but then again big money for Ray period is a gamble- be it 4 or 6 (and I think you are right that he gets 6). Age isn't what I'm worried about with him.  Bryant at 8/200 makes a ton of sense.  I saw guess of 6/144 or something like that- I think he gets more and should get more.  

Ditto completely on Stroman being  a hard pass.  Bassitt mid-season would be great but Billy might want to not even carry the payroll on the books- that might be my call before I engage Ray's agent (but you can argue of course for "why not both") too seriously.  So- maybe now.

I'm just afraid we will get Story and 2 Odorizzi type reclamations and call it a day. And that will be gutting.

Hope a McHugh reunion is in the works. 

i think story gets a pretty big deal.  not correa/seager big, but pretty close.  story is an example of why i think baez would make more sense.  i also think story settles into a .255 / 24 / 75 type of guy.  no thanks.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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From the top 50 list (players I want to see us add- obviously we can't add all of them). I'm skipping guys that don't want to play for us, guys I don't like, guys that aren't realistic without being particularly clever).

Guys I want from the top 50 list

Correa (8/243- I think this goes way higher- can't imagine he doesn't get 300+)

Semien (4/113). Here's another one I think is low. I think he gets 5/150.  Clemens has his getting 4/120- so I'm in the right neighborhood I think.  This is who I would sign if we aren't getting Correa which looks likely.  Either guy is a 30 mil per year contract. I'd rather have 10 years of Correa with 5 at prime and 5 at late prime/washed up than late prime and washed up Semien (he's 4 years older than Carlos) but apparently we think that there is a magic 5 year deal regardless of age, so whatever.  If Astros don't view him as a SS obviously a non starter.

Bryant- (6 for 160- median crowdsource).  He's 30. I think someone gives him 8 for 200 ish (Clemens had that as his number). I think that someone should be us.  25 million per for a guy with good plate discipline, acceptable pop and 200 iso is going rate.  He fixes a lot of holes for us.  LF, 1b in the future, he can DH and not feel like you are losing out there.  His K rate isn't bad.  He's 30. On the back half of his contract he's going to be a DH/1b but he's got good old man skills with the power and batting eye and he will be fine at 1b which is one place we don't have a replacement lined up anywhere in the system. It is 6 years overdue as we should have taken him instead of Appel. That one hurts.  Still.  He wouldn't even have made us better to possibly lose out on Tucker/Bregman etc by sucking.  His ETA would have been perfect. I have to think we'd have won at least 1 more world series with him instead of Appel.  

Robbie Ray (4/112) Like HG- I bet he gets 6.  I also bet he gets 160-170. I'd probably do that.  He's the best SP on the market that would play here. You need to get that or you aren't really upgrading.  He's a risk. If someone else signs him for 4/72 (that's the median crowdsource on Fan Graphs and it's not us I will murder James Click). 

Starling Marte.  3.57 (64). Clemens has 2/50.  My wag was 3/85 or something.  I also had no idea on that.  3 war player projection at CF and solves our OF situation.  Elite SB.  Better ISO than Brantley.  More premium position than Brantley.  Yes please. Fan graphs actually mention us here. 

Nick Castellanos.  (4/64).  He's a defensive butcher with a 200 iso as a projection.  He's basically your stand in for Brantley at the same price, only instead of remarking on "what a professional AB" you say- how far did that ball go?  

NOah Syndergaard (1/18).  Qualifying offer for a guy who could be a TOR ace?  Yes please. We lit 33 million on fire with JV and might have won a WS with a little better luck.  This is a gamble worth taking if those are the terms. Who knows what you get after the surgery.

Carlos Rodon (4/76). His stuff is really good. I'd do this in a heartbeat.  He could be a TOR guys.  Injury history is scary. If you sign him he and LMJ should be on the same plan and that plan should be to throw around 100 innings each before the playoffs.  Your rotation then becomes LMJ/Rodon as 1 starter on a job share, Framber as a work horse, Urquidy, Garcia, whoever wins the Javier plus the kids match up. Trade Odorizi.  Then, playoff time if they are both right you have a really quality rotation of Lance/Rodon/Framber/Urquidy with Javier and Garcia as guys to come in and bridge a game if needed.  Yes please.

JV- That ship has passed.  Clemens has him taking the QO. I'd rather have him as the QO than Thor, but I'd be ecstatic with either of them.

Kyle Scwarber.  (4/60). Again, I'd rather this than Brantley.  250 iso.  BB are up.  Average is pitiful. I want a LF who can mash.  He'd work.  Also at 29 he might still have some upside.  He could play 1B after Yuli moves on.

Yan Gomes (1 or 2 years at 6 million per).  Get rid of the worst bat in the majors with an above average catcher that has an almost league average wRC+, pair him with Castro and call it a day.  This will never happen b/c our FO loves Machete.  I have to repeat over and over and over again- they know shit I don't know) and call it a day. But I'd love this move.  

Nelson Cruz.  (1/14).  He's 41. It's a 1 year deal. It's worth it.  I'd rather make this move (or one like it) at the trade deadline.  It means Yordon has to play more in the field.  He's just a much better offensive player than Brantley for slightly less money.  

Jon Gray (3/45). Pretty durable dude. I can't imagine any pitcher not getting better leaving Coors.  Has to be so much easier.  At age 30 he has some upside.  I'd much rather pay him 13 than pay Odo 9 or whatever. 

Collin Mchugh (1/5).  Ben Clemens has him at 2/24.  This seems insane to me.  Median Crowdsource is 1/5.  Avg crowdsource is 1.5/8.3 years.  2/10 and get one of my favorite Astros back. 2/24 and tip your hat to McHugh for getting paid and figure that won't be us. 

Kluber (1/10). Sure.  Having lots of guys that can start makes a contract like this a decent gamble.  Ok as a reclamation with upside (only want 1 reclamation total)

Greinke (1/12) Nope. But I will miss him.  We don't need to pay for 150 innings of league average. That's valuable to someone but not us.

Graveman (2/13). I'd probably do that if we can't get McHugh for 2/10.  I'm fine with them not as well.  

 

Super unlikely for whatever reason- but cool if it happens:

Scherzer- doesn't want to play here

Freeman- got to be a Brave I'd think.

Stroman.  Barf. Never wanted.  That doesn't change at all now.  Nope. NO way.  

Trevor Story (6/150. Shoot me now if we do this. Coors field special. I fully expect this to be the way we go b/c the sports Gods hate me lately)

Javy Baez (4/80). Nope, don't do it.  94 projected wRC+  If we are going to go with a below average hitting SS I'd damn sure rather do it with Pena and use that 20 million somewhere else. I might hate this move even more than Story if it happened.  

Kershaw- I'd rather self immolate or castrate myself

Iglesian/Jansen (15 million per). I'm going to be really pissed if we spend $15 million on a reliever. I can't even fathom this happening so no need to get my blood pressure up.

 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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17 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i think story gets a pretty big deal.  not correa/seager big, but pretty close.  story is an example of why i think baez would make more sense.  i also think story settles into a .255 / 24 / 75 type of guy.  no thanks.

Exact same page on Story. Pray that's not us. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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7 minutes ago, Scraps said:

I would overpay Rodon for a 1 yr deal.  

 

Just now, tx 3 putt said:

 

yes please 

What does that even mean?  1/24 or something?  4/72 as the consensus doesn't seem particularly high but that's 18 per. If he shortens it to 1 year I'd have to think that means he wants at least a 35% premium to do so....

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76399

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https://sports.yahoo.com/predicting-where-top-25-mlb-150754024.html

 

CARLOS CORREA: TIGERS

Correa will be determined to get a record-setting contract, and if the Yankees are indeed out of the mix that could lead him to Detroit, where the Tigers are prepared to spend big to get one of the star shortstops. Correa probably would prefer to sign with a contender, but there may not be other teams willing to give him more than the $341 million the Mets gave Francisco Lindor. And the Tigers do seem to have a bright future with some very good young pitching.

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76399

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JUSTIN VERLANDER: YANKEES

This is actually a gamble the Mets should consider taking, but they may feel the need to go for more certainty to fill their starting pitching needs, especially with Jacob deGrom coming back from injury. If Hal Steinbrenner is in go-for-it mode, meanwhile, Verlander could help put the Yankees over the top as he returns from Tommy John surgery. The two-time Cy Young winner was an important influence on Gerrit Cole when they were together in Houston, and that could be a good reason as well after Cole finished the season in a funk.

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