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Texas Recruiting Notes 2025: Duck Around and Find Out


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52 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

That was my thought, too.  
 

Looks like a similar body type to Lance Jackson.  I thought the Kwiatkowski defense tended to favor a bigger (more lengthy) DE paired with one a little more fast twitch on the other side.  

I’m thinking that the floor has gone up, if not the ceiling.  Fifth year veterans like Bill Norton probably offer better 2026 value than all but the most elite high school prospects.  

Norton was viewed as a one and done role player, which is what they got. He made low 6 figures. I'm not sure it's going to be much different for that type this cycle. Graham and Grant could have either picked up $750k in the portal. They were retained for slightly less than that. That is going to be around the ceiling for DTs this time too. If an AA enters the portal somewhere, maybe the number goes to $1M, but I doubt it. I just don't see a lot of inflation.

 

9 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

Also, it's OB. 

Blind squirrels still find acorns and broken clocks are still right a couple of times each day.

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12 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Norton was viewed as a one and done role player, which is what they got. He made low 6 figures. I'm not sure it's going to be much different for that type this cycle. Graham and Grant could have either picked up $750k in the portal. They were retained for slightly less than that. That is going to be around the ceiling for DTs this time too. If an AA enters the portal somewhere, maybe the number goes to $1M, but I doubt it. I just don't see a lot of inflation.

 

Blind squirrels still find acorns and broken clocks are still right a couple of times each day.

Norton was nails during the goal line stand this past Saturday.. him knocking over their Center into making the RB stop his momentum was fantastic. 

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1 minute ago, Thiefery said:

Norton was nails during the goal line stand this past Saturday.. him knocking over their Center into making the RB stop his momentum was fantastic. 

Yeah, I said he was a solid "double" from the portal for the program up the thread. He's still a role player offering limited snaps each game.

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11 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

If an AA enters the portal somewhere, maybe the number goes to $1M, but I doubt it. I just don't see a lot of inflation.

Well, in support of your argument (and as a rebuttal against mine), there’s likely donor fatigue all around the big schools and a transfer DT from the Big 12 isn’t likely to have a lot of appeal as a promotional partner to someone like Lamborghini Austin.  

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50 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Sharma and Mbatchou both have moved into multiple decommit territory, imo lowering the probability of becoming a high value impact player over time. Although I do recall vaguely that Mbatchou was a high character player, so maybe he still pans out. Who knows. 

Sharma called up the coaches at UT, Bama and Oregon the night before to inform them he would be committing to us the next morning.  Overnight, Oregon magically persuades him to change his mind and Sharma commits to the Ducks.  Later in the process, we apparently at least matched the Ducks offer and he flipped to us.  Months later, on the doorstep of signing day, he visits Troy and seems about to flip to USC.  He seems an acolyte of the philosophy of pay me now, I'll worry about the rest of it later.

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14 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Norton was viewed as a one and done role player, which is what they got. He made low 6 figures. I'm not sure it's going to be much different for that type this cycle. Graham and Grant could have either picked up $750k in the portal. They were retained for slightly less than that. That is going to be around the ceiling for DTs this time too. If an AA enters the portal somewhere, maybe the number goes to $1M, but I doubt it. I just don't see a lot of inflation.

 

Blind squirrels still find acorns and broken clocks are still right a couple of times each day.

New name for the Surly tailgate band.

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When money got put on the table this shit got wild. Hard to really follow because you don't know which of your recruits some team is going to decide they want to make a break the bank offer to get. Kind of just waiting until Sunday to see where it all shakes out. I'm guessing we finish with around 26 in the class. Lose a couple, gain 4 or so. 

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52 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Norton was viewed as a one and done role player, which is what they got. He made low 6 figures. I'm not sure it's going to be much different for that type this cycle. Graham and Grant could have either picked up $750k in the portal. They were retained for slightly less than that. That is going to be around the ceiling for DTs this time too. If an AA enters the portal somewhere, maybe the number goes to $1M, but I doubt it. I just don't see a lot of inflation.

 

Blind squirrels still find acorns and broken clocks are still right a couple of times each day.

1M for an All American DT sounds fine- if that's your only hole from being a playoff team vs. not.  It's too bad we probably need more like 2 or 3 dudes there, that all probably need to be starter quality.  Needing a couple of WR's, a LB, a Corner (I'm guessing), Kicker, Punter and an OL (again- guessing they will want to get at least 1 if the entire line is gone) would have me believe they don't go AA or top of the market at that position, but if they want to I wouldn't complain.  
What's your portal number guess?  I've got 10 incoming.  

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4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

1M for an All American DT sounds fine- if that's your only hole from being a playoff team vs. not.  It's too bad we probably need more like 2 or 3 dudes there, that all probably need to be starter quality.  Needing a couple of WR's, a LB, a Corner (I'm guessing), Kicker, Punter and an OL (again- guessing they will want to get at least 1 if the entire line is gone) would have me believe they don't go AA or top of the market at that position, but if they want to I wouldn't complain.  
What's your portal number guess?  I've got 10 incoming.  

2-3 DT
1 RB, who knows when Baxter/Clark will be back and fully capable, assuming Blue doesn't come back for whatever reason.
1 or 2 WR, proven speedster type
1 K
1 P
1 safety, depending on Ttaaffee
1 CB
 

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9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

What's your portal number guess?  I've got 10 incoming. 

I’m again trying to read tea leaves, but if you think that retention is going to be expensive, and that depth is the difference maker between teams like Texas and A&M, then that argues for spreading the money around on a greater quantity of lower profile transfers than the Walter Nolan’s of the world.  10 is the under, especially with scholarship limits poised to increase.  

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3 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I’m again trying to read tea leaves, but if you think that retention is going to be expensive, and that depth is the difference maker between teams like Texas and A&M, then that argues for spreading the money around on a greater quantity of lower profile transfers than the Walter Nolan’s of the world.  10 is the under, especially with scholarship limits poised to increase.  

They'll need both at DT IMO especially considering our past 3 DT classes.

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Part of what I'd like to see in the DB portal work is finding a gunner. Kern isn't great but we're also suffering from losing two elite gunners. I thought the punt that got a touchback Saturday was actually pretty good and could have been downed inside the five if the guy timed his jump better. 

To me, this is much more important than signing DTs, so I am therefore not going to be saddened by the news of our pets heads falling off at all. I'm compartmentalizing the shit out of that and reserving any meltdowns for after our portal search for gunners. 

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Just now, Fud said:

I think we'll be fine

The issue is having to go big in the portal 2 years in a row and potentially 3 after next because we will be in same boat. We HAVE to load up on HS DT's in 2026 class and most will be from OOS because in state isn't very good that cycle. Can't keep relying on portal for x amount of years in a row to fill the whole group

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9 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Strong shot of being 0-5 on this one. Obviously I hope I am very wrong here.

10-ish sounds right. 

The Texas MO for the portal has not been to go nuts. Maybe that changes this cycle, but I doubt it.

-They'll likely add 3-4 DTs. Several of those will be role players. 

-1-2 WRs. I think these will be proven, productive P4 guys and at least one will be a burner.

-1 TE if they can find a star. If Niblack is back, plus the fact they like Washington a ton, and Townsend coming on board, maybe they stand pat here.

-0-1 TB. Just depends upon the health of CB and Clark.

-0-1 LB. There's a lot to like about who they're returning and who they're signing, but they find a guy that can play STs and fit into the rotation, this wouldn't be crazy. 

-2-3 DBs. We're going to see some DB attrition and they need DB depth and special teams help.

-1 P. I don't care if Kern is back or not, they need to try to improve this spot.

-1 K. Auburn ain't cutting it. 

I don't see losing enough OL to make it worth going after an OL. OLs are expensive - another key facet for having excellent, home-grown OL depth. I don't know why they'd feel it necessary to find another DE, given what is on campus and joining the roster.

They couldn't possibly need another DE I wouldn't think.  I have them getting an OL b/c I have Cam WIlliams gone (and have all year) and I think DJ goes as well. I don't see how he benefits from being the only returner coming back to a brand new line- it's so important to play as a cohesive unit that's one guy that I don't know actually improves his stock coming back- but if he doesn't come back then that frees up money for someone else and if he does we are paying him anyway, so... probably nets out at a wash either way.  

I think you are dead bang on with all the numbers and at exactly those positions. I think what's maybe more interesting is trying to asses the quality you need at each spot.

OL (if DJ is back)- you need a guaranteed above average player

WR- 1 star, 1 depth piece

TE- Pass- I love Washington though

TB- Pass (the incoming freshmen look good- I could see them taking one if Blue leaves which I'd suspect he will)- hit that in the spring if you get bad news on Baxter

LB- Depth piece

DB- 1 starter 2 depth pieces

K/P- Star. Even star shouldn't cost more than 100k each, right? Don't fuck around with shitty specialists on a team that you think is going to be really good- go get top of class guys at each place.

So- that leaves DT. I wasn't worried this year and hand waved away all the concerns. I was right to do so. Next year is terrifying. I think you need to bring in an all conference type plus another starter type plus a depth piece.  Other than WR for the star this would be my 2nd and 3rd highest paid portal guys. It's really bleak what's going on right there. I think we overstate a bit how important the position is (especially if the backers are good) but you don't want a fucking donut in the middle either. 

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I don't see DJ going....he's not getting anywhere near the hype that Cam is getting in terms of draft stock. He's split time this year and we'll need to see him do it by himself next year. 

Bobby projected our starting 5 to be this in one of the streams:

LT Goosby
LG Neto
C Hutson
RG Campbell
RT Baker

Edited by BurntOrange&White
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1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I don't see DJ going....he's not getting anywhere near the hype that Cam is getting in terms of draft stock. He's split time this year and we'll need to see him do it by himself next year. 

Bobby projected our starting 5 to be this in one of the streams:

LT Goosby
LG Neto
C Hutson
RG Campbell
RT Baker

That was my guess too.

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16 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Strong shot of being 0-5 on this one. Obviously I hope I am very wrong here.

Debbie Downer Snl GIF by Saturday Night Live


 

5 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Can't keep relying on portal for x amount of years in a row to fill the whole group

Why not? Is the portal going somewhere? This board has been screaming about HS DT’s for like 5 years in a row now. We somehow manage every time.

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9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

and I think DJ goes as well. I don't see how he benefits from being the only returner coming back to a brand new line- it's so important to play as a cohesive unit that's one guy that I don't know actually improves his stock coming back

That's.. a take 

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7 minutes ago, Lonestar88 said:

Debbie Downer Snl GIF by Saturday Night Live


 

Why not? Is the portal going somewhere? This board has been screaming about HS DT’s for like 5 years in a row now. We somehow manage every time.

Because we're running out of recruited 4th/5th year guys to fill the void. 

 

image.thumb.png.06daec3db72e350faec773494e2c1533.png

 

 

We are going to have to go huge in portal for another 2 years.

 

Now do you see why we've been screaming about HS DT's being recruited for so long now? It's fucking bleak. Especially with the way this cycle is winding down. 

 

Bryant and Bledsoe have to be considered bust at this point. At least last year Broughton showed improvement. 

So that leaves us with:

Sophomore Sydir who isn't an every down player
Alex January who should be good but will be a true sophomore
Melvin hills - Developmental



 

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23 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I don't see DJ going....he's not getting anywhere near the hype that Cam is getting in terms of draft stock. He's split time this year and we'll need to see him do it by himself next year. 

Bobby projected our starting 5 to be this in one of the streams:

LT Goosby
LG Neto
C Hutson
RG Campbell
RT Baker

Is Cruz not ready?

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23 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Bryant and Bledsoe have to be considered bust at this point. 

Do we really know that at this point, though?  Or could it be a situation in which they've simply been stuck behind older, more experienced DTs with NFL-level talent (Sweat, Murphy, Collins, Broughton) as well as older, more experienced portal additions (Lole, Norton, et al.), and they might actually show some ability once they're given a chance next season? 

I'm not arguing one way or the other -- I'm just questioning whether we can definitively label those two players busts in light of the circumstances I described.

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32 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Bryant and Bledsoe have to be considered bust at this point. At least last year Broughton showed improvement. 

Didn’t we say the same thing about Broughton?? 🤔

also Sarks not a dumbass, he’s proven over and over he knows what he’s doing. 
 

let’s relax 

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5 minutes ago, Carl Spackler said:

Do we really know that at this point, though?  Or could it be a situation in which they've simply been stuck behind older, more experienced DTs with NFL-level talent (Sweat, Murphy, Collins, Broughton) as well as older, more experienced portal additions (Lole, Norton, et al.), and they might actually show some ability once they're given a chance next season? 

I'm not arguing one way or the other -- I'm just questioning whether we can definitively label those two players busts in light of the circumstances I described.

Bledsoe's gone, so we can classify him as a bust. Bryant has ... not been good this year. I'll cling to the same hope as you and maybe something develops there. Mitchell is another one that may or may not be at Texas a week from now. If he sticks, he's crossing over into the territory where we might wind up having a player. 

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1 minute ago, D3zii said:

Didn’t we say the same thing about Broughton?? 🤔

also Sarks not a dumbass, he’s proven over and over he knows what he’s doing. 
 

let’s relax 

Broughton played a bunch prior to this year. Bledsoe and Bryant haven't. I'm sure Bledsoe has gotten on the field at some point in blowouts this year, but I don't remember seeing him on the field. 

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On 12/1/2024 at 11:26 AM, Red Five said:

Is Kern still inured? He is…. not great.

I'd say that's a legit question based on his performance since being hurt.  He started the season off somewhat shaky (CSU, Michigan), which is understandable given that he's a true frosh.  But then he seemed to be settling in (UTSA, ULM) and hitting the ball better.  Unfortunately, he got hurt right around the Mississippi State game.  Since coming back after the Georgia game, Kern just hasn't seemed explosive at all with his punts, so I wonder if whatever caused him to sit a couple games might still be affecting him on some level.

FWIW, I'm not sure that the blocked punt in the A&M game wasn't Kern's fault.  His protectors all blocked to their right and the left wing peeled off downfield and didn't bother to block, which would suggest that the call was for Kern to slide right and punt the ball on the move.  But Kern punted straight on, which allowed the rusher (who had free rein due to the left wing taking off) to easily get to the contact spot and practically take the ball off Kern's foot.  If that was the case, then it was a mental mistake on Kern's part.  It's either that or the wing completely fucked up.

The punting has definitely been subpar this season.  But I wouldn't panic.  Recall that Kern was considered one of the top 5 HS punters coming out of school, i.e., he has the requisite talent and leg.  It's reasonable to expect that he'll improve as he gets experience and completely recovers from whatever physical ailments he has.  Even the great Michael Dickson struggled his first season -- remember the snap against Okie Lite that went through Dickson's hands and hit him right in the facemask?  But Dickson improved dramatically after his first season and became arguably the greatest punter in UT history.  Am I suggesting that Kern is Dickson part deux?  Not at all.  I'm simply saying that it's reasonable to expect that Kern will improve.   

12 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Bledsoe's gone, so we can classify him as a bust. 

Ah, that's right.  I forgot that he left the program.

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12 minutes ago, Carl Spackler said:

I'd say that's a legit question based on his performance since being hurt.  He started the season off somewhat shaky (CSU, Michigan), which is understandable given that he's a true frosh.  But then he seemed to be settling in (UTSA, ULM) and hitting the ball better.  Unfortunately, he got hurt right around the Mississippi State game.  Since coming back after the Georgia game, Kern just hasn't seemed explosive at all with his punts, so I wonder if whatever caused him to sit a couple games might still be affecting him on some level.

FWIW, I'm not sure that the blocked punt in the A&M game wasn't Kern's fault.  His protectors all blocked to their right and the left wing peeled off downfield and didn't bother to block, which would suggest that the call was for Kern to slide right and punt the ball on the move.  But Kern punted straight on, which allowed the rusher (who had free rein due to the left wing taking off) to easily get to the contact spot and practically take the ball off Kern's foot.  If that was the case, then it was a mental mistake on Kern's part.  It's either that or the wing completely fucked up.

The punting has definitely been subpar this season.  But I wouldn't panic.  Recall that Kern was considered one of the top 5 HS punters coming out of school, i.e., he has the requisite talent and leg.  It's reasonable to expect that he'll improve as he gets experience and completely recovers from whatever physical ailments he has.  Even the great Michael Dickson struggled his first season -- remember the snap against Okie Lite that went through Dickson's hands and hit him right in the facemask?  But Dickson improved dramatically after his first season and became arguably the greatest punter in UT history.  Am I suggesting that Kern is Dickson part deux?  Not at all.  I'm simply saying that it's reasonable to expect that Kern will improve.   

Ah, that's right.  I forgot that he left the program.

Have we seen evidence that Kern has that kind of potential? I can't remember him hitting a punt over 35 yards.

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I think DJ goes as well. I don't see how he benefits from being the only returner coming back to a brand new line- it's so important to play as a cohesive unit that's one guy that I don't know actually improves his stock coming back

Aren't we paying DJ enough to dis-incentivize a 6th round draft contract?

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