Texas Recruiting Notes 2025: Duck Around and Find Out

[DixonHur 11,725]

Talk about 1st world problems ...we're currently sitting on the #1 recruiting class in the nation, according to 247, yet we still find a way to bitch about the players we didn't get.

[hookemATL 12,020]

1 minute ago, Getafix said:

 

 

 

 

 

Hutton seen as a swapout for Mills, or would he be a PWO here as well?

[irishtexan 11,613]

7 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Each commit has an actual value, so while the start system makes it look like all four stars are the same, the class ranking is based on the recruit's actual ranking value, which can vary quite a bit even within each star level.  

I understand, but it still doesn't seem to make much sense.  We have 9 in the top 100 (6 in the top 50) and 15 in the top 250. They have 7 in the top 100 (but all are in the top 50) and 14 in the the top 250. So I guess having three more top 100 commits puts us over the top. Whatever, I don't want to have to actually do math here. Just seems strange to me. 

[Red Five 41,195]

2 minutes ago, Getafix said:

 

 

 

 

 

Your typical top five.

[DixonHur 11,725]

3 minutes ago, Getafix said:

 

 

 

Breaking News:  Fasusi will likely sign with either Texas or blowU

[Park Gothic 5,231]

Just now, Red Five said:

Your typical top five.

But is he a good kid from a good family?

[DixonHur 11,725]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Your typical top five.

This list screams "package deal"

[chiu1040 88]

I understand, but it still doesn't seem to make much sense.  We have 9 in the top 100 (6 in the top 50) and 15 in the top 250. They have 7 in the top 100 (but all are in the top 50) and 14 in the the top 250. So I guess having three more top 100 commits puts us over the top. Whatever, I don't want to have to actually do math here. Just seems strange to me. 

There won’t an any question who has the better class after Justus Terry chooses.

[hookemATL 12,020]

3 minutes ago, hookemATL said:

Hutton seen as a swapout for Mills, or would he be a PWO here as well?

Edited 7 hours ago by hookemATL
offer list confirms my ignorance.

[Dbeasy 15,299]

Wow, I head to lunch with Sharma basically gone, and come back to a signed LOI.  Awesome. Obviously, someone squeezed the Sharma. In a good way.

[Professor Chesney 612]

23 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

They offered him over the top NIL last week. He then went and shopped it. Somewhere in there, Texas bowed out, agitating some folks by a great deal, but that shit happens every cycle. 

As in, agitating the agent that they couldn’t use Texas as a stalking horse or agitating the family in that they may actually have had to go with A&M?

[deech 2,336]

1 minute ago, DixonHur said:

Breaking News:  Fasusi will likely sign with either Texas or blowU

There are a lot of moving parts though so it could be anyone.

[TexasEx 1,697]

5 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Breaking News:  Fasusi will likely sign with either Texas or blowU

He went to bed last night having decided on OUsucks per Gerry on OTF live. Could change I suppose. 

[billfromlaketravis 11,647]

Fasusi would have been nice, but what matters is that aggy didn’t sign Fasusi and Rogers. They can’t rebuild their OL in a single class now.

[TexasEx 1,697]

Just now, deech said:

There are a lot of moving parts though so it could be anyone.

Situation is fluid. 

[DixonHur 11,725]

2 minutes ago, TexasEx said:

He went to bed last night having decided on OUsucks per Gerry on OTF live. Could change I suppose. 

Gerry nailed the Hilson pick, so let's see if he goes 2 for 2

[hookemATL 12,020]

2 minutes ago, deech said:

There are a lot of moving parts though so it could be anyone.

[Dondrysdale1 374]

Would be hilarious to offer the Hutton guy a scholarship I would imagine if all it takes is a scholarship that kid will no longer be a pwo for ou. But the meltdown if he were to choose Texas and we sign both with the ability to do so because mills left hahaha

Edited 7 hours ago by Dondrysdale1

[BurntOrange&White 40,785]

9 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Breaking News:  Fasusi will likely sign with either Texas or blowU

This was my favorite

[closetojumping 63,712]

20 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Do you know, and can/will you share in relative terms what “over the top” means in this case?  As far as a % increase over the previous number?  

Usually when that kind of stuff is thrown around, 50% or better. DK Moore went from a $750k guy to $1.25 overnight. Jayden Jackson went from $100k-ish in offers to OU coming in over the top for $400k in year one last year. One of the guys Auburn on the DL last year was a similar case. When Texas and programs like Michigan or Ohio State are saying "I'm out", you know something has gotten silly. Not saying that happened with DKM because it didn't, but it did with Hilson, JJackson, and a few Auburn signees last year. 

Another thing with Hilson is that this was like 3rd time that he decided to shop another offer. He may wind up being really good, but most often the third time is the strikeout for disciplined programs. 

2 minutes ago, chiu1040 said:

There won’t an any question who has the better class after Justus Terry chooses.

That's a true statement irrespective of who JTerry picks. He probably sets the #1 class and credit to Gerry for saying that he would last week, if so.

[Getafix 29,156]

5 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

I understand, but it still doesn't seem to make much sense.  We have 9 in the top 100 (6 in the top 50) and 15 in the top 250. They have 7 in the top 100 (but all are in the top 50) and 14 in the the top 250. So I guess having three more top 100 commits puts us over the top. Whatever, I don't want to have to actually do math here. Just seems strange to me. 

 

 

You're killing me, Irish.

 

The first spoilered article covers the mathematical method used.

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

• The Formula
• 
• where c is a specific team's total number of commits and R_n is the 247Sports Composite Rating of the nth-best commit times 100.
• Explanation
• In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating.
• Each recruit is weighted in the rankings according to a Gaussian distribution formula (a bell curve), where a team's best recruit is worth the most points. You can think of a team's point score as being the sum of ratings of all the team's commits where the best recruit is worth 100% of his rating value, the second best recruit is worth nearly 100% of his rating value, down to the last recruit who is worth a small fraction of his rating value. This formula ensures that all commits contribute at least some value to the team's score without heavily rewarding teams that have several more commitments than others.
• Readers familiar with the Gaussian distribution formula will note that we use a varying value for σ based on the standard deviation for the total number of commits between schools for the given sport. This standard deviation creates a bell curve with an inflection point near the average number of players recruited per team.
• Below is a graphical representation of how our formula works. You can see that the area under the curve gets smaller both as the rating for a commit decreases and as the number of total commits for a school increases. The y-axis in this graph represents the percentage weight of the score that gets applied to an overall team ranking.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is an example used to illustrate the method used (which I believe is consistent with the article above, but it's possible it was tweaked over time).

 

Spoiler

 

How Are 247 Recruiting Rankings Calculated?

As the college football regular season winds down, our busiest season is just beginning here at Cougar Sports Insider. The new early signing period has turned December

Casey LundquistDec 3rd, 2019, 9:34 AM2

 

 (Photo: BYU Photo, Jaren Wilkey)

As the college football regular season winds down, our busiest season is just beginning here at Cougar Sports Insider. The new early signing period has turned December into a recruiting frenzy. In-home recruiting visits kicked off on Sunday as multiple coaches met with some of the top remaining 2020 targets. Things move quickly in the recruiting world, but nobody covers the ups and downs better than our recruiting guru Jeff Hansen. We will cover everything you want to know and more as the final touches are placed on the 2020 recruiting class.

Today, I’ll walk you through the calculation behind the recruiting rankings that are used to compare recruiting classes across the country. Recruiting rankings are always a hot topic on signing day. Many BYU fans look at the recruiting rankings during Kalani Sitake’s tenure and conclude that recruiting is declining at BYU. In reality, a lot of information is packed into that single number that ranks all FBS schools from 1 to 130. When unpacked, you can understand the drivers behind the movement in the recruiting rankings. Having a basic understanding of recruiting rankings will help you understand where the coaching staff has succeeded and where there is room for improvement. Let’s get started!

First, the evaluation. Each recruit is given a composite rating (more commonly known as star rating) based on evaluations from 247, Rivals, and ESPN. As you probably know, players are given anywhere from a 2-star rating up to a 5-star rating. Following the evaluation, all recruits are grouped by the university to which they are committed. Each school is then given a total team score based on the star rating of each athlete that has pledged a commitment to their school.

Second, the calculation. This is the math portion – stick with me. I promise to be brief. The commitments are ranked from highest to lowest based on their star rating. The scores are weighted, based on the rankings, according to a Gaussian distribution formula or a bell curve. In other words, the top recruit is worth 100% of his rating value, the second commit is worth nearly 100% of his rating value, and down to the last recruit who is worth a small fraction of his rating value. This formula ensures that all commits contribute at least some value to the team's score without heavily rewarding teams that have several more commitments than others.

 

This is much easier to understand with an example.

 

In an earlier article, I outlined both the best and worst-case scenarios for the 2020 recruiting class. For our example, let’s use the best-case scenario from that article. The best-case scenario included the 20 existing commits and 6 other players. Those 6 players were Andrew Gentry, Tate Romney, Keanu Tanuvasa, Ace Kaufusi, Scotty Edwards, and Jake Griffin. Schools can’t sign more than 25 players per signing class, but at least 1 of the 26 will be asked to grey shirt and won’t be announced on signing day. With those 6 additions, BYU's total score jumped to 173. Here is how the 173 points were divided by player:

Andrew Gentry 27.22
Sol-Jay Maiava 16.52
Rocky Aitogi 14.91
Tate Romney 14.36
Keanu Tanuvasa 13.28
Bodie Schoonover 12.44
Bruce Garrett 10.45
Josh Wilson 9.63
Ace Kaufusi 8.75
Isaiah Tupou 7.61
Logan Pili 6.69
Preston Rex 5.81
Koa Eldredge 4.99
Devin Downing 4.18
Alex Muti 3.38
Dean Jones 2.8
Petey Tuipulotu 2.31
Terence Fall 1.87
Christopher Jackson 1.49
Scotty Edwards 1.18
Nukuluve Helu 0.88
Isaiah Perez 0.67
Josh Larsen 0.52
Jake Griffin 0.38
Sitalingi Havea 0.29
John Nelson 0.18
Total 173

 

Here is a visual of this example:

 

 

Like I mentioned above, the highest-rated recruits contribute more points to the total team score than the lower-rated recruits. Not just because their rating is higher, but also because they contribute a higher percentage of their rating than those commits with a lower ranking in the class. Here is the punchline: The top third of every class contributes most points to the team score, the middle third contributes some points to the team score, and the bottom third contributes very few points to the final team score. In our example, the top third contributed 74% of the 173 points:

 

 

Mathematically, the top 2/3 of every class contribute approximately 97% of the total score. In terms of total score, the bottom 1/3 is immaterial because it contributes only 3% of the total score. This is very relevant to BYU fans. The current coaching staff has improved the recruiting of the bottom third during their time at BYU. But, as we know, that does very little to improve the final recruiting ranking. For more information on that, you can read this article which debates whether recruiting has improved under Kalani Sitake.

If BYU were solely focused on improving their recruiting ranking, they would have to land more highly-rated guys with a composite score of .85 or higher. Getting more of these players would be great, but BYU is currently focused on elevating the floor rather than the ceiling. From my perspective, this is the right move. If BYU can elevate the floor from .80 to .82 or .83, it would increase depth across the program. It wouldn’t make a big difference in the rankings, but it would make a big difference on Saturday’s in the fall.

 

 

 

 

[Dbeasy 15,299]

KJ Lacey is an interesting QB take. Like others, I worried about his size and rating. However, it is interesting that this week he will likely become the leading passer in the history of the state of Alabama, has three title game appearances, and 1 or possibly two titles.  Those are pretty big stats.

[closetojumping 63,712]

8 minutes ago, Professor Chesney said:

As in, agitating the agent that they couldn’t use Texas as a stalking horse or agitating the family in that they may actually have had to go with A&M?

As in, some folks on the Texas side thought the juice was worth someone else's squeeze because of big boy SEC football and ATM somehow, yet again, being the waking sleeping giant. Fortunately, Hilson so badly didn't want to go to ATM that he chose Colombia, MO as a better alternative.

[TotallyLegit 3,073]

33 minutes ago, mop said:

That's a good point. I would think it is based on individual player's points, but I don't understand that math either if they have 5 more 4 stars than us.  

• Our average is higher than Georgia's, so without looking into it, I would assume that at least one of the following is true:
  • Our 5-stars are better than their 5-stars
  • Our 4-stars are better than their 4-stars
  • Our 3-stars are better than their 3-stars
• Even if our average weren't higher, 247, and maybe on3 too, weights the contribution of each recruit toward the team class score based not just on the recruit's rating but also on the recruit's rank among the recruits in that team's class. i.e., each recruit after the best recruit in the team's class contributes a smaller percentage of their rating to the team class score. e.g., on 247, Jonah Williams contributes 98 * 1 = 98 points to our class score. Kaliq Lockett contributes 98 * some number less than 1, Michael Terry III contributes 98 * some multiplier which is less than Kaliq Lockett's multiplier, and so on. The upshot of this is that, assuming two teams with an equal average, the recruiting sites consider the team composed of players rated 100 or 80 to be better than a team composed entirely of players rated 90. How closely this reflects the reality of the relationship between roster construction and success on the field is beyond me.

@irishtexan

Edited 7 hours ago by TotallyLegit

[Lonestar88 5,073]

2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

KJ Lacey is an interesting QB take. Like others, I worried about his size and rating. However, it is interesting that this week he will likely become the leading passer in the history of the state of Alabama, has three title game appearances, and 1 or possibly two titles.  Those are pretty big stats.

I don’t sweat the QB stuff because I don’t think we would’ve been able to land both Keelon Russell and Dia Bell. But we did land Lacey and Bell. That could easily be (and in my opinion, likely is) the better option.

[Vertigo 20,401]

4 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

KJ Lacey is an interesting QB take. Like others, I worried about his size and rating. However, it is interesting that this week he will likely become the leading passer in the history of the state of Alabama, has three title game appearances, and 1 or possibly two titles.  Those are pretty big stats.

Trifles. Give me the Anthony Richardson starter kit all day every day. Those guys are locks to be great.

[EverybodyGoDeep 46]

6 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

KJ Lacey is an interesting QB take. Like others, I worried about his size and rating. However, it is interesting that this week he will likely become the leading passer in the history of the state of Alabama, has three title game appearances, and 1 or possibly two titles.  Those are pretty big stats.

He is Bryce Young 2.0

[irishtexan 11,613]

Isn't Fasusi's signing ceremony starting now? 

[RoyalBevo21 831]

1 minute ago, irishtexan said:

Isn't Fasusi's signing ceremony starting now? 

Came here looking for the feed

[Kwix 2,368]

Refreshing Hayes Fawcett's feed to see if he spills it early again.

[Constant 6,817]

2 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

Isn't Fasusi's signing ceremony starting now? 

His best friend PWO to OU. I am hoping thats a good sign for myself. 

[Dondrysdale1 374]

1 minute ago, Kwix said:

Refreshing Hayes Fawcett's feed to see if he spills it early again.

Maybe if there is a delay edits are being created

[Vertigo 20,401]

25 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Talk about 1st world problems ...we're currently sitting on the #1 recruiting class in the nation, according to 247, yet we still find a way to bitch about the players we didn't get.

[Pato del Muerto 52,999]

1 minute ago, Constant said:

His best friend PWO to OU. I am hoping thats a good sign for myself. 

Per 9.95s we are talking with him about the same here

Edited 7 hours ago by Pato del Muerto

[Dondrysdale1 374]

Just now, Constant said:

His best friend PWO to OU. I am hoping thats a good sign for myself. 

I guess you didn’t catch the update above? Maybe too little too late but Texas is now recruiting said best friend

 

[satyanash 14,976]

 

[BurntOrange&White 40,785]

2 minutes ago, Constant said:

His best friend PWO to OU. I am hoping thats a good sign for myself. 

Good thing PWO's don't sign NLI's dumb bitch. Jk I really don't care if we land Fasusi or not at this point with A&M out. 

[Basil 762]

24 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

This list screams "package deal"

Are you a wizard?

[BurntOrangeBlooded15 1,644]

14 minutes ago, Saint Tacky said:

Hilson to Mizzou...allegedly. Whatever became of the DL from Houston Westside that left Texas and wound up at Mizzou? 

Jordan Elliott?  The one Harbaugh gave the worst cake in the fucking world to haha 

[Lonestar88 5,073]

He’s got Oklahoma stuff on his table.

[Hank Scorpio 17,860]

I’ve got $37 in my wallet, someone call Fasusi and tell him the offer just went up by $36 (I need $1 for the bus).  

[RoyalBevo21 831]

Just now, Lonestar88 said:

He’s got Oklahoma stuff on his table.

Where do you see the feed? 

[Lonestar88 5,073]

Just now, RoyalBevo21 said:

Where do you see the feed? 

Just a pic

 

[derpyhorndog 2,694]

2 minutes ago, BurntOrangeBlooded15 said:

Jordan Elliott?  The one Harbaugh gave the worst cake in the fucking world to haha 

[hornian 5,256]

Just now, Lonestar88 said:

He’s got Oklahoma stuff on his table.

Total psych out move if he picks UT. 

Total psycho move if he picks OU

[chiu1040 88]

He’s got Oklahoma stuff on his table.

Sometimes that’s the fake out. Because the real stuff is under the table.

[TotallyLegit 3,073]

1 minute ago, BurntOrangeBlooded15 said:

Jordan Elliott?  The one Harbaugh gave the worst cake in the fucking world to haha 

Harbaugh knew the kid was a gamer and got him a cake shaped like Stranglethorn Vale

[SquishMitten 10,466]

2 minutes ago, Lonestar88 said:

He’s got Oklahoma stuff on his table.

I'd be more concerned if he didn't

[Redneck Mutha 8,092]

Thread moves fast, not sure if I missed Zion Williams signed with LSU?

https://247sports.com/college/lsu/season/2025-football/commits/

Edited 7 hours ago by Redneck Mutha

[Park Gothic 5,231]

1 minute ago, Lonestar88 said:

Just a pic

 

I'm pretty much good with moving on, but I am curious - is this supposed to be a pic of the whole table? Like, are there other schools on there with little tchotchkes and shit or is it just OU?