Mass Casualty Tornado Event in Kentucky

[atomheartbevo 89,783]

1 hour ago, Deej said:

I bet my Scentsy rep is jacking her prices up. 

[Wally Pryor 5,262]

Jesus.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/11/weather/before-after-tornado-damage/index.html

[Wally Pryor 5,262]

TBD on this one but last F5 in December was 64 years ago.

Edited December 12, 2021 by Wally Pryor

[Chewy's Hairy Horn 868]

3 hours ago, HiggyBaby said:

That was terrible, we missed it thankfully but had friends in from out of town and canceled dinner plans because our sirens were going off in Plano. For those who don’t remember

 

 

 

 

 

Im in the White Rock area and was about to head out to an late lunch/early dinner with wife and then 1 year old that day.  Waiting for the wife to finish getting ready, I flipped on the TV and saw the weather.  Opted for a nice family dinner under the stairs instead.

[Wally Pryor 5,262]

Good stuff:

How the event came together 

The event was triggered by a powerful low-pressure system that lifted from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes. The low-pressure intensified as the polar jet stream, the high-altitude current along which storms track, plunged into the central United States ahead of a pulse of record-setting warmth. The same system ended a record-setting snowless streak in Denver and unloaded a foot of snow in Minneapolis. 

As a cold front attached to the zone of low pressure encountered the exceptionally warm, unstable air Friday evening, numerous thunderstorms erupted. With temperatures in the 70s to near 80, “[t]he atmosphere didn’t know it was December,” tweeted Craig Ceecee, a researcher in meteorology at Mississippi State University. Memphis soared to 79 degrees, 26 degrees above average, one of dozens of locations that reached record-high temperatures. 

Meanwhile, powerful winds at the jet stream level blew from a different direction than those lower to the ground, helping the thunderstorms rotate or become supercells. 

The rotating thunderstorm that spawned the quad-state tornado(es) developed from a cluster of storms over central Arkansas. These storm cells congealed to the east of the cold front, separate from any other storms that could compete for available energy or disrupt them. 

While passing through northeast Arkansas, the quad-state storm encountered an increasingly favorable tornadic environment, with extreme spin-inducing low-level winds.These ingredients remained in place as it tracked about 250 miles into western Kentucky. 

 

The Weather Service in Memphis issued the first tornado warning for the storm at 7:06 p.m. Central time, stating that a “confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado” had formed. The storm moved over Monette, Ark., where it severely damaged a nursing home, at 7:24 p.m. Central time. 

“This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION,” the Weather Service wrote. “TAKE COVER NOW.” 

Meteorologists observed an intense velocity “couplet” on radar, in which air racing in one direction clashes with air racing in another. A sign of rotation, the couplet seen on the quad-state storm was among the strongest observed by modern radar. 

The storm may have “cycled” once while passing over northwest Tennessee, a process in which the initial tornado dissipates and a new one develops. But by the time the storm hit Mayfield at 9:27 p.m., the radar signature again indicated a devastating tornado. 

Aside from the extreme rotation indicated by radar wind data, a dramatic debris signature was seen as the storm approached the Kentucky city. 

Not until after 11:30 p.m., when the storm was southwest of Louisville, did it stop rotating. 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/how-friday-night-e2-80-99s-rare-and-deadly-december-tornado-outbreak-unfolded/ar-AARIrrM

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

Im in the White Rock area and was about to head out to an late lunch/early dinner with wife and then 1 year old that day.  Waiting for the wife to finish getting ready, I flipped on the TV and saw the weather.  Opted for a nice family dinner under the stairs instead.

Belongs in the wives say/do smart things thread

[Knoxtnhorn 6,065]

14 hours ago, HiggyBaby said:

That was terrible, we missed it thankfully but had friends in from out of town and canceled dinner plans because our sirens were going off in Plano. For those who don’t remember

 

 

 

 

 

You can see my house in the first video.  Luckily for us, we didn't move to the area until the next year.  Most that died were on an overpasd at Bush and I-30.  They had no chance.

My daughter and I came through the next day.  I actually gasped when I went over the overpass having underestimated what I thought I'd see.  We stayed in a hotel within view of the area that was hit.  It's on a peninsula between Lake Ray Hubbard.  Looking across the lake each night, the only lights were on emergency and utility vehicles.  

[SurlyGator 873]

18 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Events like this bring to light the full dichotomy that is Surly.  I subscribe to both catalogs.

[66BUFF 2,565]

On 12/11/2021 at 10:06 AM, smuggs said:

That’s a lot of fucking candles.

Mrs. Hardwick is up to the task.

[Sandman 3,412]

Living in Oklahoma for the last 35 years has desensitized me when it come to this stuff. It's like Canadians and snow, I guess. 

[Helobious 9,464]

All weekend the Kentucky gov. said 70+ people died in the candle factory. Candle company is now saying 8 died, 8 are missing and everyone else is accounted for. Overall Kentucky death toll likely to top out around 75 or 80, far short of initial projections. Still a pretty fucking deadly tornado. 

[phdhorn 6,224]

On 12/11/2021 at 10:21 PM, Wally Pryor said:

Good stuff:

How the event came together 

The event was triggered by a powerful low-pressure system that lifted from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes. The low-pressure intensified as the polar jet stream, the high-altitude current along which storms track, plunged into the central United States ahead of a pulse of record-setting warmth. The same system ended a record-setting snowless streak in Denver and unloaded a foot of snow in Minneapolis. 

As a cold front attached to the zone of low pressure encountered the exceptionally warm, unstable air Friday evening, numerous thunderstorms erupted. With temperatures in the 70s to near 80, “[t]he atmosphere didn’t know it was December,” tweeted Craig Ceecee, a researcher in meteorology at Mississippi State University. Memphis soared to 79 degrees, 26 degrees above average, one of dozens of locations that reached record-high temperatures. 

Meanwhile, powerful winds at the jet stream level blew from a different direction than those lower to the ground, helping the thunderstorms rotate or become supercells. 

The rotating thunderstorm that spawned the quad-state tornado(es) developed from a cluster of storms over central Arkansas. These storm cells congealed to the east of the cold front, separate from any other storms that could compete for available energy or disrupt them. 

While passing through northeast Arkansas, the quad-state storm encountered an increasingly favorable tornadic environment, with extreme spin-inducing low-level winds.These ingredients remained in place as it tracked about 250 miles into western Kentucky. 

 

The Weather Service in Memphis issued the first tornado warning for the storm at 7:06 p.m. Central time, stating that a “confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado” had formed. The storm moved over Monette, Ark., where it severely damaged a nursing home, at 7:24 p.m. Central time. 

“This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION,” the Weather Service wrote. “TAKE COVER NOW.” 

Meteorologists observed an intense velocity “couplet” on radar, in which air racing in one direction clashes with air racing in another. A sign of rotation, the couplet seen on the quad-state storm was among the strongest observed by modern radar. 

The storm may have “cycled” once while passing over northwest Tennessee, a process in which the initial tornado dissipates and a new one develops. But by the time the storm hit Mayfield at 9:27 p.m., the radar signature again indicated a devastating tornado. 

Aside from the extreme rotation indicated by radar wind data, a dramatic debris signature was seen as the storm approached the Kentucky city. 

Not until after 11:30 p.m., when the storm was southwest of Louisville, did it stop rotating. 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/how-friday-night-e2-80-99s-rare-and-deadly-december-tornado-outbreak-unfolded/ar-AARIrrM

 

A few follow-ups to this FWIW, some related, some not directly (some of this subject to change as we learn more about this latest storm):

- Looks like this was not a "tornado outbreak" but rather a "tornado family."  What difference does it make?  Not a lot to the poor souls in harm's way, but meteorologically, an "outbreak" is an event of multiple tornadoes spawned from different storms (supercells).  This storm is looking pretty much like it's in the "tornado family" category, where one single storm can spawn multiple tornadoes, or retract and lower again.  All of this apparently was one horrible, single supercell (the Edwardsville storm was a separate one, so the "outbreak" was - 2 - for this event).  Anyway, this single storm regenerated itself over 200+ miles and threw down others - in the same storm.

- Despite this tornado complex, 2021 follows a 5 year run where the # of U.S. tornadoes is down compared to average.  1,192 U.S. tornadoes this year sure doesn't sound like "down", but it is.  And keep in mind over 93% of these tornadoes are EF1 or lower, a good bit also spawned out of hurricane landings.

- "Unheard of in December" - not quite, though definitely rare.  In 2019 an outbreak (multiple storms) across Southern LA, MS and AL spawned 40+ tornadoes.   Why did you not know about this?  Because "only" 3 people were killed - most of them were weaker and over non-inhabited land.  But that was December 16-17, 2019.  But winter tornadoes are not galactically rare.  Big, destructive ones like this is rare for December, although not meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) in general.

- The # of EF3 and stronger tornadoes between 1950 and today shows a downward turn of over 50%. 

- (Speaking of which, haven't caught up today, but original reports were that this tornado was "only" and EF3 but in the worst possible places for the most death/destruction.  However, I think NWS is requesting structural engineers/officials, and when they do that, they have reason to believe this might be in the EF4 or 5 category.  Should know in a day or so).

- One current argument is whether there has been at least a partial shift from the Great Plains to the Southeast.  Some say probably, others say no, either the area is expanding, or that they're better documented and hit a more densely populated Southeast so it seems like more.  Under further study.  But it seems that these Southeastern-shifting tornadoes are more destructive  - is this true? The answer is maybe.  Arguments for are that the terrain in the SE is hillier and the atmospheric conditions a little different than the drier Great Plains.  This can contribute to strength (or take away from it).  A second factor is that due to a closer proximity to the Gulf, these Southeastern tornadoes can last well into, or form during, the dark overnight hours.  Arguments against include: night time tornadoes are more dangerous because you can't see them, because people are usually "sitting ducks" (i.e. asleep and oblivious to their approach), and/or they're hitting into denser, more populated areas - hence death/damage, but over all not a stronger tornado.  Another argument against is that with everyone having video etc. handy, we are documenting far more tornadoes and storms than even 10 years ago.  They might seem to be more but perhaps they're just being recorded more.  Again, under study.  This one didn't hit in the wee hours, but certainly when people were winding down for the day - and of course it took several hours to unfold over the length of time.

In short, we don't know yet if the alley has shifted, grown larger, or is the same just better witnessed/documented, and in denser areas.  Under study.

- Finally, reliable tornado records only go back to about 1950.  Before that, the record is sketchy at best.  We just don't have much reliable info besides the ones that people saw and documented.  This is why the previous point "only" goes back to 1950.  It's when the Weather Service began to do stats.  Add to this that we know only a bit about how tornadoes form, never mind their relationship to the frequency and severity of supercell and other storm complexes.  In other words, "it's under study."   Tornado and hurricane research with regards to climate is still very, very immature; the science is relatively young, and there's not a ton of long-term info to rely upon - yet.

Edited December 13, 2021 by phdhorn

[Hate 20,141]

@phdhorn, you should join the discussion in the CR thread about this. 

 

[phdhorn 6,224]

2 hours ago, Hate said:

@phdhorn, you should join the discussion in the CR thread about this. 

Thanks, I'll take a pass.  I don't post in there.   It's a futile waste of time to me.  I like this thread because it sticks to the science or hard news (so far).  Hopefully it'll keep doing so.

[Hate 20,141]

Thanks, I'll take a pass.  I don't post in there.   It's a futile waste of time to me.  I like this thread because it sticks to the science or hard news (so far).  Hopefully it'll keep doing so.

It’s been remarkably civil. I’ve only been called a moron once for posting facts.

[High Plains Drifter 11,050]

2 hours ago, Hate said:

It’s been remarkably civil. I’ve only been called a moron once for posting facts.

 

For the record, that wasn't me.

 

Anyway, my grandparents had a farm in N. Texas that I would spend summers at. Probably averaged a night or two in the cellar per summer, although most were false alarms or being overly cautious.  Still, being 10 or so and woken up in the middle of the night and having to run through a storm to the cellar is some scary shit. They had a battery-powered radio that would go off with a siren when there was a warning/alert. Closest actual tornado was a few hundred yards away that uprooted a few trees in the pecan orchard. Not sure how big/powerful it was, but it was fucking loud. Like a train running over the top of the storm cellar loud.

I honestly don't know if a cellar like they had would be enough to survive something like this.

 

 Anybody know of any charities that would directly help the victims?

 

 

 

 

[phdhorn 6,224]

Here's a good article that appeared today by no less than NPR detailing why the whole severe weather/climate scientific linkage is lacking. (P.S. I make it my habit to NOT EVER discuss political topics in the main weather threads - I ignore anything that pops up there - and if I do ever discuss it, it'll be in Daily Texan which WON'T have to be moved to CR.  But the whole discussion usually quickly gets bogged down by shitheads who know nothing about it (which is okay) then just "think" it's this way or that and shit on others who don't.  No fucking thanks.  Take that shit to the pigsty).  Anyway, this is a pretty good layman's article....

https://www.npr.org/2021/12/13/1063676832/the-exact-link-between-tornadoes-and-climate-change-is-hard-to-draw-heres-why

Basically it says what I posted yesterday... just too much not known.  This is the real answer, and if you see anyone quoted who says "definitely!" or "definitely not!" they're carrying some kind of agenda, period, and are likely to be funded by some political group to get results. (Hint:  the best places to go are impartial (for the most part) orgs, like NWS, National Severe Storms Center, etc. - stay away from "Institute for Climactic Oopsie" or "Association for Climate Never Don't Ever Change".)  Stick to (in general) impartial university or govt' sources).

We don't know enough yet, how things directly contribute to changes in tornado strength, frequency, and geography.  This doesn't mean it's not possible (see the last sentence in the article).  But for now, the science doesn't prove it.  The rest of the argument (not NPR's here, the general public/political one) after that is bullshit.  Anyhow, here's an excerpt:

Quote

Scientists know that warm weather is a key ingredient in tornadoes and that climate change is altering the environment in which these kinds of storms form. But they can't directly connect those dots, as the research into the link between climate and tornadoes still lags behind that of other extreme weather events such as hurricanes and wildfire.

That's at least in part due to a lack of data — even though the U.S. leads the world in tornadoes, averaging about 1,200 a year.

Less than 10% of severe thunderstorms produce tornadoes, which makes it tricky to draw firm conclusions about the processes leading up to them and how they might be influenced by climate change, Harold Brooks, a tornado scientist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory, told The Associated Press.

Other factors that make that climate change attribution difficult include the quality of the observational record and the ability of models to simulate certain weather events. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says that's the case with tornadoes.

"The observational record is not consistent and relatively short, the models remain inconclusive as to replicating tornado activity, and our understanding of how global warming and climate change will influence the different atmospheric processes that produce tornadoes (wind shear, for example) is more limited," reads a page on its website.

While scientists may not be able to conclusively connect tornado frequency or intensity to human-caused climate change, they say there are signs pointing in that direction.

This tornado storm was "only" one (again, the Edwardsville storm was the only other separate supercell (so far that we know) that produced a tornado - the rest of the line up and down didn't).   But this "single" storm was awful, terrible, and although it "only" skimmed 1-2 towns, it hit Mayfield in almost the worst time and place, and the death toll was exceptionally higher.  Tragic.

Someone asked about donations - Here's an article listing most of them.

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/local/2021/12/11/how-help-mayfield-kentucky-communities-affected-tornadoes-fundraisers-donations/6477051001/

 

 

 

 

Edited December 14, 2021 by phdhorn

[mulletpelini 5,216]

On 12/13/2021 at 3:57 PM, phdhorn said:

- One current argument is whether there has been at least a partial shift from the Great Plains to the Southeast. 

I grew up in a world where we averaged a tornado in the county 1 per month in the main summer months.  I'd bet we've averaged one per year in the county if that in the past 20.

I believe it was 2018 through the 3rd week in April, considered the consensus "deadliest week of the year" regarding tornadoes, and in the states of Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma there were a combined 8 tornadoes to that point in the year.  Through the exact same time in the state of Georgia?  123.

It's shifted.

[Francisco 2.0 32,422]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Deej 76,902]

[Gatorubet 30,294]

Holy shit.

Wait for the lightning strike.